Next Up - Celtics @ Raptors, Tuesday February 26, 2019 at 8:00 PM

The Boston Celtics have not beaten the Raptors in Toronto since April 4, 2015 when they took home an exciting 117-116 OT victory.

This team has been below average on the road at 14 wins and 15 losses and they have also struggled to beat quality team where their 11 wins and 13 losses stands out like a sore thumb.

As the Celtics continue to flounder in 5th place, now 8.5 games back from the top of the order , their time in the batting cage grows short.  They are 3 games out of 3rd place separated only by the surprising  Pacers and the up and coming Sixers.  The top 4 spots gets you a home court advantage in the first round.  A 4th place finish, while still very disappointing, provides a better pathway to make it into the 2nd round.  The remaining schedule is daunting.
 
The time for talk is over.  The time for humility is here.

This teams will need to find its' inner strength to meet the huge challenge ahead.

I love our coach Stevens but he looks as confused as the team.  I think that his over reliance on analytics has been a detriment to the way he coaches.  In many respects this team has defied analytics because the most important elements are attitude,  motivation and determination.  Those ingredients are not measurable.  They will never find themselves as a statistic in the box score.  But they are the most important characteristics of winning or losing basketball games.

I should not be looking at this game with any thought of dread but I am.
 
The Celtics can ill afford to lose the most important game of the year again.

A win on Tuesday night will require maximum effort from the top to the bottom.  The Raptors are sitting on Easy street.  They have already faced the stiff competition and are 8-2 over their previous 10 games.

Tough matchups

Morris vs Siakum -  Morris has struggled against the Raptors.  In 3 games this year he is averaging 8.3 points and 5.7 rebounds.  Siakum plays PF but has the speed and quickness of a SF.  He is an excellent defender.    Siakum has been playing at a very high level during February.  Advantage Siakum.  I think I would use Semi on him a bit to counter his quickness.  He is going to murder Morris.

Horford vs Ibaka - Horford has played well in 3 games against the Raptors.  Segre starts at center.  Al  has averaged 16.3 PPG and 8.7 rebounds which is above his season average however he has not been able to shut Ibaka down who has averaged 21.3 PPG and 6.7 boards.  This month Ibaka is averaging 11.4 rebounds per game.  I see an even matchup here with Al getting the edge offensively because of his assists and Serge getting the edge defensively with an emphasis on rebounding

Smart vs Green -  This is an easy one.  Smart has been terrible in 3 games against the Raptors averaging  4 PPG.  Green has killed the Celtics in 3 games averaging 13.3 PPG with 5.3 rebounds.  He has shot 45% from deep because of poor perimeter defense.    I would start Jaylen Brown in place of Smart.

Irving vs Lowry -  no contest as Kyrie has average 30 with 11 assists in 3 games vs the Raptors

Tatum vs Leonard - No contest as Leonard is elite.  Tatum however has played well in 3 games averaging 17.7 PPG and 8.7 rebounds .  Leonard has scored 31.7 PPG with 9.7 boards but he has struggled  shooting the ball (25% from deep, 45% FG)  Leonard will need to be checked by multiple guys.  

The Raptors are a mentally tough opponent.  They can and will take advantage of every missed rotation, turnover or lack of blocking out by their opponents.  It is going to take a tremendous effort to come away with a win.  You have not won up there in 4 years so it is time to do somethings different and other things better.

Orlando just beat Toronto, in Toronto.  You know the Raptors will be spitting mad when we show up.


bob


.

I want to clarify something before someone's head explodes.

The Boston Celtics are perhaps the deepest team talent wise in the NBA.  They have 3 or 4 guys on this team that are rotation players but they have starter level talent.  Playing this deep rotation in traditional rotation roles may need to change.  

For example there are some teams where Aron Baynes should be starting because we need a more physical presence in our frontline.  How many folks disagree with that?  Players play better against some team better than they play against others teams.

In my previous post I suggested that Marcus Smart should come off the bench because he has played poorly against Toronto in 3 games.  Five points per game is below average even for his below average scoring.  If you dig a little deeper you will see that there are some teams that Marcus does not play well against for whatever reason.  It is the same for every player on this team.  There are teams they underperform against.

Indiana, 2 games, average is 2.5 points, 6 assists and 1 rebound and 20% from the field.   Milwaukee  3 games average is 5 points, 1.7 assists and 4 rebounds and 25% from the field.  Toronto 3 games, average 4 points, 3 assists and 3.7 rebounds and 31% from the field. Philadelphia 3 games, average 7 points, 3 assists, 3.7 rebounds and 27% from the field.

Compare those numbers to those of Jaylen Brown

Indiana 2 games, average 17 points, 1.5 assists , 7 rebounds and 46% filed goal
Milwaukee, 2 games, average 18 points, 2.5 assists, 6 rebounds and 61% field goal
Philadelphia 3 games, average 7.7 points, 2 assists, 3 rebounds 36% field goal
Toronto 3 games, average 9 points, 0 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 33% field goal.

These 4 teams are all ahead of us in the EC.  They represent the best of the competition in the East.

In head to head matchups Brown has been more productive than Smart against the top 4 teams in the conference.  That is the reason why I would not hesitate to shake up the lineup from time to time depending on the matchups.

There is a big difference in beating a quality opponent than there is in beating a scrub team although Boston has more than their share of losses this year against really bad teams.  When Boston made the change to their starting lineup the results looks spectacular like that 8 game winning streak against 8 dreadful teams.  Everybody got fat stats, everybody looked good.  Those matchups should not have  established a peaking order on this team.

There are players on the bench like Brown and Hayward that are better than some starters.  Not starting better players to achieve better matchups is one thing but limiting their playing time is atrocious and unjustified mismanagement of key assets.

All year long we have scratched our heads trying to figure out what the problem is.  Just maybe this is the problem.  

Brad Stevens has mismanaged this team since the beginning of the season.  He over-reacted when Brown was struggling earlier and he gave up on GH who was also struggling.   Now he is stuck with a lineup that gets most of the minutes but cannot seem to win.  He may want to retrace his steps to find out what was lost in the process.  My suggestion to him would be to get both Brown and Hayward some starting assignments when the matchups look more favorable.

Great post dboss. If Brad is so analytical, how come he's not catching the things you are pointing out? These would lMHBOA be equivalent to and as blaring as the baseball stat of left/right hand pitcher vs. right/left handed batter.

db

Dboss depth should be a blessing, it was on those great 60’s Celtics obviously. Brad has done a terrible job using that depth to the team’s advantage, we should be running teams off the floor, attacking in waves, we have done this in some blowouts, but obviously not enough....The forced integration of Hayward has thrown off other talents games, BS just hasn’t figured out how to maximize this teams talents/abilities. When I see certain lineups, I say damn this is gonna happen and then it does, how can Brad not see that? And it happens over and over, I don’t know if team has tuned him out or if he’s not that good/smart? Frustrating is a good word, this team has a long long way to go before being compared to any past C’s teams, that’s for sure.

Jaylen Brown has friggen all star ability, routinely makes plays that others in the league can’t make and in tight games that he’s rolling we have this strict regular rotation, and he doesn’t get the minutes and gets pulled out at crunch time, seeing the team’s weakness exposed with bad line ups over and over again during that time, leading to another loss....pathetic.

Jaylen can cover on perimeter and has better hops not to be such a liability when players going at the rim, Morris has been killing us at crunch time.

Dboss Stephen A just said what you said they need to do to get back on track....

cowens/oldschool wrote:Dboss Stephen A just said what you said they need to do to get back on track....

Oh shit. no please...no not Stephen A
lol

Van fleet is out (had surgery on his thumb)

Baynes is still out for Boston (foot)

As we watch this much anticipated game tonight, let's stay positive throughout the game. Sooner or later a Celtics win in Toronto has to happen. Why not tonight?

Good post dboss. Get's right to the heart of the issues at hand. I do think that Stevens has tried every lineup possible to jump start this team. I do think Jaylen has been given the short end of the stick here. He belongs on the court, Maybe Morris goes to the bench since he is struggling offensively lately. Putting up a strong defensive start could be something this team needs.

Tatum is the first one off the court in the first quarter, maybe a change there would jump start him quicker.

I don't pretend to even begin to have any idea what to do to push these guys other than to go to the locker room and give them a good knock in the head!!!!!
I do know that they are capable of so much more than they are showing. This has to be disappointing to Danny since he has gone out of his way to build a strong powerful team.

I am tired of the "kid" excuse. There are "kids" all over the NBA who are playing terrific basketball with half the team these guys have Grow up, show everyone you have screwed up, and finally play the kind of ball
you are all capable of

All those in favor of sending Rosalie into the locker room for a good seeing to please say Aye!!  Now I wouldn't want to be in there but would love to see what comes out!  She would fix everything for sure!  Thank you, Rosalie, for taking this one for the team!

db

P.S.  Wow!  Just saw this is a B2B game tonight with Portland at home tomorrow!  DOH!!! Now THAT'S a wake up call!

If we did not believe that this team had the ability to win the frustration would be easier to accept.

If they had come away with a one point win instead of a one point loss against the Bucks the conversation would be different.

I fully expect the Celtics to come out tonight with the highest level of resolve. The motivation to play well does not require fabrication. Everybody needs to do their job and do it well.

Let's cheer our guys on tonight through the ebb and flow of the game.

As mrkleen09 constantly reminds us...patience!

exactly dboss, but there are so many who have lost the ability to accept things as they are and move on. I will hate the day that the blame game takes over and ruins this team, they are too good for that.

I think the excitement of the preseason has alot to do with what is happening here. I refuse to give up, I think the light will go on!!! So I will wait for that glare to come! And when it does, it will be rewarding as hell.

dboss wrote:I want to clarify something before someone's head explodes.

The Boston Celtics are perhaps the deepest team talent wise in the NBA.  They have 3 or 4 guys on this team that are rotation players but they have starter level talent.  Playing this deep rotation in traditional rotation roles may need to change.  

For example there are some teams where Aron Baynes should be starting because we need a more physical presence in our frontline.  How many folks disagree with that?  Players play better against some team better than they play against others teams.

In my previous post I suggested that Marcus Smart should come off the bench because he has played poorly against Toronto in 3 games.  Five points per game is below average even for his below average scoring.  If you dig a little deeper you will see that there are some teams that Marcus does not play well against for whatever reason.  It is the same for every player on this team.  There are teams they underperform against.

Indiana, 2 games, average is 2.5 points, 6 assists and 1 rebound and 20% from the field.   Milwaukee  3 games average is 5 points, 1.7 assists and 4 rebounds and 25% from the field.  Toronto 3 games, average 4 points, 3 assists and 3.7 rebounds and 31% from the field. Philadelphia 3 games, average 7 points, 3 assists, 3.7 rebounds and 27% from the field.

Compare those numbers to those of Jaylen Brown

Indiana 2 games, average 17 points, 1.5 assists , 7 rebounds and 46% filed goal
Milwaukee, 2 games, average 18 points, 2.5 assists, 6 rebounds and 61% field goal
Philadelphia 3 games, average 7.7 points, 2 assists, 3 rebounds 36% field goal
Toronto 3 games, average 9 points, 0 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 33% field goal.

These 4 teams are all ahead of us in the EC.  They represent the best of the competition in the East.

In head to head matchups Brown has been more productive than Smart against the top 4 teams in the conference.  That is the reason why I would not hesitate to shake up the lineup from time to time depending on the matchups.

There is a big difference in beating a quality opponent than there is in beating a scrub team although Boston has more than their share of losses this year against really bad teams.  When Boston made the change to their starting lineup the results looks spectacular like that 8 game winning streak against 8 dreadful teams.  Everybody got fat stats, everybody looked good.  Those matchups should not have  established a peaking order on this team.

There are players on the bench like Brown and Hayward that are better than some starters.  Not starting better players to achieve better matchups is one thing but limiting their playing time is atrocious and unjustified mismanagement of key assets.

All year long we have scratched our heads trying to figure out what the problem is.  Just maybe this is the problem.  

Brad Stevens has mismanaged this team since the beginning of the season.  He over-reacted when Brown was struggling earlier and he gave up on GH who was also struggling.   Now he is stuck with a lineup that gets most of the minutes but cannot seem to win.  He may want to retrace his steps to find out what was lost in the process.  My suggestion to him would be to get both Brown and Hayward some starting assignments when the matchups look more favorable.

Dboss - you do realize that you are using analytics to figure out optimal line ups against specific teams right? Just teasing - I understand which part of analytics you think Stevens over-relies on...

AYE!

dbrown4 wrote:All those in favor of sending Rosalie into the locker room for a good seeing to please say Aye!!  Now I wouldn't want to be in there but would love to see what comes out!  She would fix everything for sure!  Thank you, Rosalie, for taking this one for the team!

db

P.S.  Wow!  Just saw this is a B2B game tonight with Portland at home tomorrow!  DOH!!!  Now THAT'S a wake up call!

Shamrock1000 wrote:

dboss wrote:I want to clarify something before someone's head explodes.

The Boston Celtics are perhaps the deepest team talent wise in the NBA.  They have 3 or 4 guys on this team that are rotation players but they have starter level talent.  Playing this deep rotation in traditional rotation roles may need to change.  

For example there are some teams where Aron Baynes should be starting because we need a more physical presence in our frontline.  How many folks disagree with that?  Players play better against some team better than they play against others teams.

In my previous post I suggested that Marcus Smart should come off the bench because he has played poorly against Toronto in 3 games.  Five points per game is below average even for his below average scoring.  If you dig a little deeper you will see that there are some teams that Marcus does not play well against for whatever reason.  It is the same for every player on this team.  There are teams they underperform against.

Indiana, 2 games, average is 2.5 points, 6 assists and 1 rebound and 20% from the field.   Milwaukee  3 games average is 5 points, 1.7 assists and 4 rebounds and 25% from the field.  Toronto 3 games, average 4 points, 3 assists and 3.7 rebounds and 31% from the field. Philadelphia 3 games, average 7 points, 3 assists, 3.7 rebounds and 27% from the field.

Compare those numbers to those of Jaylen Brown

Indiana 2 games, average 17 points, 1.5 assists , 7 rebounds and 46% filed goal
Milwaukee, 2 games, average 18 points, 2.5 assists, 6 rebounds and 61% field goal
Philadelphia 3 games, average 7.7 points, 2 assists, 3 rebounds 36% field goal
Toronto 3 games, average 9 points, 0 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 33% field goal.

These 4 teams are all ahead of us in the EC.  They represent the best of the competition in the East.

In head to head matchups Brown has been more productive than Smart against the top 4 teams in the conference.  That is the reason why I would not hesitate to shake up the lineup from time to time depending on the matchups.

There is a big difference in beating a quality opponent than there is in beating a scrub team although Boston has more than their share of losses this year against really bad teams.  When Boston made the change to their starting lineup the results looks spectacular like that 8 game winning streak against 8 dreadful teams.  Everybody got fat stats, everybody looked good.  Those matchups should not have  established a peaking order on this team.

There are players on the bench like Brown and Hayward that are better than some starters.  Not starting better players to achieve better matchups is one thing but limiting their playing time is atrocious and unjustified mismanagement of key assets.

All year long we have scratched our heads trying to figure out what the problem is.  Just maybe this is the problem.  

Brad Stevens has mismanaged this team since the beginning of the season.  He over-reacted when Brown was struggling earlier and he gave up on GH who was also struggling.   Now he is stuck with a lineup that gets most of the minutes but cannot seem to win.  He may want to retrace his steps to find out what was lost in the process.  My suggestion to him would be to get both Brown and Hayward some starting assignments when the matchups look more favorable.

Dboss - you do realize that you are using analytics to figure out optimal line ups against specific teams right? Just teasing - I understand which part of analytics you think Stevens over-relies on...

Rock you see that..

I have a degree in Economics with a minor in statistics from UMass Boston. I spent years in the insurance industry as an analyst measuring frequency ratios and developing relativity curves. I am not remotely opposed to analytics. But I have a profound understanding that the human element when included as a variable will always bring those analytics into question.

I am a believer that a cookie cutter can only replicate the same outcome.

dboss wrote:

Shamrock1000 wrote:

dboss wrote:I want to clarify something before someone's head explodes.

The Boston Celtics are perhaps the deepest team talent wise in the NBA.  They have 3 or 4 guys on this team that are rotation players but they have starter level talent.  Playing this deep rotation in traditional rotation roles may need to change.  

For example there are some teams where Aron Baynes should be starting because we need a more physical presence in our frontline.  How many folks disagree with that?  Players play better against some team better than they play against others teams.

In my previous post I suggested that Marcus Smart should come off the bench because he has played poorly against Toronto in 3 games.  Five points per game is below average even for his below average scoring.  If you dig a little deeper you will see that there are some teams that Marcus does not play well against for whatever reason.  It is the same for every player on this team.  There are teams they underperform against.

Indiana, 2 games, average is 2.5 points, 6 assists and 1 rebound and 20% from the field.   Milwaukee  3 games average is 5 points, 1.7 assists and 4 rebounds and 25% from the field.  Toronto 3 games, average 4 points, 3 assists and 3.7 rebounds and 31% from the field. Philadelphia 3 games, average 7 points, 3 assists, 3.7 rebounds and 27% from the field.

Compare those numbers to those of Jaylen Brown

Indiana 2 games, average 17 points, 1.5 assists , 7 rebounds and 46% filed goal
Milwaukee, 2 games, average 18 points, 2.5 assists, 6 rebounds and 61% field goal
Philadelphia 3 games, average 7.7 points, 2 assists, 3 rebounds 36% field goal
Toronto 3 games, average 9 points, 0 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 33% field goal.

These 4 teams are all ahead of us in the EC.  They represent the best of the competition in the East.

In head to head matchups Brown has been more productive than Smart against the top 4 teams in the conference.  That is the reason why I would not hesitate to shake up the lineup from time to time depending on the matchups.

There is a big difference in beating a quality opponent than there is in beating a scrub team although Boston has more than their share of losses this year against really bad teams.  When Boston made the change to their starting lineup the results looks spectacular like that 8 game winning streak against 8 dreadful teams.  Everybody got fat stats, everybody looked good.  Those matchups should not have  established a peaking order on this team.

There are players on the bench like Brown and Hayward that are better than some starters.  Not starting better players to achieve better matchups is one thing but limiting their playing time is atrocious and unjustified mismanagement of key assets.

All year long we have scratched our heads trying to figure out what the problem is.  Just maybe this is the problem.  

Brad Stevens has mismanaged this team since the beginning of the season.  He over-reacted when Brown was struggling earlier and he gave up on GH who was also struggling.   Now he is stuck with a lineup that gets most of the minutes but cannot seem to win.  He may want to retrace his steps to find out what was lost in the process.  My suggestion to him would be to get both Brown and Hayward some starting assignments when the matchups look more favorable.

Dboss - you do realize that you are using analytics to figure out optimal line ups against specific teams right? Just teasing - I understand which part of analytics you think Stevens over-relies on...

Rock you see that..

I have a degree in Economics  with a minor in statistics from UMass Boston.  I spent years in the insurance industry as an analyst measuring frequency ratios and developing relativity curves.   I am not remotely opposed to analytics.  But I have a profound understanding that the human element when included as a variable will always bring those analytics into question.

I am a believer that a cookie cutter can only replicate the same outcome.

Interesting Dboss. I am a physicist. Math is the language of physics, so I suppose I am biased towards quantitative approaches to problem solving. Statistics, albeit of a slightly different variety, are a part of our toolkit for extracting meaningful information from complex noisy data. That being said, even in my own field I occasionally see statistics misapplied and misinterpreted, and this is by people who should know better. When I see these untrained sports writers, talking heads, and bloggers trying to use stats, I often absolutely cringe. My guess is that most of the analytics guys actually employed by teams know their stuff, i.e. they understand the underlying assumptions and limitations of both their data and their interpretation of that data. It is the writers and bloggers who carve up data sets and then extract a stat to support their point that drive me nuts. I will say that folks on this site, whether or not they have any formal quantitative training, have a pretty decent sense of the reliability of stats and analytics; it is never wise to casually dismiss common sense.

I wonder what Red would say if approached by Stevens talking analytics!!!!! Boy, that would be a conversation. I can hear Red now:

IT'S GODDAMN BASKETBALL!!!! WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!!!!!

Different times, different ways, same ball, same court!

RosalieTCeltics wrote:I wonder what Red would say if approached by Stevens talking analytics!!!!! Boy, that would be a conversation.   I can hear Red now:

IT'S GODDAMN BASKETBALL!!!! WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!!!!!  

Different times, different ways, same ball, same court!

Haha Rosalie! My guess is that Red would take any advantage he could get, whether the information came from advanced analytics, or from a disgruntled ex-girlfriend of an opposing player....

Rock I could not agree with you more.

For example how do you really measure the impact of a player like Marcus Smart if you only use productivity to measure that impact when we know that his very presence on the floor is an overall + factor?  Should net ratings be used?  What if the positive net ratings have been greatly impacted by the quality of opponents?  

That is really difficult.  I think the stimulus for me to look closer at how certain players match up against certain teams comes from years of head scratching in trying to figure out why a team like the NE Patriots put in place different packages every game based on who they are playing.  This is a real touchy situation because basketball only has 5 guys on the court together at any time.  Even a subtle change can disrupt continuity.  

What we do know is that coach Stevens has recognized the need to alter his lineups and the most obvious example is when he has started Aron Baynes.  He has not done that like he did last year because for one thing Baynes has been nicked up quick a bit.  

Stevens has tried to establish set rotations but unfortunately the inconsistencies game to game are still there.

Our results should dictate how the team moves forward.

So my advocating for a change to the starting lineup is based on the inconsistent play that we have seen all year.  

I guess this sounds like a call for more analytics but it is also a call for common sense.   It is also a call to dig a little deeper into statistics to better understand what they are telling us.

RosalieTCeltics wrote:I wonder what Red would say if approached by Stevens talking analytics!!!!! Boy, that would be a conversation.   I can hear Red now:

IT'S GODDAMN BASKETBALL!!!! WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!!!!!  

Different times, different ways, same ball, same court!

Rosalie

Basketball is such a beautiful game!

dboss wrote:Rock I could not agree with you more.

For example how do you really measure the impact of a player like Marcus Smart if you only use productivity to measure that impact when we know that his very presence on the floor is an overall + factor?  Should net ratings be used?  What if the positive net ratings have been greatly impacted by the quality of opponents?  

That is really difficult.  I think the stimulus for me to look closer at how certain players match up against certain teams comes from years of head scratching in trying to figure out why a team like the NE Patriots put in place different packages every game based on who they are playing.  This is a real touchy situation because basketball only has 5 guys on the court together at any time.  Even a subtle change can disrupt continuity.  

What we do know is that coach Stevens has recognized the need to alter his lineups and the most obvious example is when he has started Aron Baynes.  He has not done that like he did last year because for one thing Baynes has been nicked up quick a bit.  

Stevens has tried to establish set rotations but unfortunately the inconsistencies game to game are still there.

Our results should dictate how the team moves forward.

So my advocating for a change to the starting lineup is based on the inconsistent play that we have seen all year.  

I guess this sounds like a call for more analytics but it is also a call for common sense.   It is also a call to dig a little deeper into statistics to better understand what they are telling us.

Sounds like a well-informed, balanced approach to getting the most out of a team....

and Portland is a playoff team in the west right now and playing pretty well...this stretch will make or break this team

Toronto
Portland- tomorrow
Washington
Houston
GS- AT GS!
Sacramento- at the Kings

I think all but Washington on playoff teams right now (maybe the Kings have dropped out I'm not sure ).

that's a tough stretch I think.

dboss wrote:

RosalieTCeltics wrote:I wonder what Red would say if approached by Stevens talking analytics!!!!! Boy, that would be a conversation.   I can hear Red now:

IT'S GODDAMN BASKETBALL!!!! WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!!!!!  

Different times, different ways, same ball, same court!

Rosalie

Basketball is such a beautiful game!  

Well it use to be. I hate the three pointer now as much as I liked it when they put it in. Larry Bird was right , he hated the 3 pointer too. Too many "brands" and "legacies" for me.