My current roster assessment.

Slow in my office today, so I had some time. please ignore any typo's or spelling.

tell me where you disagree, which players have I over estimated/under estimated here.



My rating grades as follows:
Starter- starter main bench player on an NBA playoff caliber team (2000 or more minutes).
Solid back up- 1500-1900 minutes on an NBA playoff team.
Backup- 1000-1400 minutes on an NBA playoff team.
Marginal player- 400-900 minutes on an NBA playoff team,
D- Leaguer- less than 400 minutes on a playoff team.



C-T. Zeller- 7-0, 24YO, under contract next year at $2.6M.
Zeller is a solid back up NBA center. He doesn’t have the strength to ever be any elite NBA big man, but brings a high BB IQ and an ability to run the floor well. I rate him as a SOLID BACK UP.

C/PF- K. Olynyk- 7-0, 23YO, on second year of four year rookie deal (team option for last year).
Olynyk is potentially a solid NBA starter. He may always be somewhat of a liability on the defensive end and his game is more suited to a high post PF type player. High BB IQ and good outside shot, along with good passing skills are his best qualities. He most likely will have a long career as a NBA starter. I rate him now as a SOLID BACK UP.

C/PF- B. Wright- 6-10, 27YO, an UFA next year.
Wright has developed into a solid back up in the NBA now. He has most likely reached his peak and has little upside from his play today. Good low post scorer and good shot blocker, his skinny frame limits his overall ability as a rebounder and as an enforcer inside. I rate him as a BACK UP.

PF- J. Sullinger- 6-9, 22YO, under contract next year at $2.2M
Sullinger is a solid NBA starter now. His upside is somewhat limited by his being a below the rim type big man. Perhaps one of the reasons coach Stevens has been trying to develop his outside shot. He may ever be more than a 14pt, 8 reb. Per game guy in the NBA, but may do it for years. I rate him as a STARTER.

PF- B. Bass- 6-8,29YO, an UFA next year.
Bass has worked himself into a very good NBA player. He works hard on defense and has a good mid range shot. He is not a strong rebounder, but he seems to be a good guy to have on your team. Probably not a part of the future here, due to his age only. I rate him as a SOLID BACK UP.

PF/SF- J. Green- 6-9, 28 YO, has a player option next year at $9.4M
If Green continues to play at the more consistent level he has the first third of this year, he will make himself a nice bag of cash. Good active guy on both ends of the floor has become a solid 3 point shooter. Will never be the go-to guy on any playoff team, but maybe a solid second guy now. Good chance Ainge trades him before he opts out and gets a bigger deal, IMO.I rate him a STARTER.

PF/SF- J. Crowder- 6-6,24YO , RFA next year.
Crowder seems to be hard worker, moderate skill type guy. He has improved his 3 point shot since his rookie year to where he is a threat form there at times. Will always have to hustle and play hard to keep a roster spot in the NBA. I rate him as a BACK UP.

SF- G. Wallace- 6-7,32YO, under contract at $10.1M next season.
Only on the team now (and maybe the NBA) because of that guaranteed contract. Still hustles and works hard and we don’t hear any of the complaining like last season (which tells me he sees the writing on the wall for his NBA career). I rate him a MARGINAL PLAYER today.

SF/G- E. Turner- 6-7, 26YO under contract next year for $3.4M.
Turner is a solid mid range shooter with moderate ball handling skills. Defense is spotty at times. Not a dominate type player and may always be graded lower than he should because he was a number 2 overall draft pick. On a VERY LOW contract next year. I rate him as a SOLID BACK UP.

SF/SG- J. Young- 6-6,19YO on the first year of his rookie deal.
Looks like he has the shot we saw in college, range out to the NBA 3 line. Long arms give him a chance to be at least an adequate defensive player. Kills in the D-league as he should, has to be able to stay healthy to improve. In a few years he could be anywhere form Starter to Marginal player. But right now I arte him as MARGINAL PLAYER.

SG- A. Bradley- 6-2,24YO under contract next year at $7.7M
Started his NBA career as a dogged defender, with a marginal shot. Has worked on his shot and can still play some impressive defense, though he is not as consistent on the D end playing more minutes. Can look great on offense at times and then disappear for long stretches in games. Not a great ball handler, but adequate for a SG. I rate him STARTER.

SG_ M. Thornton- 6-4,27YO , UFA next year.
A once volume scorer, who may be on the decline. A better defender than his detractors say, but no stopper by any means. Most likely won’t be here next year (if he’s not moved this year).I rate him as BACK UP now.

SG/PG- M. Smart- 6-3,20YO First year of Rookie deal.
Hard worker and already has the look of a leader. Not a great shooter and may never be. High BB IQ it appears. Might end being a combo guard more than a 1 or 2. Defense is already at a high level, even as a rookie. Has the look of a player who plays on good playoff teams, but never is considered a star. Should be an NBA starter for a long time. Right now I rate him SOLID BACK UP.

PG- J. Nelson- 6-0,32YO, has a player option for next season at $2.8M
Nelson was once an adequate starting NBA point guard. Has good ball skills and veteran point guard ability. OK outside and 3 point shooter. On the downside of his NBA career now however and best suited as a vet back up to a younger point guard. I rate him BACK UP.

PG- P. Pressey- 5-11, 23YO Under contract for $0.95M next year.
More like 5-8 and that will forever limit his upside in the NBA. Good ball handler and hard worker on defense, though his size is a major liability. Seems to be improving his shot, but really had nowhere to go but up after his rookie year. Might stick around next year as a low paid player for the end of the bench. I Rate him MARGINAL PLAYER.


So I have the following players rated as NBA starters now:
Sulinger
Green
Bradley

I have the following players rated as Solid back ups now:
Zeller
Olynyk- upside to NBA starter
Bass
Turner
Smart- upside to NBA starter

I have the following players rated as Back ups now:
Wright
Crowder
Thornton
Nelson

I have the following players rated as marginal NBA players:
Wallace
Young- upside to solid back up
Pressey

Kdp,

I agree with much of your assessment.  It's hard with young players to know what they are really capable of.  For example, you have James Young as a 'marginal player'.  He is a rookie who has barely been able to get on the court because injuries have held him back.  You have Bradley listed as a starter but do you remember his rookie year?   He missed training camp too, from an ankle sprain, and his game never really recovered that year from the lost time and confidence.   The next year his natural defensive talents took over and his confidence rose.  Now, his offense is good where it stunk for his first two years.  I realize your assessment is just a snapshot in time but a lot of our future core players Danny and Brad are developing are moving targets.

If Pressey becomes a good shooter, not a great one but just good, he'll be valuable because his strength is something you cannot teach.  He's a natural point guard.  Hours and hours of practice shooting can fix that problem, Rondo isn't a BAD shooter anymore but it has taken years to fix that, but you can't teach high-quality, high-speed decision-making like a point guard must do.  You either have it or you don't and Pressey has it.

So does Kelly.  One thing that may have set his development back, ironically, might have been playing with Rondo.  The offense with Rondo was very Rondo-centric and Kelly, understandably,  deferred to that.  Now that Rondo is gone I'll bet we see the offense go through Kelly more.  He was nominated for Player of the week because he averaged just shy of 20ppg on very efficient scoring.  When he was out on the perimeter passing it around so it could get back into Rondo's hands he was ineffectual.  We'll see what happens now.

So, you have 3 legit starters and 2 young'uns that could become starters, one of which is a rookie still learning the NBA and the other is a sophomore.  That's a legit starting 5 in a year or two.  We need a legit starting center who is a defensive force and that will significantly upgrade that unit.

And this isn't even Year 1 1/2 of the rebuild yet.  The second All-Star game of the rebuild is still ahead of us.


bob



.

Not a bad attempt to define the current state of things, but I think it is way too soon to judge Young and Smart or even KO and Pressey for that matter.

thanks for the reply's.

I would note that I am attempting to rate players right now and that I did point out that I feel that Kelly, Smart and Young all have upside.

KDP,

I think Zeller is potential starter material. He has good fundamentals and can evolve into a better defender. If Perkins can be a starter, so can this guy.



KJ

KDP, I like the way this looks at things. I think depending on where a team is in the building process looking at the first 8-10 players on a roster and seeing them all fit in the first two categories is vital. I might add a top grade of an all star caliber starter.... My thinking is you need at least a couple of all stars to go deep in the playoffs. Nice work!

kdp,

Looks good.  I'd agree with the idea that it's too soon to really rate Smart or Young, although I think Smart has shown promise to rank as a starter soon.  Young needs some time to heal and develop, we take these guys so soon.

I make it…

Players rated as NBA starters now:
Green

Solid back ups now:
Bradley
Sullinger
Zeller
Wright
Nelson
Bass
Turner

Back ups now:
Olynyk- May upgrade to Solid Backup Soon
Crowder
Thornton

Marginal NBA players:
Wallace
Pressey

Incomplete/Too Soon
Smart
Young

NYCelt wrote:kdp,

Looks good.  I'd agree with the idea that it's too soon to really rate Smart or Young, although I think Smart has shown promise to rank as a starter soon.  Young needs some time to heal and develop, we take these guys so soon.

I make it…

Players rated as NBA starters now:
Green

Solid back ups now:
Bradley
Sullinger
Zeller
Wright
Nelson
Bass
Turner

Back ups now:
Olynyk- May upgrade to Solid Backup Soon
Crowder
Thornton

Marginal NBA players:
Wallace
Pressey

Incomplete/Too Soon
Smart
Young

Nycelt,

That is an extraordinarily downbeat assessment.  You only have us with ONE NBA starter?  You have Kelly as a back up but not a solid one?  So, are you saying that on another team he wouldn't be in the top 9 or10?  He wouldn't crack the rotation without an injury to someone?  Same with Smart?  You think it is premature to say he is a legit NBA rotation player?


bob



.

bobc33 wrote:KDP,  I like the way this looks at things.  I think depending on where a team is in the building process looking at the first 8-10 players on a roster and seeing them all fit in the first two categories is vital.  I might add a top grade of an all star caliber starter....  My thinking  is you need at least a couple of all stars to go deep in the playoffs.  Nice work!

yes, I would have had a higher grade of NBA all-star player.

but we simply have no one that fits that level right now, so I didn't include it.

I find that when I do something like this (reviewing my personal opinions of EACH player) it helps me see the overall picture a bit differently.

I try to write down my honest take on each player and what I think their max ability could be. It helps me see not only where the team is right now, but where they could possibly be headed.

I see that there are (and should be) different opinions on certain players. But I would note that most agree that right now this team has ZERO stars, with about 8 players who are NBA starters or rotational players. That's a team that is a marginal playoff team (which I think this years team is).

With a young team with a lot of future draft picks and with some cap space starting next season, it's not a bad place to be.

I would also agree with most of kdp's roster assessments.

I am also a believer that Stevens and his staff will continue to make each of these young players better and better. He and his staff have already shown me that they have the ability to make players better and better.

One thing to be concerned with right now is finding minutes for all of these guys to develop further and also enough minutes to play the guys who they may want to trade this season. Both factors are very important, but serving one more than the other is not practical.

bobheckler wrote:

NYCelt wrote:kdp,

Looks good.  I'd agree with the idea that it's too soon to really rate Smart or Young, although I think Smart has shown promise to rank as a starter soon.  Young needs some time to heal and develop, we take these guys so soon.

I make it…

Players rated as NBA starters now:
Green

Solid back ups now:
Bradley
Sullinger
Zeller
Wright
Nelson
Bass
Turner

Back ups now:
Olynyk- May upgrade to Solid Backup Soon
Crowder
Thornton

Marginal NBA players:
Wallace
Pressey

Incomplete/Too Soon
Smart
Young

Nycelt,

That is an extraordinarily downbeat assessment.  You only have us with ONE NBA starter?  You have Kelly as a back up but not a solid one?  So, are you saying that on another team he wouldn't be in the top 9 or10?  He wouldn't crack the rotation without an injury to someone?  Same with Smart?  You think it is premature to say he is a legit NBA rotation player?


bob



.

Bob,

Not meant to be downbeat at all, just the way I see the current roster.

I think rating 7 of our current guys as solid backups is pretty optimistic.

Kelly hasn't put in the strongest performances against higher level teams.  I would elevate him should he attain that type of consistent output.

I think Smart is going to be a top 10 point guard in the NBA, which I have stated previously; I've gone as far as to state this is already his team.  I put him and Young into a "too soon" category since they're only a couple of months into their first season.  Smart hasn't even played two months worth due to injuries.  Too soon to rate rookies IMO.

Regards