Checking In On The Dallas Draft Pick

steve3344 wrote:

arambone wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:

arambone wrote:I wouldn't mind drafting 2 or 3 centers in the first round.

C/PF Poeltl in the high lottery
C Diamond Stone or AJ Hammons later
And one of the Euro centers in the first round too.

I don't think there's a Euro that can shoot the three like Jokic this year, but those big Europeans always seem to come over with size, toughness, IQ, and highly polished skill set. Adriatic League really seems to turn out a bunch of good nba centers:

Jokic, Nurkic, Pekovic, Vucivic, Antic, etc.

Olynyk's an elite backup center, but he could probably be an above average or elite starting power forward if he had a strong, mobile defensive center behind him. Sully is strong but not mobile enough for a KO/Sully starting combo to work, apparently.

Sully and Olynyk "make a top 3-5 center tandem in the NBA"???

I vehemently disagree.


so if a KO-Sully combination doesn't work its on Sully the brute, like KO has no weaknesses or you seem to always choose to ignore them cause hes perfect for this era right bonehead?

Olynyk has the third best +/- per game on the team, despite only playing 20 mpg. The two years before that his +/- were either first or second on the team, I forget.

I'm not saying Olynyk doesn't have any weaknesses, and I seem to be higher on Sully than you. Together they make a top 3-5 center tandem in the NBA.

I'd even be content with Olynyk continuing to come off the bench next year, with Sully starting at center and an upgrade over Amir starting at PF. Maybe Al Horford.

I never said Sully must go and Olynyk has no flaws. Olynyk's biggest flaw is the same as Gobert's, manning up 280+ lb giants like Dwight Howard, the Lopez bros, Okafor, etc. Gobert wouldn't even solve that problem. And it's not even really a problem with Sully holding down the fort and Olynyk pulling them out of the paint, and outrunning them up and down the court.

If I didn't think Olynyk had any flaws, I wouldn't have suggested the Celtics draft two or three bigs in the first round.

Sully and Olynyk "make a top 3-5 center tandem in the NBA"???

I strongly disagree.

me too and I love Sully, hes a football player playing basketball, unfortunately both of them are natural 4's or PF's playing out of position at center. bobbyh keeps saying KO is not a 5, hes a stretch 4 and I would have to agree so to me neither are centers, neither offers even average rim protection.....I'm trying to like them, but neither is a real center so together I don't see how they could be in the top 3-5 center tandem.

bobc33 wrote:Convivial gentlemen convivial.......

hey bobbyc great avitar, now theres the perfect center for pace and space and small ball!!!

Don't worry about myself and heckler, were always good.

cowens/oldschool wrote:

bobheckler wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:Jazz up to .500 with pummeling of Lakers, ahead of Dallas. Two guys that Ainge passed on had monster games, Gobert with 19 rebounds in like 27 minutes and Hood with 30 points in the first half....and we have girlie man KO, who was useless last night and Young. Imagine what Brad could do with Utah's roster? or if we had Gobert and Hood instead of KO and Young?

Cowens,

Has anybody ever told you that you have an obsessive personality?  Perk is gone.  Gobert plays for someone else.  Get over it.

Utah is UP to .500 after beating the 2nd worst team in the NBA?  WOOHOO!!!  There's a statement game if I've ever seen one!!  Oh, wait a second, that means that before they beat the crappy Lakers they had a losing record.

Here's another consideration:  the only real rebounders the Jazz have are Gobert and Favors.  So should it be surprising when the two of them get the lion's share of the Utah boards?  The Jazz are averaging 43.3 boards/game.  That's good for 18th in the league.  NOT very impressive.  Gobert is averaging 11.0/game and Favors is averaging 8.4/game.  That's 19.4 rebounds/game from 2 players, or 44.8% of Utah's total rebounding.  Are they such good rebounders, or are they rebounding because the rest of the team are shitty rebounders, or because everybody else boxes out and lets them go for the rebound because neither Gobert nor Favors run the floor well for bigs so why not use them to get the ball?  If you want to use stats to prove a point, fine, let's use them.  Btw, the Celtics, with girlie man Olynyk and softy Zeller, are 6th in the league in rebounding.  Care to do an analysis how many fast break points the duo of Gobert/Favors score vs how many Olynyk/Zeller do?  Do we have a player that is in the top 10 in rebounding?  No, but who gives a shit about a stat like that except for fantasy league players?

Gobert was drafted by Denver and then traded to Utah as part of a trade that brought Josef Nurkic to the Mile High City.  If you're pissed about not getting Gobert imagine what Nugget fans must be feeling?

In terms of the infamous +/- stat, for players >6'10", Gobert is 24th.  Maybe there are other factors besides rebounding and blocking shots that contribute to a team player helping the team win?   And the Jazz are celebrating getting their noses at .500.  Like scoring.  Gobert is averaging only 9.2ppg despite being the tallest guy on the court and playing 32 mpg.  Like assist-to-turnover ratios.  Gobert is 1.7 assists to 2.1 TOs/36mpg (girlie man Kelly Olynyk is 2.6 assists and 2.0 TOs/36mpg.  A POSITIVE number).  Like frito shooting.  Gobert is 58.1%.  Like 3pt shooting, to spread the floor.  Girlie man Kelly is shooting >40%.  Nobody even guards Gobert past 8'-10'.  Talk about clogging up the middle.  Our Carnival Cruise Ship, the S.S. Sullinger, can hang out around the dotted circle when Gobert is on top because, as long as he's out there, he is no threat to anybody.  If Gobert is setting a pick at the frito line or beyond he is effectively out of their offensive set.

Utah has the 3rd lowest scoring offense in the NBA, behind the Sixers and the Lakers.  The rumors on draft day were that Utah was going to draft Kelly Olynyk with the 14th pick.  That's why Danny moved up from 16 to take him at 13.  Maybe if Utah had gotten Kelly they wouldn't have the 3rd worst offense in the league now.  You only view things through the prism of defense, but there are two sides to the ball and Kelly is a MUCH better offensive player than Gobert, not just in ppg and assists and lower TOs but in how he opens the floor for others.  Kelly can create offense for himself and others, Gobert cannot score unless it is spoon-fed to him.

How about last Wednesday, when Gobert and the Jazz played the Rockets and Gobert had 2 points on 1-7, 7 boards and zero blocks?  The Rockets have a pretty good center, as you know.  And then on Thursday, when the Jazz played OKC and Gobert had 2 points on 1-2, 6 boards and 1 block.  Put Gobert against legit centers and he struggles.  Put him against obsolete thunder lizard Roy Hibbert and the immortal Robert Sacre and he rebounds.  In fact, Gobert has only averaged 5.3ppg on 42% shooting in his last 10 games.  

Can't argue about Young.  I think people fell in love with him because he went to Kentucky.  And yes, I would have taken Hood over Young too.  He scored 30 last night against the Lackers but he's averaging 14.6ppg in 31mpg, so let's not make TOO much of a big deal about him having a good game against a team with one of the worst defenses in the NBA.  He was 11-13 last night, 8-9 from 3, but he's shooting 42.3% on the year and 36.5% from 3.  Hmmm, is it possible some of his success last night, vs every other night, is because he was playing the Lackers?  The Lakers have the worst team +/- in the league.  In other words, the difference between their average offense minus their average defense is the #30 out of 30.  No wonder they got blown out by Utah, that's what has been happening all year!  They give up the 4th most points in the league while scoring the 2nd fewest!



bob


.

and when the fock did I bring up Perk in my post?

Cow,

You brought the Perk trade up on the Game On thread.

See? I really do read what you write.


bob


.

cowens/oldschool wrote:

bobc33 wrote:Convivial gentlemen convivial.......

hey bobbyc great avitar, now theres the perfect center for pace and space and small ball!!!

Don't worry about myself and heckler, were always good.

The avatar is Cowens famous leveling of Mike Newlin of course!

I wasn't worried about you and BobH, more you calling another poster "bonehead." Just don't like seeing disagreements get personal in that way.

bobh are you gonna answer my question on this thread at 8:34 pm yesterday, the last sentence?

bobc33 wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:

bobc33 wrote:Convivial gentlemen convivial.......

hey bobbyc great avitar, now theres the perfect center for pace and space and small ball!!!

Don't worry about myself and heckler, were always good.

The avatar is Cowens famous leveling of Mike Newlin of course!

I wasn't worried about you and BobH, more you calling another poster "bonehead."  Just don't like seeing disagreements get personal in that way.

bro bone is in his name, he changes it, but always keeps the bone in there

bobc33 wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:

bobc33 wrote:Convivial gentlemen convivial.......

hey bobbyc great avitar, now theres the perfect center for pace and space and small ball!!!

Don't worry about myself and heckler, were always good.

The avatar is Cowens famous leveling of Mike Newlin of course!

I wasn't worried about you and BobH, more you calling another poster "bonehead."  Just don't like seeing disagreements get personal in that way.

bobc,

Just in case there is someone on this board who hasn't heard me say (BRAG, really) that I was at that game where Dave Cowens sprinted across the court and blasted Newlin over the scorer's table, here you go.

I had the best seats I have ever had in my life, 2nd row, floor, midcourt.  The row of folding chairs right behind the people whose noses are on the sidelines.  I saw and heard it all.

As everybody knows, Dave Cowens LOATHED flopping.  He considered it "disrespecting the game'.

Dave Cowens was coming down the court, at an easy jog, Newlin was getting back on defense.  As Cowens got close, Newlin drifted in front of Cowens and threw himself backwards with a loud yell at the first touch by Cowens.  Cowens was called for an offensive foul.  Cowens looked at Newlin on the floor with disgust and started talking to the ref about how he was fooled and 'c'mon, get with it', etc.  Mike Newlin was a 6'4", 220+ # SG.  Very muscular, very solid.  He looked like a mini-Cowens, with a beard.  Knocking him down was not easy, unless he wanted to be.

Another sequence or two later, the same thing happened.  Cowens jogged down court, Newlin drifted in front of them and, at the slightest touch, flew backwards like he had been hit by the 5:04 to Louisville.  Offensive foul on Cowens.  This happened almost directly in front of me at mid-court.  Now, Cowens glares at Newlin on the floor with a look of pure maniacal hatred.  He runs to catch up with the ref who is heading the other way and is barking at him.  In today's NBA he'd have been called for a T, or two and been gone, but in those days the refs gave it back to the players as well as they got.  You really had to make it personal to get T'd up back then.

The very next sequence, Newlin is running down the sideline along the scorer's table, the opposite side of the court from me.  Cowens, who was on my side of the court on the play, started running along the sidelines on my side and then, suddenly, at around 30-35' from the basket, before the mid-court logo, he turns hard right and sprints across the court and blasts Newlin over the scorer's table, as you can see in BobC's avatar.  One second he's there, next second all you see is his two legs spread and straight up, like an old TV rabbit ear antenna as they, and he, disappear over the table.

Cowens then immediately turned and screamed at the official, who was on my side of the court, "NOW THAT'S A FOUL!!".

Cowens then, without another word or needing to be told, walked to the Celtic bench and sat down with his 3rd foul.

I do not believe he was ejected from that game nor suspended by the league.  The players might not have been as athletic as today's players, but they were tough guys, real tough guys.


bob
P.S.  +1, Bob, on the comment about not name-calling.  Disagreeing about players, plays, strategies, trades etc is fine.  Making it personal about the poster isn't.  If one wants to make a derogatory comment about a person, make it about a player or a sportswriter and NOT about a member of Sam's Celtic Forum.  That is what separates us from just about every other board.  Let's not surrender our uniqueness to frustration and to the siren call of anonymity granted by the internet and fictitious screen names (except for mine.  That's why I used my real name.  It was to remind me that every post by me reflected on me personally).


.

arambone wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:

arambone wrote:I wouldn't mind drafting 2 or 3 centers in the first round.

C/PF Poeltl in the high lottery
C Diamond Stone or AJ Hammons later
And one of the Euro centers in the first round too.

I don't think there's a Euro that can shoot the three like Jokic this year, but those big Europeans always seem to come over with size, toughness, IQ, and highly polished skill set. Adriatic League really seems to turn out a bunch of good nba centers:

Jokic, Nurkic, Pekovic, Vucivic, Antic, etc.

Olynyk's an elite backup center, but he could probably be an above average or elite starting power forward if he had a strong, mobile defensive center behind him. Sully is strong but not mobile enough for a KO/Sully starting combo to work, apparently.

so if a KO-Sully combination doesn't work its on Sully the brute, like KO has no weaknesses or you seem to always choose to ignore them cause hes perfect for this era right bonehead?

Olynyk has the third best +/- per game on the team, despite only playing 20 mpg. The two years before that his +/- were either first or second on the team, I forget.

I'm not saying Olynyk doesn't have any weaknesses, and I seem to be higher on Sully than you. Together they make a top 3-5 center tandem in the NBA.

I'd even be content with Olynyk continuing to come off the bench next year, with Sully starting at center and an upgrade over Amir starting at PF. Maybe Al Horford.

I never said Sully must go and Olynyk has no flaws. Olynyk's biggest flaw is the same as Gobert's, manning up 280+ lb giants like Dwight Howard, the Lopez bros, Okafor, etc. Gobert wouldn't even solve that problem. And it's not even really a problem with Sully holding down the fort and Olynyk pulling them out of the paint, and outrunning them up and down the court.

If I didn't think Olynyk had any flaws, I wouldn't have suggested the Celtics draft two or three bigs in the first round.

Cowens,


You asked "bobh are you gonna answer my question on this thread at 8:34 pm yesterday, the last sentence?"


I didn't realize this post was addressed to me.

Your last sentence:

"If I didn't think Olynyk had any flaws, I wouldn't have suggested the Celtics draft two or three bigs in the first round."


Why would anybody ever think you didn't think Olynyk had flaws?

Maybe the reason why I didn't respond to that is because it didn't make any sense to me.



bob


.

bobh,

I could not find any post from Cowens at 8:24, perhaps the time he wrote was wrong. Maybe his request was in regards to the Perk question, which you had answered.

You just used a post from arambone to reply to Cowens. That post had nothing to do with you. Maybe that is why it didn't make any sense to you.

Seriously confused,

gyso

Boston Celtics 2016 NBA Draft Pick Tracker

http://www.celticsblog.com/2016/3/15/11231828/boston-celtics-2016-nba-draft-pick-tracker-ben-simmons-nets-mavericks-trade-asset-rumor-ingram

It's a good time to be a Boston Celtics fan. The Cs are a thriving playoff team that's also in a prime position to make an impactful move this summer. But they'll need some lottery luck for their war chest of picks to be as valuable as it can be.

Bookmark this page, which will be updated each day, for the latest odds and positioning on all three Celtics first-round picks in the 2016 NBA Draft. Also, please pre-order my 2016 NBA Draft Guide, and keep tabs on CelticsBlog for the latest on the prospects that could be future Celtics.

On Tuesday....

The Nets lost to the Magic (that's good).

The Rockets beat the Cavs (that's good).

The Bulls beat the Pacers (that's good).

The Wizards lost to the Warriors (that's bad).

If the season ended today, the Celtics would have the 4th-best lottery odds, and the following picks: 12th or 13th (lottery), 22nd, 31st, 35th, 42nd, 53rd, and 58th.

Nets pick (unprotected, currently 4th-best odds)

The Nets pick has a 11.0% chance of being No. 1 and a 37.8% chance of landing in the top 3. Brooklyn is one game behind the Suns (3rd spot) and four games ahead of the 5th (Wolves). Celtics fans should root for the Nets to lose, and both the Suns and Wolves to win. Here are the games over the next week with implications on the Nets pick:

[My comment: you will need to use the link to see the chart, it doesn't translate to this format nicely]

Mavs pick (Top 7 protected, currently 12th)

The Mavs are one half game behind the Rockets (8th-seed). Celtics fans should root for the Mavs to lose, and the Rockets and Jazz to win, as well as the Wizards and Bulls. The pick won't have better than the 12th-best odds, which is good for the Celtics. The pick is Top-7 protected, which means you don't want the Mavs to win the lottery. Here are the games with implications on the pick over the next week:

[My comment: again, you will need to use the link to see the chart]

Celtics pick (currently 22nd)

The Celtics are the 5th seed in the East and trail by one half game behind the Heat (4th seed).

The NBA Draft Lottery will be on May 17. The NBA Draft is on June 23.

gyso wrote:bobh,

I could not find any post from Cowens at 8:24, perhaps the time he wrote was wrong.  Maybe his request was in regards to the Perk question, which you had answered.

You just used a post from arambone to reply to Cowens.  That post had nothing to do with you.  Maybe that is why it didn't make any sense to you.

Seriously confused,

gyso

gyso,

Yes, that would explain it, wouldn't it?

Thanks for straightening that out for me. I was confused about the date stamp too, so I used the post that was 8:15.


bob


.

its 8:34 not 24, I just marked it this one, but couldn't get it over here.

so bobh looks like you don't want to answer my question.....by the way Gobert can play vs legit centers, had 11- 18 boards and 2 blocks last night vs Bogut and GS. He does his job.

bobheckler wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:

bobheckler wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:Jazz up to .500 with pummeling of Lakers, ahead of Dallas. Two guys that Ainge passed on had monster games, Gobert with 19 rebounds in like 27 minutes and Hood with 30 points in the first half....and we have girlie man KO, who was useless last night and Young. Imagine what Brad could do with Utah's roster? or if we had Gobert and Hood instead of KO and Young?

Cowens,

Has anybody ever told you that you have an obsessive personality?  Perk is gone.  Gobert plays for someone else.  Get over it.

Utah is UP to .500 after beating the 2nd worst team in the NBA?  WOOHOO!!!  There's a statement game if I've ever seen one!!  Oh, wait a second, that means that before they beat the crappy Lakers they had a losing record.

Here's another consideration:  the only real rebounders the Jazz have are Gobert and Favors.  So should it be surprising when the two of them get the lion's share of the Utah boards?  The Jazz are averaging 43.3 boards/game.  That's good for 18th in the league.  NOT very impressive.  Gobert is averaging 11.0/game and Favors is averaging 8.4/game.  That's 19.4 rebounds/game from 2 players, or 44.8% of Utah's total rebounding.  Are they such good rebounders, or are they rebounding because the rest of the team are shitty rebounders, or because everybody else boxes out and lets them go for the rebound because neither Gobert nor Favors run the floor well for bigs so why not use them to get the ball?  If you want to use stats to prove a point, fine, let's use them.  Btw, the Celtics, with girlie man Olynyk and softy Zeller, are 6th in the league in rebounding.  Care to do an analysis how many fast break points the duo of Gobert/Favors score vs how many Olynyk/Zeller do?  Do we have a player that is in the top 10 in rebounding?  No, but who gives a shit about a stat like that except for fantasy league players?

Gobert was drafted by Denver and then traded to Utah as part of a trade that brought Josef Nurkic to the Mile High City.  If you're pissed about not getting Gobert imagine what Nugget fans must be feeling?

In terms of the infamous +/- stat, for players >6'10", Gobert is 24th.  Maybe there are other factors besides rebounding and blocking shots that contribute to a team player helping the team win?   And the Jazz are celebrating getting their noses at .500.  Like scoring.  Gobert is averaging only 9.2ppg despite being the tallest guy on the court and playing 32 mpg.  Like assist-to-turnover ratios.  Gobert is 1.7 assists to 2.1 TOs/36mpg (girlie man Kelly Olynyk is 2.6 assists and 2.0 TOs/36mpg.  A POSITIVE number).  Like frito shooting.  Gobert is 58.1%.  Like 3pt shooting, to spread the floor.  Girlie man Kelly is shooting >40%.  Nobody even guards Gobert past 8'-10'.  Talk about clogging up the middle.  Our Carnival Cruise Ship, the S.S. Sullinger, can hang out around the dotted circle when Gobert is on top because, as long as he's out there, he is no threat to anybody.  If Gobert is setting a pick at the frito line or beyond he is effectively out of their offensive set.

Utah has the 3rd lowest scoring offense in the NBA, behind the Sixers and the Lakers.  The rumors on draft day were that Utah was going to draft Kelly Olynyk with the 14th pick.  That's why Danny moved up from 16 to take him at 13.  Maybe if Utah had gotten Kelly they wouldn't have the 3rd worst offense in the league now.  You only view things through the prism of defense, but there are two sides to the ball and Kelly is a MUCH better offensive player than Gobert, not just in ppg and assists and lower TOs but in how he opens the floor for others.  Kelly can create offense for himself and others, Gobert cannot score unless it is spoon-fed to him.

How about last Wednesday, when Gobert and the Jazz played the Rockets and Gobert had 2 points on 1-7, 7 boards and zero blocks?  The Rockets have a pretty good center, as you know.  And then on Thursday, when the Jazz played OKC and Gobert had 2 points on 1-2, 6 boards and 1 block.  Put Gobert against legit centers and he struggles.  Put him against obsolete thunder lizard Roy Hibbert and the immortal Robert Sacre and he rebounds.  In fact, Gobert has only averaged 5.3ppg on 42% shooting in his last 10 games.  

Can't argue about Young.  I think people fell in love with him because he went to Kentucky.  And yes, I would have taken Hood over Young too.  He scored 30 last night against the Lackers but he's averaging 14.6ppg in 31mpg, so let's not make TOO much of a big deal about him having a good game against a team with one of the worst defenses in the NBA.  He was 11-13 last night, 8-9 from 3, but he's shooting 42.3% on the year and 36.5% from 3.  Hmmm, is it possible some of his success last night, vs every other night, is because he was playing the Lackers?  The Lakers have the worst team +/- in the league.  In other words, the difference between their average offense minus their average defense is the #30 out of 30.  No wonder they got blown out by Utah, that's what has been happening all year!  They give up the 4th most points in the league while scoring the 2nd fewest!



bob


.

and when the fock did I bring up Perk in my post?

Cow,

You brought the Perk trade up on the Game On thread.

See?  I really do read what you write.


bob


.

so why don't you answer the focking question? from 8:34 addressed to you?

cowens/oldschool wrote:its 8:34 not 24, I just marked it this one, but couldn't get it over here.

Cowens,


Re: Checking In On The Dallas Draft Pick
Post by cowens/oldschool on Tue Mar 29, 2016 6:34 pm

by the way bob Gobert missed almost 2 months of this season with a foot injury, I don't have the exact records of with him and without, but I'm pretty sure they are much better with him. Hood has just started to tap into his potential and is now getting regular starters minutes, earlier he was just finding his game and not getting the minutes he is getting now, he could be easily a 17-18 ppg scorer next year which is light years ahead of James Young, will he even be on a NBA roster next year? I got a hypothetical question for you, would you rather have Gobert and Hood on this years Celtics or KO and Young?



this one bob


First of all, it's time stamped 6:34, not 8:34.  Efforts at responding to you precisely have been hampered by your lack of precision.


Moving on to your question:

Let's begin with the low hanging fruit.  I am not going to defend James Young.  I would trade James Young for a one-eyed, 3-legged yellow dog and then find the dog a good home and consider myself ahead.  So, certainly, I would take Rodney Hood over James Young.  Hood hasn't had a great career to-date, he's averaging 42% shooting and that's not good for a shooter, but he still beats the snot out of a loser to a invalided canine.  

As far as the Gobert vs Olynyk comparison goes that's more complicated, as much as you would like to make it not so.

Defensively, Gobert takes the brass ring, especially around the rim.  He is a shot-blocker and shot intimidator par excellence (a tongue-in-cheek homage to his French origins).  Offensively, he is DeAndre Jordan without the strength to finish through contact like Jordan.  Both of those players need elite passers to spoon feed them everything offensively.  Anything other than dunks are beyond their skill sets.  They cannot dribble nor can they pass.  The ability of defenses to pack the paint when they are on the floor puts tremendous pressure on the other 4 players to shoot and score efficiently because they, Gobert and Jordan, are liabilities on offense.  Liabilities, Cow, they are liabilities on offense.  They do not run, especially not Gobert, nor can they shoot fritos.  You cannot have either of them on the floor in clutch time because they will be hack-a-Gobert'd and likely create an empty possession at key periods.  What good is a player that cannot be on the floor when you need them most and everybody knows it?

Another aspect of Gobert's defense that is often understated is that he doesn't like to leave the paint.  That worked just fine, back in the old days, but if you leave today's players alone out there, they will kill you.  Players exactly, precisely, like Kelly Olynyk.  Not even Gobert can block a shot if he's 15' away from the shooter, and that's the difference between a modern player like 7' Kelly Olynyk shooting from 22' and his defender being down near the dotted line at around 7'.  This is the same problem, btw, that Jordan and Whiteside have, they don't like to leave the paint.  Whiteside hasn't started a game since 1/20/16 despite his defensive rim protecting skills.  Coincidence?  Try reading the 'Comments from the Other Side' posts from our games vs the Heat, read what their fans say about him and how he hurts them by not being willing/able to leave the paint and go defend at the perimeter in a league that is clearly moving outward to the perimeter.

Kelly is an adequate, but not good, good man-to-man defender.  He especially struggles defensively if his man is in the low blocks and any room at all to move on Kelly before help comes.  He is a better help defender since he doesn't bear the bulk of the responsibility for defending a player.  Offensively, Gobert cannot compare to Kelly anymore than Kelly can compare to Gobert defensively.  This is why it is complicated.  They are almost mirror-opposites of each other.

You cannot imagine Kelly as being defensively intimidating (neither can I).  Well, I cannot imagine Gobert being intimidating offensively.  In our last game vs Utah, Gobert had the ball at the frito line and Zeller backed halfway to the dotted line.  He begged Gobert to take the equivalent of a frito.  He didn't, of course, because 15' is WAY outside his range.  Furthermore, Gobert is not a good passing big man.  The result?  Gobert had to pass the ball and he did it outward, towards the perimeter and not towards the rim.  He dared not put the ball on the floor and take it to Zeller.  You like to include Zeller as one of your least favorite defensive players.  Well, what does it say about Gobert that he couldn't/wouldn't even try to take Zeller?  What does it say about Gobert that Zeller was so completely unafraid of Gobert at 15' he was willing to cede all the space between 15' to 8'?  Zeller was, with Brad's blessing, willing to allow Gobert to get to the dotted circle without challenge.  Gobert has taken 8 fgas outside the paint all year.  8.  He hit 1, from the elbow.  12.5% fg% for Gobert outside the paint.  In the painted area between the dotted circle and the free throw line he is 4-14, for 28.5%.  He's excrement from 4'-15', Cowens.  We cringe when Smart shoots from 3, because he's shooting 24.7% from there.  Gobert is only 4% better from 4'-15' than Smart is from 21'.  In fact, if you exclude Smart's corner 3pt fgas, he's shooting 26.8% from 3.  He's less than 2% worse than Gobert from straight away 3 than Gobert is from anywhere in the paint outside 4', and we avert our eyes when Smart takes a 3, it's so painful to watch.  How do you think you would feel if Gobert was our starting center you had to watch him throw up bricks from 12' on a regular basis?  Or watch the clock run down because it's 4 guys trying to get an open shot against 5?  Forget about the percentages, if you want, and just picture the bricks, the empty possessions and the fast break points you give up because our center, Rudy Gobert, doesn't run well in transition.  Do you really think nobody know that he's incompetent offensively and adjusts their defenses accordingly?  There's a reason why he doesn't take many fgas from out there, it's because he's terrible and he knows it.

So, in conclusion, it depends where your emphasis is.  If you need a rim protector and are willing to sacrifice any pretense of 5-man offense as well as being able to have all 5 players out at the perimeter running players off the 3pt arc, then Gobert is your man.  If you have confidence in your defensive schemes, have confidence in the speed, athleticism and BBIQ of your players and are willing to bank on team defense to get the job done but want a player whose offensive skills will open the floor for cutters and movement, then it's Kelly.  Considering how good our defense is ranked, I'd say that we've done pretty well without your elite rim protector.  It doesn't matter if a shot misses because it's swatted, or threatened with being swatted, or because anybody who comes into the paint gets swarmed and stripped.  I know you're not a fan of stats, unless it's 'blocked shots' and 'shots at the rim', so let's work with those.  Utah gives up 28.6 fgas <5' from the rim/game, good for 12th in the league, while we give up 29.6 fgas <5'/game, good for 17th.  So, we only give up 1 more fga/game at the rim than Utah despite them having Gobert.  If his strength is rim protection, and we have none, then why are we only 1 fgas/game more than them?  Opponents shoot 56.3% vs Utah <4', while we give up 57.9%.  1.6%.  BFD.  Utah blocks 5.2 shots/game, we block 4.2.  1/game difference.  BFD.  Is that worth a player who doesn't contribute to the team's offense and offensive flow?

At the risk of sounding like a love-struck teenager, I think Mickey might solve our problems.  He's a rim protector but he also has offense inside and outside to make defending him with a single player tough, has some footspeed to stay with drivers and will also go out to the arc to intimidate shooters there.  Gobert's defensive intimidations end at the dotted line.  Mickey's can go out to 3.

You say you are a 'historian' and not a stat geek.  That might be a fair self-description.  Realize what you said, though.  You admitted that you are backward-looking, historically-oriented if you prefer, in how you view the game and players.  This is not the past, this is the present heading into the future.  You say you have accepted that the game has changed and the old school ways are dead but you keep wanting old school players to fill out your roster.  Make up your mind.  Are you on board with this new NBA or are you still thinking the old ways will still work?  And while you're working on that question think about this one too, "why aren't NBA coaches and GMs looking for old school players more like you?".  Do you think they know something?

Finally, whether Utah was better or worse without Gobert doesn't mean much.  That might just mean they suck and have no depth without him, not that he's so great.  Who is their back up center?  Jeff Withey.  And you have a problem with Zeller?  Maybe the reason why Utah lost without Gobert is because he's the only elite defender on the team and it's a 5-man squad on the floor at all times.

Did that answer your focking question?


bob


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Good focking analysis bob, I wasn't looking for all that, but you make some compelling points. Now for the big question, for this team now, lets say your GM, would you rather have Gobert and Hood or KO and Young? You made valid analysis without answering the question.....I get this is a new era, but the last 5 NBA champions all did not win with a stretch 5. Mavs won with Dirk as a strech 4, but Dirk could also score inside and post and he played with Tyson Chandler who was a key weapon/force in the Finals, challenging and stopping the Heat on drives to the basket. The last 2 champions didn't get 3 point shooting from their 4-5's, but got the necessary defense and rebounding needed from those positions. I accept this is a new era, but don't fool yourself, you still need toughness in the paint or you can't win; which is exactly why KO will never be a 35 mpg starter, cause you can't win with a soft marshmallow like that either.

cowens/oldschool wrote:Good focking analysis bob, I wasn't looking for all that, but you make some compelling points. Now for the big question, for this team now, lets say your GM, would you rather have Gobert and Hood or KO and Young? You made valid analysis without answering the question.....I get this is a new era, but the last 5 NBA champions all did not win with a stretch 5. Mavs won with Dirk as a strech 4, but Dirk could also score inside and post and he played with Tyson Chandler who was a key weapon/force in the Finals, challenging and stopping  the Heat on drives to the basket. The last 2 champions didn't get 3 point shooting from their 4-5's, but got the necessary defense and rebounding needed from those positions. I accept this is a new era, but don't fool yourself, you still need toughness in the paint or you can't win; which is exactly why KO will never be a 35 mpg starter, cause you can't win with a soft marshmallow like that either.

Cow,

I'll answer that in, say, 4 months.  Why 4 months?

1.  We're not going to win the championship this year anyway, so it doesn't matter about this team.

2.  That's after the draft and all the pre-and-post draft maneuverings.

3.  That's after the free agent moratorium is lifted and the first two flurries of signings and/or trades because they didn't get their signings.

Just to play along with your "either/or" game:
If Danny picks up a bruiser or quality low post defender, then I'd take Kelly and move Sully (or, even better, Amir and keep Sully).  
If Danny doesn't pick up a bruiser or low post defender, then I'd take Gobert and move Kelly or Sully/Amir.  Sully and Gobert might clog the middle too much and Gobert and Amir certainly would.

But why can't I have Kelly and Gobert?  It's not like they play the same style of game.  I think having to choose between them is a false choice.  You're doing it because Gobert and Kelly, and Hood and Young, were the same drafts.  So what?  That is irrelevant now.  If Utah were to trade us today Gobert for everybody on the squad except for Kelly what does that have to do with them being in the same draft?  You are creating an unnecessary condition.  Once the draft is over, and CBA trading moratoriums have been met, the limitations regarding how many picks you get from a specific draft and when you pick and who is or is not still available become moot. I don't do time travel. If I did I wouldn't waste it on this crap, I'd go back to the early '80s and tell my younger self to put everything I had into Apple and Microsoft stock.

GSW got 281 fgas out of a team total of 498 in the Finals vs Cleveland from Curry, Thompson and Iguodala.  That's 56.4%.  Add the 63 from their Swiss Army Knife, Draymond Green, and that's 244 out of 498, 48.9%.  Half the shots from 4 players.  GSW's 4 bigs (Bogut, Ezeli, Lee and Speights) played a total of 179 minutes in 6 games.  That's less than 30mpg by 4s and 5s.  Not only didn't the Champions not get a lot of 3pt scoring from their 4s and 5s, their 4s and 5s barely played.  Timofey Mozgov, alone, played 170.  Of GSW's 498 fgas, 186 of them were 3s.  37.3%.  GSW's 4 bigs had a total of 8 blocks.  Green had 7.  Mozgov had 9.  It was a guard-and-wing dominated Finals.    

And who is the best team in the league, on track to set a new single season W-L record?  The 3pt shooting team of GSW.

In 2014-2015, Bogut played 1338 minutes.  That was good for 7th on the team.  Back up guard Shaun Livingstone played more minutes than the starting center.



bob


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OK, you two...Sam is still watching! He would have IM'ed you both by now and put you in timeout. Now kiss and make up. Cowens, you still have the best avatar!

db

dbrown4 wrote:OK, you two...Sam is still watching!  He would have IM'ed you both by now and put you in timeout.  Now kiss and make up.  Cowens, you still have the best avatar!

db

dbrown,

I appreciate that.  In Cowens' case, he should be put in the corner and timed out.

Just kidding.  

Cowens and I are friends on and off the board.  We talk on the phone and have beers whenever I am in NYC.  Steve3344 too.  Last time I was there we watched some hoops and had beers at Steve's place.  Cowens uses words like "focking" because he thinks that makes him more genteel than using the word most people use, so I give it back to him.  If you noticed, beat started a thread about his son, Marcus.  I've met both of them, and beat's wife, more than once.  Had dinner with them and went to games.  I'm the President of Marcus' San Francisco fan club.  He's a ridiculously good kid, the beats (beat and the wife who beats him) did an outstanding job raising him.  I've met Cowens' kid too.  When he gets older and puts on some weight and muscle he is going to be a killer in the dojo.  He'll probably teach his old man something about the new NBA too (Good Luck with that, though, he's as stubborn as a junkyard dog with a bone).  He should wait until Cowens is using a walker before he spars with him, though.  This summer, I'm going on a trip to Portugal with Worcester.  He lives in Florida and I live in the Land of Fruits and Nuts, California, but we're going to rendezvous in Lisbon and go for a little walk (not on the wild side).  I've met TJ when he came to San Francisco for a business meeting.  And Rosalie.  That was a real treat.  Speaking of Sam, not only did I see him when I went back east but we would have dinner together when he came out to one of his favorite cities in the world, San Francisco (a close second to Paris).  Gyso.  NYCelt.  112288.  Bobc.  I better stop before I forget one, but I have met many of our regular posters.

That's the great thing about this board.  Because we do insist upon conviviality it is possible for members to meet in person and feel like we're finally meeting friends face-to-face and not strangers or hostile forces.  

I like your attitude though.  Thanks for stepping up and doing the right thing.  I'm sure, with my roving feet, I'll meet you someday too.  I'm looking forward to it.


bob


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bob your turning into a woman that talks too much, I asked you a specific question, not to find me more stats, surprised one of my favorite posters cannot answer a simple question? Its obvious to me Gobert and Hood would help our teams weaknesses, rim protection and 3 point shooting more than KO and Young and I'm NOT going to quote a bunch of stats to prove it. Your trying to prove we have a good defense without rim protection, did it ever occur to you as good as Smart, AB, Crowder, Turner, Jerebko are defensively that with an elite shot blocker like Gobert, he could make their defense even better and by leaps and bounds? they could swarm and play up on shooters even better, knowing if the offensive player gets by, that you have an active 7'2" center with 7'9" arms waiting to swat/ambush you. I would leave that guy close to the rim to and let the guards switch to stay on the perimeter. We would have the best defense in the league with Gobert right now, do you know how much better he would make Sully? We would also be an elite rebounding team, right now our overachieving defense still has holes, big holes. Another thing, KO's offense is not so strong and consistent that he can come near to carry us, he has a good game and 2 or 3 Jeff Green like games too where his offense is putrid.

I think this team right NOW would be much much better with Gobert and Hood then they are now, despite Goberts offensive limitations. You can win with centers that have limited offense like Perk, Tyson Chandler, Bogut. When Gobert goes to the bench, you could still play all your small ball.

dbrown4 wrote:OK, you two...Sam is still watching!  He would have IM'ed you both by now and put you in timeout.  Now kiss and make up.  Cowens, you still have the best avatar!

db

bobh and I are cool, this is fun even if he refused to answer my question LOL

cowens/oldschool wrote:bob your turning into a woman that talks too much, I asked you a specific question, not to find me more stats, surprised one of my favorite posters cannot answer a simple question? Its obvious to me Gobert and Hood would help our teams weaknesses, rim protection and 3 point shooting more than KO and Young and I'm NOT going to quote a bunch of stats to prove it. Your trying to prove we have a good defense without rim protection, did it ever occur to you as good as Smart, AB, Crowder, Turner, Jerebko are defensively that with an elite shot blocker like Gobert, he could make their defense even better and by leaps and bounds? they could swarm and play up on shooters even better, knowing if the offensive player gets by, that you have an active 7'2" center with 7'9" arms waiting to swat/ambush you. I would leave that guy close to the rim to and let the guards switch to stay on the perimeter. We would have the best defense in the league with Gobert right now, do you know how much better he would make Sully? We would also be an elite rebounding team, right now our overachieving defense still has holes, big holes. Another thing, KO's offense is not so strong and consistent that he can come near to carry us, he has a good game and 2 or 3 Jeff Green like games too where his offense is putrid.

I think this team right NOW would be much much better with Gobert and Hood then they are now, despite Goberts offensive limitations. You can win with centers that have limited offense like Perk, Tyson Chandler, Bogut. When Gobert goes to the bench, you could still play all your small ball.

Cow,

Did it ever occur to you that while our defense might improve with Gobert our offense might tank? Do I need to find you stats before you understand just how bad Gobert is on offense? I love defense as much as the next guy, but you are completely obsessed with it. Utah has the 3rd worst offense in the league. Their starting center has taken about 5% of the team's total fga. He is a non-entity on offense. Has it ever occurred to you that having a center who struggles to score makes it tough to outscore the other team? The name of the game is to score more points than the other guy and if you can do that without having to be anywhere near them, why wouldn't you? You have to play both sides of the ball, Cow, not just defense and Gobert only plays one side.

Or, you need a roster of killers like GSW. Then you can get away with playing 4-on-5 on offense. I was watching a pre-game warm up of GSW. Curry was throwing up 40'ers. He missed the first one, but not by too much. Then he hit the next 2 in a row. When you have a shooter like that you can have your center who doesn't score. Until then, we need every point we can get and we would not be getting anywhere near as many points if Gobert was our center. Now, if Gobert could shoot, even like Zeller, much less like Kelly, then you'd have something special. Unfortunately, Gobert is another Manute Bol. Actually, that's not fair. Manute could shoot 3s. One year he shot 31% from 3.

You'd leave Gobert at the rim and let the guards switch at the perimeter? How about Favors? Does he get to stay down low too? Fine. So you've got a guy, or two, trying not to get an illegal defense technical called because he is down low and isn't guarding anybody, while I have Kelly, Jerebko, Sully, IT and either Bradley or Turner out at the perimeter. That's 3 3pt shooters, 1 who is good from 18'-19' and either another shooter or a penetrator and distributor. You have 3 guards running around like chickens with their heads cut off trying to cover three Bigs perhaps 6" taller than them and at least one more guard (or two) shooting from downrange. That's 3-on-5 you're saying you want to play, and you think you'll have an elite defense? I don't think giving up open jump shots because you don't want to go out to defend them is something Thibs would be advocating. Two of those bigs are shooting over 40% from 3. That's an effective fg% of over 60%. Gobert is shooting 55%. Sorry to throw more stats out at you, but shooting 40% from 3 gets you more points than shooting 55% from anywhere else inside the 3pt arc.

Our defense would be better with Gobert, although I don't know how much better since it's already pretty good, but our offense would be significantly worse.


bob


.

bob I should have been more accurate in my descriptions, I want Gobert taking on all comers in the lane and beyond, not just at the rim, where I don't want him is out at the 3 point line and I don't see Duncan or Bogut there too often either. As we have seen Kelly's offense is not there all nights, so 60-70% of the time hes giving you nothing, ever see how many 2 rebound games he has? At least Gobert will always put out effort on defense, its much more consistent than KO's offense. Utah used to have a starting center with better offense than KO, Kantor, who also was a defensive liability, though not as weak as Kelly, they got rid of Kantor to go with Gobert.

Are you telling me we are better NOW with KO and Young than if we had Gobert and Hood? just lay it out, don't talk hoops like a politician!!!

also wanted to add with our improved defense if we had Gobert, do you know what that would do for our fast break game? all those more missed shots and steals from having a 7'2" rim protector with young legs would actually crank up our offense and running game.....that would be a thing of beauty!!!!

cowens/oldschool wrote:bob I should have been more accurate in my descriptions, I want Gobert taking on all comers in the lane and beyond, not just at the rim, where I don't want him is out at the 3 point line and I don't see Duncan or Bogut there too often either. As we have seen Kelly's offense is not there all nights, so 60-70% of the time hes giving you nothing, ever see how many 2 rebound games he has? At least Gobert will always put out effort on defense, its much more consistent than KO's offense. Utah used to have a starting center with better offense than KO, Kantor, who also was a defensive liability, though not as weak as Kelly, they got rid of Kantor to go with Gobert.

Are you telling me we are better NOW with KO and Young than if we had Gobert and Hood? just lay it out, don't talk hoops like a politician!!!

I think we'd be better with Gobert and Hood than we would be with Zeller and Young.


bob


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