Re: Celtics signing Evan Turner?

by **bobheckler** Tue Jul 22, 2014 1:23 pm

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2014/07/22/robb-turner-a-low-risk-gamble-for-celtics-but-will-he-fit/

Robb: Turner A Low-Risk Gamble For Celtics, But Will He Fit?
By Brian Robb, CBS Boston
July 22, 2014 12:22 PM

BOSTON (CBS) — Boston Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge is a man who likes to take chances on talented players with question marks. His track record (Jordan Crawford, Stephon Marbury, Darko Milicic,) in that department speaks for itself. This history makes it no surprise that, despite a crowded roster, Ainge bought low again on a free agent target, reportedly agreeing to terms with the no. 2 overall pick in the 2010 NBA Draft, Evan Turner.

Let’s take a look at the circumstances surrounding Turner’s imminent signing and try to piece together what he can (and can’t) add to this rebuilding roster next season.

THE CONTRACT
After falling out of the Pacers’ playoff rotation in the Eastern Conference Finals, Turner’s stock on the free agent market couldn’t have been much worse this offseason, creating the ideal circumstances for Ainge to pounce on the swingman. Steve Bulpett of The Boston Herald is reporting that the Celtics will sign Turner for a portion of the midlevel exception ($5.3 million).

The length of the deal is still not clear, but my expectation is that it will be a two-year pact worth around $5-6 million total. That kind of agreement would be beneficial to both sides involved, as it allows Turner an opportunity to rebuild his worth and re-enter the free agent market while he’s still in his prime. From the Celtics point of view, if Turner thrives in Boston in year one, it gives the team an extra year of his services for a below-market price. If Turner is a flop, the team can move on while doing minimal damages to their cap space next season.

WILL TURNER FIT WITH CELTICS?
A quick look at Turner’s numbers might make you think the Celtics could be landing a major steal. The swingman averaged a career-high 14 points per game, along with 5.0 rebounds and 3.2 assists while splitting time between the Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana Pacers last season.
A closer inspection of Turner’s play reveals the warts that left him available in the bargain basement bin for the Celtics. The 25-year-old has been an inefficient player over the vast majority of his four-year career. Turner takes plenty of shots but just doesn’t do it well, sporting a 42.7 shooting percentage from the field and a 32.7 percent mark from 3-point range over his career.

That kind of accuracy won’t help Boston with their floor spacing issues in the backcourt with players like Rajon Rondo and Marcus Smart who also lack a consistent outside shot. Turner’s defense can also be described as lackluster, as he has been prone to get stuck on picks and does not have great recognition at that end of the floor either.

The scouting report on Turner isn’t all doom and gloom though. He will be able to provide a serious boost for the Celtics in two different departments:

1) Defensive rebounding. Turner is one of the best rebounders for his size in the NBA. Over his career, he has grabbed 18.2 percent of all available defensive rebounds when he is on the floor. That mark would have put him right behind the seven-foot Kelly Olynyk in Boston’s team rankings last year. For a team that struggles in this department, Turner will help a lot.

2) Shot creation. Turner may not be great at taking shots but he’s better than most of the current Celtics at creating a shot on his own when the offense breaks down. He’s able to get to the rim as well (even though he hasn’t finished well there lately). If Turner makes strides in his finishing, his overall offensive game will look a whole lot better for it.

All in all, the Turner addition is a low risk gamble. He’ll have to work for his playing time, given the deep depth chart on the roster right now, but that might change if Ainge trades away a couple veterans. If Turner can shine under Brad Stevens, it will give the Celtics one more potential asset to shop around as they try to land a major acquisition via trade. If not, Turner joins a long list of failed reclamation projects in the Danny Ainge era that have done minimal damage to the team’s long-term prospects.

bob
MY NOTE: Pretty much agrees with my pre-existing opinion of him. The "given the deep depth chart on the roster right now" is a mouthful. If there was any doubt there are more moves coming I'd say this impending signing all but eliminates it. My prediction, based upon our roster size, roster's salary and its proximity to the luxury tax level on a team that is still rebuilding, is for more movement (perhaps even multiple trades) before camp in the 2nd half of September.

.

by **Outside** Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:14 pm

bobheckler wrote:Jeremy Lundblad @JLundbladESPN
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Among the 74 players with 8,000+ minutes over the last 4 seasons, Evan Turner ranks 74th in PER
2:10 PM - 21 Jul 2014

While it's not a great stat to have, I'm not as concerned about this.

• He's played for Philly, a poor team over the past four seasons (129-183). Playing on a lousy team is bound to drag down any good player's PER, both because your teammates aren't doing the things necessary to pump up your stats (giving you good passes, making shots when you pass to them) and because a better player will be put into a position of being the guy who needs to make a play when he may not necessarily be suited to that role (and I think that applies to Turner's case), all of which would lower his PER.

• The four years covered by this "stat" coincides with Turner's four-year career. It would be more instructive to take anyone who played 8,000+ minutes in the first four years of their career and compare their PER over those first four years with Turner's.

• As far as I can tell, basketball-reference.com doesn't allow you to perform the specific search to come up with Lundblad's stat since that type of search is limited to a specific season, but looking at last season, there are good players who played significant minutes and had a similar or worse PER. Here are PERs for selected players with 1600 or more minutes last season:

12.8 - Ray Allen
12.7 - Avery Bradley
12.7 - Draymond Green
12.6 - Mike Dunleavy
12.5 - Mike Miller
12.5 - Wilson Chandler
12.4 - Evan Turner
12.0 - Jarryd Bayless
12.0 - Marcus Thornton
11.8 - Mo Williams
11.5 - Jarrett Jack
10.8 - Giannis Antetokounmpo
10.8 - Kirk Hinrich
8.8 - Norris Cole

There's obviously no guarantee that Turner will be a good acquisition, but I'm not inclined to consider him a bad player based on PER alone.

by **steve3344** Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:42 pm

bobheckler wrote:Jeremy Lundblad @JLundbladESPN
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Among the 74 players with 8,000+ minutes over the last 4 seasons, Evan Turner ranks 74th in PER
2:10 PM - 21 Jul 2014

Normally I can't stand PER as a stat since it understates defense but if Turner's PER is that bad without taking into defense, and he's not known for his defense, he's pretty bad.

My opinion of Turner from watching him is that he is primarily a slasher, good in the full court with a mediocre mid-range game. His defense is half-hearted. His biggest problem, however, seems to be his attitude. He was the #2 pick in the 2010 draft and he thinks that means he should be catered to. Perhaps being shipped to Indy for Danny Granger (who is immediately cut), was not resigned by Indy and is now signing with Boston for part of the MLE, has let some of the air out of his balloon. There is probably no greater learning experience than being fired/cut/waived/released. It really makes you stop and wonder "WTF did I do?" while getting promoted often involves much less introspection. Evan Turner just got "fired" twice in one year and his new job isn't as good as either of his previous two.

He has had some very good games against us, but that's not a reason to sign someone. The reason to sign someone is because he fills a need and/or because he has very good games against our top rivals.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/turneev01.html

We could use depth at 3, with Wallace coming off of knee surgery. That means Johnson, Young or Turner. Three players for 1 slot. We are loaded at 2, which Turner can also play.

Minnesota, on the working assumption that Danny is signing players that Flip wants, has Kevin Martin, Alexey Schved, Shabazz Mohammed and Zach Lavine at SG and Chase Budinger, Kevin Martin and Corey Brewer at SF. I don't doubt Flip would love to flip either Budinger ($5M this year with a player option next year; knee and ankle injuries which have limited him to 64 games total in 2 years in Minny) or Kevin Martin ($6.8M this year and another 2 years $14.4M total; very good shooter but uni-dimensional) to us. Evan Turner would be an upgrade for either of them and, since he's signing for part of our MLE, he'd be cheaper than either one. He'd also have a chance to compete for a starting spot vs Brewer. He'd have no shot vs Jeff Green. Green is up and Green is down, and that drives us crazy, but he plays both ends better than Turner.

So, any deal with Minny would almost certainly have to include Bass since with Hump now in DC, no other Celtic PF's contract is big enough to make the numbers work with any significant impact. On the other hand, Sully or Kelly (let's say $2M) plus Bogans ($5M, instantly cut) plus Bradley ($8-9M) plus picks gets us close. We have a $4.3M TPE from the Hump deal, maybe that can be used to make the numbers work or we throw in Babb/Johnson for $1-2M of unguaranteed contracts and that closes the gap significantly for Love and Budinger or Martin (Danny would argue for Budinger who only has two years left, Flip would want to give us Martin with his 3 years, $21M). I know that Bradley would be more overkill at 2 for them, but he's the best defender at 2 they will have and he's an established NBA player with upside, which it is said Flip is looking for.

bob

.

Bob,

Here's how Turner rates in my system compared to various seasons of Jeff Green and their careers:

Turner:
21.97 - 2013 Philly
22.83 - 2014 Philly
17.65 - 2014 Indiana (boy was he bad with the Pacers last year in limited minutes)
21.34 - Career

Green:
20.63 - 2013 Boston
18.21 - 2014 Boston
18.88 - Career

Turner is below average but still (defense excluded except for rebounds, steals and blocks) rates out better than Jeff Green. As do the vast majority of players in the league...

by **Sam** Tue Jul 22, 2014 4:39 pm

Sorry, but PER is the bunk.

Boston Celtics, 1962-63 Season:

Bill Russell: HOF, 11 championship rings, PER=18.9
Sam Jones: HOF, 10 championship rings, PER = 18.7
John Havlicek: HOF, 8 championship rings, PER = 17.5
Tom Heinsohn: HOF, 8 championship rings, PER = 17.8
Tom Sanders: HOF (lifetime achieve.), 8 championship rings, PER=11.9
K.C. Jones: HOF, 8 championship rings, PER=10.4
Frank Ramsey: HOF, 7 championship rings, PER=15.5
Bob Cousy: HOF, 6 championship rings, PER=19.8
Clyde Lovellette: HOF, 3 championship rings, PER=21.6

Total: All 9 HOF, 69 championship rings, median PER=17.8

PER smelleth as the gentle gas beneath John Hollinger. Subjective weighting of primarily offensive stats with little-to-no consideration for true overall value to the team.

Sam

by **RosalieTCeltics** Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:49 pm

You tell them Sam! What a great time it was to be a Celtics lover!!!

Rosalie

by **Sam** Wed Jul 23, 2014 2:23 am

Rosalie, I think it's still a great time to be a Celtics lover. I just need to subscribe to their rotating scorecard service.

Sam

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