What's the Number One Factor in this Series from a Celtics' Fan's Point of View?

Not two or three or four considerations. The number one pivotal factor in determining whether the Celtics can win.

My own entry: the foul situation.

We all know that the Celtics' biggest advantage is probably up front, and I'd put both KG and Bass in that equation. This duo simply cannot compromise that advantage (particularly with KG likely to have the luxury of playing a little free safety on the defensive end) by relegating themselves to the bench because of fouls—particularly in the first quarter.

The same holds true for Rondo. If he plays the way he can, he could be a terrible matchup for the PGs of the Heat. But he has to stay on the floor, probably for something like 40 MPG.

The wing positions are where the Heat obviously hold a huge advantage. But, ironically, the wing positions are where the Celtics are strongest in terms of depth. (I'm talking only about numbers of available players, not their abilities relative to Lebron and Dwayne.) In Pierce, Ray, Pietrus, Sasha, Marquis and Keyon (who I hope is totally recovered from his illness by now), they have 30 fouls to expend per game (although I obviously hope it doesn't come to that), and they have four pretty decent defensive players to fill in if Paul and/or Ray gets into foul trouble.

And, no, I didn't put Moore in with this group because I believe he will play only in case of catastrophic injury or garbage time. Regardless of whether he can shoot (and he often needs a prolonged stint on the floor to get warmed up), he would be a playoff babe in the woods, and he might as well be in a kettle of boiling water for Wade to cannibalize.

In this series, it's vitally important that Doc operate from a position of strength as much as possible. I view fouls as one factor that could undermine his options and therefore his strength.

I'm editing this message because I probably should make the obligatory observation that getting James and/or Wade into foul trouble would be huge. I had overlooked this possibility because I think it is extremely remote for reasons that have been discussed at length on this forum.

What say the rest of you?

Sam

Sam I agree about the fouls. They are huge and the Indiana series James had a whopping 4 fouls in 6 games. I don't see us getting any advantage from a foul standpoint. We just have to foul with the right people at the right time. I am for activating Williams and using Steamer, Hollin, and Williams and everytime someone goes inside we put a hard foul on them.

The other huge concern to me is turnovers. If we are careless with the ball we will not win the game. If our TO's let them get out and run we are in huge trouble. If we handle the rock right I see no reason we can't stay in the game and even steal 4 of them.

sam,

I agree, fouls are key. Specifically I'm thinking about Rondo. We have more depth at wing to throw at LBJ than probably any other team in the league. In fact, Danny has made it clear he considers the league to be a "wing-dominated league" now, rather than a "center-dominated league" and has stocked up on wing players as a result. With the loss of Bradley, though, we're thin at 2 and we're going up against one of the best (certainly the best left standing) SGs in the league. You opined on another thread that you wouldn't be surprised to see Rondo playing Wade some. If Wade gets Rondo to pick up some quick fouls we might be in deep doodoo because our offense becomes very awkward when he's out.

The #2 priority, if fouls are #1, is shooting. We have to hit our shots. We can't run with these guys.

bob

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Sam

Got to slow the game down a lot. I know we don;t like to see Rondo walk and pound but he may need to do this more than normal, whatever normal is. Break when we have an advantage otherwise make Bron and Wade play some defense. Plus side, the less possessions the less chance of fouls too.

Get back on D even if it means giving up a potential offensive board, which we get few to many anyway. Like Bob said we cannot run with these guys!

Keeping the score in the 75-80 range gives us a good chance.

Bob,

The Heat (specifically Lebron) are very strong in transition defense, so the Celts will have to be more selective than normal in being opportunistic in transition. Beat's right about the Celtics perhaps having to slow down their attack. However, I believe "slow down" should mean a higher percentage than usual of halfcourt sets. It should NOT mean that Rondo shouldn't push the ball to get into the half court set a.s.a.p.

To say the the Celtics offense becomes very awkward when Rondo's out is to understate the fact. It's a law of basketball physics. A body in motion tends to stop when Rondo leaves the game.

It seems inevitable that the Heat are just going to pound the ball to the hoop.
Among other advantages, that's one of the good strategies against the zone, if the Celtics do, indeed, try zoning. It'll be interesting to see what (if any) counter measures Doc might have up his sleeve to combat the penetration of the Heat. I wonder if Wayne Embry (the human wall) is in any kind of shape.

Sam

One of the things I have noticed is that our spacing on perimeter switches hasn't always been that good. On numerous occasions I've seen the dribbler split the defenders and penetrate, because we assumed he was going to keep going across the court. If we do that against these guys Wade and LBJ will drive it right down our throats for buckets +1.

If they can beat us with jumpshots, they deserve to win.

As far as LBJ's defense, I think he's an extraordinary help defender and chase defender. He will come from the 3pt line down to block a layup in the halfcourt or run you down fullcourt and block you from behind on a breakaway better than just about anybody I've ever seen. Let's see how he does when he's defending the ball and has to move laterally while running into multiple picks.

bob

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Avoiding foul trouble and good shooting are imperative, but I think the key to winning is Doc's substituting patterns. We can't play the last 6 minutes with exhausted starters or we'll be 0-1. Against the Hawks and 6ers, I thought we needed more Daniels, Pavlovich, and yes, Moore. Ray on Wade? Even without the ankle, that wouldn't be pretty. Moore on Wade? The rookie won't get the calls, and he might be tight, but if he has a good 10 minutes in game 1, he might contribute the rest of the way. With a fresh, aggressive man on Wade, even if LeBron dominates, we may pull it off. (Alternatively, given Doc's penchant for letting rookies watch, maybe a platoon of Daniels, Dooling, Pietrus, Allen on Wade).
As for Rondo, I hate to see him burn too much energy on D, when he has to have a great offensive game for us to win.

If fouls are #1, shooting is #2, my thoughts are that foot health may be #3.

We all have seen that Greg Stiemsma may be the best player to sub for KG. He can score on rebounds and short passes without bringing the ball down. Greg also can knock down a jump shot now and then. His shot blocking ability also comes in handy at the other end. Hollins provides great energy and can run the floor on the fast break, but he doesn't offer us much on the half court offense. Sean Williams is still an unknown factor as a backup to KG.

Ray Allen's ankle health (yes, the ankle bone is connected to the foot bone so I am stretching things a bit) is another key. He will be needed to help defend Wade and keep Wade running around screens chasing Ray on offense. I can't believe how high he jumped in the picture bobheckler posted on the game 7 postgame thread, bad ankle and all.

I think the number one key will be the Celts defense and what strategy will they employ to cover James and Wade. Will they double team one or both of them or will they allow them to feast on a single defender. Indy tried that and it blew up in their face.

The Celtics defense must be at its best if they have a chance to win this series. The rotation player must also step up and check the Heat bench players.

In sum, defense needs to be a focal point even is the offense sputters.

Dboss

sam im having a hard time arguing against your position that fouls could be the most important, but i cant help but think that perhaps another issue might be an issue.

and hopefully tonight i'll try to keep a tally to see if ive got any clue what im talking about, but all too often our unselfish play seems to me to force us into forced shot selections. when a guy is open with -5 seconds or so left on the clock and makes the extra pass we're getting into a bind i think.

If we can stop guys from having to look for some sort of short with 3 seconds or less left on the clock i think our fg% could improve just a bit. Even if it means 2-3 points a game in this series, that could be the diffrence between losing 4-0 or a trip to the finals.. i really think this could end up that close.

Just one?

If the "good Rondo" shows up each and every game we can take these guys. If he doesn't I don't want to think about it.

Matty, I agree with you about not letting the shot clock wind down on half court sets. That's why I believe it's important for Rondo to push the ball, even if not fast-breaking, so they start their half court offense as soon as possible in the shot clock.

But there's more to it than just pushing the ball. Some of the Celtics plays seem to take time to develop, so it's important for them to get into their first option a.s.a.p. so as to (1) keep Rondo from bouncing the ball for up to 10 seconds while waiting for someone to make a move and (2) allow them to try a second and third option if the first one doesn't work.

There's nothing that makes me long for the old days as much as running the first option at the 17-second mark of the clock. The longer they delay, the easier it is for the opponent to anticipate and defend the eventual play. To say nothing of the last-gasp shots you reference.

I don't believe there's a lot of mystery regarding the Heat's offensive strategy. But watching the Celtics on offense in this series—especially how Doc adjusts it to adapt to the flow of the game—could be a great tutorial for all of us.

Sam

Its really too bad we lost Bradley, with him we actually had the speed advantage and could run with them, even if AB wasn't finishing him running led to 4 on 3's with the trailer able to finish.....we still have to be able to run, we need a few of those one man fast breaks that Rondo can provide. In the halfcourt we have to post up KG and use him to open up the passing lanes feeding from the post mixed in with our usual high post offense. Miami's wings are so fast we may not have our usual advantage from the high post offense. There is gonna be alot of pressure on KG and Rondo to have their A games going without Avery Bradley, he was the wildcard, Heat couldn't handle his speed, tenacity and skills, with him at full strength last series is over in 5 and this one was doable in 6.

After having just watched game one...shooting.

We can deal with everything else we saw; we need to hit our shots or this will be over fast.

If anyone wants to simply say offense, that's good by me too.

I liked alot of the looks we got.....for the most part we couldn't hit a thing