Jeff Green is a victim of circumstances

The board has been full of speculation about Jeff Green's future, along with conjecture about the factors that would influence his fate. I believe there is one very important consideration that has been flying under the radar.

The fact is that Jeff has missed Rondo's presence—arguably more than any other player on the team. All of his offensive performance stats are down:

Points per game: With Rondo 19.6; without Rondo 14.1

Shots per game: With Rondo: 15.0; without Rondo 13.1

Field goal shooting percentage: With Rondo 45.4%; without Rondo 40.0%

Three point shots per game: With Rondo 4.9; without Rondo 4.1

Made three oint shots per game: With Rondo 1.6; without Rondo 1.3

Three point shooting percentage: With Rondo 33.0%; without Rondo 30.3%

Some of these "pre" and "post" differences are larger than others, but the downward trend is unmistakable. And a tiny portion of the differences can probably be attributed to slightly diminished minutes per game: with Rondo 34.0; without Rondo 31.8. But even that fact likely demonstrates a little less confidence by Brad Stevens in Jeff's dependability over various game situations.

Fewer shots are usually an indicator of fewer touches. Earlier this season, Jeff seemed to be posting up to an increasing, and successful, degree. Now, the Celtics "playmakers" are demonstrating a startling inability to pass the ball inside without having it intercepted. The result has been that Jeff's too frequently left hanging around the perimeter, where he obviously is not at his best (see three point stats above) and from where it's difficult-to-impossible to execute the one-dribble drive that he does so well. And Jeff is much more of a catch-and-shoot player than a shot creator. You can't catch what your teammates can't throw. Calling for more plays involving Jeff would not work if his teammates lack the ability to put Jeff in the best position to carry out the plays.

So I'm coming to believe that, if Danny were to decide to trade Jeff, it will be due less to lack of ability on Jeff's part and due more to lack of ability among his teammates (along with Danny's estimate of how likely Jeff would be to walk away from Boston on his own). A team built along the lines of the current model—even with better players—may just represent the wrong environment to bring out the best in Jeff. Put him on a team with Chris Paul and watch what happens.

Sam

Unmistakable is right. He played much better with Rondo as the primary distributor. The team chemistry has since changed, so this type of effect should be expected.

But if I'm Jeff, I'm not sure I want to stay. Trading stars is the trend now. Hell, even Jeff is on the market now.


KJ

Whenever I see " . . . victim of circumstance" I think of the following:



(at 2:10)

There is no question that any basketball player who is incapable or 'creating' his own shot is very much dependent on the team's primary ball handler/point guard for individual scoring opportunities. Sam, Green is neither the first nor last player who can be affected when players are traded.

With Rondo gone we now have a three headed point guard situation that is not likely to get much better until a trade is made. Smart is not experienced enough if he indeed has true point guard mentality, Turner is decent but is and will remain a shoot first type of player and Nelson is terrible on defense and is even now injured.

I also like Pressey, but it certainly appears that either Stevens or Ainge do not think that he is anywhere near the team's answer at the point.

gyso, which one is Jeff?

Sam

Clyde,

I understand Jeff's not the first or last to be a victim of inadequate playmaking.  But (1) he's the latest and (2) he's a Celtic, which is why I bring it up.  It may be obvious, but I hadn't seen it mentioned as an element of his problems or his future, which is why I posted it.  I'm seeing a lot of blame cast on Jeff that I think should rest on the circumstance I mentioned.

Sam

sam wrote:gyso, which one is Jeff?

Sam

Soitenly it's Jerome. Nyuk-nyuk-nyuk!

Calling Dr. Fine, Dr. Howard, Dr. Fine

I'm soiten that Jeff misses Rondo, but I also think he's a sensitive guy who's looking at the handwriting on the wall. With Rondo shipped out, with Jeff's contract set up the way it is, and with Young looking soo good, you can be sure Jeff thinks he's next on the train to Niagara Falls.

Niagara Falls, slowly I turned, step by step . . .

The thing about Jeff Green, and this is speculation, is that he really seems to want to be a Celtic. He feels a lot of love for the team that drafted him and reacquired him and stood by him when he had a life-threatening illness. I like him, he's a hard worker; it would be sad to see him go.

I like him too, Spike. I'd prefer that he stay with the Celtics, but only if the team can commit to finding a way to put him in a better position to utilize his talents. As it is now, circumstances beyond his control have made him all too easy a target for criticism about the regression of his game. I believe that's unfair to both Jeff and the team, especially given the sensitivity that you mention.

Sam

The best thing for Green is that he's traded to a team that can utilize him better. Right now, things are trending downward and it'd be a shame to waste his prime like this.


KJ

rickdavisakaspike wrote:Calling Dr. Fine, Dr. Howard, Dr. Fine

I'm soiten that Jeff misses Rondo, but I also think he's a sensitive guy who's looking at the handwriting on the wall.  With Rondo shipped out, with Jeff's contract set up the way it is, and with Young looking soo good, you can be sure Jeff thinks he's next on the train to Niagara Falls.

Niagara Falls, slowly I turned, step by step . . .

The thing about Jeff Green, and this is speculation, is that he really seems to want to be a Celtic.  He feels a lot of love for the team that drafted him and reacquired him and stood by him when he had a life-threatening illness.  I like him, he's a hard worker; it would be sad to see him go.

Spike,

For the record it was "Calling Dr (Moe) Howard, Dr (Larry) Fine, Dr (Curly) Howard", not Dr's Fine, Howard, Fine.

I agree with substance of your post and caught the "SOItenly!" gag.

Sorry, but nobody messes with The Stooges when I'm around. Virtually around anyway, although I'm actually literally on the other side of the globe. Nyuk, nyuk nyuk.

bob


.

After defending the guy with what often seemed like my last bit of strength last season - against criticism both fair and ridiculous (still cant believe one board member claimed that Andrei Kirilenko was better than Jeff), I feel like that ship has sailed.

He is an exceptional young man, a great athlete and a very good support player (if you can call an NBA top 30 scorer a support player) If he were to go back to OKC or some other team where he could chip in 15 PPG and stay out of the limelight, I think he would be better off. I cannot say the same for the Celtics.

k_j_88 wrote:The best thing for Green is that he's traded to a team that can utilize him better. Right now, things are trending downward and it'd be a shame to waste his prime like this.


KJ

could it be possible to package him and one or more of our later first round picks for a guaranteed lottery pick in this years draft?

mrkleen09 wrote:After defending the guy with what often seemed like my last bit of strength last season - against criticism both fair and ridiculous (still cant believe one board member claimed that Andrei Kirilenko was better than Jeff), I feel like that ship has sailed.

He is an exceptional young man, a great athlete and a very good support player (if you can call an NBA top 30 scorer a support player)  If he were to go back to OKC or some other team where he could chip in 15 PPG and stay out of the limelight, I think he would be better off.  I cannot say the same for the Celtics.

so your point is as a supporting role player on teams with core all stars, hes a good complimentary piece? and you feel he can't make a difference here with the state of rebuilding mode we are now in?

cowens/oldschool wrote: so your point is as a supporting role player on teams with core all stars, hes a good complimentary piece? and you feel he can't make a difference here with the state of rebuilding mode we are now in?

Correct.

With this team, he has no PG to get him the ball in a position to be successful.
He has a coach with no sense of reasonable rotations, who seems to just go with who is hot until they are no longer hot - with no deference for the "starters".
And he has a fan base that expects way too much from a player who has never been a top tier star (nor has he ever been paid as a top tier star)

There are lots of teams who would be thrilled to have an 18+ point per game scorer for 9 million per. Particularly a guy who is a good person, great in the community, humble and never causes any issues on or off the court.

Jeff Green is a very, very talented player, but if he can do nothing to become only a "support" player then that is a weakness in his game/makeup.

I understand "circumstances" can be reasons for not performing your best, but I think that such limitations should be reserved for much less talented players.

There comes a time when guys like Green have to make better of their situations. That does not mean that he has to become a 100% shooter or become a plus 20 per game rebounder, but it does mean that he cannot shift back into a "support" role mentality just because Rondo was traded. If Green is not scoring like he did when Rondo was here, then the other parts of his game (defense, rebounding, etc, etc) should have picked up.

Clyde,

Actually, I believe Jeff's defense and rebounding have picked up to at least some degree during the past few games. While it would be impossible to tie those improvements specifically to Rondo's departure, I think the stats would bear me out at least in terms of rebounding.

The usual shift in mentality when a resource leaves is for others to pick up the slack, starting with utilizing their strengths rather than developing an entirely new perspective that downplays those strengths.

We shouldn't forget that Jeff has been expected, for some time, to become a more consistent offensive force. According to everything I've read, heard and seen, for most of this season, he has done just that. For him now to be expected to justify being a less consistent offense force by changing other parts of his game somehow seems like a lot to ask. At the very least, there has to be a fair amount of frustration, confusion, and possibly disillusionment on Jeff's part.

There's no question that Jeff is a talented but limited player. I don't believe anyone here believes Jeff has so many outstanding talents that he can just reach into his grab bag of skills and substitute one for another in contributing to the team. Clearly, a resource on which he depended hugely in becoming a more consistent offensive force is now gone. That's not Jeff's fault. It's the fault of circumstance, which I believe can affect any human being and is not limited to affecting lower echelon players.

Sam

Jeff is also a victim of this try everything mentality that the team is in the midst of.

His Minutes Per Game are varying wildly - which further destroys his flow and consistency. He is a guy that takes a while to get warmed up, so jumping from 39 minutes and 18 shots one game, to 24 minutes and 7 shots the next is clearly not helping.

Cow,

Just one player isn't going to change anything. There's a looooong way to go.



KJ

Sam,

I am not asking Green to change his game, but rather asking him to improve in other aspects of the game if he is not getting his shots in the same way that he did when Rondo was around.

For such a physically talented guy he has never rebounded with much success nor has he played exceptional defense.

Both rebounding and defense are skills to a point but also very much improved with effort and desire.

Jeff Green is no victim of circumstance.

He is a victim of his own inability to dribble the basketball and get to places where no man has gone before.

I have previously mentioned in the past that Green lacks a good handle. I previously mentioned that Avery bradley has no handle and i previously mentioned that marcus Smart has a weak handle. No handle no game...this is the NBA.

Why did Danny trade our only begotten center for a SF with no handle?

Let's blame Danny...again!

dboss

Where's Cow when we really need him to stoke those fires of regret for losing Perk. There's really nothing ever better to talk about than that, is there, except maybe losing Paul Westphal to Phoenix in the 70's. Damn Red. I can never forget or forgive him for that. We almost lost the 76 title as a result.