My First Post, Dark Horse draft pick at #16

Hello Sam, and hello forum!

years ago before this forum started, i went by the screen name arodrambone. I recognize most of your names from the old days, but man it's been a long time.

Back when we would try to rank Rondo, Marcus Williams, Randy Foye, and Brandon Roy, and try to decide who would be the best pick at #7 I believe it was.

Anyway, I've been lurking for years, and even tried to sign u a couple times, but then I'd forget my screenname or something.

But I've come tonight with a strong urge to discuss a specific draft prospect this year. For some reason, last night I suddenly had the strong urge to create a twitter account just to write something to Danny Ainge: That internal player growth is going to be huge this offseason, and we don't need big fireworks to win 54+ games next year.

Okay, back to the subject of this post:
I think Christian Wood is getting slept on, as I too have been sleeping on him. Most mock drafts have him in the mid-late 20s, so I'd consider it wonderful if we drafted him at #28.

But I think he will rise into the discussion for the #16 pick, and I'm pretty much already at that point, unless Frank Kaminsky drops to #16. My other two favorite 2nd half of the first round prospects are Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Montrezl Harrell.

Christian Wood is a sophomore, but he's no older than this year's freshmen like Okafor or Winslow. He's 6'11 with a 7'3" wingspan, but slight like JaJuan Johnson, at 220 lbs.

Wood doesn't have special passing vision or bbiq, but he has a hidden talent that is being totally overlooked right now. He is able to defend small forwards and most wings on the perimeter.

All the scouting reports focus on his light weight for the PF position, but the fact is I think he'll be an average defender against small forwards at worst. He's long enough and just quick enough that he will rarely get burned, and he is young enough that he can continue to get quicker and more athletic. He might not even be done growing.

He has good shooting touch for a big, and good touch around the rim. He shoots 73% from the FT line and I think 28% from 3. He could play the Brandon Bass type role quite well, except do it from the small forward position while two of our many stretch bigs help spread the floor as well.

Defensively, in addition to guarding the other teams' small forwards, and being an extremely versatile defender on pick and roll switches, Wood will also be able to offer major supplemental rim protection on the help side. Having a 6'11" super long small forward would basically cure our rim protection shortcomings, and his outstanding rebounding and rebounding instincts will go a very long way towards curing our rebounding woes. In addition to rebounds, he'll be able to tip a ton of rebounds out to teammates like Jerebko is good at.

We could send Wood in to crash the offensive and defensive boards every time a shot goes up, and he's fast enough to get back on defense after going for the offensive rebound.

The Greek Freak Giannis Antetokoumpo gets tons of hype, with good reason. But Christian Wood is remarkably similar to Giannis physically, from the 6'11 height to the 7'3"+ wingspan to the slight build and the extreme youth.

Giannis is a bit more athletic than Wood, and is a much better ball handler and passer. He also plays with more consistent passion than Wood. But Wood clearly has better shooting touch, with the potential to be a weapon from NBA 3 point line.

This is a prospect who could play both PF and center in the future for us, and he could help us right now as a "power 3" type role player. Kevin Garnett also started out at SF his rookie year.

Wood is no Garnett, and no Anthony Davis, and no Giannis, but he's absolutely in the same physical mold as those guys, and he shows real talent as a jump shooter already.

Anyway, I just think that there's a lot of quality talent in this draft, and Wood is exactly the type of prospect to rise late in the pre-draft process. I'm excited we could get him at 16, or perhaps even trade back a few spots and get him.

I'd describe him as a better shooting, more athletic Brandon Wright, which is a very solid role player indeed. And with his natural talent, there's almost no end to this kid's upside. He probably won't be Chris Bosh, but he could be a quality imitation.

Yikes that rambled on.

Rambone,

Great to hear from you again.  You're certainly well-remembered from the BCD days.  Your enthusiasm is especially appreciated, and the draft should be an exciting event indeed.  It seems that everyone's got a favorite, an this is the first I'd heard of Wood.  I never knew that KG had started as a SF.  From what you say, one thing in favor of Wood is that he sounds like a good combination of rebounding ability and getting out on the break. Nothing wrong with that.

Welcome to the board, and I look forward to hearing a lot from you.

Sam

Thanks Sam. Being enthusiastic has been a big detriment on other Celtics forums over the past two years. But I've been right on the money for the most part.

And the team that played at a 54 win pace after the All Star Break is only going to get better, especially with the playoff experience under their belts. I'm pretty pumped up indeed.

In part because I think when it all finally clicks for Kelly Olynyk, he's going to perhaps dominate like he finally did when it all clicked in college. He's already basically unguardable, he just doesn't quite believe it yet.

And it's only with a stretch center like Olynyk that playing a guy like Wood at small forward would work. But it very much could work beautifully.

Wood is creaping up the mock draft boards some, mostly because some players elected to stay in school IMO.

I have him at #23 right now on both my combined top 100 and my combined mock draft rankings.

kind of in the middle of where we are picking currently.

right now if my top 100 holds up close players like Portis, Grant, Lyles and Booker would all be right there at #16.

I agree with the Hollis-Jefferson thought, but he is at #21 on my top 100 now and like Wood rising slightly. Danny was at an Arizona game a month ago or so scouting. I believe this is the guy he was checking out.

so I think it more likely that Ainge would pick Hollis- Jefferson over Wood at #16 (if he were to reach for a player).

in either case, we need to remember we have both Turner and the rights to match any deal for Crowder next year (along with Wallace in his last year). not a lot of minutes for a rookie at small forward, though anyone drafter #16 and below isn't really going to get much playing time as a rookie anyway.

right now , my money is on our #16 pick being moved along with other "assets" for an upgrade up front. My favs (no info that any player is on the market now) would be N. Noel (phil), Dieng( Minn) and Favors( Utah).

I think any of those guys would be more help immediately and also are all young enough to be here for a long time.

Hi Rambone, welcome to the board!  I remember you from BDC as well.  One of the more sensible ones.  Not a big surprise given your post here.

You and kdp, in particular, are going to have TONS of fun, since he is the most enthusiastic draft board follower here.  We have others who follow college sports (e.g. NYCelt, cowensoldschool, just to name two) but kdp is the one who is our "go to guy" as we approach the draft.  His final projections were more accurate than the pros. I don't watch college sports, so I get all my insight from those guys and using their ideas will go out and look at draftexpress videos etc.  Having people who follow that stuff is valuable to this board, and especially me, since most of us don't.  We're in rebuilding mode, so the quality of the youth infusion and growth is critical. It wouldn't hurt me to find someone else to like besides Porzingis and the usual, and probably unattainable, suspects.

I'll take a look at your guy and write my thoughts on this thread.  Thanks for the tip and, hopefully, see you around more.


bob


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yikes I don't want another JJ Johnson, if he was near a KG would assume he'd be closer to lottery....its all a crapshoot? does he have instincts in the paint? is he a shot blocker?

I have a feeling that after this next draft I will be known as the guy who got lucky once.

and as I keep telling you Bob, I just read other peoples stuff.

kdp59 wrote:I have a feeling that after this next draft I will be known as the guy who got lucky once.

and as I keep telling you Bob, I just read other peoples stuff.

kdp,

Well then keep reading it. Whatever you did worked. Even if you're off this time you're still starting off 1-fer-2. Averaging the polls is a time-proven and honored approach, even if that is all you do, but I know you add your own insights as well.


bob


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Ok, so on to this Christian Wood guy:

6'11", 220#, 7'3" wingspan.  Added 20# since high school (he's a sophomore at UNLV now).

Watching the first video at draftexpress.com, here's my quick takes:

1.  Runs the floor like a gazelle.  Pretty good ballhandling skills.

2.  Has some mid-range game but only shoots 28% from college 3.  LONG strides off the dribble gets him to the rim fast.  Likes to go to his left on the dribble, like Bass.  

3.  Very QUICK 2nd jumps on rebounds (excellent for developing shotblocking too).  Not a great PnR defender.  That a big negative since the NBA is a PnR league.  Still young, but needs to improve his IQ on that.

4.  Looks pretty good defending the rim.  His lack of beef will put him at a physical disadvantage but he could add another 20# easy but currently lacks the strength to be a solid post defender. I want length, and he has it, but if he gets caught in the low blocks against a big NBA center like Pekovic or Kanter or any of those, they'll turn him into jam.


This, from draftexpress, concerns me:

Strength is one of the biggest things Wood needs to work on, as he is nowhere near as good of a defender (or post-up threat) as he could become once his body fills out. But it's far from the only one.

Wood has poor fundamentals on defense, as he tends to bite on pump-fakes regularly, and shows limited awareness off the ball in terms of positioning. He struggles with the nuances of the pick and roll, not always executing his team's game-plan, instead looking hunched over in a stance, and getting blown by off the dribble.

Inside the post, Wood is not particularly physical, as he tends to just stand straight-up and allow stronger players to catch the ball with deep position without putting up much of a fight. Once they catch it, he doesn't do a great job of bodying up his matchup or trying to hold his ground to avoid getting backed down. He doesn't appear to be the toughest or most contact loving player around, and his intensity leaves a lot to be desired as well in terms of his ability to give a second effort. It's not rare for example to see him jogging back on defense and getting beat up the floor by the opposing big man.

His feel for the game leaves a lot to be desired as well, as he doesn't seem to have any real concept of what his limitations are offensively at the moment, which is a real issue considering his lack of polish. Reading the floor or making simple plays is not something that comes natural to him. Wood's 8.5% assist percentage is one of the lowest rates among players currently projected to get drafted—he not only does not have great court vision, but also has a tendency to play somewhat selfishly at times.



But then they end with this:

On paper, Wood should be drafted much higher than where he is currently slated (in the 20s), as he is clearly a lottery-level talent with rare tools and impressive two-way potential. The hardest thing to find in today's NBA is a long-armed power forward who can block shots and make 3-pointers, two things Wood proved to be able to, albeit inconsistently. The fact that he also rebounds and finishes well around the basket makes him even more attractive.

Another thing to take into account is Wood's age. At only 19 ½, he is at least a full year younger than most of the other sophomores who will be drafted this June, and is not even two months older than freshmen like Cliff Alexander, Trey Lyles and Karl Towns. He body will clearly improve in time, as he's only a baby still physically, the question NBA teams will have is whether his lack of polish, smarts and awareness is due to a lack of experience, or a more deeply rooted issue?

More than anyone possibly, Wood is one of the biggest boom or bust prospects in this draft, and it will be fascinating to see how things play out over the next two months, and then over the course of his career



#16?  Chancy, very chancy, really rolling the dice, but worth moving up a few notches from #27 for sure.  Draftexpress has him going #23, so it's not that far to go.  He has "project" written on him, but at that point in the draft you are usually either getting a specialist who is deficient in numerous other areas or you're getting a project.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Christian-Wood-7182/


bob



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Thanks for the welcome guys!

I did pretty well with my mock draft last year as well, though I can't link for a week I believe. I had Jusuf Nurkic as my 6th ranked prospect back in early may last year. The year before, I started a thread called "Rudy Gobert could be special. Where will he go?" And I had him ranked #17 in my March mock draft.

I will say that I think Gogui Dieng is overrated, and a lot of Wolves fans agree. He gets his blocks, but his defense is actually well below average. He gets pushed around more than KOlynyk, and KO is actually probably tougher. Dieng also is not that young anymore, and his lack of skill and ability to get much stronger doesn't convince me that he's worth going after in a substantial way. He's like a Brandon Wright I guess, a guy who struggled to get minutes over the guys already on our roster.

KDP, I agree that there probably won't be a lot of minutes for most any rookie taken at #16, which is part of the reason I think we should seriously consider drafting for upside. We know Stevens is a great coach and can get the best out of his players, and we benefit from the luxury of great roster depth while other teams will NEED immediate contributions from their draft pick.

Cowens, Christian Wood has great instincts in the paint, both as a rebounder and as a shotblocker. Great instincts, timing, and he's very quick off his feet on first and second and even third jump. He averaged 10 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game and tips a lot more rebounds to teammates and disrupts a lot more shots than he blocks.

Last night I watched the UNLV vs Arizona game from this year, where UNLV pulled the biggest upset of the season over #3 Arizona behind Wood's 24 points. If you guys get the chance, watch at least the second half, where Wood scored like 18 points, and UNLV just gave him the ball in isolation in the high post and Wood attacked and destroyed Arizona's top defense off the dribble.

This 19 year old has better ball handling than I realized, and he's lethal in iso from the high post because of his threat to knock down the jumper. He can basically get his shot off at will in iso, even if one of the criticisms of him is that he can push that ability right to the limit and beyond, taking tough contested shots and not seeing the open man.

I'd compare his offensive mentality to Bass. Not a good passer, and not good vision, and not the greatest natural bbiq, and with more of a scoring mentality.

He also already has great footwork on his step back jumper, which I didn't realize. Give this guy an iso situation in the more spread out NBA, and with our stretch bigs, and he's going to develop into a real weapon. Probably will develop into a better scorer than the Greek Freak will, because of his superior touch.

I've been a big Porzingis fan for over a year now, but he might not be that much better of a prospect than Wood. Their games are very similar, they both weigh 220 lbs, they both are perimeter oriented, and they both can attack the rim off the dribble at an above average level. Porzingis is 1-2 inches taller, and probably has a better bbiq, but Wood would be a pretty sweet consolation prize, even at 16.

As far as consolation prizes if we don't draft Wood at 16 and he's gone by 28, Chris McCullough from Syracuse, he of the torn acl, could bring quite a bit of what Wood would bring. McCullough is even quicker than Wood, and even better suited to defend small forwards on the perimeter. He's just not as tall, and is even more raw than Wood.

But I'm definitely enchanted with the idea of getting an extra-tall garbage man small forward, and I guess we're lucky there's a couple that should be within our reach. Hopefully.

On youtube, draftexpress has Christian Wood highlights from his Arizona game/masterpiece, as well as a new extended video scouting report. Separate videos for strengths and weaknesses.

FYI, I believe Bosh, like KG, played some SF as a rookie. If Wood just focused on his quickness, athleticism, and skills instead of on bulking up to play PF, I think he could be a help-defense gem, a third tower out there on the floor and one of the more versatile defenders in the league.

Hi Bob. DX writes great scouting reports, don't they?

What has me so excited is that most all of those weaknesses are quite easily correctable with experience and good coaching. And we have an outstanding coaching staff and locker room. I'm not sure how good the coach at UNLV is.

Not only is Wood the age of most freshmen, but he's the same age as a lot of guys who will be freshmen next year.

And Wood's lack of strength in the post would be mitigated by playing primarily against small forwards for a year or two or three. He'd definitely get trampled by the 280 pounders, but so does Nerlens Noel and Gogui Dieng, and even Anthony Davis.

in 2013-14, the Celtics had some success in a zone with Jeff Green at the top of the key, I believe. I think Wood in a zone on the perimeter would be a real weapon.

Finding great shot blocking centers is very hard, and even some of those end up not being very good overall defenders, like Gogui Dieng so far.

Getting a big shot blocking and rebounding small forward would be like an end-around solution to our shot blocking and rebounding needs. Such guys are just as rare, but luckily for us, most other teams don't have highly skilled bigs to compensate for a small forward who doesn't have guard skills.

We'll see what happens. I'd still take Kaminsky over Wood, but the other guys in that range are starting to look less exciting, especially long-term.

Trading back from 16 could be an option as well. There's a lot of similar talent in that range, all the way back to the mid-late 20s.

Thanks rambone, sounds like he has potential ability to create his own shoot facing up, as hes done this at the college level with some success and he does have some defensive ability to go with length. If hes closer to Chris Bosh than JuJuan Johnson then that could be a good pick for any team.