POST GAME NETS

the Celtics chances this year are not against all odds at all.

who would like to say what "recent history" is or means? perhaps (and apparently) something different to each of us. is recent history the last few games, or the last few years? after all, the Celtics winning tradition goes back decades, and looking at the last 5 games to develop ideas about where they will be a month from now seems, to me, to be glaringly short-sighted.

so many wins over the years that seemed against all odds at the time, the Celtics have proven (to me) over and over again that they have earned belief in the continuity of their rich winning tradition in today's terms - that it is still true in the now.

maybe that's my own leap of faith. but it's based on watching this team for a pretty long time - decades. i am not going to go sour over a couple/three regretable losses in the immediate past. i guess keeping the faith comes easier from simply taking a longer view ...

Michael

Now I'm going outside to have an ice cold beer in the shade
Oh, I'm going to listen to my 45's
Ain't it wonderful to be alive
When the rock 'n' roll plays, yeah
When the memory stays, yeah
I'm keeping the faith
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, keeping the faith !

the memories do stay, memories of the previous experiences of winning it all over the years and those so-close near misses of the past couple of years, and i am keeping the faith. Billy Joel had a point ! and why not? i still think they can win it all, this year, and i'm not afraid to be wrong. Fear of being wrong won't stop me from enjoying the fun and joy and thrill of it all. Ain't it wonderful to be alive? And ain't it grand to have a team to get behind !

Michael

You look at them and ask, "Why?" I look at them and ask, "Why not?"

Keep in mind (and I am sure you do) that its not only the Celtics who are going to be focused in the playoffs towards winning a championship, and its not only the Celtics who have great players and good management. When I look at the Bulls and, unfortunately, the Lakers, I see two teams peaking at the right time who have great players and management to back them up who are perfectly capable of winning a ring too. I look at those teams and I ask "Why not" because they seem more capable right now of accomplishing their goal than our team. That could change, and if it does, my assessment of our chances will have to change with the new reality, should it occur.
As for becoming a rock star......negative, Sam. In fact, the Red Sox are about to start their season, and I will probably be on their board more than here soon.

Pumpsie Green wrote:I think that recent performance is a better (though not absolute) predictor of future performance.

This completely ignores the fact that Shaq / JON or BOTh will be back soon.

Pumpsie Green wrote:Many years ago the Dow Jones Average was a bit north of 14,000; now it is hovering around a bit over 11,500 or so. If I had to bet where it would be in a month, I would choose the more recent performance over the performance of 2008.

That is a bunk comparison. The world economy is in the middle of a recession / turmoil all over the middle east / natural disasters in the far east - nothing even close to the climate that existed in 2008. Comparing apples and oranges.

Pumpsie Green wrote:Finally, if the game is on the line and Albert Pujols is up hitting, I am thinking that there is a decent chance of success given his performance in the past few years. If the hitter is Jason Varitek, who at one time in his career was a good hitter, but who is now way past his prime, I expect much less of a chance of success. RECENT performance counts much more than ancient performance.

Again, another bunk analogy. The only way this analogy works is if you consider the Celtics this year are like Jason Varitek IN that one great season, during a small mid season slump. They are not a year removed from greatness - they STARTED this very season leading the NBA for months on end, and until a few days ago were STILL the #1 seed in the east.

If you want to talk about predictors of how things will turn out - you need look no further than December when they were on a 13 game win streak and tearing up the league. That was with Shaq and without Perk. Since then, they have upgraded their roster - and will be getting Shaq back soon.

Lets all save this thread - along with a big plate of humble pie - so we can enjoy them both with you in June when they hoist up #18

Those analogies ARE relevant. I could go on with more, but your mind is made up, so I am not going to bother. You are dead set in your belief that one cannot predict at all future performance based on immediate past performance. You prefer, it seems, to guess and hope. Thats fine with me. I hope you are right. I hope the teams does go deep into the playoffs this year.
Just a couple of questions:
1. What data would YOU use to predict future sports team performance and
2. How do you KNOW that Shaq and JON will be back soon or how much they will contribute IF they come back?

Pumpsie Green wrote:
Finally, if the game is on the line and Albert Pujols is up hitting, I am thinking that there is a decent chance of success given his performance in the past few years. If the hitter is Jason Varitek, who at one time in his career was a good hitter, but who is now way past his prime, I expect much less of a chance of success. RECENT performance counts much more than ancient performance.

Totally (pardon the pun) of base analogy unless the bases are loaded and the score tied.

Plus we all know even the best hitters fail nearly 70% of the time on average...............plus just how many times as Albert Pujols succeded in driving in runs with 2 out late in a game with runners in scoring position, when their at bat represents the tying or go ahead run this represents about as much pressure as there is for a great hitter.

Might want to check out Alberts stats.

Then check of Variteck.

I'll save you the work As I can only locate the stats for the 2009 season
Albert came to bat in these late game situations with 8 runners in scoring position..........and batted in ONE

Variteck with many less at bats came to the plate with a total of 6 runners in scoring position..........and also drove home ONE

In effect % wisw Variteck was better in the clutch late in games.

Bottom line is on the surface you cedrtainly would have though Albert would be better as he hits well over 300 but in the clutch is another situation altogether.

Most of these C's have been to the playoffs. We'll be fine.

beat

Pumpsie Green wrote:Those analogies ARE relevant. I could go on with more, but your mind is made up, so I am not going to bother. You are dead set in your belief that one cannot predict at all future performance based on immediate past performance. You prefer, it seems, to guess and hope. Thats fine with me. I hope you are right. I hope the teams does go deep into the playoffs this year.
Just a couple of questions:
1. What data would YOU use to predict future sports team performance and
2. How do you KNOW that Shaq and JON will be back soon or how much they will contribute IF they come back?

Maybe that's where prayer comes in.

I've tried it and I can't say absolutely for sure that it hasn't worked.

GC

gacracker wrote:

Pumpsie Green wrote:Those analogies ARE relevant. I could go on with more, but your mind is made up, so I am not going to bother. You are dead set in your belief that one cannot predict at all future performance based on immediate past performance. You prefer, it seems, to guess and hope. Thats fine with me. I hope you are right. I hope the teams does go deep into the playoffs this year.
Just a couple of questions:
1. What data would YOU use to predict future sports team performance and
2. How do you KNOW that Shaq and JON will be back soon or how much they will contribute IF they come back?

Maybe that's where prayer comes in.

I've tried it and I can't say absolutely for sure that it hasn't worked.

GC

HAHAHA
Has prayer worked in the recent past? If so, perhaps there is a decent chance that it will work now.
Pray twice as long....for both of us...since its not in my personal arsenal.

Pumpsie,

Yes, I'm actually aware of the fact that there will be teams other than the Celtics in the playoffs and that all of them will be trying hard to win. Just as has been the case in all the historical antecedents (including those during the Garnett era) which have earned the leap of faith of which I speak.

Perhaps, as you seem to be saying, other teams are peaking now. Given the current state of the Celtics, if the Celts do wind up being elite contenders, it will only be because they have established great momentum. I'll take momentum any day over teams that peaked early. This is getting to be fun. You're a great straight man, feeding me my lines. How about forming a comedy team instead of a rock duo? We have the right respective builds for an Abbott & Costello-type act.

Asking what data someone would use to predict the Celtics' future assumes that such predictions are warranted. That's just my point. Such predictions are not warranted, given the state of evolution in which this team is immersed. That's the reason why the choice at this juncture is between a leap of faith/hope and dourness.

I'll take the high road, and you take the low road, and we'll see what happens.

Wow, the thread is up to 907 "views" right now. Think we can crack the thousand barrier?

Sam

Beat, you understand the point, even if I misnamed the players involved. It would have been better to keep it impersonal: Player A is an all star this year and is on a hot streak batting .500 over his last 30 at bats; Player B was an all star 2 years ago, but has aged and has been playing poorly of late, going just 2 for 30 in his most recent plate appearances. Who would you rather have up with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th inning down by one run with two out?
The Bulls have won 8 straight, and the Lakers are also hot. The Celtics were great in the playoffs last year, but lately they have not been playing well, losing games to the Clippers at home, the Sixers, and the Nets. They are struggling, obviously. All three teams are talented and have good management; all are focused on winning a ring.
While I am a Celtics fan and always will be, looking at the situation objectively I understand that we are underdogs right now for a championship ring. If we do not finish first in the east, the road is even tougher. While I would never bet against a team I am rooting for, my guess is that those in Las Vegas do not have the Celtics as favorites to be NBA champions this year, and I agree with that assessment.

sam wrote:Pumpsie,

Yes, I'm actually aware of the fact that there will be teams other than the Celtics in the playoffs and that all of them will be trying hard to win. Just as has been the case in all the historical antecedents (including those during the Garnett era) which have earned the leap of faith of which I speak.

Asking what data someone would use to predict the Celtics' future assumes that such predictions are warranted. That's just my point. Such predictions are not warranted, given the state of evolution in which this team is immersed. That's the reason why the choice at this juncture is between a leap of faith/hope and dourness.

I'll take the high road, and you take the low road, and we'll see what happens.
Sam

I think thats what we will do. I am not prone to "leaps of faith" very often.

Pumpsie bottom line is you choose to wallow in doubt I choose to look forward with a realistic hope.

Geesh we know there are other teams that want to win thats what makes this special, there are no guarantees for ANYONE them included.

So have it your way for you, I'll stay with a causiously positive outlook.

beat

And to add, are we the best team right now? Regardless of the answer we don't need to be. Playoffs are 3+ weeks off and the champion won't be crowned till June.

Pumpsie Green wrote:Just a couple of questions:
1. What data would YOU use to predict future sports team performance and
2. How do you KNOW that Shaq and JON will be back soon or how much they will contribute IF they come back?

1 - when a team was performing well with a FULL COMPLIMENT of players....and they currently do not have the same FULL COMPLIMENT, you are talking apples (Nov and Dec Celtics) to Oranges (current Celtics) Your entire assumption that their current performance is the predictor of their future performance ignores the fact that they have two legit centers returning soon.

2 - So I am basing my comments on the belief that Doc and DA are being honest with us when they say Shaq would be ready to go if the playoffs started tomorrow. You are basing your argument on the idea that they are lying to us.

Your negative nelly act is wearing thin out here.

Pumpsie Green wrote:

gacracker wrote:

Pumpsie Green wrote:Those analogies ARE relevant. I could go on with more, but your mind is made up, so I am not going to bother. You are dead set in your belief that one cannot predict at all future performance based on immediate past performance. You prefer, it seems, to guess and hope. Thats fine with me. I hope you are right. I hope the teams does go deep into the playoffs this year.
Just a couple of questions:
1. What data would YOU use to predict future sports team performance and
2. How do you KNOW that Shaq and JON will be back soon or how much they will contribute IF they come back?

Maybe that's where prayer comes in.

I've tried it and I can't say absolutely for sure that it hasn't worked.

GC

HAHAHA
Has prayer worked in the recent past? If so, perhaps there is a decent chance that it will work now.
Pray twice as long....for both of us...since its not in my personal arsenal.

PumpsieG:

I was raised a strict Catholic so prayer is always in my personal arsenal.

Remember the Cuban Missile Crisis? I had it covered. Relentless child-like prayer paid off!

Actually Cousy and Heinsohn, two good Catholic boys (I think) were parts of my initial attraction to the C's.

What are the major issues in your mind that have bedeviled the C's, such that they have been playing below their potential, this year and perhaps last year during the 2nd half/halves of the season(s)?

Anything in particular I need to be focused on, praying for/against in your mind?

GC

P.S. What is your avatar? I can't quite make it out.

[quote="mrkleen09"]

Pumpsie Green wrote:
Your negative nelly act is wearing thin out here.

Conviviality!!!!! Mr. Kleen!

GC

GC

Mr Kleen is a different dude around here. He gave me some clutch advice when I was deeply pissed off and in my junk around some Laker dude. Just silly. But man did he say the right words to me. It just ended it in my mind.

Ever so often he gets pissed off when people are negative but I got to watch his six on this one.

Jeb

(great to have you back around buddy)

Hey GA....just ignore mrkleen. He will either get used to "my act" or his posts will degrade into a personal level that will get him banned. I don't plan to change my attitude here. Some think its "wallowing"; I call it being realistic. You go to Las Vegas and see who is more accurate in terms of assessing the chances for a ring for this team. Those guys in Vegas don't just make the Lakers favorites for fun (they are current favorites to win it all; the Celtics and Heat are tied for second).
As for the reasons for believing what I think it true, I laid it out on page one of this thread. Its not that I "don't like" the Celtics; nothing could be further from the truth. In a nutshell, I think that these are the reasons I won't take that leap of faith: inconsistent overall defense, lack of interior defense (there is NO guarantee Shaq will be back and play well enough to contribute or remain injury free, and JON hasn't contributed all year), the injuries have taken their toll on those who remain, and my opinion that Rondo is not really an elite PG because he has no outside shot and cannot make FTs.
If you have prayers for those ills, this would be good time to use them, though somehow I think God has more important things to do nowadays than produce miracles so the Celtics can win another ring.

Oh, by the way-the avatar is a nudibranch, a poisonous underwater slug. It doesn't really reproduce real well here but if you like I can send you the real picture via email (pm me your email address if you want to see it with better resolution).

HOLY SHIT!!!!

So many analogies and too many words, lets cut to the chase fellas.

No Shaq and JON no rings and no title.

Pumpsie Green wrote:Hey GA....just ignore mrkleen. He will either get used to "my act" or his posts will degrade into a personal level that will get him banned. I don't plan to change my attitude here. Some think its "wallowing"; I call it being realistic. You go to Las Vegas and see who is more accurate in terms of assessing the chances for a ring for this team. Those guys in Vegas don't just make the Lakers favorites for fun (they are current favorites to win it all; the Celtics and Heat are tied for second).
As for the reasons for believing what I think it true, I laid it out on page one of this thread. Its not that I "don't like" the Celtics; nothing could be further from the truth. In a nutshell, I think that these are the reasons I won't take that leap of faith: inconsistent overall defense, lack of interior defense (there is NO guarantee Shaq will be back and play well enough to contribute or remain injury free, and JON hasn't contributed all year), the injuries have taken their toll on those who remain, and my opinion that Rondo is not really an elite PG because he has no outside shot and cannot make FTs.
If you have prayers for those ills, this would be good time to use them, though somehow I think God has more important things to do nowadays than produce miracles so the Celtics can win another ring.

'
I gave up praying for Rondo's FTs and midrange game sometime back. I prayed to the Saint for Lost Causes, St Jude, as a last resort but you can see how much good that did.

I can say that I was able to secure the services of CArroyo and the return of DWest using some divine connections that I cultivated from childhood (that I can't say more about at this time due to a confidentiality clause) and with them my sense is that we can at least be competitive at the PG position.... Rondo or no Rondo.

Dunno what to say about Shaq/JON. I'm not optimistic at all.

Dunno what to say about interior defense issues. You may need to draw me pictures so I know what to pray for.

That avatar slug must be one stingin' mofo! Fresh or salt water?

I was diving on my boat today on the Ga coast scraping barnacles/grass... and hope I didn't see one!! Mercy.

gc

GA, that slug was living in the Philippines when I snapped his picture. Not likely to find one under your boat in Georgia. They don't sting; if you eat them they will kill ya though

Pumpsie Green wrote:GA, that slug was living in the Philippines when I snapped his picture. Not likely to find one under your boat in Georgia. They don't sting; if you eat them they will kill ya though

Slug is something I'm more likely to be called than something I'd order at the seafood restaurant.

Oysters, shrimp and brown crabs are more to my taste.

GC