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Rapid Reaction: Suns 87, Celtics 80

By Chris Forsberg | ESPNBoston.com

BOSTON -- Rapid Reaction after the Phoenix Suns defeated the Boston Celtics 87-80 on Friday night at TD Garden:

THE NITTY GRITTY
Goran Dragic (20 points, four assists, three rebounds) and Eric Bledsoe (17 points, 10 rebounds, four assists) gave Boston fits, while PJ Tucker added a double-double (11 points, 10 rebounds). But it was rookie Alex Len, pressed into late-game service when Kelly Olynyk floored Miles Plumlee with an elbow, who produced the crucial tip-in in the final minute to help the playoff-hunting Suns emerge. Kris Humphries and Chris Johnson had matching team-highs at 11 points as Boston shot just 30.9 percent overall (29 of 94) and lost despite eight players registering eight points or more. Rajon Rondo finished with eight points, eight rebounds, and five assists over 34:23 but was minus-18 in plus/minus, while Avery Bradley chipped in nine points, a rebound and a steal over 16:38 off the bench in his return from missing the last 13 games.

TURNING POINT
The Suns led by as much as 11 early in the second quarter, but Boston rallied to tie before the end of the frame. Phoenix got its lead back up to eight early in the third quarter, but again Boston clawed back. It was the Celtics out front by three with 3:18 to play in the fourth quarter, but Bledsoe completed an old-fashioned three-point play to tie the game. Knotted at 80 with 54.1 seconds to play, Len took advantage of a switch and tipped in Bledsoe's miss while being fouled (and made the freebie for an 83-80 lead).

LOOSE BALLS
The Celtics debuted their new St. Patrick's Day alternate jerseys. They'll wear the sleeved shirts their next two games as well. ... Chris Babb was a healthy DNP, while Joel Anthony made a blink-and-you'll-miss-it cameo late in the first half (an inbound turnover and he was immediately subbed back out). ... The Celtics finished with 56 rebounds, including 19 on the offensive glass.

WHAT IT MEANS
The Celtics (22-44) have now lost three in a row and will maintain the fourth worst record in basketball (entering the night tied for that spot with the Jazz and Lakers). If the losing streak is to stop, Boston is going to have to win on the road against the Western Conference, something it hasn't done this season. The Celtics are 0-13 as they prepare for a back-to-back in New Orleans and Dallas to wrap up their west slate. The Celtics return home Wednesday to host the Miami Heat.
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CELTICS ECLIPSED BY SUNS LATE IN RETURN OF AVERY BRADLEY

WEEI

By Mike Petraglia  

Rajon Rondo gets around Phoenix’s Ish Smith Friday night. (AP)

Alex Len’s three-point play with 54.1 seconds left broke an 80-80 tie and lifted the Suns over the Celtics, 87-80, Friday night at TD Garden. Kris Humphries led the Celtics with 11 points and 13 rebounds. The Celtics lost their third straight and fell to 22-44 on the season.

Cold shooting from the field put the the Celtics in an early hole, falling behind by as many as 11 in the opening minutes of the second quarter. But strong rebounding, led by Kris Humphries, allowed Boston to work their way back in, cutting the halftime deficit to two, 46-44.

The Celtics again went cold from the floor in the third quarter, making just four of their 20 shots from the field. As a result, Phoenix grabbed a 61-53 lead with 3:24 left in the third. But the Celtics again showed their resiliency, cutting to the deficit to just four, 64-60 heading into the fourth.

The Celtics continued that momentum by scoring the first nine points of the fourth quarter to cap an 11-0 run and grab a 69-64 lead, matching their biggest lead of the game.

Phoenix came back with the next six points to take a 70-69 lead. The Celtics led 78-75 before the Suns scored five straight, including the go-ahead basket, a turnaround jumper by Markeiff Morris with 2:30 left, putting Phoenix up, 80-78. Jeff Green‘s two free throws with 2:02 left tied the game again, 80-80.

After Len’s three-point play, the Celtics could not get off a shot close to the basket and the Suns put away the game with two breakaway layups.

The Celtics are off Saturday and begin a brief two-game road trip Sunday evening in New Orleans. They play in Dallas Monday night before returning home to play the Miami Heat Wednesday night at TD Garden.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Cold feet: The Celtics shot just 37.5 percent from the floor in the first half, making just 18-of-48 shots, including 2-of-12 from long range. Good defense and Phoenix sloppiness kept the Celtics in it, as Boston trailed by just two, 46-44 at the half. It didn’t get much better in the third quarter as the Celtics shot just 20 percent on 4-of-20 shooting.

Gone fishing: There are games where Brandon Bass can take over and find his shots in the paint and under the glass seemingly at will. Then there’s nights like Friday. He started but never got into a rhythm, scoring just eight points on 4-of-12 shooting, playing 21 minutes. Part of this was due to the fact that coach Brad Stevens elected to go with a smaller, three-guard lineup of Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley and Chris Johnson for the better parts of the second and third quarters. Throw in the continued emergence of Kelly Olynyk and guards Jerryd Bayless and Phil Pressey and there was little time left for Bass.

Green-out: Like Bass, Jeff Green can look like a world-beater one game and come out with a dud the next, like Friday. He had just nine points in 36 minutes on 2-of-14 shooting.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

Bradley’s back: Avery Bradley returned to game action for the first time since injuring his ankle Feb. 9 against Dallas. The team’s shutdown defender came off the bench with 3:24 left in the first quarter. With 5:09 left in the third, Bradley showed his offensive skills, getting into traffic, knocking down a 10-footer and drawing the foul for a three-point play. He finished with nine points in 17 minutes.

On the rebound: The Celtics attacked the glass with authority in the first half outrebounding the Suns, 27-24. Leading the way with six in the first half was Kris Humphries, who grabbed six of his xx for the game in the opening half. Humphries finished with his seventh double-double of the season, scoring 11 points while grabbing 13 rebounds.

Balancing the scales: The only player not to get into the scoring column in the first half was Chris Babb, the undrafted rookie out of Iowa State who was signed to his second 10-day contract on Monday. Even Joel Anthony got into the mix for the first time since playing four minutes against Golden State on March 5 and scoring two points in the first half, his first points since netting four against Atlanta on Feb. 26.

Rondo passes knee test: With about seven minutes left in the third quarter, Rondo drove to the left side of the basket for one of his patented dishes under the basket but he lost his footing, slipping to the court. His knee was protected by the black ACL brace he wears and he remained in the game and played the remainder of the third quarter with no apparent ill effects.

112288

One of the hard parts of watching this season is watching the Celtics trying to figure out who they are.  Are they a running team?  Are they a switching defensive team?  Are they a jumpshooting team?  Are they a dump it in to a PF (Sully, Hump, Bass) and let them pound someone into paste team?  Who are they?  Unfortunately, since our roster changes didn't address our key weaknesses, we still don't know.

This game, between its up-and-down-the-court pace and those eye-sore t-shirt unis the Celtics were wearing, gave this game the look and feel of a pickup game at the Y.

1.  Once again, Hump showed up for work.  He has really, really opened eyes this year.  At this point I positively bristle when I see/hear someone call him "Mr. Kardashian".  Hump was tied with Chris Johnson for Celtic high scorer.  Unfortunately, they only had 11 points each, which tells you just how pathetic our offense is now.  Hump runs the floor better than any other big we have, he showed he could take it inside last night and he has a solid mid-range jump shot.  Another double-double with 13 boards for Mr. Humphries.  His professionalism all year has definitely been a glimmer.

2.   CJ attacked the hoop.  I love it when he does more than just shoot 3s.  I'm not sold on his ball handling, but he did some nice slashing last night.  His block came on Dragic, out on top, as the clock wound down.  It was not a matchup off a switch, that was his assignment.  That says something about what Brad thinks of CJ's defensive prowess, putting him on Dragic.

3.  Who was a complete freaking pain last night.  Nobody gets up and down the court like Los Suns and nobody on the Suns gets up and down the court like Goran Dragic.  20 points on 8-15.  He went full court, he ate us up half court, he hit 3s.  He's 6'4" but he has a 6'7" wingspan and a 37"+ vertical leap.  He ain't your average white euro boy.  How he didn't make the all-star game is another reason to not watch that joke of a game.  Man, he is really, really good.  Not only is he really fast north-south but he has an absolutely killer crossover.

4.  So is his running mate, Eric Bledsoe.  He pretty much did what he wanted too.  Our back court, with Rondo and Bradley and Bayless and even Pressey, is supposed to be pretty good.  They sure as hell didn't look good compared to Dragic and Bledsoe and Ish Smith.

5.  Another pathetic (and that's being very kind) shooting game by our starters.  Hump was 5-8 but the other 4 starters were a combined 11-45.  Maybe we should send the entire platoon to Maine to work on their game?  They were horrible, with the final finger down the throat being Jeff Green's 2-14.  Once again he was outplayed by both PJ Tucker (11 points and 10 rebounds) and Markieff Morris (15 points, 9 rebounds).  Rondo at 4-15 and only 5 assists didn't cover himself with glory either.  Bayless only played 16 minutes.  I don't understand that.  It's not because he wasn't stopping Dragic/Bledsoe, because neither did Phil or Bradley.

6.  Phil Pressey looked better last night than he did against the Knicks, not that that's saying much.  He had 5 assists and only one TO and definitely uptempo-ed the Celtics.  If you run with Phil, he'll hit you, but you gotta run and I mean run fast.  Hump has figured that out and has been the recipient of more than one Phil fast break assists.  He hit Bradley underneath on a backdoor pass but I really don't see many other people running with Phil other than Hump.  We can't outmuscle people, so why aren't we outrunning them?  Because we don't know who we are.

7.  A lot of people oohed and ahhed over the return of Avery Bradley.  Well, he was 4-12 and didn't stop Dragic or Bledsoe any better than anybody else did (and nobody else did).  First game back so there's no reason to read too much into this.  In fact, embarrassingly enough, 33% (4-12) is better than the team shot as a whole.

8.  Kelly had a good game.  10 rebounds with more than a few of them being pretty rugged ones.  After watching him getting thrown around like a rag doll for the first half of the season, it was nice seeing him fight for rebounds.  5 of those boards were offensive ones.  I think, maybe, this worm has finally turned.  He was a bucket away from a double-double which he would have had if he had taken a shot he should have taken.  There was a jump ball, with .5 seconds left on the clock.  Kelly got the ball on the tip at the low block, had a shot, but passed to Sully who didn't get it off in time.  He was too unselfish.  Everybody is telling Kelly to shoot, he needs to listen to them.  You're a shooter, Kelly, and shooters shoot.

9.  With 8:52 left in the game Kelly accidentally poked Miles Plumlee in the eye.  Plumlee left to the locker room, not to return, and #5 pick Alex Len came in for the final 9 minutes.  First of all, think of that.  The #5 pick in the draft doesn't get off Hornacek's bench until he absolutely has to because he's the only center left on the roster.  Len proceeded to do a good job, scoring 6 points and grabbing 3 rebounds and getting a very big block on Sully at the rim with the score 72-70 Celts.  Is he a disappointment?  Is that why he's not playing more?  He's only playing 9.1mpg this year, so this stint last night was actually par-for-the-course for him and not unusual.  In fact, if Plumlee hadn't gone down Len might not have gotten into the game at all.  Could he become available?  He's 7'1", 255# and has a 7'4" wingspan but how is he different from 7'0, 263#, 7'2" wingspan Colton Iverson?  Len looks solid enough and didn't look like a wuss last night, but we know Iverson is The Thing from the Fantastic 4.

10.  They had 24 fast break points.  24.  That's a ton.  Their perimeter defenders were taking off down court even before they secured the rebound (which didn't always work well due to our superior offensive rebounding).  They also had 52 points in the paint.  Man, they killed us inside and on running.  What more could you ask for if you're an offensive coach?

11.  We had a VERY nice 94 fgas, but our 30.9% fg% killed us.  How can a professional basketball team shoot that poorly?  And, what's more, how can they seem to do that game after game after game?  Our offensive rebounding, which should be helping us destroy the other team, is merely bailing us out.

12. Former Celtics Dionte Christmas and Shavlik Randolph never got to play. I wish them well. Quite frankly, we could use either one or both of them.


Our bench is outperforming our starters.  This is not good since it is your starters that win most of your playoff games for you.  Of course, you have to make the playoffs first and, with these starters, that's not happening.  I cannot believe how badly we shoot as a team.

16 games left and only 5 of them are against non-playoff teams.  It's always darkest just before it goes completely black.


bob


.

bob why you so harsh to Jeff Green? its just not fair

cowens/oldschool wrote:bob why you so harsh to Jeff Green? its just not fair

cow,

He was 2-14. What do you want me to do, buy him ice cream?


bob


.

bob

I didn't see the game, was having too much fun watching Nuggets being led by Faried, out energize the Heat, their 5th loss in 6 games. I said a month ago that the Heat are vulnerable and will not get out of the East, now Lebron looks tired in the 4th suddenly.

On Celtics sometimes players play with intangibles that are not conveyed by the stats, I guess with your description on Jeff Green, that wasn't the case.

cow

bobheckler wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:bob why you so harsh to Jeff Green? its just not fair

cow,

He was 2-14.  What do you want me to do, buy him ice cream?


bob


.

37.9% (169 for 446) his last 28 games - when, according to some on this board he has STEPPED UP his game. Geez, thank God for THAT.

Cow, I assume your "why you so harsh to Jeff Green" comment was sarcastic.

But my followup question is this -- why single out Green? Why not Rondo, the superstar great defender who couldn't stop any of the Suns guards? Or Sullinger, who has been in a bigger funk than Green (10.6 PPG on 34.8% from the field since February 7). Or Bass, who has averaged 7.7 points on 32.4% shooting and four rebounds over the past four games?

It's not that Green doesn't deserve some criticism, because he does. The question is, why is Green the whipping boy while others are exempt from such scorn?

Good question Outside.

I have been a fan of Jeff Green from the beginning and believe he has often been put into a no win position on this team.  He is a bit of an enigma, as he has the kind of physical talent that is rare even in a league full of great players.  But it seems that he doesn't have the motor or the ability to play with an intensity to take his game to a higher level on a night in and night out basis.  I can see why that would be frustrating to some posters here, but the vitriol that is spewed and directed at Jeff Green is wholly undeserved.

Maybe some people here have selective memory loss - but Jeff Green was brought here to be a complimentary player - he was never expected to be the go to guy - and his past success and salary bear this out.  The fact that Danny Ainge basically shipped out the heart and soul of this team to begin the rebuilding process in no way changes that fact.

Expecting Jeff Green to carry an NBA team simply because he was the last decent player standing is ridiculous.  And while I had hoped he would find a second gear this season, it is becoming clear to me that he is never going to be more than what he is - a #2 or #3 scorer in the NBA.  But that is where the apologies end.

Maybe Jeff Green isnt part of the long term future on this team - but contrary to what Steve and Cow will have you believe - guys who can score 17 points a night in the NBA do not grow on trees.  And there are a lot of NBA teams who would be happy to take him on their team. Particularly at his very reasonable salary.

But at this point at the end of a bad season - there are too many hurt feelings and too many agenda's here to expect Green to get a fair shake.

And who should the Celtics replace Green with that can be afforded? Durant? George? James? Hmm, those are the only 3 SFs in this league BETTER than Green...



KJ

outside

I enjoy your posts, you definitely have vast knowledge of the game.

I was responding to bob's post game thread and section 5 of his post, I might have been a bit sarcastic, but bob is still one of my favorite writers/posters and a good friend. There are some posters here who have made excuses for Jeff Green and that is fine, he obviously has the ability to make highlight worthy plays, but like kleen stated, the night in night out grind, hes not durable enough to carry us for any real stretch, let alone an actual season. Hes never done it before and giving him a shot to prosper as a first option this season, hes shown hes very consistent at being inconsistent. He will never be an all star, hes a borderline starter in this league, if that is the production you want out of the 3 position going forward, then hope your happy....I want better.

I could have picked on Rondo or Bass, but Green had on paper a favorable match up and Rondo is not right yet, never heard of these guys on the Suns that kicked his ass on the floor. I think kj88 is delusional, hes 4th best SF in league? hes should kill guys like I never heard of on the Suns, instead he gets killed, better than Trevor Ariza or Gerald Green or any other run of the mill borderline SF in the league? hes at a very pedestrian level, routinely getting killed, losing match ups to no names.

cow

cowens/oldschool wrote:outside

I enjoy your posts, you definitely have vast knowledge of the game.

I was responding to bob's post game thread and section 5 of his post, I might have been a bit sarcastic, but bob is still one of my favorite writers/posters and a good friend. There are some posters here who have made excuses for Jeff Green and that is fine, he obviously has the ability to make highlight worthy plays, but like kleen stated, the night in night out grind, hes not durable enough to carry us for any real stretch, let alone an actual season. Hes never done it before and giving him a shot to prosper as a first option this season, hes shown hes very consistent at being inconsistent. He will never be an all star, hes a borderline starter in this league, if that is the production you want out of the 3 position going forward, then hope your happy....I want better.

I could have picked on Rondo or Bass, but Green had on paper a favorable match up and Rondo is not right yet, never heard of these guys on the Suns that kicked his ass on the floor. I think kj88 is delusional, hes 4th best SF in league? hes should kill guys like I never heard of on the Suns, instead he gets killed, better than Trevor Ariza or Gerald Green or any other run of the mill borderline SF in the league? hes at a very pedestrian level, routinely getting killed, losing match ups to no names.

cow

And your top ten SFs are? The only ones undeniably better than Jeff are K. Durant, P. George, and L. James. I never said Jeff was necessarily 4th best, but I did name 3 that he clearly is not better than. I suppose you could throw Carmelo Anthony in there as better than him, but then again Carmelo is also a volume shooter. Either way. please do not misquote me when making points. Thanks.

It's already been well stated that Green is not a #1 option. Even the people defending Jeff, including myself, have stated this. The fact that this matter is STILL being hashed out is utterly pointless.

Personally, I see no problem with Jeff's production. Sure, I'd like to see more rebounds and assists but otherwise, Jeff looks to be a good complimentary piece.



KJ

since you brought it up kj, where is his rank?

cowens/oldschool wrote:since you brought it up kj, where is his rank?

Top 10 at least, somewhere in the middle of that group. I haven't designated a specific number, but in either case, where he is in that group is hardly the most important point.

What is important is that, relative to his salary and those in the same range, his production is pretty good. Having a guy that averages upper teens and can go for 30+ is a plus.



KJ

Outside wrote:Cow, I assume your "why you so harsh to Jeff Green" comment was sarcastic.

But my followup question is this -- why single out Green? Why not Rondo, the superstar great defender who couldn't stop any of the Suns guards? Or Sullinger, who has been in a bigger funk than Green (10.6 PPG on 34.8% from the field since February 7). Or Bass, who has averaged 7.7 points on 32.4% shooting and four rebounds over the past four games?

It's not that Green doesn't deserve some criticism, because he does. The question is, why is Green the whipping boy while others are exempt from such scorn?

Also on Sully, the kid I believe is 21, coming off a concussion, playing out of position battling 5's, our best rebounder and inside presence, thats alot to ask for of this kid, bottomline hes still developing his game and can hold his own and could probably dominate as a 4. So I'll cut Sully some slack, as for Green hes 27 and usually has a matchup advantage physically as a 3, he had a great game yesterday, unfortunately I missed it.

cowens/oldschool wrote:I was responding to bob's post game thread and section 5 of his post, I might have been a bit sarcastic, but bob is still one of my favorite writers/posters and a good friend. There are some posters here who have made excuses for Jeff Green and that is fine, he obviously has the ability to make highlight worthy plays, but like kleen stated, the night in night out grind, hes not durable enough to carry us for any real stretch, let alone an actual season. Hes never done it before and giving him a shot to prosper as a first option this season, hes shown hes very consistent at being inconsistent. He will never be an all star, hes a borderline starter in this league, if that is the production you want out of the 3 position going forward, then hope your happy....I want better.

I could have picked on Rondo or Bass, but Green had on paper a favorable match up and Rondo is not right yet, never heard of these guys on the Suns that kicked his ass on the floor. I think kj88 is delusional, hes 4th best SF in league? hes should kill guys like I never heard of on the Suns, instead he gets killed, better than Trevor Ariza or Gerald Green or any other run of the mill borderline SF in the league? hes at a very pedestrian level, routinely getting killed, losing match ups to no names.

Cow,

I understand your criticism of Green. I wouldn't characterize it as "making excuses," but as someone who defends Green against the criticism, my main complaint isn't that he doesn't deserve criticism (he does); it's that he's criticized far more than anyone else and those who criticize him tend to downplay his positive contributions and just focus on the negative.

It's obviously been a tough season. A championship team can point to how every player's performance is enhanced because the parts mesh together so well, and on a team that is poorly constructed, every player's performance is negatively affected, and that has been the case for the Celtics this year. They were already not very good, and the season-ending injuries to Faverani and Wallace have made it that much tougher (though Vitor had largely fallen off the radar after a good start to the season) on everyone. They have a coach who should be very good in the long run but is still learning on the job. They obviously have no center and have struggled at the backup point guard spot (which was the starting point guard spot until Rondo returned), so the two biggest holes in their roster are what are traditionally considered the two most important positions. Given all that to start with, everyone has "excuses:"

Rondo -- still recovering from injury
Bradley -- beset by injury again
Sullinger, Humphries, Bass -- playing out of position at center much of the time, don't have a center to take pressure off
Green -- asked to be a primary scorer but not good at creating his own shot
Bayless -- joined mid-season, still learning the ropes
Olynyk -- rookie still learning
Pressey -- marginal talent, small but not lightning quick to compensate
Johnson -- mid-season pickup

This team plays a patchwork defense, but it's most apparent that it struggles on offense. Jordan Crawford has been gone for over two months, yet he is still the fifth-leading scorer on the season with 536 points, which shows how difficult it has been to find scoring. So despite not having the skillset of a primary scorer and despite not having one or two other at least equally capable scorers to relieve the defensive pressure, Jeff Green has scored 1,153 points for Boston this season, 353 more than the second man on that list, Jared Sullinger.

Add to that equation his salary, which is just under $9 million. Compare that to other small forwards. This list is in descending order by salary. In addition to field goal percentage, I included adjusted field goal percentage, which compensates for the extra value of three-pointers and gives a more realistic look at how efficient a player is.

Player	Points	FG %	Adj FG%	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Turnovers	Salary
Carmelo Anthony	28.0	45.4	50.6	8.3	3.1	1.2	2.5	$22.4 million
LeBron James	26.7	56.9	61.0	6.9	6.5	1.6	3.5	$19.1 million
Rudy Gay	20.1	45.5	48.4	6.1	2.9	1.4	3.0	$17.9 million
Kevin Durant	31.8	50.7	56.3	7.6	5.5	1.4	3.6	$17.8 million
Paul Pierce	17.1	43.7	51.2	6.0	3.2	1.4	2.8	$15.3 million
Luol Deng	16.9	43.3	46.6	6.1	2.9	1.1	2.0	$14.3 million
Josh Smith	16.7	41.8	44.4	7.1	3.4	1.5	2.6	$13.5 million
Andre Iguodala	9.3	46.9	53.6	4.6	4.2	1.6	1.7	$12.9 million
Tyreke Evans	13.4	41.9	43.1	4.6	4.7	1.1	2.2	$10.3 million
Nicolas Batum	13.2	45.6	54.3	7.3	5.1	1.0	2.7	$11.3 million
Richard Jefferson	10.1	44.5	53.9	2.8	1.6	0.7	1.3	$11.0 million
Danilo Galinari*	16.1	41.8	49.5	5.2	2.5	0.9	1.6	$10.1 million
Gerald Wallace	5.1	50.4	54.6	3.7	2.5	1.3	1.7	$10.1 million
Shawn Marion	10.4	47.5	51.4	6.5	1.6	1.2	1.2	$9.3 million
Jeff Green	17.2	41.5	47.2	4.8	1.6	0.6	1.9	$9.0 million

* Galinari's salary is for 2013-14; statistics are for 2012-13

His salary is 68th highest in the league and 15th highest among small forwards, yet here is how he ranks:

Scoring -- 44th in the league overall, 5th on the list above
Adjusted field goal percentage -- 12th on the list above
Rebounds -- 11th on the list above
Assists -- tied for 13th (last) on the list above
Steals -- 15th (last) on the list above
Turnovers -- 6th on the list above

So he's a mixed bag. His scoring and turnovers are very good, his rebounding and adjusted field goal percentage is okay, and he's weak in assists and steals.

Given all that, my argument isn't that Green is a great player or even a great small forward. My arguments are these:

• The Celtics are getting very good overall production and value from him considering his salary.

• If the Celtics have the opportunity to get a primary scorer at the small forward position, it would be perfectly reasonable to replace him, but as long as he's not expected to be a primary scorer, he could be a part of a title contender in the future.

• Singling him out for criticism over other players isn't justified.

Without Green this year, they'd be the 76ers.

Outside wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:I was responding to bob's post game thread and section 5 of his post, I might have been a bit sarcastic, but bob is still one of my favorite writers/posters and a good friend. There are some posters here who have made excuses for Jeff Green and that is fine, he obviously has the ability to make highlight worthy plays, but like kleen stated, the night in night out grind, hes not durable enough to carry us for any real stretch, let alone an actual season. Hes never done it before and giving him a shot to prosper as a first option this season, hes shown hes very consistent at being inconsistent. He will never be an all star, hes a borderline starter in this league, if that is the production you want out of the 3 position going forward, then hope your happy....I want better.

I could have picked on Rondo or Bass, but Green had on paper a favorable match up and Rondo is not right yet, never heard of these guys on the Suns that kicked his ass on the floor. I think kj88 is delusional, hes 4th best SF in league? hes should kill guys like I never heard of on the Suns, instead he gets killed, better than Trevor Ariza or Gerald Green or any other run of the mill borderline SF in the league? hes at a very pedestrian level, routinely getting killed, losing match ups to no names.

Cow,

I understand your criticism of Green. I wouldn't characterize it as "making excuses," but as someone who defends Green against the criticism, my main complaint isn't that he doesn't deserve criticism (he does); it's that he's criticized far more than anyone else and those who criticize him tend to downplay his positive contributions and just focus on the negative.

It's obviously been a tough season. A championship team can point to how every player's performance is enhanced because the parts mesh together so well, and on a team that is poorly constructed, every player's performance is negatively affected, and that has been the case for the Celtics this year. They were already not very good, and the season-ending injuries to Faverani and Wallace have made it that much tougher (though Vitor had largely fallen off the radar after a good start to the season) on everyone. They have a coach who should be very good in the long run but is still learning on the job. They obviously have no center and have struggled at the backup point guard spot (which was the starting point guard spot until Rondo returned), so the two biggest holes in their roster are what are traditionally considered the two most important positions. Given all that to start with, everyone has "excuses:"

Rondo -- still recovering from injury
Bradley -- beset by injury again
Sullinger, Humphries, Bass -- playing out of position at center much of the time, don't have a center to take pressure off
Green -- asked to be a primary scorer but not good at creating his own shot
Bayless -- joined mid-season, still learning the ropes
Olynyk -- rookie still learning
Pressey -- marginal talent, small but not lightning quick to compensate
Johnson -- mid-season pickup

This team plays a patchwork defense, but it's most apparent that it struggles on offense. Jordan Crawford has been gone for over two months, yet he is still the fifth-leading scorer on the season with 536 points, which shows how difficult it has been to find scoring. So despite not having the skillset of a primary scorer and despite not having one or two other at least equally capable scorers to relieve the defensive pressure, Jeff Green has scored 1,153 points for Boston this season, 353 more than the second man on that list, Jared Sullinger.

Add to that equation his salary, which is just under $9 million. Compare that to other small forwards. This list is in descending order by salary. In addition to field goal percentage, I included adjusted field goal percentage, which compensates for the extra value of three-pointers and gives a more realistic look at how efficient a player is.

Player	Points	FG %	Adj FG%	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Turnovers	Salary
Carmelo Anthony	28.0	45.4	50.6	8.3	3.1	1.2	2.5	$22.4 million
LeBron James	26.7	56.9	61.0	6.9	6.5	1.6	3.5	$19.1 million
Rudy Gay	20.1	45.5	48.4	6.1	2.9	1.4	3.0	$17.9 million
Kevin Durant	31.8	50.7	56.3	7.6	5.5	1.4	3.6	$17.8 million
Paul Pierce	17.1	43.7	51.2	6.0	3.2	1.4	2.8	$15.3 million
Luol Deng	16.9	43.3	46.6	6.1	2.9	1.1	2.0	$14.3 million
Josh Smith	16.7	41.8	44.4	7.1	3.4	1.5	2.6	$13.5 million
Andre Iguodala	9.3	46.9	53.6	4.6	4.2	1.6	1.7	$12.9 million
Tyreke Evans	13.4	41.9	43.1	4.6	4.7	1.1	2.2	$10.3 million
Nicolas Batum	13.2	45.6	54.3	7.3	5.1	1.0	2.7	$11.3 million
Richard Jefferson	10.1	44.5	53.9	2.8	1.6	0.7	1.3	$11.0 million
Danilo Galinari*	16.1	41.8	49.5	5.2	2.5	0.9	1.6	$10.1 million
Gerald Wallace	5.1	50.4	54.6	3.7	2.5	1.3	1.7	$10.1 million
Shawn Marion	10.4	47.5	51.4	6.5	1.6	1.2	1.2	$9.3 million
Jeff Green	17.2	41.5	47.2	4.8	1.6	0.6	1.9	$9.0 million

* Galinari's salary is for 2013-14; statistics are for 2012-13

His salary is 68th highest in the league and 15th highest among small forwards, yet here is how he ranks:

Scoring -- 44th in the league overall, 5th on the list above
Adjusted field goal percentage -- 12th on the list above
Rebounds -- 11th on the list above
Assists -- tied for 13th (last) on the list above
Steals -- 15th (last) on the list above
Turnovers -- 6th on the list above

So he's a mixed bag. His scoring and turnovers are very good, his rebounding and adjusted field goal percentage is okay, and he's weak in assists and steals.

Given all that, my argument isn't that Green is a great player or even a great small forward. My arguments are these:

• The Celtics are getting very good overall production and value from him considering his salary.

• If the Celtics have the opportunity to get a primary scorer at the small forward position, it would be perfectly reasonable to replace him, but as long as he's not expected to be a primary scorer, he could be a part of a title contender in the future.

• Singling him out for criticism over other players isn't justified.

Without Green this year, they'd be the 76ers.

outside,

An excellent, well-thought out and substantiated post, as usual.  Leave it to you bring things back to center.

My only disagreement is with your last line.  In order for us to be the 76ers Danny would have to trade Green and Sully and Rondo, like the way Sam Hinkie moved #2 pick Turner and Hawes and Allen for a boatload of second rounders, Danny Grainger (whom he immediately bought out, since that would conflict with the tank), Earl Clark (whom he immediately waived.  See Reason #1), Henry Sims and Eric Maynor (who just got waived).  I just want to be clear, it's easy to say we'd be the Sixers without Jeff Green, but Danny would have to work a lot harder than that to achieve the kind of peregrine falcon dive velocity Sam Hinkie has worked up.


bob


.

Well Bob, you're probably right. That was an unsubstantiated throw-away line at the end. Philly has a decent shot at ending the season with 36 straight losses, and they make the Lakers look capable by comparison. It would take more than losing Green to sink that low. Philly is poster child no. 1 for those looking to prove that tanking does exist.

However low you think they'd go, I don't think it's a stretch to say they'd be in a world of hurt without Jeff Green.

outside very good post, what is adjusted FG%?

As some on here may know, after working on it for about six months in 1982 and interviewing Red Auerbach, Pat Riley, Hubie Brown, Jack Ramsay and Stan Albeck to bounce ideas off them and get their feedback I developed the first statistical rating system for the NBA that combined all the categories they kept stats on and gave players a one number rating after totaling up everything, giving each category a specific rating both positive and negative, multiplying by how many times the player did that particular thing, divided it up by minutes played and multipliying it by 48.  That year I awarded the first trophy to Magic Johnson for it and a version of it became the Schick Pivotal Player award. The NBA did some tweaking of it that I didn't agree with - like factoring in the number of wins the player's team got, but that was their perogative once I got paid.  Before any of it got tweaked, Jack Ramsay, who is a coach I have always greatly admired for the way he coached the 1977 and '78 Trail Blazers, told me on tape, "For a system based purely on stats yours is the best one I've ever seen."  That knocked me out.  I still have that tape, including tapes of the interviews with all the other coaches.

All that is just a preface to the ongoing debate about Jeff Green and one poster's suggestion he may be better than all but three small forwards in the NBA.  

I decided to take a close look at all the league's SF's and apply my rating system.  Here are the rankings in order and their grade.  By the way, when I initially started rating hundreds of players it seemed that a rating of 24 was about league average, 30 was terrific, 36 was  basically top 10 in the league and anything over 40 was a rating for an All-Time player.  Bird and Magic used to perennially get ratings of between 42 and 48.

Here are the NBA small forwards, in order, according to my system.

1  - 46.75  Lebron James
2  - 44.52  Kevin Durant
3  - 33.00  Carmelo Anthony
4  - 32.77  Manu Ginobili
5  - 29.67  Paul George
6  - 29.51  Tyreke Evans
7  - 28.53  Nicolas Batum
8  - 27.36  Kawhi Leonard
9  - 27.32  Rudy Gay
10 - 26.21  Gordon Hayward
11 - 25.24  Thaddeus Young
12 - 24.60  Chandler Parsons
13 - 24.48  Danilo Gallinari
14 - 24.08  Trevor Ariza
15 - 23.90  Josh Smith
16 - 23.79  Paul Pierce
17 - 23.57  Luol Deng
18 - 23.52  Vince Carter
19 - 23.37  Andre Igoudala
20 - 22.95  Danny Granger
21 - 22.44  Evan Turner
22 - 21.77  Shawn Marion
23 - 19.60  Gerald Green
24 - 18.50  Giannis Antetokounmpo
25 - 18.47  Jeff Green
26 - 18.24  Jimmy Butler

I used Danilo Gallinari's stats from last year since he's been hurt this year and at just 25 years old, he has a good chance of recovering to his pre-injury level.

For Danny Granger, I used 2011-12, the last year he was healthy and included him on the list because he's still only 30 and I expect he still has a few good years left once he heals, to approach his '11-'12 numbers, which had slipped a bit from his previous years but he still averaged 18.7/5.0/1.8.

As you can see, Jeff Green ranks 25th of the top 26 small forwards in the league and the only one below him - Jimmy Butler - plays ferocious defense and I'd trade Jeff even up for Butler right now even if they were the same age - and Butler's is only 24, which makes him, hands down, a more attractive small forward right now than Green, with how much better he should get with a bit more playing time.

Tyreke Evans surprised me coming in so high but if you look at all his numbers closely, he has always been a very productive player.  I thought Chandler Parsons would finish a bit higher - I love his game but he's young and getting better.  He'll move up to top 6 or 8 small forwards in the league soon, I think.  Kawhi Leonard is getting better fast too.  He's terrific.

Gotta admit it's an interesting list.  And it doesn't surprise me where Jeff Green finished.  Certainly not fourth best small forward in the league as has been suggested.  Nowhere near.  Of the ones rated, second from the bottom in fact, overall.

I love Green as a person and admire the way he came back from his serious heart condition, but look at his last 8 games.  Four out of the eight were absolutely atrocious, one was great, two were good and one was below average.  That kind of inconsistency just drives me crazy about him, in addition to his glaring lack of production in some very key areas bearing witness to his low rating, dragging him down below many other small forwards in the league.

Let the debate continue...

cowens/oldschool wrote:outside very good post, what is adjusted FG%?

Adjusted field goal percentage, also called effective field goal percentage, compensates for the differing values of two-point field goals and three-point field goals.

For example, for any player who makes 4-10 shots, his "regular" FG percentage is 40%.

If player A is 4-10 of all field goals and two of those field goals were threes, each three-pointer is worth 1.5 times a two-pointer, so 2 two-pointers plus 2 x 1.5 for three pointers means the adjusted FG percentage is 50%:

2 x 1 = 2 for the two-pointers
2 x 1.5 = 3 for the three-pointers
2 + 3 = 5
divide that by the number of shot attempts, so 5 divided by 10 = 0.50 or 50%

Adjusted FG percentage is a way to accurately compensate for the fact that making a lower percentage on threes can contribute as much to a team's scoring as shooting a higher percentage on twos.

steve3344 wrote:Here are the NBA small forwards, in order, according to my system.

1  - 46.75  Lebron James
2  - 44.52  Kevin Durant
3  - 33.00  Carmelo Anthony
4  - 32.77  Manu Ginobili
5  - 29.67  Paul George
6  - 29.51  Tyreke Evans
7  - 28.37  Gordon Hayward
8  - 27.36  Kawhi Leonard
9  - 27.32  Rudy Gay
10 - 25.24  Thaddeus Young
11 - 24.60  Chandler Parsons
12 - 24.48  Danilo Gallinari
13 - 24.08  Trevor Ariza
14 - 23.90  Josh Smith
15 - 23.79  Paul Pierce
16 - 23.57  Luol Deng
17 - 23.52  Vince Carter
18 - 23.37  Andre Igoudala
19 - 22.95  Danny Granger
20 - 22.44  Evan Turner
21 - 21.77  Shawn Marion
22 - 19.60  Gerald Green
23 - 18.50  Giannis Antetokounmpo
24 - 18.47  Jeff Green
25 - 18.24  Jimmy Butler

I used Danilo Gallinari's stats from last year since he's been hurt this year and at just 25 years old, he has a good chance of recovering to his pre-injury level.

For Danny Granger, I used 2011-12, the last year he was healthy and included him on the list because he's still only 30 and I expect he still has a few good years left once he heals, to approach his '11-'12 numbers, which had slipped a bit from his previous years but he still averaged 18.7/5.0/1.8.

As you can see, Jeff Green ranks 24th of the top 25 small forwards in the league and the only one below him - Jimmy Butler - plays ferocious defense and I'd trade Jeff even up for Butler right now even if they were the same age - and Butler's is only 24, which makes him, hands down, a more attractive small forward right now than Green, with how much better he should get with a bit more playing time.

Tyreke Evans surprised me coming in so high but if you look at all his numbers closely, he has always been a very productive player.  I thought Chandler Parsons would finish a bit higher - I love his game but he's young and getting better.  He'll move up to top 6 or 8 small forwards in the league soon, I think.  Kawhi Leonard is getting better fast too.  He's terrific.

Gotta admit it's an interesting list.  And it doesn't surprise me where Jeff Green finished.  Certainly not fourth best small forward in the league as has been suggested.  Nowhere near.  Of the ones rated, second from the bottom in fact, overall.

Steve,

I don't know the ins and outs of your system, but these rankings make me think that it needs some tweaking. How does a guy like Giannis Antetokounmpo, who gets 6.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game rank basically the same as Jeff Green at 17.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game? How is Manu no. 4 on your list at 12.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 4.4 assists? Kawhi Leonard is nice young player, but I don't see how his 12.0 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 1.8 assists are remarkably better than Green. Gordon Hayward has stats very similar to Green:

Green / Hayward
Points -- 17.2 / 15.8
FG percentage -- 41.5 / 40.9
Adjusted FG percentage --  47.2 / 45.2
FT percentage -- 78.8 / 81.7
Rebounds -- 4.8 / 5.5
Assists -- 1.6 / 5.3
Steals -- 0.6 / 1.4
Turnovers --1.9 / 2.8 turnovers

Hayward has a clear advantage in assists and steals. Otherwise, Green has the advantage or they're basically comparable. So how is Hayward no. 7 and Green no. 24, with Hayward's score almost a full 10 points higher?

Tyreke Evans -- 13.4 points, 41.9 FG%, a woeful 43.1 adjusted FG%, 78.8 FT%, 4.6 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.1 steals, 2.2 turnovers, yet no. 5 on your list and and over 11 points higher on your ranking scale?

I could keep going with other players on the list. What am I missing here?

Outside - What you're missing is it's based on MINUTES played, not GAMES played, which is the great equalizer.  Giannis plays 24 minutes a game, Green 34.4.  And Giannis has basically the same rebounds and assists in those 24 as Green does in his 34, plus a LOT more blocks offsetting his lower scoring, giving them a virtual identical rating.

The system doesn't need tweaking or Jack Ramsay wouldn't have called it the best one he'd ever seen based on stats.  I'll play you the tape sometime.  And also the ones with Hubie Brown, Pat Riley and Red, who also had their valuable input and suggestions.

Again, don't compare games played.  That doesn't give players who play less minutes a fair shake.  And I don't take anyone's stats real seriously who plays less than 20 minutes a game because those are not regular rotation players.

As for Manu Ginobili, how can you question his effectiveness having watched him play the past 12 years? He's always been an incredibly efficient player on a per minute basis.  Possibly going to make the Hall of Fame when he's done or at least get serious consideration.  Very underrated player.  And even slowing down a bit, he's still contributing in a lot of different ways as his rating shows.  He's only playing 23 minutes a game this year - 11.4 a game less than Green and getting almost THREE TIMES Green's assists.  As well as shooting 47.2% from the field and 86.2% from the line.  If Ginobili got Green's minutes he'd be scoring 18.7 points a game, more than Green's 17.0.  That how the system works.

See?

So FG% FT% and 3 point% are all factored in, as are every stat, some of these players are G/F and play in the backcourt more enabling them to control the ball more, leading to more assists....just saying.

steve3344 wrote:As for Manu Ginobili, how can you question his effectiveness having watched him play the past 12 years? He's always been an incredibly efficient player on a per minute basis.  Possibly going to make the Hall of Fame when he's done or at least get serious consideration.  Very underrated player.  And even slowing down a bit, he's still contributing in a lot of different ways as his rating shows.  He's only playing 23 minutes a game this year - 11.4 a game less than Green and getting almost THREE TIMES Green's assists.  As well as shooting 47.2% from the field and 86.2% from the line.  If Ginobili got Green's minutes he'd be scoring 18.7 points a game, more than Green's 17.0.  That how the system works.

See?

Steve

I will defer to your expertise here - but I guess I dont understand where your "calculations" take into account other factors that are clearly at play when explaining why someone is playing X or Y minutes.

Ginobli isnt getting the same minutes as Green because his body cant handle that level of play at this point in his career.  He is 36 years old and has been injured in every season in the NBA (Manu missed more than 150 career games to injury).  A great player who cannot stay on the court has to have that lack of durability scored against him for any statistical calculation to be valid - at least IMO.

Mrkleen

Agree with Manu and on top of that, look who they play with, how much are they relied upon on scoring, handling the ball, ect. Many of those players listed ahead of green are the FOCUS of the offense, some are the 2nd or third option.


And how many had their chest opened up for major heart surgery a little over 2 years ago?

beat