A Historical Look At Point Guard Height As A Predictor For NBA Success

MY NOTE:  This article was published on 6/11/13 by a Salt Lake City blogger and focuses on their 1st round pick, Trey Burke.  I thought the topic and analysis, overall, might be worth discussing. Is there a correlation between height, and whatever ability to look over the defense and watch plays develop that provides, and success?


http://saltcityhoops.com/how-much-has-height-of-point-guards-mattered-historically/




Historical look at point guard height as a predictor for NBA success
July 11th, 2013 | by Clint Johnson




Photo courtesy Utah Jazz.



Trey Burke has had a rough welcome to the NBA in his first three Summer League games in Orlando: shooting just 9 of 41.  He’s struggled finishing inside and had problems getting the same separation for jump shots he created in college. But whether good or bad, there is little fans can draw from these three lone games to project whether Burke will live up to his hype (favorite for Rookie of the Year, characterization as the best point guard in the draft. etc.).

But that question—just how good can Trey Burke be?—has become the crux of the upcoming season of hope, as well as the Jazz’s future. Like the businessman who controls the corporation’s purse strings, much of what will happen on the court next season for the Jazz will go through Burke.

This first Summer League game showed the liabilities that cause some to question Burke’s ceiling in the NBA: his lack of height and explosiveness make it hard to finish near the hoop, result in contested jump shots, and put him at a disadvantage against bigger, heavier point guards.  Some of these difficulties will certainly be resolved as Burke adjusts to the NBA game, but will Burke’s stature prove a significant and permanent liability?

Let’s see what the numbers say.

Consider every rookie point guard since 1990 to play 20 or more minutes per game.  (Note that I characterized their career ability level–bench, starter, etc.–according to peak quality of play and not style.  Thus, dynamic bench players like Bobby Jackson and Leandro Barbosa are listed as starters, because I think their games at their best were at the level of a respectable starter in the league.)


Name---------------Height-----Age-----MP/G-----W/L-----PER---------Career
Chris Paul-----------6’0”--------20------36.0-----.449-----22.1---------HoF
Kyrie Irving----------6’2”--------19------30.5-----.318-----21.4---------All-Star
Steve Francis--------6’3”--------22------36.1-----.415-----18.4---------All-Star
Tyreke Evans--------6’6”--------20------37.2------.305-----18.2--------Star
Allen Iverson---------6’0”--------21------40.1------.244-----18.0--------HoF
Andre Miller----------6’2”--------23------25.5-------.390-----17.9-------Star
Isaiah Thomas-------5’9”--------22-------25.5------.333-----17.6------Starter
Brevin Knight--------5’10”-------22-------31.0------.573------17.1-----Starter
Gilbert Arenas--------6’3”--------20------24.6-------.256-----17.0-----All-Star
Damon Stoudamire----5’10”------22------40.9-------.256------16.7-----Star
Darren Collison--------6’0”-------22------27.8-------.451------16.5-----Starter
Ty Lawson------------5’11”------22------20.3-------.646------16.4-----Star
Damian Lillard---------6’3”-------22-------38.6-------.402------16.4----Star
Stephen Curry--------6’3”-------21-------36.2-------.317------16.3-----All-Star
Ramon Sessions-------6’3”-------21-------26.5-------.317------16.2----Starter
Stephon Marbury------6’2”-------19-------34.7-------.489------16.1----All-Star
Derrick Rose----------6’3”--------20-------37.0-------.500------16.0----All-Star
John Wall-------------6’4”--------20-------37.8-------.280-----15.8-----Star
Russell Westbrook-----6’3”-------20--------32.5-------.280-----15.2-----All-Star
Jason Kidd------------6’4”-------21---------33.8------.439-----15.1------HoF
DJ Augustin-----------6’0”-------21---------26.5------.427------14.9-----Starter
Kemba Walker---------6’1”-------21---------27.2------.106------14.9-----Star
Mike Bibby------------6’1”-------20---------35.2-------.160------14.8-----Star
Ricky Rubio-----------6’4”-------21---------34.2--------.394-----14.6------Star
Brandon Jennings------6’1”-------20---------32.6-------.561------14.5-----Star
Jameer Nelson---------6’0”-------22---------20.4-------.439------14.5-----All-Star
Raymond Felton--------6’1”------21---------30.1--------.317------14.2-----Star
Chauncey Billups-------6’3”------21----------27.7--------.341------13.6----All-Star
Bobby Jackson---------6’1”------24----------30.0--------.134------13.6----Starter
Nick Van Exel----------6’1”------22----------33.3--------.402-------13.6----All-Star
Jamaal Tinsley---------6’3”------23----------30.5--------.512-------13.4----Star
Mario Chalmers---------6’1”------22----------32.0--------.524-------13.3-----Starter
Gary Payton------------6’4”-----22----------27.4---------.500-------13.2-----HoF
Kirk Hinrich-------------6’3”-----23-----------35.6--------.280-------13.1-----Starter
Rajon Rondo------------6’1”-----20-----------23.5--------.293-------13.1-----All-Star
Jonny Flynn------------6’0”-----20------------28.9-------.183--------13.0-----Bench
Jason Williams----------6’1”-----23-----------36.1--------.540--------12.8-----Starter
Leandro Barbosa--------6’3”-----21-----------21.4--------.354--------12.7-----Starter
JR Bremer---------------6’2”-----22-----------23.5--------.537--------12.7-----Bench
Speedy Claxton---------5’11”----23-----------22.8---------.524-------12.6------Bench
Mike Conley-------------6’1”-----20-----------26.1---------.268-------12.6------Star
Nate Robinson-----------5’9”-----21-----------21.4---------.280-------12.6------Starter
Deron Williams-----------6’3”-----21-----------28.8---------.500-------12.4------All-Star
Jrue Holiday-------------6’3”-----19------------24.2--------.329--------12.3------All-Star
Jarrett Jack-------------6’3”-----22------------20.2--------.256--------12.3------Starter
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf-----6’1”-----21-----------22.5---------.244--------12.2------Starter
Jay Williams-------------6’2”-----21------------26.1---------.366--------12.2------Bench
TJ Ford-----------------6’0”-----20------------26.8---------.500--------12.1------Starter
Lindsey Hunter----------6’2”-----23------------26.5---------.244--------12.0------Starter
Brandon Knight----------6’3”-----20------------32.3---------.379--------11.7------Starter
Tony Parker-------------6’2”-----19------------29.4---------.707--------11.7------All-Star
Jose Calderon-----------6’3”-----24------------23.2---------.329---------11.4------Star
Luther Head-------------6’3”-----23------------20.0---------.415--------11.2--------Bench
Anthony Carter----------6’1”-----24------------23.5---------.634--------11.0-------Bench
Alexey Shved------------6’6”-----24------------23.9---------.378--------11.0-------Bench
Eric Bledsoe-------------6’1”-----21------------22.7---------.390--------10.8-------Starter
Shaun Livingston--------6’7”-----19-------------27.1---------.451--------10.4-------Starter
Darrick Martin-----------5’11”----23------------23.6---------.256--------10.3-------Bench
Antonio Daniels----------6’4”-----22------------26.4---------.232---------9.9--------Starter
Chris Duhon-------------6’1”-----22------------26.5----------.573--------9.8--------Bench
Bobby Hurley------------6’0”-----22------------26.3----------.341--------8.4---------Bench

That’s 61 players.  Trey Burke will become number 62 this season, and he’s not the only one six foot or shorter.  Historically, how has height affected point guards in their rookie season and beyond?

The tables below explore this question.  I focused on rookies who played 20 or more minutes a game both because Jazz fans want to know what to expect from Trey Burke long term based on his rookie performance (no one wants to wait to draw conclusions) and because I assume a height disadvantage would be most noticeable in a rookie year, when a player is adapting to superior NBA athletes.


Trey Burke: Starter, Star, or All-Star?

Does height have a bearing on developmental potential?  Historically, yes.  What the numbers suggest is a mixed bag when it comes to implications for Trey Burke.

Height-----------Starter-----Star-----All-Star

5’9”--------------100%------0%------0%

5’10”-------------100%------50%-----0%

5’11”-------------33%-------33%-----0%

6’0”--------------75%-------38%-----38%

6’1”--------------86%-------50%-----14%

6’2”--------------71%-------57%-----43%

6’3”--------------94%-------65%-----47%

6’4”--------------100%------80%-----40%

6’6”--------------50%-------50%-----0%

6’7”--------------100%------0%------0%


First, the good news.  History suggests that a 6’0” guard who earns 20 minutes per game or more his rookie season will develop into at least a passable starting caliber player 75% of the time.  Statistically speaking, there is little difference between the prospects of a 6’0” point guard and someone 6’2” when it comes to becoming a starter.

There is less correlation when it comes to all-star status, which is also good news for Burke.  Since 1990, it has been extremely difficult for players under 6’0” to become all-stars, indeed, no point guard has done it.  6’0” appears to be something of a threshold; from 6’0” to 6’4”, most every height has between a 38% and 47% chance of becoming an all-star, with taller players having a slight advantage.

This suggests Burke’s height: 1) is unlikely to be a major hindrance in his development as a passable starter; and 2) has about as good a shot of becoming an all-star as any other point guard, regardless of height.

Now the bad news.  There is a clear correlation between increasing height and a player’s likelihood of achieving stardom, which I define as a top three role on his team for the purpose of this analysis.  In the last two decades plus, the taller a team’s point guard, the more likely he has developed into a top two or three focal point of the team.  Generally speaking, the players who manage to buck this trend have an excellent chance of becoming all-stars.

So height’s relation to point guard upside is something of feast or fast (not famine).  History suggests that Trey Burke will probably become a starting caliber point guard.  If he wants to be better than that, he will have to beat the odds.  If he is one of those high achievers, the chances are good he will be able to retire from basketball with the title “all-star” attached to his name.


Is Trey Burke Truly Short for His Position?

Statistically, the claim that Burke is short for a point guard is only somewhat true.  The following table shows the breakdown of all these rookie point guards grouped by height.

Height-----% of Total Population

5’9″--------3%

5’10″-------3%

5’11″-------5%

6’0″--------13%

6’1″--------23%

6’2″--------11%

6’3″--------28%

6’4″--------8%

6’6″--------3%

6’7″--------1%

75% of these point guards have been between 6’0” and 6’4”; players shorter or taller are the major outliers.  36% are either 6’0” or 6’1”, and 47% are 6’1” or shorter.  Given Burke’s long arms and good if not great athleticism, I doubt he is at a physical disadvantage against most of the 6’1” point guards in the league.  Physically, he’s likely right in the meaty middle of the bell curve for point guard stature.


How Quickly Will It Take Burke to Get up to Speed?

Burke is an early favorite for Rookie of the Year.  Many, including a hoard of hopeful Jazz fans, are anticipating he’ll hit the court running much in the way Damian Lillard did last year.  Lillard posted a stellar 19 points, 6.5 assists, and 3.1 rebounds last season, earning a personal efficiency rating (PER) of 16.4.  (PER is a measure of per-minute production standardized so that the league average is 15, and is one of the single statistics commonly used to represent a player’s overall quality of play.)

Lillard is 6’3”, though.  Will Burke’s height create a greater adjustment period than Lillard experienced, hampering Burke’s ability to perform at a high level his rookie reason?  The statistical verdict: Nope.  The following chart lists the average PER for these players at each height in their rookie year.

Height-----PER

5’9″-------15.1

5’10″------16.9

5’11″------13.1

6’0″-------14.9

6’1″-------12.9

6’2″-------14.9

6’3″-------14.1

6’4″-------13.7

6’6″-------14.6

6’7″-------10.4

Strange that three of the four highest averages are for heights beneath 6’1”, but there you go.  Apparently, the shorter point guards who earn enough trust to play 20 or more minutes as rookies are really prepared to contribute right away.  Six of the 20 rookies who posted average or above PERs were 6’0” or shorter.  Those players make up only 25% of the total population, but they account for 30% of the average or above PERs.

The numbers say the shorter guys are, if anything, MORE ready to play efficiently as rookies than their taller counterparts.


Conclusions

The past 23 seasons of NBA basketball suggest that Trey Burke’s height may be a limiting factor in his development and ultimate potential as a player, but not as significantly as some suggest.  These 61 rookie point guards are not a huge sample size to draw from, particularly when subdivided by height, but they are the closest peers to Burke available: rookie point guards good enough to earn significant minutes on the court right off the bat.

The numbers suggest that Burke’s height may be a legitimate obstacle to his rising from Jazz starter to star prominence on the team.  Whether this is because height limits effectiveness on the court or the perceptions of the teams themselves limit opportunity and status is not clear.  Likely, there is some of both going on.  Teams want prototypical 6’3” point guards because they’ve been very successful and they’ve been successful because teams look for players who fit that profile.  Take the chicken or the egg, your pick.

Projecting Burke’s career based solely upon his height is foolish, either to condemn or exalt.  He is very much more than his stature. Height is a part of Trey Burke, not the whole of him.  The numbers suggest that Burke’s height may sometimes prove an obstacle to meeting Jazz fans’ hopes and his own goals—he publicly declared he thinks he can become an all-star—but they also show stature deficiencies like his are far from impossible to overcome, even in a rookie season.  Add the entire package that is Trey Burke to those odds, and you have what looks like a solid bet and a very good NBA player.




bob



.

Nate Robinson is only 5'10" I think and he's made a nice impact in the league. But smaller players in the league tend to have trouble finishing at the rim because defenders are easily able to bother their shot. And if they can't shoot from the outside, they're very limited (i.e. Pressey).

This shows that PGs 6'0" to 6'4" all have a rather good chance, as opposed to being any taller or shorter than that range. But most PGs tend to be in that range anyway, so mathematically speaking, PGs at that height will have a higher rate of success.



KJ

Again with the statistics.  The writer was working with data on 62 or 63 players, right?  And, in most of his analyses, he broke down the data into ten height groupings.  That's an average of a sample of 6.2 or 6.3 per grouping.  And, since there are usually differences between groupings, there could even have been some groups represented by only one or two players.  Just to prove I'm not a crazy anti-stat fabricator, check out how many PGs on his list were 6' 7".  I see only one—Livingston.  And yet he reports, presumably with a straight face, that 100% of the playerS in the 6' 7" group were starters.

I was figuratively careening down a hill after I read the first part of his diatribe; but, when he resorted to the PER statistic (aka Offense Incorporated), I went full tilt into a hedge.  With the emphasis on TILT.

Sam

I appreciate that he went through all that effort to compile a list of 61 players to prove his point, but I think he overkilled himself, not because he used PER (a defensively-challenged stat) but because he included information that has too many other factors built into them they lose their applicability.  For example, why did a player start or come off the bench?  Did they start because they were a high draft pick on a truly execrable team (e.g. Michael Carter-Williams on this year's world-class awful Philadelphia Stinkers) or was it because another player was considered better and more experienced at the time or because the team has a history of easing rookies into the system (e.g. Rondo only started in 25 of 78 games in his rookie year, behind Delonte West)?  What matters, it seems to me, is the end result and not how they started (although I don't blame the author for this, after all the whole point of this article by this SLC blogger was to try and project forward the career of a Utah Jazz rookie).  If end results are all that matter then maybe we can simplify and clarify this by only looking at those players on that list that ended up, or will end up, in the HOF.  That is the ultimate, irrefutable definition of "NBA Success".  Regardless of whether you are defensively-challenged (e.g. AI) or defensively-focused (e.g. The Glove), a shoot-first (e.g. Westbrook) or pass-first (e.g. Rondo) point guard, if you're in the HOF you've got game.  So, what's the list now?  You may choose to add or delete some, since I'm doing a little projecting myself of active players.


Name--------------------Height
Chris Paul----------------6'0"
Kyrie Irving---------------6'2"
Allen Iverson-------------6'0"
Isaiah Thomas------------6'1" (he uses the current Isaiah Thomas, I'm using Zeke of the Bad Boy Pistons)
Stephen Curry------------6'3"
Russell Westbrook---------6'3"
Jason Kidd----------------6'4"
Gary Payton---------------6'4"
Rajon Rondo---------------6'1"
Deron Williams-------------6'3"
Tony Parker---------------6'2"


A simpler, more manageable list.  Exceptions?  Sure, Magic was 6'9" and Tiny was very charitably listed at 6'1", nevertheless...

No PER, no starting mpg, no influence of who else was on the roster with them and was it balanced, what style of play did the coach want, none of that.  Just "At the end of their careers are they in the HOF (or probably going) or not?".



bob


.

Upon reading this I thought, WTF, How could Zeke not be named as an All-Star, and wasn't he 6'1"?

Then I realized he was talking about that 5'9" shrimp like me, the modern Isaiah. Tough name to live up to.

W,

I guess spelling his first name differently doesn't help much.

Sam

Subtle difference ...Isaiah vs. Isiah ..

reminds me of the Robert Frost poem...


The Road Not Taken

By Robert Frost

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;
Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that the passing there
Had worn them really about the same,

And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted if I should ever come back.

I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.