Going forward, what I would do to maximize this team for playoff run

so WHO exactly is that BIG that everyone wants to sign right now?

as far as I can tell the only guy who was bought out and not resigned is Gortat and when I mentioned him most said he was done a couple years ago.

reports online also say he turned DOWN the Bucks and wants to play with GS the rest of this year to get a ring.

so I am wondering just WHO that big is that Danny should sign?

mrkleen09 wrote:

dboss wrote:Finishing my thought on this, when I refer to the mean, I am referring to a statistical measurement.  It is the average.  The larger the data set the more accurate are the findings.

Morris is shooting .405% but  has never been a .405% shooter from deep.  In December he shot a whopping .451% from deep and followed that up with a .363% in January and through 9 games this month he is shooting .325%  I do not think he is having a career year.  He shot the ball exceptionally well for the first 3 months of the year and is now trending back to the mean.  His other measurement are career worthy numbers.

In any event I am going start Gordon Hayward because he is better than Morris overall and I think he needs to be in the starting lineup.

Marcus Smart has surprised everyone with his 3 point shooting but it would be hard to find any evidence that he too is having a career year.  His scoring, assists and rebounds are all down from last year.  His shooting has been better but he is still inconsistent.  His month to month deep ball shooting .176, .370, .322, .429 and .327.  The SG position requires a player that can score the basketball.  Averaging 8.3 PPG is simply not on a level for a starting SG. I'm putting Brown back into the lineup because I think he is a better starting SG than Smart.

The argument against this will be based on all those wonderful wins we had against a collection of inferior teams  with Morris and Smart in the starting lineup.

I was not buying those lofty wins and I cannot buy the current starting lineup.  It's flawed.

Something needs to change so I think a change in the lineup may be needed.  I do not think Brad will make a change now because he has gone down the rabbit hole too far.  

When this team losses a close game those thin margins give us hope but maybe the reason why we lose games that we should win  is because this team  is just not that good.

First off.I know what the mean is.  

But I have to wonder what stats you are looking at, as in Marcus Morris case he is well above the "mean" in every category of note.  You dont have to think he is having a career year, the numbers settle that for us - he is having the best statistical season of his career on a much better team, so all his minutes mean something vs throw away years in Phoenix.  Best Numbers = Career Year.



There is no one on this board (except for Rosealie) who has been a bigger Gordon Hayward supporter, and while they need him to score and distribute the ball - he is not currently a better defender than Marcus Morris.  So unless Gordon is on fire, if I am the coach, Marcus get the minutes in a close game down the stretch.

As for the Brown vs Smart debate - this one is again about who is hot and how close the game is.  I could even agree that Brown should be the starter for a bit, cant hurt.  But under no circumstances do I want Marcus Smart on the bench in a close game.  His Plus/Minus and defensive intangibles make him the most valuable player on the court in a grind it out playoff 4th quarter.

In the end, the way they are playing right now - means all possibilities should be on the table and no one aside from Kyrie and Horford should have their starting roles locked in.  So in that way, I think we agree more than disagree.

Kleen my apologies, I was  comparing his production last year to this year.

I am seeing differing defensive rating numbers than the ones you posted from another source

According to NBA.com  https://stats.nba.com/players/defense/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1


Morris has a 106.4 rating
Hayward is 104.4 rating
Smart is 104.5  rating
Brown is 103.8 rating

If these numbers are accurate than the big difference between these players is a matter of playing time.

I think both Morris and Smart are rather slow by NBA standards and that Brown and Hayward are quicker.  I also think that Smart who has played starter minutes even when he came off the bench is better suited as a rotational option than Brown.  

Hayward still has allstar level talent and he has worked his way back and looks to me that his playing time should be increased.  Both Brown and Hayward should be back in the starting lineup as soon as possible.

In all fairness this is a conundrum in dividing up playing time.

kdp59 wrote:so WHO exactly is that BIG that everyone wants to sign right now?

as far as I can tell the only guy who was bought out and not resigned is Gortat and when I mentioned him most said he was done a couple years ago.

reports online also say he turned DOWN the Bucks and wants to play with GS the rest of this year to get a ring.

so I am wondering just WHO that big is that Danny should sign?

kdp,

I don't have a name to offer, but I don't think it needs to be anyone major.

I'm talking strictly someone who can defend and board for a few minutes.

If they sign someone from overseas at the end of their season, or find a free agent mowing his lawn, I'm good.

I think we need another/any big body now, but go for quality in the offseason.

Regards

Once Kanter signed elsewhere Gortat would be a logical choice.

If Al or Baynes gets hurt we are screwed.

I do not know about you guys but I am tired of seeing us get hammered on the glass so often. Maybe you cannot fix everything but securing more rebounds is fixable by adding a guy like Gortat

There is no way this year's Hayward is a better defender than Morris, I don't see his " quickness", and his reluctance to take the big shot is a giant handicap at crunch time. Defensive numbers are affected by a lot of factors. If you are playing against , primarily, reserves, your numbers should be better , should they not? This isn't a knock on Hayward. He just isn't where he needs to be yet. I agree with coach Stevens that HE (Stevens) needs to get better, and honestly, his stoic demeanor is starting to get on my nerves. Show a little emotion once in a while, Brad! And make some freaking in -game adjustments.

jrleftfoot wrote:There is no  way this year's Hayward is a better defender than Morris, I don't see his " quickness", and his reluctance to take the big shot is a giant handicap at crunch time. Defensive numbers are affected by a lot of factors. If you are playing against , primarily, reserves, your numbers should be better , should they not? This isn't a knock on Hayward. He just isn't where he needs to be yet. I agree with coach Stevens that HE (Stevens)  needs to get better, and honestly, his stoic demeanor is starting to get on my nerves. Show a little emotion once in a while, Brad! And make some freaking in -game adjustments.

According to the def ratings Hayward is a lot better than we might think. It is time for the $30 million dollar man to get more game time.

He can get it from Rozier. The Celtics are soft enough without taking Smart and Morris out of the lineup. I have a feeling we're not going to agree about this. I respect your opinion , but characterizing the current version of Hayward as quicker than anybody this side of Greg Monroe seems like a stretch to me.

jrleftfoot wrote:He can get it from Rozier. The Celtics are soft enough without taking Smart and Morris out of the lineup. I have a feeling we're not going to agree about this. I respect your opinion , but characterizing the current version of Hayward as quicker than anybody this side of Greg Monroe seems like a stretch to me.

Hey foot

Hayward looked pretty quick to me once he started to find his pace but then he has an ankle sprain and it kicks him back a bit.  Hayward may not be the most physical guy on the court but he still fights for positioning and rebounds so I am not concerned about the softness issue.  The only softness that this team has is from the neck up.

It is no stretch to suggest that Hayward is quicker than Morris.  You know why?  Because Morris is not quick.  

As far as Brown vs Smart as starting off guards, I believe Brown is far superior offensively and plays defense well enough to deserve to start.  This year has been very interesting because Marcus has been making open 3 point shots for the first time in 5 years.  He has been making shots that he would normally miss.  But if being checked and not wide open he offers little in the way of offensive creativity.    His ability to create off the dribble is very limited.  

Smart is an indispensable defensive weapon on this team but as a starting SG he is grossly inadequate.    Averaging 8.2 PPG, a career low in rebounds at 2.9 and have the lowest assists in 3 years at 4.1 should lead one to contemplate the value of reducing Browns footprint on this team.

What really gave me pause was when I looked at how he has performed against the top of the Eastern Conference.  He is producing less this year as as a starter compared to last year as a top rotation guy across the board (steals are up a bit) and the numbers become even more ghastly against top teams.

If I am missing something I would like to know what it is because Boston is 8.5 games back in a year that they were suppose to challenge for the top spot in the conference.  They have an under .500 records against quality team and under .500 on the road.  This is not the fault of Marcus Smart but he is part of the problem.

What you may be missing is that the 8.5 game deficit is hardly a product of Morris and Smart's insertion into the starting lineup. I'd say that GH's ineffectiveness, Rozier's crappy play, and the fact that we don't have a player over 6'10 have more to do with the deficit than lineup changes that gave the team an immediate, if temporary boost. If Hayward start's playing better, which he has shown signs of doing, I expect he'll play more. Right now, Stevens seems to see him as the top scoring option off the bench.

no player over 6-10 is spot on for sure.

nut who needs big men in todays NBA they all say....as good teams are all stocking up on just that, big men.

jrleftfoot wrote:What you may be missing is that the 8.5 game deficit is hardly a product of Morris and Smart's insertion into the starting lineup. I'd say that GH's ineffectiveness, Rozier's crappy play, and the fact that we don't have a player over 6'10 have more to do with the deficit than lineup changes that gave the team an immediate, if temporary boost. If Hayward start's playing better, which he has shown signs of doing, I expect he'll play more. Right now, Stevens seems to see him as the top scoring option off the bench.

Foot I do not think I am missing that much here. It is all about MPG. Brown and Hayward are better all around players than Smart and Morris. They need to be logging 30+ minutes per game. Hayward has already started to play better and just had a slight setback with the ankle sprain but his confidence level is restored. I really was unsure if Hayward would get back this year. I am no longer unsure about that.

The Celtics are struggling to win because they got two starters on the bench that are better than two starters in the lineup.

kdp59 wrote:no player over 6-10 is spot on for sure.

nut who needs big men in todays NBA they all say....as good teams are all stocking up on just that, big men.

Williams is 6 ' 10 , long and athletic but will not be playing this year. Our frontline definitely needs some attention, I cannot argue with that.

You could be 100% right. The lineup changes you propose might propel the Celts to number 19. There are a lot of reasons for player slippage over the course of a season. Guys who have played more may be more fatigued than guys who have seen less court time. Guys might have nagging injuries , like Brown's early season wrist injury , which I , for one , was totally unaware of. Rotational changes may well be in order. I'm gonna throw out a couple of irrefutable numbers, not because they prove me right, but because I think they are more meaningful than some of the stats we play around with. The Celtics started the year with the lineup you are proffering. They were 10-10, and more than half of their deficit in the standings was built up during that time period. Since the two Marcuses joined the starting lineup they are 27-13. I agree that Brown is a better player than them and that Hayward has been , and hopefully will be. That doesn't mean that inserting them in the starting lineup is the right move, because of the way guys play with one another. Anyway, its all just a matter of opinion. Maybe we can start righting the ship tomorrow night. As Yogi Berra said, its getting late early.

There is a lot of good analysis on this thread. I have been saying all season that their is a chemistry problem on this team, and now I am reading this same criticism a lot in the press these days. The Celtics are indeed a frustrating team to follow this year. When they have it going, they can compete with anyone. Yet, sometimes they look terrible, and even worse, sometimes they do seem like they don't enjoy playing with each other. I am beginning to think that maybe it is not just chemistry, but rather that they might have a little bit of an identity problem. They don't know exactly what type of team they are. As a result, it seems like players are sometimes uncertain of their roles. This leads to under-performance and distractions. On one hand, they have Kyrie, one of the most offensively gifted players in the league. Typically, the offense would clearly be built around Kyrie. GH would be his second fiddle, and everyone else would be role players (obviously the GH injury messed this up). This had been the NBA model for success for the past several decades - one or two dominant players surrounded by veterans who clearly understood their roles. The Warriors and the Spurs have recently shifted this paradigm a little. They certainly have stars, but they have a more egalitarian systems based on moving the ball to find the highest percentage shot. Both styles of play are demonstrated winners, but perhaps a team must commit to one of the two? Switching back and forth might be too much to ask. This idea could even be related to the "Celtics are better without Kyrie" fallacy. It is not that they are necessarily better without Kyrie, but maybe either/both the necessary offensive philosophy is not embedded deeply enough in the team such that it is second nature. Also, the personnel on the team, though undoubtedly talented, may not be suited for the typical star-centric team. Simply put, the young players haven't accumulated enough wisdom to be willing to sacrifice touches/stats to act as a support system for the stars. Without those sacrifices, this system cannot operate optimally. Kyrie is a ball dominant player, and his abilities and worth are maximized when he has the ball. Kyrie has the ability to lead a contender constructed around his skills and style of play, and such a team is a viable option. On the other hand, the Celtics play during Kyrie's absence has demonstrated they can play and succeed with a more ball-movement type of game. They also probably enjoy this style of play since they are more involved, and it is better for their individual stat lines. Whether that style, with this exact personnel, is a real contender is another question. In summary, I think the Celtics might not have a clear identity. Are they are traditional star-oriented team where players have clear roles, or are they a more modern egalitarian team based on moving the ball to find the high percentage shot? Some of this ambiguity might lie on Brad's shoulders - it is up to him to install the style/philosophy - but maybe the team Ainge has assembled isn't ideal for either type of play. Hopefully there is still enough time to figure it out, because when they are clicking, they are hard to beat.

jrleftfoot wrote:You could be 100% right. The lineup changes you propose might propel the Celts to number 19. There are a lot of reasons for player slippage over the course of a season. Guys who have played more may be more fatigued than guys who have seen less court time. Guys might have nagging injuries , like Brown's early season wrist injury , which I , for one , was totally unaware of. Rotational changes may well be in order. I'm gonna throw out a couple of irrefutable numbers, not because they prove me right, but because I think they are more meaningful than some of the stats we play around with. The Celtics started the year with the lineup you are proffering. They were 10-10, and  more than half of their deficit in the standings was built up during that time period. Since the two Marcuses joined the starting lineup they are 27-13. I agree that Brown is a better player than them and that Hayward has been , and hopefully will be.  That doesn't mean that inserting them in the starting lineup is the right move, because of the way guys play with one another. Anyway, its all just a matter of opinion. Maybe we can start righting the ship tomorrow night. As Yogi Berra said, its getting late early.

I am never 100% right. I am 100% sure about that.

I hope we can right the ship tomorrow night. Let's see how Morris does. In 3 games this year he is only averaging 8.3 points against the Raptors.

Yes they are 27-13 over a big stretch since they made a lineup change. But can we be certain that the improvement was because of the line up changes? You know I did a fairly detailed review of who we have played and it revealed we had one or two quality wins against quality competition. To date the team remains under .500 on the road and under .500 against at or above .500 teams. I think those stats are more revealing. I'm just saying. The configuration of the current lineup combined with a lack of equitable minute distribution for better players is the only thing that pops out at me.

Let's see what happens manana noche.

kdp59 wrote:so WHO exactly is that BIG that everyone wants to sign right now?

as far as I can tell the only guy who was bought out and not resigned is Gortat and when I mentioned him most said he was done a couple years ago.

reports online also say he turned DOWN the Bucks and wants to play with GS the rest of this year to get a ring.

so I am wondering just WHO that big is that Danny should sign?

Okay you want a name, I got a name....

Bam Adebayo, he’s raw, physical, does the dirty work and has upside, could easily further grow into a very good role player, helping us in paint, 2nd year on rookie contract. Gortat is too old and shot. Too bad trade deadline has passed, I would have gladly traded him straight up for Rozier. I predict he will have long career as a bigger Paul Silas type.

I like Bam. That's his nickname. Edrice Adebayo. Miami. Can rebound. Good ft %. How is he available?

worcester wrote:I like Bam. That's his nickname. Edrice Adebayo. Miami. Can rebound. Good ft %. How is he available?

Danny’s job, too late now....wish we could have got him, just the type of player we need.

Or maybe we have that player, RW, he just never plays....

cowens/oldschool wrote:

kdp59 wrote:so WHO exactly is that BIG that everyone wants to sign right now?

as far as I can tell the only guy who was bought out and not resigned is Gortat and when I mentioned him most said he was done a couple years ago.

reports online also say he turned DOWN the Bucks and wants to play with GS the rest of this year to get a ring.

so I am wondering just WHO that big is that Danny should sign?

Okay you want a name, I got a name....

Bam Adebayo, he’s raw, physical, does the dirty work and has upside, could easily further grow into a very good role player, helping us in paint, 2nd year on rookie contract. Gortat is too old and shot. Too bad trade deadline has passed, I would have gladly traded him straight up for Rozier. I predict he will have long career as a bigger Paul Silas type.

there are a lot of players who would fit the bill, but we are past the trade deadline now. we are looking at buy out types and players coming back form overseas for this year now.

On the subject of adding bigs...

If it's just to add a little punch to the center/forward spot, and just for this season, there are a bunch that are coming back from overseas. Cost is low, but you get added depth in the front-court. At worst they're a couple of boards, a block and six fouls.

Just a few that might be examples, if not bona fide candidates;

Cole Aldrich

Marreese Speights

Johnny O'Bryant

Dakari Johnson

Not All-Stars or permanent pieces by any means. Just a guy you can stick in the paint for a few minutes here and there and let him see if he can disrupt and change the flow.

Lets get Carmelo Anthony, Just kidding.

Any word on how much longer Baynes will be out? He does wonders for their toughness and hustle doing the little things, like setting monster screens. He is a glue player. Cheers for his team and seems happy to get the playing time he is given. He can’t come back fast enough.
Unless there is a major change for the better between now and the end of the season, there will be major turnover of this team. I hope it does not include shipping our youth out to acquire AD.
The bottom line is the team, all, need to realize they have no chance unless everyone puts their head and heart into their work and to pull for one another. They win together and they lose together. No more negativity allowed.

Baynes is the key. He did a lot of good dirty work/intangibles last year that has been missing since he has been out. We had the 2 most terrible games back to back, Bulls and Raptors, so glad that is behind us, but am seeing a lot of flaws in this starting line up.

If it’s up to me I go with Kyrie Jaylen Jayson Al Baynes, that was the starting line up last year in playoffs with Rozier in for Kyrie. I’m starting to think more traditional and less positionless ball even though versatility is a good thing. We need the toughness that Baynes brings, letting Al roam and be more effective against less physical players. Time to get Kyrie and 2 J’s all on the same page and using their talents to make each one better, hopefully this can lead to more running, passing and highlight play dunks that really can lift up a team. We have those kind of players, time to unleash them. Kyrie has to pick his spots, his no 1 goal is to get 2 J’s going early and often, then when appropriate, take over the game as he can. This will make life easier for him and is what Bird did and Jordan figured out how to do later when he started winning.

Maybe I should be coaching this team, Brad should be able to figure this out, the starting line up right now does not cut it.....