Why Danny Ainge Wants to keep the Nets Picks

When Danny did not make a deal to trade their first pick in the 2016 draft some folks complained.  And when the recent trading deadline passed and no moves were made for the Jimmy Butlers of the world or even to target a need by going after Serge, a clearer picture of Boston's rebuilding process emerged.

It certainly appears that Danny intends to rely heavily on the draft to field a roster that will challenge for championships over an extended period of time.  The attractiveness of winning today may not be in the plans if he has to part with assets that have tremendous value.  I expect that Danny may still call Durant's agent after the season to gauge any interest in joining the Celtics next season but I see no high end free agents on the horizon.  The Celtics needs are very specific at this juncture.  They are not going to make a trade for a Point guard, shooting guard or small forward.  They are not going to make a trade for a center or power forward that can only play in the post.  It appears expectations are now completely focused on building through the draft and doing so by using all 3 Nets picks.

The hoop gods would have to be angry at the Celtics for them to fall all the way down to #4 in the draft.  A more likely outcome is that we will fall somewhere between 1-3.  There sits Fultz, Ball and Jackson.  The Celtics will draft Fultz if they have the 1st pick.  If they fall to # 2 i think they will draft Josh Jackson because he has tremendous upside on offense and defense.  I would pass on ball because I cannot stand watching him shoot the ball.  I actually think that he will struggle to shoot the NBA 3 with that shooting form.   Both Fultz and Jackson are superior athletes over Ball.  However we cannot overlook the possibility that Boston drops all the way down to # 4.  What then?  A trade perhaps or would Danny go after the long and athletic SF/PF Issaac out of FSU or one of the other talented guards or small forwards? Or the kid Markkenen from Arizona.  He may trade down. #4 is the worst case scenario for Boston and I do not believe in worst case scenarios.    As many have observed the Draft is a crap shoot in more ways than one but I will go with the odds that we will land another top 3 pick (64.2%)

Next year's roster is sure to change and the draft should have an impact on who goes and who stays.

The Celtics will need to open up 3 roster spots next year.  pick 3 (Johnson, Zeller,  Jerebko, Young, Mickey, Green, Jackson, Olynyk)

They will be replaced by our 1st rounder this year and the 2 stashes from last year.  

The Celtics will make a qualifying offer to KO but will not do an extension unless he plays consistently for the remainder of the year and especially during the playoffs.  

Danny will make an offer to extend AB and IT.  IT wants the Celtics to back up a brink's truck.  That is not going to happen.  I think a fair offer for both is a salary in the $20,000,000 range that would not kick in until the 2018-2019 season.  If either rejects the offer I would search out trading partners over the summer.  If DA tries to throw $15-$18 million at either, they will walk.  Both have more than outplayed their contracts.  

Amir Johnson is one of 3 glue guys on the team (the other two are Marcus Smart and Jae Crowder)  Amir is coming off a $12 million salary and I suspect that the Celtics would like to and need to retain his services because the rooks (Yabu and Zizic) are unproven.  Amir's veteran leadership will still be needed next year.  I could see a 3 year offer in the $7.5 million range with the 3rd year being non-guaranteed.

Pressure will continue to build for Danny to make some big time trade even if the 2018 Nets pick is part of the deal.  But I think DA will want to retain that pick because the 2018 draft is loaded at the PF and C position and DA needs to draft AH's replacement next year.  There are 13 projected 1st rounders that play PF C or PF/C.  

Just as the 2017 draft is well stocked at the 1,2 and 3 spots the 2018 draft will be dominated by 4's and 5's.

If DA follows this path he would have used all 3 1st round Nets picks to stock his team with exceptional young talent and at the same time retain our core group of solid veterans.  Most teams like Philly or the Twolves have used draft picks the same way except those teams do not have a solid core and therefore those teams have experienced more difficulty in becoming winners.  Boston is already there and can absorb 2 additional high end draft picks.  This is the main reason why Danny choose not to leverage his assets in a trade for that unknown difference maker.  Danny's plan is not an easy one to replicate because good teams rarely have top draft picks in the pipeline to add to a team of solid veterans that play well together and are playoff bound.

Next event will be the draft lottery.

dboss

I agree with you on almost all your points. However, I do believe that a move for a forward/shooter/gunslinger! Is necessary. It appears that Danny/Brad/whoever is very hot on both overseas big men. Danny is determined to sign Zinic  (sp) when July 1 comes. I like the way they are handling the team. This is the was to build for the future

Rosalie

This kid caught my eye

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Lauri-Markkanen-73519/videos/

DA could trade down and draft this kid.  Shoots  the ball really well from deep...deep and has a nice mid range pull up game.  We do need to improve our scoring at the 4 and 5 from distance.  He reminds me of Pozingas but not quite as long.  However he definitely shoots the ball as well.

dboss

So he appears to be the second coming of the big guy in NY, Porzengas???

Porzengas is a better defender/shot blocker but in terms of being a pure shooter he has consistent deep range. A perfect fit on offense.

dboss

So he appears to be the second coming of the big guy in NY, Porzengas???

dboss

I have to give you a lot of credit for laying out your thoughts on such an iffy subject - but I for one am not going to join you out on that limb - especially when the trend is for the top teams to continually stay on top via the use of free agency or via the trading of high draft choices for established elite talent. I'm no longer sure whats on my mind - let alone what Danny might have up his sleeve. It should be an interesting post season this summer.

swish

Dboss, excellent post! I've stated many times that I would not trade the 2017 pick  under any realistic circumstance and would be hard pressed to trade the '18. I agree with your assessment of the top prospects as well. Fultz and Jackson are my clear top 2, in that order. Ball's funky shooting mechanics bothers me as does his lack of athleticism (comparatively speaking).Also can't overlook or underestimate the "father factor". A slightly better passing D'angelo Russell doesn't raise my heart rate. J. Isaacs has potential but the book on him is lack of strength (fixable), offensive inconsistency (worrisome), and a motor that doesn't always redline (more worrisome). A drop to 4 in the lottery would be a huge disappointment, to say the least.

dboss wrote:Rosalie

This kid caught my eye

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Lauri-Markkanen-73519/videos/

have you seen him play?

willjr wrote:Dboss, excellent post! I've stated many times that I would not trade the 2017 pick  under any realistic circumstance and would be hard pressed to trade the '18. I agree with your assessment of the top prospects as well. Fultz and Jackson are my clear top 2, in that order. Ball's funky shooting mechanics bothers me as does his lack of athleticism (comparatively speaking).Also can't overlook or underestimate the "father factor". A slightly better passing D'angelo Russell doesn't raise my heart rate. J. Isaacs has potential but the book on him is lack of strength (fixable), offensive inconsistency (worrisome), and a motor that doesn't always redline (more worrisome). A drop to 4 in the lottery would be a huge disappointment, to say the least.

If we drop to 4, I would look for DA to trade down or trade out.

Danny needs a plan A B C And D.  I do not think we will drop to 4.  Much better odds at 3 or higher.

dboss

cowens/oldschool wrote:

dboss wrote:Rosalie

This kid caught my eye

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Lauri-Markkanen-73519/videos/

have you seen him play?

Two times.  Both against UCLA.  Been locked in on Fultz but I swear this kid can flat out shoot the ball and has a really nice handle for a seven footer.

dboss

alot of people like Jayson Tatum, heard Jay Williams and Stephen A Smith compare him to Paul Pierce

swish wrote:dboss

I have to give you a lot of credit for laying out your thoughts on such an iffy subject  - but I for one am not going to join you out on that limb - especially when the trend is for the top teams to continually stay on top via the use of free agency or via the trading of high draft choices for established elite talent. I'm no longer sure whats on my mind - let alone what Danny might have up his sleeve. It should be an interesting post season this summer.

 swish

Swish

I think the difference between the norm is that Boston is already a top 5 team with great financials and 2 more top of the draft picks. The other thing relates to Need. The Celtics already have significant depth 1-3. And have already spent big time dough for AH. Where do they go from here?

Staying the course is not a bad option given the level of talent that can be added. I know there is a learning curve but it is not like we are a bad team. This is not the 07 team that dropped 18 in a row.

Dboss

cowens/oldschool wrote:alot of people like Jayson Tatum, heard Jay Williams and Stephen A Smith compare him to Paul Pierce

Tatum is an excellent player and another viable option.  This draft is top 10 deep.

dboss

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/lauri-markkanen

Cow, I posted about Tatum a while ago. I put him and Dennis Smith (NCSU) just below Fultz, Jackson, and Ball. I like Tatum, I think he is now and will be a better player than Brandon Ingram, not a bad consolation prize if we get and keep the 4th pick (praying not!). With JB showing 2 guard skills, Tatum could be our future 3.

I think 1 - 4, we keep the pick.  No trade.

With any pick 2 - 4 you have to at least consider Tatum.  He would lock down the 3 in a fairly short time.

Regardless; Fultz, Ball, Tatum, Jackson...you can't go wrong.

Markkanen is an NBA player for certain, kid can really shoot the 3.  I doubt we take him because we already have the stretch 4 department covered, and he's not the best rebounder or shot blocker around.  Kelly O pretty much can deliver the same.

I'm starting to think more about who we take at #39, if we keep it.  Thomas Bryant gives us the type of young C we need (disclaimer; hometown kid, being a homer here, but he fits). Dillon Brooks would add versatility in the front court, and Grayson Allen gives us another offensive weapon, as long as he's not tripping anyone.  Those three could go earlier, too, maybe late first.  Still, at least one could be around.

willjr wrote:http://www.nbadraft.net/players/lauri-markkanen

Cow, I posted about Tatum a while ago. I put him and Dennis Smith (NCSU) just below Fultz, Jackson, and Ball. I like Tatum, I think he is now and will be a better player than Brandon Ingram, not a bad consolation prize if we get and keep the 4th pick (praying not!). With JB showing 2 guard skills, Tatum could be our future 3.

agreed I've seen Tatum play a few times, his team is on TV alot. I think he can play the 4 too for stretches in the modern small ball line up, he definitely likes to mix it up in the paint.

back to your original post here dboss:

if I read correctly, you are saying that Danny will maintain the current roster, with upgrades coming from Danny's collection of draft picks. The draft picks also help to extend the teams time as one of the top 5 teams in the NBA.

It certainly could be the way Danny is thinking or may be the way things just fall (no trades happen, despite Danny possible wanting one).

Horfords signing and the chasing of Durant seem to say the opposite to me, but a good GM has to adjust on the fly for sure.

since I think signing an additional Max free agent unlikely until at least Horfords deal is done, it may be the best way to continue an albeit slower improvement ( but linger term perhaps).

I saw slower, because improving though the draft does take a couple years.

but yes, a team of in 2019 of Rozier, Brown, Fultz and DeAndre Ayton along with Yabusle and Zizic

along with vets like Smart, Horford, Crowder and either Bradley or Thomas, could be a very impressive team.

We may also still be waiting on that team to compete for a title in 2019 as well.

interesting possibilities.

kdp59 wrote:back to your original post here dboss:

if I read correctly, you are saying that Danny will maintain the current roster, with upgrades coming from Danny's collection of draft picks. The draft picks also help to extend the teams time as one of the top 5 teams in the NBA.

It certainly could be the way Danny is thinking or may be the way things just fall (no trades happen, despite Danny possible wanting one).

Horfords signing and the chasing of Durant seem to say the opposite to me, but a good GM has to adjust on the fly for sure.

since I think signing an additional Max free agent unlikely until at least Horfords deal is done, it may be the best way to continue an albeit slower improvement ( but linger term perhaps).

I saw slower, because improving though the draft does take a couple years.

but yes, a team  of in 2019 of Rozier, Brown, Fultz and DeAndre Ayton along with Yabusle and Zizic

along with vets like Smart, Horford, Crowder and either Bradley or Thomas, could be a very impressive team.

We may also still be waiting on that team to compete for a title in 2019 as well.

interesting possibilities.

There are so many other possibilities

Also confirming your thoughts, DA has not relied solely on the draft to build this team.  The trades for Crowder, Thomas, Jerebko and free agent signings like the AH deal and earlier draft picks provided a nice core group of players.  In reality you could look at all 5 starters and find a reason to upgrade them and do so by making more trades.  But I have  feeling Danny wants to hold that core together and add to it without giving up any of the Nets reamaining 2 picks.  The Celtics are in a way. a target for teams that only see things in terms of the sheer volume of assets that we have.  A perfect example was the reported asking price for Paul George.  We know that Danny is not afraid to make trades but he does seem more cautious now than in the past.

The ultimate goal is #18, #19 and #20+

dboss

First of all, let me say this was an excellent essay by Dboss.  I may be the prime cut-and-paster on this site but he is one of the board members who presents his own original thoughts.  WideClyde and the not-recently-seen Arambone being two others (no offense meant to any I have not mentioned).

One of the issues Danny has to deal with is timing.  By that I mean that he has 30 year old Al Horford (31 in June) and 28 year old IT (not even including possible/probable goners almost 30 year old Amir and 30 year old Jerebko).  These are the two key veterans on our team and they are at or just past their prime.  Sure, we have younger players like 26 year olds Bradley and Crowder but behind them we have a bunch of young'uns.  We have Smart (23), Brown (20), Rozier (23), Olynyk (25) and with 20 year old Zizic and 20 year old Yabby possibly coming in as well as Fultz/Ball/whomever.  Four players in their prime (let's include AB and Jae) and the rest are quite young.  It takes more than 4 solid vets to win a Championship.  When was the last time a young team won the Championship?  Championships are almost always won by elite veterans with a supporting group of formerly elite veterans on their back 9 and up-and-coming youth.  Potential doesn't win Championships, potential achieved does.

If Danny takes the long view then IT and Al will have lost much of their effectiveness by the time the young'uns are ready to step up.  Do we have 3-4 years for Fultz/Ball and Brown and Zizic to achieve their potential and still have IT and Al doing their thing at a high level?  I say no.  That means that these players had better become All-Stars like IT and Al or we have to go out and get some more to replace them as they age.  How will we do that?  By trading some of these players that nobody wants to trade.  

The argument for a slow build is that's the way to do it if you want to be great over time.  I ask "when has that worked?"  Atlanta took that approach back in 2008-2010, when they had all those young players (Josh Smith, Childress, Bibby, Horford) and their fans all said "Oooh, wait until they grow together and develop chemistry.  They'll still be young and have it all!".  Didn't happen.  On the other hand, Danny brought in two future HOFers on their back 9 in Allen and KG and back-filled behind them and Pierce and we competed for 5 years.

Look at GSW and Cleveland and San Antonio.  They are successful Championship contenders and good players are throwing themselves at them at bargain basement prices for the privilege of competing for a ring.  David West, Zaza Pachulia, Deron Williams, Larry Sanders, Javale McGee, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bogut, David Lee.  All players who might not be what they used to be but are still good for 20+mpg at a high level who went to those three teams ring-chasing.  In our case we had PJ Brown, Posey and House.  When they left, but the Big 3 were still here, we got Shaq and O'Neal and Rasheed.  Shaq and O'Neal didn't work out, like Bogut isn't working out for Cleveland, but the concept is proven.  Those guys wanted to play for a team that gave them a shot at a ring more than they wanted personal accolades, spotlight or money.  They already had all of those over the course of many years.  Nothing succeeds like success.  What makes the signing of Al Horford so remarkable is that we were able to sell him on the building, not on the built.  Durant went to GSW because they are built.  LaMarcus Aldridge went to San Antonio, and not the Lakers, because the Spurs were built.  The prospect of the Lakers becoming "his team" when Kobe retired didn't appeal to him.  He wanted a ring more than he wanted the spotlight and glory.  Do you want a ring?  Do you want to be perennial contenders?  You have to be built, not building.  In my opinion, if we make it to the EC Finals this year that will have more of an impact on our future than Fultz/Ball.  They are potentially good players, maybe even great.  If we make the EC Finals that will be potential achieved and high quality players will take note of that.  This is a players league, and high quality players are what you need to win.

I say, anything worth having is worth having now...




bob


.

I don't think Danny has a plan beyond "whenever a decision must be made, make the one that is in the long term best interest of the team." Very Belichekian. If the right trade had presented itself, he would have pulled the trigger. It didn't, so he decided the pick was worth keeping. Above all else, I believe Danny is an opportunist. He is a particularly good opportunist in that he makes sure he is always in play to pounce on an opportunity.

Dboss, in answer to your question, 3 out of 4 of these guys are gone by July - Zeller, Young, Mickey, and/or Green.

Shamrock1000 wrote:I don't think Danny has a plan beyond "whenever a decision must be made, make the one that is in the long term best interest of the team." Very Belichekian. If the right trade had presented itself, he would have pulled the trigger. It didn't, so he decided the pick was worth keeping. Above all else, I believe Danny is an opportunist. He is a particularly good opportunist in that he makes sure he is always in play to pounce on an opportunity.

Shamrock,

"Very Belichickian." That should do it!

Regards

I'm telling you: the stars are aligning, and here's how:

1. Flashback almost 4 years ago. Pierce and Garnett are traded to the Nets for a bevy of draft picks and role players. Steven's was also hired. In his first year, the Celtics go 25-57, 40-42 his second, 48-34 his third year, and in his fourth year he is on pace to take the team over 50 wins. This team continues to get better and better while becoming more competitive against the elites.

2. The Nets are continuing their plunge to the bottom of the NBA and their picks in the foreseeable are controlled by Boston. The Celtics, however, are a very good team and have high draft pick prospects. We can build through the draft to mitigate cap issues and add players that can contribute right away.

3. Golden State and Cleveland are going to be having some salary cap issues. They'll be hard pressed to retain the talent they have. They'll struggle to continue their dominance. LeBron is 32 years old and is playing some of the highest minutes of his career. This wear and tear will take it's toll on him, thus weakening Cleveland's position as the top team in the East. Curry's contract will be up soon, and he's gonna get PAID. This will hurt their flexibility in terms of roster depth.

I think Boston is in a prime position to overtake GSW, CLE, and SA within the next 2 to 3 years. I don't see TOR or WAS reaching the top spot in the East, either. The best move can sometimes be the one you don't make. I applaud Danny for not being hasty. In the long run, this will bear more fruit (provided he drafts well).



KJ

hey bob, so present a scenario that you would have attempted in a trade?