Straight from Sam's Shoulder (SSS)

Celtics Greats' Last "Performance" on the Old Garden Floor

Some of these nostalgia posts got me thinking about the final Celtics game at the "real" Boston Garden and the ceremony they held, involving a large number of Celtics icons. Here's a brief video of it for those who care.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYhR-jhRoSI&feature=related

Sam

Rosalie,

If YOUR age is showing, how do you think that makes ME feel?

Sam

Abandoning What Got Us Here

Over the course of the regular season, the Celtics developed certain patterns in their performance. Some patterns were more positive than others. And the patterns weren't necessarily consistent over the entire season. But, for the most part, among the players currently dressing for games, here are the players the Celtics most relied upon in each of the three major statistical categories (on a per game basis):

Points: Pierce, Ray, KG, Davis, Rondo, Green

Rebounds: KG, Davis, Pierce, Krstic, Jermaine, Ray, Green

Assists: Rondo, Pierce, West, Ray, KG

Just for the heck of it, I compared each player's regular season and playoff stats (on a "per 36 minutes" basis) in each of the categories in which he was depended on during the regular season. I then calculated the percentage by which he's either exceeding or trailing his regular season figure in the playoffs:

In the category of points per 36 minutes:

Rondo: up 64% in the playoffs
Ray: up 15% in the playoffs
Jermaine: up 8% in the playoffs
Pierce: down 17% in the playoffs
Green: down 17% in the playoffs
KG: down 19% in the playoffs
West: down 28% in the playoffs
Davis: down 71% in the playoffs

In the category of rebounds per 36 minutes:

Ray: up 29% in the playoffs
KG: up 16% in the playoffs
Davis: up 13% in the playoffs
Jermaine: down 20% in the playoffs
Green: down 27% in the playoffs
Pierce: down 30% in the playoffs

In the category of assists per 36 minutes:

KG: up 64% in the playoffs
West: down 24% in the playoffs
Pierce: down 24% in the playoffs
Rondo: down 37% in the playoffs

It's important to bear in mind that what these data represent is what's going on when these guys are on the floor. They do not take into consideration the number of minutes being played by a given player.

• In each category, someone unexpected has stepped up most in the playoffs.

• In two categories (Ray in scoring and KG in rebounding), the player most likely to step up ranks second, but at least he has stepped up.

• In the category of assists, Rondo has almost fallen of the charts in terms of would normally be expected of him, and additional playmaking burden appears to have fallen on KG, who has probably scored less than usual in the bargain.

• In terms of scoring, five of the eight "usual suspects" are behind their regular season output, with Glen Davis the most egregious culprit.

• In terms of rebounds, three of the six relatively strongest producers over the regular season have declined during the playoffs.

My main point in making these comparisons is not to point fingers at individuals, because individual playoff stats can change dramatically from game to game. The thing I find most interesting is that, for one reason or another, the Celtics' normal role patterns have been disrupted. The "wrong" guys are leading the categories; and, in terms of assists, the odds-on guy to step up has, in fact, stepped way down.

To some extent, I credit the Knicks coaches for achieving the one disruption that is arguably causing many of the other disruptions. They've turned Rondo into a scorer more than a playmaker. We may all chortle because Rondo's slicing through Knicks like a hot knife through butter. But, in one sense, that fact negatively affects the Celtics in much the same fashion the Lakers are negatively affected when Kobe takes over a game. In both cases, the other players on the floor with either Rondo or Kobe are taken out of their rhythm.

Yes, I realize that, without all those Rondo layups in Game Two, the Celtics would have lost dismally. But I'd rather take my chances with all players filling their most productive roles because I believe the Celtics are a much better team with Rondo as catalyst and the Three Amigos and Glen Davis as primary scorers.

Fortunately, their sheer talent, experience, and clutch heroics have been sufficient to get them over the hump (barely) in both game. But neither game has served to enhance team chemistry. In fact, the need to rely on experience to pull both games out has caused Doc to use his bench as little as possible.

The "Carmelo effect" is underscored dramatically by the fact that the stats of the two guys most responsible for guarding him (Pierce and Green) are down in every single category in which I included them (above). Shadowing this guy obviously requires tremendous exertion.

Obviously, a 2-0 lead is reason for optimism. Based on historical precedent, only a fluke or key injury) would be likely to keep the Celts from taking the series. But I would suggest that winning the series is far less important (long term) than how they win it. In a very important sense, this series is really their final tuneup for the main events that lie ahead.

I believe the key to a championship run could well involve how well they get their chemistry together in the games that lie immediately ahead. If fact (and this may be regarded as heresy), it won't kill me if this series is extended a bit to offer them more opportunity to hone that chemistry.

But, in the long run................Go Celtics!

Sam

Sam

Interesting observations although I am not sure that 2 games provides a reasonable sampling to draw any solid conclusions as you did point out.

I think if you want to get a better feel I would look at the last 20 or so games including the two playoffs games because the things that we are seeing appear to be a carry over from the last quarter of the season.

Rondo's big offensive explosion was needed and it will force NY to make some adjustments. Hell by the 4th qtr they had Carmello checking him. It is good to know that Rondo can and will take over a game when needed but I do not expect him to be anything other than an assist machine.

Tommy said he was a one man fast break because his teamates were not running. That is really the big problem with their offense. It has been taking them too long to get into the offense and then it gives the Knicks a chance to establish their defense.

Although an extended series could help with the chemistry issue (with the rotation) I think they need to end this one fast because the starters are playing too many minutes and the longer the series goes the more chance there is for an injury. With a younger Heat and Bulls teams on the horizon the older players on the Celtics need more rest and more time to recover. I say end it early and often.

It seems to me that the lack of a team fastbreak has less to do with chemistry and perhaps more to do with the fact that the big three no longer have the physical ability to get up and down. One had hoped that Green and West off the bench could bring balance but they are playing at the same speed as everyone else. It is what it is. The bench has to play welll enough or the starters will not make it to the finish line (14 wins to # 18)

dboss

dboss wrote:

...Tommy said he (Rondo) was a one man fast break because his teammates were not running. That is really the big problem with their offense...

...It seems to me that the lack of a team fastbreak has less to do with chemistry and perhaps more to do with the fact that the big three no longer have the physical ability to get up and down. One had hoped that Green and West off the bench could bring balance but they are playing at the same speed as everyone else. It is what it is. The bench has to play welll enough or the starters will not make it to the finish line (14 wins to # 18)

dboss

dboss,

The section of your earlier post I quoted above may be the nucleus for what will be a very important series of decisions the team faces after the season. The Celtics have a star point guard very well suited to running an uptempo offense and few other players who can execute it.

Let's hope it's a discussion we can have back here 14 wins from now.

Regards

Dboss,

Yeah, my head says an extended series could help with the chemistry, but my heart says get it over with and use the extra practices to work on the execution. I have to say, though, that I've never been as concerned about rest as most people are. If I have to listen to the crap about how superior today's uber athletes are to those who played in a much more furious environment and with a much more demanding schedule, then I expect today's uber athletes to exhibit the stamina that is part and parcel of athleticism.

I've been fearing, for some time, that there's something stuck in Rondo's craw that somehow relates to the difference between his strengths and the inability and/or unwillingness of his teammates (especially Paul Pierce) to mesh with those strengths. It could well be that he has finally said to himself, "Screw it. If my teammates are not going to keep up with me, I'm just going to outrun them until either they get the word or I run out of gas."

As NYCelt suggests, I think the prospect of increasing incompatibility between Rondo's strengths and those of the other mainstays of the team will have to be addressed in the near future even if they (hopefully) reach some form of detente in these playoffs.

While it's frequently stated that Green's and West's strengths are better suited to Rondo's strengths, that does no good realistically unless they're all playing on the same unit.

Actually, I don't regard these two games as a sample. In my mind, they're what a statistician might call a tiny universe, because my intention was to focus only on this series and specifically on the Knicks's current approach to playing the Celtics. In my mind, each series represents a separate entity because each opponent takes a different approach against the Celts. And I believe that one of D'Antoni's strategies is to force the Celtics to adopt unfamiliar roles so they're not using their strengths to full advantage. Making Rondo a scorer to the detriment of his distribution skills is a perfect case in point. Making Pierce wear himself out covering Anthony on defense is another.

It was interesting to see Anthony guarding Rondo for a little while, but I found it even more interesting to see Rondo defending Anthony during several possessions near the end of the game. It reminded me of the game in which Rondo was put on Lebron for a stretch. And both Lebron (in the earlier game) and Carmello (in the most recent game) remained almost scoreless during the short time when Rondo was guarding them. It's not something I'd prescribe as a regular occurrence, but the surprise factor can potentially wreak havoc in short bursts.

I know one thing. Carmello sure ain't Kobe when it comes to covering Rondo. And, I like the odds that Pierce will go off if Carmello's on Rondo and a shorter guy is guarding Paul.

This is a major reason why the playoffs are so interesting. Because the two teams in any given series remain constant for up to seven games, which represents (in a quasi-scientific sense) a more consistent frame of reference within which to make game-to-game comparisons.

Go Celtics!

Sam

Sam

I think ny celt has nailed it.

It puts a very interesting twist in the discussion about contrast in styles. Seems that contrast may exist and is having an impact on team chemistry.

Earlier in the season, the Celtics were getting up and down the court. Now they are just another half court offensive team with an occasional burst. Maybe doc can find a way to get Rondo more minutes with Green and West or even Wafer.

Rondo hijacked the offense in game two. It was needed but it is not the best situation for the team.

dboss

Rosalie, I think Doc is reluctant to throw more variables named Wafer and Sasha into a mix that is having chemistry difficulties to begin with. Yes, they have individual abilities, but we need chemistry-builders more than individual talents. Chemistry is best addressed by going to the guys who once had it (proving they can do it) and hope they can recapture it. Taking a chance on other guys who have been pretty much out of the mix, even for five minutes, is a risk because five minutes of basketball can decide the whole game.

The starters of this team will make or break its playoff performance. They have to come together in order for this team to have a chance at the whole thing. There's no alternative, as nearly as I can see. Now, before anyone writes to tell me the bench is also important, of course it is. But, if the performance of the bench is important, then the performance of the starters is IMPORTANT.

Sam

A Game of Major Significance

I think the Celts accomplished several very important things with the win against the Heat in Game 3—BEYOND coming closer to evening up the series.

1. They took the best the Heat could offer and emphatically stunned the Heat with a two-by-four to the forehead in shutting down Miami's momentum.

2. They reestablished a high level of both physical and mental toughness in their game.

3. They dusted off the formula that has brought them success. Make things difficult for the other team on defense; and get scoring from the scorers and playmaking from the playmakers.

4. They played together as a team, recording assists on 73% of their made field goals, committing only 12 turnovers, outrebounding the Heat, recording almost quadruple the transition points of the Heat (18-5), and more than holding their own in points in the paint (42-40).

5. It's safe to say the consensus is that the Celtics have been playing less than inspired basketball, although theories differ as to the nature of the problems. It has almost seemed as though some extraordinary event would be required for the team to move in a more positive direction. Rondo's injury and "resurrection" may ironically prove to be that pivotal factor. Here's hoping he'll be able to suit up and continue to provide inspiration for the team. In a strange sort of way, having to focus on the injury could help to divert his attention from anything else that may have been bothering him. There is a distinct possibility that this game will ultimately turn out to be one of the most significant in the Garnett era.

Hopefully, all of these factors will be the best possible catalyst and motivator in upcoming games.

Well done, and continue to Go Celtics!

Sam

Relieved

Unless I answer a response, this will be my final post on this thread, which was intended to coincide with the season. (The Celtics season is over, for anyone who may not know.)

I awoke this morning expecting to feel the usual reactions after the Celtics have left the race for the championship. After all, I've developed a very strong response pattern during the 72% of the seasons when they haven't been big winners. Skip breakfast. Skip lunch. Skip dinner. Never read a word of any newspaper or listen to/watch any news report on the electronic media. Move on to other demands of life that have been relegated to also ran status for nearly eight months.

But it was immediately apparent that this time was different. Because I had really only one reaction to the Celtics' exit from these playoffs.

I felt relieved!

Of all the 61 seasons I've been an active follower of the Celtics, this one wins the prize for most debilitating. Never before have I experienced so many instances of hopes that have built up only to be dashed. Most of them were health-related.

I've seen many comparisons of this team's plight to that of the '68-'69 Celtics. But, compared with this team, the guys who were old than and are ancient now had it easy:

• The '68-'69 team had lingering injuries, but they mostly played through them so that, by playoff time, the eight rotation players had missed a grand total of only 26 games. This season (and I'm taking into account the reduced number of Celtics games available to the guys who came and went in trades), I calculate roughly 246 games missed by the top nine rotation players.

• Both teams had five players age 30+ on the roster. But somehow it seemed that endurance was more in vogue in the old days. The '68-'69 group had a 34-year-old who averaged 42.7 MPG in the regular season and 46.1 in the playoffs. And they also had a 28-year-old who averaged 47.2 MPG in the playoffs.

The physical and mental wear and tear on those who did play this season seemed dramatic. For about half the season, I was keeping track of the instances of discontinuity. Finally, I got disgusted and threw my calculations away. At the time, about 40% of the games had been played by an active Celtics roster that was somehow different from that of the previous game. Constant role adjustment can be debilitating.

Perhaps the most amazing fact is that the Three Amigos were relatively healthy (save for a few games when we worried about KG's leg but saw him come back strong). But the X factor this season was supposed to involve the strong supporting cast. And, among the supporting players, it seemed there was a constant threat of physical disaster. Marquis gets brushed for what is barely a foul, and his career is now in doubt. We held our collective breaths whenever anyone named O'Neal was on the floor. The final straw, of course, was Rondo trying valiantly to contribute with a dangling left arm and quite possibly risking his career by doing so under the circumstances.

We all hoped and rooted for the team to continue through the playoffs. But, in view of what increasingly seemed to be impending physical doom, I was constantly torn between wanting their playoffs to continue or to come to a merciful halt. Ultimately, the Heat made that decision for them.

And now, I find myself sad but also relieved.

I hope no one interprets what I say as some kind of excuse for their not winning the championship. I'm simply relating my reactions and feelings concerning the outcome. I really have liked this team. I have admired their pluck—especially when they seemed to be telling Father Time to go pluck himself. But I have always thought of the Celtics as humans first and players second. And what they were attempting against overwhelming odds finally seemed to become almost inhuman.

I know they won't all be back. Perhaps we won't even see the Celtics play this coming season, or at least part of it. We have no idea what kind of configuration the lineup will have the next time they take the court in earnest. Will there still be 30 teams when the next season begins? What new restrictions to player signings may be on the horizon? In short, the immediate future is very much unknown.

An off-season full of conjecture has already begun. I'm sure I'll be an interested participant. But, for the present, all I can say is that I'm.....

.....relieved!

Tremendous effort, guys. And happy off-season, everyone.

Sam