Checking In On The Dallas Draft Pick

Matty wrote:Bob...

It's what I love about Cow. When he takes a stand for something he stays stood.

Outside wrote:Bob,

As a player, I would be a relic of the past today -- a back-to-the-basket, limited range center who relished controlling the paint and the boards on defense. I have a natural, almost visceral affinity for a guy like Rudy Gobert, so I'm not lying when I say that I completely understand where Cowens is coming from when he continues to see Gobert as a Eiffel Tower-sized missed draft opportunity. Gobert epitomizes the type of player that I was (though I fancy myself as better offensively and a much better passer).

But the game has changed in a revolutionary way. What's surprising is how long it's taken since the introduction of the three-point line for the revolution to truly take hold. I wonder if it would've happened a decade sooner if D'Antoni's Suns had been able to get past the Spurs and win a title (and they should've won it the year Robert Horry hip-checked Steve Nash into the scorer's table). But changed it has, and I don't think there's any turning back.

Pace-and-space is the way to truly exploit what the three-point line does to the game. I still think there's a place for big men to excel within that system, but they ideally would be able to defend outside of the key, run, and be a threat offensively. The fact that we don't have great centers today enhances the perception that centers are dinosaurs, but Bill Russell would have thrived in a pace-and-space system. Even though traditional guys like Wilt, Kareem, and Shaq would have difficulty guarding anyone in a small lineup, they would be far more effective at countering small lineups than any of today's centers because they would be truly unguardable by smaller players.

But we don't have any truly great centers today. Andre Drummond and Deandre Jordan are athletic, but they are limited offensively and can be forced out because they can't make a free throw. Marc Gasol is a plodder who fits the antithesis of pace-and-space in Memphis. Andrew Bogut is successful because he only plays half the time and is an extremely skilled passer, screener, and high-IQ help defender.

Nature abhors a vacuum, and with no dominant post players, the three-point revolution has come to full fruition. It's a new day. Even when a dominant post player eventually comes along, he'll have to play differently than in the past, attacking quickly in the post or passing out to the next guy in the chain. The days of dumping an entry pass to the big guy and letting him work his man down for a short shot or dunk are over. And as far as I'm concerned, this is a more fun and team-oriented way to play the game.

I do wonder if Sam would've come around to see the beauty and grace of it. His disdain for the three-point shot was deeply ingrained, and it would take more than a couple of years of success by the Spurs and Warriors for him to consider it anything more than a passing phase. But if the Celtics are to achieve championship-level success under Brad Stevens, it's clear that it will be using pace and space, and seeing Boston win a title that way would be the surest way to convert him.

bobheckler wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:Jazz up to .500 with pummeling of Lakers, ahead of Dallas. Two guys that Ainge passed on had monster games, Gobert with 19 rebounds in like 27 minutes and Hood with 30 points in the first half....and we have girlie man KO, who was useless last night and Young. Imagine what Brad could do with Utah's roster? or if we had Gobert and Hood instead of KO and Young?

Cowens,

Has anybody ever told you that you have an obsessive personality?  Perk is gone.  Gobert plays for someone else.  Get over it.

Utah is UP to .500 after beating the 2nd worst team in the NBA?  WOOHOO!!!  There's a statement game if I've ever seen one!!  Oh, wait a second, that means that before they beat the crappy Lakers they had a losing record.

Here's another consideration:  the only real rebounders the Jazz have are Gobert and Favors.  So should it be surprising when the two of them get the lion's share of the Utah boards?  The Jazz are averaging 43.3 boards/game.  That's good for 18th in the league.  NOT very impressive.  Gobert is averaging 11.0/game and Favors is averaging 8.4/game.  That's 19.4 rebounds/game from 2 players, or 44.8% of Utah's total rebounding.  Are they such good rebounders, or are they rebounding because the rest of the team are shitty rebounders, or because everybody else boxes out and lets them go for the rebound because neither Gobert nor Favors run the floor well for bigs so why not use them to get the ball?  If you want to use stats to prove a point, fine, let's use them.  Btw, the Celtics, with girlie man Olynyk and softy Zeller, are 6th in the league in rebounding.  Care to do an analysis how many fast break points the duo of Gobert/Favors score vs how many Olynyk/Zeller do?  Do we have a player that is in the top 10 in rebounding?  No, but who gives a shit about a stat like that except for fantasy league players?

Gobert was drafted by Denver and then traded to Utah as part of a trade that brought Josef Nurkic to the Mile High City.  If you're pissed about not getting Gobert imagine what Nugget fans must be feeling?

In terms of the infamous +/- stat, for players >6'10", Gobert is 24th.  Maybe there are other factors besides rebounding and blocking shots that contribute to a team player helping the team win?   And the Jazz are celebrating getting their noses at .500.  Like scoring.  Gobert is averaging only 9.2ppg despite being the tallest guy on the court and playing 32 mpg.  Like assist-to-turnover ratios.  Gobert is 1.7 assists to 2.1 TOs/36mpg (girlie man Kelly Olynyk is 2.6 assists and 2.0 TOs/36mpg.  A POSITIVE number).  Like frito shooting.  Gobert is 58.1%.  Like 3pt shooting, to spread the floor.  Girlie man Kelly is shooting >40%.  Nobody even guards Gobert past 8'-10'.  Talk about clogging up the middle.  Our Carnival Cruise Ship, the S.S. Sullinger, can hang out around the dotted circle when Gobert is on top because, as long as he's out there, he is no threat to anybody.  If Gobert is setting a pick at the frito line or beyond he is effectively out of their offensive set.

Utah has the 3rd lowest scoring offense in the NBA, behind the Sixers and the Lakers.  The rumors on draft day were that Utah was going to draft Kelly Olynyk with the 14th pick.  That's why Danny moved up from 16 to take him at 13.  Maybe if Utah had gotten Kelly they wouldn't have the 3rd worst offense in the league now.  You only view things through the prism of defense, but there are two sides to the ball and Kelly is a MUCH better offensive player than Gobert, not just in ppg and assists and lower TOs but in how he opens the floor for others.  Kelly can create offense for himself and others, Gobert cannot score unless it is spoon-fed to him.

How about last Wednesday, when Gobert and the Jazz played the Rockets and Gobert had 2 points on 1-7, 7 boards and zero blocks?  The Rockets have a pretty good center, as you know.  And then on Thursday, when the Jazz played OKC and Gobert had 2 points on 1-2, 6 boards and 1 block.  Put Gobert against legit centers and he struggles.  Put him against obsolete thunder lizard Roy Hibbert and the immortal Robert Sacre and he rebounds.  In fact, Gobert has only averaged 5.3ppg on 42% shooting in his last 10 games.  

Can't argue about Young.  I think people fell in love with him because he went to Kentucky.  And yes, I would have taken Hood over Young too.  He scored 30 last night against the Lackers but he's averaging 14.6ppg in 31mpg, so let's not make TOO much of a big deal about him having a good game against a team with one of the worst defenses in the NBA.  He was 11-13 last night, 8-9 from 3, but he's shooting 42.3% on the year and 36.5% from 3.  Hmmm, is it possible some of his success last night, vs every other night, is because he was playing the Lackers?  The Lakers have the worst team +/- in the league.  In other words, the difference between their average offense minus their average defense is the #30 out of 30.  No wonder they got blown out by Utah, that's what has been happening all year!  They give up the 4th most points in the league while scoring the 2nd fewest!



bob


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arambone wrote:I wouldn't mind drafting 2 or 3 centers in the first round.

C/PF Poeltl in the high lottery
C Diamond Stone or AJ Hammons later
And one of the Euro centers in the first round too.

I don't think there's a Euro that can shoot the three like Jokic this year, but those big Europeans always seem to come over with size, toughness, IQ, and highly polished skill set. Adriatic League really seems to turn out a bunch of good nba centers:

Jokic, Nurkic, Pekovic, Vucivic, Antic, etc.

Olynyk's an elite backup center, but he could probably be an above average or elite starting power forward if he had a strong, mobile defensive center behind him. Sully is strong but not mobile enough for a KO/Sully starting combo to work, apparently.

bobheckler wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:Jazz up to .500 with pummeling of Lakers, ahead of Dallas. Two guys that Ainge passed on had monster games, Gobert with 19 rebounds in like 27 minutes and Hood with 30 points in the first half....and we have girlie man KO, who was useless last night and Young. Imagine what Brad could do with Utah's roster? or if we had Gobert and Hood instead of KO and Young?

Cowens,

Has anybody ever told you that you have an obsessive personality?  Perk is gone.  Gobert plays for someone else.  Get over it.

Utah is UP to .500 after beating the 2nd worst team in the NBA?  WOOHOO!!!  There's a statement game if I've ever seen one!!  Oh, wait a second, that means that before they beat the crappy Lakers they had a losing record.

Here's another consideration:  the only real rebounders the Jazz have are Gobert and Favors.  So should it be surprising when the two of them get the lion's share of the Utah boards?  The Jazz are averaging 43.3 boards/game.  That's good for 18th in the league.  NOT very impressive.  Gobert is averaging 11.0/game and Favors is averaging 8.4/game.  That's 19.4 rebounds/game from 2 players, or 44.8% of Utah's total rebounding.  Are they such good rebounders, or are they rebounding because the rest of the team are shitty rebounders, or because everybody else boxes out and lets them go for the rebound because neither Gobert nor Favors run the floor well for bigs so why not use them to get the ball?  If you want to use stats to prove a point, fine, let's use them.  Btw, the Celtics, with girlie man Olynyk and softy Zeller, are 6th in the league in rebounding.  Care to do an analysis how many fast break points the duo of Gobert/Favors score vs how many Olynyk/Zeller do?  Do we have a player that is in the top 10 in rebounding?  No, but who gives a shit about a stat like that except for fantasy league players?

Gobert was drafted by Denver and then traded to Utah as part of a trade that brought Josef Nurkic to the Mile High City.  If you're pissed about not getting Gobert imagine what Nugget fans must be feeling?

In terms of the infamous +/- stat, for players >6'10", Gobert is 24th.  Maybe there are other factors besides rebounding and blocking shots that contribute to a team player helping the team win?   And the Jazz are celebrating getting their noses at .500.  Like scoring.  Gobert is averaging only 9.2ppg despite being the tallest guy on the court and playing 32 mpg.  Like assist-to-turnover ratios.  Gobert is 1.7 assists to 2.1 TOs/36mpg (girlie man Kelly Olynyk is 2.6 assists and 2.0 TOs/36mpg.  A POSITIVE number).  Like frito shooting.  Gobert is 58.1%.  Like 3pt shooting, to spread the floor.  Girlie man Kelly is shooting >40%.  Nobody even guards Gobert past 8'-10'.  Talk about clogging up the middle.  Our Carnival Cruise Ship, the S.S. Sullinger, can hang out around the dotted circle when Gobert is on top because, as long as he's out there, he is no threat to anybody.  If Gobert is setting a pick at the frito line or beyond he is effectively out of their offensive set.

Utah has the 3rd lowest scoring offense in the NBA, behind the Sixers and the Lakers.  The rumors on draft day were that Utah was going to draft Kelly Olynyk with the 14th pick.  That's why Danny moved up from 16 to take him at 13.  Maybe if Utah had gotten Kelly they wouldn't have the 3rd worst offense in the league now.  You only view things through the prism of defense, but there are two sides to the ball and Kelly is a MUCH better offensive player than Gobert, not just in ppg and assists and lower TOs but in how he opens the floor for others.  Kelly can create offense for himself and others, Gobert cannot score unless it is spoon-fed to him.

How about last Wednesday, when Gobert and the Jazz played the Rockets and Gobert had 2 points on 1-7, 7 boards and zero blocks?  The Rockets have a pretty good center, as you know.  And then on Thursday, when the Jazz played OKC and Gobert had 2 points on 1-2, 6 boards and 1 block.  Put Gobert against legit centers and he struggles.  Put him against obsolete thunder lizard Roy Hibbert and the immortal Robert Sacre and he rebounds.  In fact, Gobert has only averaged 5.3ppg on 42% shooting in his last 10 games.  

Can't argue about Young.  I think people fell in love with him because he went to Kentucky.  And yes, I would have taken Hood over Young too.  He scored 30 last night against the Lackers but he's averaging 14.6ppg in 31mpg, so let's not make TOO much of a big deal about him having a good game against a team with one of the worst defenses in the NBA.  He was 11-13 last night, 8-9 from 3, but he's shooting 42.3% on the year and 36.5% from 3.  Hmmm, is it possible some of his success last night, vs every other night, is because he was playing the Lackers?  The Lakers have the worst team +/- in the league.  In other words, the difference between their average offense minus their average defense is the #30 out of 30.  No wonder they got blown out by Utah, that's what has been happening all year!  They give up the 4th most points in the league while scoring the 2nd fewest!



bob


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arambone wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:

arambone wrote:I wouldn't mind drafting 2 or 3 centers in the first round.

C/PF Poeltl in the high lottery
C Diamond Stone or AJ Hammons later
And one of the Euro centers in the first round too.

I don't think there's a Euro that can shoot the three like Jokic this year, but those big Europeans always seem to come over with size, toughness, IQ, and highly polished skill set. Adriatic League really seems to turn out a bunch of good nba centers:

Jokic, Nurkic, Pekovic, Vucivic, Antic, etc.

Olynyk's an elite backup center, but he could probably be an above average or elite starting power forward if he had a strong, mobile defensive center behind him. Sully is strong but not mobile enough for a KO/Sully starting combo to work, apparently.

Sully and Olynyk "make a top 3-5 center tandem in the NBA"???

I vehemently disagree.


so if a KO-Sully combination doesn't work its on Sully the brute, like KO has no weaknesses or you seem to always choose to ignore them cause hes perfect for this era right bonehead?

Olynyk has the third best +/- per game on the team, despite only playing 20 mpg. The two years before that his +/- were either first or second on the team, I forget.

I'm not saying Olynyk doesn't have any weaknesses, and I seem to be higher on Sully than you. Together they make a top 3-5 center tandem in the NBA.

I'd even be content with Olynyk continuing to come off the bench next year, with Sully starting at center and an upgrade over Amir starting at PF. Maybe Al Horford.

I never said Sully must go and Olynyk has no flaws. Olynyk's biggest flaw is the same as Gobert's, manning up 280+ lb giants like Dwight Howard, the Lopez bros, Okafor, etc. Gobert wouldn't even solve that problem. And it's not even really a problem with Sully holding down the fort and Olynyk pulling them out of the paint, and outrunning them up and down the court.

If I didn't think Olynyk had any flaws, I wouldn't have suggested the Celtics draft two or three bigs in the first round.