Bill Simmons Says Jeff Green for Omer Asik Trade is Good for Both Teams

KJ

I have to agree with you 100% on this.

Think about this for a moment.  Vitor looks to be a guy that can score double digits and probably average around 6-7 rebounds per.  

Asik has had ONE good year where he was a double double guy.  We do not know what his ceiling is but I bet he will never be a great center.  

Asik expects big money.  Vitor is on the cheap.  In terms of value why would you want to trade Green for Asik?  Maybe I am a little too high on Vitor but I think I have seen enough of him to determine that he can play now.

Asik averages 10 PPG.  He shoots horrible from the line, is average on defense and does not pass the ball very well.  He rebounds well but from a value standpoint I will take Victor right now over Asik.  

To me this is a no brainer.

Green is a very good defender and scorer and if we are going to use his preseason activity to determine his worth than we should just forget about his play last year.  It did not happen.  he did not average 20.3  PPG and 5.3 rebounds against the Knicks. His play in the 2nd half of the season did not happen.  He did not put up big numbers during pre-season so let's trade this scrub and get a Asik.

As far as Wallace is concerned he is entering year 14 of his tenure in the NBA.  There is no upside there at all.  I think at this point he is perfectly positioned as a back up SF who as I have suggested before, could be a valuable 6th man.  

The most logical move the Celtics could make now is to move Humphries and his $12 million expiring contract.  We have Bass, Sully and Oylnyk at PF so Hump is expendable.

Why weaken your SF spot?

Ofcourse I would want to get rid of Lee and Bass and Humphries first, but why would Houston/McHale do that? do they really want our junk? Green is a valuable commodity, playing off Harden and Lin and Howard he could be a real force for that team. Maybe Asik and Howard do not play well together? maybe he could be available. I also think Asik's defense is pretty good.

Dboss and KJ,

Asik is signed for this season and next. Plenty of time to evaluate his future as a core player and either trade him or let him walk after next season if it doesn't look as though he's filling the bill. So far, I like the good signs in Vitor's play. But, if Asik has had one good year of double-double play in the NBA, that's one more than Vitor has had. In fact, Vitor hasn't even played an NBA regular season game yet, while Asik has never missed one in his three seasons. I'm afraid Vitor could be a foul machine, at least against good offensive centers such as Lopez. I think people are getting a little more worked up about Vitor's potential than is warranted by his showing against often-subpar opponents in one preseason.

I'd love to see the Celtics use Vitor as a legitimate backup center. I have absolutely no evidence that he shows consistent promise as a starting center against high-caliber NBA competing centers. If both Vitor and Asik become elite centers, then you can do what Houston might by trading one away for a big return.

For a team that has been center-starved for many years now, I'd hate to pass up one of the league's best legitimate center prospects for the future—one who has had three NBA seasons to "ripen" so far.

Nothing's a guarantee. But to match up Asik, who has shown great progress in his possible ascension to elite 5 status, with Green, who has not shown a full season of consistently high promise as an elite 3, simply reinforces my reasoning that you don't bypass the opportunity to grab a stud center when you have the chance.

Sam

For the 5  board member that voted YES.

Would you like to change your vote?

I got one more question for ya.

This year Asik will make $5.2 mill.

Next year he gets $14.9 mill.

Are you willing to trade Jeff Green for a one trick pony (he can rebound) and pay him $14.9 million (2014-15) season?

I voted No before I researched this.  Now that I know the financial obligation I can say Hell no.
Omer Asik $5,225,000 $14,898,938 $0  

dboss

Dboss, I'm not sure where you're getting your stats, but I checked three sources of salary information, including Basketball Reference. All three set Asik's salary at $8,374,646 this season and the same amount ($8,374,646) next season.

Asik's a one-trick pony only if you don't count defending and scoring.

Why on earth would I want to change my vote?

Sam

Sam

I respect your opinion but I really disagree with you about this.

dboss

Asik's 2012-13 stats: 10.1 ppg, 11.7 reb, 1.1 blks, and a 56% FT shooter. For the most part good stats, but his FT shooting alone should eliminate the term "stud" from any description of him. He's a liability late in games with that stat. Shaq was a terrible career FT shooter but he would make up for it with his high scoring and defense. Howard, still lacking some skills on the offensive end which includes FT shooting, is still better than Asik overall considering his offensive production. I'm sorry but 10-11 points a game doesn't justify trading one of your better players for him. He is essentially a role player, not the cornerstone of a franchise.

Like I said before, he is no Roy Hibbert.


KJ

I used hoopshype for my  reference but even at $8 mill Asik is a bum.  But I think my numbers are accurate.  

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2012/07/01/rockets-make-offer-to-asik-bulls-likely-to-match/

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/houston.htm

Averaging 10 PPG in 30MPG is not that good.  Shooting around 50% from the foul line is not that good.  Averaging .09 assist per game is insignificant.

Other than his rebounding numbers there is no evidence that he is anything other than a one trick Pony.

I would expect you to change your vote because paying a guy $15 mill to rebound the basketball is a poor investment particularly when you are giving up Jeff Green.

It circumvents the future of this team.

I think that Jeff Green is going to have great year for us.

That is it for me on this thread...no sense in beating a dead horse.

dboss

cowens/oldschool,

Maybe not Bass and Lee, but Humphries carries a great deal of value as an expiring contract @ $12M.



KJ

Sam, for the youngsters on this site, the center we got for Cliff Hagan was  Bill Russell.

FYi...Arian and I plan to see the Celts play in Orlando in a couple of weeks. Any chance you could join us?

Asik does have a poison pill contract that dboss described.
Sam is correct that for salary cap calculations, his contract was averaged equally over 3 years.

Asik makes sense for many teams but not Boston.
Boston won't be a contender over the next two years.
I wouldn't give up Green for Asik.

In defense of Asik, he is a very good defensive player and a very good rebounder. He never got a real chance behind Joakim Noah. His rebounding numbers per 48 minutes were 2nd in the league last year.

In reality, Green is not a super fit for Houston either.
They need/want a stretch 4.
Green can stretch the court but he is such a poor rebounder to play as a power forward. Boston's other pieces such as Humphries or Bass don't fit the stretch 4 criteria.

If the Rockets decide to play Asik ahead of Greg Smith as their 4, the Simmons idea becomes moot anyway.

Putting that aside, hypothetically, I'd do that deal in a heartbeat.  3s are relatively easy to find right now; 5s are an endangered species.  Wallace looks like a better solution at 3, for at least this season, anyway.  Rondo and Asik on the floor looks more promising than Rondo and Green.  Asik would also allow Olynyk to play to his natural offensive strength further from the basket which might give Kelly more meaningful minutes and our offensively challenged bunch a boost.

dboss wrote:I used hoopshype for my  reference but even at $8 mill Asik is a bum.  But I think my numbers are accurate.  

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2012/07/01/rockets-make-offer-to-asik-bulls-likely-to-match/

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/houston.htm

Averaging 10 PPG in 30MPG is not that good.  Shooting around 50% from the foul line is not that good.  Averaging .09 assist per game is insignificant.

Other than his rebounding numbers there is no evidence that he is anything other than a one trick Pony.

I would expect you to change your vote because paying a guy $15 mill to rebound the basketball is a poor investment particularly when you are giving up Jeff Green.

It circumvents the future of this team.

I think that Jeff Green is going to have great year for us.

That is it for me on this thread...no sense in beating a dead horse.

dboss

dboss,

In this case, hoopshype has got it wrong. The "poison pill" in his contract (and Jeremy Lin's as well) was removed when both free agents signed with Houston. The only way the "poison pill" would have happened is if they signed with their original teams, the Bulls and the Knicks. Gilbert Arenas provision:

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q45

As Sam wrote, Asik's salary (and Lin's) was allowed to be averaged over the total years of his contract. There is NO "poison pill", none whatsoever. Asik's salary, not just his cap number, but his SALARY, is $8,374,646, the same amount for each of his years (3?) under his current contract.

For NBA salaries, use instead:

ShamSports.com

http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/rockets.jsp

HoopsWorld.com

http://www.hoopsworld.com/houston-rockets-team-salary

gyso

KJ,

As for Aski's free throw shooting, I prefer to focus on what he represents, not what he does not represent. Most players are stronger in some areas than others.

My early years in basketball involved following a center who excelled in rebounding and defense and could contribute 10-15 PPG but who was a very sub-par three throw shooter. And the team was able to eke by with him at center for 13 seasons (11 of them resulting in championships). And those teams didn't have a shooting instructor who appears to be as good as the one the Celtics have now.

And just so I won't be thought of as living in the past, I believe the Celtics won a championship in 2007-08 with a center who averaged 24.5 minutes per game, during which he contributed 6.9 points per game, 6.1 rebounds per game, 1.5 block per game, 1.1 assists per game, and 1.6 turnovers per game.

I'm not in any way trying to compare Asik with Bill Russell. But what I'm saying is that there's always a context; and, in this case, the context involves the offensive system the team will be playing in a couple of years and the pieces they need to implement that system smoothly. I hope I've illustrated how the systemic model involving a high-scoring center isn't necessarily the only model that exists. Both Russell and (to a much lesser extent) Perk submitted skills that eased the way for their teammates.

I think that, whatever system they will employ, solid rebounding and defense will be very necessary ingredients for the center position. Scoring can come from many different sources, and a center who "only" scores 10 a game can often pave the way for teammates to maximize their scoring ability. One impact stat in which Perk was never given enough credit involved the picks he set for teammates, although those picks were somewhat mitigated by the number of moving pick fouls he collected.

How good a pick does Asik set? I don't have the answer, but I'm willing to bet he at least touches the opposition when he sets a pick, unlike Vitor, who virtually fakes a pick and then rolls to the hoop. How well does Asik block out under the boards. I don't have a clue to that one either, although his double-figure rebound figures offer some degree of reassurance. And, if he does block out well and attracts opponents' attention in the process, will this open opportunities for his teammates to rebound better? How far back does one have to go to identify a Celtics center who contributed 11.7 rebounds between the offensive (3.4) and defensive (8.3) boards? What would Asik's putback potential add a new dimension to the Celtics' scoring? What might Asik's defensive rebounding add to the ability if his teammates to run semi-wild in the open court?

I believe at least some of the people who wouldn't trade Green for Asik are looking at Jeff's abilities primarily in a vacuum, while I'm trying to evaluate both players based on what they have the potential to influence the performance of the entire team.

Sam

BTW, after watching the video Simmons doesn't appear to be seriously suggesting this trade will happen. He is joking around in his clairvoyant routine saying the trade will happen so that "then the Rockets can have him and be just as frustrated (with him) as I am."

Sam,

Asik's solid, I will give him that, but I'd trade away the extra draft picks, PFs and SGs first. That's where guys need to be moved. I don't think it's wise to rely on Wallace for the full brunt of the load at the 3 spot.

In either case, I would rather see what Green and Vitor can do before entertaining the thought of adding Asik.


KJ


KJ

KJ,

Trade picks have no monetary value with respect to the salary cap. So, you'd be taking on another $8 million in salary without giving up anything of cap value. Unfortunately, it wouldn't work. Under the current circumstances, they would need to trade away player(s) of at least equal value for what they're taking on. Draft picks could be used as an added enhancement. So they could trade away Green plus four first-round draft picks for the same monetary value as Green alone. (Only exaggerating for emphasis concerningt the four draft picks.)

Sam

I am aware of that, I was more thinking along the lines of using those picks with the guys I mentioned to make those deals more appealing.



KJ

Dont we have some kind of trade exception?

KJ,

You're right. That could work, especially if doing business with a rebuilding team.

Sam

swedeinestonia wrote:Dont we have some kind of trade exception?

Boston can't use the majority of trade exception until 7/1/14 because they have a hard cap through 6/30/13.
I believe the exception will only be able to be used on two days, 7/1/14 or 7/2/14.