Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks 2024 NBA Finals

Just some "Final" thoughts before things "FINAL"LY kick off tonight.  

I'm going to try not to make this melodramatic, but let's face it, Boston has brought a lot of all that drama on themselves, whether they like it or not.  They are living in the proverbial fishbowl.  I've said this before, but we as fans and the media have every right to nitpick and praise everything our favorite team/organization does and what every other team/organization does for that matter.  We do indirectly pay their salaries so we do what we do!!  

Joe has done a great job keeping things on an even keel this past week and a half despite the media's attempts to create stories where there are none.  That's just what the media does.  Their livelihoods depend on it.  Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have mirrored their coaches actions and kept the noise to an absolute minimum.  There will be no "I've got Kryrie or Luka" BS from this team.    

But what's going to make the difference?  Two teams enter the arena.  And by the end, only one team will walk out with the trophy.  We've heard all the yap.  Now it's time to play the game we love.  The only thing I can tell you with great accuracy and certainty is one of these two teams will be champions.  That's it.  I know who I'd LIKE to win it all.  But here's why I think Boston is finally going to cross over.

1.  KP is going to do just enough to help.  The more and more I think about him and now missing most of the playoffs and coming in here on the Finals stage for the very first time and the injury...I'm going to expect him to do just enough to help.  He won't be the KP we saw during the regular season.  But if we need someone to space the floor and zone bust and hit a few 3's, he's our man.  That takes all the pressure and the spotlight off of him where he can operate best.  

2.  JT will show up.  Big Time.  Yes.  All the pressure is upon him, like it or not, to show up and not pull another Playoff Jimmy Harden act.  All the way through.  He will not disappoint. No other performance makes sense.    

3.  Defense will determine the outcome.  DAL thinks they have defense but they don't.  They've thrown some things together over the last couple of months that look like defense but it's still DAL and it's still Kryrie and it's still Luka.  Stripes don't change.  Joe is going to reduce Kryrie and Luka's games to that of wobbly-legged, inept 3rd graders by taking a page from the KD/BKN series a couple of years ago.  You can't shoot and score accurately if you don't have your legs about you and you are being swarmed by bees all the time.  Those two might even get into a bit of foul trouble and get so bent out of shape with the wheels coming off that they get a T or two.  But let's not waste anyone's time comparing our defense to DAL's defense.  

4.  Al is going to contribute in a big way.  His whole career is coming down to this series.  He will not disappoint at all.  He's Rudy.  "You ready for this, champ?!"  "I've been ready for this my whole life!!"  We will not let this slip from his hands.   

5.  You know what?  I'm going to give the ever so slight edge in the coaching battle to Jason Kidd.  But Coach Joe (and Al for that matter and possibly others) has something in his back pocket.  The great intangible.  The difference maker.  An edge.  He wears it on his sleeve and on his shirts and in all his actions and words so everyone knows where he's coming from.  God is not a Celtic fan.  Nor is He any kind of fan for any team.  But He does shine very favorably on those who shine back on Him and give Him all the glory.  I do know that for a fact as I have seen it around me my whole life with my own eyes and it never fails.  I don't know about Mr. Kidd.  Maybe he's more private about his faith.  He does have a potential telltale sign of calmness and humbleness about him.  But you know what you are getting with Coach Joe.  He's already made it known who's in charge.  Win or lose, it's there.  Most of the time you just don't see it coming.  DAL will be so beat down, they will just hand it to us. 

6.  DAL can't play any better.  Boston can play a lot better.  Law of Averages.  That one works every time as well.  

7.  Pritchard and Doogie.  They will step up.  Doogie hits his first shot and the ball starts rolling for him.  We know Pritchard always hits his first shot.     

So the house is divided here.  I am saying Boston in 4.  My wife is leaning toward Boston in 4 but may change it today to match the boys.  My two oldest sons are saying Boston in 5.  Still a horse race.  The Old Man is right!!

db

I had a vision of the 2024 NBA Championship banner being raised to the rafters by the Celtics Team.

I'm just looking forward to changing my avatar soon!!

db

The numbers only confirm what the eye test tells us about JT.

He leads the team in Isolation plays (7.2 possessions per game)  His shooting percentage is 33% with an EFG of 36.9%.  That is NOT good.

Luka and  Kyrie go ISO per game on average of 4.9 and 4.5 respectively.  However they are both significantly more efficient (LD 44.9% FG and 55.8% EFG....KI 50%FG and 55.6% EFG)

Jaylen goes ISO 3.4 possessions per game while shooting 55.3% and 61.8% EFG.  The best among the 4 players but with fewer ISO possessions.

So what types of possessions does JT do well in?

PNR ball handler 4.5 possessions and shooting  47.7% and 61.4 EFG.  

Spot up 2.6 possessions at  46.4% and 53.6% EFG

Transition 3.4  possessions and 67.6FG with and EFG of 73.5


He does not shoot well in post ups (41.5% FG and EFG 41.5)  He does not score well  off cuts, dribble handoffs and off screens.

JT needs to reduce the number of ISO possessions.

CJ should put him in more PNR actions and play him off the ball for more spot up opportunities.  JT also need to get out in transition more.

The perception that I had that Kuka and Kyrie are ISO heavy players is hereby dismissed.

Let me add one more layer to help us put things in perspective.  These are playoff numbers.  In 10 playoffs games SGA led all players with 10.2 ISO possessions followed by Brunson who was slightly ahead of JT at 7.5 ISO plays per game.

JB is our most efficient ISO scorer (3.4 possessions) although PP has the best FG percentage but since PP takes less than 1 ISO shot per game, his production is not really impactful.

Very interesting stats, dboss.  Thank you for posting those.  

From watching those two I'd believe the Kryrie ISO stats more than the Luka ISO stats.  When Kryrie gets the ball, it's like throwing the ball to Kevin McHale on the block.  You ain't getting it back.  He's either scoring, getting fouled or both.    

Luka holds the ball an awful lot early on and deep into the shot clock and those possessions may be by definition an ISO play, but his assist stats come in about double Kryrie's.  That means he's passing off twice as much as Kryrie does and getting others to score that are open.  But he is not going to see those guys open as we stick to our man on defense.  We switch but don't double unless a really good opportunity presents itself for a turnover.  May have to bump that up a bit and give them different looks.  Luka's just not that good.  Sorry.  He may have been all-world up until now, but we are about to witness the complete mental and physical unraveling of the Mavs.  

JT starts to tighten up when the game gets close and resorts to ISO ball.  He does need to shed that albatross and has for the most part.  If you are effective at it, go for it.  But he is not.  Not with those numbers you have put out above.  

db

P.S.  Again, remember, we gain nothing in these first two games.  We win both?  All we get is an at-a-boy, you were supposed to win both at home.  Last time this season we have to go through with the first two games at home.  We're done losing at home and when all is said and done, we will be undefeated on the road for the playoffs.

And one more thing.  The Law of Averages most definitely applies to ALL the blow back Boston has been receiving since the dawn of the JT/JB era.  Equal and opposite as well, Sir Isaac.  

The ONLY way that can be achieved is BOS in 4.  A couple of close games but for sure 2 blowouts.  We know JT by himself is good for the next two games at home.  So let's save the two blowouts for G3 & G4, cementing our undefeated dominance on the road.  

db

Oh, they're coming, oldschool!!

db

G2  look for JT to put the ball in the hole more. I see a 30 point game coming from him.

You cannot keep a great scorer down for too long.  Plus the Mavs strategy to bring 2 and 3 extra defenders to check him was a disaster.  The Celtics are wired to seek out the open man and that is what JT did.  After the game he stated that he needs to stop turning the ball over.  

The Celtics defense worked to perfection.  They took away the corner 3, they took away the lobs and they contained both Irving and Luka.  

You expect that Irving and Doncic will play more aggressively on offense.  But they cannot do it by themselves.  Therefore as long as Boston keeps the supporting cast off the stage this play will get rave reviews.

I heard that Jason Kidd said that he hopes his team makes more 2 pointers than us.  Good luck with that philosophy.    

We know exactly what the Celtics want to do.  They want to take and make more 3 pointers than their opponents.  

The Celtics can and will play 5 out on offense and with the return of KP they can provide a steady diet even when a center goes to the bench.  

You should anticipate that the Mavs supporting cast will come out with a higher level of physicality.  The Celtics will need to meet and exceed that physicality and establish exceptional spacing and a superior pace to their offense.

The Celtics are the better defensive team because they have multi-positional defenders and they know how to execute the game plan.  

On offense the Mavs cannot outscore us because our shot profile is designed to score a lot of points.  I look for them to overplay passing lanes and do a lot more bumps and handsy defense to disrupt our flow.  

I believe bringing KP off the bench makes sense for Game 2.  Whatever is going on, the Mavs will be forced to make a major adjustment 5 minutes into the game.

The Mavs have been bringing Lively up top to defend JT.  JT just needs to get into his bag quicker by attacking immediately and making sure that he hits the defenders first on those drives.  The best way to attack length is a full frontal assault.

Sam Hauser finally made a few shots and he played very solid defense.  P Squared went scoreless (0-7) but I will bet that he will knock down some shots in G2.  The Mavs really do not have anyone who can stay in front of him.

I expect the Celtics to win G2.

Jason Kidd trying to light a fire and burn the. Two J’s. He may regret opening his big mouth. Do no pit these guys against each other, they have been through too much to let that happen. You are right Dboss, what he did do is probably light a fire under Jayson Tatum. So I expect a big game from him, triple team or not. Someone is going to put Lively in his own place if he thinks he is going to push JT around too many times

Kidd playing the Jays card.

Jt has passed 61% of the time on dribble drives.  Sacrificing his scoring for a more complete team offensive attack.

Kidd is trying to distract the Celtics from beating his team a$$.

It is not going to work.  As a matter of fact it will probably have the opposite affect.

Celtics fans could care less who is the top guy because on any given game we got at least 6 top guys.

Media searching for a sound bite to help them drive their own misguided narrative.

He hopefully just lit the fire under JT

Jason Kidd says that Jaylen is our best player.

Maybe that will wake the other J up.






Bob


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dboss wrote:G2  look for JT to put the ball in the hole more.  I see a 30 point game coming from him.

You cannot keep a great scorer down for too long.  Plus the Mavs strategy to bring 2 and 3 extra defenders to check him was a disaster.  The Celtics are wired to seek out the open man and that is what JT did.  After the game he stated that he needs to stop turning the ball over.  

The Celtics defense worked to perfection.  They took away the corner 3, they took away the lobs and they contained both Irving and Luka.  

You expect that Irving and Doncic will play more aggressively on offense.  But they cannot do it by themselves.  Therefore as long as Boston keeps the supporting cast off the stage this play will get rave reviews.

I heard that Jason Kidd said that he hopes his team makes more 2 pointers than us.  Good luck with that philosophy.    

We know exactly what the Celtics want to do.  They want to take and make more 3 pointers than their opponents.  

The Celtics can and will play 5 out on offense and with the return of KP they can provide a steady diet even when a center goes to the bench.  

You should anticipate that the Mavs supporting cast will come out with a higher level of physicality.  The Celtics will need to meet and exceed that physicality and establish exceptional spacing and a superior pace to their offense.

The Celtics are the better defensive team because they have multi-positional defenders and they know how to execute the game plan.  

On offense the Mavs cannot outscore us because our shot profile is designed to score a lot of points.  I look for them to overplay passing lanes and do a lot more bumps and handsy defense to disrupt our flow.  

I believe bringing KP off the bench makes sense for Game 2.  Whatever is going on, the Mavs will be forced to make a major adjustment 5 minutes into the game.

The Mavs have been bringing Lively up top to defend JT.  JT just needs to get into his bag quicker by attacking immediately and making sure that he hits the defenders first on those drives.  The best way to attack length is a full frontal assault.

Sam Hauser finally made a few shots and he played very solid defense.  P Squared went scoreless (0-7) but I will bet that he will knock down some shots in G2.  The Mavs really do not have anyone who can stay in front of him.

I expect the Celtics to win G2.

Dboss

+1 totally agree with your analysis

And they say the Kidd vs. Mazzulla battle is all Kidd?  This may explain a lot of things.  JT is still the leader of this team.  JB is the enforcer.  And a right scary one lately in the form of say a Clint Eastwood in any of his Dirty Harry movies or James Bond.  No time to analyze things and go through the court system for search warrants, etc.  Just Do It.  That's what JB is doing.  He's saying I'm going over here/I'm going this way.  You guys react or get open.  You're open and I'll get you the ball.  But I'm driving and so is JT.  We're not losing this thing this time.  Not even going to lose a game.  But this is how we're doing it.    

The first 2 minutes will tell us everything about Kidd's gameplan for G2.  JK is in for a really bad, unfortunately disturbing game of whack-a-mole.  Here's the 3 things that need to happen tonight.

1.  Continuation of JB being The Enforcer.  JB is now playing on a whole different level.  Clearly a man on a mission ala Larry Bird.  To me, more so on that level than I've ever seen him perform in his career.  If DAL does decide to go after him and "defend" him better and keep the ball out of his hands in G2 (I'm sorry, folks.  I just have to laugh every time I see the written word or hear DAL and defense in the same sentence.), then JT is Plan B.  Andhe'll score 40.  He's going to distribute the ball better via assists and rebounds but he's going to shoot as well.  Oh, and don't forget about a lurking KP or DW or Al or if needed JH.  Plans C, D, E & F.  Yeah, JK, please make this adjustment tonight.  The championship goes through JB and JT and neither of them will be coming up short.  JT is 3-0 after his promise about home games.  Wrap it up tonight.     

2.  The Mavs and the media need to begin to see that this series is a bad matchup for DAL.  A similar G1 performance from us tonight will allow that to seep in and become front and center discussion for DAL team on the way back home for G3 & G4.  This time, when the lead gets to 29, it keeps going.  

3.  Joe Mazzulla is the smartest man in the room.  He has a very unique, spot-on relationship with his players and how they execute what Joe says on the the floor.  There is flexibility with who has the reins and when.  He trusts them.  They trust Joe.   Look out.  

Not losing anymore G2.  Solved that mystery with IND and blew their home streak out of the water.  DAL road streak came to an abrupt end in G1.  Expect more of the same.   

db

If you're Dallas you simply have to get up on the perimeter to defend the Celtics 3 point shooters.  Since they cannot defend the entire perimeter they will have to concede open 3 pointers to someone on the team.

When they push up against our guys to defend the 3 point line we will take them off the bounce and put them in rotation.    Kidd knows that his team cannot win the 3 point battle so I am assuming he wants to defend in a way that reduces the volume of 3 point shots in hopes that his team can outshoot us on 2 pointers.

The biggest issue that they face is that their starting backcourt does not and cannot defend at an elite level.  You may get a possession or 2 but Fat boy Luka and KI would not know great defense even if it bit them on the A$$.  

They are going to have to play more zone defense but the Celtics have beaten zone defense in the 3 previous rounds.

In sum we will see the Kitchen sink defense.

I am not mentioning much about their offense because at the end of the day if they cannot stop us they cannot possibly beat us.

The strength of the Dallas offense begins with the scoring prowess of Luka and Kyrie.  But if they averaged 60 points every game together it would not be enough.  They rely on their complimentary players to score.  Because Boston has so many one on one defenders the Mavs were not able to get their complimentary players enough scoring opportunities.  The Celtics did not have to put 2 guys on the Luka or Kyrie.  That is the major difference.

Luka downgraded to questionable for tonight's game (ankle, knee and now a thoracic contusion)

If he does play the Celtics should beat him up and wear him down at both ends of the court.

I saw the zone one time in G1 and Tatum hit a 3.  DAL quit after that.  It wasn't even zone buster KP that scored it.  

Very interested in the first 3-4 minutes and what DAL has as Plan B.  Barring a Kevin McHale clothesline, I'm expecting more of the same and worse for head case Kryrie. 

I'm telling all, we're not losing another game.   

db

dboss wrote:Luka downgraded to questionable for tonight's game (ankle, knee and now a thoracic contusion)

If he does play the Celtics should beat him up and wear him down at both ends of the court.

I just saw that. That is so unexpected, and scary.


https://africa.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/40313656/luka-doncic-downgraded-questionable-game-2-nba-finals

He'll be playing.  Don't worry.  But if you wanted a knockout blow...Boston, PLEASE don't fall for this.  We've seen this before. 

Come after him just like Not So Lively did against KP in G1 and force him out due to exhaustion.   

db

In 3 game 2 wins PJ Washington scores18, 29 and 10 points.

Contusion is a fancy word for bruise.  BFD at this stage.  He'll be there.  If LD no shows, Kryrie will look like KD/BKN in all four of those games in 2022 vs. BOS.  Implosion.  It's coming.  

Only problem with a no show is the unknown.  JK trying to play mind games?!  Those games never go like you would obviously think they should.  BOS needs to put all the critics to rest and ramp up the 3 and D to the loudest possible volume tonight.  And you can earn the 3's the easy way, the harder way at the line via And 1's or both.  Not So Lively will give you 6 fouls by halftime if the deep 3's ain't fallin'.      

db

P.S.  Further, if LD out, be prepared for the Mormon/Media Tabernacle Choir to be warming up with their newest hit, "Oh My God, The Celtics Have Literally Had It Handed To Them With All The Injuries And No Shows Each Round"

Lmao