Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts

http://thesportsquotient.com/nba/2015/9/21/projecting-bostons-rookie-impacts





Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts

by Ryan Nolan 21 September 2015, 12:50 PM






Boston’s rookies will struggle to earn playing time on this competitive Celtics team.


After finishing the 2014-2015 season with some momentum, the Boston Celtics are primed for another leap this year, headlined by a mix of veterans and incoming rookies. General Manager Danny Ainge was in a prime position to bring in young, inexpensive talent using his treasure chest of draft picks.

Ainge had the 16th and 28th pick, along with an early second round pick, the 33rd, in June’s NBA Draft. With these picks, Ainge acquired three very promising rookies, who could all make an immediate impact, even with large amounts of depth at every position. However,the most unlikely pick is the one that may get the most minutes out of all positions.

Their 16th pick was used to select Terry Rozier, a standout guard from Louisville. As an undersized guard standing at 6’1” 190lbs, Rozier has star power athleticism that helps him penetrate defenses. When executed correctly, this dribble penetration can help collapse defenses and create open shots for teammates. Rozier has average inside scoring ability, and a knack for getting off tricky, tight passes to his teammates. This aspect of his game will be critical when he finds time on the floor.  

Unfortunately for Rozier, he is competing to earn time in a crowded back-court, with seven guards seeking playing time. In order for Rozier to see time, he needs to improve his shooting, which is a slight weakness to his game.

Rozier has an inconsistent shot, expanding his range will be key in keeping defenders honest as he attempts to use his speed to get to the basket. If he can consistently knock down shots outside the paint,not only will he score more and help the team, but he will see an increase inplaying time and put pressure on the front office to make a move to trade aguard.  

Rozier dominated the NBA Summer League, averaging 12 points, 3 rebounds, and 4 assists. Most importantly the young guard maintained an impressive assist/turnover ratio of 2:1. Just looking at the game log, he struggled with scoring consistently, as any rookie would. Luckily, with so much depth at guard, Rozier will only see the floor in situations suited to his talents. This being the case, he can use that time to develop quickly and adjust his game to the NBA. Look for Rozier to dominate in minimal game action.

Boston had another first round pick, and took RJ Hunter out of Georgia State. Hunter will help immediately with his scoring ability from deep, already demonstrated by his three point proficiency in college. With a small sample size in summer league, he showed his willingness to shoot, but lacked consistency, especially scoring the ball. At 6-foot, 6-inches, Hunter has great size for a shooting guard and a long wingspan. To go along with his great size, he has an impressive mentality to drive it to the hoop when he finds the opportunity.    

On the other end, he’s a better defender than what certain media analysts believe. On the outside, people see that he is not quick enough, however, in order to make up for what he lacks in quickness, he uses his intelligence to recover. Hunter has the ability to find a point on the floor and commit to beating his opponent to that spot, cutting off his man should he get beat off the dribble. Some players lack this kind of intelligence their entire careers, especially on defense, so this is a huge advantage for Hunter.  

Hunter struggled in his first two games in summer league, not scoring a single point. However, by the third game he found a consistency, scoring 18,13, 21, 13, 9, and 22 points in his last six games. After going 4-4 from behind the three-point line in his third game, he struggled to shoot consistently. Most of his scoring came from the free throw line (where he shoots 90%) something unique for a rookie.

Once the season is underway, I believe that Hunter will see more playing time than Terry Rozier, because of two reasons. First, Rozier is listed behind, 6th pick Marcus Smart and Sixth Man of the Year runner up Isaiah Thomas. Finding minutes for Rozier will be difficult, but he’ll definitely will see some minutes in certain situations.

Second, Hunter can beat out James Young for the backup shooting guard spot behind defensive-mastermind Avery Bradley.

Young shows inconsistency and has an injury history, so Hunter should prepare himself to play extended backup minutes every night. When he gets the opportunity, Hunter needs to show he can shoot from deep consistently in order to secure the backup guard role.  

With an early second round pick, Boston selected forward/center Jordan Mickey of LSU. The media went crazy initially, questioning why Boston’s need for another power forward.      

Let’s calm down, and take a minute to diagnose Mickey’s real role with the Celtics.    

Mickey was brought in to be a shot-blocking center. He averaged 3.4 blocks per game in college, which was first in the nation. Nowadays teams draft seven-footers just because they’re seven-feet tall. Mickey stands at 6-foot, 9-inches, on a good day, so he immediately screams power forward, but, diving in a little deeper, he has an impressive wingspan of seven feet, four inches.

The seven footers on the Celtics currently, Kelly Olynyk and Tyler Zeller, have a 6-foot, 10 inch and 7-foot wingspan, respectively. So as one of the smallest front court players, he has the biggest wingspan, something that is more critical to shot-blocking than being seven feet tall. His defensive game reminds me of JJ Hickson, an undersized, 6-foot, 10-inch forward, shot-blocking center, who has stuck in the NBA; and someone he might model his game after.  

He began to prove his worth in the Summer League, where he averaged 12 points per game, 8 rebounds per game, and 2.5 blocks per game. With an impressive inside scoring ability because of his natural touch and relentless attitude around the basket, Mickey performed at a high level at both ends of the court.  

Mickey’s play this Summer might help his case to get more minutes than both Rozier and Hunter initially, as the Celtics lack shot-blocking talent. However, I believe Hunter will find more time than both Rozier and Mickey because he’s in the best spot to grab a backup role quickly, whether through injury or inconsistency from those higher up in the rotation.



bob
MY NOTE:  I'm loathe to try and project minutes for these guys for two reasons and they are that Brad wants to win and you do that with veterans in this league and the second is that Trader Danny is stalking the sidelines.  We don't know who will be on the team and that makes a huge difference in how many minutes they play.  If Sully and/or Kelly are gone in a trade for Cousins or Horford then Mickey is going to get minutes.  If it's Bradley that's gone, then Rozier will get minutes. And I don't see Brad playing kids who aren't ready for prime time just so he can say he's "developing them". They are going to have to prove they're ready or there has to be an injury that opens up a window of opportunity for them.

But that's me.  Anybody want to take swing at this?


.

standing reach

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-draft-measurements/?year=All&sort2=DESC&draft=&pos=&source=All&sort=1

Kelly O- 9'-0
Zeller- 8'-81/2
Mickey- 8'-10

don't ask me how Kelly has the highest reach with the shortest arms?

The very fact that they were picked in the bottom half of the 1st round or the 2nd round lessens the odds of their being anything more than 7th or 8th in the rotation, but I'll be hoping that Danny has beaten the odds and has found a diamond in the rough or maybe even two or three.

swish

KO is 4 inches taller than Mickey, and I suspect Zeller's measurement is off by an inch or two. Perhaps Zeller wanted to measure out short (standing reach-wise) to make his vertical leaping numbers look more impressive.

Mickey could only be a center against small ball lineups, where guys like Draymond Green are playing center.

The average NBA center's standing reach is 9'1.5", while Mickey's is 6'10". 6'10" is also the average for NBA PFs.

More importantly, Mickey has a very long neck, which means his torso is the size of somebody an inch or two shorter. That's why his standing reach is only 8'10" despite his enormous wingspan. But having a shorter torso has ramifications for his ability to gain significant weight.

He might always be a 240-245 lb PF. While that's not a disaster, it will certainly make the center position much more of a challenge.

But I still think Mickey can be a very good PF. But being 6'8" with slightly below average strength puts a certain ceiling on how good he can be. Even Ibaka struggles with strength at PF, as does Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel, Brandon Wright, Gorgui Dieng, and Chris Bosh when he was in Toronto.

But Mickey could end up being a good starting PF for us perhaps sooner than later. His strengths just might fit well with the current roster, which would maximize his ceiling and impact.

Mickey's first step is explosive, as you'd expect from an explosive leaper. Playing alongside a stretch center like Olynyk, Mickey would have a wide open lane to attack from the high post or mid-range. And he's acrobatic enough to get plenty of points off post ups in isolation.
Plus he can beat other PFs up and down the court with superior speed.

Swish,
I agree with you on all the rookies. We shouldn't be expecting a whole lot this year from any of them. We have a deep team right now and it may take a year or two for them to move into a regular rotation.

Cowens,

Man, if Mickey could turn into a Ben Wallace type PF that would be sweet for sure. If I remember correctly it did take Wallace a few years before he became a starter though.

Rambone,
I think you're right on it with Mickey having a chance to be a good NBA PF. I'm not sure why the story has him as a possible center for us, frankly. But do we really play a center today anyway?

overall, unless OR until Danny makes another trade it's hard for me to see much playing time for any of the rookies. Stevens seems to like a 10 man or less rotation per game.

Zeller
Kelly
Lee
Amir
Sully
Jerebko
Crowder
Turner
Bradley
Smart
Thomas

that's 11 vets right there.

It will be both great and somewhat surprising to me if any of the three rookies make major contribution to this year's team.

There are a lot of young veteran players already on the roster who should all be ahead of these three new guys in every aspect of the game that deals with experience while most of the young vets are just that--pretty young themselves so they should not need tons of rest if they are playing lots of minutes.

This does not mean that the rookies may not bring some beneficial skills to the table and force their way into additional playing minutes. Competition is what it is and I am sure that Stevens and staff will foster as much of it as possible. If the rooks get playing time then the vets will be more expendable. If the rooks sit the team may be able to win more games.

Let the pre season start!!

I'm hoping that Rozier is starting by January.

None of these guys are 18-19 years old, and they're all level headed and bring NBA ready skills.

If any of the three plays comparably to an older player who has less upside, there's going to be a strong argument for playing one/all of these rookies over the older guy(s). Especially if Brad and Danny think they can win and develop young guys at the same time.

Avery Bradley and Evan Turner didn't do themselves any favors in the playoffs, and IT4 showed some of his limitations as well. Rozier has the talent and NBA ready skill-set to press those guys for minutes, especially after a couple/few months of adjustment. Rozier was drafted over a lot of other quality prospects for a reason, and that reason wasn't to play in Maine this year. Not as a 21 year old with a lot more confidence and aggressiveness than James Young has shown so far.

Having vets in front of a prospect only matters if the vets are clearly better, and I'm not sure how much that's the case here.

Mickey is probably quicker and a better shot blocker than Amir Johnson from Day 1. His jump shot looked confident and effortless in summer league, and he showed a wide variety of acrobatic scoring moves around the hoop, after training with NBA skills coaches all summer. He has elite explosiveness for an NBA PF, and if he's playing alongside a stretch center like KO, Mickey could probably attack the hoop about as successfully as IT4 is able to do. Mickey might even show up to training camp with a solid corner 3 point shot. I'd say Mickey was/is underrated offensively, and perhaps his skill development was just a year behind some other prospects like Bobby Portis.

The success of the Warriors is going to embolden a lot of coaches to take more chances on smaller lineups, and those coaches will be supported by a lot of front offices who realize that size and even rebounding aren't everything. The Heat were one of the worst rebounding teams in the league when they won one or two of their recent titles.

A Rozier-Smart-Crowder-Mickey-Olynyk starting five may very well emerge at some point, and it might even be a successful lineup with great balance on offense and defense.

Cow I agree about K.O. and his liabilities and with the addition of Lee and johnson i'm wondering if mr. The Rex Arms wouldn't best serve us by being traded- him and 8000 of our second rounders for a similar sized expiring bust type player for a future first and the right for us to swap an additional first.


I think we have an idea of what he is, we got plenty of others to develop and if it's all about wins I the Lee and Johnson will provide us with more than our favorite canadian

Matty wrote:Cow I agree about K.O. and his liabilities and with the addition of Lee and johnson i'm wondering if mr. The Rex Arms wouldn't best serve us by being traded- him and 8000 of our second rounders for a similar sized expiring bust type player  for a future first and the right for us to swap an additional  first.  


I think we have an idea of what he is, we got plenty of others to develop and if it's all about wins I the Lee and Johnson will provide us with more than our favorite canadian

You say it's all about wins, but did you know that KO led the Celtics in +/- as a rookie, and then again as a sophomore? You say it's all about wins, but you want to trade off our young, two-time reigning +/- king for yet another (unneeded) first round pick?

You say it's about wins, but is it really about wingspan measurements?

KO was our starting center on opening night each of the last two years. This was KO's opening night performance last year against KG


Do you really think that KO has already peaked? Do you not think it matters that he's gained more muscle this summer? He won't get any more consistent than he was in his second season?

KO is a year younger than Zeller, and was a late-bloomer physically compared to Zeller. If you paid attention to the FIBA games this summer, it was clear that KO was stronger than he was last year, which was stronger than he was as a rookie. Two years ago Zeller wasn't strong enough to get extended minutes on a bad Cleveland team, but he got a little stronger that summer and emerged as a solid starting center for us.

Why are you guys so stubborn in wanting to write Olynyk off already, when his body is still obviously developing?

And why does good 3 point shooting from the center position not impress you guys at all? Why does great ball handling ability and passing ability not impress you, unless it comes from a position other than center?

I swear some of you guys care more about blocks per game and wingspan than victories.

Winning matters most, you guys say, and yet when the Celtics dramatically improve from a 33% winning team in the first half of the season, to a 66% winning team in the second half, some of you guys aren't even impressed, and go so far as to call it a fluke. As if IT4 isn't locked into a super-cheap contract, and as if all our young players, including KO, aren't getting better this summer, and next summer too.

When you only want to win in a very specific way, with a shot blocking and rebounding center like Robert Upshaw or Andre Drummond, you might want to ask yourselves if winning is really the most important thing to you, or if shot blocking is the most important thing, and winning doesn't matter unless it includes a shot blocking center.

The team dramatically improved last year, right in the middle of the season no less, and yet you guys call it a fluke. And then you claim winning is the most important thing to you.

And having the NCAA shot blocking leader in Mickey doesn't even matter, because he's a shot-blocking monster from the PF position, unlike the undrafted Robert Upshaw, superstar.

Cowens, what is more important to you, winning or having a shot blocking center? Because you already showed a low appreciation for winning, and called it a fluke, but Robert Freaking Upshaw gets you way more excited than winning.

The Warriors just won a championship by playing Draymond Green at center most of the time, after the Spurs and Heat won the last 3 titles with skilled, non-shot blocking centers.

And yet still, Still! you cling to the outdated concept that only a rim protecting center can win a championship. And unless KO's wingspan suddenly grows, you've already seen enough of him, want to ship him out on the first train, and have already seen enough of him and the elite offensive efficiency that results just about every single time he's on the basketball court.

And obviously, Obviously! he's still getting better, more consistent, more confident, and physically stronger.

Elite offensive center with improving strength and toughness? Not good enough for you guys. Not even with an elite shot blocker at PF, or at least Amir Johnson rather than Brandon Bass.

Maybe KO (and Mickey) ride the pine all year, but don't be surprised if KO starts at center on opening night for the third year in a row, and don't be surprised if he yet again leads the Celtics in +/- like he has his entire career so far.

And don't be surprised when the Celtics yet again blow expectations away, and inch closer to Banner 18, while Andre Drummond, and most other stone-hands "rim protectors" are still losing more than they're winning, looking like middle school kids offensively and destroying offensive efficiency. Not to mention, sitting on the bench in the fourth quarter because they can barely hit the rim on their free throws.

cowens/oldschool wrote:matty agree you can't hide him on the floor, offenses know where to move the ball, he can't cover 5's, will get run over, too slow and gets equally run over by 4's. It was so pathetic seeing Sully or Bass covering the biggest player on the floor cause at least they could put a body on him, while KO always had the weakest to cover and could never even do that.

Larry Bird said he always wondered why people got so excited about some guy dunking on Bird, when he'd just go down the court and hit a 3 pointer on the guy. Nobody would talk about the 3 pointer, but everybody would talk about the dunk on Bird.

As if the dunk was worth more than the 3.

You guys take it one step further, placing (much) higher value on a block shot than a 3 pointer by Olynyk. Sure, the block makes it onto Sportscenter, and gets twitter talking, but that doesn't really mean anything at the end of the day. At the end of the day, KO is most likely walking away with the higher +/- than the guy jumping around the court fishing for highlight blocks.

Rather than view the five positions in basketball as rigid, inflexible roles that must be filled in extremely specific play-styles, you guys should think about the 5 man unit as a whole.

It's okay to have a 3 and D point guard like Derrick Fisher, rather than an assist chasing, fake defense point guard like Rondo. You can win with either, if the rest of the 5 man unit is built to compensate for the flaws of each player in the unit.

You can absolutely win with an offensive center like KO or Zeller, but you can't do it with a terrible defending PF like Sully or Bass.

The only situation in which you truly NEED a shot blocking center is if the guards in that lineup play turnstile defense like Rondo.

Most of the top point guards today are lousy defenders that NEED a rim protecting center center behind them, or at least top notch defenders all around them.

Imagine if nobody appreciated Steph Curry because he wasn't a top passing point guard, and because he wasn't a very good defender. That would be extremely foolish, right? The same principle applies for non-MVPs as well, and it applies for all five positions, not just point guards.

Rather than arbitrarily declare that a rim protecting center is a MUST, stop and think for a minute about how the defensive flaws of an exceptional offensive center can be compensated for.

With a highly efficient offensive center like KO or Zeller, who lack great defense, the way you successfully compensate for their weaknesses is to surround them with good defenders.

Well what do you know, the Celtics have two all-defense team level guard defenders in Bradley and Smart, and now Rozier has that same potential. That's a big reason he was drafted 16th, because Brad and Danny know the importance of having guards who can defend the Steph Currys and Irvings and Lillards and Walls of the league.

Then you add in a solid defender at SF like Crowder, and a good defensive PF like Amir or Mickey, and the issue of Zeller or KO's defensive shortcomings are more than compensated for.

Now, how do you compensate for the rebounding shortcomings of a Zeller or KO? You surround them with good rebounders. Smart is an elite rebounder for a guard, and Rozier was one of the very best rebounding guards in college basketball last year.

Rozier is a much better rebounder than Bradley, so if Rozier can become a good/great defender sooner rather than later, his rebounding ability (in addition to his ballhandling, passing, aggressiveness advantages over Bradley) could get Rozier into the starting lineup, even as a rookie.

It's all about winning, and winning is all about a well balanced five man unit that plays well together, as a unit.

Details like the specific statistical output at any specific position are utterly secondary, and even arbitrary, to the Real goal, which is winning.

The good thing about Mickey is that he's got a very rare combination of defensive and offensive skills for a PF. He can both block shots/rim protect, AND spread the floor with a rock solid mid-range jump shot. Bass only had the jump shot.

A player with Mickey's skills can work great with either a stretch center like KO, or with a post scorer like Sully or David Lee.

Lee's lack of defense and a 3 point shot mean that his skill set of post scoring and rebounding is increasingly viewed as archaic and less valuable in this era of analytics that values the 3 and Defense more than ever.
But that's mostly because there are so few guys like Ibaka and Mickey, PFs who can both protect the rim and spread the floor with a good jump shot.

Right now everybody's talking about small ball, because the Warriors won with it, while Bogut and Mozgov were glued to the bench.

But next year if the Rockets win the championship with Dwight Howard, everybody will be buzzing again about how valuable a rim protecting center is, and how you can't win a title without one.

The reality is that you can win with either style, or any of a few other styles. When people declare that now you can only win with small ball, or you can only win with a rim protecting center, they're just making arbitrary declarations.

Kind of like how the NFL believed you could only win a Super Bowl with a 4-3 defensive front and a linebacker like Lawrence Taylor, until the Patriots won 3 out of 4 Super Bowls with a 3-4 defensive front, and half the league copied them.

It's about the totality of the 5 man unit in basketball, and getting the players to play as a whole, greater than the sum of its parts. Same goes for football or any other team sport.

KO showed improvement last year in several areas.

He can best be utilized on offense provided he is in there with either Lee, Zeller or Sully who can play down low on defense.

KO's deficiencies have been well documented.  He is not going to get any taller and his arms are not going to get any longer and his lateral quickness may not improve much either.  

He can add some strength but that has limitations as well.

Stevens knows that KO is just not a suitable 5 because of his deficiencies on defense.   Now that Johnson and lee have been added to the team we may see KO used primarily as a specialty player to help spread the floor with his 3 point shooting abilities.

There is nothing wrong with that role.  As I have stated many many times, I thought picking him was a mistake.  I would have drafted a real center (Dieng)  So if he is traded exactly what would we be missing from him that is so extraordinary that it cannot be replaced?

He is a 3 point shooter that happens to be 7 feet tall.  That is who he is.

dboss

KO has played most of his minutes so far at center, so you guys might want to tell Brad he's accidentally been playing KO at center.

Silly Brad never got the memo that KO isn't a center, despite the many declarations around here.

Silly Brad and his ragtag collection of nobodies just stumbled into a 66% winning percentage with a couple of scrub non-centers in KO and Zeller playing the center position.

Somebody tell Brad it was all a fluke, and KO's 3 pointers are worth less than a blocked shot from a REAL center, like Perk.

Because 4 on 5 offense is just so much cooler than 5 on 5 offense with the other team's rim protector trying to defend the 3 point line.

Calling Olynyk just a 3 point shooter is to intentionally ignore his passing skills, his ball handling ability, his crafty scoring around the basket, and his mid-range game, which includes an effortless one-legged fade-away jumper.

KO can score, pass, and dribble with either hand, while most centers, including most of your favorite shot blockers, are almost completely one handed, aka handicapped. And even with their good hand, they usually can't score outside of dunks. They can't even be on the court in the 4th quarter because they can't make a free throw.

KO is just about the most offensively skilled center outside of the Gasol brothers and perhaps Cousins. But because he doesn't block a lot of shots you guys diss and dismiss him as merely a one-trick-pony 3 point shooter. Not even a center, you declare, despite all the evidence of him already being a center, and a winning center at that. If Olynyk was so terrible at center, where he gets most of his minutes, how the heck do you think he led the team in +/- for two years in a row? His first two years in the league?

You say +/- doesn't PROVE anything, while making completely unfounded declarations about Olynyk that have nothing to do with reality. You can't even point to the team being better without KO on the court. You can't point to it, because the FACT is that the team is much, much better with KO on the court, where he mostly plays center.

If anybody should be able to appreciate a team-first, highly skilled 7 foot center like Olynyk, it should be Celtics fans. I just don't get the irrational hate.

dboss wrote:KO showed improvement last year in several areas.

He can best be utilized on offense provided he is in there with either Lee, Zeller or Sully who can play down low on defense.

KO's deficiencies have been well documented.  He is not going to get any taller and his arms are not going to get any longer and his lateral quickness may not improve much either.  

He can add some strength but that has limitations as well.

Stevens knows that KO is just not a suitable 5 because of his deficiencies on defense.   Now that Johnson and lee have been added to the team we may see KO used primarily as a specialty player to help spread the floor with his 3 point shooting abilities.

There is nothing wrong with that role.  As I have stated many many times, I thought picking him was a mistake.  I would have drafted a real center (Dieng)  So if he is traded exactly what would we be missing from him that is so extraordinary that it cannot be replaced?

He is a 3 point shooter that happens to be 7 feet tall.  That is who he is.

dboss

You falsely declare, against all evidence, that KO isn't a center, and then you go on to declare that Dieng IS a real center, even though Dieng plays many/most of his minutes at PF, because he is too scrawny and ineffective to play center. Yeah, if only we drafted that guy.

KO probably weighs 250-260 by now, while Dieng is still around 235-240, older, and way more limited skill-wise than Olynyk.

Let me know when game scores get decided by wingspan measurements and blocked shots. Until then, I'll take winning with "non-center"s every single time.

Real plus-minus isn't a perfect stat, but it's a much better stat than simple blocks or rebounds in the box score.

2014-15 Real Plus-Minus - Centers
RK NAME TEAM GP MPG ORPM DRPM RPM WAR
1 DeMarcus Cousins SAC 59 34.1 1.41 4.71 6.12 10.86
2 Zaza Pachulia MIL 73 23.7 1.38 3.42 4.80 7.66
3 Tyson Chandler DAL 75 30.5 1.04 3.54 4.58 9.99
4 DeAndre Jordan LAC 82 34.4 2.03 2.43 4.46 12.08
5 Marc Gasol MEM 81 33.2 1.70 1.91 3.61 9.68
6 Kelly Olynyk BOS 64 22.3 1.79 1.71 3.50 5.27
7 Andrew Bogut GS 67 23.6 -1.81 4.97 3.16 5.58
8 Timofey Mozgov CLE/DEN 81 25.3 -0.57 3.43 2.86 6.68
9 Greg Monroe DET 69 31.0 0.37 2.28 2.65 6.49
10 Marcin Gortat WSH 82 29.9 -0.10 2.56 2.46 7.28
11 Jusuf Nurkic DEN 62 17.8 -1.69 4.02 2.33 3.33
12 Al Horford ATL 76 30.5 0.32 1.82 2.14 6.34
13 Rudy Gobert UTAH 82 26.3 -1.66 3.63 1.97 5.54
14 Dwight Howard HOU 41 29.8 -0.12 2.08 1.96 3.32
15 Joakim Noah CHI 67 30.6 -1.12 2.21 1.09 4.33
16 Tristan Thompson CLE 82 26.8 1.34 -0.48 0.86 4.25
17 Joel Anthony DET 49 8.3 -1.82 2.68 0.86 0.80
18 Kosta Koufos MEM 81 16.6 -2.56 3.30 0.74 2.56
19 Andre Drummond DET 82 30.5 -0.07 0.81 0.74 4.75
20 Hassan Whiteside MIA 48 23.8 -0.96 1.64 0.68 2.10
21 Chris Bosh MIA 44 35.4 0.72 -0.04 0.68 2.82
22 Tyler Zeller BOS 82 21.1 -0.78 1.36 0.58 3.25
23 Nikola Pekovic MIN 31 26.3 -0.43 0.99 0.56 1.49
24 Robin Lopez POR 59 27.8 -1.21 1.74 0.53 2.94
25 Boris Diaw SA 81 24.5 -0.20 0.26 0.06 2.93
26 Roy Hibbert IND 76 25.3 -2.44 2.43 -0.01 2.73
27 Alexis Ajinca NO 68 14.1 -1.01 0.90 -0.11 1.27
28 Meyers Leonard POR 55 15.4 -1.88 1.71 -0.17 1.16
29 Chuck Hayes TOR 29 8.8 -0.33 0.08 -0.25 0.33
30 Nazr Mohammed CHI 23 5.6 -0.89 0.34 -0.55 0.14
31 Dewayne Dedmon ORL 59 14.3 -2.79 2.20 -0.59 0.92
32 Brook Lopez BKN 72 29.2 -0.76 0.16 -0.60 2.22
33 Jonas Valanciunas TOR 80 26.2 -1.71 1.03 -0.68 2.17
34 Alex Len PHX 69 22.0 -2.90 2.16 -0.74 1.59
35 Gorgui Dieng MIN 73 30.0 -1.42 0.68 -0.74 2.20
36 Ian Mahinmi IND 61 18.8 -3.22 2.47 -0.75 1.13
37 Al Jefferson CHA 65 30.6 -1.47 0.56 -0.91 1.75
38 Robert Sacre LAL 67 16.9 -2.61 1.59 -1.02 0.93
39 Reggie Evans SAC 47 16.3 -1.07 -0.09 -1.16 0.55
40 Steven Adams OKC 70 25.3 -2.72 1.54 -1.18 1.30
2014-15 Real Plus-Minus - Centers
RK NAME TEAM GP MPG ORPM DRPM RPM WAR
41 Omer Asik NO 76 26.1 -3.01 1.83 -1.18 1.41
42 Ryan Hollins SAC 46 9.6 -1.98 0.77 -1.21 0.32
43 Lucas Nogueira TOR 6 3.8 -0.92 -0.35 -1.27 0.02
44 Marreese Speights GS 76 15.9 0.02 -1.47 -1.45 0.72
45 Clint Capela HOU 12 7.5 -1.97 0.49 -1.48 0.05
46 Nerlens Noel PHI 75 30.8 -4.85 3.35 -1.50 1.24
47 Jeff Withey NO 37 7.0 -0.83 -0.70 -1.53 0.13
48 Festus Ezeli GS 46 11.0 -2.14 0.57 -1.57 0.25
49 Miles Plumlee MIL/PHX 73 16.4 -2.01 0.28 -1.73 0.46
50 Nikola Vucevic ORL 74 34.2 -1.48 -0.37 -1.85 0.79
51 Greg Stiemsma TOR 17 3.9 -1.24 -0.65 -1.89 0.02
52 Tarik Black HOU/LAL 63 19.0 -1.67 -0.28 -1.95 0.29
53 Enes Kanter OKC/UTAH 75 28.5 1.15 -3.87 -2.72 -0.49
54 Anderson Varejao CLE 26 24.5 -2.23 -0.57 -2.80 -0.18
55 John Henson MIL 67 18.3 -4.13 1.32 -2.81 -0.35
56 Cole Aldrich NY 61 16.0 -4.78 1.51 -3.27 -0.54
57 JaVale McGee DEN/PHI 23 11.1 -1.47 -1.80 -3.27 -0.15
58 Jerome Jordan BKN 44 8.7 -2.65 -0.65 -3.30 -0.22
59 Samuel Dalembert NY 32 17.0 -4.76 1.40 -3.36 -0.32
60 Chris Kaman POR 74 18.9 -2.56 -1.25 -3.81 -1.26
61 Henry Sims PHI 73 19.2 -4.18 0.28 -3.90 -1.37
62 Kendrick Perkins CLE/OKC 68 16.9 -4.97 1.06 -3.91 -1.12
63 Matt Bonner SA 72 13.0 -1.45 -2.52 -3.97 -0.94
64 DeJuan Blair WSH 29 6.2 -2.96 -1.30 -4.26 -0.21
65 Jordan Hill LAL 70 26.8 -2.95 -1.42 -4.37 -2.34
66 Andrea Bargnani NY 29 27.1 -1.72 -3.57 -5.29 -1.40

Glossary
GP: Games Played
MPG: Minutes Per Game
ORPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team offensive performance, measured in points scored per 100 offensive possessions
DRPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team defensive performance, measured in points allowed per 100 defensive possessions
RPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors
WAR: The estimated number of team wins attributable to each player, based on RPM
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/RPM/position/9

How many centers in the NBA can do this?



For one thing, other than Bosh and Myers Leonard, most every other center couldn't even draw the close out at the 3 point line. Most centers would just be left wide open and openly dared to shoot. But KO draws the urgent close-out. Now with Rozier, and a full season of IT4, KO will get many many more of these opportunities to attack close-outs off the dribble.

And not only can KO draw the close-outs, and not only can he put the ball on the floor, he can do it with his head up, like the former point guard he is. And then he adds in the sick pass fake, while dribbling with his head up, after drawing the close-out because his 3 pointer must be respected. Not to mention he can actually pass while dribbling, another skill that is exceedingly rare among centers.

You guys can call him "just a 3 point shooter", and pretend that all his other skills don't exist, or you can accept that they do exist but that they don't matter because he's a center. Either way, it doesn't change the fact that in reality all those other skills DO matter, they DO help win games, and they DO show up in all the advanced stats.

Here's another reason KO will be highly effective with Mickey and Amir, rather than Bass and Sully:



The only time most centers make a lob like that is when they're throwing up airballs at the FT line.

He's a stretch center. Not every center needs to post up. There's no box that they have to stand in, except the court boundaries.

If there was such a box on the floor, near the basket, marked "Centers here", I could totally understand how KO would not be a center, playing where he does.

Most centers play as if they're in an invisible box near the basket. Which makes them unaccustomed, and poorly suited for, defending stretch centers like Olynyk at the 3 point line.
KO being able to handle the ball like a guard is another tool opposing centers are unaccustomed to defending, especially so far from the basket.

At the center position, the athleticism level is generally so low that even slow guys like Olynyk can blow by them, or cross them over and break their ankles.

KO's lack of wingspan has a minimal effect on his offensive game. It doesn't matter as much, when you can shoot threes and one legged fade-aways off either foot, with either hand.

IT4 played like Russell Westbrook every time Jerebko and Olynyk were out there with him, spreading the floor and vacating the lane of all help defenders/rim protectors.

Terry Rozier looks like another super-quick scoring guard who can get past his man any time. Hopefully Bradley spent the summer working on his ball handling rather than his jump shot as usual. Because he has all the quicks in the world to get to the lane at will, especially since he has a good jump shot.

Smart will be quicker, tougher, and more assertive driving to the lane this year with a healed ankle, and Smart was about as good as James Harden at scoring at the rim and drawing fouls in college.

Crowder is pretty explosive as well, but he doesn't have enough polish to handle a lot of help defense when he drives to the basket. But with an open lane, free of defenders, I be Crowder can lower his head and get there any time he wants.