ESPN writer examines trade hypothetical involving Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks center Greg Monroe

http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2016/01/espn_writer_considers_trade_hy.html






Greg Monroe (AP photo/Winslow Townson)



Jay King | mjking@masslive.com By Jay King | mjking@masslive.com


on January 15, 2016 at 3:45 PM





ESPN writer examines trade hypothetical involving Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks center Greg Monroe




Within a Friday morning column on the Milwaukee Bucks, ESPN's Zach Lowe tossed out a hypothetical trade scenario involving the Boston Celtics and Bucks center Greg Monroe.

Alert: this is not a trade rumor. Lowe even stated he has heard the Bucks have not dangled Monroe in trade talks yet. But with the deadline about a month away and the Celtics hoping to "consolidate quantity for quality," according to team president of basketball operations Danny Ainge, it's interesting to consider which talented players could possibly hit the market. Adding Monroe hasn't stopped the Bucks from sliding this season; Lowe expects them to explore the big man's value if they don't rattle off a string of wins before the deadline next month.

"All three of Boston, Charlotte and Portland could offer combinations of players, picks and salary filler that might interest Milwaukee," Lowe wrote. "One lottery-protected Boston pick wouldn't do it, and the Celtics aren't flipping those golden Brooklyn picks for Monroe. But what about two of their own picks, or one pick and Jared Sullinger? Would one unprotected Charlotte pick do the trick, since the Hornets are something like a 50-50 bet to end up in the lottery even with Monroe? Portland has chased Monroe before, and they have some interesting young guys and $20 million in cap room. After working to establish themselves as a player-friendly place, the Bucks would have to be careful about where, and how, they deal Monroe."

Monroe's contract extends through 2016-17 with a player option for the following season -- the type of short-term deal (at around $17 million per season) that should be tradeable even if he doesn't pan out. He's not the easiest player to fit in, but the Celtics would have to think about it if they could add a low-post scorer without touching their current core or the Brooklyn picks.



bob
MY NOTE: I'm not sure how a $17M player can be traded for a player still on his rookie contract but assuming it's doable, would you do it? Sullinger plus a non-Brooklyn pick for Greg Monroe? On the plus side Monroe is a much more versatile offensive player than Sully. He's shooting 50.5% but none from 3 while Sully is shooting 43% and 28% from 3. He is an excellent rebounder and passer too. He is no worse on defense, nor is he a rim protector (although that's not saying much about Sully). Then there is his contract.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/monrogr01.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/sullija01.html




.

"MY NOTE: I'm not sure how a $17M player can be traded for a player still on his rookie contract but assuming it's doable,"

My understanding on matching salaries. After the trade the Celts would still be under the salary cap while the Bucks would have reduced the amount of their payroll in relation to the salary cap. But don't bet the farm on my opinion.

swish

Is he more center or power forward? We got enough PFs.

gyso wrote:Is he more center or power forward?  We got enough PFs.

40 games this year. All at center.

swish

gyso

Well, a rim protector he is not.

Lot of loot for a not rim protector.

Dboss

He's not a rim protector on D, even though he plays at the 5. He clogs the middle at the other end due to him not even attempting a single three point shot.

He is not for the space and pace game. I vote no.

Danny made no attempts to go after the Greg Monroe's of the world during FA.

Nothing has changed.

Dboss

The space and pace game.

Golden State - Centers
Bogut - 0 - 3pt attempts in 700 minutes playing time.
Ezelli - 0 - 3pt attempts in 640 minutes playing time

Spurs - Center
Duncan - 2 - 3pt attempts in 918 minutes playing time

swish

http://bkref.com/tiny/PaeUL


Is their a stat that points out who the rim protectors are ? If their is, will someone point it out to me. In the meantime, perhaps some posters can tell me who the Rim Protectors are based on the above link. Note: Those players with 900 minutes plus are likely starters while those under 900 minutes would be the top 3 players coming off the bench.

  swish

swish,

I had a thread in the summer here I think, where I tried to find what exactly was the best stat or group of stats to show the best rim protectors.

I came up wanting mostly...but if I recall for ME the best stats were a combination of blocks per game and Opponents FG %.

Is a rim protector as valuable in the modern game, where offenses rely more on the 3 and modern defenses can ameliorate the lack of a rim protector by clogging the middle? Not saying they are not valuable, just that maybe that they are overhyped a little.

Shamrock1000 wrote:Is a rim protector as valuable in the modern game, where offenses rely more on the 3 and modern defenses can ameliorate the lack of a rim protector by clogging the middle? Not saying they are not valuable, just that maybe that they are overhyped a little.

the top teams still have elite defensive players at the center position, the nights their shot is off, every team has to be able to win ugly

cowens/oldschool wrote:

Shamrock1000 wrote:Is a rim protector as valuable in the modern game, where offenses rely more on the 3 and modern defenses can ameliorate the lack of a rim protector by clogging the middle? Not saying they are not valuable, just that maybe that they are overhyped a little.

the top teams still have elite defensive players at the center position, the nights their shot is off, every team has to be able to win ugly

Who are the elite defensive players at the center position on GSW, San Antonio, Cleveland and Toronto?  Bogut is not an elite defensive player, but Green, Barnes and Iggy are.  Timmy isn't an elite defensive player at the center position anymore.  Is Mozgov really an "elite defensive player"?  If he is then why is the rumor the Cavs are shopping him?  Valanciunas?  N.  O.  Period.

Gobert is an elite defensive player at the center position.  Utah is 18-22.
Jordan is an elite defensive player at the center position.  LAC is good but not great and they are loaded with talent.
Howard is an elite defensive player at the center position.  Houston's record is worse than ours, including and especially their defense.
Whiteside is an elite defensive player at the center position.  Miami's record is good but not great and they have more talent than us.

Minny has Towns AND KG AND Dieng.  They suck overall and defensively.

We have the 4th best record, as defined by opposition fg%, in the NBA.  Which teams have lower opposition fg% than us?  Chicago, GSW and San Antonio.  Who is the elite defensive player at center for Chicago?  GSW's top defenders are all wings.  San Antonio's best defenders are Leonard and Gregg Popovich.  The rest of them, individually, aren't that great.  They just play together like a machine.

Miami with Whiteside, OKC with Ibaka and Adams, the Clippers with Jordan, Cleveland with Mozgov, the Knicks with Porzingis, Griz with Gasol, Sacto with Cousins and Koufos and WCS, the list goes on and on.  Every single one of those teams have worse opposition fg% than us.  The Utah Jazz with Gobert is the 17th and Detroit with Drummond is 19th.

My point is it's a bit more complicated than "you cannot be an elite defensive team without an elite defensive player at center".  We give up way too many fritos (in fact, we are #2 in the league with opposition ftas.  We give up 26.2 ftas/game.  Only Portland sends teams to the line more than us), and that drags our Total Points Given Up number, but our shooting defense is top 4 and our 3pt shooting defense is #2, TIED at 31.5% with GSW.  The way the league is going having an elite perimeter defense gets you a high overall defensive rating because everybody is moving their offense to the perimeter.  If everybody is bombing away what good is having a person whose effectiveness drops significantly outside of the dotted circle?  



bob


.

Bogut, Ezeli and Duncan are all still elite or very good defensively IMHO, even if Ezeli doesn't start, don't make me repeat Duncan's credentials and Aldridge can defend some too. You proved there are elite defensive centers on teams that  are not the best, but the best 2 in the West still have elite big man defensive play that they rely on night in and night out....on Cavs Movgov is not a stats type player, as soon as they acquired his length and ability to clog the lane defensively, team jelled. He is still needed to provde big man depth for the really big teams when needed, even though Thompson has come on this season as a rebounding beast.

....and we do have very good perimeter D with Smart and AB.

bobheckler wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:

Shamrock1000 wrote:Is a rim protector as valuable in the modern game, where offenses rely more on the 3 and modern defenses can ameliorate the lack of a rim protector by clogging the middle? Not saying they are not valuable, just that maybe that they are overhyped a little.

the top teams still have elite defensive players at the center position, the nights their shot is off, every team has to be able to win ugly

Who are the elite defensive players at the center position on GSW, San Antonio, Cleveland and Toronto?  Bogut is not an elite defensive player, but Green, Barnes and Iggy are.  Timmy isn't an elite defensive player at the center position anymore.  Is Mozgov really an "elite defensive player"?  If he is then why is the rumor the Cavs are shopping him?  Valanciunas?  N.  O.  Period.

Gobert is an elite defensive player at the center position.  Utah is 18-22.
Jordan is an elite defensive player at the center position.  LAC is good but not great and they are loaded with talent.
Howard is an elite defensive player at the center position.  Houston's record is worse than ours, including and especially their defense.
Whiteside is an elite defensive player at the center position.  Miami's record is good but not great and they have more talent than us.

Minny has Towns AND KG AND Dieng.  They suck overall and defensively.

We have the 4th best record, as defined by opposition fg%, in the NBA.  Which teams have lower opposition fg% than us?  Chicago, GSW and San Antonio.  Who is the elite defensive player at center for Chicago?  GSW's top defenders are all wings.  San Antonio's best defenders are Leonard and Gregg Popovich.  The rest of them, individually, aren't that great.  They just play together like a machine.

Miami with Whiteside, OKC with Ibaka and Adams, the Clippers with Jordan, Cleveland with Mozgov, the Knicks with Porzingis, Griz with Gasol, Sacto with Cousins and Koufos and WCS, the list goes on and on.  Every single one of those teams have worse opposition fg% than us.  The Utah Jazz with Gobert is the 17th and Detroit with Drummond is 19th.

My point is it's a bit more complicated than "you cannot be an elite defensive team without an elite defensive player at center".  We give up way too many fritos (in fact, we are #2 in the league with opposition ftas.  We give up 26.2 ftas/game.  Only Portland sends teams to the line more than us), and that drags our Total Points Given Up number, but our shooting defense is top 4 and our 3pt shooting defense is #2, TIED at 31.5% with GSW.  The way the league is going having an elite perimeter defense gets you a high overall defensive rating because everybody is moving their offense to the perimeter.  If everybody is bombing away what good is having a person whose effectiveness drops significantly outside of the dotted circle?  



bob


.

"Gobert is an elite defensive player at the center position.  Utah is 18-22."

Gobert has missed 20 of their 40 games due to injury.

"Minny has Towns AND KG AND Dieng.  They suck overall and defensively."

Towns is a rookie, KG plays less than 15 minutes a game (and has even sat out six games ENTIRELY so for all their games he's averaging 12.3 minutes) and Dieng only plays 24.  Even Towns only gets 29 MPG.

What happens in the post play of the centers now appears to be a lot less significant then back in the Russell and Bird generations. No 3 pointers during Russell's time and in 1985-86 the 3 pointer was not much of a factor. That year the Celtics took 278 3 point shots for an average of 3.4 a game. In 41 games this year Curry alone has hoisted 447 in only 41 games for a per game average of 10.9. That's more than 3 times more than the entire Celtic team back in 1985-86. Perhaps an intimidating defensive center is of less significance now.

swish

swish wrote:What happens in the post play of the centers now appears to be a lot less significant then back in the Russell and Bird generations. No 3 pointers during Russell's time and in 1985-86 the 3 pointer was not much of a factor. That year the Celtics took 278 3 point shots for an average of 3.4 a game. In 41 games this year Curry alone has hoisted 447 in only 41 games for a per game average of 10.9. That's more than 3 times more than the entire Celtic team back in 1985-86. Perhaps an intimidating defensive center is of less significance now.

 swish

Back in the days of Russell seems every team had one and a darn good back up. Now sort of like Dinosaurs to a degree.

beat

For all the pace and space, take Ezeli, Bogut and Duncan, who all don't need to score for their team to win, off their teams roster and those teams suddenly have big holes, you still need to clog the lane and not get beaten up too badly in the paint to win.....you still can't score without the ball, its better to get it boarding off a missed shot then receive it through the net, little point guards can't rebound enough to not need the bigs.

steve3344 wrote:

bobheckler wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:

Shamrock1000 wrote:Is a rim protector as valuable in the modern game, where offenses rely more on the 3 and modern defenses can ameliorate the lack of a rim protector by clogging the middle? Not saying they are not valuable, just that maybe that they are overhyped a little.

the top teams still have elite defensive players at the center position, the nights their shot is off, every team has to be able to win ugly

Who are the elite defensive players at the center position on GSW, San Antonio, Cleveland and Toronto?  Bogut is not an elite defensive player, but Green, Barnes and Iggy are.  Timmy isn't an elite defensive player at the center position anymore.  Is Mozgov really an "elite defensive player"?  If he is then why is the rumor the Cavs are shopping him?  Valanciunas?  N.  O.  Period.

Gobert is an elite defensive player at the center position.  Utah is 18-22.
Jordan is an elite defensive player at the center position.  LAC is good but not great and they are loaded with talent.
Howard is an elite defensive player at the center position.  Houston's record is worse than ours, including and especially their defense.
Whiteside is an elite defensive player at the center position.  Miami's record is good but not great and they have more talent than us.

Minny has Towns AND KG AND Dieng.  They suck overall and defensively.

We have the 4th best record, as defined by opposition fg%, in the NBA.  Which teams have lower opposition fg% than us?  Chicago, GSW and San Antonio.  Who is the elite defensive player at center for Chicago?  GSW's top defenders are all wings.  San Antonio's best defenders are Leonard and Gregg Popovich.  The rest of them, individually, aren't that great.  They just play together like a machine.

Miami with Whiteside, OKC with Ibaka and Adams, the Clippers with Jordan, Cleveland with Mozgov, the Knicks with Porzingis, Griz with Gasol, Sacto with Cousins and Koufos and WCS, the list goes on and on.  Every single one of those teams have worse opposition fg% than us.  The Utah Jazz with Gobert is the 17th and Detroit with Drummond is 19th.

My point is it's a bit more complicated than "you cannot be an elite defensive team without an elite defensive player at center".  We give up way too many fritos (in fact, we are #2 in the league with opposition ftas.  We give up 26.2 ftas/game.  Only Portland sends teams to the line more than us), and that drags our Total Points Given Up number, but our shooting defense is top 4 and our 3pt shooting defense is #2, TIED at 31.5% with GSW.  The way the league is going having an elite perimeter defense gets you a high overall defensive rating because everybody is moving their offense to the perimeter.  If everybody is bombing away what good is having a person whose effectiveness drops significantly outside of the dotted circle?  



bob


.

"Gobert is an elite defensive player at the center position.  Utah is 18-22."

Gobert has missed 20 of their 40 games due to injury.

"Minny has Towns AND KG AND Dieng.  They suck overall and defensive.ly."

Towns is a rookie, KG plays less than 15 minutes a game (and has even sat out six games ENTIRELY so for all their games he's averaging 12.3 minutes) and Dieng only plays 24.  Even Towns only gets 29 MPG.

steve,

In the 20 games that Gobert did play in their record is 11-9, a nice record, but not great.  In fact, their 11-9 record (55%) with Gobert is only slightly better than our 53% and we have NO shotblocker.  Their wins, with Gobert, came against Philly, Indy, Denver, Memphis, Atlanta, Toronto, LAC, NOP, Miami and 2 against the Lakers.  So some good teams, no real elite ones, a couple of real dogs (Philly and LAL) and one or two at least in the canine family (Denver, NOP).  Their losses, with Gobert, were to Detroit, 2 to Portland, Cleveland, Dallas, OKC, GSW, Houston and Sacto.  Losses to quality opponents.  If you look at the game scores, Utah struggles to score.  I think 103 was the top score in all their losses and in their wins their top score was 102.  When you consider he is only averaging 8.9ppg and 62% from the line, maybe his offensive limitations almost offset his defensive contributions?  He appears to clearly cap their offensive potential and if you can't score more than 103ppg then you are going to struggle to win games, especially against teams with shooters out where his defensive abilities won't come into play.

Towns is a rookie, true, but he has KG for a tutor.  If Towns and Dieng don't play as many minutes as some might think they should maybe that's because Minny's team defense isn't as good when they play more minutes?  The Minny interior defense isn't that good.  From <5' they are 27th in opponents fg%, giving up 61.2%.  We are 17th from that distance, giving up 57.3% and we have no rim protector.  From 5-9' they are 9th at 38.1% and we are close behind them, tied for 8th, at 38.6%.  So if you're talking about fg defense from inside the dotted circle we are better than them from point blank and right on their tail from just beyond point blank and we don't have any individual players that match up with any of those 3.  As I was saying, it's not as simple and straight-forward as having a rim protector, you need a system.



bob


.

Interesting discussion on rim protectors. I'd definitely take one, but I think you can win without one. Wouldn't overpay for someone who is purely a rim protector, but if he comes with other skills I'm listening.

bobheckler wrote:Who are the elite defensive players at the center position on GSW, San Antonio, Cleveland and Toronto?  Bogut is not an elite defensive player, but Green, Barnes and Iggy are.  Timmy isn't an elite defensive player at the center position anymore.  Is Mozgov really an "elite defensive player"?  If he is then why is the rumor the Cavs are shopping him?  Valanciunas?  N.  O.  Period.

Gobert is an elite defensive player at the center position.  Utah is 18-22.
Jordan is an elite defensive player at the center position.  LAC is good but not great and they are loaded with talent.
Howard is an elite defensive player at the center position.  Houston's record is worse than ours, including and especially their defense.
Whiteside is an elite defensive player at the center position.  Miami's record is good but not great and they have more talent than us.

Minny has Towns AND KG AND Dieng.  They suck overall and defensively.

We have the 4th best record, as defined by opposition fg%, in the NBA.  Which teams have lower opposition fg% than us?  Chicago, GSW and San Antonio.  Who is the elite defensive player at center for Chicago?  GSW's top defenders are all wings.  San Antonio's best defenders are Leonard and Gregg Popovich.  The rest of them, individually, aren't that great.  They just play together like a machine.

Miami with Whiteside, OKC with Ibaka and Adams, the Clippers with Jordan, Cleveland with Mozgov, the Knicks with Porzingis, Griz with Gasol, Sacto with Cousins and Koufos and WCS, the list goes on and on.  Every single one of those teams have worse opposition fg% than us.  The Utah Jazz with Gobert is the 17th and Detroit with Drummond is 19th.

My point is it's a bit more complicated than "you cannot be an elite defensive team without an elite defensive player at center".  We give up way too many fritos (in fact, we are #2 in the league with opposition ftas.  We give up 26.2 ftas/game.  Only Portland sends teams to the line more than us), and that drags our Total Points Given Up number, but our shooting defense is top 4 and our 3pt shooting defense is #2, TIED at 31.5% with GSW.  The way the league is going having an elite perimeter defense gets you a high overall defensive rating because everybody is moving their offense to the perimeter.  If everybody is bombing away what good is having a person whose effectiveness drops significantly outside of the dotted circle?

Some things we disagree on:

-- I think Bogut is an elite defensive center. Despite being blown out against Detroit, Bogut played Drummond tough. He blocked a couple of his shots, changed others, and generally harassed him into a 6-20 shooting night. Ezeli is very good defensively for a backup, but he's not yet in Bogut's class.

-- Duncan is still effective defensively. On the team with far and away the best defensive rating, he is tied for second in defensive win shares behind Kawhi Leonard.

-- Whiteside is not elite defensively. Despite his blocks, the Heat are more effective defensively when he sits because he anchors himself to the paint instead of defending wherever his assignment goes and always, always, always, goes for the block, which teams learn how to use to their advantage with smart interior passing and offensive rebounds.

-- Dieng is like Whiteside in that he gets blocks but makes his team's defense more vulnerable rather than better. Towns isn't a great defender yet, though he may be some day. KG is just done. Minny doesn't have good interior defense.

-- Mark Gasol may have been DPOY in 2012-13, but his defense (and overall play) has fallen precipitously since then.

Some things we agree on:

-- Having an elite defensive center is not a requirement to having an effective defense, and having an elite defensive center doesn't automatically mean you have an elite defense.

-- With the rise of three-point shooting, perimeter defense is more important than ever, which means that having an elite defensive center is less important than it used to be.

Other observations:

-- Mozgov played defense at a very high level last season, particularly in the playoffs, but he is for some reason a shell of that player this season. He had an off-season procedure on (I believe) his knee, and at this point, he looks slow, floor-bound, and ineffective.

-- Having elite perimeter defense may be more important, but having an elite defensive center can enhance an elite perimeter defense. Modern offenses aren't just about three-point shooting; they're about getting three-pointers and layups and generally avoiding long twos and mid-range jumpers. Just as the three-point shooting and layups complement each other, perimeter defense and rim protection can complement each other. When teams go small, you can still take advantage of rim protection; it just shifts from the traditional seven-footer to a guy like Draymond Green.

I don't seem to see a clear cut answer as to what points out a defensive post intimidator. Using the below list of current centers please point out those players that you consider to be rim protectors (or any other name that you choose that singles out centers with a strong defensive presence ) and what criteria you used to single out the player. Perhaps it is strictly an individual eye ball test and is very heavily dependent on individual opinion.

swish

Outside


--" Having an elite defensive center is not a requirement to having an effective defense, and having an elite defensive center doesn't automatically mean you have an elite defense."

--" With the rise of three-point shooting, perimeter defense is more important than ever, which means that having an elite defensive center is less important than it used to be."

Sums up my feelings completely. If you happen to have one, its a plus but beyond that its all about having the horses to OVERALL make the team a top contender. This team is along way from being a serious contender and a so called rim protector will not, at this point in time, be the final piece to the puzzle.

swish

Swish,

For the Celtics, I think getting one or two capable three-point shooters is a higher priority than an elite defensive center.