THURSDAY - ASIK TRADE - UPDATE

Played a lot less minutes too boot . Sorry he can do more than just rebound

beat wrote:Played a lot less minutes too boot . Sorry he can do more than just rebound

He's basically a taller version of Perkins that can rebound noticeably better, plays similar defense (which is towards the best in the league), and is slightly less offensively challenged.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not calling him a bad player, because he isn't. But he is overpriced, much like many guys in this league. Asik is going to want a bigger contract once it's time for a new one. And it won't be worth the money. $8M should really be the limit.



KJ

sam wrote:Dboss,

Well, as I've said, it's probably moot now.  But you say it's not a question of lack of offense and then you say, "But he is no offensive player as far as scoring the basketball."  I believe the only way he could have scored 10 PPG in 30 MPG last season was by scoring the basketball.

I agree that scoring is certainly far from his strong suit, but I don't believe double figures (plus what he might add in some of the other offensive areas I cited) are all that bad for a guy whose defensive value in protecting the rim becomes more superior with every new report I read.

I'm not sure why he'd have to take more than 7.5 shots a game as a Celtic.  As for his being "horrible at the line," perhaps you missed my point that he's making almost two-thirds of his free throws this season.  That's a net 39% increase spread over two years, which suggests to me more than a slight improvement in his free throw shooting.  And, since he doesn't score a whole lot, I wouldn't expect him to be at the line a whole lot.  Besides, if he shoots only two or three freebies a game, why all the fuss about his free throw shooting?

It is true that few players (if any) excel in every single basketball category.  I agree with Red's way of evaluating players.  You get a player for his dominant assets (in Asik's case, rim protection and rebounding) and expect him to be a decent supporting player in other areas.  Asik fulfills my requirements for exactly the kind of tough, truly big, bona fide center the Celtics need, and I'd happily take his 10 PPG in 30 minutes and his 64% free throw shooting as "throw-in" capabilities.  Unfortunately, it looks like that won't happen.  At least not right now.

I know many people think Danny will be able to scoop up a good, young center somewhere along the way.  I can't help but ask, "Where?"

When I look at the top 20 prospects in the "stacked" 2014 draft (which will undoubtedly undergo all sorts of changes during and after the college season), I see only three centers: Cauley-Stein, Embid and Tarczewski.  They're all 7 feet tall, but only Tarczewski is north of 240 pounds and the scouting reports say all three need to bulk up and especially gain lower body strength.  (Where have I heard that before?)  Apparently, Tarczewski added around 20-25 pounds during his freshman year (he may now be as high as 260), but there are some reports that he's not handling the added weight well and looks slower out there.  At any rate, there's nothing about any of the three that clearly labels him more than a project at this time.  (Under the right circumstances, I guess projects can be good.  In fact, maybe they can be fab.  Oh wait....)

I looked at the free agent centers after this season, and they seem mainly to be a mixture of the "usual suspect" journeymen, guys past their prime who are likely to be injured or overpaid or both, and young guys whose names mean little or nothing to me. 

So I continue to believe the most likely avenue for Danny to get a stud center will be via the trade route.  (Of course, that could include a sign and trade of one of the aforementioned free agent centers, if any of them were considered exciting additions.)  Trading is also the best way to keep from bumping into the salary cap.  I'm hoping that Danny's wiles, plus the right combination of other teams' needs—especially in terms of the salary cap) will enable him to tap the trade market for "Mr. Right" at some point this season.

In the meantime, I'll go back to watching Vitor make an earnest effort to improve and Sully continue to be a rather heroic foul machine in covering bigger guys.

I'd welcome comments, especially from those posters like NYCelt who know far more about college prospects than I do.

Sam

Sam

I have previously stated that I think  a player like Asik could help this ballclub but if the Celtics are looking for a scoring threat at the 5 spot Asik's name does not ring a bell.   I did not say that he could not score but if he pretends to be an elite center or a stud center his 10 PPG does not measure up if you compare him to elite centers in the league.  That is why I did not mention it.  He averaged 10 points one year and his offensive skill level does not lend itself to any presumption that he will be much better than that.  I did not see where the statistical improvement in his free throw shooting is meaningful because last year he only took 3.6 attempts and this year he takes 2.3 attempts.  He has a career FT % of .534  The numbers as far as free throws are simply not meaningful.  To me he is still horrible at 53% or 64%  and should be fouled at every opportunity in the 4th QTR of a close game.

I do not consider him to be a stud center.  I consider him to be a stud rebounder and a guy that can play physical in the post.  But stud should be reserved for real studs.

The fact that the deal did not go down does not bother me in the least because I think Asik is overpaid and is the type of person that will want more money at the end of next season (He will be 29 and no closer to being a stud center)  I do not like the fact that he bitches and moans because he had to play behind Noah and he had to play behind Howard.  Those guys are better than him.  Asik is a role player.

dboss

Hi,
I believe that discussing "good, bad and ugly" of Asik we have to keep in mind that the Celtics is in the process of building a contender. So even if they get Asik he may turn to be just a stepping stone to trade some other players.
If he does go to Boston, I think he can become core 5. I don't know much about his game but listening to what others say (he's improved version of Perk) I'd say go for him. From the money standpoint, I suspect that Wyc and Co. will open the pocket if it means to get on the contending level. They've done it before.
Another possible path is to sacrifice the 5 position and get star-level players at 2 and 3, a la Miami. Speaking of which, if Lebron moves from South Beach to Causeway Street Celtics can become contender overnight. Sorry, just dozed off.
Anyway, getting back to Asik trade or, rather no trade, I don't know what actually happened, why the trade fell through, but Danny had/has an upper hand, didn't want to overpay and, I hope will not if that trade is back on the table.

AK

KJ,

I see your point.  The period in time that Asik contract was written was a period of over paying for talent and what you are saying is the Celtics are absorbing the inflated portion of Asik contract.

112288

According to our TJ DA had no leverage.

We are in an excellent situation...tons of future picks and solid players to move for the right deal. KG was worth the assets...Allen was worth the Assets...

There is no need for DA to overbid for anyone. We are flat out solid from 1 to 4. We are already 80% there with the starting lineup. Our bench is getting better and Brad is proving to be an outstanding coach. Ownership is strong and our GM gets it right more times than not. And our fan base is off the charts.

Dboss

Dboss,

Nowhere have I read or heard or imagined that the Celtics were trying to get Asik for his scoring ability.  If your position is that to be a "stud center" one must have elite scoring ability to go along with exceptional defensive and rebounding credentials, you must have a short memory.

The Celtics won 11 championships in the 50s and 60s.  In those 11 seasons, their center averaged 0.36 points per minute on the floor.  In the only season for which we have a realistic barometer of Asik's ability, he averaged 0.34 points per minute on the floor.

That's why they have five men on the floor.  They all play varying roles.  Any scoring Asik would do would be gravy.  Double-figure scoring, which he has proven he can generate by playing 30 minutes a game, would be fantastic.

As for the statistical improvement in Asik's free throwing, you're the one who brought it into play by saying he's a terrible free throw shooter.  You can't have it both ways—criticizing his work at the line and then saying his improvement at the line has no relevance because he doesn't shoot a lot of free throws.

Free throw stats are not calculated on a base of 2.6 free throws taken per game.  They're based on the total number of free throws taken in a season— in Asik's case, 145 in 2010-11, 103 in 2011-12, and 299 in 2012-13.  Those numbers were certainly large enough to warrant percentaging.

A statistician looks for patterns, and Asik's free throw shooting pattern for each of the past two seasons has been dramatically up from the immediately previous season.  In the face of sharply escalating stats, lifetime figures are not really all that relevant because (I'll say it again) the past is not now.  It's a "What have you done for me lately?" world.  People have the right to improve and to have that improvement recognized.

Rajon Rondo averages fewer than 3 free throws a game too, and people are not at all reluctant to criticize his free throw shooting, which was a hair lower in his most recent season than in his first season.  If Rajon had produced the kinds of year-to-year increased free throw accuracy demonstrated by Asik (up from 50% his first season to 64% this season), I suspect many people on this board would be doing terminal cartwheels.

The only reason I think this conversation is worth pursuing at this point is that I'm still hoping that maybe the Celtics will get Asik later in the season.  And, if that should happen, you can be certain that they'd looking for him to be a defensive and rebounding stud, not an offensive stud.  What evidence is there that he has been "pretending" to be an offensive stud?  He is what he is—a player who can fill the most glaringly vacant role on this team.

Sam

Sam,

Asik is a very good center, but I don't necessarily think that he's an "elite" center. I'm making that judgment by comparing his career stats to Howard. But that may not be what's important. He's good enough to fit the role the Celtics need at center, but my concern is that the salary is more of the problem. For what he does, he is overpaid and he's going to want more money for his next contract. In which case, he's likely to walk after the $15M payout if another team is willing to outbid for him.

I don't think anyone here is of the mindset that he'd be a bad addition to the team because he'd fit a vital role. I think it's important we all bear this in mind as we discuss this matter.



KJ

Step 1: Rank the centers.

Here's a list of centers I consider better than Asik:

• The top 3 -- Roy Hibbert, Marc Gasol, Dwight Howard

• The emerging stars -- Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, Nikola Vucevic

• The others -- Serge Ibaka, Brook Lopez, Joakim Noah, DeMarcus Cousins, Al Horford, Al Jefferson, Nene, Andersen Varejao, Tyson Chandler

Centers I consider roughly equivalent to Asik: DeAndre Jordan, Nikola Pekovic, Marcin Gortat, Andrew Bogut

Step 2: Which of the above would I want over Asik if I were Boston?

Roy Hibbert -- of course
Marc Gasol -- of course
Dwight Howard -- I'd have to think long and hard about it, but I'm inclined to say no
Anthony Davis -- yes, though I have concerns about his durability
Andre Drummond -- of course
Nikola Vucevic -- of course
Serge Ibaka -- of course
Brook Lopez -- no, not durable (just heard he may be out for the year -- again)
Joakim Noah -- of course
DeMarcus Cousins -- no, head case
Al Horford -- of course
Al Jefferson -- no, he's the opposite of what Boston needs -- good offense, poor defense
Nene -- no, not durable
Andersen Varejao -- no, he's 31, and guys who play this way don't have long careers
Tyson Chandler -- yes, but he's 31 and has had durability issues
DeAndre Jordan -- push
Nikola Pekovic -- no, not a rim protector
Marcin Gortat -- yes, but it's close
Andrew Bogut -- no

Step 3: So how do the Celtics get a good center?

Option A. Trading or signing somebody, with that somebody hopefully being as good as or better than Asik. Of the nine guys I'd take over Asik (I'm sure others would have a different list), the Celtics have zero chance of getting most of them. Asik may not be your center of choice, but he's been in the league a few years and knows how to play. Opportunities to get a center that good are limited, but on the plus side, you know what you're getting and you get a guy who's already in his productive years. The exception is if you can find a steal languishing on another team's roster like Orlando did with Vucevic, but that's a real long shot.

Option B. Drafting and developing somebody, which as we've seen, is a crapshoot. In addition to unpredictability, it typically takes a few years for centers to adapt to the NBA and be productive. Occasionally, you can find a center that is productive within a couple of years as Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond have done, but it's more common to take 3-5 years for a center to become impactful. The downside of this option is that it likely pushes out the timeline for the Celtics to become contenders.

Option C. Go small ball. This is the Miami-San Antonio model, where you can get by with a marginally serviceable center or use a power forward to defend a center if the other team has a good center. For this to work, you need superior talent at two or three of the other positions, role players who fit into a system, and a great coach to make it work. I'm not sure that Boston has that superior talent at the other positions, but I think the role players and coach aren't a problem.

Boston has all three options available. Ainge needs to take advantage of opportunities to trade or sign a good center, but he needs to do it so that he doesn't trade away too much. I think that's precisely what Ainge did with the recent Asik talks -- Ainge wasn't willing to give up too much, and Houston thought they could get a better deal and didn't take Ainge's offer. One of the most powerful negotiating tools is being willing to walk away from a deal, which puts leverage on your side. It may be that when the trading deadline approaches, Houston finds that Boston's deal is the best and the Asik deal gets done later rather than sooner, or maybe it doesn't get done at all, but Ainge will do it at a reasonable price or not at all.

If Ainge can't acquire a center, then options B and C are his fallback positions, with Boston essentially doing both -- developing a small-ball system and also using draft picks for centers.

The best, quasi-possible option? Get Vucevic from Orlando. He's a free agent in 2015.

I think Boston should wait till a better option becomes available. It's not like playoff contention is a main concern at the moment. They can add to the team without subtracting vital parts if they choose to.




KJ

Celtics will look at talent for the center position and pull the trigger IF they CAN UNLOAD some contracts like Lee and Wallace.

My personal feelings..........I think they sign Humphries for next year.........he has shown that he can play and he is a banger on the boards and has a nice offensive game.

112288

KJ,

I never said Asik is an elite center, because the word "elite" can be defined in many ways, and the majority of people immediately think of offense in defining "elite."  I said Asik possesses exactly what the Celtics need—rim protection and rebounding.  They're a PG away (for a little while longer) from being a very good scoring team, and they should need a load of scoring from someone who, in effect, provides points by taking them away from opponents.  I'm a role guy, and I believe Asik can fulfill the perfect role with the Celtics just as Bill Russell did pretty well.

I'm certainly not trying to compare the two, but I am saying that a defensive-minded center who won't back down to the elite centers of the league can be a very valuable commodity.  Ten PPG aren't exactly chopped liver; and a guy who's very good on the pick-and-roll—a play that is exactly in Rondo's wheelhouse—might even have the potential to score a little more, to say nothing of offensive putbacks (which are arguably worth 4 points apiece because they add 2 points for the Celtics and prevent the opponent from breaking and scoring 2 points on the other end).

I prefer to leave the money stuff to the Celtics' braintrust.  All sorts of things can happen in terms of the Celtics' salaries and cap hits by the remainder of the season.  As I understand it, Asik's under contract through next year, which would have given Danny and Brad ample time to guage what he's worth and act accordingly when his contract is due to expire.

One thing for everyone to remember is that it's all about the team.  Teams don't need a 17-tool player at every position.  They need to amass a collection of players who, between them rather than individually, fulfill all the important roles in depth and who, between them, can compensate for one another's vulnerabilities.

One of the reasons I wish Danny would act asap is to forge some semblance of balance (especially after Rondo's return) is so that the team can operate from a position of relative strength as they learn to optimize their collective game.  For instance, most of us (and Celtics brass as well) have expressed a desire for the team to play more up-tempo ball.  That's not possible unless the Celtics grab a lot of defensive rebounds with authority so that opponents won't already be retreating as the Celts box the ball around and finally grab it too late for an effective fast break.  Without a rebounding stud, and with undersized big men, they're not likely to excel in the defensive rebounding department. 

Moreover, I've been very impressed with how Jared Sullinger has played opposing centers.  But he's still vulnerable to height, and who knows how much banging from bigger guys he can withstand over the course of a season?  I'd prefer him to be spending most of his minutes honing his skills at his more normal PF position, with maybe a few backup minutes at center.

These are just two examples of how I'd like the Celtics not just to be developing a mind set of trying to compensate for weaknesses but, rather, of learning how to capitalize collectively on a robust list of strengths.  I believe that one reason they can't hold leads but can come back late in games is that adrenalin and surprise moves by Brad help them play over their heads for relatively short periods of time.  But the fact is that they're usually operating with makeshift responses to vulnerabilities; and it doesn't take opponents long to ferret out those vulnerabilities and capitalize on them.  Strategies such as going small ball are usually like medicine that can help mask the pain but doesn't really address the underlying root of the problem.

I don't know the stats, and I'm too lazy to look them up, but I'll wager that opponents are averaging quite a few more points in the paint than the Celtics are.  I'd also wager that points in the paint may be the biggest and most consistent statistical deficit the Celtics face.  It's frustrating to see the Celts work their tails off for a score only to see the other team lay the ball in easily within five to 10 seconds.  They need a solid defensive/rebounding big, and they need him a.s.a.p.  Otherwise, they'll be stuck with playing makeshift basketball that is just one step removed from playground ball—just at the time when they could really use the luxury of doing what each player does best within the context of growing team chemistry.

It's all well and good to assume that Danny will be able to pick up a good center in the near future.  If so, why didn't it happen in previous years, when incoming centers would be joining an assumed contender with a core of seasoned veterans and a so-called "player's coach?"

Outside very kindly provided a list of centers he feels are better than Asik.  But then, Outside has to admit the odds of getting such players in trade are relatively small.

We keep looking at the draft for relief.  I was excited when I saw that Danny had drafted a 7-footer, but then I found out that he was just another stretch 4 who, by the way, happens to score precisely the same number of points per minute that Asik averaged when he was getting lots of time last season.

If anyone seriously thinks the free agent route will get us a stud center in or near his prime, I'd disagree faster than one can say, "Andrew Bynum is unfortunately damaged goods"—and that doesn't even take into account salary cap restrictions.

There can be no question that this team is extremely motivated to put all their energies into succeeding as best they can this season.  I find it sad that they're restricted in their efforts by such an imbalanced and vulnerable roster.

Sam

sam wrote:Outside very kindly provided a list of centers he feels are better than Asik.  But then, Outside has to admit the odds of getting such players in trade are relatively small.

I did indeed say that, but a corollary that I meant to explain but didn't is this -- there are very few opportunities to trade for a quality center, so such opportunities should not be dismissed lightly just because the center in question -- Asik in this case -- is not all-league. He is certainly among the best that the Celtics will have the opportunity to trade for. I expect to see another round of "Asik to the Celtics" talk between now and the trade deadline.

The other purpose of my post was to explain the other options -- draft a center, or essentially do without one and go small. But I think those are secondary options.

A trade that makes sense for Houston and Asik is ship him to Chicago for Boozer. helps Chicago out as well.

112288

Outside, we're thinking exactly alike.  Don't you find that a little scary?

Sam

Sam, I have been reading this thread with a great deal if interest but one thing concerning Asik hasn't been discussed.

My question: can Asik make the outlet pass? That was one of Bill Russell's great strengths.
If Asik can defend the rim, rebound AND make the outlet pass (Dave Cowens was also great in that department) then we would be crazy not to sign him if Danny can work out a satisfactory deal.

sam wrote:Outside, we're thinking exactly alike.  Don't you find that a little scary?

Glad to see you're coming around to my way of thinking. There might be hope for you yet!

It is now being reported that Houston wanted Deron Williams for Asik and Lin.

Deron Williams is one of the top 5 point guards in the league.  Is Omer Asik that good?  No.  Lin is a salary filler.

If this is what Houston thinks Asik is worth, no wonder they didn't trade him.  They're too rich for everybody's blood.

Of course, Brook Lopez' injury might change everything.  Either way, they're in a tough spot.  If they give up DWill for Asik, they regain their beef but lose their floor general and a lot of offense, both direct and indirect.  If they don't trade for Asik, they've got KG, Blatche and Miles Plumlee at 5.  I hate to say it but that's still, minus an all-star, better than us.

Brooklyn's problem is that, if they wait to see how well Blatche and Plumlee step up, they are almost guaranteed to not make the playoffs due to their slow start.  They need to start winning.  Now.  And lots of it.


bob


.

Berlin, that's an excellent point. The outlet pass is actually more complex than it might appear. It depends on the positioning of the point guard as much as the outlet passer. The more available the PG makes himself, the less pressure on the outlet passer to thread the needle at distance with a pass. I happen to believe the best outlet passes are not of the "home run" type that often represent a high degree of risk. The best outlet passes are of the short, crisp variety that get the ball into the PG's hands a.s.a.p.

I have confidence in Rondo to position himself so that outlet passes by Celtics rebounders are as routine as possible.

Sam

Berlin and Sam

The outlet pass seems to have vanished to a great degree. Seems more times than not if a big gets the board the guard comes back to be litterally handed the ball. Watched a couple games yesterday with this in mind college and pro and only saw a couple of what I would call true outlet passes to near 1/3 court and NONE that went all the way to the front court.

In wondreing why think it comes down to not many dominate bigs and the few that may not have a top flight point to get it to. Add to that the shiffting of players from team to team, no one really learns how to play with each other.

The days of Russ throwing it to basically 2 point guards during his entire career (and Hondo) are long gone.

I think worrying about Aisk's ability to throw an outlet pass is pretty far down on my lists of concers.

beat

Unfortunately, I think the outlet pass thrown by bigs off a rebound is a bit of a lost art in the NBA.

Nothing increases tempo more than a pass that gets you to half court in 2-3 seconds.


bob


.

bobheckler wrote:Unfortunately, I think the outlet pass thrown by bigs off a rebound is a bit of a lost art in the NBA.

Nothing increases tempo more than a pass that gets you to half court in 2-3 seconds.


bob


.

Best I ever saw doing that was Wes Unseld. Walton wasn't bad at it either.

steve3344 wrote:

bobheckler wrote:Unfortunately, I think the outlet pass thrown by bigs off a rebound is a bit of a lost art in the NBA.

Nothing increases tempo more than a pass that gets you to half court in 2-3 seconds.


bob


.

Best I ever saw doing that was Wes Unseld.  Walton wasn't bad at it either.

steve,

I concur, 100%.


bob


.

Who ever Danny trades for........he has to trade for a big.....a guy with size, NOW!

Danny has to get a big before Rondo gets back.  That is the only true measure Danny will have to evaluate the team with a real center to see how the team performs. Without a big in place with Rondo ...it then becomes a guess as to how the team would play, who stays, and who needs to go.

I think this issue has to be addressed this season, not next.  Next year is Rondo's last and if we do not have a true center in place by then, it could force Danny to trade Rondo verses losing him to free agency.

112288

You guys are definitely right about the demise of the outlet pass as a lethal weapon. It was the trigger of the most beautiful sequence I've ever seen in the NBA. A big snags the rebound, turns and throw the outlet all in one motion while still in the air. PG receives the ball in the flat and, not more than three crisp passes and maybe four seconds later, the ball's in the hoop without the ball's ever touching the floor. Of all the plays in all the games I've seen, that was the one type of play that literally had me catching my breath every time. I kept seeing it but still couldn't quite assimilate the beauty of it. Fortunately, I have some video of it, but the best videos are in my head, and I really prize them immensely.

Sam