The Case For Rajon Rondo

Since the beginning of the season I have been tracking various statistical metrics of different players to get a better feel for their overall contribution to the team. I really like all of the players on the Celtics but my favorite players are Kendrick Perkins and Rajon Rondo. I have already presented the case for Perk. Now it is time to present the case for Rajon Rondo.

The year he was drafted he was not on my radar scope. I really had no idea who this kid was. I checked out his stats at Kentucky and concluded that he was a player skilled in several areas but not necessarily a great player at anything in particular.

It seemed strange to me that Boston would draft another point guard because Delonte was being groomed for the position and we also had the trade that brought us Telfair. I was thinking ok..where does Rondo fit in.

Here we are 3 years removed form the 2006 NBA draft with answers to all of our questions. Rondo has not only met my expectations but exceeded them far beyond my wildest dreams. Simply put.. the kid is a stud at point guard.

He has a cocky, I can beat you at anything, personality that has taken some time to evolve into the best floor general on the Celtics since Bob Cousy. This kid has done things that I have never seen before. Part of it is certainly due to his extraordinary physical gifts like those long arms and hands as big as meat cleavers or his cartoon like speed and quickness with the ball. What is it that makes the sum of his parts exceed his individual attributes?

The passing

He can throw every conceivable pass there is with either hand at any speed. How about the bullet pass he threw with his left hand while palming the ball to an open teammate. I have never seen that one before. How about his uncanny ability to hit guys anywhere on the court while driving through the middle at neckbreak speed? The bounce passes, the shoulder passes the lobs, the behind the back feeds, the drop downs, and the look around's. his court vision is extraordinary and he does not just pass the ball to open teammates. That is not really a skill. Rondo has perfected the ability to pass the ball to teammates at the precise time and location that gives them the optimum opportunity to score. Now that my friend is an above average point guard skill.

The drives

Every players in the NBA and every fan, every official, and every vendor in the stands knows that he is just not going to take a lot of outside shots. He is going to use his ball handling skills with either hand, his change of pace and his determination to drive to the basket for layups or hit open teammates with passes. Despite this nobody can stop him from doing that. You are not suppose to be able to move that fast. But Rondo can.

The Steals

He is a sniper on defense, like a cobra waiting to strike. Mess with the ball and he will take it from you. You think you have an open [passing lane or an easy lob.. think again Rondo plays the passing lanes like an NFL cornerback and with those long arms an huge hands he is like a guy wearing a catcher's mitt.

The rebounds

Some guys are great rebounders because they simply have big time hops. Some guys are great rebounders because they understand the art of rebounding position. Some guys are great rebounders because they are quicker to the ball. Some guys are great rebounders because they are tenacious. My friends, young Rondo encompasses all of these skills and that is why he is a tremendous rebounder.

The ultimate measurement

As I said earlier in this post, I have been tracking some statistical data. I think the true measure of Rondo's abilities and performance can only be realized when you compared them to the competition that he has played against.

Through 20 games the numbers do not lie

Rondo FG% 54% FT% 41% PPG 11.1, APG 9.0, RPG 3.9, SPG 2.6, TO's 2.45
Others FG% 49% FT% 66% PPG 12.2 APG 5.5. RPG 3.0. SPG 1.0, TO's 2.70

Rondo has clearly dominated the competition and the scoring average difference is surprisingly insignificant. More work at the line will make that difference go away.

Rondo is already one of the best Point guards in the NBA and he is still getting better.

dboss

dboss

to add a small thing is his "stealth" layup shot. The one he flips up from low and gets it off just in time so as not to be blocked and he does this from nearly every conceivable angle and at every conceivable speed.

beat

Numbers don't lie???? It brings to mind the famous quote..... there are "lies, damn lies and statistics."

Until Rondo can convert his FT's at an acceptable rate in the neighborhood of 70%, I cannot, as much as I love this freak of nature, consider him an elite PG.

Too much crack I guess!

crackhead

GA, too much crack indeed! First you imply that statistics do not tell the whole story, but then you use a free throw statistic to show that Rondo is not an elite PG? Hmmm...

I certainly agree that Rondo would be better if he could hit free throws more consistently, but I disagree that this one facet of his game should exclude him from being in the elite PG category.

GC,

You could do me a favor by answering some questions.

First, exactly what is an "elite PG?" What's the precise definition? What set
of criteria must be satisfied, and what weight should be place on each
criterion?

Second, let's set up the additional questions by supposing (hypothetically) that:

• a team is playing .800 ball, is first in its conference, is just half a game behind the best record in the league DESPITE having gone through a very rough patch;

• the starters on that team are just blowing away their competition on a regular basis;

• the starting PG is being given huge credit from all observers for being a major catalyst (arguably THE major catalyst) in enabling near-maximum output from virtually every starter in virtually every game;

• one hallmark of their success is the consistent ability to close out games;

• the PG's current game doesn't involve his taking a lot of free throws and he's recently making roughly half of those he takes.

My remaining question is actually twofold:

(1) Can you specify for me exactly how far BELOW your definition of an "elite" PG an occasional free throw miss and missed jumper places him?

(2) Why does it matter a damn (especially on a team that obviously has the killer instinct in closing out games)?

Sam

P.S. Bonus question: Can you list all the "elite players" who are absolutely perfect and without a single wart that MIGHT some day cost their teams a game or more?

Just curious. Because, by my math, let's say Rondo averages three FTs a game (a little high, but what the heck). Over the course of 10 games, if he shoots 50%, he'll score 15 FT points. If he shoots 70%, he'll score 21 FT points. So his team will lose six-tenths of a point per game if he shoots the lower percentage.....the "price" of enjoying the benefit of one of the most dynamic catalysts in the league. How far below "elite" status would that place him?

Sam

KellyGreen17 wrote:GA, too much crack indeed! First you imply that statistics do not tell the whole story, but then you use a free throw statistic to show that Rondo is not an elite PG? Hmmm...

I certainly agree that Rondo would be better if he could hit free throws more consistently, but I disagree that this one facet of his game should exclude him from being in the elite PG category.

KG: I get to use my stats to lie too.... that seems only fair enough.

From my crack addled perspective, being unable to hit FT's will surely effect a PG's aggressiveness at crunch time.

Has there ever been what you would consider an elite PG who shot FT's in only the 50 to 60% range?

crackhead

Sam wrote:GC,

You could do me a favor by answering some questions.

First, exactly what is an "elite PG?" What's the precise definition? What set
of criteria must be satisfied, and what weight should be place on each
criterion?

Second, let's set up the additional questions by supposing (hypothetically) that:

• a team is playing .800 ball, is first in its conference, is just half a game behind the best record in the league DESPITE having gone through a very rough patch;

• the starters on that team are just blowing away their competition on a regular basis;

• the starting PG is being given huge credit from all observers for being a major catalyst (arguably THE major catalyst) in enabling near-maximum output from virtually every starter in virtually every game;

• one hallmark of their success is the consistent ability to close out games;

• the PG's current game doesn't involve his taking a lot of free throws and he's recently making roughly half of those he takes.

My remaining question is actually twofold:

(1) Can you specify for me exactly how far BELOW your definition of an "elite" PG an occasional free throw miss and missed jumper places him?

(2) Why does it matter a damn (especially on a team that obviously has the killer instinct in closing out games)?

Sam

P.S. Bonus question: Can you list all the "elite players" who are absolutely perfect and without a single wart that MIGHT some day cost their teams a game or more?

Just curious. Because, by my math, let's say Rondo averages three FTs a game (a little high, but what the heck). Over the course of 10 games, if he shoots 50%, he'll score 15 FT points. If he shoots 70%, he'll score 21 FT points. So his team will lose six-tenths of a point per game if he shoots the lower percentage.....the "price" of enjoying the benefit of one of the most dynamic catalysts in the league. How far below "elite" status would that place him?

Sam

It might be a good idea to throw this question out for lots of responses.

The C's are 16 and 4. Agreed. Their 16 wins have come against many quite inferior teams with winning percentages last time I calculated at under 40% and they have hardly been closing folks out with authority. On occasion they have. They did last night and against the Bobcats too. The night before, the Spurs just about caught them... as did Miami if my memory serves me correctly. Prior to the roadtrip, the C's hit quite a flat spot in the road and Rondo looked "out of sorts" to put it mildly.

When I think elite, I think Cousy-like, a model of consistency, unselfishness, fearlessness, creativity, a well rounded game, hustle and clutch performance. There may be more qualities for sure. Even Cousy no doubt had a few warts.

I can no more define "elite" than the Supreme Court can define "obscene"... but I, like the justicies in their black robes, typically know it when I see it.

Rondo is not elite at this time. He is inconsistent, has no mid-range game to speak of and his FT's speak for themselves.

Let the debate rage on!!!

GC

GC

He does things that are original to him. He seems to be
PLAYING with very good point guards around the nba. Like a cat and a mouse.

When he is on we are unbeatable. But he is a weird bird.

GC,


I guess I've just never been a fan of labeling. But I'm learning.

In other words, K.C. Jones (with a .387 lifetime field
goal percentage and a .647 FT percentage) could
never be an "elite" model despite being in the Hall of Fame. D.J. could never
be an "elite" model because he wasn't at all a prototypical PG although he
played the position successfully against great teams. Cousy himself (with a.375 FG percentage) could
never be an "elite" model especially because,
when he joined the league, his PG attributes were considered decidedly
nontraditional. And Rondo could never wind up carving out his own version of a nontraditional model of a possibly flawed but very successful guard.



Because all those old guys had in common was knowing how use their
strong points to win (16 NBA championship rings...17 if you count
Rondo). It always seemed to me that it was what they HAD, not what they did NOT have, that won all those championships.


Sam

Sam wrote:GC,


I guess I've just never been a fan of labeling. But I'm learning.

In other words, K.C. Jones (with a .387 lifetime field
goal percentage and a .647 FT percentage) could
never be an "elite" model despite being in the Hall of Fame. D.J. could never
be an "elite" model because he wasn't at all a prototypical PG although he
played the position successfully against great teams. Cousy himself (with a.375 FG percentage) could
never be an "elite" model especially because,
when he joined the league, his PG attributes were considered decidedly
nontraditional. And Rondo could never wind up carving out his own version of a nontraditional model of a possibly flawed but very successful guard.



Because all those old guys had in common was knowing how use their
strong points to win (16 NBA championship rings...17 if you count
Rondo). It always seemed to me that it was what they HAD, not what they did NOT have, that won all those championships.


Sam

Sam, you are not learning about labeling from me. You've got me confused with someone else.

And I am not about to say what Rondo could or could not ever do. The sky is the limit for this kid. He is a legitimate freak of nature, just like KG. Neither draws an obvious comparison... which is usually a sign of potential greatness.

Whether or not I will ever feel that he is an elite PG time and performance will tell. I've got an open mind. He certainly needs to round out his game and come to play night in and night out for a long, long time... just as others you mentioned have done who have worn the green uniform. And he needs to collect a handful of rings too.

He certainly plays for what I feel is an elite organization, something we can probably agree on without further ado.

Show me, Rondo. Develop a serviceable midrange game and don't pass up the open shot.

Hit your FT's so that you are not hacked to death with the game on the line.

Play hard every night using all the other unique skills God has given you.

Make me proud that you are wearing green by never forgetting that it is all about team... and I'm your biggest fan.

GC

GC,

The point is that I've named guys who succeeded very well without having every asset in the book. It happens. KC Jones passed up loads of open shots. It happens. Bill Russell wasn't a good free throw shooter. It happens. I already preempted end of game comments by suggesting that this team is consistently closing out games as a with a pretty good killer instinct as a team. Have you seen Rondo hacked at the end of games? I haven't. Teams can work around potential problem areas as long as the players are performing well in their specialty areas.

Maybe at some point they'll lose a game because Rondo misses a free throw in the clutch, and I won't need a reminder if ans when that happens because I'm prepared to respond with an onslaught of references to games when it hasn't happened. They've lost a number of games because Paul Pierce has missed free throws in the clutch. It happens. Players aren't perfect and don't need to be perfect to complement one another in forming a dominating collective. That's where the terms "role" and "complementary" are important.

Red Auerbach was arguably the shrewdest architect of teams. His philosophy was to pick players for those aspects of the game in which they excelled—not for their "well-roundedness." He focused on what specialties each player could contribute to a collective whole that would dominate as a TEAM.

People told him Russ couldn't shoot. It didn't matter to Red because Russ could get them the ball. Sam Jones could shoot. Bob Cousy could pass. DJ could defend. Paul Silas could rebound. They all had other attributes (just as Rondo has penetrating and defensive attributes), but it was their specialties that mattered most to Red.

None of this means that Rondo shouldn't work hard to improve in all areas or shouldn't hustle at all times. But the ability on which he should be primarily judged on is his specialty—being a catalyst in distributing the ball. If he's "elite" (whatever that means) at that facet of the game and Pierce and Ray are "elite" at scoring and KG and Perk are "elite" at defense and rebounding, etc., that's what creates collective, complementary domination, and that's what counts. Assessments of an individual player's "eliteness" or rankings based on some exhaustive checklist perhaps titillates fans but is not all that relevant otherwise.

Because it's all about the team.

Sam

GC

I appreciate your responses to this thread but..

I guess you must have overlooked the comment I made about free throw shooting.

The point of my exercise was not to suggest that Rondo walks on water.

I spent a lot of time gathering theses stats because I was curious to see how 20 other point guards in the league played against Rondo and the Celtics. Rondo is not the best all around point guards in the NBA but I would venture to say that he is one of the best NBA point guards.

We can all look at the numbers for Rondo as well as all other players in the league but the information I have gathered gives us an idea of what to expect from opposing PG's when they play the Celtics. It tells us that on average Rondo will outplay his opponent.

Rondo has miles to go before the finished product has been delivered. I see him struggling at the line to make freebies or pull up and take that jumper (although recently we have seen a willingness to do that ) He is not perfect but in the big picture he has proven to be the perfect point guard for THIS team.

dboss

dboss wrote:GC

I appreciate your responses to this thread but..

I guess you must have overlooked the comment I made about free throw shooting.

The point of my exercise was not to suggest that Rondo walks on water.

I spent a lot of time gathering theses stats because I was curious to see how 20 other point guards in the league played against Rondo and the Celtics. Rondo is not the best all around point guards in the NBA but I would venture to say that he is one of the best NBA point guards.

We can all look at the numbers for Rondo as well as all other players in the league but the information I have gathered gives us an idea of what to expect from opposing PG's when they play the Celtics. It tells us that on average Rondo will outplay his opponent.

Rondo has miles to go before the finished product has been delivered. I see him struggling at the line to make freebies or pull up and take that jumper (although recently we have seen a willingness to do that ) He is not perfect but in the big picture he has proven to be the perfect point guard for THIS team.

dboss

dboss:

No I did not overlook your FT comment. Your post was quite thorough and balanced. If anyone is out of balance, it is yours truly.

I am the one obsessed with the poor FT shooting simply because it is IMHO simply inexcusable. It is very difficult for me to respect any NBA player who cannot hit 2/3rd of his FT's minimum. I also have other hangups.... as you may find out but self-pride should dictate that the player master the art of FT shooting... if nothing else. (There needs to be an Al Anon for poor FT shooters.)

I can overlook a lot of things but that fly in the ointment really stands out and will be exploited at a most inopportune time again and again and again until the problem is corrected or the player is history.

GC

Maybe Rondo should practice the underhand

Sam wrote:GC,

The point is that I've named guys who succeeded very well without having every asset in the book. It happens. KC Jones passed up loads of open shots. It happens. Bill Russell wasn't a good free throw shooter. It happens. I already preempted end of game comments by suggesting that this team is consistently closing out games as a with a pretty good killer instinct as a team. Have you seen Rondo hacked at the end of games? I haven't. Teams can work around potential problem areas as long as the players are performing well in their specialty areas.

Maybe at some point they'll lose a game because Rondo misses a free throw in the clutch, and I won't need a reminder if ans when that happens because I'm prepared to respond with an onslaught of references to games when it hasn't happened. They've lost a number of games because Paul Pierce has missed free throws in the clutch. It happens. Players aren't perfect and don't need to be perfect to complement one another in forming a dominating collective. That's where the terms "role" and "complementary" are important.

Red Auerbach was arguably the shrewdest architect of teams. His philosophy was to pick players for those aspects of the game in which they excelled—not for their "well-roundedness." He focused on what specialties each player could contribute to a collective whole that would dominate as a TEAM.

People told him Russ couldn't shoot. It didn't matter to Red because Russ could get them the ball. Sam Jones could shoot. Bob Cousy could pass. DJ could defend. Paul Silas could rebound. They all had other attributes (just as Rondo has penetrating and defensive attributes), but it was their specialties that mattered most to Red.

None of this means that Rondo shouldn't work hard to improve in all areas or shouldn't hustle at all times. But the ability on which he should be primarily judged on is his specialty—being a catalyst in distributing the ball. If he's "elite" (whatever that means) at that facet of the game and Pierce and Ray are "elite" at scoring and KG and Perk are "elite" at defense and rebounding, etc., that's what creates collective, complementary domination, and that's what counts. Assessments of an individual player's "eliteness" or rankings based on some exhaustive checklist perhaps titillates fans but is not all that relevant otherwise.

Because it's all about the team.

Sam

Sam great post how Red knew how to get players to play to their strengths forming a collective as a team that could win and dominate and that all players had their warts.I still remember watching Cowens in his second year with my dad,team lost in playoffs and C's had nobody to match up with Debusshere,Kuberski and Nelson just couldn't get it done.Then the next year remember my dad telling me we got Paul Silas now,hes gonna help Cowens,my dad and I were glued to television everytime Knicks played the Celtics....those were the best of times and games.

On Rondo I remember being at the Meadowlands two years ago and was so looking forward to seeing the Rondo-Kidd match up as well as Pierce and Vince Carter,well Rondo totally exceeded my expectations as Jason Kidd seemed to grow old that night right before my eyes.On the opening possesion Rondo slapped the ball out of Kidds hand as he was trying to bring the ball up,then as soon as Nets took the ball out Rondo had Kidd pinned on the sideline and he slapped it out again as Kidd this time tried to pass.For the rest of the game Kidd needed screens just to bring the ball upcourt.....then in the halfcourt I remember not once did Kidd try to drive on Rondo without a pick,so without a pick the whole game the great Kidd just stayed outside with the ball dribbling looking to pass from outside.We totally crushed Nets as Pierce also had a great game,but Rondo was most dominant player,but the stats did not show that.

I want to see Rondo go against Jennings and Ty Lawson,see those matchups against the new speed demons in town,it seems whenever Chris Paul or Tony Parker go against other teams they are always the fastest,quickest players on the floor,but they both look a step slow and flustered because of that vs Rondo.I can find dozens of points with better FT% and midrange shot than Rondo,but would I want them over Rondo?I don't think so.The interesting thing about Rondo is as much as he has improved,its still his strengths that hes learning how to use better and better,hopefully once he's hit that midrange shot enough and has confidence in it....WOW thats gonna be scary.Doc has got to tell him to take that shot all the time,damn the misses,if he can hit that by time playoffs start.....

cow

Interesting debate that has shaped up here; good points all around.

My take is I don't know what elite is either, although I love GC's Supreme Court analogy. I also know it when I see it and I see Rondo as "getting there". I think part of the test is performing at a level higher than your peer group over a number of seasons and it's simply too soon for that one. Give him another year at his current level, or another great playoff run and then we may be there.

To be fair, Steve Nash is often referred to in elite terms and I agree. Yet Nash is a real matador on defense.

I think the big positives with Rondo are that he's way ahead of the curve defensively and passing has become a real strength.

Lies, damn lies and statistics...I had a statistics professor who used to say that. When I look at the stats line put up by dboss (thanks dboss, great work as you always do) I see it as being pretty close, with Rondo exceeding in assists and rebounds while falling way too short from the charity stripe.

Personally, I think the critics way overdo the obsession over Rondo's mid-range game. I don't think it's an absolute that a point guard has to excel there when he has other strong attributes. I do agree that his free-throw shooting needs to improve because Rondo will increasingly be the guy with the ball at crunch time. This is, of course, true of the point guard position in general.

On a side note Rondo is becoming one of my big favorites, and I think among the most exciting players in the league.

I'm agreeing with GC on this much, however; he's just not quite yet elite.

Regards

NYCelt

Yet there are many games 5 this year at least when he is the most influential player on the court. Including 3 hof guys on our team and whoever the other guy has. I get the feeling he has another gear. He seems to be toying with opponents.

jeb,

I do agree with you, he seems to be toying with opponents like a cat might toy with a mouse. But in Rondo's case I think the mouse might sometimes still be able to get away. If we're going with the animal kingdom here I think Rondo still needs to add "smart as a fox" to his bag of tricks in that scenario.

Like I say, he's one of my favorites. I'm going with GC's feeling on elite status partly because I think free-throws are a must for the point guard position and partly because I feel there must be an element of performance over time. I'm not even certain of how much time, but I don't think two years is enough.

Regards

NY C

I LIKE the fact that he has a chip on his shoulder as well. I just think he is a gym rat and a gamer. I'll take his weakness cause we get his strength. I think he can make the difference for us against the Lakes. He will wear Fisher out. Orlando does not scare me so much. They lack a mean streak. Cavs are one man show. Hawks are just young enough not to be scared. They are worrisome. The Lakes are huge but not deep. KG slows Gasol and Perk slows Bynum our depth will win the day. I think Denver will give them a tussle.

I guess I've always been a PG junkie. And, in my estimation, evaluating a PG in a vacuum is far more egregious than the irrelevance of evaluating any other position player in a vacuum.

The reason is that, if a PG is doing his job, he's enabling (more than any other player is doing) all of his teammates. When people evaluate a PG in a vacuum, they should be assigning a certain percentage of his teammates' success to him as well. Moreover, when the team's "cooking," it's more often than not because of a pace set by Rondo.

So, when Rondo's (1) own offensive output and (2) his rightful "allocation" of his teammates' outputs are added together, along with (3) credit for being a team "pace catalyst" and (4) his defensive contributions (which are much more under control this season), losing 8/10 of a point a game because of his free throw shooting seems like an ant on you-know-what. The free throw importance would have to swell like rice in water even to be termed negligible.

I understand the "what if" hack-a-Rondo argument, and my response is, "Get back to me when it's really happening on even an semi-occasional basis."

Sam

I think what a lot of you haven't commented on is 1) the difficulty with distributing to 3 future hall of famers, and 2) the fact that Rondo seems to be getting a great awareness as to when he needs to start turning it on.

Rondo seems to have an innate feeling when to turn on the jets. I have been waiting for this aspect in his game. It will only get better. It really takes a lot of confidence to take charge in a game when you are playing with 3 HOFers. Rondo now has moved past that, and realizes he is the best person to kick things into gear.

I still feel his defense can be better, more consistent. With his quickness, lengthy arms, and large hands together with his instinctiveness, Rondo has has the components for even more stifling defense.

sdceltfan

Interesting observation with respect to distributing the ball to 3 FHF

He is literally growing into his role and I think getting better at it.

dboss

Any thoughts about how a team might attempt to cover for a poor FT shooting PG when the rubber meets the road so to speak?

Are there any precidents for this in Celtic lore?

GC

cracker

Rajon does not go to the line that much so I am not sure you have to cover for something that is not happening that much.

He only takes 1.6 free throws per game. In other words your obsession with his free throw shooting has little to do with the facts. Rondo is not a very good 3 point shooter either. Are you worried that he might miss too many 3 pointers?

If Rondo shot 100% from the foul line he would have 19 more total points this year which is less than 1 point pr game. Get over it.

I think your argument is on the weak side but i suppose when you re trying to find fault with a player that is this good poor free throw shooting that rarely happens is the best argument that you can make.

dboss

dboss wrote:cracker

Rajon does not go to the line that much so I am not sure you have to cover for something that is not happening that much.

He only takes 1.6 free throws per game. In other words your obsession with his free throw shooting has little to do with the facts. Rondo is not a very good 3 point shooter either. Are you worried that he might miss too many 3 pointers?

If Rondo shot 100% from the foul line he would have 19 more total points this year which is less than 1 point pr game. Get over it.

I think your argument is on the weak side but i suppose when you re trying to find fault with a player that is this good poor free throw shooting that rarely happens is the best argument that you can make.

dboss

dboss:

I wasn't necessarily referring to Rondo. I was speaking more generally that that.

It would seem that an opposing team might adopt a policy such as.... "Make so-and-so beat us at the free throw line" and if that individual is a PG, how do you counter that strategy considering that the PG handles the ball a lot?

GC