Ranking Boston's Draft Pick Arsenal

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/238669/Ranking-Bostons-Draft-Pick-Arsenal



Ranking Boston's Draft Pick Arsenal
BY DANIEL LEROUX

JUL 7, 2015 8:10 PM


Over the last year or so, many in the media have fawned over Danny Ainge and the Boston Celtics’ war chest of assets. Boston certainly has a large number of picks, but face a problem because their quantity largely outpaces their quality. Leaving the second round picks aside for the moment (as of now, they have six in the next three drafts), here are the draft picks Boston has from 2016 to 2018, ranked in order of present value:

1. Brooklyn’s unprotected 2016 pick- With Deron Williams and Joe Johnson still clogging their salary cap, the Nets will struggle to even make the playoffs next season in the Eastern Conference. With Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young re-signed, Brooklyn should be substantially better than the bottom with zero incentive to take their foot off the gas pedal.

2. Dallas’ 2016 first round pick (top-7 protected through 2020)- The Mavericks were facing a tough road back to the playoffs in a stacked Western Conference entering the offseason and it looked like it wouldn't be a problem with the additions of DeAndre Jordan and Wesley Matthews. But with Jordan changing his mind to stay with the Clippers, all options are on the table for the Mavericks. The top seven protection gives the Mavericks an out in the worst-case scenario in a way that parallels the Warriors in 2011-12.

3. The right to swap first round picks with Brooklyn in 2017- Swaps are less valuable because it requires outperforming the other team but the Nets very well could strike out on max-level talent in the Summer of 2016. If so, Brooklyn could elect to keep the powder dry for 2017 and avoid putting any long-term money on their books. In that scenario, the 2016-17 season could be Boston’s best opportunity to get a quality pick.

4. Boston’s own 2016 pick- The Celtics could make some major additions this summer but the most likely outcome is another pick in the late teens after another low seed playoff appearance.

5. Brooklyn’s unprotected 2018 pick- By the 2018 Draft, the Nets will have had two chances with max space to bring in elite talent. I fully expect them to hit at least once, which presumably puts them in the playoff picture.

6. Boston’s own 2017 pick- The Celtics will likely do better each season moving forward since their young talent is under team control for quite a while.

7. Memphis’ 2018 pick (protected for 1-12)- This selection gets a bit complicated because the Grizzlies cannot convey this pick until two years after they send a choice to Denver. My expectation is that Denver gets Memphis’ pick in 2017, which means the first year Boston can get theirs is 2019 with top-8 protection. The Grizzlies could be a lottery team by then, but this is such a distant asset right now that it moves down the list.

8. Boston’s own 2018 pick- See above.

9. Minnesota’s 2016 first round pick (top-12 protected)- The most overrated arrow in Boston’s quiver because it converts to Minnesota’s second round picks in 2016 and 2017 if the pick falls under the 1-12 protection this season. Two solid second round picks but not a ton of trade value before the draft order is set.

At this point, Boston’s fundamental problem is that none of these picks qualify as elite assets. That could change over time since having a large number of variable properties increases the chances of a more positive result.

Additionally, Boston’s players are moving away from the asset category. Jared Sullinger and Tyler Zeller are just one season from restricted free agency while Kelly Olynyk will be one year behind them. Once a non-max player hits free agency (especially if it comes after the 2016 cap boom), odds are they are properly paid or overpaid, substantially weakening their value to other teams. Similarly, Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley are good, useful players but neither screams NBA starter at this point.

The Celtics still have a nice collection of players and picks but coalescing them into a smaller number of strong assets gets more unlikely each year. Fortunately, they also have cap space which could end up being their best path to contention, particularly in concert with their other resources.




bob
MY NOTE: This article is a little late, because Deron got bought out by Brooklyn. Secondly, if there's one thing we've seen by Danny over the past few years it's that if a player plays hardball with Danny, he's gone and Danny doesn't give him up for nothing. So, I'm not so worried about Sully and Zeller especially since they are cheap and probably won't be prohibitively expensive to keep with the cap going up so much.


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With the fact that most of these picks have come from other teams in deals that Ainge has made without giving up too much quality it should not surprise us that they may not have great value.

If Ainge had given up some top level talent and these are the only picks we have it would not be good, but outside of Rondo I cannot think of another quality player he has traded, and he was traded when not playing very well either. Even Pierce and Garnett were not top level players when they were traded away.

Some of these picks may turn into good rotation players and that may be all they need to be as the team continues to get better each year.

One unmentioned factor is that the context of the quality of each draft must be considered when ranking the value of draft picks.  Since that quality cannot be predicted many years in advance, these rankings are really pretty speculative.

Aside from that factor, I'd personally consider Brooklyn's unprotected 2016 pick to be in the elite category.

Sam