Hayward trade rumors

https://www.celticsblog.com/2020/10/30/21535788/long-term-deal-best-option-for-gordon-hayward-celtics-boston-trade-pacers-nba-offseason-free-agency



Celtics, Hayward are better off with long-term deal rather than trade



Hayward should desire long-term guaranteed money and stability, while the Celtics have the best chance to win a championship with five elite wings for the next two seasons.


By Bobby Manning@RealBobManning  

Oct 30, 2020, 12:44pm EDT



Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images



The NBA salary cap aims to prevent teams as powerfully constructed as the Celtics from staying together. Marcus Smart re-signed in Boston after his market stalled for $13 million average annual value, before growing into an elite defender who can pass and score 20 points. Boston squeaked out enough cap space to sign Kemba Walker last offseason, pairing him with two stars on rookie contracts in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Those ingredients not only form championships, but multiple, just as an abnormal cap spike brought the Warriors Kevin Durant alongside an injury-influenced Stephen Curry contract, a Draymond Green second round selection, and a Finals MVP in Andre Iguodala. That serendipity produced back-to-back rings.

The Celtics aren’t there yet, but nearly made the 2020 NBA Finals. Depth remains a concern, Boston’s top-end talent needs to prove playoff-consistent, and they could use center depth. It’s a long to-do list for Danny Ainge and the team, but none of that should be accomplished by forfeiting the best fourth option in the NBA, Gordon Hayward.


$34 million is not $34 million

Two important considerations have shifted the consensus that Hayward would opt-in to such a hefty figure in recent weeks. First, Hayward is technically the best free agent in a weak 2020 class, with Anthony Davis expected to remain with the Lakers and few teams maintaining cap space. Second, his $34 million player option also won’t translate to $34 million, since the NBA’s ongoing CBA discussions in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic revenue losses will inevitably end with player salary reductions through escrow withholdings — possibly 30%.

That places both Hayward and the Celtics in a precarious position. Hayward can opt-in, but he would subject himself to salary reduction with no guaranteed money beyond 2021 and allow Boston to freely trade him anywhere. The NBA owners will collect escrow payments as long as the on-paper salary of the players surpasses their effective 50-50 revenue split. With the league likely recouping more revenue each year, future salary becomes more valuable than present guarantees for Hayward.


Hayward could not be on the Celtics next year

Boston should and would consider trades for Hayward, given his $34 million cap commitment would leave the team with $0 in extra cap space to use if he departs, as Ryan Bernadoni described well here. Opting out isn’t a sure success for him either. Only the Atlanta Hawks can offer long-term prospects, warm weather, and legitimate money this offseason. Zach Lowe and Bobby Marks mentioned them as a sleeper destination this week. There are few one-year deal options available for Atlanta to kick back their $44 million in potential cap space and they’re a young team in need of a veteran. It makes sense — at least as leverage for Hayward.

Hayward leaving in free agency is the worst-case scenario for the Celtics. They would still only have a mid-level exception, slide Smart into the starting lineup and have no legitimate bench depth next year. It wouldn’t be hard to imagine Boston losing in the second round or earlier without Hayward or a

Hayward leaving in free agency is the worst-case scenario for the Celtics. They would still only have a mid-level exception, slide Smart into the starting lineup and have no legitimate bench depth next year. It wouldn’t be hard to imagine Boston losing in the second round or earlier without Hayward or a rookie or sophomore outperforming expectations, so let’s absolve that from our minds.



Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images


The opt-in

An opt-in isn’t ideal for the Celtics either, as they’d still need to weigh the short and long term. Danny Ainge would still listen to Hayward trades. A healthy Celtics with Hayward playing well at least returns to the Eastern Conference Finals conversation, but may not win a championship against a powerful West. Making 2021 an “all-in” season is not smart management.

If Hayward opts-in and succeeds, he’ll likely find a richer long-term deal in the 2021 offseason that Boston could not compete with. If not, both sides likely part ways anyway or reach a bargain with diminished prospects for both sides. That risk remains if the Celtics and Hayward discuss a new, long-term contract now, but it’d give both sides immediate security and possibly extend the championship window.

Hayward averaged historic production for a 21% usage player — 17.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.1 assists on 50% shooting with a 38.3% three-point stroke. He passes as well as any Celtic, defends, and rebounds with strong size and awareness. He’s definitively the best fourth option in the NBA and Boston’s top four — when healthy — is the league’s greatest consolidation of top-end talent and a lineup they should try to preserve for their contention window.



Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images


Trade options

The Celtics should trade Hayward from a position of strength if he opts-in. He is hardly a damaged asset and his market should be carefully monitored in order to maintain future contracts and talent on the roster.

Trades may bring in players in areas of need, like a center or bench scorer. The Celtics will not receive a comparable talent to Hayward though, at least on the court. Speculation floating around the NBA ether right now range from Andre Drummond who’d play behind Daniel Theis, or Zach Collins, the injury-prone yet young Trailblazers big, or Indiana’s underwhelming Myles Turner. They’re all positional needs for Boston, but ultimately, they’d be getting the short end of the stick in terms of talent.

The Athletic ranked five Celtics in its top-125, something only four NBA teams can boast. That would not be the case with Collins, Turner, or Drummond. Those trade packages would most likely also include tradeable contracts, future picks, and ultimately, a palatable return that would slot into Hayward’s salary that Boston would otherwise lose if he walked.

However, claiming the moment matters, particularly in an NBA where the landscape can change every other year. Walker and Hayward seemingly share a short window to bolster Tatum and Brown’s short-term prospects. While the long-term viability of a Tatum-Brown core needs to be maintained, Boston won’t have cap space until the summer of 2022, no significant draft capital or tradeable contracts besides Marcus Smart. Hayward can be converted into the latter two.

There are cases against Hayward. “Injury prone” might be an unfair tag, but they happened and his absences have been felt in crucial moments, including most recently against the Heat. He may not return as strong as he did in 2019-20, or could decline throughout a long-term contract. The same remains true for Walker (signed through 2023), so the C’s should utilize their remaining best simultaneously. As Ainge said, we hardly got to know this team.

For what it’s worth, it’s doubtful option and other contract deadlines occur before the 2020 NBA Draft on November 18th, rendering Hayward untradeable on Draft Night.


Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images


Hayward’s motive

What would make sense for both Hayward and the Celtics? If Hayward wants to join a competitive team, Atlanta could conceivably offer Hayward $18-20 million, re-sign DeAndre Bembry for $7.1 million, pick #6 overall ($5.1 million), and still maintain more than $12 million to roll into 2021-22 on a one-year deal(s). A three-year, $60 million contract works for both Hayward and Atlanta, especially if 2022-23 sees full-scale salaries return.

The Celtics could offer a similar deal. Boston pays luxury tax regardless of where the league decides to place the threshold in a COVID-era salary cap. A long-term Hayward contract keeps the team expensive and then eventually a repeater tax team, but signing Hayward to $20-22 million in 2021 and roughly $65 million over three years reduces Boston’s luxury tax payment ($1.50 per $1) in 2021, compared to a $34 million Hayward hit on the 2020-2021 books.

If security is Hayward’s motivation this fall, he has options. New noise around his decision shows Hayward as a valuable player with leverage, whether every Celtics fan believes it or not. For the Celtics, keeping Hayward is a luxury and luxuries win championships. The team is far worse — probably not a contender at all — if he departs outright. He sorts out the roster’s hierarchal concerns as a glue guy and if he can work out a new deal in Boston, he could fulfill his (and Stevens’) goal of completing “unfinished business.”

There isn’t a clear right move. Given the reported development this week though, Celtics fans should hope a Hayward departure isn’t in the cards, or his value will quickly become apparent in his absence.


Bob


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kdp59 wrote:from Hoopshype this morning:


Ryen Russillo: I’ve heard Gordon Hayward does want out, but I don’t know if he’s gonna get the money. He’s not opting out of that huge number unless he knows he’s getting the deal. – via Bill Simmons, Ryen Russillo @ The Ringer

kdp,

If he really does want out then it seems to me it can only be for a few reasons (these are NOT mutually exclusive and, of course, I may have overlooked an option or two.  Feel free to add them in comments):

1.  He thinks he's going to make more than $34M/year.  
2.  He wants a longer contract, more years and more total dollars.  
3.  He isn't happy here but doesn't want to walk away from $34M just to escape.  

A.  If 1, and I think it's pretty damn unlikely, he has until Friday to make up his mind.  No option that includes the presumption of #1 makes any sense to me considering the losses the league has taken this past year and the losses they might be facing this year with an abbreviated season.  Why would a team sign a contract of even greater size than they could get by just telling Gordon's agent to have him opt out and come there?

B.  If 2, and I think that's possible, then what does it say that Danny isn't fashioning that deal?  I have been rebuked by no one less than Rosalie for damning Hayward for testing the waters but, at this point, the market interest should be known to Gordon, his agent and Danny.   There are nibbles that satisfy Gordon or there aren't.  If there aren't then he either opts in for the year or he talks to Danny about an extension.  If Danny is amenable then I would assume that negotiation will become a done deal not too far behind the league announcing next year's salary cap.

C.  If 1 and 2, then see B above.  Can't blame him, but who is going to pay an oft injured almost 31 year old that kind of money?  It is in Danny best interests, as I understand the effect of Gordon's departure on the team's salary cap, to not have Gordon just walk away.  Maybe GYSO could illuminate this better than I.  

D.  If 3 then Danny will trade him asap.  Danny has shown, on numerous opportunities, that he learns an unhappy lesson very quickly and goes out of his way to not repeat it.  He saw Kyrie's effect on the locker room because Kyrie was unhappy and he saw how he had to scramble to sign Kemba, for better or worse, to replace the uncompensated loss of Kyrie.  In fact, he had to trade Rozier (no big woof on my part, I was done with Scary Terry, but it was an additional asset given up just to offset an asset already lost) to complete the Kemba signing.  He saw Tony Allen walk and get nothing in return.  He saw Ray Allen walk and get nothing in return.  If Gordon is here one more year strictly for the money and isn't happy in the role and/or minutes assigned to him by Brad then Danny will be loathe to just give up a still-valuable player for nothing...again.  I am not saying Gordon is unhappy here, to be clear I have no idea and have seen/read no rumors to support that conclusion, but the team would know, his teammates would know, his good friend and mentor Brad Stevens would know and if that's the case then Trader Danny would know.

E.  If 2 and 3 then Danny will try to negotiate a deal for some kind of sign-and-trade.  It might be a slow-mo train wreck, where Danny will need a few months before he can trade Gordon because of a trade moratorium on newly signed players or because the new team wants to see Gordon play a few games to confirm his health but I don't see Danny keeping a player who doesn't want to be here, in general, and I certainly don't see him signing an unhappy player to a multi-year extension with any credible intent to keep him for the length of that contract.

To repeat my conclusions:  We should know the answer to 1 by Friday, we should know the answer to 2 around when the league announces the salary cap (which will be around when free agency signings can begin, whenever that is) and we might know the answer to #3 at or around Draft Day, 11/18 (which is exactly 2 weeks from today).


Bob


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https://sports.yahoo.com/nba-rumors-gordon-hayward-wants-164116288.html



NBA Rumors: Gordon Hayward wants out of Celtics contract for 2020-21 season


Darren Hartwell
NBC Sports Boston

Nov 4, 2020, 8:41 AM



Gordon Hayward's future with the Boston Celtics is getting murkier by the day.

Hayward can earn $34.1 million next season by opting into the final year of his Celtics contract, and many assumed he'd take that option in light of the injuries and inconsistencies that have prevented him from reaching his full potential.

It sounds like the veteran forward is leaning the other way, though. On Tuesday's episode of "The Bill Simmons Podcast," The Ringer's Ryen Russillo reported Hayward "does want out" of the final year of his deal.

ESPN's Zach Lowe and Bobby Marks recently hinted at some "buzz" that Hayward may opt out and seek a long-term deal with a new team, much like Al Horford did when he spurned the Celtics to sign a four-year, $109 pact with the Philadelphia 76ers.

It appears that "buzz" is growing louder.

There are logical reasons why Hayward would turn down $34.1 million from the Celtics, one of which is financial: It may benefit the 30-year-old to sign a long-term deal now rather than wait until next offseason, when NBA teams may have less cash to spend after a shortened 2020-21 season. (The 2021 free agent class is set to be historically loaded, as well.)

It's also possible Hayward just wants a change in scenery after suffering a rash of injuries that have relegated him to the Celtics' fourth option (at best) behind Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker.

As Russillo pointed out, though, Hayward would want some assurance of a long-term deal before jumping ship.

"He's not opting out of that huge number unless he knows he's getting the deal," Russillo added.

Hayward also is the subject of trade rumors, and with no deadline set for player options, everything is still on the table -- including him taking a page from Horford's book this winter.


Bob


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kdp59,

Please explain one more time to the negotiationally challenged why we don't get immediate cap room space if Hayward opts out.

Thank you so much!

db