Preparing for Reality

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Post by Sam Wed Sep 24, 2014 4:15 pm

Okay, we've paid our dues.  We've done our penance both last season and over the summer.  We've culped every mia in sight, suffered the lashes of disappointment over lack of fireworks, and been melted into plasma by the benign offerings of alleged writers who know only one word: repetition.  Those who love predictions have had their fill.

It's time to start focusing—in advance—on reality.  Just as one anticipates the arrival of a wave on the shore, we should be gearing up for the realities of the season  Identifying the most salient factors to track.  Setting benchmarks for tracking progress.

There have been recent reports on how the brunt of the responsibility for the upcoming season will fall on Brad Stevens.  That's probably true.  But, rather than simply agreeing, I thought I'd make his chores an initial post in what I hope will become a litany of independent observations from all of you.  Briefly put, this thread will deal with insights into how to prepare for the season—what to be watching for, anticipated challenges, possible contingencies and how to deal with them, little clues to watch for along the way....anything that will add perspective to the realities of the 2014-15 season as it progresses. Of course we can't ignore what we've learned from offseason bulletins, but it would be nice if all contributed opinions or conclusions were our own rather than quotes from the media.


Dealing with an insufficiency of Top Talent

It seems evident that the Celtics don't have many top players (perhaps only one—if he's still here during the season).  When you don't have many great players, what you do is (1) make the most of complementarity between players, (2) design a system to take maximum advantage of the players you have, (3) leave no stone unturned in terms of observing the details on which Brad places so much emphasis, and (4) keep your focus on a realistic goal.

The area of complementary players could be Brad's biggest challenge.  My definition of complementary players is players whose greatest individual strengths are different from one another and upgrade the totality of their collective strengths.

Despite the fact that the guard positions are widely expected to be a relative strength of the team, those positions could arguably give Brad the biggest headaches in terms of complementarity.  If Rondo's still with the team, I obviously hope he has a great year.  But, even at his very best, he's not anything approaching a panacea in the backcourt.  He can't do it all; in fact, I have a lurking question as to how he'll handle a motion offense.

Which brings me to my number one concern about the backcourt.  Are the skills of the backcourt players really complementary?

Signs point to the possibility that Brad will emphasize the motion offense in his attempt to identify an offensive system that can be more effective than last year's.  If Rondo struggles or rebels where the motion offense is concerned, does Brad junk that system in mid-season?  If Brad insists on implementing that offense, should someone other than Rondo get a slice of the minutes at the "1" position?

I happen to believe that Pressey could potentially be a better fit for a motion offense than Rondo is.  But I doubt any of us can envision Pressey seriously cutting into Rondo's minutes because Pressey has other drawbacks—notably his shooting problems and his lack of height on defense (although I believe he's one of the harder triers on the team in the defensive end).  This is where the lack of complementarity begins to kick in.  Pressey doesn't necessarily complement Rondo all that well as the floor general of the team.  In a way, they're too similar.

The one thing they can both do very well is run a transition offense, with Rondo having a pretty strong edge.  But who's best-suited to fill a lane at the other guard position?  I'm sure most people would immediately counter with "Bradley."  But exactly what, besides speed, suits Bradley to a wing position on the break?  He drove me nuts in his inability to finish well last season—either out of a halfcourt set or at breakneck transition speed.  He used to be effective on the baseline, although he seldom seemed to do that last season; but shooting layups from anywhere within a 45º angle to the backboard seems to confuse him.  And he's not all that great a ballhandler in the fast break.

And, although Avery probably retains a disruptive ability in the open court (I say "probably" because I didn't see nearly as much of that last season as in previous years), I don't see him as enough of a disrupter in a half court defense to counter the fact that a backcourt of either Rondo or Pressey and Bradley would have to be one of the shortest in the league.  It's relatively easy for opponents' offenses to see over them and to shoot over them.

From a defensive toughness standpoint, Smart could potentially become a better partner than Bradley for with Rondo or Pressey.  But someone has to shoot the ball reliably; and, when I last saw him during summer league, Smart didn't look like a reliable shooter, which Avery has become with his greatly improved outside prowess.

Any configuration with Smart at the "1" is somewhere below tentative in my estimation because I'm unconvinced that he possesses a "feel" for that position.  One possible glimmer is that a motion offense doesn't call for the "1" to be a real floor general or even a great passer.  He just has to do his part like everyone else.  And one element in doing his part would often involve a quick slant to the hoop at the right moment.  That should be right in Smart's wheelhouse, whether at the "2" or "1."

I'm sure one could throw Thornton or even Turner into the backcourt mix, and they would complement either Rondo or Pressey in the sense of being professional gunslingers.  But I've got Thornton earmarked as a possible sixth man, where his shoot first, second and third mentality could be an advantage (by racking up points in bunches) rather than a detriment that would screw up the rhythm of a traditional half court set or a motion offense.

And Turner, in my current opinion (subject to change), could be instrumental in establishing the team's single most complementary position.  I believe that, under ideal conditions (which never occur), Evan and Jeff could come closest to forming a perpetual motion team of small forwards that never takes its foot off the pedal.  I also believe they would complement one another as Mr. Outside and Mr. Inside so that opponents would continually have to adapt their defenses to whichever of them is on the floor.  Anything to get the opponent back on his heels while you're also wearing him out.

Ostensibly, the power forward position should be the most complementary.  After all, you've got another Inside-Outside combination of Sully (if he lays off all the threes) and Kelly.  And Bass could accent the complementarity by being "Mr. In-between."

Coming off a season where real centers played sparingly in favor of power forwards who had difficulty stretching, the arrival of Zeller has balanced things to a degree.  But the way I view it is that there is still imbalance among the big men: 3 to 1 in favor of power forwards to center.  So, pending the signing of another center (is it possible that Turner could gain half a foot before signing?), I lump both spots into one rotational big man group.

I believe a combination of Zelly with either Sully, Kelly or Brandy (what the heck, go for it) would produce complementary results.  I can see Zeller playing somewhere in the lane but moving around...posting, re-posting, etc...leaving space for Sully to operate down low.  Alternatively, I can see Zeller benefiting from the space created by Kelly playing the high post and even setting real picks (are you reading this, Vitor?) for Kelly to take it to the hoop.  I don't expect Steady Eddie Bass to be with the team long-term.  But, while he is, I actually hope his defense will become more of a calling card in the tradition of guys named Sanders, Maxwell and (Eric) Williams.  Among the trio of Sully, Kelly and Brandy, I believe Brandy could provide the best defensive complement to Zeller.

It's when Zeller's out of the game that the complementarity of the big man group becomes more questionable.  Yes, Sully (inside) and Kelly (outside) can complement one another offensively with their shooting and passing.  But their combined defensive "strengths" are too "iffy" to be called complementary.  Actually, when Zeller's out of the game, I might prefer to see Bass playing in tandem with either Sully or Kelly.  It's this vulnerability of the big man positions without Zeller in the lineup that causes me to think of their complementarity as limited.

Brad's emphasis on detail is not just some catch word.  It can be dramatically important and can make the difference between a team that is just successful enough to lose (2013-14 anyone?) and a team that can put forth the little extra to turn close losses into close wins.

Brad obviously has many details in mind.  But the one that whacks me in the face involves execution.  Simply put, they struggled with it last season, and I hope that—even if they have a mediocre season this year because of lack of sheer ability—they'll make giant strides in learning how to execute with one another.  Better that than forming two lines against the wall and executing one another.

And executional improvement is a must at both ends of the court.  On offense, get the ball into the forecourt in a hurry, fast break or not.  Run the first option early enough in the clock the opponent isn't set and you have an opportunity to try another option or two if option one fails.  Set hard picks (are you listening, V.... (oh screw it!).  Forget cross-court passing invitations to steals.  Spacing, spacing, spacing.  Crisp passes, the shorter the better....no lobs.  Anticipate the move after the move.  Shoot only good shots you can make; and remember that, even if you have a good shot, someone else may still have a better shot.  Play smartly.  And attack, attack, attack.

On defense, slow down the opponent at every point of his attack.  Whatever scheme the braintrust institutes, realize that if will fail if just one player doesn't follow it to the letter on a given play.  See plays forming in their incipient stages, and be prepared to thwart them.  Don't leave the corners so uncovered.  Have each other's backs, fronts, and sides covered.  Move decisively; a millisecond lost in indecision is unrecoverable.  And, as on offense, attack, attack, attack.  

As for goals, it's obviously important to win every game.  But, in order to keep frustration from settling in based on the won/lost record, base expectations on the degree of development/improvement that has been maintained.  That should be the barometer for success this season.  Instead of a glimmer thread, I'm going to start a "Development Barometer" thread periodically this season.  I don't know exactly what the frequency and format will be, but I'll figure it out.  I hope everyone will contribute.  Think of it this way: If the Celtics win the championship, we could have the only diary of their path to the top.  Okay, Sam, settle down and get real.

So, as my initial contribution to this thread, I've tried to highlight the ramifications of some of the lineup/rotation challenges that could confront Brad as he tries to make Orange Julius from oranges.  (This team is not a lemon.)

Go Celtics!

Sam


Last edited by sam on Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:34 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by kdp59 Thu Sep 25, 2014 8:37 am

great piece.

since I am more of a "why talk details when the obvious will do" kinda guy.......

my short and un-sweet reality for the coming season.

1) someone will be traded.

2) The Celtics will be a lottery team.

3) The Rondo trade talk continues up to the trade deadline.

boy, I really went out on a limb there!
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Post by NYCelt Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:31 am

Sam,

I think I'll just read your stuff and skip the big media outlets.  What a great summary.  Before I get into some actual work this morning, I thought I'd use the shortcut method and without much depth or detail just piggy-back my comments on a couple of things you mention.  I think this could be a good season for those who like mysteries and watching plots develop.  


sam wrote:The one thing they can both do very well is run a transition offense, with Rondo having a pretty strong edge.  But who's best-suited to fill a lane at the other guard position?  I'm sure most people would immediately counter with "Bradley."  But exactly what, besides speed, suits Bradley to a wing position on the break?  He drove me nuts in his inability to finish well last season—either out of a halfcourt set or at breakneck transition speed.  He used to be effective on the baseline, although he seldom seemed to do that last season; but shooting layups from anywhere within a 45º angle to the backboard seems to confuse him.  And he's not all that great a ballhandler in the fast break.

And, although Avery probably retains a disruptive ability in the open court (I say "probably" because I didn't see nearly as much of that last season as in previous years), I don't see him as enough of a disrupter in a half court defense to counter the fact that a backcourt of either Rondo or Pressey and Bradley would have to be one of the shortest in the league.  It's relatively easy for opponents' offenses to see over them and to shoot over them.

From a defensive toughness standpoint, Smart could potentially become a better partner than Bradley for with Rondo or Pressey.  But someone has to shoot the ball reliably; and, when I last saw him during summer league, Smart didn't look like a reliable shooter, which Avery has become with his greatly improved outside prowess.

I think we could see Smart on the floor with Wallace (good health providing…) and either Rondo or Bradley when it's shutdown time.  My preference would be Rondo because overall I'm less sold on Bradley at the defensive end with each passing game.  I think he's an average to decent overall role player and future trade package throw-in.

And Turner, in my current opinion (subject to change), could be instrumental in establishing the team's single most complementary position.  I believe that, under ideal conditions (which never occur), Evan and Jeff could come closest to forming a perpetual motion team of small forwards that never takes its foot off the pedal.  I also believe they would complement one another as Mr. Outside and Mr. Inside so that opponents would continually have to adapt their defenses to whichever of them is on the floor.  Anything to get the opponent back on his heels while you're also wearing him out.

I see this as a real possibility.  Turner could be our find of the offseason if things work out between his ears.

Ostensibly, the power forward position should be the most complementary.  After all, you've got another Inside-Outside combination of Sully (if he lays off all the threes) and Kelly.  And Bass could accent the complementarity by being "Mr. In-between."

Someone has to swim against the tide; power forward is my biggest concern this year, that is providing a Green/Turner combo gives us the scoring punch we lack.  I see us as having three power forwards that, in reality, all look sensational as the second option on someone's depth chart.

So, as my initial contribution to this thread, I've tried to highlight the ramifications of some of the lineup/rotation challenges that could confront Brad as he tries to make Orange Julius from oranges.  (This team is not a lemon.)

Oranges it is.


Sam


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Post by NYCelt Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:36 am

kdp59 wrote:great piece.

since I am more of a "why talk details when the obvious will do" kinda guy.......

my short and un-sweet reality for the coming season.

1) someone will be traded.

2) The Celtics will be a lottery team.

3) The Rondo trade talk continues up to the trade deadline.

boy, I really went out on a limb there!

kdp,

Being a bottom line guy myself, I get you here!

Regards
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Post by sinus007 Thu Sep 25, 2014 10:42 am

Sam,
Wow. I hesitate to call it a post; it's much more of an article. I'm glad I can read what many of the regulars here write about Celtics and basketball in general instead of vast majority of writers-experts on ESPN, Yahoo, BR, etc.

As for the article, I'm confused: you're referring to "5" when talking about RR and Smart?
Also, I'd put a big, fat * or if that stipulates current/most probable roster. I'm not sure that Danny is all done before the beginning of the camp and the season. Kind of strange that ET hasn't been officially signed, yet.

Now, the reality, as I see it. Back court will be RR and AB. One of the complimentary sides is that AB showed a solid trend of a jump shooter. I have no clue what's going to happen with Smart - he's yet to play.
Completely agree about JG-ET tandem. Kind of a double punch. If Brad implements it and they buy into it - should be fun to watch.
As for the bigs, my main concern is p-n-r, on both ends of the floor. Bass is OK. Zeller is more or less. But KO and Sully is work in progress.
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Post by rickdavisakaspike Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:38 pm


Great post, Sam.

IMHO, this year's team is much better than the so-called experts are giving it credit for. There's a whole lot of talent here and some of these guys, particularly Sully, Bradley, Zeller and Kelly, are poised for break-out seasons. It's probably going to be a roller coaster ride, because they don't have an identity yet, but once they realize they can virtually paralyze opponents with their defense, they'll settle down and simply expect to be good.

As I say, there's loads of talent, raw talent, and once they all realize what each other can do, understand their own strengths and weaknesses and how they can help each other out, they're going to be fun to watch. There's speed and youth and competitiveness and many guys who'll be playing with a chip on their shoulder.

Then, there's the coach. He's like the secret weapon on this team. Nobody's talking much about what he brings to the table, but it's going to show itself game in and game out. He'll provide the identity based on what he can convince them to do. Cry havoc on defense and run, run, run.


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Post by Sam Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:42 pm

Sinus,

I don't wonder that you were confused.  Brain fart on my part.  Sorry about that.  Maybe not-so-obviously, I meant "1" and "2" rather than "5" and "4."  I actually got messed up by looking for synonyms due to my stubborn refusal to refer to the floor general position as "point guard."  I happen to think that "floor general" better emphasizes a crucial part of the position, and I just hate to keep using the same term over and over in my posts.

Anyway, the numbers have been corrected, and I greatly appreciate your bringing the gaffe to my attention.

Sam
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Post by kdp59 Thu Sep 25, 2014 2:26 pm

rickdavisakaspike wrote:
Great post, Sam.

IMHO, this year's team is much better than the so-called experts are giving it credit for.  There's a whole lot of talent here and some of these guys, particularly Sully, Bradley, Zeller and Kelly, are poised for break-out seasons.  It's probably going to be a roller coaster ride, because they don't have an identity yet, but once they realize they can virtually paralyze opponents with their defense, they'll settle down and simply expect to be good.

As I say, there's loads of talent, raw talent, and once they all realize what each other can do, understand their own strengths and weaknesses and how they can help each other out, they're going to be fun to watch.  There's speed and youth and competitiveness and many guys who'll be playing with a chip on their shoulder.

Then, there's the coach.  He's like the secret weapon on this team.  Nobody's talking much about what he brings to the table, but it's going to show itself game in and game out.  He'll provide the identity based on what he can convince them to do.  Cry havoc on defense and run, run, run.



hmmm...so what do you see as the teams probable won/loss record this coming year?

I see 30-35 wins myself.
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Post by NYCelt Thu Sep 25, 2014 4:32 pm

sam wrote:Sinus,

I don't wonder that you were confused.  Brain fart on my part.  Sorry about that.  Maybe not-so-obviously, I meant "1" and "2" rather than "5" and "4."  I actually got messed up by looking for synonyms due to my stubborn refusal to refer to the floor general position as "point guard."  I happen to think that "floor general" better emphasizes a crucial part of the position, and I just hate to keep using the same term over and over in my posts.

Anyway, the numbers have been corrected, and I greatly appreciate your bringing the gaffe to my attention.

Sam

I think most of us caught the meaning.

I know when I've been in a hurry before I've labeled a few things much farther off than that. Seems to me the majority of us have been posting back-and-forth for so long we see the intent and not the typo.

Or, as I tell my wife, 'just hear what I mean and not what I say.'

(She just figures I'm not firing on all cylinders upstairs anyway...)
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Post by k_j_88 Thu Sep 25, 2014 5:00 pm

I think the C's will increase their win total by 12 games this year.

Sidenote, shall we call the Zeller-Sullinger-Olynyk combination "Zullynyk?


KJ


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Post by Outside Thu Sep 25, 2014 5:04 pm

Sam,

Very nice post. I unfortunately have too much going on right now to contribute a decent response, but I at least wanted you to know that I appreciated what you obviously spent a considerable amount of effort writing.
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