The Pros And Cons Of Pairing Kelly Olynyk And Jared Sullinger

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Pros and Cons of Boston Celtics Pairing Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger
By Stephen Babb , Featured Columnist Oct 16, 2014


Pros and Cons of Boston Celtics Pairing Kelly Olynyk and Jared SullingerMichael Dwyer/Associated Press



The time has come for a couple of the Boston Celtics' prized young prospects to adopt more veteran responsibilities—namely as front-line fixtures in the starting lineup.

Jared Sullinger only started 44 games a season ago, and Kelly Olynyk started just nine.

That's about to change.

According to The Boston Globe's Gary Washburn, "While Olynyk, a second-year player from Gonzaga, is a classic 'stretch 4' with perimeter skills, [head coach Brad ]Stevens said he is Boston's best option at center."

In his recent column, Washburn adds that, "Sullinger is expected to start at power forward with Jeff Green at small forward and Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo in the backcourt."

"I think it would be tough to unseat [Olynyk] right now," Stevens recently told The Boston Globe. "With that being said, we still have two weeks but that's where I am right now. The good news about that and the part that's kind of up in the air is Kelly can play the 4 and the 5, so who knows what's going to happen?"

Nine-year veteran Brandon Bass started 73 games last season, and departed big man Kris Humphries started another 30. Now seems like an obvious time to see what the next generation of bigs can do in Boston—particularly what they can do together.

With Stevens seriously entertaining the option, it's worth considering the costs and benefits of starting Sullinger and Olynyk on a full-time basis.



The Good






Jared Wickerham/Getty Images


Sullinger and Olynyk represent the future. The sooner Stevens puts them in positions to be successful, the sooner they'll usher in the next phase of general manager Danny Ainge's rebuilding process.

That phase probably doesn't include an imminent postseason appearance, but patience remains in order after a 25-win season.

In the short term, the two bigs will space the floor with their shooting abilities, providing Rondo with targets when he's in facilitation mode—which is most of the time.

With Olynyk making 35.1 percent of his three-point attempts last season (and Sullinger achieving a lesser mark at 26.9 percent), the big idea is to keep the floor spread with spot-up options.

"The other factor in this is our guards are solid, capable shooters but it's not like that's their reputation," Stevens recently explained to reporters, per Washburn. "It's not like a guy that runs off screens and shoots 45 percent from 3. So having more guys that space the floor in the frontcourt is going to be important. As a result, we'll be at times smaller."

This offense needs some life.

The Celtics only scored 99.7 points per 100 possessions last season, giving them an offensive efficiency that ranked 27th league-wide, according to Hollinger Stats. The club's 51.7 true shooting percentage ranked 28th.

Those struggles are explained in part by the fact Rondo only played in 30 games after recovering from an ACL injury.

But Boston's especially stagnant offense suggests more systemic problems. Maybe a new starting five will help.

"Me and Sully [Jared Sullinger] and even BB [Brandon Bass] are sometimes outside, spotting up and drawing defenses out to open the lane for guards penetrating the ball," Olynyk told the Boston Herald's Steve Bulpett.

Olynyk should be especially effective in that role given his perimeter success as a rookie.

"With his size, [Olynyk] has the ability to stretch defenses out, being able to shoot all the way to the three," teammate Joel Anthony told reporters this month, via thestar.com's Josh Rubin. "But he can also handle the ball very well. He's very shifty and crafty."

And while Sullinger wasn't especially efficient in his sophomore campaign, he did attempt 2.8 three-pointers per game. The hope remains that he blossoms into a poor man's Kevin Love.

Both Sullinger and Olynyk rebound the ball well. Sullinger tallied 8.1 boards in 27.6 minutes per game last season, while Olynyk collected 5.2 in 20 minutes per game. They're well-suited to creating the kind of inside-out presence Stevens imagines.

Just don't expect them to become saviors in the process.



The Bad





Brian Babineau/Getty Images



The Celtics aren't going to scare anyone defensively with this lineup.

Washburn noted that it was Sullinger who guarded Toronto Raptors big man Jonas Valanciunas in one preseason game. One way or another, Boston will find itself playing defense that's either undersized (Sullinger) or overmatched physically (Olynyk).

For now, the team's trying to put a positive spin on it, accentuating those offensive possibilities.

"He's not necessarily a traditional center from a skill-set standpoint," Stevens admitted to media this month, per Rubin. "He's not going to weigh more than most centers. But he is a matchup problem for most bigs, because he can play on the block but he's really good facing the basket."

The Celtics ranked 20th in defensive efficiency last season, giving up 105.2 points per 100 possessions, according to Hollinger Stats. Neither Sullinger nor Olynyk will provide the kind of rim protection needed to turn that around.

And with Tyler Zeller, Joel Anthony and Vitor Faverani the only other bigs (besides Bass) likely to see minutes, this is a problem that goes way beyond Sullinger and Olynyk.

The other drawback to starting these two is that it means one less scoring threat coming off the bench.

The Celtics' bench averaged 30.1 points per game last season, the 17th-best mark in the league. That's not terrible, but remember Sullinger, Olynyk and Humphries came off the bench for quite a few games last season. They provided the second unit with options and stability it may no longer have under the proposed arrangement.

Depth and defense—the kind of things separating the Celtics from the playoff heights to which they aspire.

The kind of problems Sullinger and Olynyk won't solve.



The Ugly Truth






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No lineup adjustment or strategic innovation will change Boston's immediate fate. This young roster is a long way from contending and perhaps another year or two away from even thinking about the playoffs.

There will be bumps along the way for Sullinger and Olynyk—and an obvious learning curve for rookies Marcus Smart and James Young. Stevens and his staff are choosing between the lesser of evils, preferably deploying a lineup that builds for the future while stopping the bleeding in the interim.

From that perspective, the Celtics don't have much choice.

Zeller was a nice young pickup this summer, but Sullinger and Olynyk are the closest things to post players with star potential. Even if they continue to look like role players in the near-term, their development is important to the organization's broader plans.

Why wait to get the ball rolling?




bob




.

History speaks for itself. This combination has more cons than pros.


KJ

Zeller appears to be moving in a positive direction, even on defense.  But he's not an intimidator.  However, he's more of an intimidator than either Sully or Kelly.  At some point (I hope I'm still alive), the Celtics will get an intimidator.  The issue at that point will be who fits better with the intimidator—Sully or Kelly.  If the intimidator is a low post player as well as a defensive force, Kelly would more likely get the nod.  In which case, Sully would more than likely have been used in a move to get the intimidator.  It's difficult to imagine an intimidator who's a high post player; but, it's possible that Sully would work best with him.

If they can somehow get the intimidator without giving up with Sully or Kelly, it's not impossible to envision a front court rotation of Mr. X at center and both Sully and Kelly splitting their time between power forward and some backup center.  Sully might get more minutes than Kelly when they're playing a tough rebounding team.  When they want to emphasize the up-tempo game, Kelly would get more minutes than Sully.  It remains to be seen whether Zeller would be a valuable backup for Mr. Intimidator, resulting in a big man rotation of Mr. X, Zelly, Kelly and Sully.

Sully and Kelly share one skill that should not be undervalued—passing skill.  That could be invaluable if Brad succeeds long term in utilizing a motion offense.  I happen to think Kelly has the edge over Sully in terms of passing, as well as in shooting the three (which I feel compelled to mention so I won't be accused of overlooking although my heart's just no in any offense with has big men shooting threes).

Sam

k_j_88 wrote:History speaks for itself. This combination has more cons than pros.


KJ

KJ,

"History" with these two only go back one year, to Kelly's rookie year and Sully's sophomore year (and an abbreviated rookie year). Kelly's the "old man" of the two at 23. A little patience might be warranted here.

Bird wasn't a great individual defender but he was a very good team defender. Yeah, I know, he's Larry Legend, but Kelly and Sully both have pretty good BBIQs too. Team defense, however, takes time to learn.



bob




.

one note the writer overlooked , when he said our bench scoring will be affected.

we would/will have Bass coming off the bench AND the team added Offensive players Turner and Thornton in the off-season.

Kelly O might need to turn it up a little, if Zeller keeps playing like he has the past couple of games. I still wonder if Stevens comments about center being Kelly's job to lose, wasn't to kick Zeller in the butt a bit.

you have to play your best players, which is why I kept saying that Kelly and Sully need the minutes. its up to the coaches to create the schemes to make that work best it can.

I like Kelly and Sully, but wouldn't be surprised if Sam's wish comes true and we land an intimidator in the next year. Zeller's improving; I see him as our starter this year and possible backup next year. When Kelly and Sully are on the floor together, good teams are going to feast in the paint because we don't have the length or foot speed to stop them. I think we can do well with one or the other in the lineup as long as there is an effective shot blocker behind them. Of course, I hope I am being pessimistic. Hawk

Ainge has passed on a bunch of capable centers, hes allergic to big intimidators.

With Sully, KO is redundant, Rudy Gorbert would have looked great in that paint next to Sully, we'd be set for 13 years.

BobH,


The problem is that neither one of them are really athletic. Kelly lacks the necessary length, and Sullinger is 100% below the rim.

Going against poor to mediocre teams masks this deficiency. But if the Celtics play against better teams, those teams will scheme against the interior weakness that is Kelly and Sullinger and exploit them like there's no tomorrow. I just don't see it as a winning prospect at any point.



KJ

Sully can make up for his non athleticism the same way Paul Silas, Charles Oakley and Karl Malone did, by moving bodies and having a knack for the ball and he has potential to be much better than 2 out of those 3....but he needs a physical rim protector next to him for the team to really be elite.

Paul Silas was a great rebounder and a strong defender. The Celts became a legit contender when they added him.

Sully and KO are horrible defenders. On offense they are a good combination.

Bottom line. We will never contend until we get a good center.

Still a bit mystified that DA did not go after Asik given what NO had to do to make the trade. Most likely DA and the Houston GM do not care to makes deals with each other.

Dboss

We really don't know how hard DA has tried to land a center, speculate till the cows come home all we want. Sure he passed over some, so did a lot of other GM's too.

Second round picks are almost worthless as how many of those turn out to be much of anything, just landing a good role player in the second round is tough.

We have assets we did not have a couple years ago. Believe there will be some decent FA next summer or even perhaps someone becomes available at the trade deadline but we are heading into the season with what we have............which is a little more than we had last year. And if we catch some breaks on those 1st round picks???

beat

Beat

Nevertheless it is strange when you consider that just about every NBA that we can name has a starting center that is better then our starting center.

I have no doubts that DA's stated desire to add a rim protector will happen eventually but this is becoming a long running drama.

There have been too few success stories involving players playing out of position. I'm concerned that KO's offense could suffer because he will playing center at the defensive end.

I think it takes more energy to play defense than it does offense.

dboss

dboss

Have to disagree, I don't consider "nearly" every team to have a better center than us, and I'm not going to take the time to look it up (so I could be somewhat wrong) sure appears the center position is just not dominated by true "bigs" anymore and hasn't been for a while. KO is still young, only in his second year, and certainly improved during the course of last season even with some injury setbacks. If he can stay healthy I think he'll be competitive against most of the teams we go up against and with Zeller we should be OK. I do hope we can improve over time but that remains to be seen, it's not like centers are for sale at Kmart.

beat

beat

Nearly as used in the context of my feelings is abstract. Perhaps not the right choice of word.

My point is that the Celtics are one the weakest teams at the center position in the NBA.

I can only think of maybe 3 teams where I would give the edge to the Celtics -(Lakers, Hawks and Heat. ) There is a small group of teams were we are fairly equal ( Philly but only until Embiid starts to pay and contribute, Milwaukee Bucks and the Jazz. But I see no real advantage there. Then there is the rest of the NBA teams all with better options at the center position.

I think that puts Boston in the lower end of the sucky teams without good fives.

So the Celtics are going to experiment with KO playing center on defense and stretch 4 on offense. Maybe Zeller will surprise us but the biggest surprise thus far is how bad he is.

dboss

beat other than Miami, which had the best player in the league, name a championship team or even a team that gets to Conference Finals that is really weak at the center position? Since Russell and Chamberlain the team with the best big has always won in the Finals, despite lack of centers teams that contend always have a legit center or superstar 4 with an intimidator at the 5. Look at Memphis, they don't have a superstar wing or point, if that team was in the East, they would contend just off Gasol and Randolph.....why can't Danny get a fockin big?

guess they're not giving them away....

maybe Danny was so mortified by how Melo pick turned out, hes lost his ability to pull the trigger on another 5?

cowens/oldschool wrote:maybe Danny was so mortified by how Melo pick turned out, hes lost his ability to pull the trigger on another 5?

C's need better scouting, more like how SAS does it.



KJ

My guess is that Danny turned himself inside out in his attempts to land a primo center this past summer.  My other guess is that most teams with which he was in contact tried to get Rondo.  What good would it do to trade one primo player for another primo player, especially when both players occupy the two most important positions?

Would you rather have Tim Duncan or Tony Parker?

Would you rather have KG or Stephon Marbury?

we don't know who Rondo might have been offered for? and Danny obviously thought Gorbert might be the next Thabeet. It is still a bigmans game, even though truly great centers may be lacking compared to other eras, that just makes their value even more essential when you land that piece....even imperfect ones like Gasol or Hibbert can be a huge piece on an imperfect team and that team can contend.

One problem with having a stash of future draft picks as your primary trade asset is that other general managers know that (1) the draft is a crap shoot under the best of circumstances and (2) if they trade a player who can help the Celtics win, it's likely to devalue the very pick they got in the trade.

There are so many factors and perspective involved in NBA trade activity that almost any comment about prospective trades is guaranteed to overlook a host of considerations.  And the same it true of free agent signings.

Sam