If the Celtics have to choose between Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk, who should they keep?

http://www.celticsblog.com/2015/5/27/8665591/if-the-celtics-have-to-choose-between-jared-sullinger-and-kelly





If the Celtics have to choose between Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk, who should they keep?
By Jeff Clark  @celticsblog on May 27, 2015, 6:23a 76






Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
Choose wisely.


The Celtics could potentially have a power forward dilemma at some point this offseason.  They are looking to upgrade the talent on the roster and they will not be constrained by position.  If the best free agent, trade, or draft prospect they can get is yet another power forward, that's who they'll get.  Even if they don't go out and add a power forward, they still have the luxury of re-signing Brandon Bass.

All of which points to having too many power forwards.

Sure, you can play them together in a quasi-positionless lineup where someone matches up with the other team's 5.  There aren't a lot of centers out there that can make the team really pay for that kind of mismatch anyway.  Stevens managed the rotations pretty well this year despite the glut at the position.  Still, it isn't ideal.

At some point the team might have to focus on developing either Kelly Olynyk or Jared Sullinger and providing them with a clear backup (either a young player or veteran role player like Bass).  That would also allow them to move one or the other of them to fill needs elsewhere on the roster.

Which begs the question in the title of this post: Who would you rather keep?

Jared Sullinger is seemingly farther along in his development at this point. He's got a crafty back-to-the-basket game, rebounding chops, and is developing a 3 point shot to stretch the floor (or at least keep defenses honest).  The problem is that he's struggled with conditioning and has to prove that he can stay in shape (and on the court) enough to help on switches late in the game.

Kelly Olynyk is a modern, face-up, stretch 4 with a lot of talents.  At his best he's hitting shots from deep, driving into the lane for easy buckets, and displaying deft passing instincts.  At his worst he's a deer in headlights afraid to shoot the ball and ineffective on either end of the floor.  He has less experience than Sullinger, so this year should tell us a lot.

So who would you pick?  If you could trade one of them to upgrade the roster (either by trading up or by adding a piece elsewhere), who would you want to keep?  Obviously the answer will always be "it depends on a lot of things."  But take the variables (like "who would another team rather have?" or "who brings back the most in return?") out of the equation.  If a team is willing to deal with you and take either one in return, who do you want here next year?

I'm tempted to say Sullinger just because he's proven that he can be one of the best players on the court and I'm a sucker for rebounders.  On the other hand, he hasn't proven that he can master his own body.  Also, the following blurb from Grantland's Zach Lowe gives me pause.

We Interrupt This Eulogy for the NBA Post-Up Game to Bring You Its Rebirth "

"If you’re a stretch 4 today, you’d better have a lightning-quick release," says Daryl Morey, the Rockets GM. Guys like Ryan Anderson, Ersan Ilyasova, and Channing Frye are more multidimensional, but they aren’t as lethal as they were two or three years ago, and they can only thrive in specific environments. If they had better post games, they could beat up smaller defenders and force opponents into uncomfortable readjustments. But they can’t — at least not consistently. A few executives have dumped the term "stretch 4" altogether and replaced it with "playmaking 4" — a term I’m officially stealing right now. Shooting is nice, but it’s not enough anymore as defenses get smarter, faster, and more flexible working within the loosened rules. Spot-up guys have to be able to catch the ball, pump-fake a defender rushing out at them, drive into the lane, and make some sort of play. If they can’t manage that, a possession dies with them.

Olynyk seems to fit the description of a guy that can get past his defender and make a play in the lane.  I can see why Danny Ainge and Brad Stevens both had (and have) high hopes for this kid.  Enough that they moved up in the draft to get him.  He fits the mold of modern NBA big man except that he doesn't play great defense, and that might ultimately doom him.

So I'll throw this open to the comments and this poll.  Who ya got?



bob
MY NOTE:  I'm not sure I agree with the premise, our logjam at 4 was MUCH worse 2 years ago and they both played, but it is an interesting exercise to establish priorities and preferences of style of play.

I have read, more than once, that Kelly has the best +/- differential on the team.  He is highly versatile, albeit not a force down low in the low blocks.  He can, however, take his man off the dribble much better than Sully and he has very good passing skills if the defense reacts and collapses.  He gets blocked at the rim, but so does Sully when he forgets he's not a 6'9" player in college anymore.

Sully's inside game is better and he bodies up against 5s better than Kelly, but he's not a better shot blocker.  He averaged 1.0 blocks/36 last year and so did Kelly, 1.0, and Sully played more against 4s last year than he did earlier in his career.  So he was playing against players who were more his size.

Kelly runs the floor well, Sully does not.  Some of this is because he's just heavier and some of it is because Sully has a conditioning problem which may or may not be dealt with satisfactorily.  Kelly is a full court player, Sully is more half court.

Sully, 44%fg% and 28% from 3.  Kelly, 47.5%fg% and 35% from 3.

Where Sully really stands out is on the boards.  Sully, 10.1reb/36.  Kelly, 7.7/36.

Kelly is tentative, even on his shot which is his calling card.  Sully has a natural aggressiveness to his style of play.

Then, there's the question of the rest of the roster.  Are they replaceable?  Sully could be replaced by Bass.  Who would replace Kelly?

Choose wisely, indeed.




.

This is a great question, and was actually our main topic at last Friday's local Celtics breakfast meeting.

I think that we probably had most every side of this comparison discussed over and over, and finally agreed that the answer can really only be answered after knowing which other players will make up the rest of the center/power forward grouping.  We thought that a big rebounding center on the roster makes Olynyk more valuable while a smaller center makes Sullenger look more enticing, etc.

Sullenger and Olynyk bring so many different skills to the table that they are very difficult to compare.  They also have some 'end-result' similarities: neither is very good on defense and also that neither should spend very much time playing center against a good team or a team with a good, offensive minded center.

Riding the fence somewhat, I could see both guys sharing the power forward position next year or even see both guys being traded this summer.
If both or either one are traded, I would very much like to see Brandon Bass re-signed.

As usual in these polls, I feel the answer categories aren't sufficiently exhaustive.  I believe there should be an "either" category because the answer to the question depends on the circumstances.  And, at this point of time, if anyone thinks (s)he can predict what the circumstances will be if and when Danny might choose to include either Sully or Kelly in a trade, that's just not factual.  So I voted "neither" not because it's the way I feel but because it was the most neutral option.

I could also see a "both" option as potentially appropriate in a given situation.  If they were to sign (and I know it's a long shot) Lemarcus Aldrich, I'd be happy to have an Aldrich/Bass tandem at PF while using both Sully AND Kelly as trading chips (though not necessarily in the same deal).

I think of Sully and Kelly as the embodiments of Jack Sprat and his wife.  Both have vulnerabilities, and the presence of both does NOT compensate for the vulnerabilities of each.  In most cases, well-rounded, versatile players represent an ideal situation. Quantity doesn't trump quality.

Sam

Agree with Sam. They're both young players with their own set of strengths and weaknesses. Getting rid of one, the other, or both totally depends on who is available to replace them as a free agent, or what you could get for one of them in a trade.

In an ideal world, with a good return on the one traded, I'd probably keep Sully as I think he has a higher ceiling.

-V

I voted neither and my assumption was the question relates to which one to keep and the one kept would be a starter. I doubt either will ever be good enough to start on a team that is a contender to win it all. Both could be good enough to be a bench/role player on such a team.

I'm with BobC33.  

Individually they are incomplete and will never be whole unless each makes a dramatic transformation.

KO is a plodder and at times not quite athletic, but has a nice shot from 3 point land and is 7'. Not aggressive enough on the boards.

Sully has great hands down low but plays below the rim.  Is tough for his size down low but over matched with players taller.  Cannot run the floor with speed for a big.

6 of 1 ...........half a dozen of the other....you still wind up with an incomplete player.

If you could combine the 2 into 1 player....it then makes sense.

112288

I'll take KO any day. All the grief he gets about his rebounding and interior defense would be greatly alleviated if we had either a PF or C who could do those things.

The other biggest criticism Kelly receives is not dominating offensively like we all know he can.

Why not just get the pitchforks and noose and be done with it. A lot of fans have hated KO with a seething passion since he was drafted. Even when they finally admit that he has the skills and size and iq to dominate as a scorer, they claim his inability to do so yet is reason enough to ship him out on the first train, or hang him from the nearest tree.

Oh, and he's not selfish enough. Simply unacceptable in a second year player.

Sure, he's 7 feet tall with point guard skills, and shoots like shooting guard, but he's somehow low potential because he hasn't dominated yet and it's already been two years!

Give me the fat short unathletic wife beater with the bad attitude and entitlement problem. He's got potential out the wazoo, if he can just avoid not gaining 20 lbs in the middle of the season.

On a more serious, more diplomatic note, I think KO may already be a 6th man of the year candidate center, even if he never ends up winning the award.

I think he can be a good starting PF or C if he's paired with a defense and rebounding stud at the other frontcourt position, but we all know that 6th man of the year types can have a bigger impact than a lot of starters.

Sully can be a solid starting PF and a solid backup center, but I don't think he has near the potential that KO does once KO stops overthinking and stops being selfless to a fault. You can't even really blame him for liking to pass so much and get other guys involved. Our offense is ridiculously efficient whenever KO is in the game, and that's without him even shooting much. He's a great passer for a 7 footer, and takes pride in it. And after Danny called KO a complimentary player on draft night, it's no wonder that KO focused on best fulfilling that expected role.

It won't be long before KO develops more of a scoring mentality, though he'll always be a team first player.

I fully expect a(nother) 6th man of the year caliber season from KO, unless the Celtics acquire a defensive big man and KO somehow earns the starting spot next to him. Given that KO has thrived in his role off the bench, like IT4, Stevens may be slow to give KO the starting nod over Zeller or Sully, and that's okay.

I think we'll see a lot more performances like this from KO next season. All he needed was a Shav to the face. It's all about mentality:

rabone,

You make some fair points in wanting KO. I think he made some improvements this year, however he needs to continue to improve to another level this year to be a keeper.

If we have a trade that brought a more complete player....do it.

112288

Kelly Olynyk stats by minutes played:
G GS MP FG FGA 3P 3PA FT FTA ORB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS FG% 3P% FT% TS% USG% ORtg DRtg +/- MP PTS TRB AST

Minutes 40+ 1 0 41 6 12 1 3 6 6 7 11 3 4 1 1 6 19 .500 .333 1.000 .649 16.5 147 109 +19.5 41.4 19.0 11.0 3.0

30-39 7 4 225 50 78 13 27 16 22 16 53 11 8 8 14 24 129 .641 .481 .727 .736 19.9 129 106 +11.6 32.1 18.4 7.6 1.6

20-29 31 6 758 142 296 36 98 52 79 39 154 63 26 24 52 104 372 .480 .367 .658 .562 22.4 103 105 +3.5 24.4 12.0 5.0 2.0

10-19 24 3 392 53 139 11 47 19 29 29 84 31 26 6 31 77 136 .381 .234 .655 .448 20.5 87 99 +2.9 16.3 5.7 3.5 1.3

0-9 1 0 7 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 .000 .000 19.9 38 106 +2.7 7.2 0.0 1.0 1.0