Trade Rumor: Grizzlies Interested In Green

Why Memphis did what it did.

The issue here, as it has always been with Jeff Green wherever he heads, is whether or not Green is fit for the Memphis Grizzlies at this point in his career. He’s always looked like a great basketball player, even with the production doesn’t back that up, and over the last two seasons on two very poor Boston Celtics teams he’s produced scoring stats (16.9 and 17.6 points per game) that would seem to rank him as someone nearing a great basketball player.

The problem is that Green remains a terrible rebounder even for the small forward position, and the Grizzlies will end up playing him for some minutes as a stretch four power forward – big man Zach Randolph is set to return soon, but the Grizz will need his minutes down there. Nearly a third of Green’s shots this season have come from behind three-point range, and he yet he’s shot just 30 percent from behind the arc this season and far below average from long range in his career.

Memphis Grizzlies front office executive John Hollinger’s own (very useful) stat Player Efficiency Rating has even rated Green as a below-average player this year, the season prior, and throughout his career. Part of the inspiration for creating PER, in the books Hollinger wrote over a decade ago, was to try to dissuade teams from going after fantastic athletes that merely looked like great basketball players, when other more productive players were available to acquire.

The Celtics played considerably better with Green off the floor this season, on both ends of the ball, and Jeff might be squeezed out of his best scoring spots. The Celtics have been the second-fastest team in the NBA this season according to pace, and the Grizzlies (rightfully) remain the fourth-slowest. Green is going to have to pick his spots and try to fit in ways that might not suit his game. Some have already argued that Green will be better in Memphis because he won’t have the pressure of acting as a go-to guy, but they forget that he wasn’t even all that good while working as a role player with other outfits. He might just take up space and mop up minutes in ways that don’t really help.

That’s the worst of it, though. The best of it comes in the form of this deal. All the Grizzlies gave up was Tayshaun Prince, working on his last legs and rarely taking advantage of that 41 percent stroke from behind the arc. They’ll give up a first-round pick that Boston won’t take in until 2018 or 2019, and they’ll have to wonder whether or not Green will opt out of the $9.2 million he’s owed next season in order to become a free agent this summer.

If that happens, and if that pick turns into something special (with Zach Randolph possibly gone and Marc Gasol and Mike Conley having grown much older), so what? The point is to win right now, in a league that is just oozing with parity, and in what we can safely conclude is the Greatest Conference Ever.

Jeff Green is not the ideal player for what still ails the Grizzlies, but that ideal acquired player isn’t really available right now. Even if the Grizzlies were able to pry the brilliant Luol Deng from Miami for the same package, they would still be taking in a who is shooting below the league-average marks from long range this year, one with a career three-point percentage is actually worse than Green’s. This could click, anything would be better than Prince at this point, and the Grizzlies have to act now – especially for that current price.

Green might not work out. He could turn into one of those players you see as the cable TV cameras scan the sideline of the playoff losers’ bench at the end of a series-deciding game, a guy in warm-ups that forces you to flash back on why, exactly, we were making so much of a fuss on him back when so much snow was on the ground.

When you’re a championship contender, though, you take chances. Even when you know those chances could come back to bite a very different version of your franchise a few years from now.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/boston-deals-brandan-wright-and--eventually--jeff-green-away-for-more-picks-013754283.html

sam wrote:TJ,

I'm also blessed with an inordinate amount of patience.  Despite the actuarial fact that my every breath could be my last, I signed a contract with God to the effect that I won't croak until the Celtics have won at least three more titles.  (In return, I sent God two picks from among my acquaintances.)

Sam

Almost choked with laughter at that one.

If I could work out a similar contract with God, substituting my beloved Cleveland Browns for the Celtics, I might well have found the secret of eternal life.

Being a Browns fan: now that calls for patience - talk about the long haul!

Berlin-T

steve3344 wrote:Why Memphis did what it did.

The issue here, as it has always been with Jeff Green wherever he heads, is whether or not Green is fit for the Memphis Grizzlies at this point in his career. He’s always looked like a great basketball player, even with the production doesn’t back that up, and over the last two seasons on two very poor Boston Celtics teams he’s produced scoring stats (16.9 and 17.6 points per game) that would seem to rank him as someone nearing a great basketball player.

The problem is that Green remains a terrible rebounder even for the small forward position, and the Grizzlies will end up playing him for some minutes as a stretch four power forward – big man Zach Randolph is set to return soon, but the Grizz will need his minutes down there. Nearly a third of Green’s shots this season have come from behind three-point range, and he yet he’s shot just 30 percent from behind the arc this season and far below average from long range in his career.

Memphis Grizzlies front office executive John Hollinger’s own (very useful) stat Player Efficiency Rating has even rated Green as a below-average player this year, the season prior, and throughout his career. Part of the inspiration for creating PER, in the books Hollinger wrote over a decade ago, was to try to dissuade teams from going after fantastic athletes that merely looked like great basketball players, when other more productive players were available to acquire.

The Celtics played considerably better with Green off the floor this season, on both ends of the ball, and Jeff might be squeezed out of his best scoring spots. The Celtics have been the second-fastest team in the NBA this season according to pace, and the Grizzlies (rightfully) remain the fourth-slowest. Green is going to have to pick his spots and try to fit in ways that might not suit his game. Some have already argued that Green will be better in Memphis because he won’t have the pressure of acting as a go-to guy, but they forget that he wasn’t even all that good while working as a role player with other outfits. He might just take up space and mop up minutes in ways that don’t really help.

That’s the worst of it, though. The best of it comes in the form of this deal. All the Grizzlies gave up was Tayshaun Prince, working on his last legs and rarely taking advantage of that 41 percent stroke from behind the arc. They’ll give up a first-round pick that Boston won’t take in until 2018 or 2019, and they’ll have to wonder whether or not Green will opt out of the $9.2 million he’s owed next season in order to become a free agent this summer.

If that happens, and if that pick turns into something special (with Zach Randolph possibly gone and Marc Gasol and Mike Conley having grown much older), so what? The point is to win right now, in a league that is just oozing with parity, and in what we can safely conclude is the Greatest Conference Ever.

Jeff Green is not the ideal player for what still ails the Grizzlies, but that ideal acquired player isn’t really available right now. Even if the Grizzlies were able to pry the brilliant Luol Deng from Miami for the same package, they would still be taking in a who is shooting below the league-average marks from long range this year, one with a career three-point percentage is actually worse than Green’s. This could click, anything would be better than Prince at this point, and the Grizzlies have to act now – especially for that current price.

Green might not work out. He could turn into one of those players you see as the cable TV cameras scan the sideline of the playoff losers’ bench at the end of a series-deciding game, a guy in warm-ups that forces you to flash back on why, exactly, we were making so much of a fuss on him back when so much snow was on the ground.

When you’re a championship contender, though, you take chances. Even when you know those chances could come back to bite a very different version of your franchise a few years from now.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/boston-deals-brandan-wright-and--eventually--jeff-green-away-for-more-picks-013754283.html

how can someone avg 16 or 17 ppg be considered near great? unless hes a great defensive player and rebounder which we know Green isn't, hes a really athletic 3rd scoring option who has a tendency to disappear.

Sam .
Red did not trade Hondo,Jo Jo White,or Don Chaney when Russell and Sam Jones retired.He waited one year with Henry Finkel at the center position and the result was Dave Cowens.You can bet that with Len Bias the end of the carrers of Bird and McHale would be different.The value of Garnett and Pierce means more to the Celtics team than points and rebounds,they were the motor of the deffense and were the leaders.

cowens/oldschool wrote:

steve3344 wrote:Why Memphis did what it did.

The issue here, as it has always been with Jeff Green wherever he heads, is whether or not Green is fit for the Memphis Grizzlies at this point in his career. He’s always looked like a great basketball player, even with the production doesn’t back that up, and over the last two seasons on two very poor Boston Celtics teams he’s produced scoring stats (16.9 and 17.6 points per game) that would seem to rank him as someone nearing a great basketball player.

The problem is that Green remains a terrible rebounder even for the small forward position, and the Grizzlies will end up playing him for some minutes as a stretch four power forward – big man Zach Randolph is set to return soon, but the Grizz will need his minutes down there. Nearly a third of Green’s shots this season have come from behind three-point range, and he yet he’s shot just 30 percent from behind the arc this season and far below average from long range in his career.

Memphis Grizzlies front office executive John Hollinger’s own (very useful) stat Player Efficiency Rating has even rated Green as a below-average player this year, the season prior, and throughout his career. Part of the inspiration for creating PER, in the books Hollinger wrote over a decade ago, was to try to dissuade teams from going after fantastic athletes that merely looked like great basketball players, when other more productive players were available to acquire.

The Celtics played considerably better with Green off the floor this season, on both ends of the ball, and Jeff might be squeezed out of his best scoring spots. The Celtics have been the second-fastest team in the NBA this season according to pace, and the Grizzlies (rightfully) remain the fourth-slowest. Green is going to have to pick his spots and try to fit in ways that might not suit his game. Some have already argued that Green will be better in Memphis because he won’t have the pressure of acting as a go-to guy, but they forget that he wasn’t even all that good while working as a role player with other outfits. He might just take up space and mop up minutes in ways that don’t really help.

That’s the worst of it, though. The best of it comes in the form of this deal. All the Grizzlies gave up was Tayshaun Prince, working on his last legs and rarely taking advantage of that 41 percent stroke from behind the arc. They’ll give up a first-round pick that Boston won’t take in until 2018 or 2019, and they’ll have to wonder whether or not Green will opt out of the $9.2 million he’s owed next season in order to become a free agent this summer.

If that happens, and if that pick turns into something special (with Zach Randolph possibly gone and Marc Gasol and Mike Conley having grown much older), so what? The point is to win right now, in a league that is just oozing with parity, and in what we can safely conclude is the Greatest Conference Ever.

Jeff Green is not the ideal player for what still ails the Grizzlies, but that ideal acquired player isn’t really available right now. Even if the Grizzlies were able to pry the brilliant Luol Deng from Miami for the same package, they would still be taking in a who is shooting below the league-average marks from long range this year, one with a career three-point percentage is actually worse than Green’s. This could click, anything would be better than Prince at this point, and the Grizzlies have to act now – especially for that current price.

Green might not work out. He could turn into one of those players you see as the cable TV cameras scan the sideline of the playoff losers’ bench at the end of a series-deciding game, a guy in warm-ups that forces you to flash back on why, exactly, we were making so much of a fuss on him back when so much snow was on the ground.

When you’re a championship contender, though, you take chances. Even when you know those chances could come back to bite a very different version of your franchise a few years from now.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/boston-deals-brandan-wright-and--eventually--jeff-green-away-for-more-picks-013754283.html

Cow - the article didn't say Green was "considered near great," with his 17.6 ppg, it says



how can someone avg 16 or 17 ppg be considered near great? unless hes a great defensive player and rebounder which we know Green isn't, hes a really athletic 3rd scoring option who has a tendency to disappear.

Cow - the article didn't say Green with his 17.6 ppg was "considered near great," it says it
"would SEEM to rank him as someone nearing a great basketball player," which he isn't.  I just crunched Jeff's numbers this year and last year, plus his overall career to date using the system I came up with around 30 years ago to involve every long-time category they've been keeping stats on and this year he's barely better than last year 20.21 vs 18.21 (when a 24 is considered average for a player) and for his career he's a very poor 18.97.  His PER this year is 14.4, last year it was 13.1 and his career PER is 13.2 which is awful.  Even though he is the leading scorer on the Celtics this year, he's only ranked EIGHTH BEST on the team in PER:

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/teams/Boston-Celtics/2/stats/2015/Advanced_Stats/Qualified/per/All/desc/1/Regular_Season

Boy, what a drop for Avery Bradley in PER, down to 10.6 (from a still poor 12.7 last year) and just TWELFTH on the team.  He seems to be regressing.  His contract isn't starting to look so great unless he ups his game.

Steve...i hope danny is using you system to evaluate talent. Makes sense to trade Jeff given your analysis.

"Red did not trade Hondo,Jo Jo White,or Don Chaney when Russell and Sam Jones retired"

Hondo was a great player in his prime.  JoJo never played with Russell or Sam Jones but was drafted after they retired.  Don Chaney was a rookie during Russell's last year and the jury was still very much out on whether he had a future in the NBA given his rudimentary offensive skills.

KG, as his play in NJ demonstrates, cannot carry a team or even play decent minutes on a nightly basis.  His contract would also have been a millstone around the neck of the Celtics really limiting their ability to entice free agents--something that didn't exist in the late 60's early 70's.

Ditto with Pierce's contract.  While he can still play he is past his prime and is far better suited for selective use in key moments of big games than as a day in day out star.

The only player who was somewhat analogous to Hondo was Rondo, who appparently didn't want to stay and may well have walked away for nothing--an avenue that was unavailable to Hondo even if he wanted to take it.

If DA held on to Pierce and KG the team may have been able to squeeze out a couple of seasons of mediocrity with an early playoff exit as their ceiling and then endure an even more difficult rebuild since they would have fewer assets at their disposal.

Some knucklehead wrote:Why Memphis did what it did.

The issue here, as it has always been with Jeff Green wherever he heads...

This article goes out of its way to paint Green in the worst light possible.

It raises the bar high for him, like with the comment that he "looked like a great basketball player," even though that's not what he is and not what I or anyone else supporting Green has claimed. He's a good player, and he's not a failure because he's not a great player.

The author says Green is a below-average player, yet Luol Deng is "brilliant"? The line between below average and brilliant is narrower than I thought. One of the reasons the author thinks Green will be a poor addition to the Grizzlies is because he is such a terrible rebounder, yet the brilliant Deng is averaging 4.8 rebounds per game and the terrible Green is averaging 4.2.

PER is not the be-all, end-all of stats. If so, why does Nicholas Batum, who is considered a key to the success of the 28-8 Trailblazers, have a lower PER than Josh Smith, the roving team-killer? If PER is such a reliable way to evaluate players and Jeff Green has such a poor PER, why is Memphis, with VP of Basketball Operations John Hollinger, trying to get Green?

The article goes out of its way to paint Green as a bad fit for Memphis, but I disagree with that assessment. Even if you consider him a poor rebounder, so is Tayshaun Prince, the player he would replace, and they have Z-Bo and Gasol to do the heavy lifting on the boards. He'll be a replacement for Prince at small forward, not a backup for Randolph at power forward. He'll bring much needed offensive punch (17.6 per game, 19.1 per 36 minutes) compared to Prince (7.3 per game, 10.9 per 36 minutes). Perhaps best of all, Green will have a chance to thrive and increase his efficiency being the fourth option in Memphis compared to the first option in Boston. The only reason Green isn't a better fit is that he's not a great three-point shooter, which is something the Grizzlies need, but he helps them with scoring, making a good offense better.

I prefer to have a more balanced view of what Green actually is as a player and look at how he can help Memphis. The writer of this article does neither.

worcester wrote:Steve...i hope danny is using you system to evaluate talent. Makes sense to trade Jeff given your analysis.

Danny's using much more sophisticated systems than mine (or PER) to evaluate talent. But he made the right decision trading Green. He's never been a productive all-around player and has serious deficiencies in his game. He's just a shooter/scorer and usually not a very good one. With his athleticism (probably the best pure athlete the Celtics have ever had in the frontcourt except for probably Bill Russell) he should be SO much more.

International, there are different ways to approach a rebuild. Red had his, and Danny has his. Red combined great draft picks and great trades because both approaches were easier to accomplish back then. (Fewer teams drafting and fewer limitations from the cap and the Collective Bargaining Agreement. ) Danny seems to be following closer to the formula that brought the Celtics their most recent championship, perhaps substituting draft picks for warm bodies in the trade department. Time will tell whether lightening can strike twice with that approach.

Sam

Steve,

The Celtics didn't trade Jeff because of any perceived "flaws," he was traded because Ainge is opting to shed contracts, which means shedding veteran players. Danny wants drafts picks, it's clear. But whether he'll make good use of said picks is another story altogether.

I think Jeff Green will help Memphis because he is clearly an upgrade over Prince. He's a pretty decent defender and he can score. He was actually having one of his better years this season up until the Rondo trade. Boston is actually the team losing out in this whole transaction.


KJ

steve3344 wrote:  I just crunched Jeff's numbers this year and last year, plus his overall career to date using the system I came up with around 30 years ago

Have you gotten around to chunching Andrei Kirilenko numbers this year? I hear he is a better player than Jeff Green and still available.

mrkleen09 wrote:

steve3344 wrote:   I just crunched Jeff's numbers this year and last year, plus his overall career to date using the system I came up with around 30 years ago

Have you gotten around to chunching Andrei Kirilenko numbers this year?  I hear he is a better player than Jeff Green and still available.

Andrei Kirilenko is sitting at home filling out unemployment papers. Oh, yeah, I forgot. He can't collect . . . he refused work. (LOL)

k_j_88 wrote:Steve,

The Celtics didn't trade Jeff because of any perceived "flaws," he was traded because Ainge is opting to shed contracts, which means shedding veteran players. Danny wants drafts picks, it's clear. But whether he'll make good use of said picks is another story altogether.

I think Jeff Green will help Memphis because he is clearly an upgrade over Prince. He's a pretty decent defender and he can score. He was actually having one of his better years this season up until the Rondo trade. Boston is actually the team losing out in this whole transaction.


KJ

Jeff certainly WAS traded because of his flaws. If Danny had decided he was a core player, the kind of productive, building-block player that is a keeper (and at only 28 he was certainly young enough), he wouldn't have given him away for so little. Danny has enough draft picks. He needs players that play a well-rounded game. Jeff doesn't. After seven years in the league Danny had seen enough of Jeff and it was clear he is what he is and won't ever be much different. And his contract ain't cheap for what he was providing in only one area of the game - and with a fairly low shooting percentage at that. Danny's not stupid. Even in a rebuilding mode he would always want a young veteran player whose play proves he belongs. Jeff's play didn't show that.

steve3344 wrote:

k_j_88 wrote:Steve,

The Celtics didn't trade Jeff because of any perceived "flaws," he was traded because Ainge is opting to shed contracts, which means shedding veteran players. Danny wants drafts picks, it's clear. But whether he'll make good use of said picks is another story altogether.

I think Jeff Green will help Memphis because he is clearly an upgrade over Prince. He's a pretty decent defender and he can score. He was actually having one of his better years this season up until the Rondo trade. Boston is actually the team losing out in this whole transaction.


KJ

Jeff certainly WAS traded because of his flaws.  If Danny had decided he was a core player, the kind of productive, building-block player that is a keeper (and at only 28 he was certainly young enough), he wouldn't have given him away for so little.  Danny has enough draft picks.  He needs players that play a well-rounded game.  Jeff doesn't.  After seven years in the league Danny had seen enough of Jeff and it was clear he is what he is and won't ever be much different.  And his contract ain't cheap for what he was providing in only one area of the game - and with a fairly low shooting percentage at that.  Danny's not stupid.  Even in a rebuilding mode he would always want a young veteran player whose play proves he belongs.  Jeff's play didn't show that.

Uh huh... The way you're talking would make it seem as if the Celtics were trading for an upgrade. But I highly doubt Tayshaun Prince is a superior player to Jeff Green. That's preposterous. Jeff was having a pretty good season prior to the Rondo trade. In fact, he's had a pretty decent career in the NBA. No, he's not Kevin Durant or Lebron James, but he's no slouch and deserves more respect than what you're giving him.

You think Danny has enough drafts picks? Well, if that was truly his opinion, then wouldn't he stop trading known values for unknown prospects with no real value (now)? Instead, he continues to acquire more, which bothers me because when it comes to drafting he is average at best. What good is a plethora of draft picks in the hands of someone with mediocre scouting?

Consider this: Pierce and KG were the first dominoes to fall. Next was Rondo. From that point, it was only obvious that Jeff would be traded. This is nothing more than a salary cutting scheme on Ainge's part. Have you really looked into how this is likely to play out? The only free agent the Celtics will be able to attract is a mercenary that will be overpaid and most likely not any better than Jeff Green.

Jeff Green was on the books for $9.2M. You really think that's overpaid? I'm sure MrKleen has posted (on numerous occasions) the players that all make around the same amount that Jeff does. Compared to the other players in his pay grade, he actually stacks up rather well. I think it's meaningless to bash someone for not being a max contract player if they aren't even making max contract money, because in the end that's the biggest criticism of him, that he's not a "top" SF.


KJ

Dont waste your breath KJ.

Steve has already told us that Andrei Kirilenko is a better player than Jeff Green and that there are 7 players on the current Celtics who are better than Avery Bradley.

Any any questioning of his "system" is a direct insult to Dr Jack Ramsay, Lord John Hollinger and the Queen of England.

Relax, guys. It's only a trade.

Sam

$20M or more below the cap next year.

Green was going to opt out of his $9.2M salary next year for MORE money.


THATS why Green was traded.

Prince might even be waived/bought out like Nelson will be soon.

they are only expiring contracts to open cap space for 2015 and 2016.

Lottery pick next year.

as many as 3 more lottery picks in the three drafts that follow.( remember we have Brooklyn's picks in 2016, 2018 and can swap with them in 2017).

3-4 young lottery picks AND a MAX player along with Sully, Kelly, Bradley and Smart.

are you kidding me?

yeah send Bass and thornton away too please.

Trick the Spurs into a s&t for Leonard, draft okafor or towns, and sign Lamarcus Aldridge

we'll have the money to sign Aldridge, if he wants to come east.

the ping pong balls will determine if Ainge has a chance at one of the two big men likely to go 1-2 in this years draft.

I'd prefer M. Gasol and Stanley Johnson with our Lotto pick right now.

Add Cliff Alexander with the Clippers pick and we'll be on our way.

watch as the Nets fall into the bottom of the NBA , while we head into the playoffs, then snag those high draft picks we stole from them.

KDP,

Exactly, expiring contracts are the targets. As I stated before, a salary dumping scheme is in the works. That's why I see no reason to claim Jeff was traded because of his skill as a basketball player as opposed to financial goals.


KJ

I concur with kids and kj. Jeff Green was traded for salary cap relief next year and had nothing to do with his on or off court performances.

He's having the best season of his career, he is a good locker room presence and a good citizen.



bob


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