Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
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cowens/oldschool
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kdp59
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Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
cowens/oldschool wrote:watch old tapes of Shaq, Olajuwon, Ewing, David Robinson, Mourning, Jabbar, Wilt, Dave Cowens, Parrish, Moses Malone....that is how centers play offense at an elite level.
His defensive shortcomings have been documented, no need to go there.
He has never played center or played like a REAL center....if hes our center why do all the pundits say we need a center?
Cow, Shaq was so good that they changed the rules.
With zone defenses now legal, without worry of "illegal defense!" whistles, post scorers are much less able to be effective. With zone defenses etc, good big men get double teamed immediately. The result is low FG%. Ultimately less effective than a 33% 3pt shooter like Smart.
Maybe Jahlil Okafor can change that and be the new Shaq, but guys like Andre Drummond and DeAndre Jordan aren't scaring anybody. Neither is Perk. But under the old rules, all three would probably be pretty darn good, at least Drummond and Jordan. They could just back their man down, without having to worry about somebody stripping the ball away from behind.
They just changed the rules. And if you keep playing by the old rules, your assessment of value/quality is going to be slightly off.
rambone- Posts : 1057
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Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
you keep on bringing up his wingspan, I haven't brought that up once.
There was a mobile hard nosed aggressive center who played in the 70's that was shorter than KO, and he played center at 6'9" Dave Cowens, I'm not knocking his size, its his ability. Size doesn't really matter, if you can play, you can play....KO can't play well enough to influence the games in a winning matter, thats why he lost his starting job to Z, the few 3's or shots he hit were not enough to offset his turnstile defense.
KO cannot body up other centers or PF's, in other words he gets pushed around WAY too much, always giving up position. He's not athletic enough or mobile enough to be even a decent help defender, besides teams know where he is and move the ball to go right at him. Its what teams do, attack another teams weakness, just cause hes 7 foot you think hes a center, well his physicality or lack of it is NOT center like. 7 footers that cannot play or defend down low are not considered centers, you consider him a center, but come on MAN!!! LOOK at my list of centers from Shaq to Moses, those guys were centers, every facet of KO's game is UNCENTER like.
Go ahead call him a stretch 5, no else thinks hes a real CENTER or that we can win with him defending other centers or playing center!!!
There was a mobile hard nosed aggressive center who played in the 70's that was shorter than KO, and he played center at 6'9" Dave Cowens, I'm not knocking his size, its his ability. Size doesn't really matter, if you can play, you can play....KO can't play well enough to influence the games in a winning matter, thats why he lost his starting job to Z, the few 3's or shots he hit were not enough to offset his turnstile defense.
KO cannot body up other centers or PF's, in other words he gets pushed around WAY too much, always giving up position. He's not athletic enough or mobile enough to be even a decent help defender, besides teams know where he is and move the ball to go right at him. Its what teams do, attack another teams weakness, just cause hes 7 foot you think hes a center, well his physicality or lack of it is NOT center like. 7 footers that cannot play or defend down low are not considered centers, you consider him a center, but come on MAN!!! LOOK at my list of centers from Shaq to Moses, those guys were centers, every facet of KO's game is UNCENTER like.
Go ahead call him a stretch 5, no else thinks hes a real CENTER or that we can win with him defending other centers or playing center!!!
cowens/oldschool- Posts : 27706
Join date : 2009-10-18
Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
"KO can't play well enough to influence the games in a winning matter, thats why he lost his starting job to Z, the few 3's or shots he hit were not enough to offset his turnstile defense."
Can't influence the game in a winning manner?!!
I give up. I all but proved to you that he did, from his plus minus number the last two years, to his crazy on-court/off-court numbers, to his crazy high Real Plus Minus.
ALL the advanced stats point clearly to KO "impacting the games in a winning manner", but it goes in one ear and out the other.
I can't compete with that.
Can't influence the game in a winning manner?!!
I give up. I all but proved to you that he did, from his plus minus number the last two years, to his crazy on-court/off-court numbers, to his crazy high Real Plus Minus.
ALL the advanced stats point clearly to KO "impacting the games in a winning manner", but it goes in one ear and out the other.
I can't compete with that.
rambone- Posts : 1057
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Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
Hes not a center
cowens/oldschool- Posts : 27706
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Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
rambone I'm still waiting for your answer to my question, what part of his game is center-like?
On stats, you know who really understood stats, our missed fearless leader Sam, he was a famous statistician, he knew the validity and weakness of stats, while I do use stats occasionally, I'm really not a stat guy and Sam explained in detail the folly of the +/- stats that you swear by.
Hard to name any part of KO's game that emulates any of the great centers isn't it.
On stats, you know who really understood stats, our missed fearless leader Sam, he was a famous statistician, he knew the validity and weakness of stats, while I do use stats occasionally, I'm really not a stat guy and Sam explained in detail the folly of the +/- stats that you swear by.
Hard to name any part of KO's game that emulates any of the great centers isn't it.
cowens/oldschool- Posts : 27706
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Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
rambone wrote:dboss wrote:KO showed improvement last year in several areas.
He can best be utilized on offense provided he is in there with either Lee, Zeller or Sully who can play down low on defense.
KO's deficiencies have been well documented. He is not going to get any taller and his arms are not going to get any longer and his lateral quickness may not improve much either.
He can add some strength but that has limitations as well.
Stevens knows that KO is just not a suitable 5 because of his deficiencies on defense. Now that Johnson and lee have been added to the team we may see KO used primarily as a specialty player to help spread the floor with his 3 point shooting abilities.
There is nothing wrong with that role. As I have stated many many times, I thought picking him was a mistake. I would have drafted a real center (Dieng) So if he is traded exactly what would we be missing from him that is so extraordinary that it cannot be replaced?
He is a 3 point shooter that happens to be 7 feet tall. That is who he is.
dboss
You falsely declare, against all evidence, that KO isn't a center, and then you go on to declare that Dieng IS a real center, even though Dieng plays many/most of his minutes at PF, because he is too scrawny and ineffective to play center. Yeah, if only we drafted that guy.
KO probably weighs 250-260 by now, while Dieng is still around 235-240, older, and way more limited skill-wise than Olynyk.
Let me know when game scores get decided by wingspan measurements and blocked shots. Until then, I'll take winning with "non-center"s every single time.
Calm down please
I admit that KO is a center. I never said he wasn't. I only said he was not a very good center
I have also watched KO play and his defense sucks. He has no hops and cannot rebound out of position partly because he does not have a long wingspan. That is a factor believe it or not. As Sam used to say, he has heavy legs and is pitifully slow with his lateral movements so he remains a liability defending the pick and role. Every time I see him in an isolation situation the opponent uses him like a $2.00 hoe. He can add some weight but he is still a weak. He is a horrible excuse for a center. Why you insist on discussing +, - stats to try and prove you are right is beyond me. He cannot defend his own position or any other position for that matter.
So because I said I would have Drafted dieng you want to criticize him.
ok be factual at least. Dieng played center for the Wolves last year and rarely played PF. Like KO he was in his second year and he averaged 9.7 ppg and 8.3 rebounds to go along with 1.7 blocks.
KO averaged 10.3 PPG, 4.7 rebounds and 0.6 blocks.
The numbers speak for themselves. Dieng can be productive as a center and Kelly cannot. We need a center that can rebound and defend the rim but KO cannot do that for us. It really does not matter how much you like him or not like him. Either he can do the job or he cannot do the job and we have seen nothing to suggest that he will be a good rebounder and rim protector.
I rest my case.
dboss
dboss- Posts : 19220
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Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
Cowens, if zone defenses had been allowed throughout NBA history, the list of the great centers would look very different.
Shaq admitted that the rules change was terrible for big guys like him. That's why the Next Great Post Man, Jahlil Okafor, went THIRD in the draft this year.
Under the old rules, Okafor would have gone #1, because he'd be able to just bully his own man in the paint, Shaq-style, without having to worry about help defenses swarming him.
No team these days is trying to build their franchise around a traditional back to the basket center, except the Nets, if you want to call that building.
Under present-day rules, Larry Bird would probably be playing tons of minutes at center. He'd get scored on a fair amount, but you take the good with the bad, just like with every player. And the good of Bird at center would have been a whole lot, though with two bigger hall of famers in McHale and Parish, Bird's minutes at center would be much more limited than they would be for any other team without two hall of fame bigs.
Right now, Larry Bird is planning on playing Paul George almost exclusively at PF, and PG is only 6'8" and 225-235 lbs.
The rules of the game have changed, and analytics have gradually help reveal what types of scoring plays, line-up combinations, and offensive and defensive styles tend to be the most effective.
Having five REAL basketball players on the court instead of four + a Perk-like center turns out to have some real, major advantages.
Having five good passers on the court means you don't need a Rondo level passer as much. Because with good, unselfish ball movement (as opposed to one guy dominating the ball), and smart guys who know when to cut or when to look for the cutter, easy scoring opportunities suddenly appear everywhere.
If zone defenses were not allowed, and big guys like Okafor didn't have to worry as much about getting double teamed every single time, KO would be a lot less valuable at center, and I'd probably call him a PF who can play some center.
But with a dearth of Shaq-like forces in the NBA today, and with rules that favor guards and greatly hurt traditional post scoring centers, KO is basically an early version of the center of the future. And a damn good player.
You've heard Brad Stevens talk about positionless basketball, and how he doesn't use terms like "center" anymore. He just calls them "bigs", because traditional centers aren't nearly as important as they once were, and the talent pool of big, dominant centers is so low that shaping your whole franchise around guarding just 3-4 players would be fool-hardy.
Brad Stevens is the best young coach in basketball, and the basketball world knows it. Stevens adapts to the new rules, and isn't stuck in the 80s and 90s.
You talk about Shaq and all those guys as if they're still playing, and if we don't draft Robert Upshaw, Shaq's going to be dunking all over us come late October.
It's definitely good to have a Perk type on the team though, but not in the starting lineup. Only for situational use that might only come up every 3-4 games or so.
Somebody upthread made a good point about KO thriving off the bench, and at the end of games against tired centers. Perhaps like IT4 at point guard, KO might be able to play more minutes, more effectively, with somebody bigger starting the game and setting a defensive tone. So maybe this team needs an Avery Bradley type center. And maybe Amir or Zeller can play that role well, while also maximizing KO's minutes and effectiveness. Maybe KO could even be the most effective center on the team, while not starting, but almost always finishing the games. Just like IT4 is clearly better than Bradley, and a Bradley-like defensive guard like Bradley is much easier to find than a superb microwave scorer like IT4.
At the same time, the starting offense was worse than the starting defense last year.
But I suppose IT4 as well as KO might very well continue to come off the bench this year, after long deliberation by Brad and Danny.
Celtics bench as the best or second best bench in the NBA after the All Star Break last year.
That's a playoff team trait if ever there was one. Dominant bench and superior depth.
Shaq admitted that the rules change was terrible for big guys like him. That's why the Next Great Post Man, Jahlil Okafor, went THIRD in the draft this year.
Under the old rules, Okafor would have gone #1, because he'd be able to just bully his own man in the paint, Shaq-style, without having to worry about help defenses swarming him.
No team these days is trying to build their franchise around a traditional back to the basket center, except the Nets, if you want to call that building.
Under present-day rules, Larry Bird would probably be playing tons of minutes at center. He'd get scored on a fair amount, but you take the good with the bad, just like with every player. And the good of Bird at center would have been a whole lot, though with two bigger hall of famers in McHale and Parish, Bird's minutes at center would be much more limited than they would be for any other team without two hall of fame bigs.
Right now, Larry Bird is planning on playing Paul George almost exclusively at PF, and PG is only 6'8" and 225-235 lbs.
The rules of the game have changed, and analytics have gradually help reveal what types of scoring plays, line-up combinations, and offensive and defensive styles tend to be the most effective.
Having five REAL basketball players on the court instead of four + a Perk-like center turns out to have some real, major advantages.
Having five good passers on the court means you don't need a Rondo level passer as much. Because with good, unselfish ball movement (as opposed to one guy dominating the ball), and smart guys who know when to cut or when to look for the cutter, easy scoring opportunities suddenly appear everywhere.
If zone defenses were not allowed, and big guys like Okafor didn't have to worry as much about getting double teamed every single time, KO would be a lot less valuable at center, and I'd probably call him a PF who can play some center.
But with a dearth of Shaq-like forces in the NBA today, and with rules that favor guards and greatly hurt traditional post scoring centers, KO is basically an early version of the center of the future. And a damn good player.
You've heard Brad Stevens talk about positionless basketball, and how he doesn't use terms like "center" anymore. He just calls them "bigs", because traditional centers aren't nearly as important as they once were, and the talent pool of big, dominant centers is so low that shaping your whole franchise around guarding just 3-4 players would be fool-hardy.
Brad Stevens is the best young coach in basketball, and the basketball world knows it. Stevens adapts to the new rules, and isn't stuck in the 80s and 90s.
You talk about Shaq and all those guys as if they're still playing, and if we don't draft Robert Upshaw, Shaq's going to be dunking all over us come late October.
It's definitely good to have a Perk type on the team though, but not in the starting lineup. Only for situational use that might only come up every 3-4 games or so.
Somebody upthread made a good point about KO thriving off the bench, and at the end of games against tired centers. Perhaps like IT4 at point guard, KO might be able to play more minutes, more effectively, with somebody bigger starting the game and setting a defensive tone. So maybe this team needs an Avery Bradley type center. And maybe Amir or Zeller can play that role well, while also maximizing KO's minutes and effectiveness. Maybe KO could even be the most effective center on the team, while not starting, but almost always finishing the games. Just like IT4 is clearly better than Bradley, and a Bradley-like defensive guard like Bradley is much easier to find than a superb microwave scorer like IT4.
At the same time, the starting offense was worse than the starting defense last year.
But I suppose IT4 as well as KO might very well continue to come off the bench this year, after long deliberation by Brad and Danny.
Celtics bench as the best or second best bench in the NBA after the All Star Break last year.
That's a playoff team trait if ever there was one. Dominant bench and superior depth.
rambone- Posts : 1057
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Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
[quote="dboss"][quote="rambone"]
Your case implies that a team cannot win without a good rebounder and rim protector at center.
You move the goal posts, from 'can KO be an effective center?' to "can KO be an effective rebounder and rim protector?'
If you move the goal posts like that, you can conclude that Larry Bird wasn't a good small forward, because 'I doubt Bird will ever be a high flier like Scottie Pippen, therefore Bird cannot play SF'.
Implied in such a statement would be that only a high flier can be an effective SF.
If you're going to declare that a 3 point shooting, passing, and dribbling center can never be an effective center, you might as well present your case about how blocked shots are worth more than 3 pointers, and how rebounding by a PF or SF or SG or PG is crap, because only a rebound by a center is valuable.
So go ahead and make your case about why a team cannot succeed getting their shot blocking and rebounding from their PF, and a lot more offense out of their center.
Because it's a ridiculous premise.
Just like James Harden is forgiven for his lousy defense. You take the good with the bad, and you don't expect two way dominance from every single player, at every single position.
Our offense is extremely efficient with KO on the court. You don't have to score like James Harden to make a huge impact offensively. And if a player is making a huge impact on offense, you cut them a little slack on defense, especially if they're busting their butt.
You take the good with the bad, and with Bradley, Smart, Rozier, Crowder, Amir, and possibly Mickey playing top notch defense at every other position on the court, there's suddenly a lot less occasions to b1tch about Olynyk not being the defensive center of your dreams.
dboss wrote:
We need a center that can rebound and defend the rim but KO cannot do that for us. It really does not matter how much you like him or not like him. Either he can do the job or he cannot do the job and we have seen nothing to suggest that he will be a good rebounder and rim protector.
I rest my case.
dboss
Your case implies that a team cannot win without a good rebounder and rim protector at center.
You move the goal posts, from 'can KO be an effective center?' to "can KO be an effective rebounder and rim protector?'
If you move the goal posts like that, you can conclude that Larry Bird wasn't a good small forward, because 'I doubt Bird will ever be a high flier like Scottie Pippen, therefore Bird cannot play SF'.
Implied in such a statement would be that only a high flier can be an effective SF.
If you're going to declare that a 3 point shooting, passing, and dribbling center can never be an effective center, you might as well present your case about how blocked shots are worth more than 3 pointers, and how rebounding by a PF or SF or SG or PG is crap, because only a rebound by a center is valuable.
So go ahead and make your case about why a team cannot succeed getting their shot blocking and rebounding from their PF, and a lot more offense out of their center.
Because it's a ridiculous premise.
Just like James Harden is forgiven for his lousy defense. You take the good with the bad, and you don't expect two way dominance from every single player, at every single position.
Our offense is extremely efficient with KO on the court. You don't have to score like James Harden to make a huge impact offensively. And if a player is making a huge impact on offense, you cut them a little slack on defense, especially if they're busting their butt.
You take the good with the bad, and with Bradley, Smart, Rozier, Crowder, Amir, and possibly Mickey playing top notch defense at every other position on the court, there's suddenly a lot less occasions to b1tch about Olynyk not being the defensive center of your dreams.
rambone- Posts : 1057
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Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
With respect to zone defense and some changes in the style of play.
Teams have always played zone defenses in the NBA when they could get away with it. While zone defense may limit the impact of a low post scorer, the 3 point shot opens things up for more post scoring and drives to the hoop.
I put an * beside the GS win because Irving and Love were not able to play. GS does not play a new style of basketball. The Celtics invented up-tempo small ball over 50 years ago. The pendulum swings back and forth. Give me a center that can score in the post and a PG that can get him the ball and a coach that know how to use his players.
If Centers are no longer important why does every team need at least two of them? Size matters.
dboss
Teams have always played zone defenses in the NBA when they could get away with it. While zone defense may limit the impact of a low post scorer, the 3 point shot opens things up for more post scoring and drives to the hoop.
I put an * beside the GS win because Irving and Love were not able to play. GS does not play a new style of basketball. The Celtics invented up-tempo small ball over 50 years ago. The pendulum swings back and forth. Give me a center that can score in the post and a PG that can get him the ball and a coach that know how to use his players.
If Centers are no longer important why does every team need at least two of them? Size matters.
dboss
dboss- Posts : 19220
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Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
there you go shifting the goal posts again.
If Centers are no longer important why does every team need at least two of them? Size matters.
rambone- Posts : 1057
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Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
rambone wrote:dboss wrote:rambone wrote:dboss wrote:
We need a center that can rebound and defend the rim but KO cannot do that for us. It really does not matter how much you like him or not like him. Either he can do the job or he cannot do the job and we have seen nothing to suggest that he will be a good rebounder and rim protector.
I rest my case.
dboss
Your case implies that a team cannot win without a good rebounder and rim protector at center.
You move the goal posts, from 'can KO be an effective center?' to "can KO be an effective rebounder and rim protector?'
If you move the goal posts like that, you can conclude that Larry Bird wasn't a good small forward, because 'I doubt Bird will ever be a high flier like Scottie Pippen, therefore Bird cannot play SF'.
Implied in such a statement would be that only a high flier can be an effective SF.
If you're going to declare that a 3 point shooting, passing, and dribbling center can never be an effective center, you might as well present your case about how blocked shots are worth more than 3 pointers, and how rebounding by a PF or SF or SG or PG is crap, because only a rebound by a center is valuable.
So go ahead and make your case about why a team cannot succeed getting their shot blocking and rebounding from their PF, and a lot more offense out of their center.
Because it's a ridiculous premise.
Just like James Harden is forgiven for his lousy defense. You take the good with the bad, and you don't expect two way dominance from every single player, at every single position.
Our offense is extremely efficient with KO on the court. You don't have to score like James Harden to make a huge impact offensively. And if a player is making a huge impact on offense, you cut them a little slack on defense, especially if they're busting their butt.
You take the good with the bad, and with Bradley, Smart, Rozier, Crowder, Amir, and possibly Mickey playing top notch defense at every other position on the court, there's suddenly a lot less occasions to b1tch about Olynyk not being the defensive center of your dreams.
As they said in Stars Wars "Stay on Target"
I never moved the goal post. My statements about KO are well documented. He does not possess the skills and physical attributes to play center in the NBA. He looks more like a specialty rotation player. There is nothing wrong with that. But don't try to make him more than what he is. It really does not matter to me if he is a center or a PF or the ball boy. If you cannot defend you position that you are playing you are a bum on defense. Kelly is a bum on defense. That is the point and his 10 or so PPG do not make up for his defensive deficiencies and inability to bang the boards.
How can you compare Harden or any other high end scorer that is weak on defense to Kelly? Kelly is not a high end offensive player and he will never be a high end offensive player but he will always be a liability on the defensive end and that my friend is the issue.
If you have an argument to make about SF lets talk about it.
I never made any statements about what is needed to win. PF can be the best rebounder and shot blocker on a team.
We are not talking about a PF here we are talking about a 7 foot center that cannot rebound blocks shots or play defense and we are debating on whether he should be a starter or for that matter be the primary BU at the center position. Lee for example is not known to be a very good defender but he can play in the post. He can score in the post and he can rebound the basketball. He is not a center yet he is still a better center than KO.
Kelly can score some but he is by no means a really good offensive player and he is unlikely to become one because he cannot score in the post even given his 7 foot frame. And because he cannot play defense do you think coach Stevens is going to play him a lot of minutes when you have other guys on the team that play both defense and offense?
This team is loaded with guys that are very likely to take minutes away from KO this year.
There are no post defensive stoppers on this team so all the players that you mention will not be able to cover for Kelly getting abused on a regular basis.
I agree that you take the good with the bad. There is no argument there. I just know Kelly is not a very good center or PF for that matter. I can except that fact and still appreciate what he can do well. Can you?
dboss
dboss- Posts : 19220
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Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
rambone wrote:there you go shifting the goal posts again.If Centers are no longer important why does every team need at least two of them? Size matters.
I decided to talk about another subject.
What is with this goal post fixation you are struggling with?
If you do not believe that every team needs a starting center and a back up center that is your opinion but I doubt most basketball fans would agree. There is no such thing as position-less basketball unless you think Marcus Smart should play PF or KO should be the point guard or Tyler Zeller would work out well on the wing. All Teams need centers.
dboss
dboss- Posts : 19220
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Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
Brad Stevens wrote:
Several times, Stevens stressed he has not determined lineups yet. The coach noted he would like to figure things out "sooner rather than later," but said he would not have a decision by Sept. 29 when the team holds an intrasquad scrimmage. Ainge added that while last year some guys were locked into starting spots, "I think this year it's wide open."
"It's going to be not only who plays best, it's going to be who fits best, who makes other people better," Stevens said. "If you can be a guy that when you play with Isaiah spreads the floor and lifts his game, that's a big impactful thing. If you can be a guy when you play with some of our post guys that has to be guarded on the perimeter or is a great cutter, that's a big impactful thing. So we'll figure all that out. Obviously, this is what I think about every single minute of every single day. So I'm as anxious as anybody to see how it separates itself."
http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2015/09/the_boston_celtics_have_not_ch.html
rambone- Posts : 1057
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Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
All teams need high level rim protection and physical defensive play from the center spot or center and power forward spots to win and the blueprint started with us and Bill Russell. There was also Wilt, then Reed, Cowens and Silas, Big E and Unseld....all the way to KG and Perk, Tyson Chandler, Bynum and Gasol, Tim Duncan. You want to contend/win it all, you need a defensive presence that can anchor a defense, that is a fact. The only 2 teams I've seen win it all without an elite/dominant defensive big are the Jordan/Pippen Bulls and the Lebron/Wade Heat and we don't have those kind of players on our roster presently.
It is so obvious besides these +/minus stats that you keep hammering that mean nothing, that KO is ill equipped to play PF or C at a level necessary to carry or lead this team, because he painfully doesn't have the defensive ability to overcome his little spurts of offense. He cannot post up or score enough from in close to the basket and his outside stroke is not consistent enough to earn him enough minutes to overcome his turnstile defense.
It is so obvious besides these +/minus stats that you keep hammering that mean nothing, that KO is ill equipped to play PF or C at a level necessary to carry or lead this team, because he painfully doesn't have the defensive ability to overcome his little spurts of offense. He cannot post up or score enough from in close to the basket and his outside stroke is not consistent enough to earn him enough minutes to overcome his turnstile defense.
cowens/oldschool- Posts : 27706
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Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
"You say it's all about wins, but did you know that KO led the Celtics in +/- as a rookie, and then again as a sophomore?" - Rambone
I never said any such thing- I said "if its all about wins.."
"You say it's all about wins, but you want to trade off our young, two-time reigning +/- king for yet another (unneeded) first round pick?"
A- see my above statement,
B- and to expound on my above statement, I said "I'm wondering" it was all a bit of wondering out loud.. that's all..
C- Never said I want to trade K/o for another unneeded first round pick, Because:
C1- I don't feel future first round picks are uneeded
D2- the proposal I did suggest was him + some of the very many second round picks picks we owe- in exchange for not just a first pick but a first, an expiring contract of a bust type player (who in my line of thinking could have been bought out) and the right to swap another first round pick- I'd suggest this type of deal because I actually value K/O as a player and the deal wouldn't be just because I want to get rid of him
D3- it wasn't a "want" it would be a willingness
D- and if it was really about wins than yes, I'd be very much open to trading K/O which I think would open up more playing time for Lee and Johnson both of whom I feel are better suited this year to help us win the game than K/O is.
"You say it's about wins, but is it really about wingspan measurements?" - Rambone
A- No, I never said any such thing, I said.. well, we've already gone here- see above..
B- Ive never mentioned anyone's wingspan.. but since wings have been mentioned, i'm now thinking about heading over to Hooters for some. Thanx for the idea- But the fact about wingspans is I've prollly never mentioned any NBA players wingspan on this site ever. So the answer to your question would be "Nope, its about the wins If I got to choose between the two..."
"Do you really think that KO has already peaked?" - Rambone
I never said he has or hasn't. Have not discussed it. I did say "I think we have an idea of what he is" But to answer the question No. I don't think he has, I think he will continue to improve, but his improvements wont change the type of player he is. I actually have high expectations for him down the road though.
"Do you not think it matters that he's gained more muscle this summer? He won't get any more consistent than he was in his second season?" - Rambone
Sure it matters, I'm glad he did.. see my above comments. As for being more consistent, see my previous comments about seeing my above comments.
"Why are you guys so stubborn in wanting to write Olynyk off already, when his body is still obviously developing?" - Rambone
I've never written off K/O. See my above statements about seeing my above statements about... well you get the idea...
"And why does good 3 point shooting from the center position not impress you guys at all?" - Rambone
Oh, it does, and i'm sure if I was a coach of a team with a 7'0 guy could shoot them i'd allow him to do it once a season or so, otherwise his arse better be where it belongs (in my opionion) which is a hell of a lot closer to the rim than out in 3 pt land.
"Why does great ball handling ability and passing ability not impress you, unless it comes from a position other than center?"- Rambone
Oh it does, it certainly does. Russels Passes to Cooz were of great benefit to the team. watch them video's of the 86 teama nd Waltons passes. Very impressive. Who ever said I wasn't impressed?
"I swear some of you guys care more about blocks per game and wingspan than victories." - Rambone
That's certainly not true of me.
"Winning matters most, you guys say, and yet when the Celtics dramatically improve from a 33% winning team in the first half of the season, to a 66% winning team in the second half, some of you guys aren't even impressed, and go so far as to call it a fluke. As if IT4 isn't locked into a super-cheap contract, and as if all our young players, including KO, aren't getting better this summer, and next summer too." -rambone
A- again, who says I was not impressed? Hell I was downright shocked.
B- I never once called it a fluke. not once. the idea never crossed my mind. To suggest otherwise would be dishonest of whoever wants to claim otherwise.
"When you only want to win in a very specific way, with a shot blocking and rebounding center like Robert Upshaw or Andre Drummond, you might want to ask yourselves if winning is really the most important thing to you, or if shot blocking is the most important thing, and winning doesn't matter unless it includes a shot blocking center." - rambone
The only way I want to win is by having more points at the end of the game than the other poor dumb b@stards and not having had to cheat to do so.
"..yet you guys call it a fluke. And then you claim winning is the most important thing to you. - rambone
A- see above statement on "fluke"
B- winning isn't THE most important thing to me, but we aint here to talk about makin love so lets go on...
"And yet still, Still! you cling to the outdated concept that only a rim protecting center can win a championship. And unless KO's wingspan suddenly grows, you've already seen enough of him, want to ship him out on the first train, and have already seen enough of him and the elite offensive efficiency that results just about every single time he's on the basketball court." - rambone
A- uh, no I don't cling to any such concept.
B- I never said I wanted to ship him put, I'd said under certain circumstances and for what I thought would be a nice price that I'd be willing.
"And obviously, Obviously! he's still getting better, more consistent, more confident, and physically stronger." - Rambone
Oh good, finely a point we are on the same page about!
BTW... as soon as I wrote it, I relized I already had supper cooking and so going to Hooter is out. I left it in cuz I thought it was funny at the moment. Also in reading my first pst I realized I had a typo in there this is it- "..and if it's all about wins I the Lee and Johnson will provide us.." it should have read "and if it's all about wins then I think Lee and Johnson will provide us..."
my bad.
I never said any such thing- I said "if its all about wins.."
"You say it's all about wins, but you want to trade off our young, two-time reigning +/- king for yet another (unneeded) first round pick?"
A- see my above statement,
B- and to expound on my above statement, I said "I'm wondering" it was all a bit of wondering out loud.. that's all..
C- Never said I want to trade K/o for another unneeded first round pick, Because:
C1- I don't feel future first round picks are uneeded
D2- the proposal I did suggest was him + some of the very many second round picks picks we owe- in exchange for not just a first pick but a first, an expiring contract of a bust type player (who in my line of thinking could have been bought out) and the right to swap another first round pick- I'd suggest this type of deal because I actually value K/O as a player and the deal wouldn't be just because I want to get rid of him
D3- it wasn't a "want" it would be a willingness
D- and if it was really about wins than yes, I'd be very much open to trading K/O which I think would open up more playing time for Lee and Johnson both of whom I feel are better suited this year to help us win the game than K/O is.
"You say it's about wins, but is it really about wingspan measurements?" - Rambone
A- No, I never said any such thing, I said.. well, we've already gone here- see above..
B- Ive never mentioned anyone's wingspan.. but since wings have been mentioned, i'm now thinking about heading over to Hooters for some. Thanx for the idea- But the fact about wingspans is I've prollly never mentioned any NBA players wingspan on this site ever. So the answer to your question would be "Nope, its about the wins If I got to choose between the two..."
"Do you really think that KO has already peaked?" - Rambone
I never said he has or hasn't. Have not discussed it. I did say "I think we have an idea of what he is" But to answer the question No. I don't think he has, I think he will continue to improve, but his improvements wont change the type of player he is. I actually have high expectations for him down the road though.
"Do you not think it matters that he's gained more muscle this summer? He won't get any more consistent than he was in his second season?" - Rambone
Sure it matters, I'm glad he did.. see my above comments. As for being more consistent, see my previous comments about seeing my above comments.
"Why are you guys so stubborn in wanting to write Olynyk off already, when his body is still obviously developing?" - Rambone
I've never written off K/O. See my above statements about seeing my above statements about... well you get the idea...
"And why does good 3 point shooting from the center position not impress you guys at all?" - Rambone
Oh, it does, and i'm sure if I was a coach of a team with a 7'0 guy could shoot them i'd allow him to do it once a season or so, otherwise his arse better be where it belongs (in my opionion) which is a hell of a lot closer to the rim than out in 3 pt land.
"Why does great ball handling ability and passing ability not impress you, unless it comes from a position other than center?"- Rambone
Oh it does, it certainly does. Russels Passes to Cooz were of great benefit to the team. watch them video's of the 86 teama nd Waltons passes. Very impressive. Who ever said I wasn't impressed?
"I swear some of you guys care more about blocks per game and wingspan than victories." - Rambone
That's certainly not true of me.
"Winning matters most, you guys say, and yet when the Celtics dramatically improve from a 33% winning team in the first half of the season, to a 66% winning team in the second half, some of you guys aren't even impressed, and go so far as to call it a fluke. As if IT4 isn't locked into a super-cheap contract, and as if all our young players, including KO, aren't getting better this summer, and next summer too." -rambone
A- again, who says I was not impressed? Hell I was downright shocked.
B- I never once called it a fluke. not once. the idea never crossed my mind. To suggest otherwise would be dishonest of whoever wants to claim otherwise.
"When you only want to win in a very specific way, with a shot blocking and rebounding center like Robert Upshaw or Andre Drummond, you might want to ask yourselves if winning is really the most important thing to you, or if shot blocking is the most important thing, and winning doesn't matter unless it includes a shot blocking center." - rambone
The only way I want to win is by having more points at the end of the game than the other poor dumb b@stards and not having had to cheat to do so.
"..yet you guys call it a fluke. And then you claim winning is the most important thing to you. - rambone
A- see above statement on "fluke"
B- winning isn't THE most important thing to me, but we aint here to talk about makin love so lets go on...
"And yet still, Still! you cling to the outdated concept that only a rim protecting center can win a championship. And unless KO's wingspan suddenly grows, you've already seen enough of him, want to ship him out on the first train, and have already seen enough of him and the elite offensive efficiency that results just about every single time he's on the basketball court." - rambone
A- uh, no I don't cling to any such concept.
B- I never said I wanted to ship him put, I'd said under certain circumstances and for what I thought would be a nice price that I'd be willing.
"And obviously, Obviously! he's still getting better, more consistent, more confident, and physically stronger." - Rambone
Oh good, finely a point we are on the same page about!
BTW... as soon as I wrote it, I relized I already had supper cooking and so going to Hooter is out. I left it in cuz I thought it was funny at the moment. Also in reading my first pst I realized I had a typo in there this is it- "..and if it's all about wins I the Lee and Johnson will provide us.." it should have read "and if it's all about wins then I think Lee and Johnson will provide us..."
my bad.
Matty- Posts : 4562
Join date : 2009-10-18
Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
Merrily we go around, go around, go around!
Come on Guys, you just have different concepts considering the center position and I think it's possible that both diametrically opposing concepts have validity.
However the question of whether Olynyk (and Rambone's concept) are good for THIS team will be answered at the end of the season.
I for one, am looking forward to this year with more anticipation and optimism than at any time since the KG and Allen joined the team. Which doesn't mean that I expect the same results - just that the direction is decisively moving upwards.
Berlin-T
Come on Guys, you just have different concepts considering the center position and I think it's possible that both diametrically opposing concepts have validity.
However the question of whether Olynyk (and Rambone's concept) are good for THIS team will be answered at the end of the season.
I for one, am looking forward to this year with more anticipation and optimism than at any time since the KG and Allen joined the team. Which doesn't mean that I expect the same results - just that the direction is decisively moving upwards.
Berlin-T
Berlin-T- Posts : 5151
Join date : 2010-02-01
Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
rambone wrote:Matty wrote:Cow I agree about K.O. and his liabilities and with the addition of Lee and johnson i'm wondering if mr. The Rex Arms wouldn't best serve us by being traded- him and 8000 of our second rounders for a similar sized expiring bust type player for a future first and the right for us to swap an additional first.
I think we have an idea of what he is, we got plenty of others to develop and if it's all about wins I the Lee and Johnson will provide us with more than our favorite canadian
You say it's all about wins, but did you know that KO led the Celtics in +/- as a rookie, and then again as a sophomore? You say it's all about wins, but you want to trade off our young, two-time reigning +/- king for yet another (unneeded) first round pick?
You say it's about wins, but is it really about wingspan measurements?
KO was our starting center on opening night each of the last two years. This was KO's opening night performance last year against KG
Do you really think that KO has already peaked? Do you not think it matters that he's gained more muscle this summer? He won't get any more consistent than he was in his second season?
KO is a year younger than Zeller, and was a late-bloomer physically compared to Zeller. If you paid attention to the FIBA games this summer, it was clear that KO was stronger than he was last year, which was stronger than he was as a rookie. Two years ago Zeller wasn't strong enough to get extended minutes on a bad Cleveland team, but he got a little stronger that summer and emerged as a solid starting center for us.
Why are you guys so stubborn in wanting to write Olynyk off already, when his body is still obviously developing?
And why does good 3 point shooting from the center position not impress you guys at all? Why does great ball handling ability and passing ability not impress you, unless it comes from a position other than center?
I swear some of you guys care more about blocks per game and wingspan than victories.
Winning matters most, you guys say, and yet when the Celtics dramatically improve from a 33% winning team in the first half of the season, to a 66% winning team in the second half, some of you guys aren't even impressed, and go so far as to call it a fluke. As if IT4 isn't locked into a super-cheap contract, and as if all our young players, including KO, aren't getting better this summer, and next summer too.
When you only want to win in a very specific way, with a shot blocking and rebounding center like Robert Upshaw or Andre Drummond, you might want to ask yourselves if winning is really the most important thing to you, or if shot blocking is the most important thing, and winning doesn't matter unless it includes a shot blocking center.
The team dramatically improved last year, right in the middle of the season no less, and yet you guys call it a fluke. And then you claim winning is the most important thing to you.
And having the NCAA shot blocking leader in Mickey doesn't even matter, because he's a shot-blocking monster from the PF position, unlike the undrafted Robert Upshaw, superstar.
Cowens, what is more important to you, winning or having a shot blocking center? Because you already showed a low appreciation for winning, and called it a fluke, but Robert Freaking Upshaw gets you way more excited than winning.
The Warriors just won a championship by playing Draymond Green at center most of the time, after the Spurs and Heat won the last 3 titles with skilled, non-shot blocking centers.
And yet still, Still! you cling to the outdated concept that only a rim protecting center can win a championship. And unless KO's wingspan suddenly grows, you've already seen enough of him, want to ship him out on the first train, and have already seen enough of him and the elite offensive efficiency that results just about every single time he's on the basketball court.
And obviously, Obviously! he's still getting better, more consistent, more confident, and physically stronger.
Elite offensive center with improving strength and toughness? Not good enough for you guys. Not even with an elite shot blocker at PF, or at least Amir Johnson rather than Brandon Bass.
Maybe KO (and Mickey) ride the pine all year, but don't be surprised if KO starts at center on opening night for the third year in a row, and don't be surprised if he yet again leads the Celtics in +/- like he has his entire career so far.
And don't be surprised when the Celtics yet again blow expectations away, and inch closer to Banner 18, while Andre Drummond, and most other stone-hands "rim protectors" are still losing more than they're winning, looking like middle school kids offensively and destroying offensive efficiency. Not to mention, sitting on the bench in the fourth quarter because they can barely hit the rim on their free throws.
elite offensive center with improving strength and toughness? my eye test doesn't see any elite offensive center, nor do KO's stats back that up, since when is 10.4 ppg considered elite? Avery Bradley averages more is he considered elite too? or you don't like his hair as much as Kelly's, so hes not elite?
you and I have different versions of what we want going forward at the center position, you seem to be the only person with a fixation on KO that thinks hes our answer at the center position, all other fans, board members and national pundits seem to think we NEED an upgrade at the position, you know like a real live body that can actually defend and rebound, but what do I know?. Going by my eye test with no stats, can he score or post up down low consistently? no. can he bang and rebound? no. can he post defend? no. can he defend the pick@roll ? no. If you want to ignore these facets of the game in the center of your choice....thats fine, I still hope we can get a center with these attributes to a stronger degree at some point.
cowens/oldschool- Posts : 27706
Join date : 2009-10-18
Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
I really like KO's hair does anybody know what kind of shampoo he uses?
cowens/oldschool- Posts : 27706
Join date : 2009-10-18
Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
rambone wrote:Real plus-minus isn't a perfect stat, but it's a much better stat than simple blocks or rebounds in the box score.
2014-15 Real Plus-Minus - Centers
RK NAME TEAM GP MPG ORPM DRPM RPM WAR
1 DeMarcus Cousins SAC 59 34.1 1.41 4.71 6.12 10.86
2 Zaza Pachulia MIL 73 23.7 1.38 3.42 4.80 7.66
3 Tyson Chandler DAL 75 30.5 1.04 3.54 4.58 9.99
4 DeAndre Jordan LAC 82 34.4 2.03 2.43 4.46 12.08
5 Marc Gasol MEM 81 33.2 1.70 1.91 3.61 9.68
6 Kelly Olynyk BOS 64 22.3 1.79 1.71 3.50 5.27
7 Andrew Bogut GS 67 23.6 -1.81 4.97 3.16 5.58
8 Timofey Mozgov CLE/DEN 81 25.3 -0.57 3.43 2.86 6.68
9 Greg Monroe DET 69 31.0 0.37 2.28 2.65 6.49
10 Marcin Gortat WSH 82 29.9 -0.10 2.56 2.46 7.28
11 Jusuf Nurkic DEN 62 17.8 -1.69 4.02 2.33 3.33
12 Al Horford ATL 76 30.5 0.32 1.82 2.14 6.34
13 Rudy Gobert UTAH 82 26.3 -1.66 3.63 1.97 5.54
14 Dwight Howard HOU 41 29.8 -0.12 2.08 1.96 3.32
15 Joakim Noah CHI 67 30.6 -1.12 2.21 1.09 4.33
16 Tristan Thompson CLE 82 26.8 1.34 -0.48 0.86 4.25
17 Joel Anthony DET 49 8.3 -1.82 2.68 0.86 0.80
18 Kosta Koufos MEM 81 16.6 -2.56 3.30 0.74 2.56
19 Andre Drummond DET 82 30.5 -0.07 0.81 0.74 4.75
20 Hassan Whiteside MIA 48 23.8 -0.96 1.64 0.68 2.10
21 Chris Bosh MIA 44 35.4 0.72 -0.04 0.68 2.82
22 Tyler Zeller BOS 82 21.1 -0.78 1.36 0.58 3.25
23 Nikola Pekovic MIN 31 26.3 -0.43 0.99 0.56 1.49
24 Robin Lopez POR 59 27.8 -1.21 1.74 0.53 2.94
25 Boris Diaw SA 81 24.5 -0.20 0.26 0.06 2.93
26 Roy Hibbert IND 76 25.3 -2.44 2.43 -0.01 2.73
27 Alexis Ajinca NO 68 14.1 -1.01 0.90 -0.11 1.27
28 Meyers Leonard POR 55 15.4 -1.88 1.71 -0.17 1.16
29 Chuck Hayes TOR 29 8.8 -0.33 0.08 -0.25 0.33
30 Nazr Mohammed CHI 23 5.6 -0.89 0.34 -0.55 0.14
31 Dewayne Dedmon ORL 59 14.3 -2.79 2.20 -0.59 0.92
32 Brook Lopez BKN 72 29.2 -0.76 0.16 -0.60 2.22
33 Jonas Valanciunas TOR 80 26.2 -1.71 1.03 -0.68 2.17
34 Alex Len PHX 69 22.0 -2.90 2.16 -0.74 1.59
35 Gorgui Dieng MIN 73 30.0 -1.42 0.68 -0.74 2.20
36 Ian Mahinmi IND 61 18.8 -3.22 2.47 -0.75 1.13
37 Al Jefferson CHA 65 30.6 -1.47 0.56 -0.91 1.75
38 Robert Sacre LAL 67 16.9 -2.61 1.59 -1.02 0.93
39 Reggie Evans SAC 47 16.3 -1.07 -0.09 -1.16 0.55
40 Steven Adams OKC 70 25.3 -2.72 1.54 -1.18 1.30
2014-15 Real Plus-Minus - Centers
RK NAME TEAM GP MPG ORPM DRPM RPM WAR
41 Omer Asik NO 76 26.1 -3.01 1.83 -1.18 1.41
42 Ryan Hollins SAC 46 9.6 -1.98 0.77 -1.21 0.32
43 Lucas Nogueira TOR 6 3.8 -0.92 -0.35 -1.27 0.02
44 Marreese Speights GS 76 15.9 0.02 -1.47 -1.45 0.72
45 Clint Capela HOU 12 7.5 -1.97 0.49 -1.48 0.05
46 Nerlens Noel PHI 75 30.8 -4.85 3.35 -1.50 1.24
47 Jeff Withey NO 37 7.0 -0.83 -0.70 -1.53 0.13
48 Festus Ezeli GS 46 11.0 -2.14 0.57 -1.57 0.25
49 Miles Plumlee MIL/PHX 73 16.4 -2.01 0.28 -1.73 0.46
50 Nikola Vucevic ORL 74 34.2 -1.48 -0.37 -1.85 0.79
51 Greg Stiemsma TOR 17 3.9 -1.24 -0.65 -1.89 0.02
52 Tarik Black HOU/LAL 63 19.0 -1.67 -0.28 -1.95 0.29
53 Enes Kanter OKC/UTAH 75 28.5 1.15 -3.87 -2.72 -0.49
54 Anderson Varejao CLE 26 24.5 -2.23 -0.57 -2.80 -0.18
55 John Henson MIL 67 18.3 -4.13 1.32 -2.81 -0.35
56 Cole Aldrich NY 61 16.0 -4.78 1.51 -3.27 -0.54
57 JaVale McGee DEN/PHI 23 11.1 -1.47 -1.80 -3.27 -0.15
58 Jerome Jordan BKN 44 8.7 -2.65 -0.65 -3.30 -0.22
59 Samuel Dalembert NY 32 17.0 -4.76 1.40 -3.36 -0.32
60 Chris Kaman POR 74 18.9 -2.56 -1.25 -3.81 -1.26
61 Henry Sims PHI 73 19.2 -4.18 0.28 -3.90 -1.37
62 Kendrick Perkins CLE/OKC 68 16.9 -4.97 1.06 -3.91 -1.12
63 Matt Bonner SA 72 13.0 -1.45 -2.52 -3.97 -0.94
64 DeJuan Blair WSH 29 6.2 -2.96 -1.30 -4.26 -0.21
65 Jordan Hill LAL 70 26.8 -2.95 -1.42 -4.37 -2.34
66 Andrea Bargnani NY 29 27.1 -1.72 -3.57 -5.29 -1.40
Glossary
GP: Games Played
MPG: Minutes Per Game
ORPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team offensive performance, measured in points scored per 100 offensive possessions
DRPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team defensive performance, measured in points allowed per 100 defensive possessions
RPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors
WAR: The estimated number of team wins attributable to each player, based on RPM
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/RPM/position/9
so Mozgov, Monroe and Gortat have higher averages than Dwight Howard and Joakim Noah? this must be really accurate since your such an stat expert right? so those 3 must be better players than Howard and Noah right? wonder which group has more all star appearances or individual awards?
Does anyone see how stats can be easily misinterpreted or used to make whichever point one wants to make, but at the end mean NOTHING? when in this case, with my comparisons between Mozgov, Monroe and Gortat vs Howard and Noah, that number doesn't really prove anything to who is the better player?
cowens/oldschool- Posts : 27706
Join date : 2009-10-18
Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
WOW Kelly even has better numbers than Howard and Noah, lets get Danny to bring that up to validate a trade for either player for KO, the other GM would be a total fool to pass that up since Kellys numbers are so much higher right? and in todays NBA , our eyes don't matter right? its all about the analytics right?
cowens/oldschool- Posts : 27706
Join date : 2009-10-18
Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
As a rookie Olynyk had the 9th highest offensive real plus minus among ALL NBA centers who played more than 17 games.
As a sophomore, KO had the second highest offensive real plus minus among all NBA centers.
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/ORPM/position/9
How is Olynyk already an elite offensive center?
Hint: points per game, and assists per game can be highly misleading, and disguise the fact that a good scorer or assist padder might not actually be making the offense better.
Hint #2: A center who can draw the opposing center out of the paint makes the other team's defense worse, thus making his own team's offense better. And you won't find that in the box score, other than the final score.
It's not the easiest concept to grasp, especially since we're used to Rondo padding his assists, and blaming anemic offense on anybody but him.
Tons of teams are mediocre at best because their stud defensive center makes their team way worse on offense. But just like how fans never blamed Rondo for our stagnant, ineffective offense, a lot of fans have a hard time accepting that the offensive "impact" of a guy like Drummond negates most or all of his supposed defensive greatness.
I'm all done trying to teach concepts more complicated than points per game or blocks per game or rebounds per game.
As a sophomore, KO had the second highest offensive real plus minus among all NBA centers.
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/ORPM/position/9
How is Olynyk already an elite offensive center?
Hint: points per game, and assists per game can be highly misleading, and disguise the fact that a good scorer or assist padder might not actually be making the offense better.
Hint #2: A center who can draw the opposing center out of the paint makes the other team's defense worse, thus making his own team's offense better. And you won't find that in the box score, other than the final score.
It's not the easiest concept to grasp, especially since we're used to Rondo padding his assists, and blaming anemic offense on anybody but him.
Tons of teams are mediocre at best because their stud defensive center makes their team way worse on offense. But just like how fans never blamed Rondo for our stagnant, ineffective offense, a lot of fans have a hard time accepting that the offensive "impact" of a guy like Drummond negates most or all of his supposed defensive greatness.
I'm all done trying to teach concepts more complicated than points per game or blocks per game or rebounds per game.
rambone- Posts : 1057
Join date : 2015-05-04
Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
cowens/oldschool wrote:rambone wrote:Real plus-minus isn't a perfect stat, but it's a much better stat than simple blocks or rebounds in the box score.
2014-15 Real Plus-Minus - Centers
RK NAME TEAM GP MPG ORPM DRPM RPM WAR
1 DeMarcus Cousins SAC 59 34.1 1.41 4.71 6.12 10.86
2 Zaza Pachulia MIL 73 23.7 1.38 3.42 4.80 7.66
3 Tyson Chandler DAL 75 30.5 1.04 3.54 4.58 9.99
4 DeAndre Jordan LAC 82 34.4 2.03 2.43 4.46 12.08
5 Marc Gasol MEM 81 33.2 1.70 1.91 3.61 9.68
6 Kelly Olynyk BOS 64 22.3 1.79 1.71 3.50 5.27
7 Andrew Bogut GS 67 23.6 -1.81 4.97 3.16 5.58
8 Timofey Mozgov CLE/DEN 81 25.3 -0.57 3.43 2.86 6.68
9 Greg Monroe DET 69 31.0 0.37 2.28 2.65 6.49
10 Marcin Gortat WSH 82 29.9 -0.10 2.56 2.46 7.28
11 Jusuf Nurkic DEN 62 17.8 -1.69 4.02 2.33 3.33
12 Al Horford ATL 76 30.5 0.32 1.82 2.14 6.34
13 Rudy Gobert UTAH 82 26.3 -1.66 3.63 1.97 5.54
14 Dwight Howard HOU 41 29.8 -0.12 2.08 1.96 3.32
15 Joakim Noah CHI 67 30.6 -1.12 2.21 1.09 4.33
16 Tristan Thompson CLE 82 26.8 1.34 -0.48 0.86 4.25
17 Joel Anthony DET 49 8.3 -1.82 2.68 0.86 0.80
18 Kosta Koufos MEM 81 16.6 -2.56 3.30 0.74 2.56
19 Andre Drummond DET 82 30.5 -0.07 0.81 0.74 4.75
20 Hassan Whiteside MIA 48 23.8 -0.96 1.64 0.68 2.10
21 Chris Bosh MIA 44 35.4 0.72 -0.04 0.68 2.82
22 Tyler Zeller BOS 82 21.1 -0.78 1.36 0.58 3.25
23 Nikola Pekovic MIN 31 26.3 -0.43 0.99 0.56 1.49
24 Robin Lopez POR 59 27.8 -1.21 1.74 0.53 2.94
25 Boris Diaw SA 81 24.5 -0.20 0.26 0.06 2.93
26 Roy Hibbert IND 76 25.3 -2.44 2.43 -0.01 2.73
27 Alexis Ajinca NO 68 14.1 -1.01 0.90 -0.11 1.27
28 Meyers Leonard POR 55 15.4 -1.88 1.71 -0.17 1.16
29 Chuck Hayes TOR 29 8.8 -0.33 0.08 -0.25 0.33
30 Nazr Mohammed CHI 23 5.6 -0.89 0.34 -0.55 0.14
31 Dewayne Dedmon ORL 59 14.3 -2.79 2.20 -0.59 0.92
32 Brook Lopez BKN 72 29.2 -0.76 0.16 -0.60 2.22
33 Jonas Valanciunas TOR 80 26.2 -1.71 1.03 -0.68 2.17
34 Alex Len PHX 69 22.0 -2.90 2.16 -0.74 1.59
35 Gorgui Dieng MIN 73 30.0 -1.42 0.68 -0.74 2.20
36 Ian Mahinmi IND 61 18.8 -3.22 2.47 -0.75 1.13
37 Al Jefferson CHA 65 30.6 -1.47 0.56 -0.91 1.75
38 Robert Sacre LAL 67 16.9 -2.61 1.59 -1.02 0.93
39 Reggie Evans SAC 47 16.3 -1.07 -0.09 -1.16 0.55
40 Steven Adams OKC 70 25.3 -2.72 1.54 -1.18 1.30
2014-15 Real Plus-Minus - Centers
RK NAME TEAM GP MPG ORPM DRPM RPM WAR
41 Omer Asik NO 76 26.1 -3.01 1.83 -1.18 1.41
42 Ryan Hollins SAC 46 9.6 -1.98 0.77 -1.21 0.32
43 Lucas Nogueira TOR 6 3.8 -0.92 -0.35 -1.27 0.02
44 Marreese Speights GS 76 15.9 0.02 -1.47 -1.45 0.72
45 Clint Capela HOU 12 7.5 -1.97 0.49 -1.48 0.05
46 Nerlens Noel PHI 75 30.8 -4.85 3.35 -1.50 1.24
47 Jeff Withey NO 37 7.0 -0.83 -0.70 -1.53 0.13
48 Festus Ezeli GS 46 11.0 -2.14 0.57 -1.57 0.25
49 Miles Plumlee MIL/PHX 73 16.4 -2.01 0.28 -1.73 0.46
50 Nikola Vucevic ORL 74 34.2 -1.48 -0.37 -1.85 0.79
51 Greg Stiemsma TOR 17 3.9 -1.24 -0.65 -1.89 0.02
52 Tarik Black HOU/LAL 63 19.0 -1.67 -0.28 -1.95 0.29
53 Enes Kanter OKC/UTAH 75 28.5 1.15 -3.87 -2.72 -0.49
54 Anderson Varejao CLE 26 24.5 -2.23 -0.57 -2.80 -0.18
55 John Henson MIL 67 18.3 -4.13 1.32 -2.81 -0.35
56 Cole Aldrich NY 61 16.0 -4.78 1.51 -3.27 -0.54
57 JaVale McGee DEN/PHI 23 11.1 -1.47 -1.80 -3.27 -0.15
58 Jerome Jordan BKN 44 8.7 -2.65 -0.65 -3.30 -0.22
59 Samuel Dalembert NY 32 17.0 -4.76 1.40 -3.36 -0.32
60 Chris Kaman POR 74 18.9 -2.56 -1.25 -3.81 -1.26
61 Henry Sims PHI 73 19.2 -4.18 0.28 -3.90 -1.37
62 Kendrick Perkins CLE/OKC 68 16.9 -4.97 1.06 -3.91 -1.12
63 Matt Bonner SA 72 13.0 -1.45 -2.52 -3.97 -0.94
64 DeJuan Blair WSH 29 6.2 -2.96 -1.30 -4.26 -0.21
65 Jordan Hill LAL 70 26.8 -2.95 -1.42 -4.37 -2.34
66 Andrea Bargnani NY 29 27.1 -1.72 -3.57 -5.29 -1.40
Glossary
GP: Games Played
MPG: Minutes Per Game
ORPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team offensive performance, measured in points scored per 100 offensive possessions
DRPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team defensive performance, measured in points allowed per 100 defensive possessions
RPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors
WAR: The estimated number of team wins attributable to each player, based on RPM
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/RPM/position/9
so Mozgov, Monroe and Gortat have higher averages than Dwight Howard and Joakim Noah? this must be really accurate since your such an stat expert right? so those 3 must be better players than Howard and Noah right? wonder which group has more all star appearances or individual awards?
Does anyone see how stats can be easily misinterpreted or used to make whichever point one wants to make, but at the end mean NOTHING? when in this case, with my comparisons between Mozgov, Monroe and Gortat vs Howard and Noah, that number doesn't really prove anything to who is the better player?
Wow, Dwight has more all star appearances and individual awards? That's super.
Who won the championship, and who was sitting at home with his all star badges declaring "I'm still a champion no matter what anybody says"?
rambone- Posts : 1057
Join date : 2015-05-04
Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
Tons of teams are also not very good, because they have no rim protection, no rebounding, will never make deep playoff runs because they are soft. I understand teams can also get those things from other positions, but I like the tried and true one that has worked since the Bill Russell days, that if we can get those attributes from the center position, all the other pieces and facets of the game more readily fall into place. Is there any other phase of the game you care to educate us about? cause I really want to learn more from you.....
cowens/oldschool- Posts : 27706
Join date : 2009-10-18
Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
rambone wrote:cowens/oldschool wrote:rambone wrote:Real plus-minus isn't a perfect stat, but it's a much better stat than simple blocks or rebounds in the box score.
2014-15 Real Plus-Minus - Centers
RK NAME TEAM GP MPG ORPM DRPM RPM WAR
1 DeMarcus Cousins SAC 59 34.1 1.41 4.71 6.12 10.86
2 Zaza Pachulia MIL 73 23.7 1.38 3.42 4.80 7.66
3 Tyson Chandler DAL 75 30.5 1.04 3.54 4.58 9.99
4 DeAndre Jordan LAC 82 34.4 2.03 2.43 4.46 12.08
5 Marc Gasol MEM 81 33.2 1.70 1.91 3.61 9.68
6 Kelly Olynyk BOS 64 22.3 1.79 1.71 3.50 5.27
7 Andrew Bogut GS 67 23.6 -1.81 4.97 3.16 5.58
8 Timofey Mozgov CLE/DEN 81 25.3 -0.57 3.43 2.86 6.68
9 Greg Monroe DET 69 31.0 0.37 2.28 2.65 6.49
10 Marcin Gortat WSH 82 29.9 -0.10 2.56 2.46 7.28
11 Jusuf Nurkic DEN 62 17.8 -1.69 4.02 2.33 3.33
12 Al Horford ATL 76 30.5 0.32 1.82 2.14 6.34
13 Rudy Gobert UTAH 82 26.3 -1.66 3.63 1.97 5.54
14 Dwight Howard HOU 41 29.8 -0.12 2.08 1.96 3.32
15 Joakim Noah CHI 67 30.6 -1.12 2.21 1.09 4.33
16 Tristan Thompson CLE 82 26.8 1.34 -0.48 0.86 4.25
17 Joel Anthony DET 49 8.3 -1.82 2.68 0.86 0.80
18 Kosta Koufos MEM 81 16.6 -2.56 3.30 0.74 2.56
19 Andre Drummond DET 82 30.5 -0.07 0.81 0.74 4.75
20 Hassan Whiteside MIA 48 23.8 -0.96 1.64 0.68 2.10
21 Chris Bosh MIA 44 35.4 0.72 -0.04 0.68 2.82
22 Tyler Zeller BOS 82 21.1 -0.78 1.36 0.58 3.25
23 Nikola Pekovic MIN 31 26.3 -0.43 0.99 0.56 1.49
24 Robin Lopez POR 59 27.8 -1.21 1.74 0.53 2.94
25 Boris Diaw SA 81 24.5 -0.20 0.26 0.06 2.93
26 Roy Hibbert IND 76 25.3 -2.44 2.43 -0.01 2.73
27 Alexis Ajinca NO 68 14.1 -1.01 0.90 -0.11 1.27
28 Meyers Leonard POR 55 15.4 -1.88 1.71 -0.17 1.16
29 Chuck Hayes TOR 29 8.8 -0.33 0.08 -0.25 0.33
30 Nazr Mohammed CHI 23 5.6 -0.89 0.34 -0.55 0.14
31 Dewayne Dedmon ORL 59 14.3 -2.79 2.20 -0.59 0.92
32 Brook Lopez BKN 72 29.2 -0.76 0.16 -0.60 2.22
33 Jonas Valanciunas TOR 80 26.2 -1.71 1.03 -0.68 2.17
34 Alex Len PHX 69 22.0 -2.90 2.16 -0.74 1.59
35 Gorgui Dieng MIN 73 30.0 -1.42 0.68 -0.74 2.20
36 Ian Mahinmi IND 61 18.8 -3.22 2.47 -0.75 1.13
37 Al Jefferson CHA 65 30.6 -1.47 0.56 -0.91 1.75
38 Robert Sacre LAL 67 16.9 -2.61 1.59 -1.02 0.93
39 Reggie Evans SAC 47 16.3 -1.07 -0.09 -1.16 0.55
40 Steven Adams OKC 70 25.3 -2.72 1.54 -1.18 1.30
2014-15 Real Plus-Minus - Centers
RK NAME TEAM GP MPG ORPM DRPM RPM WAR
41 Omer Asik NO 76 26.1 -3.01 1.83 -1.18 1.41
42 Ryan Hollins SAC 46 9.6 -1.98 0.77 -1.21 0.32
43 Lucas Nogueira TOR 6 3.8 -0.92 -0.35 -1.27 0.02
44 Marreese Speights GS 76 15.9 0.02 -1.47 -1.45 0.72
45 Clint Capela HOU 12 7.5 -1.97 0.49 -1.48 0.05
46 Nerlens Noel PHI 75 30.8 -4.85 3.35 -1.50 1.24
47 Jeff Withey NO 37 7.0 -0.83 -0.70 -1.53 0.13
48 Festus Ezeli GS 46 11.0 -2.14 0.57 -1.57 0.25
49 Miles Plumlee MIL/PHX 73 16.4 -2.01 0.28 -1.73 0.46
50 Nikola Vucevic ORL 74 34.2 -1.48 -0.37 -1.85 0.79
51 Greg Stiemsma TOR 17 3.9 -1.24 -0.65 -1.89 0.02
52 Tarik Black HOU/LAL 63 19.0 -1.67 -0.28 -1.95 0.29
53 Enes Kanter OKC/UTAH 75 28.5 1.15 -3.87 -2.72 -0.49
54 Anderson Varejao CLE 26 24.5 -2.23 -0.57 -2.80 -0.18
55 John Henson MIL 67 18.3 -4.13 1.32 -2.81 -0.35
56 Cole Aldrich NY 61 16.0 -4.78 1.51 -3.27 -0.54
57 JaVale McGee DEN/PHI 23 11.1 -1.47 -1.80 -3.27 -0.15
58 Jerome Jordan BKN 44 8.7 -2.65 -0.65 -3.30 -0.22
59 Samuel Dalembert NY 32 17.0 -4.76 1.40 -3.36 -0.32
60 Chris Kaman POR 74 18.9 -2.56 -1.25 -3.81 -1.26
61 Henry Sims PHI 73 19.2 -4.18 0.28 -3.90 -1.37
62 Kendrick Perkins CLE/OKC 68 16.9 -4.97 1.06 -3.91 -1.12
63 Matt Bonner SA 72 13.0 -1.45 -2.52 -3.97 -0.94
64 DeJuan Blair WSH 29 6.2 -2.96 -1.30 -4.26 -0.21
65 Jordan Hill LAL 70 26.8 -2.95 -1.42 -4.37 -2.34
66 Andrea Bargnani NY 29 27.1 -1.72 -3.57 -5.29 -1.40
Glossary
GP: Games Played
MPG: Minutes Per Game
ORPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team offensive performance, measured in points scored per 100 offensive possessions
DRPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team defensive performance, measured in points allowed per 100 defensive possessions
RPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors
WAR: The estimated number of team wins attributable to each player, based on RPM
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/RPM/position/9
so Mozgov, Monroe and Gortat have higher averages than Dwight Howard and Joakim Noah? this must be really accurate since your such an stat expert right? so those 3 must be better players than Howard and Noah right? wonder which group has more all star appearances or individual awards?
Does anyone see how stats can be easily misinterpreted or used to make whichever point one wants to make, but at the end mean NOTHING? when in this case, with my comparisons between Mozgov, Monroe and Gortat vs Howard and Noah, that number doesn't really prove anything to who is the better player?
Wow, Dwight has more all star appearances and individual awards? That's super.
Who won the championship, and who was sitting at home with his all star badges declaring "I'm still a champion no matter what anybody says"?
I couldn't really give 2 craps about Dwight Howard, odd how he has so many first team all NBA appearences and KO, Mozgov, etc have none, maybe these stats your showing me are flawed?
Last edited by cowens/oldschool on Sun Sep 27, 2015 2:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
cowens/oldschool- Posts : 27706
Join date : 2009-10-18
Re: Projecting The Boston Celtics’ Rookie Impacts
You like the tried and true method under old rules that no longer apply.
And get a look at who had the worst real offensive plus minus among all NBA centers, while KO was second best.
Take a look:
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/ORPM/position/9
And get a look at who had the worst real offensive plus minus among all NBA centers, while KO was second best.
Take a look:
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/ORPM/position/9
rambone- Posts : 1057
Join date : 2015-05-04
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