2014 Draft Lottery Day Thread

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Post by bobheckler Tue May 20, 2014 9:19 am

Might as well as put all of today's goings-on in one place for now.

It certainly has turned out to be quite a special day, here on Celtics Planet.  In around 10 hours from now one set of speculations will end and a whole new round of speculations will begin.  The good news is that the new speculations will at least be based upon some additional information.  Finally, a little more meat on the bones.  We will finally know exactly what our pick will be.

We've all heard about the "Kevin Love being made available" rumors.  Assuming Danny's in hot pursuit (a reasonable assumption) then the way the pingpong balls bounce today make a difference.  If we get a Top 3 pick it will be harder for Danny to include that in the deal since the top 3 picks this year are all considered franchise players for the next 10 years.  If we get a pick lower than 3rd, then Danny's decision becomes easier.

For those of you who listen to "Marketwatch" on NPR, as Kai Ryssdal would say, "and now, let's do the numbers":

http://www.nba.com/celtics/news/sidebar/inside-numbers-draft-lottery-qa


Pick #-----------Odds------------Result?

1......................10.3%...............Joel Embiid.  That's my pick based upon our need for a center.  Unless there's something really bad with his back, this would be hard to pass up or trade.  Every scout, every reporter and every analyst would have to be completely full of s--t to get this SO wrong.  If KG retires (or the year after if he doesn't), bring him back as a big man coach and in 2 years this kid will be a monster.  He has only been playing basketball for 4 years and he's already a high lottery pick.  He's a natural.

1-3...................33.4%...............Joel Embiid, Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker.  Once again, really hard to trade the rights to any of them.

4......................0.0%.................I can't explain it, but the Celtics have NO chance, zero, of picking #4.

5-8...................66.4%...............Grist for the Kevin Love Sweepstakes.  Exum sounds tepid about coming here and we don't need another PF like Julius Randle BUT Randle might be very interesting to Minny since they would be losing a PF.  Given the choice between any of the players 5th and down and one of the top PFs in the league (and still only 25 years old), I'd go for the sure thing.


Pray to your Deity, rub your lucky whatevers, call in some of your karma chips.  Today's the day we need them.



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Post by k_j_88 Tue May 20, 2014 10:18 am

Oh crap, I forgot it was today! Now I have something to look forward to this evening, lol.

1 in 3 odds at the "Draft Three" aren't bad, though not a sure bet.

One thing that aggravates the hell out of me is the prospect that an egregiously, terribly managed team like the 26ers have a shot at landing a top pick. Wouldn't it be poetic justice for them to fall to #4?



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Post by bobheckler Tue May 20, 2014 10:18 am

Pags is wearing a tie given to him by Red back in 2002, when they bought the team, and is bring with him a lucky rooster.  Yeah, that's right, a rooster.


http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4712934/pags-packing-lucky-rooster



2014 Draft Lottery Day Thread Pags-rooster

Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca and the Rooster of Barcelos.


Boston Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca has been inundated with good luck charms and advice since it was announced that he would represent the team on the podium at Tuesday's NBA draft lottery in New York City.

Pagliuca decided almost immediately that he would wear a vintage leprechaun-speckled tie that Red Auerbach gifted him when the new ownership group visited shortly after purchasing the team in 2002. Pagliuca said it's the same tie he wore when the Celtics clinched their 2008 championship with a Game 6 victory over the Lakers.

But Pagliuca is also packing a handcrafted Rooster of Barcelos that arrived recently as a gift from Robert Sherman, the U.S. Ambassador to Portugal. The small figurine, which Pagliuca guessed was maybe 8 inches tall, was painted by Marines guarding the embassy and is a symbol of good luck in Portugal.

"There's a story about a guy traveling in Spain, who is accused of stealing silver and is sentenced to death," explained Pagliuca. "He [told the judge], look, that rooster will jump off your plate if I'm innocent and it did, so they didn't hang him. Later, he went to Barcelos and carved the statue and it became a symbol of good luck."

Pagliuca's rooster will now travel in his briefcase to New York with hopes of bringing good fortune to Boston and reversing its lottery luck. Meanwhile, the NBA helped produce an internet stream for the Marines stationed at the embassy to watch the draft lottery live (a five-hour time difference will make it around 1:30 a.m. in Portugal when Boston learns its fate).

Pagliuca joked his inbox has been overflowing with suggestions from Celtics fans recently. He can't walk down the street without hearing from well-wishers. The other day a box of lucky charms arrived from the Middle East.

"The problem is, everyone thinks we’re going to get the No. 1 pick," said Pagliuca. "We'll need a little good luck when you consider we only have a 10.3 percent chance. But we appreciate the optimism."

The Celtics own a 33.4 percent chance at a top 3 pick, but the odds lean heavy toward emerging with the fifth or sixth selection.

Pagliuca admitted he's a little nervous in advance of Tuesday's drawing, noting, "the hopes and dreams of Celtics Nation are upon us getting the right numbers," but was quick to point out that a deep draft will take some of the sting away if the Celtics fail to vault into the top 3.

He's been reminded by those that have endured the lottery process to simply enjoy the moment. What happens with the ping-pong balls is outside of his control. In fact, it's team president Rich Gotham who will be sequestered in the drawing room an hour before the actual television unveil to watch the live drawing.

Pagliuca will serve as the face of the Celtics and laughs when told how Celtics fans still recall Tommy Heinsohn's less-than-enthralled reaction when Boston learned it landed the fifth pick -- the worst possible scenario -- in the 2007 draft lottery.

"I think it's just an honor to be part of experience," said Pagliuca. "I will be a gracious person if it doesn’t go our way. There's always a silver lining. The lottery didn't go our way in 2007, but that pick helped us get Ray Allen, then [Kevin Garnett] through trade, and we won a championship. And this one is stronger, it's a deeper draft than that time. The silver lining will be that we simply move on to Plan B."



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Post by gyso Tue May 20, 2014 10:22 am

2014 NBA lottery is 100 percent fixed (LOL):

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/20/2014-nba-lottery-is-100-percent-fixed/?ocid=Yahoo&partner=ya5nbcs

Dan Feldman, NBCSports.com wrote:
Adam Silver’s NBA is no better than David Stern’s. The lottery is still fixed.

If you want to see the lottery odds the league is pitching, take a look. But I have the real odds – and proof of the conspiracy.

Two years ago – before the lottery – I wrote:


The NBA no longer owns the Hornets, but is still committed to keeping them in New Orleans. With their arena improvements needing approval of the state legislature in July, the Hornets could ride the Anthony Davis buzz and ensure there are no hitches. The league spent a year-and-a-half trying to sell the team without finding a buyer, so maybe Tom Benson needed a No. 1 pick thrown in the deal. David Stern has also meddled in the Hornets’ business before, in the Chris Paul trade. Davis would help Eric Gordon, and therefore Stern’s reputation, because Stern was the one who handpicked Gordon for the Hornets rather than taking the Lakers’ offer.

Of course, the Hornets got the No. 1 pick. It was so obvious.

And then last year, again before the lottery:


Stern desperately wants to create a Cavaliers-Heat rivalry to boost rankings, and to do so, he must make the Cavaliers better. Dan Gilbert remained loyal during the lockout, and especially after LeBron became the worst example of players seizing control from teams, Stern will reward Gilbert with a second No. 1 pick.

Yup, Cleveland got the No. 1 pick. Saw that coming.

Isn’t it always convenient how the most-obvious team wins the lottery? That happening proves it’s fixed. If it were truly random, a team other than the one you know the league wants to win would at least sometimes get the No. 1 pick. But that literally never happens.

Here are the true lottery odds:

Milwaukee Bucks

Odds of winning the lottery: 25 percent 100 percent

Wesley Edens and Marc Lasry just bought the Bucks, and they were determined to complete the sale before the lottery. Suspicious timing. Obviously, the NBA offered the No. 1 pick to grease the wheels. There’s no other explanation why a team Forbes valued at $405 million sold for $550 million. Milwaukee is worth that – only with a No. 1 pick thrown in.

Philadelphia 76ers

Odds of winning the lottery: 19.9 percent 100 percent

Last year, 76ers president Rod Thorn became the NBA’s president of basketball operations. He’ll reward his former employers with the No. 1 pick. Even if Thorn wanted to take the high road, the 76ers really forced the league’s hand here. By tanking, their attendance fell 2,848 fans per game from last season – by far the biggest drop in the NBA. The league can’t afford to have such dismal numbers in such a large market, so it will expedite Philadelphia’s rebuild.

Orlando Magic  

Odds of winning the lottery: 15.6 percent 100 percent

Cleveland lost LeBron James and then got the No. 1 pick. New Orleans lost Chris Paul and then got the No. 1 pick. Orlando lost Dwight Howard and then… Cleveland got the No. 1 pick. OK, I guess LeBron was worth two compensatory No. 1s. But now that the Magic deferred a year, they’ll get the top pick. The NBA doesn’t let teams suffer too much after losing a superstar, and Orlando has paid its dues.

Utah Jazz

Odds of winning the lottery: 10.4 percent 100 percent

Though Andrew Wiggins is still the likely No. 1 pick, don’t rule out Jabari Parker. He’s more polished, and that could give him the edge in many statistical models teams use. So, the NBA will give the Jazz the top pick to ensure they get Parker. A Mormon star in Utah would have HUGE marketing potential. Parker could be bigger than Malone.

Boston Celtics

Odds of winning the lottery: 10.3 percent 100 percent

The Celtics are a flagship franchise, and they play in the Northeast, an area the NBA is biased toward. The last time Boston floundered, Kevin Garnett was conveniently sent there by former Celtic Kevin McHale. The Celtics have moles all over the the league. They’re leaning on their connections – established over years of excellent and money-making play – to get a No. 1 pick. The Boston market is too valuable to the NBA to allow another season like the last.

Los Angeles Lakers

Odds of winning the lottery: 6.3 percent 100 percent

Los Angeles is the biggest market in the lottery, and the NBA wants to keep putting the Lakers on national television. The league can’t do that as long as they remain this bad. The No. 1 pick would turn the Lakers back into marketing giants and bring streams and streams of revenue to the NBA. Did I mention money? Money, so much money. This No. 1 pick, in Los Angeles, could swing billions.

Sacramento Kings

Odds of winning the lottery: 4.3 percent 100 percent

The Sacramento City Council will meet at 6 p.m. locally vote on whether to fund the Kings’ new arena – essentially immediately after the lottery results are televised (show begins at 5 p.m. in California). The implication is clear: Give us the No. 1 pick, or we vote no. Now that the Sacramento City Councilors have made their demands, will the NBA acquiesce? Yes, yes it will.

Detroit Pistons

Odds of winning the lottery: 2.8 percent 100 percent

Andre Drummond has developed a cult following of fans, and the NBA sees potential. With Stan Van Gundy helping him to refine his game, all Drummond needs is another star. Then, the Pistons are set, and the league can market Drummond – who’s young, charismatic and exciting – both locally and nationally. The Pistons’ attendance is highly volatile, swinging based on the team’s quality. Across the country, people will be drawn to Drummond – as long as he plays for a winner.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Odds of winning the lottery: 1.7 percent 100 percent

I don’t know what Dan Gilbert is blackmailing the NBA with, but it sure works. Two No. 1 picks in three years is unprecedented in the current weight setup. Gilbert tried showing restraint on his golden goose, exercising his ability to get a top pick only every other year. But now, the Cavaliers owner is getting desperate. He traded for Luol Deng and Spencer Hawes and still couldn’t make the playoffs, and Anthony Bennett sure deserves a mulligan. Gilbert will cash in again.

Denver Nuggets

Odds of winning the lottery: 1.5 percent 100 percent

Nuggets owner Stan Kroenke also owns the St. Louis Rams, who just drafted Michael Sam, the NFL’s first openly gay player. In the wake of the Donald Sterling scandal, the NBA wants to draw attention to its most tolerant owners – even if their most-notable acts came in another sport. Denver getting the No. 1 pick will put the spotlight on Kroenke and his open-mindedness at a time the league really needs people like him at the forefront.

New Orleans Pelicans

Odds of winning the lottery: 1.1 percent 100 percent

The team formerly owned by the NBA will definitely get the No. 1 pick. The league took over the franchise just to keep it in New Orleans, a point of pride after Hurricane Katrina. But the Pelicans still rank in the bottom third of the league in attendance. Anthony Davis has certainly helped. One more No. 1 pick will really get New Orleans over the hump.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Odds of winning the lottery: 0.6 percent 100 percent

The NBA owners held a lockout with a goal of breaking up the Miami’s Big Three. Not only do the other owners not want super teams to be sustainable, they want to prevent them from forming by keeping their own stars – and they geared the rules toward that. They’ll gear the lottery toward that too, giving Minnesota the No. 1 pick and a much better chance of keeping Kevin Love.

Phoenix Suns

Odds of winning the lottery: 0.5 percent 100 percent

The Suns were the only lottery team competing hard until the end of the season, and Silver will reward that. The new commissioner has shown a willingness to overhaul the draft system, moving toward a setup that no longer encourages failure. He’s on record as interested in a play-in model for the final playoff spots, too – something that really would have helped Phoenix this season. But those type of big-picture fixes take time to implement. For now, Silver can just give the Suns the No. 1 pick as an end-around to achieving the outcome he believes should occur. It’s like a team getting the ball when touching it last going out of bounds following an uncalled foul on the opponent – and we know that’s approved in Silver’s NBA.

Commit these to memory now, or if you forget, check back after the lottery to see why it was rigged. After tonight, you only need to remember one of these outcomes – but then remember it forever and let all the sheeple know the truth.

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Post by bobheckler Tue May 20, 2014 10:39 am

gyso wrote:2014 NBA lottery is 100 percent fixed (LOL):

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/20/2014-nba-lottery-is-100-percent-fixed/?ocid=Yahoo&partner=ya5nbcs

Dan Feldman, NBCSports.com wrote:
Adam Silver’s NBA is no better than David Stern’s. The lottery is still fixed.

If you want to see the lottery odds the league is pitching, take a look. But I have the real odds – and proof of the conspiracy.

Two years ago – before the lottery – I wrote:


The NBA no longer owns the Hornets, but is still committed to keeping them in New Orleans. With their arena improvements needing approval of the state legislature in July, the Hornets could ride the Anthony Davis buzz and ensure there are no hitches. The league spent a year-and-a-half trying to sell the team without finding a buyer, so maybe Tom Benson needed a No. 1 pick thrown in the deal. David Stern has also meddled in the Hornets’ business before, in the Chris Paul trade. Davis would help Eric Gordon, and therefore Stern’s reputation, because Stern was the one who handpicked Gordon for the Hornets rather than taking the Lakers’ offer.

Of course, the Hornets got the No. 1 pick. It was so obvious.

And then last year, again before the lottery:


Stern desperately wants to create a Cavaliers-Heat rivalry to boost rankings, and to do so, he must make the Cavaliers better. Dan Gilbert remained loyal during the lockout, and especially after LeBron became the worst example of players seizing control from teams, Stern will reward Gilbert with a second No. 1 pick.

Yup, Cleveland got the No. 1 pick. Saw that coming.

Isn’t it always convenient how the most-obvious team wins the lottery? That happening proves it’s fixed. If it were truly random, a team other than the one you know the league wants to win would at least sometimes get the No. 1 pick. But that literally never happens.

Here are the true lottery odds:

Milwaukee Bucks

Odds of winning the lottery: 25 percent 100 percent

Wesley Edens and Marc Lasry just bought the Bucks, and they were determined to complete the sale before the lottery. Suspicious timing. Obviously, the NBA offered the No. 1 pick to grease the wheels. There’s no other explanation why a team Forbes valued at $405 million sold for $550 million. Milwaukee is worth that – only with a No. 1 pick thrown in.

Philadelphia 76ers

Odds of winning the lottery: 19.9 percent 100 percent

Last year, 76ers president Rod Thorn became the NBA’s president of basketball operations. He’ll reward his former employers with the No. 1 pick. Even if Thorn wanted to take the high road, the 76ers really forced the league’s hand here. By tanking, their attendance fell 2,848 fans per game from last season – by far the biggest drop in the NBA. The league can’t afford to have such dismal numbers in such a large market, so it will expedite Philadelphia’s rebuild.

Orlando Magic  

Odds of winning the lottery: 15.6 percent 100 percent

Cleveland lost LeBron James and then got the No. 1 pick. New Orleans lost Chris Paul and then got the No. 1 pick. Orlando lost Dwight Howard and then… Cleveland got the No. 1 pick. OK, I guess LeBron was worth two compensatory No. 1s. But now that the Magic deferred a year, they’ll get the top pick. The NBA doesn’t let teams suffer too much after losing a superstar, and Orlando has paid its dues.

Utah Jazz

Odds of winning the lottery: 10.4 percent 100 percent

Though Andrew Wiggins is still the likely No. 1 pick, don’t rule out Jabari Parker. He’s more polished, and that could give him the edge in many statistical models teams use. So, the NBA will give the Jazz the top pick to ensure they get Parker. A Mormon star in Utah would have HUGE marketing potential. Parker could be bigger than Malone.

Boston Celtics

Odds of winning the lottery: 10.3 percent 100 percent

The Celtics are a flagship franchise, and they play in the Northeast, an area the NBA is biased toward. The last time Boston floundered, Kevin Garnett was conveniently sent there by former Celtic Kevin McHale. The Celtics have moles all over the the league. They’re leaning on their connections – established over years of excellent and money-making play – to get a No. 1 pick. The Boston market is too valuable to the NBA to allow another season like the last.

Los Angeles Lakers

Odds of winning the lottery: 6.3 percent 100 percent

Los Angeles is the biggest market in the lottery, and the NBA wants to keep putting the Lakers on national television. The league can’t do that as long as they remain this bad. The No. 1 pick would turn the Lakers back into marketing giants and bring streams and streams of revenue to the NBA. Did I mention money? Money, so much money. This No. 1 pick, in Los Angeles, could swing billions.

Sacramento Kings

Odds of winning the lottery: 4.3 percent 100 percent

The Sacramento City Council will meet at 6 p.m. locally vote on whether to fund the Kings’ new arena – essentially immediately after the lottery results are televised (show begins at 5 p.m. in California). The implication is clear: Give us the No. 1 pick, or we vote no. Now that the Sacramento City Councilors have made their demands, will the NBA acquiesce? Yes, yes it will.

Detroit Pistons

Odds of winning the lottery: 2.8 percent 100 percent

Andre Drummond has developed a cult following of fans, and the NBA sees potential. With Stan Van Gundy helping him to refine his game, all Drummond needs is another star. Then, the Pistons are set, and the league can market Drummond – who’s young, charismatic and exciting – both locally and nationally. The Pistons’ attendance is highly volatile, swinging based on the team’s quality. Across the country, people will be drawn to Drummond – as long as he plays for a winner.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Odds of winning the lottery: 1.7 percent 100 percent

I don’t know what Dan Gilbert is blackmailing the NBA with, but it sure works. Two No. 1 picks in three years is unprecedented in the current weight setup. Gilbert tried showing restraint on his golden goose, exercising his ability to get a top pick only every other year. But now, the Cavaliers owner is getting desperate. He traded for Luol Deng and Spencer Hawes and still couldn’t make the playoffs, and Anthony Bennett sure deserves a mulligan. Gilbert will cash in again.

Denver Nuggets

Odds of winning the lottery: 1.5 percent 100 percent

Nuggets owner Stan Kroenke also owns the St. Louis Rams, who just drafted Michael Sam, the NFL’s first openly gay player. In the wake of the Donald Sterling scandal, the NBA wants to draw attention to its most tolerant owners – even if their most-notable acts came in another sport. Denver getting the No. 1 pick will put the spotlight on Kroenke and his open-mindedness at a time the league really needs people like him at the forefront.

New Orleans Pelicans

Odds of winning the lottery: 1.1 percent 100 percent

The team formerly owned by the NBA will definitely get the No. 1 pick. The league took over the franchise just to keep it in New Orleans, a point of pride after Hurricane Katrina. But the Pelicans still rank in the bottom third of the league in attendance. Anthony Davis has certainly helped. One more No. 1 pick will really get New Orleans over the hump.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Odds of winning the lottery: 0.6 percent 100 percent

The NBA owners held a lockout with a goal of breaking up the Miami’s Big Three. Not only do the other owners not want super teams to be sustainable, they want to prevent them from forming by keeping their own stars – and they geared the rules toward that. They’ll gear the lottery toward that too, giving Minnesota the No. 1 pick and a much better chance of keeping Kevin Love.

Phoenix Suns

Odds of winning the lottery: 0.5 percent 100 percent

The Suns were the only lottery team competing hard until the end of the season, and Silver will reward that. The new commissioner has shown a willingness to overhaul the draft system, moving toward a setup that no longer encourages failure. He’s on record as interested in a play-in model for the final playoff spots, too – something that really would have helped Phoenix this season. But those type of big-picture fixes take time to implement. For now, Silver can just give the Suns the No. 1 pick as an end-around to achieving the outcome he believes should occur. It’s like a team getting the ball when touching it last going out of bounds following an uncalled foul on the opponent – and we know that’s approved in Silver’s NBA.

Commit these to memory now, or if you forget, check back after the lottery to see why it was rigged. After tonight, you only need to remember one of these outcomes – but then remember it forever and let all the sheeple know the truth.




gyso,


So, the fix is in for every team in the lottery, huh? Makes it easy to prove yourself right, doesn't it? No matter who wins, he says "I told you so!". Then again, if he's right about the one who wins the lottery then he's wrong about the fix being in for other 11.

They make a big deal about Ernst & Young being involved. I wonder exactly what the level and amount of interaction of their involvement is. Are they the ones who pull out the pingpong balls, or are they the ones who are in charge of obtaining the balls and making sure they are in the barrell/hopper in the correct ratios or...?

I wish the league would televise the actual drawing rather than the "made for prime time" show that we'll see. The actual pingpong ball pulling will be attended by Celtic President Rich Gotham before the show we will see at 8pm EDT. Pags is just there for show afterwards.


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Post by bobheckler Tue May 20, 2014 10:46 am

http://espn.go.com/boston/nba/story/_/id/10956274/boston-celtics-hoping-lucky-bounce-draft-lottery


Celtics hope for change in fortune
Updated: May 19, 2014, 10:55 PM ET
By Chris Forsberg | ESPNBoston.com


It seems undue to suggest that a team with 17 championship banners hanging from its rafters is unlucky. Sure, the Boston Celtics haven't had much good fortune when it comes to the NBA's draft lottery, but the franchise is far from snakebit.

And yet a fan base already longing for the sweet taste of competitiveness after just one rebuilding season will clutch its collective rabbit's feet, shamrocks and any other green-tinged good-luck charms it can find when the NBA finalizes the 2014 draft order on Tuesday night in New York City.

2014 Draft Lottery Day Thread Bos_g_silvts_300x200
Jennifer Pottheiser/NBAE/Getty Images
Adam Silver's revealing the Celtics as the No. 5 pick in 2007 was the worst-case scenario. Will they fare better this year?


When the pingpong balls are drawn to determine the draft positions, the Celtics will own a 10.3 percent chance at the No. 1 selection and a 33.4 percent shot at a top-three pick. The odds lean heavier toward Boston's walking away with the fifth or sixth pick in this year's draft.

The lottery draw will occur before tipoff of Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers, a series that ought to make Boston wistful after three visits to that round since its last lottery appearance seven years ago.

And it's somewhat ironic that this year's Western Conference final features the Spurs' Tim Duncan and Thunder's Kevin Durant, the two players whom Boston missed out on when the pingpong balls defied them during the 1997 and 2007 lotteries.

This time around, it's fair to suggest that those in the Celtics organization are cautiously optimistic about their chances. Since the odds are not as heavily in the team's favor this time around, vaulting to a top spot would be a sweet victory, but defeat would not pack quite the same stomach punch as previous lottery failings.

Oh, it'll still hurt. Vaulting in the draft is a rare chance to jump on the rebuilding accelerator.

But the Celtics take pride in the fact that they are not at the mercy of the draft lottery. And maybe that's why Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge snickers when asked if he'll have any lucky charms in hand when the envelopes are opened.

"No. I believe what's going to happen will happen," Ainge said. "And we're prepared for whatever happens."

The Celtics weren't nearly as prepared for a disaster scenario back in 1997 after M.L. Carr's squad endured a 15-67 campaign and entered the lottery with a league-best 27.5 percent chance at the top pick. What's more, Boston had a second lottery ticket, the sixth position via a trade with Dallas, that gave it an additional 8.8 percent chance at the top spot.

But visions of Tim Duncan and Rick Pitino leading the team into a new era were dashed when San Antonio vaulted over Boston, with Spurs owner Peter Holt delivering an emphatic fist pump in celebration. The Celtics walked away with picks No. 3 (Chauncey Billups) and 6 (Ron Mercer), and the "backcourt of the future" lasted a mere 51 games before Billups was dealt to Toronto. It would be five more years before Boston returned to the playoffs, and Pitino already had departed after posting a 102-146 record over three-plus seasons.

A decade after the Duncan disaster, following a 58-loss season that included a franchise-record 18-game losing streak, the Celtics arrived at the 2007 lottery with a 19.9 percent chance at a top pick (only Memphis had better odds). Greg Oden and Durant were the prize and consolation, but the worst-case scenario played out for the Celtics, with three teams vaulting past them and pushing Boston to No. 5

The image of a bemused Tommy Heinsohn has become the lasting one for Boston's lottery fortunes. Team co-owner Wyc Grousbeck had worn his lucky suit to watch the pingpong draw behind the scenes but could only shake his head as his team's draft fate was sealed an hour before the public unveil.

Everything worked out just fine, of course. The Celtics traded the No. 5 pick to Seattle as part of a deal for Ray Allen, and that paved the way for acquiring Kevin Garnett. Boston went on to raise Banner 17 in the season that followed, something that almost certainly wouldn't have happened that quickly with a lottery pick, even one with MVP-to-be talent such as Durant.

Of course, as Durant emerges as MVP this season, you can't help but wonder what could have been. And Duncan's four championship rings don't make those draft night woes any easier to stomach.

The Celtics will send some fresh faces this season hoping to reverse their lottery fortunes. Co-owner Steve Pagliuca will be the face of the franchise on the television broadcast, while team president Rich Gotham will be behind the scenes watching the pingpong draw.

The team's brain trust, including Ainge and his staff, and Celtics coach Brad Stevens, will watch from afar. We know by now that Stevens will be unemotional regardless of how the pingpong balls tumble down, but the entire organization is confident in the event of another worst-case scenario.

"We have a huge amount faith in Danny," Pagliuca said. "The winning of an NBA championship is a process, one that includes trades, draft picks, free agents, the right mix of players. Danny's proven he can find the right guys.

"And look at where he finds them: Al Jefferson at No. 15; Tony Allen at No. 25; Kendrick Perkins at No. 27; Delonte West at No. 24. Look at where he's typically picked and how well those players have turned out. We have a lot of faith he'll bring us the right guys wherever we pick."

Yes, in the NBA, it helps to be lucky. But even a team with a leprechaun for a mascot knows that sometimes you make your own luck.




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Post by bobheckler Tue May 20, 2014 10:56 am

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4712943/w2w4-cs-at-2014-draft-lottery



W2W4: C's at 2014 Draft Lottery
May, 20, 2014
MAY 20 8:00 AM ET
By Chris Forsberg | ESPNBoston.com



The Boston Celtics will hope to vault to a top-3 selection during Tuesday night's draft lottery. Boston owns two first-round picks, including No. 17 via last summer's blockbuster swap with the Brooklyn Nets, and now they'll find out where their own pick will be slotted when the league draws pingpong balls to determine the top spots. Here's a look back at Boston's lottery history and what to watch for tonight:

THE NITTY GRITTY

What? 2014 NBA Draft lottery
When? Tuesday, May 20, 8 p.m. (ESPN)
Where? Times Square in New York
Why? Seeding the 14 lottery teams

The Celtics finished the 2013-14 season tied with the Utah Jazz for the fourth worst record in basketball at 25-57 overall. A random drawing gave Utah a valuable tiebreaker, but the two teams essentially split their available lottery chances with Utah owning a slight odds edge. Boston will have 103 of the 1,000 available pingpong ball combinations while hunting for a top-3 spot, but the fifth and sixth spots remain the most likely landing positions.

Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca will represent the team on stage during ESPN's live broadcast of the results, while team president Rich Gotham will be stationed behind-the-scenes to watch the pingpong ball draw earlier in the evening.

HOW DOES THIS THING WORK?

Fourteen pingpong balls, numbered 1-14, are placed in a hopper with the potential for 1,001 different four-ball draws. Each team is assigned a certain number of combinations based on their final record. At least three four-number combinations will be drawn, slotting teams with picks No. 1-3 in this year's draft. In the event that a team has one of its combinations drawn multiple times, the numbers are simply reshuffled and drawn again until three different teams have been determined.

Celtics assistant general manager Mike Zarren revealed the team's 103 four-number combinations earlier this month. The Celtics will be hoping a 4 or 5 is the first number drawn in order to put together their combinations.

Teams are slotted in inverse order of record following the determination of the top-3 spots.

THE ODDS

Here's a look at the Celtics' probability of landing each possible position:

1: 10.3 percent
2: 11.1
3: 12.0
4: 0.0
5: 23.7
6: 34.2
7: 8.2
8: 0.3

LOTTERY WINNERS

From our friends at ESPN Stats and Info: Since the lottery moved to its present format in 1994, the team with (or tied for) the best odds has won only three of the 20 lotteries -- Philadelphia in 1996 (selected Allen Iverson); Cleveland in 2003 (selected LeBron James); and Orlando in 2004 (picked Dwight Howard).

So who wins the lottery? Past history suggests the third-worst and fifth-worst records in the league have been most likely to vault (four times each). No team with the 10th-14th-best odds has ever won the lottery.

Teams with the sixth best odds, like the Celtics on Tuesday, have vaulted to No. 1 twice, the last being Portland during the 2007 draft. For Boston, this is their 12th lottery appearance and the team has never owned a No. 1 pick in the common draft era (since 1966).

BOSTON'S LOTTERY HISTORY

A look at the 11 players Boston has selected via the draft lottery:

2007: Jeff Green* (5)
2006: Randy Foye** (7)
2001: Joe Johnson (10), Kedrick Brown (11, via Denver)
2000: Jerome Moiso (11)
1998: Paul Pierce (9)
1997: Chauncey Billups (3), Ron Mercer (6 via Dallas)
1996: Antoine Walker (6, via Dallas)
1994: Eric Montross (9)
1986: Len Bias (2, via Seattle)

* Selected for Seattle as part of Ray Allen Trade
** Selected for Minnesota as part of deal to acquire Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, and a 2008 second-round pick (Trent Plaisted) in exchange for Foye, Dan Dickau, and Raef LaFrentz

THIS DRAFT AND BEYOND

A look at all of Boston's draft picks over the next five drafts:

2014 Draft
1st round: Boston, Brooklyn (17)
2nd round: None

2015 Draft
1st round: Boston, Clippers, Philadelphia*
2nd round: Boston, Philadelphia**, Sacramento***
* Philadelphia's pick is lottery protected
** Philadelphia conveys if in lottery in 2014 and 2015
*** Only conveyed if between picks 56-60

2016 Draft
1st round: Boston, Brooklyn
2nd round: Miami, Philadelphia*
* Philadelphia conveys if in lottery in 2014 and 2015

2017 Draft
1st round: Boston*
2nd round: Boston**, Sacramento***
* Boston has option to swap with Brooklyn
** If Boston swaps with Brooklyn, it loses pick if between 46-60
*** Only conveyed if between picks 56-60

2018 Draft
1st round: Boston, Brooklyn
2nd round: Boston



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Post by kdp59 Tue May 20, 2014 12:27 pm

we'll get the lowest pick we possibly can....there, thats my prediction.


call me jaded.
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Post by NYCelt Tue May 20, 2014 12:40 pm

34% chance we pick #6.

At least this year we should still get a pretty decent player at that spot, with a consolation prize that should be able to stick with us later in the first round. Either would have some trade value too.
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Post by KyleCleric Tue May 20, 2014 5:55 pm

Marketplace is my favorite part of my commute up 128.

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Post by bobheckler Tue May 20, 2014 5:55 pm

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nba-draft-lottery-karma-rankings/


MAY 20, 2014
by BILL SIMMONS


The NBA Draft Lottery Karma Rankings




Here are your odds for tonight’s NBA draft lottery …

TEAM---------------CHANCE FOR NO. 1 PICK--------CHANCE FOR TOP 3 PICK
Milwaukee-----------25.0%--------------------------64.2%
Philadelphia----------19.9%--------------------------55.8%
Orlando--------------15.6%--------------------------46.9%
Utah-----------------10.4%--------------------------33.7%
Boston---------------10.3%--------------------------33.4%
L.A. Lakers------------6.3%--------------------------21.5%
Sacramento-----------4.3%-------------------------15.0%
Detroit----------------2.8%---------------------------9.9%
Cleveland--------------1.7%--------------------------6.1%
New Orleans-----------1.1%--------------------------4.0%
Denver (via N.Y.)------0.8%--------------------------2.9%
Orlando (via Denver)---0.7%-------------------------2.5%
Minnesota-------------0.6%---------------------------2.2%
Phoenix----------------0.5%---------------------------1.8%


Technicality No. 1: Denver gets the higher pick in the Denver-Orlando–New York scenario; Orlando gets the lower pick; and New York gets nothing because God hates the Knicks.

Technicality No. 2: If anyone leapfrogs Detroit and the Pistons drop to no. 9 or lower, Charlotte gets that pick (so somebody needs to flag down MJ on the ninth hole and tell him he might win a lottery pick tonight).

Technicality No. 3: New Orleans only keeps its pick if it lands in the top three. Otherwise, Philly gets it thanks to the Jrue Holiday hijacking. Er, trade.

Got it? Are we good?

One more important note: Joel Embiid is going to be the first pick of the 2014 draft. Don’t let anyone tell you differently. These teams are full of it. We’re worried about his back, we’re hearing it’s bad … Hold on, I’m actually going to stand under the bull as he craps on me. It’s Smokescreen Central right now. And enough with the Oden parallels; unless Embiid’s pre-draft MRI reveals a career-threatening back issue (doubtful), NOBODY is passing on a franchise center who could easily be described as “The 7-Foot Serge Ibaka.” Stop it. He’s going first. We’re officially calling tonight’s lottery “Bleed for Embiid.”

With that stuff out of the way, let’s focus on the percentages that really matter — the 2014 Lottery Karma Rankings! It’s not about what the Ping-Pong balls say, it’s about what the Karma Gods say.

Do your boys REALLY deserve to win the lottery? Did they handle their business the right way last season? Did they embarrass themselves with a tanking fiasco? Did they make a shady trade that inadvertently affected the playoff race? Did they do anything that made you say, “They just took a poop on their fans”? Have they been so inept for so many years that their ineptitude just shouldn’t be rewarded anymore? Did they make any aggressively stupid decisions like paying Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings $78 million combined without hiring them a strong coach, or gift-wrapping a $48.5 million extension to an injured and possibly washed-up Kobe Bryant without making sure he could still play basketball three times a week? Are they owned by someone you’d describe as “an incompetent legacy kid who’d be working in a grocery store if his dad weren’t rich” or even “possibly concussed, he should seriously get his head checked out”?

And on the flip side, are they doing everything the right way? Do they have a real plan? Did they make an honest attempt to make the playoffs? Could you describe them as “exceedingly well run” and/or “just a solid, solid organization”? Did they make one or more trades that could be described as “genuinely smart” or even “stunning in its vision and scope”? Are they a franchise that makes you say, “If Embiid/Wiggins/Jabari ends up there, they’ll take care of that guy”? Have they had bad lottery luck in the past? Are they due for a lottery break? Should the Karma Gods be saying, “We feel bad, we gotta hook those guys up”?

Without further ado, the 2014 Bleed For Embiid Lottery Karma Rankings …

No Karma Whatsoever

13. Cleveland Cavaliers
I can’t decide what makes them more ineligible for karma — would you go with “two no. 1 overall picks and two other top-four picks just in the past three years, but they batted 25 percent,” or would you go with “rehired the same shaky coach they already fired, gave him a five-year deal, then fired him again after Year 1”? When Obama appoints me the Czar of Sports, I’m making this rule: “No NBA team can win the lottery two times in a 10-year span.” Much less three. It’s too bad Brick Tamland isn’t a real person, because the Cavs definitely would have hired him as their coach/GM.

12. Minnesota Timberwolves
Just for screwing up Kevin Love’s contract and letting him leave after three years (instead of locking him down for five), they’re out. Also not helping: Did you know this is ‘Sota’s 10th straight lottery? Ten straight??? From 2006 through 2011, the Timberwolves had SEVEN picks ranging between no. 2 and no. 7. They’re the real-life equivalent of your college buddy who had three kids way too early in life and now uses your fantasy football draft as an excuse to get bombed because he got out of the house for four hours.

11. Sacramento Kings
Headed for their eighth straight lottery and their sixth straight top-seven pick (unless someone leapfrogs them). I’m an NBA Republican — I don’t think we should use the lottery, year after year, to keep propping up incompetent teams. It’s a broken system. We need a “Make eight straight lotteries and you’re ineligible from getting a top-three pick” rule. Also, I still haven’t forgiven Kings owner Vivek Ranadivé from trying to steal my Entertaining As Hell Tournament idea. Let’s hope he’s not the Carlos Mencia of NBA owners.

10. Philadelphia 76ers
Put it this way: I wrote an entire column about them last March called “10 Steps to Tanking Perfection.” The Karma Gods can’t reward anyone who lost 26 straight, much less anyone who turned Michael Carter-Williams into a stat-chasing, brick-laying, award-pursuing mess who learned that it’s OK to lose as long as you throw up an 18-7-7. Even if you can’t blame Philly for taking advantage of a broken system, that doesn’t mean the Lottery Karma Gods can’t scream at them in their Soup Nazi voice, “NO KARMA FOR YOU!”

9. Orlando Magic
Come on, they already won the lottery three times! And three good ones, too: Shaq, C-Webb and Dwight. I think we’re good, Orlando.

Just for fun, here’s your lifetime NBA Lottery Winner Scoreboard: Cavaliers (4); Clippers (3); Magic (3); Bucks (2); Bulls (2); Hornets (2); Nets (2); Spurs (2); Wizards (2); 76ers (1); Blazers (1); Kings (1); Knicks (1); Raptors (1); Rockets (1); Warriors (1).

But here’s the craziest and most fascinating NBA lottery fact ever in the history of crazy and fascinating lottery facts: Through 29 NBA lotteries dating back to 1985, only one franchise ever won the NBA title with its own no. 1 overall pick. The team? San Antonio with David Robinson (two titles) and Tim Duncan (four titles, two with Robinson). How is that possible?

A Cereal Bowl of Karma Points

8. New Orleans Pelicans
Sorry, they totally botched the Chris Paul trade (and gave him to Donald Sterling, no less!), netted about 23 cents on the dollar for him, then were summarily rewarded by  the league totally rigging winning the Anthony Davis Lottery. He’s only the NBA’s third-best asset right now and the logical answer to the question, “Who’s winning the MVP trophy after LeBron and Durant are done passing it back and forth?” I think we’re good from a karma standpoint, New Orleans. Throwing a couple karma slabs your way only because I love the Brow.

7. L.A. Lakers
You gotta respect the year-to-year greatness of this franchise. Since 1958, they missed the playoffs only five times. They won only 27 games last year; that’s somehow their lowest total since 1958. They’ve never won the lottery; since 1982, they’ve never picked higher than 10th. They won 11 of the last 42 titles and appeared in 26 of the last 55 Finals. Since Elgin Baylor joined the Lakers in 1958, they’ve trotted out at least one historically great superstar in 49 of the past 56 seasons. And they’ve produced at least 3.5 million annoying fans (easily a league record).

On the other hand … they’re due to suck for a few years. Right? Why should THEY get the no-sucking-ever exemption? We’ll see if the Karma Gods think Lakers fans should suffer for a few years or not.

(By the way, if the Lakers win the lottery tonight, it will be one of the funniest Internet moments of all time and — since I’ll be appearing on live TV on ESPN — I’m just about guaranteed to get fired for what I’ll say afterward. I don’t know if this means the Lakers should get more or fewer karma points.)

6. Utah Jazz
Door A: Hire a competent coach, then re-sign Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap (two really good players).

Door B: Let Jefferson and Millsap go; trade for $20 million in Golden State’s expirings and pick up two G-State first-rounders in 2014 and 2017 that almost definitely won’t be in the lottery; then keep Ty Corbin as your coach just to make sure your team sucks enough for 2014 lottery purposes.

My verdict: I don’t think the Lottery Karma Gods loved how this played out.

A Salad Bowl of Karma Points

5. Milwaukee Bucks
Let’s be honest — the Karma Gods already threw them a solid with the whole “instead of losing your team to a superior offer from Seattle, we miraculously found two billionaire hedge fund guys who want to keep the Bucks in Milwaukee even if we’re not totally sure that Milwaukee loves professional basketball” thing. But unlike Philly, this franchise actually tried to compete — they spent money on midlevel free agents like O.J. Mayo, Gary Neal and Zaza Pachulia, overpaid Larry Sanders and made a sincere run at 40 wins and a first-round playoff sweep. Did that sincere run make any sense whatsoever? No!!!!!!!!!!!!! Absolutely not!!!! But at least they tried … right?

(Also, Viva La Greek Freak.)

(Also, this is the other “Funniest Twitter-Related Outcome” for the no. 1 pick. You know, considering they just sold the team and all … and considering we just watched the same thing happen with New Orleans two years ago.)

4. Detroit Pistons
Do you penalize them for the never-ending slew of head-scratching trades and signings, all the coaches they hired and fired, and all the money they tossed away? Or do you say, “It’s time for a fresh start for DEEEEEEE-troit basssssssketball with Andre Drummond, Stan Van Gundy and a top-three lottery pick, followed by the down-low hiring of V. Stiviano to secretly bait Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings into saying something terrible into a tape recorder so they can void both of their contracts”?

(You know what? I’m going with the latter. The NBA is more fun when the Pistons are good. They cleaned house, they’re moving forward, they made a very smart hiring with SVG, and now they deserve a break, dammit. Also, Jalen Rose would start throwing $100 bills into Indiana’s crowd tonight if his Pistons won the lottery.)

3. Denver Nuggets
Turned a high-functioning, 57-win team into a dysfunctional, 36-win team mostly through organizational incompetence. So why stick them this high? Because there’s a remote chance they could win the lottery with New York’s Ping-Pong balls (thanks to the Carmelo trade from years ago). Who has worse karma than the Knicks? Isn’t this destiny? For one night, the Nuggets get to bask in the bizarro glow of James Dolan’s basketball karma. Even if they have a 0.8 percent chance of winning, once you factor in Dolan, that jumps to 25 percent easy. I have a weird feeling about this one.

2. Boston Celtics
You gotta admit, they sold as high as possible on Pierce and Garnett (three unprotected no. 1s from Brooklyn in 2014, 2016 and 2018 plus a pick swap in 2017) and Doc Rivers (an unprotected no. 1 in 2015 that has a puncher’s chance of becoming a gem if the Sterlings fight to keep the Clippers and every Clipper decides, “I am suing to play for a different team”). You can’t execute an impromptu rebuilding plan better than that.

Also helping from a karma standpoint: As a lifelong Celtics fan, I’ve suffered through three tanking seasons (1997, 2007 and 2014) … and of those three teams, this was the only tanker that actually made me proud. They competed just about every night for Brad Stevens, blowing close game after close game because they didn’t have a crunch-time guy. It was the perfect tanking season, actually. I never felt like I had to take one of those 40-minute showers to get the stink off me. Throw in the way they handled Doc’s return, Pierce’s return and KG’s return and it’s hard to say the Celtics didn’t accrue some legitimate karma here. Then again, I’m a humongous homer.

1. Phoenix Suns
You can’t play it better than the Suns played it these past 15 months. They nailed the Jeff Hornacek and Ryan McDonough hirings. They successfully reunited the Morris twins and transformed them into NBA assets. They fleeced the Clippers with that Eric Bledsoe–Caron Butler for Jared Dudley–J.J. Redick trade, and then they pillaged none other than the Basketball Jesus with the Gerald Green–Miles Plumlee–2014 no. 1 for Luis Scola trade. They tried like hell to make the playoffs, winning 48 games and falling short on the final week (and only because they played in the West). They left themselves with four first-rounders and a buttload of 2014 cap space. They even made me say the words, “Hey, maybe Robert Sarver is turning into a good owner after all.”

What am I missing? Who played this better than the Suns? Even if they have a 1-in-200 chance of winning the 2014 lottery, at least they can sleep tonight knowing that the Lottery Karma Gods were applauding them. Well done, Phoenix.

Last note: If I have a heart attack on live TV at any point during tonight’s lottery, it’s been nice knowing you. Thanks for reading.




bob



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Post by 112288 Tue May 20, 2014 6:31 pm

This waiting and anxiety is like waiting for your time to come to meet OLD SPARKY at Sing Sing!

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Post by k_j_88 Tue May 20, 2014 6:57 pm

3 minutes!!



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Post by Sam Tue May 20, 2014 6:59 pm

I'm wearing the greenest thing I own. I've been wearing the same set of underwear for four months.

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Post by Sam Tue May 20, 2014 7:03 pm

So my question is, if a team doesn't like its draft position, can it demand a replay?

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Post by Sam Tue May 20, 2014 7:04 pm

Oh god, they're really going to drag this thing out. Describing the roundness of the balls as though they were on acid, the hue of the color of the popcorn machine, etc., etc. All for about 10 minutes of action, max.
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Post by bobheckler Tue May 20, 2014 7:08 pm

sam wrote:Oh god, they're really going to drag this thing out.  Describing the roundness of the balls as though they were on acid, the hue of the color of the popcorn machine, etc., etc.  All for about 10 minutes of action, max.


sam,


Actually, it's already over. Rich Gotham, Celtics President was back stage when the balls were actually pulled. This is just show.
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Post by Sam Tue May 20, 2014 7:14 pm

It ain't over until we've had the chance to cheer or moan. The consensus of the talking heads seems to be that, if the Celtics or Lakers get into the top three, they'll use it in a trade for Love. I've read the stuff about the first three players being franchise guys, but Love's not chopped liver.

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Post by bobheckler Tue May 20, 2014 7:18 pm

Pags didn't mention his lucky rooster.
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Post by Sam Tue May 20, 2014 7:20 pm

Six.
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Post by bobheckler Tue May 20, 2014 7:20 pm

So, it's #6
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Post by Sam Tue May 20, 2014 7:21 pm

Well, we beat out the Lakers, but not by much.

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Post by bobheckler Tue May 20, 2014 7:21 pm

Expect this to be traded.
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Post by 112288 Tue May 20, 2014 7:21 pm

BURN THE TIE!

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Post by k_j_88 Tue May 20, 2014 7:21 pm

You know what... this lottery sucks.

Lol.

The fact that the Sixers still have a shot really makes me mad. They tanked and get rewarded for it. And The Cavs are the new Clippers getting #1 picks every year.



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