Re: Slice Up The Minutes

by **NYCelt** Sat Aug 28, 2021 12:27 pm

With a lot of minutes to slice and dice I'll leave it to those who want to really dive into specifics to closely assign expected time. I'll simply give an average, or average range. I'll leave some pretty wide bumpers on several of these until we get a sample at least several games long. With a long way to go to trim to 15 or fewer players, I'm giving my best guess as to who sticks.

J Tatum 35 MPG Avg
J Brown 34 MPG Avg
M Smart 32-34 MPG Avg
J Richardson 22-25 MPG Avg
R Williams 15-20 MPG Avg
A Horford 15-20 MPG Avg
D Schroder 15-20 MPG Avg
P Pritchard 10-12 MPG Avg
E Kanter 8-10 MPG Avg
A Nesmith 8-10 MPG Avg
K Dunn 5-8 MPG Avg
J Parker <8 MPG Avg
B Fernando <5 MPG Avg
R Langford <5 MPG Avg
C Edwards <5 MPG Avg

by **dboss** Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:08 pm

NYCelt wrote:With a lot of minutes to slice and dice I'll leave it to those who want to really dive into specifics to closely assign expected time. I'll simply give an average, or average range. I'll leave some pretty wide bumpers on several of these until we get a sample at least several games long. With a long way to go to trim to 15 or fewer players, I'm giving my best guess as to who sticks.

J Tatum 35 MPG Avg
J Brown 34 MPG Avg
M Smart 32-34 MPG Avg
J Richardson 25 MPG Avg
R Williams 15-20 MPG Avg
A Horford 15-20 MPG Avg
D Schroder 15-20 MPG Avg
P Pritchard 10-12 MPG Avg
E Kanter 8-10 MPG Avg
A Nesmith 8-10 MPG Avg
K Dunn 5-8 MPG Avg
J Parker <8 MPG Avg
B Fernando <5 MPG Avg
R Langford <5 MPG Avg
C Edwards <5 MPG Avg

NYCelt

And "What About Bob"? Does Bob get any slice of the pie? lol

I just looked something up. The last season that the Celtics had a player that played in 82 games.

It was the 2015-16 season and our iron man was none other than IT. It is a pretty safe bet that playing in all 82 regular season game is highly unlikely. Guy are going to get nicked up and unfortunately I do think we will continue to see guys catching Covid and missing games because of the protocols.

My make believe exercise does have a few layers of historical consideration. But it is hard to factor in the coach's decision impact. For example, what if Ime favors big lineups? Well, centers would probably play more minutes.

Preseason games should give us a better idea about the different combinations we will see and for how long.

by **bobheckler** Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:58 pm

Minutes-per-game is, in my opinion, a shallow stat if viewed alone because it doesn't take into account how many games. Last year Kemba averaged 31.8mpg. Not bad, right? But he only played in 43 out of 72 games. He played a total of 1369 minutes last year. Payton Pritchard played 1268 minutes, but only averaged 19.2mpg. The difference is that PP played in 66 games. If you just looked at their mpg you'd say that Kemba had a vastly larger impact on the team than Pritchard but we all complained about how often Kemba was out for "maintenance" and, in the end, he only played 101 more minutes than the rook. So, again, in my opinion, the total number of minutes players play is more revealing than how many mpg. It tells us more about wear-and-tear as well as how much their coach trusted them in the games they were able to play.

Not including OTs there are a total of 19,680 player minutes in an 82 game season (48mpg X 5 players = 240pg X 82 games). 2020 stats are actuals, 2021 are my projections (of course).

Player..................................2020 minutes..........2020mpg (games)..........2021 minutes..........2021mpg (games)

Jayson Tatum.......................2290......................35.8 (64).......................2350......................32.6 (72)
Jaylen Brown.......................1999.......................34.5 (58).......................2300.....................31.9 (72)
Marcus Smart......................1581.......................32.9 (48).......................2000.....................30.8 (65)
Robert Williams....................952........................18.9 (52).......................1500......................23.1 (60)
Al Horford (OKC)..................782........................27.9 (28).......................1500......................27.6 (65)
Enes Kanter (POR)...............1758.......................24.4 (72).......................1275......................17.0 (75)
Josh Richardson (DAL)..........1790.......................30.3 (59).......................1550......................25.0 (62)
Dennis Schroder (LAL)..........1956.......................32.1 (61)........................2000.....................27.8 (72)
Payton Pritchard..................1268.......................19.2 (66)........................1750......................23.3 (75)
Aaron Nesmith.....................669........................14.5 (46)........................1200......................17.6 (68)
Romeo Langford...................283........................15.7 (18)........................550.......................18.3 (30)
Grant Williams.....................1138.......................18.1 (63)........................900.......................16.4 (55)
Bruno Fernando (ATL)...........226.........................6.8 (33).........................500.......................10.0 (50)
Carsen Edwards...................276.........................8.9 (31)..........................220......................8.8 (25)
Jabari Parker (SAC + BOS)....165.........................13.8 (13)........................675......................16.8 (40)
Sam Hauser............................................................................................150.......................2.5 (12)
.............................................................................................................20,370

20,370 minutes is more than the 19,680 total, 690 more to be precise, but we also currently have 16 roster players and we won't have that many on Opening Night. If Parker is released there's 675, which would bring the total down to 19,695 and pretty much gets me there. If a player is out with COVID that would get us there, with the 10 day "sit out", even if it's Carsen Edwards. I'm also assuming that Enes Kanter, Josh Richardson and Dennis Schroder continue to be Iron Men. They played in a lot of games the last few games, missing very few. I have them playing fewer mpg than in past years because of the logjam at wing and in the back court, but a considerable number of games.

I also gave Kanter a lot of minutes because, in my opinion, Al Horford is not going to be playing 20mpg or anything like that. We are thin at 4 and he has always wanted to play 4, so here's his big chance to play most of his minutes there, which frees up minutes for Kanter at 5. He's an older player, true, but he has no injury history to speak of and played a lot of mpg in OKC, 27.9mpg, until they told him to stay home. That shows he can still play a lot if needed, and his body basically got the year off. That probably extended his career. A lot of people also want Grant Williams to have a seat. I did assign Grant fewer minutes than last year, even though it was an abbreviated season and this one is not, but he's a veteran now and we need help at 4, which is where I'd rather see him play anyway. Enough of that "smallball 5" bullshite. Bruno gets more minutes but is still behind Grant because of his much lesser experience (939 total NBA minutes for Bruno vs 2181 for Grant). Grant can also spread the floor with 3s and Bruno cannot (he took a total of 2 3pt fgas all last season). If we need rebounding we have Kanter. That puts Bruno 3rd behind Horford and Grant at 4, at least at the beginning of the season. Nesmith also took a big step up in minutes, but you can't take players who are used to few minutes and just say to them "ok, you're a 25mpg sub-starter now". They'll run out of gas because their bodies aren't used to that much game shape regardless of how young they are. So Bruno's minutes double and so does Nesmith's. The reason why I didn't give Nesmith more is because of the logjam at wing. He's, what, 3rd behind Jaylen and JRich? How many minutes are there for the 3rd player on a depth chart? Same with Bruno, he's a victim of the numbers.

I'm sure there will also be some people questioning why I reduced Jayson and Jaylen's minutes. It's because they don't need to play as many. Last year they had to compensate for the loss of offense because Kemba was a Ming vase and that meant heavier minutes. This year they have Schroder for offense and JRich for defense. They've also got a more seasoned 3Smith. And, c'mon, they're still both slated to play 32+mpg. It's not like I'm benching them.

There'll be another two-way player to join Hauser, they'll get 150-200 minutes total too, but this is all "Kentucky windage" here anyway. As I stated, a player entering COVID protocol, even if it's a false positive, will open up minutes for bench players or drive up the minutes of starters.

Bob

.

by **RosalieTCeltics** Sat Aug 28, 2021 5:02 pm

There is an interesting story on Celtics Blog comparing RWII to Al Jefferson in his final year before being part of the package that brought KG here. Kind of interesting. I remember how upset I was when Al got traded, he had made such strides. All I heard from my son was that I would change my thinking after watching KG a few games. He was so right. Is this what we might be looking forward to???? Improve this chip so that he is a highly desirable asset?

by **gyso** Sun Aug 29, 2021 10:02 am

bobheckler wrote:Minutes-per-game is, in my opinion, a shallow stat if viewed alone because it doesn't take into account how many games. Last year Kemba averaged 31.8mpg. Not bad, right? But he only played in 43 out of 72 games. He played a total of 1369 minutes last year. Payton Pritchard played 1268 minutes, but only averaged 19.2mpg. The difference is that PP played in 66 games. If you just looked at their mpg you'd say that Kemba had a vastly larger impact on the team than Pritchard but we all complained about how often Kemba was out for "maintenance" and, in the end, he only played 101 more minutes than the rook. So, again, in my opinion, the total number of minutes players play is more revealing than how many mpg. It tells us more about wear-and-tear as well as how much their coach trusted them in the games they were able to play.

Not including OTs there are a total of 19,680 player minutes in an 82 game season (48mpg X 5 players = 240pg X 82 games). 2020 stats are actuals, 2021 are my projections (of course).

Player..................................2020 minutes..........2020mpg (games)..........2021 minutes (games)..........2021mpg

Jayson Tatum.......................2290......................35.8 (64).......................2350 (72)...........................32.6
Jaylen Brown.......................1999.......................34.5 (58).......................2300 (72)...........................31.9
Marcus Smart......................1581.......................32.9 (48).......................2000 (65)...........................30.8
Robert Williams....................952........................18.9 (52).......................1500 (60)...........................23.1
Al Horford (OKC)..................782........................27.9 (28).......................1500 (65)...........................27.6
Enes Kanter (POR)...............1758.......................24.4 (72).......................1275 (75)...........................17.0
Josh Richardson (DAL)..........1790.......................30.3 (59).......................1550 (62)...........................25.0
Dennis Schroder (LAL)..........1956.......................32.1 (61)........................2000 (72)..........................27.8
Payton Pritchard..................1268.......................19.2 (66)........................1750 (75)...........................23.3
Aaron Nesmith.....................669........................14.5 (46)........................1200 (68)...........................17.6
Romeo Langford...................283........................15.7 (18)........................550 (30)............................18.3
Grant Williams.....................1138.......................18.1 (63)........................900 (55)............................16.4
Bruno Fernando (ATL)...........226.........................6.8 (33).........................500 (50)............................10.0
Carsen Edwards...................276.........................8.9 (31)..........................220 (25)............................8.8
Jabari Parker (SAC + BOS)....165.........................13.8 (13)........................675 (40)............................16.8
Sam Hauser............................................................................................150 (12)............................12.5
.............................................................................................................20,370

20,370 minutes is more than the 19,680 total, 690 more to be precise, but we also currently have 16 roster players and we won't have that many on Opening Night. If Parker is released there's 675, which would bring the total down to 19,695 and pretty much gets me there. If a player is out with COVID that would get us there, with the 10 day "sit out", even if it's Carsen Edwards. I'm also assuming that Enes Kanter, Josh Richardson and Dennis Schroder continue to be Iron Men. They played in a lot of games the last few games, missing very few. I have them playing fewer mpg than in past years because of the logjam at wing and in the back court, but a considerable number of games.

I also gave Kanter a lot of minutes because, in my opinion, Al Horford is not going to be playing 20mpg or anything like that. We are thin at 4 and he has always wanted to play 4, so here's his big chance to play most of his minutes there, which frees up minutes for Kanter at 5. He's an older player, true, but he has no injury history to speak of and played a lot of mpg in OKC, 27.9mpg, until they told him to stay home. That shows he can still play a lot if needed, and his body basically got the year off. That probably extended his career. A lot of people also want Grant Williams to have a seat. I did assign Grant fewer minutes than last year, even though it was an abbreviated season and this one is not, but he's a veteran now and we need help at 4, which is where I'd rather see him play anyway. Enough of that "smallball 5" bullshite. Bruno gets more minutes but is still behind Grant because of his much lesser experience (939 total NBA minutes for Bruno vs 2181 for Grant). Grant can also spread the floor with 3s and Bruno cannot (he took a total of 2 3pt fgas all last season). If we need rebounding we have Kanter. That puts Bruno 3rd behind Horford and Grant at 4, at least at the beginning of the season. Nesmith also took a big step up in minutes, but you can't take players who are used to few minutes and just say to them "ok, you're a 25mpg sub-starter now". They'll run out of gas because their bodies aren't used to that much game shape regardless of how young they are. So Bruno's minutes double and so does Nesmith's. The reason why I didn't give Nesmith more is because of the logjam at wing. He's, what, 3rd behind Jaylen and JRich? How many minutes are there for the 3rd player on a depth chart? Same with Bruno, he's a victim of the numbers.

I'm sure there will also be some people questioning why I reduced Jayson and Jaylen's minutes. It's because they don't need to play as many. Last year they had to compensate for the loss of offense because Kemba was a Ming vase and that meant heavier minutes. This year they have Schroder for offense and JRich for defense. They've also got a more seasoned 3Smith. And, c'mon, they're still both slated to play 32+mpg. It's not like I'm benching them.

There'll be another two-way player to join Hauser, they'll get 150-200 minutes total too, but this is all "Kentucky windage" here anyway. As I stated, a player entering COVID protocol, even if it's a false positive, will open up minutes for bench players or drive up the minutes of starters.

Bob

.

Bob,

Incredible work. This is exactly what I was trying to show in my very, very feeble attempt to explain this concept. When I wrote, "Use historical data and mix in some realistic expectations to arrive at your minutes per season for each player", you took that and ran with it. You broke it down to each player's contribution for games played, minutes played in those games and finally came to a MPG number for each player that now is in the proper context.

I was not surprised to see that the veterans on the team took the lion's share of the minutes. That is what they signed on for. The young guys will have to prove they deserve time on the floor, and there's a handful on the team that are in that category. I agree that expecting a couple of the young guys to double their minutes played and have them still be productive across that time is a fallacy.

In addition to the three Iron Men you listed above, I would offer up a fourth player for that list: Al Horford. I was surprised when I saw how, season after season, his minutes played were constantly in the 2000's. We all know what caused him to drop so much in the MPG category, and as you pointed out, he was getting almost starter's minutes before OKC shut him down for the season. Because he was out of the grind for a better part of the season, he got a new lease on life.

You have created an incredible template for how to divvy up the minutes played (and games played) for the entire roster. The fact that you were able to Manifest this on 8/28 was pretty cool as well! (Unrelated uncanceled TV show reference)

by **bobheckler** Sun Aug 29, 2021 10:23 am

gyso wrote:
bobheckler wrote:Minutes-per-game is, in my opinion, a shallow stat if viewed alone because it doesn't take into account how many games. Last year Kemba averaged 31.8mpg. Not bad, right? But he only played in 43 out of 72 games. He played a total of 1369 minutes last year. Payton Pritchard played 1268 minutes, but only averaged 19.2mpg. The difference is that PP played in 66 games. If you just looked at their mpg you'd say that Kemba had a vastly larger impact on the team than Pritchard but we all complained about how often Kemba was out for "maintenance" and, in the end, he only played 101 more minutes than the rook. So, again, in my opinion, the total number of minutes players play is more revealing than how many mpg. It tells us more about wear-and-tear as well as how much their coach trusted them in the games they were able to play.

Not including OTs there are a total of 19,680 player minutes in an 82 game season (48mpg X 5 players = 240pg X 82 games). 2020 stats are actuals, 2021 are my projections (of course).

Player..................................2020 minutes..........2020mpg (games)..........2021 minutes (games)..........2021mpg

Jayson Tatum.......................2290......................35.8 (64).......................2350 (72)...........................32.6
Jaylen Brown.......................1999.......................34.5 (58).......................2300 (72)...........................31.9
Marcus Smart......................1581.......................32.9 (48).......................2000 (65)...........................30.8
Robert Williams....................952........................18.9 (52).......................1500 (60)...........................23.1
Al Horford (OKC)..................782........................27.9 (28).......................1500 (65)...........................27.6
Enes Kanter (POR)...............1758.......................24.4 (72).......................1275 (75)...........................17.0
Josh Richardson (DAL)..........1790.......................30.3 (59).......................1550 (62)...........................25.0
Dennis Schroder (LAL)..........1956.......................32.1 (61)........................2000 (72)..........................27.8
Payton Pritchard..................1268.......................19.2 (66)........................1750 (75)...........................23.3
Aaron Nesmith.....................669........................14.5 (46)........................1200 (68)...........................17.6
Romeo Langford...................283........................15.7 (18)........................550 (30)............................18.3
Grant Williams.....................1138.......................18.1 (63)........................900 (55)............................16.4
Bruno Fernando (ATL)...........226.........................6.8 (33).........................500 (50)............................10.0
Carsen Edwards...................276.........................8.9 (31)..........................220 (25)............................8.8
Jabari Parker (SAC + BOS)....165.........................13.8 (13)........................675 (40)............................16.8
Sam Hauser............................................................................................150 (12)............................12.5
.............................................................................................................20,370

20,370 minutes is more than the 19,680 total, 690 more to be precise, but we also currently have 16 roster players and we won't have that many on Opening Night. If Parker is released there's 675, which would bring the total down to 19,695 and pretty much gets me there. If a player is out with COVID that would get us there, with the 10 day "sit out", even if it's Carsen Edwards. I'm also assuming that Enes Kanter, Josh Richardson and Dennis Schroder continue to be Iron Men. They played in a lot of games the last few games, missing very few. I have them playing fewer mpg than in past years because of the logjam at wing and in the back court, but a considerable number of games.

I also gave Kanter a lot of minutes because, in my opinion, Al Horford is not going to be playing 20mpg or anything like that. We are thin at 4 and he has always wanted to play 4, so here's his big chance to play most of his minutes there, which frees up minutes for Kanter at 5. He's an older player, true, but he has no injury history to speak of and played a lot of mpg in OKC, 27.9mpg, until they told him to stay home. That shows he can still play a lot if needed, and his body basically got the year off. That probably extended his career. A lot of people also want Grant Williams to have a seat. I did assign Grant fewer minutes than last year, even though it was an abbreviated season and this one is not, but he's a veteran now and we need help at 4, which is where I'd rather see him play anyway. Enough of that "smallball 5" bullshite. Bruno gets more minutes but is still behind Grant because of his much lesser experience (939 total NBA minutes for Bruno vs 2181 for Grant). Grant can also spread the floor with 3s and Bruno cannot (he took a total of 2 3pt fgas all last season). If we need rebounding we have Kanter. That puts Bruno 3rd behind Horford and Grant at 4, at least at the beginning of the season. Nesmith also took a big step up in minutes, but you can't take players who are used to few minutes and just say to them "ok, you're a 25mpg sub-starter now". They'll run out of gas because their bodies aren't used to that much game shape regardless of how young they are. So Bruno's minutes double and so does Nesmith's. The reason why I didn't give Nesmith more is because of the logjam at wing. He's, what, 3rd behind Jaylen and JRich? How many minutes are there for the 3rd player on a depth chart? Same with Bruno, he's a victim of the numbers.

I'm sure there will also be some people questioning why I reduced Jayson and Jaylen's minutes. It's because they don't need to play as many. Last year they had to compensate for the loss of offense because Kemba was a Ming vase and that meant heavier minutes. This year they have Schroder for offense and JRich for defense. They've also got a more seasoned 3Smith. And, c'mon, they're still both slated to play 32+mpg. It's not like I'm benching them.

There'll be another two-way player to join Hauser, they'll get 150-200 minutes total too, but this is all "Kentucky windage" here anyway. As I stated, a player entering COVID protocol, even if it's a false positive, will open up minutes for bench players or drive up the minutes of starters.

Bob

.

Bob,

Incredible work. This is exactly what I was trying to show in my very, very feeble attempt to explain this concept. When I wrote, "Use historical data and mix in some realistic expectations to arrive at your minutes per season for each player", you took that and ran with it. You broke it down to each player's contribution for games played, minutes played in those games and finally came to a MPG number for each player that now is in the proper context.

I was not surprised to see that the veterans on the team took the lion's share of the minutes. That is what they signed on for. The young guys will have to prove they deserve time on the floor, and there's a handful on the team that are in that category. I agree that expecting a couple of the young guys to double their minutes played and have them still be productive across that time is a fallacy.

In addition to the three Iron Men you listed above, I would offer up a fourth player for that list: Al Horford. I was surprised when I saw how, season after season, his minutes played were constantly in the 2000's. We all know what caused him to drop so much in the MPG category, and as you pointed out, he was getting almost starter's minutes before OKC shut him down for the season. Because he was out of the grind for a better part of the season, he got a new lease on life.

You have created an incredible template for how to divvy up the minutes played (and games played) for the entire roster. The fact that you were able to Manifest this on 8/28 was pretty cool as well! (Unrelated uncanceled TV show reference)

gyso,

Thanks. I found the effort provided me with some clarity. Upon looking at it this morning I made some changes for presentation consistency. I can be a bit anal sometimes. This has nothing to do with me being an asshole, that's just bonus.

Speaking of templates, anybody who wants to cut-and-paste what I did and put in their own 2021 projections please feel free to do so. In fact, that would make it easier for us to talk apples-to-apples.

Bob

.

by **dboss** Sun Aug 29, 2021 2:18 pm

RosalieTCeltics wrote:These numbers could all get blown out of the water if a couple of players end up playing so well that you cannot keep them on the bench. Nesmith and Pritchard for instance, Bruno is another.
I have to say that I see a trade at some point combining Dunn, Grant Williams, and maybe Edwards, for someone, anyone. I believe Williams time on the Celtics is short lived.

Rosalie

I very much agree with your comments about Nesmith and Pritchard. Brad did not add any shooters to this team other than 2 way guy Sam Hauser. Last season's standard for 3 point shooting was 37.8%.

Richardson and Schroder were below standard in making 3 point shots. PP was fantastic right out of the gates and AN proved that he can make them as well. That tells me that those two guys are going to get more minutes this year. I have JR and DS logging 28 MPG. Those two have been 30 MPG guys the previous 2 seasons. They both do a lot of things very well but making the 3 ball has not been one of them.

Brad essentially replaced 2 very good offensive players with 2 very good defensive player neither of whom has a history of being great shooter. Brad would not have done this unless he had high expectation for PP and AN.

I think those factors enhance the opportunities for them

There will be 82 pies to slice up every game and those slices are sure to change. There are no pre-sliced pies coming out of the oven.

A side note on Dennis Schroder. I read some reports that characterized him as being "selfish" It seems quite logical that Brad spoke with AH about DS before making a decision to sign him.

by **dboss** Mon Sep 06, 2021 11:54 am

With the trade for JH I think he gets 15-18 MPG. GW continues to slide down the depth chart.

My starting 5 RW JT JB MS and AN.

Off the bench DS, AH, JR, PP and JH.

by **cowens/oldschool** Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:02 pm

dboss wrote:With the trade for JH I think he gets 15-18 MPG. GW continues to slide down the depth chart.

My starting 5 RW JT JB MS and AN.

Off the bench DS, AH, JR, PP and JH.

I like AN starting too, and if JH can just get his 3 point stroke going he has the kind of movement based game that can be a productive stretch 4 in our system.

by **dboss** Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:13 pm

cowens/oldschool wrote:
dboss wrote:With the trade for JH I think he gets 15-18 MPG. GW continues to slide down the depth chart.

My starting 5 RW JT JB MS and AN.

Off the bench DS, AH, JR, PP and JH.

I like AN starting too, and if JH can just get his 3 point stroke going he has the kind of movement based game that can be a productive stretch 4 in our system.

Yes

I would suggest that folks check out some highlights.

by **cowens/oldschool** Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:43 pm

dboss wrote:
cowens/oldschool wrote:
dboss wrote:With the trade for JH I think he gets 15-18 MPG. GW continues to slide down the depth chart.

My starting 5 RW JT JB MS and AN.

Off the bench DS, AH, JR, PP and JH.

I like AN starting too, and if JH can just get his 3 point stroke going he has the kind of movement based game that can be a productive stretch 4 in our system.
Yes

I would suggest that folks check out some highlights.

I did guy also dunks effortlessly

by **dboss** Tue Sep 07, 2021 8:14 am

3 weeks out from training camp. I'm hyped.

We are still waiting for the other 2 way roster spot to be filled. Anybody got a candidate in mind?

Two guys entering make it or break it years. RL and GW. I am not convinced that Romeo can carve out a viable rotation role. Grant has yet to bring anything new to the table. Every year good young player work on a new move or something.

When you have a deep roster and 2 or 3 guys cannot get minutes, there are two ways to help them break a sweat.

by **cowens/oldschool** Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:40 am

GWill is kind of like Barkley without the all world attributes, other players also without great strength and athleticism could still develop at least one skill that can make them useful, he has to find it. Me I’m oldschool, I like my 4/PF to at least be a good rebounder and physical presence if he’s going to get any minutes.

by **dboss** Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:55 am

cowens/oldschool wrote:GWill is kind of like Barkley without the all world attributes, other players also without great strength and athleticism could still develop at least one skill that can make them useful, he has to find it. Me I’m oldschool, I like my 4/PF to at least be a good rebounder and physical presence if he’s going to get any minutes.

Maybe his most unlikely skill will be to knock down catch and shoot jumpers from the corner. I thought he would be a real tough rebounder that could use his girth and positioning techniques to get us maybe 5 boards per game. So far it seems as though he is not able to make up for his lack of athleticism. Defensively, he is not a bad player and does a fairly good job in anticipating rotational responsibilities. He still will get beat off the bounce like everyone else.

I hope he will get an opportunity to compete for minutes at PF. I do not think Brad helped him much by trying to turn him into a small ball 5. A.k.a Draymond Green. Quickness is a prerequisite for playing a small ball 5 position.

by **bobheckler** Tue Sep 07, 2021 10:17 am

Updated for new roster:

Player..................................2020 minutes..........2020mpg (games)..........2021 minutes..........2021mpg (games)

Jayson Tatum.......................2290......................35.8 (64).......................2350......................32.6 (72)
Jaylen Brown.......................1999.......................34.5 (58).......................2100.....................31.8 (66)
Marcus Smart......................1581.......................32.9 (48).......................1600.....................29.1 (55)
Robert Williams....................952........................18.9 (52).......................1500......................23.1 (60)
Al Horford (OKC)..................782........................27.9 (28).......................1500......................23.1 (65)
Enes Kanter (POR)...............1758.......................24.4 (72).......................1275......................17.0 (75)
Josh Richardson (DAL)..........1790.......................30.3 (59).......................1550......................25.0 (62)
Dennis Schroder (LAL)..........1956.......................32.1 (61).......................2000......................27.8 (72)
Payton Pritchard..................1268.......................19.2 (66)........................1750......................23.3 (75)
Aaron Nesmith.....................669........................14.5 (46)........................1200......................17.6 (68)
Romeo Langford...................283........................15.7 (18)........................550.......................18.3 (30)
Grant Williams.....................1138.......................18.1 (63)........................600.......................10.9 (55)
Bruno Fernando (ATL)...........226.........................6.8 (33).........................500.......................10.0 (50)
Juan Hernangomez (MIN)......900.........................17.3 (52).......................1100......................17.8. (62)
Jabari Parker (SAC + BOS)....165.........................13.8 (13)........................675......................16.8 (40)
Sam Hauser............................................................................................150.......................2.5 (12)
.............................................................................................................20,200

I reduced Jaylen's # of games. I looked at how many he played last year and decided I assumed he'd be healthier this year. He might not get injured, but COVID, etc...? So, I took him from 72 games down to 66, with a corresponding reduction in total minutes so he had about the same number of mpg.

I also reduced the number of games Smart plays. I took his 2020 games and adjusted it for the expected 82-game 2021-2022 season and came up with 55 instead of 66. That reduced his mpg a little but he's still playing starter minutes. I just remembered how often his style of play gets him dinged up.

I reduced GWill's numbers to make room for Hernangomez. I also reduced Horford's minutes. This was a tough call for me.
He is a very different player than Hernangomez, so we're not just swapping out age for youth. I'm replacing talent and skills for raw energy and athleticism. That makes me a little uncomfortable ("old age and treachery will always beat youth and exuberance" - David Mamet. Look at the team they are assembling in LA. LeBron isn't surrounding himself with doddering oldsters just because they can relate to the same memes) but I think Hernangomez will fill a role that Al can't fill and that's run the floor. Al is now strictly a half court player and I think Ime wants more uptempo play.

Bottom line: I had to make some assumptions and decisions to get the total playing minutes to within spitting distance of 19, 680.

PREVIOUS VERSION:

Player..................................2020 minutes..........2020mpg (games)..........2021 minutes..........2021mpg (games)

Jayson Tatum.......................2290......................35.8 (64).......................2350......................32.6 (72)
Jaylen Brown.......................1999.......................34.5 (58).......................2300.....................31.9 (72)
Marcus Smart......................1581.......................32.9 (48).......................2000.....................30.8 (65)
Robert Williams....................952........................18.9 (52).......................1500......................23.1 (60)
Al Horford (OKC)..................782........................27.9 (28).......................1500......................27.6 (65)
Enes Kanter (POR)...............1758.......................24.4 (72).......................1275......................17.0 (75)
Josh Richardson (DAL)..........1790.......................30.3 (59).......................1550......................25.0 (62)
Dennis Schroder (LAL)..........1956.......................32.1 (61)........................2000.....................27.8 (72)
Payton Pritchard..................1268.......................19.2 (66)........................1750......................23.3 (75)
Aaron Nesmith.....................669........................14.5 (46)........................1200......................17.6 (68)
Romeo Langford...................283........................15.7 (18)........................550.......................18.3 (30)
Grant Williams.....................1138.......................18.1 (63)........................900.......................16.4 (55)
Bruno Fernando (ATL)...........226.........................6.8 (33).........................500.......................10.0 (50)
Carsen Edwards...................276.........................8.9 (31)..........................220......................8.8 (25)
Jabari Parker (SAC + BOS)....165.........................13.8 (13)........................675......................16.8 (40)
Sam Hauser............................................................................................150.......................2.5 (12)
.............................................................................................................20,370

Bob

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