The Matchup Celtics vs Lakers

TJ,

Present your argument why and how you think LAL will win.

dbrown,

Here are some reasons why I think L.A. will win. These are in no particular order. In the end, I feel Boston won't be able to score enough to win the series.
1) Ron Artest: He is a huge upgrade defensively compared to L.A.'s small forward's from 2008. Pierce is a great match up for him as both of them are slow small forward's and Artest will be able to keep Pierce in front of him. Also, LA will probably get as much offense from Artest as they did from Radmonovic, Walton and Ariza. In the 2008 Finals those 3 scored a combined 11.2 ppg on 39.4% shooting in 48 mpg.
2) Lamar Odom: He is a very tough match up for Boston. KG still has the athleticism to play him well, but if Rasheed or BBD guard him, that is a huge advantage for L.A.
3) Perkins with 6 techs. 1 more and he is suspended for 1 game. His natural inclination when called for fouls seems to be aggressive/confrontational toward the referees. In the heat of the game/series, I could see him receiving a double tech with a Lakers player.
4) Rasheed's lack of defense and rebounding against a long Lakers team.
5) Kobe/Allen matchup: Kobe will probably average 15+ more points per game then Ray. In the month of May (last two series for each team) Ray has averaged 15.7 ppg while Kobe has averaged 33 ppg. Ray has scored 20+ a number of times, but in his last 10 games, Ray has had single digit scoring games in 4 of them. Kobe is playing at the top of his game and is head and shoulders the best player of the court. If Boston chooses to double team him, he has been finding the open player or the player who passes to the open player.
6) Bynum/Perk matchup: Having Bynum on the floor in this year's finals is a huge difference from 2008. Bynum doesn't have to worry about playing a quick center who is going to take him away from the basket. Unlike Howard, Bynum has the offensive moves to score from 5-10 feet. Perk might be strong enough to keep him away from the basket but Bynum should be able to shoot over Perkins.
7) Fisher: Takes and makes big shots throughout the playoffs. He is averaging 4 mpre ppg against Utah and Phoenix then he did in the regular season.

Some Boston points:
A) I don't consider the 2-3-2 format a real home court advantage for L.A.
B) Rondo is a terrible matchup for L.A. Which Rondo will show up, the one that looked like the top pg in the league against Cleveland or the one that was very good but not great against Orlando? Rondo averaged 14.3 ppg and 8 apg against Orlando. L.A can live with those numbers.
C) Bench is a slight edge offensively for Boston because of BBD. Rasheed could give Boston 15 pts or clunk (4) 3 pt attempts for 0 points. If Boston wants to use TA to help guard Kobe, then a much better player is sitting.

I cannot wait until the games actually begin so we can talk about what actually DID happen.

I donated my crystal ball to some hippies in Santa Cruz.

bob

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I agree Thursday night can't come soon enough.
I wonder if Sam is still worried that Sasha is going to hit a game winning 3 at the buzzer of OT in game 7 after Kobe fouls out?

Question to anyone? Why isn't Sasha suspended for game 1? Even though Dragic bumped him first, Sasha's arm to Dragic's chin seems worthy of a flagrant 2, the way the NBA hands out penalties.

Tj

No such luck...yall are stuck with sasha

TJ,

I'm not that worried. I don't think I ever specified whose basket would be involved.

Sam

Sam wrote:TJ,

I'm not that worried. I don't think I ever specified whose basket would be involved.

Sam

THat sounds more like a Sheed issue.

I heard Kobe was beyond pissed at Sasha and that after the game someone asked Kobe about him and Kobe said something like "he's still breathing".
When he finally gets out of the doghouse and makes some contributions, Sasha does something stupid.
He annoys even hard-core lakers fans.
At least Morrison has his buddy to sit with again...

Sam wrote:TJ,

I'm not that worried. I don't think I ever specified whose basket would be involved.

Sam

LOL. Sasha is not exactly MIT material...

Annoys ?

More like Sasha is HATED by hardcore Laker fans (including this one).

I doubt that jackass sees any meaningful minutes this series. Considering he almost cost them game 6 in PHX, I'd be surprised we see that douche unless the Lakers are up big or down big in garbage time.

But I expect all of the games to be close, and therefore not have garbage time.

Hence, I'm hoping the biggest piece of garbage in the NBA won't see the court.

BSH,

Tell us how you really feel.
I agree with your sentiments.
Sasha needs to be moved this offseason.

tjmakz wrote:BSH,

Tell us how you really feel.
I agree with your sentiments.
Sasha needs to be moved this offseason.

TJ,

Sasha Eurobitch's contract is up at the end of next season. Adam Morrison has a qualifying offer coming his way (or NOT!) after this season. The problem for the Lakers is I can't see any team being willing to give up anybody or anything (e.g. draft pick) of value for either one of them or for the two of them combined. What that means that Morrison will not be resigned (probably, since he's got more splinters in his ass than anybody else on the Laker bench), which will still not get the Lakers under the salary cap, and Sasha will only have trade value as we get close to the trading deadline and he's only owed a fraction of the $5.5M he's getting paid next season. Even then, when you talk about "expiring contracts" value, $5.5M isn't much to work with if you want someone decent for him.

My gut tells me you're going to have to live with him for another year. Then, you can deport him. I suspect you'll have no trouble getting babyskyhook to volunteer walking him to his departure gate.

bob

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bob

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bob,

It's obvious that Morrison has at most 7 more games left in his Lakers career.
You are right that Sasha has no trade value. I am not looking to get a player of value or a draft pick.
If LA can trade him, it will be for someone else's headache that they are done dealing with.

tj,

I'll give you a slight edge on #2, #5 (which is a given) and 50/50 on #6 since we haven't seen Bynum in action due to injury.

#1. Artest? Defense? Lakers/Suns? Defense? Check your points against. He may be a huge upgrade for LAL in the defensive arena, but his addition hardly brings LAL up to par with what is about to hit them in the area of lockdown defense.

#3. Perk will get his 7th tech and will sit one game. It won't matter. There is plenty of backup. Besides, doesn't Perk have trouble with "athletic" bigs. Having him sit one may be a blessing.

#4. Rasheed won't be used so much for defense this series as he will be for offense, opening up the floor through 3's , then going underneath or 8-10 feet fade away jumpers. Defense will be used for denying the entry pass of which he is the master.

#7. Fisher. While he may have been playing way over his head the last three series, this is where he will be completely torched by Rondo, if he even guards him. Otherwise, he's guarding Ray and that result will be even worse. Rondo will blow one game in this series. Don't know how, when or where, but he won't show up for one game. Not enough assists, points, too many turns. That's it. The rest will be Cousy-like, Globetrotter-like execution. Kobe may run around and guard him for a while but Kobe will tire and have to start jacking up twice as many shots to get the same results he experienced in the first three rounds. And we all know LAL's record when that starts to happen, 0-whatever.

You left out defense. Do you think if the Celtics crank up the defense even remotely like they did against CLE and ORL that LAL can figure it out better than ORL and CLE? Heck Doc may even throw in a zone for two games. That's two victories right there (ask PHX) and that's like cheating. It's not even defense as far as the NBA is concerned or doing the suffocating D like we really want to put to LAL.

Bench, slight edge. Hate to pull a McEnroe, but you can't be serious. Big edge here. LAL running on fumes there.

What is the Lakers game plan? Who are they going to stop? They can't stop all of them. Game Plan for Nate? Phil won't even waste his time here. ORL didn't have one. Cost them making history. Only the real LA Magic called it pre-game, which still baffles me. I know he's picking LAL. Our game plan is the same as it was for the first three rounds. We've gotten pretty good at it. We know how to beat teams with superstars. Keep Kobe in check, wear him down by committee, let the rest beat us, one-on-one. We've already knocked out the 2 teams with the best records in the league. Are the Lakers really, honestly any different or better than ORL or CLE? If they are, they will win. I'll be the first to congratulate you and the Lakers.

So you have Kobe outscoring Ray by 15, slightly more defense from no defense with Artest, Lamar and Perk with one T in waiting to win 4 games. Sorry, just don't see that adding up to 4.

You can begin to see LAL has a problem in the way Phil and Co. answer questions. They think that having homecourt will correct for 2008. They gave away Game 4 in 2008. It may give them one extra game at home, but now you are going up against a team that innihilates teams in their own gym for sport, not to mention losing just one game at home during the playoffs. Pick something...Revenge!! Tell us you want to beat the crap out of us because of Game 6 2008. But even Kobe is backing away from that hot potato.

This may very well be a series where the Celtics look clearly better on paper, yet may not be able to prove it on the court. But everyone, press included, is doing exactly what has been done for the first three rounds and that is ignore Boston. They will go away. No Plan B. Every one of the media's 2010 golden scenarios has been shot down. First it was LAL v. CLE, then LAL v. ORL, the rematch. They will sell 1,000X more advertising with LAL v. BOS than any other match-up, yet only when it was dumped on them did they have to begrudgingly start writing and talking about it. Please continue to ignore us and the facts.

bobheckler wrote:I cannot wait until the games actually begin so we can talk about what actually DID happen.

I donated my crystal ball to some hippies in Santa Cruz.

bob

.

So we should be paying more attention to hippies from Santa Cruz.

bobheckler wrote:

tjmakz wrote:BSH,

Tell us how you really feel.
I agree with your sentiments.
Sasha needs to be moved this offseason.

TJ,

Sasha Eurobitch's contract is up at the end of next season. Adam Morrison has a qualifying offer coming his way (or NOT!) after this season. The problem for the Lakers is I can't see any team being willing to give up anybody or anything (e.g. draft pick) of value for either one of them or for the two of them combined. What that means that Morrison will not be resigned (probably, since he's got more splinters in his ass than anybody else on the Laker bench), which will still not get the Lakers under the salary cap, and Sasha will only have trade value as we get close to the trading deadline and he's only owed a fraction of the $5.5M he's getting paid next season. Even then, when you talk about "expiring contracts" value, $5.5M isn't much to work with if you want someone decent for him.

My gut tells me you're going to have to live with him for another year. Then, you can deport him. I suspect you'll have no trouble getting babyskyhook to volunteer walking him to his departure gate.

bob

Bob-

You are right that there is absolutely no way Ammo is coming back. And Sasha has limited value. The only way that he gets moved this offseason is to take on long term money from a team looking to dump salary.

If Philly drafts Evan Turner, they'd have Holiday, Iggy, Turner, Thad Young and Willie Green all getting minutes at the 1, 2 or 3. Lou Williams would be sitting there with a $5m deal to be a backup pg, but since Turner can play the 1, he'll probably get a lot of those minutes.

I could see Philly looking to unload Williams, so maybe Sasha + picks or cash would do it, as the Sixers would save $12m over the final two years of Lou's deal (after Sasha expires.)

GRanted, the Sixers would prefer under that scenario someone like Delonte West, who has a $500k buyout this summer, so they would get that much more savings, but basically that is the only scenario where I could see Sasha traded.

Otherwise, he'll get moved at the trade deadline for either a useful piece from a team dumping salary, or, more likely, the Lakers will trade him + $3m to a team that's well under the cap. The other team will have Sasha for free and make a $1m profit on the deal, while LA will save $4.5m net in salary and lux tax payments.

That's probably Sasha's only real value. Saving cash. Same with Ammo. LA will save $11m in salary and lux tax next year with him off the books. And not a moment too soon.


Bob- what did you think of my response to your breakdown on the first page ?

dbrown4 wrote:

This may very well be a series where the Celtics look clearly better on paper, yet may not be able to prove it on the court. But everyone, press included, is doing exactly what has been done for the first three rounds and that is ignore Boston.

ESPN was 6-4 favoring the Lakers. SI was 4-2 favoring the Cs. Bruce Bowen and Reggie MIller think Cs will win. Chuck and Kenny think Lakers will win. A lot of these guys picks were in 7, so it shows how close this series is being regarded.

David Aldridge on NBA.com said he doesn't know who is going to win b/c the teams are so evenly matched.


That's 10 analysts picking each side, with # 11 unable to decide.


I would say that Boston is neither the underdog nor being ignored. These predictions are as closely matched as you can get.

LOL at game plan for Nate. Nate has played 1 meaningful game in the last two months. Is he now back in the rotation? Whose minutes is he taking? If it is for Rondo, I am good with that.
Ask Kevin Durant about Artest's D. Paul will have a real hard time dealing with Artest.
LA plays very good defense when they need to. If you want to reference points against Phoenix, Boston gave up 226 points in two losses this year. They also scored at will against SA. Giving up 105 points to Phoenix is like giving up 90 to another team.
In the games that matter, LA has the ability to slow down the game. Game 6 @ Phoenix, LA gave up 103, game 4 @ Utah, LA gave up 96 and game 6 @ OKC, LA gave up 94.
Where is the big bench edge? For the most part LA will only play their top 8.
Boston annihilates teams at home for sport? Boston has lost 2 home games in the last two series. LA has lost 0 in their 3 playoffs series this year.
There are many differences in Boston that I didn't get into. (Decrease of Garnett and Pierce's athleticism and overall game, etc., loss of Posey, Brown and House. Rasheed is too inconsistent to count on.)

Should the press have picked the Celtics to win it all after their 50 win regular season? Or after beating up on a terrible Miami team? Miami is not even close to a playoff team if they were in the West. After playing pretty lousy ball for months, Boston had to earn back their standing, which they did. There are plenty of threads on this board and BDC that we could look back on to see how poorly the Celtics were playing. How close was Ainge to trading Ray Allen? You can look back and mock others for not picking the Celtics, but it wasn't because they are Celtics haters.
When was the last time you saw Kobe tired? I saw Paul go 0-fer in the last 3 quarters of game 5 against Orlando because he was out of gas. He didn't have the legs even for his open set shot.

Cleveland was exposed for what they really are. A one man show whose best player was disinterested in part of the series.
Orlando's best player has no offensive abilities other then dunking the ball while Carter and Lewis routinely come up small in big games.
I bet everyone on this board (maybe not you) believes that LA is much better then Cleveland and Orlando. L.A. beat a much better Orlando team last season who had Turkoglu.

The Nate Game Plan is the point. LAL's game plan is go out, guard everybody, try and play some defense and hope for the best. But they have no clue who is going to be the game killer. It's difficult to put a solid game plan together when you are swinging at the pinata in the dark. For us, it's Kobe and maybe Pow Pow. Now, while a daunting task with Kobe, we're pretty good at shutting the superstar down. I'll give you LAL is better than ORL and CLE, but most will agree those two rounds should have been/could have easily been sweeps or at most over in 5. They weren't, of course, but that gets back to the Rondo theory and how many games in a series he mails in plus margin of error. In 2008, Rondo dials in 2 games a series plus margin of error edge to opposition led us to 2 7 game series. This year, we're wrapping things up in 5-6 games. The difference. Rondo only dials in about 1 game per series. Kobe will tire chasing Rondo. Phil may do that for one game. You will know by the points to shots attempted ratio.

I don't think Doc will go zone, but he may throw it in there for a quarter or two just to eff with Phil, just to remind him we know more than one way beyond suffocating defense to take LAL down.

dbrown and TJ

We can all speculate till the proverbial cows come home.

Think for the C's it boils down to keeping LA off the offensive boards and making them work on defense by MOVING and not going too much iso with paul.

We do those 2 things well it will be tough for LA as it was for Orlando and Cleveland.

As for the arguement that Kobe is fresher in the end of games I believe he is an expert at pacing himself for that reason. He just doesn't always play "hard" all the time. And for that reason he may find himself looking at at a deficit heading into crunch time in the final 6 monutes or so. And if that is the case will he feel the need to be a "hero" or can/will he pass the rock at that time. I know he can get as hot as any shooter out there too. Gasol looks pretty lonely out there too much of the time. And that suits me fine.


beat

Just a

dbrown,

Nobody chases Rondo like you have to chase Ray.
The goal is to keep him in front of you.
The help on Nash was very good but he routinely made remarkable shots over Odom, Bynum and Gasol.
If LA can play that same defense, Rondo doesn't hit those shots.

Having not played a true zone all year, you are crazy if you think Doc is going to try it in the Finals. Phil made adjustments to the zone and LA defeated it. I don't think Boston's bigs have the athleticism to play a 1-3-1 zone like Phoenix was. BBD, Perk and Rasheed are best at man to man defense.

The Nate Game Plan is a fantasy. Game 6 against Orlando was the only game that Nate has played more then 4 minutes in this years playoffs that was not Garbage Time.
8 DNP's, 4 games of 1-4 minutes,
Game 2 Miami: 8 min, 106-77W
Game 3 Cleve: 13 min, 124-95 L
Game 3 Orlando: 5 min, 94-71 W
Game 5 Orlando: 9 min, 113-92 L
Game 6 Orlando: 13 min, 96-84 W

beat wrote:dbrown and TJ

We can all speculate till the proverbial cows come home.

Think for the C's it boils down to keeping LA off the offensive boards and making them work on defense by MOVING and not going too much iso with paul.

We do those 2 things well it will be tough for LA as it was for Orlando and Cleveland.

As for the arguement that Kobe is fresher in the end of games I believe he is an expert at pacing himself for that reason. He just doesn't always play "hard" all the time. And for that reason he may find himself looking at at a deficit heading into crunch time in the final 6 monutes or so. And if that is the case will he feel the need to be a "hero" or can/will he pass the rock at that time. I know he can get as hot as any shooter out there too. Gasol looks pretty lonely out there too much of the time. And that suits me fine.


beat

Just a

beat,

You are right that all of the time we spend in writing our thoughts/feelings/observations don't really mean anything.
What happens if Odom has a 19 pt, 19 reb game?
What if Ray hits 7 3's and goes for 33?
What if Kobe goes 7 for 26?
What if BBD has 18 off the bench?
Anything can happen...

dbrown,

I am copy and pasting an article that was on ESPN Insider today. I can't send a link because it will ask for a user ID and password. This is about Artest's defense on Pierce.


One weapon the Lakers now have in their arsenal that wasn't there last time they squared off with the Celtics during the 2008 Finals?

The mercurial Ron Artest.

And Artest is likely to draw the assignment of guarding Paul Pierce come Game 1 on Thursday in this year's Finals.

So who has the edge?

Well, Artest has actually fared pretty well against Pierce the last few seasons, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

"Pierce is averaging a mere 0.58 points per play against Artest over the past three regular seasons," writes Chris Forsberg of ESPN Boston. " ... Pierce ran 38 plays and scored 22 points on 6-of-26 shooting (23.1 percent) with eight turnovers and four trips to the foul line. The mere fact that Pierce generated more turnovers than field goals suggests Artest has dominated the matchup."

Remember: Pierce was the Finals MVP last time around in 2008. So if Artest is able to continue his stellar D against Pierce -- maybe he'll pull his shorts down again, even -- it could go a long way towards giving the Lakers a better shot at back-to-back titles.



Chris Forsberg of ESPN Boston
Beyond Artest, having to guard Kobe could hinder Pierce as well

"Given the way Pierce struggled offensively against Cleveland's LeBron James, it's worth watching if he's able to keep up his offensive exploits from the Eastern Confernce finals against the Magic. After all, Pierce will likely draw the already daunting task of guarding Kobe Bryant, much like he checked James in the second round, and used up much of his energy at that end of the floor. Here's one more set of numbers for you to chomp on: The last time Pierce and Artest met in the postseason was the opening round of the 2004 playoffs. Not only did the Pacers sweep, Pierce averaged 20.8 points per game on 34.2 percent shooting (just 29.4 percent from beyond the arc, while committing 6.3 turnovers per game."

tjmakz wrote:Chris Forsberg of ESPN Boston
Beyond Artest, having to guard Kobe could hinder Pierce as well

"Given the way Pierce struggled offensively against Cleveland's LeBron James, it's worth watching if he's able to keep up his offensive exploits from the Eastern Confernce finals against the Magic. After all, Pierce will likely draw the already daunting task of guarding Kobe Bryant, much like he checked James in the second round, and used up much of his energy at that end of the floor. Here's one more set of numbers for you to chomp on: The last time Pierce and Artest met in the postseason was the opening round of the 2004 playoffs. Not only did the Pacers sweep, Pierce averaged 20.8 points per game on 34.2 percent shooting (just 29.4 percent from beyond the arc, while committing 6.3 turnovers per game."

The guy is using stats from 2004 to make his case in 2010? Man, now that is a reach.

Who was on Pierces team in 04?Toine was gone and I believe we had no point guard either,as soon as Pierce touched the ball a young J O'Neil came over to double,their whole D swarmed him.......didn't Pierce have 2 40 point games when we beat them 4-2 and Artest in 03?