The Autopsy Report

After a good night's rest I woke up surprisingly at ease.  I guess I was prepared for the inevitable and that made it much easier.  I was actually much more animated when the Celtics lost the ECF in game 7 to the Cavs.

We have lost 3 ECF now but all with different teams although some of our core guys were part of those losses.  You can pick and choose what you care to consume about what happened like a visit to your local smorgasbord.  But do not forget to take your daily probiotic pill.  

Celtics fans on this board are seasoned, knowledgeable and passionate.  Yet at times we seem to deviate about what we know about the game of basketball.  In an effort to support the players, coaches and GM, we look past the flaws and embrace some narratives that have been indicted.

We are now in the autopsy part of the Celtics' season.  It may seem hard to determine if death came from the players or the coach or the GM.  The fact is that it came from a combination of all of these.  Think of it as a more singular outcome that was fueled by several factors.

The Players

This team was definitely NOT built to win a title this year.  We need to understand that first and foremost.  That may be difficult for some considering we have several really talented guys on this team.  

To begin with we need a starting center.  The hype coming out of the Celtics camp has brainwashed fans into believing what a great fit Daniel Theis is.  Truth be told Daniel Theis is a 6' 8" PF that plays center.  He is an average player by any reasonable measurement you can come up with.  His role changed from rotation guy to center after Big Al left.  Don't buy into the skulduggery.  His talent and abilities remain that of a rotation guy.  He is simply no where close to being or becoming a championship level starting center.

Enes Kanter is a terrible big man because he cannot defend anyone on the court anywhere and at anytime.  

RWIII is stuck in the Twilight Zone because he is being coached by Rod Serling.  It does not matter if he plays good or bad.  He doesn't get to play enough because he is in the Twilight Zone.  I will expand more on this under the Coaches Corner.  

Grant Williams is not a center.  Intangibles are greatly overrated and are a poor substitute for actual talent.  GW has no game worth much at all.  He has no handle, no inside post moves, is too short to rebound in the NBA.  He did make 10 of 17 open catch and shoot 3's during the playoffs but the bottom line is that he averaged 1.3 points and 1.3 rebounds against the Heat.  

The J's are both high end players that need a bit more seasoning as it relates to their decision making.  GH was not ready to play.  Maybe it was the ankle, lack of conditioning or thinking about his new baby boy.  His long term future after next year is a big question mark.

Kemba Walker is the epitome of a scoring PG that does not add more value in other areas.  His size was exploited over and over again.  His presence on the court caused defensive breakdowns all over the place.  We could use a PG that can score, pass, defend and rebound.  That would be the ideal skill set.  Kemba is primarily a 3 point shooter.  

I love Marcus Smart and most everything that he does.  But he has yet to develop the discipline that we need.  This is primarily related to his insatiable appetite for taking 3 point shots.  He went 4-13 last night and many of them were shots that should never have been attempted.  This is not a one game event.  This is clearly a flaw in his decision making that has gone unchecked.

Wanamaker is a short term guy but for the money he has earned every penny.

Semi was of little help once again mainly because he cannot knock down the long ball.  This wait and see after 3 years needs to come to an end.

The rest of the group are undetermined players.  Romeo last year's lottery pick looks like a waste.  He gets injured pulling his jersey over his head.  He cannot shoot even in a rare moment of health.  I know, I know let's give him a chance.  Bullshit he's got no game!  

Coaches Corner

Being a loyal Celtics fan is not mutually exclusive from criticizing Brad Stevens.  The wayward child cannot be blamed for the lack of good parenting.  Stevens as a coach has been on the losing end of 3 out of the last 4 ECF.  You are what your records shows that you are.  I am just going to assume that Stevens has the capacity to improve as a coach.  To assume otherwise means that he should be fired.  But we know that is not going to happen.  He strings us along.  Some of us want to make excuses for him and that is the easy thing to do because the product is on the court playing.

It is his coaching philosophy that I take exception with.  His egalitarian mindset is not working.  It blurs the line of reality.  His inability to instill discipline among his players reflects a lack of leadership.  He cannot seem to seize the moment in games to alter  the direction of the outcome.  

We went into the ECF ill prepared to play against zone defenses.  It was pretty inexcusable.  It was the primary reason why we went down 2 zip.  It reduced our margin for error in having to come back in this series.  He left opportunities on the table.  

During the season he had an opportunity to prepare his team for the playoffs.  They were not fully prepared as the inconsistency overlapped from the regular season into the playoffs.  

He has unused tools in his box like RWIII who was never given a real opportunity to play.  We rarely saw any plays that were run specifically to exploit his athleticism at the rim against opponents.  During the regular season on defense, he was criticized for going after blocks on every play.  He was told that he would be out of the play for rebounds.  But it was not his responsibility to rebound in those situations.  The real problem was the other players inability to take on that responsibility.  This was a coaching mistake.  In essence his natural instincts were  stunted.  As a result he played less aggressive.  He made his share of mistakes but I am convinced that you have to let guys that are talented play through them because repetition is a marvelous antidote for improvement.  Brad Stevens would not play him quality minutes even when he was playing well.  

I do not believe that Stevens can take this team to another level.  Regardless of his coaching style and decision making the single biggest problem with Brad is his inability to get his team to play the right way.  There is no fear of him.  There is no accountability to be accountable for.  

The Top Guy  

Danny Ainge began the off season by over spending to add an offensive minded PG that has no history as a defender but did have a history of knee problems.  He has in fact been a good fit for this team in terms of how his energy interacts with those of his teammates.  Unfortunately fit alone cannot win a championship.  As a result Kemba Walker is actually less than the perfect fit that this team needs.  Danny should pursue trading options for kemba while his value is still reasonable and in hopes that him being exposed as a porous defender will not deter a team from making a trade.  Danny should draft a point guard who's measurable fit what we need at that position.  He needs to do this no matter what happens with Kemba.  the J's are still very young and we need a long term PG solution to go with them.

Danny needs to find a quality NBA starting center.  He had a chance to keep Baynes for the same money that he paid Kanter.  As we know Baynes had a great defensive rating and even developed into a guy that could make outside shots. I can see us losing AH but not Baynes.   Danny was out to lunch.

Once again the Celtics go into the draft with 3 first round picks and 1 second round pick.  Danny has hit payday on high lottery picks but the further away he gets from the top the more likely he will draft a guy that cannot help us.  Rumor has it that Danny liked the Herro kid out of Kentucky because his workout revealed above average shooting skills.  He could have moved up to 12.  Instead he let Pat Riley draft the player he wanted. This becomes more egregious when you consider the bad blood between both of them. Instead Danny drafts Romeo Langford an underwhelming challenged shooter that was injured.  Then he wastes the remainder of his picks on a group of guys with draft profiles that have proven to be accurate.  

It seems ironic that he jumped at a chance to draft KO but couldn't muster enough courage to go after Herro.   If Danny can draft a guy who is starter level material in a year or two the upcoming draft will be successful.  If he can package the picks/players and address a positional need the upcoming draft will be successful.

Free agency will be here shortly and the top priority should be a rookie extension for Allstar Jayson Tatum.  No if, ands or buts.

Danny needs to clear out some clutter (Semi, Green and Poirier)  and pair the roster away from a bunch of underwhelming rookies.  I would get rid of every single one of them if I could.  Let me give you an example.  If Boston traded Grant Williams, next year no one would miss him.  No one can honestly tell me you would say, "Gee we really miss Grant"

GH will opt in and Danny should encourage him to do so but only after telling him he may be traded.  The Celtics at least owe him that much.  He was acquired to be our top guy (before KI) and now he is a 4th wheel on an automobile with bad shocks.  His greatest value to this team would in a trade.  Rosalie I know this upsets you but he would be better off on another team.  The J's have pretty much made him expendable given his salary.

The MLE should be used to add a quality veteran player to mix.  As a matter of fact veteran minimum deals could be used to round out the roster instead of carrying a bunch of young scrubs that have no reasonable upside.

_________

the body is still warm for an autopsy, but it was a good read.

my 2 cents:

Ainge signed Kemba was a knee jerk reaction to Irving leaving is IMO.

Ainge is not great at drafting big men.


Stevens needs a VET NBA coach with HC experience on the staff. Ainge should make sure it happens.  A  JB Bickerstaff,  Sam Cassell, L. Hollins, Mo Cheeks type who has been a NBA HC before.

we have  guys with college experience mostly, and I think it shows.

as for players:

any upgrade will have to come from trades as the draft picks are not going to be much help. Maybe we get someone better than Kanter with MLE, maybe not.

Langford and Grant are keepers for me. Langford on the possible player he may become and  Grant as a deep bench , cheap player with high BB IQ.

I think we over rate Time Lord, many times he screws up as much as his does good on the floor. Lets be honest if he was the second coming of Russell ANY HC would play him 40 min per game (yes even Stevens).

Semi. Green, Porier and Edwards can all be sent packing and no one will miss them.

the owners will have to eat their deals.

replace with  two rookies and a MLE player may be the only choice besides trades.

oh yea

NO ONE will trade for Hayward. Mr Glass with a max contract. we are stuck with him one more year. and with Kemba and his bad knees for three more!!

just what it is.

I agree totally with your analysis. IMO you did not make a single point that has a legitimate counterpoint. While I usually try to stay away from being an amateur GM due to my lack of interest in fantasy sports/leagues and the (for me) headache inducing salary cap rules but I do think that your home city Hawks team can help provide some answers to what we need. Looking into the possibility of dealing for John Collins or Clint Capella (Who’s basically Bam before he was Bam) would if not solve would definitely improve our center play. Collins is a bit undersized but my feeling is that Brad doesn’t really want the behemoth/Baynes type as his minutes eating starter. I don’t know how or if Capella works cap wise. You also make a great point about the non drafting of Herro. I personally like Cole Anthony as a PG of the future.  His draft projections are mid to late lottery. If it took a move up to 10 or so then go up and get him. Your point about moving up for Kelly O while twiddling your thumbs as Herro is in range was excellent. The lesson there is obvious. Danny, regardless if it’s a guy I like or a guy you like, be aggressive in trying to get him. Maybe he did and could not find a willing trade partner so I don’t mean this as Danny bashing but we all know what we’re missing roster wise, a versatile big, a 2nd unit vet scorer (GH or trade of or MLE signing if GH is moved) and a 2 way PG to groom and grow with the J’s. I don’t know if my specific thoughts are Danny’s but the needs are obvious.

Dboss,
Thank you for this very thought out and detailed summary.
I wouldn't call it "autopsy" - the team still exists and, it's too dark to use such word.
I won't go into so many details. Just suffice it to say that mostly I agree with you: players, coach and GM are to blame.
If I'm asked to quantify this blame I'd put it in the following order: coach - 70%, players - 20%, GM - 10%.
I hope that Danny will be able to tweak the roster and Brad having learnt from previous mistakes will be able to lead the team to the promised land .

AK

kdp59 wrote:the body is still warm for an autopsy, but it was a good read.

my 2 cents:

Ainge signed Kemba was a knee jerk reaction to Irving leaving is IMO.

Ainge is not great at drafting big men.


Stevens needs a VET NBA coach with HC experience on the staff. Ainge should make sure it happens.  A  JB Bickerstaff,  Sam Cassell, L. Hollins, Mo Cheeks type who has been a NBA HC before.

we have  guys with college experience mostly, and I think it shows.

as for players:

any upgrade will have to come from trades as the draft picks are not going to be much help. Maybe we get someone better than Kanter with MLE, maybe not.

Langford and Grant are keepers for me. Langford on the possible player he may become and  Grant as a deep bench , cheap player with high BB IQ.

I think we over rate Time Lord, many times he screws up as much as his does good on the floor. Lets be honest if he was the second coming of Russell ANY HC would play him 40 min per game (yes even Stevens).

Semi. Green, Porier and Edwards can all be sent packing and no one will miss them.

the owners will have to eat their deals.

replace with  two rookies and a MLE player may be the only choice besides trades.

oh yea

NO ONE will trade for Hayward. Mr Glass with a max contract. we are stuck with him one more year. and with Kemba and his bad knees for three more!!

just what it is.

Kdp59  

Actually it is time for the autopsy.  Rigor mortis has already set in.

Celtics fans overate everything from players to coaches to GM's.

With respect to rookies Langford and G Will,  one is injury prone and the other is very much undersized AND lacks athleticism and therefore limited for the position.  He's no center.  Brad playing him at center does not make him a center.  And he lacks ball handling skills to even be a PF.  He's short and has no hops and he is slow and he has not a single go to move,   It is what it is.  Brad Stevens is the one that looked at him and thought, he's a center.  He's not.  Langford is not going anywhere but no one can tell me he will actually become a reliable shooter.  No one can tell me he can stay healthy.  I see him as one of those great HS over-hyped players that were not talented enough to make their mark in the NBA.  I did not agree with the pick when both him and Grant  was drafted.  Grant  is the one that had received the most playing time of all 7 rookies and right now it looks like an 0-7.  I have seen countless rookies added to this team over 60 years and this crop really looks like a complete flop.  

Your comments about the Timelord have some validity however the facts show that even when he has played well he does not get a chance to play.  A good coach can look at a player's strengths and amplify them.  Coach Stevens has not done that with RW.  To the contrary.  All Stevens has done is limit Robs development by playing Grant at a position that he cannot play.  Grant is not a center.  In my not so humble opinion Grant Williams is a scrub of a player.  He will be out of the league.  He will never make his mark as  Boston Celtics.  He is destined to become another 'what was his name players'

The owners do not have to eat  the deals for Semi and Green.  Poirier would be stupid to stay since it should be obvious to him that the NBA is not his league.  It would be easy to help him leave.  how about, "We no longer see you as a good fit so if you stay you probably will not be playing"

Edwards has a guaranteed deal but it is a cheap deal.  He appears to be too small to get off his shot when defended and he definitely is limited as a playmaker and defender.  I blame Brad Stevens for not having more screens set for him.  

The Celtics could trade GH to Indiana.  They are looking to upgrade their offense.  He would be a good fit on that team and garnish more scoring opportunities.  In my opinion the GH experiment is over in Boston.  He has just one year remaining so the max contract has no long term tail associated with it.

Dboss said:

‘’The Celtics could trade GH to Indiana.  They are looking to upgrade their offense.  He would be a good fit on that team and garnish more scoring opportunities.  In my opinion the GH experiment is over in Boston.  He has just one year remaining so the max contract has no long term tail associated with it’’.

I saw on some website (either ESPN or Bleacher Report) a proposed Celtics-Pacers deal. GH, pick 14&30 for Myles Turner, Jeremy Lamb and Doug McDermott. That would add 2 more wings to a wing heavy team but they’re just filler. Turner would be the key piece in the scenario.

willjr wrote:Dboss said:

‘’The Celtics could trade GH to Indiana.  They are looking to upgrade their offense.  He would be a good fit on that team and garnish more scoring opportunities.  In my opinion the GH experiment is over in Boston.  He has just one year remaining so the max contract has no long term tail associated with it’’.

I saw on some website (either ESPN or Bleacher Report) a proposed Celtics-Pacers deal. GH, pick 14&30 for Myles Turner, Jeremy Lamb and Doug McDermott. That would add 2 more wings to a wing heavy team but they’re just filler. Turner would be the key piece in the scenario.

one could ONLY HOPE!!!

willjr wrote:I agree totally with your analysis. IMO you did not make a single point that has a legitimate counterpoint. While I usually try to stay away from being an amateur GM due to my lack of interest in fantasy sports/leagues and the (for me) headache inducing salary cap rules but I do think that your home city Hawks team can help provide some answers to what we need. Looking into the possibility of dealing for John Collins or Clint Capella (Who’s basically Bam before he was Bam) would if not solve would definitely improve our center play. Collins is a bit undersized but my feeling is that Brad doesn’t really want the behemoth/Baynes type as his minutes eating starter. I don’t know how or if Capella works cap wise. You also make a great point about the non drafting of Herro. I personally like Cole Anthony as a PG of the future.  His draft projections are mid to late lottery. If it took a move up to 10 or so then go up and get him. Your point about moving up for Kelly O while twiddling your thumbs as Herro is in range was excellent. The lesson there is obvious. Danny, regardless if it’s a guy I like or a guy you like, be aggressive in trying to get him. Maybe he did and could not find a willing trade partner so I don’t mean this as Danny bashing but we all know what we’re missing roster wise, a versatile big, a 2nd unit vet scorer (GH or trade of or MLE signing if GH is moved) and a 2 way PG to groom and grow with the J’s. I don’t know if my specific thoughts are Danny’s but the needs are obvious.

Will jr

I like the Collins deal but how do we get him? I think we would need to sweeten the deal to include a first rounder. My comments about Baynes were actually related to our back up center Kanter and not a starting center situation. I should have framed it differently.

Capela works for me and the money may be easier to match up with a little creativity. Collins however would be a really good fit for what Brad likes to do. Would our first pick and Rob Williams get us a deal for Collins?

I really like Collins and I’d definitely offer RWIII and #14 for him. Would throw in any one of our rookies that the Hawks would like.
I agree with Baynes as a solid, dependable back up to bang with the Embiid types.

Collins is a RFA in 2021 I believe. He also had a big suspension this year for PED's I think it was. (whatever that is). I have read he is not the best defender, but I really haven't seen him play so I don't know.

I actually think it will cost a lot to get Collins from Atlanta, even with all of the above. Maybe #14 and another first this year and Romeo or Rob Williams.

so there you go dboss.......we can get rid of Romeo and only have one draft pick and get a young big man.....all in more move.

we both know Ainge will never go for it.....LOL.

I saw a report that Oladipo wants out of Indiana and will not resign with them after next season. so since we are already talking about stuff that will never happen.........drum roll.................................

Oladipo and Turner from Indiana for Hayward and Kanter (opts In) Maybe have to throw in one of the late first rounders this year to sweeten the deal.

sinus007 wrote:Dboss,
Thank you for this very thought out and detailed summary.
I wouldn't call it "autopsy" - the team still exists and, it's too dark to use such word.
I won't go into so many details. Just suffice it to say that mostly I agree with you: players, coach and GM are to blame.
If I'm asked to quantify this blame I'd put it in the following order: coach - 70%, players - 20%, GM - 10%.
I hope that Danny will be able to tweak the roster and Brad having learnt from previous mistakes will be able to lead the team to the promised land .

AK

Sinous007 indulge me a little here. The autopsy reference is about this season coming to an end.

You know the old Celtics had great talent but so did other teams. Take Red away from them and they probably do not win 11-13 during the Russell years. Take Tommy away and an undersized team does not win two titles. I would say that there is at least 1/3 split across the board. I would actually put more emphasis on the coach. Players come and go and each year we see a bunch of new players but the same coach. There are some exceptions as it relates to super elite talent but even this high end players cannot win without top notch coaching (MJ and LJ) are perfect examples.

I am not dumping on Stevens. He has managed to live with whatever Danny came up with. And he is not going to get fired. He deserves a chance to be a better coach.

[quote="dboss"]

kdp59 wrote:

Your comments about the Timelord have some validity however the facts show that even when he has played well he does not get a chance to play.  A good coach can look at a player's strengths and amplify them.  Coach Stevens has not done that with RW.  To the contrary.  All Stevens has done is limit Robs development by playing Grant at a position that he cannot play.  Grant is not a center.  In my not so humble opinion Grant Williams is a scrub of a player.  He will be out of the league.  He will never make his mark as  Boston Celtics.  He is destined to become another 'what was his name players'

I'm with you in this Dboss. GW benefits greatly from CSS (coache's son syndrome). Whenever a coaches son makes even the most routine play, everyone goes bananas about how they are a "coach's son" and how high their BBIQ is. On the other hand, I think the Time Lord suffered a little due to his somewhat goofy demeanor - he is almost the "anti-coaches son". He may be a little goofy, but it was pretty clear to me that he has a higher ceiling. Also, considering how Bam torched us all series, almost anything would seem to have been worth a try.

kdp59 wrote:Collins is a RFA in 2021 I believe. He also had a big suspension this year for PED's I think it was. (whatever that is). I have read he is not the best defender, but I really haven't seen him play so I don't know.

I actually think it will cost a lot to get Collins from Atlanta, even with all of the above. Maybe #14 and another first this year and Romeo or Rob Williams.

so there you go dboss.......we can get rid of Romeo and only have one draft pick and get a young big man.....all in more move.

we both know Ainge will never go for it.....LOL.

I saw a report that Oladipo wants out of  Indiana and will not resign with them after next season. so since we are already talking about stuff that will never happen.........drum roll.................................

Oladipo and Turner from Indiana for Hayward and Kanter (opts In) Maybe have to throw in one of the late first  rounders this year to sweeten the deal.

I agree with you about The cost to get Collins. I would do the deal.

as far as the Oladipo and Turner deal, you would need at least 2 firsts including #14 to entice a move like that. I doubt that would happen

dboss wrote:

kdp59 wrote:Collins is a RFA in 2021 I believe. He also had a big suspension this year for PED's I think it was. (whatever that is). I have read he is not the best defender, but I really haven't seen him play so I don't know.

I actually think it will cost a lot to get Collins from Atlanta, even with all of the above. Maybe #14 and another first this year and Romeo or Rob Williams.

so there you go dboss.......we can get rid of Romeo and only have one draft pick and get a young big man.....all in more move.

we both know Ainge will never go for it.....LOL.

I saw a report that Oladipo wants out of  Indiana and will not resign with them after next season. so since we are already talking about stuff that will never happen.........drum roll.................................

Oladipo and Turner from Indiana for Hayward and Kanter (opts In) Maybe have to throw in one of the late first  rounders this year to sweeten the deal.

I agree with you about The cost to get Collins.  I would do the deal.

as far as the Oladipo and Turner deal, you would need at least 2 firsts including #14  to entice a move like that.  I doubt that would happen

ha ha...nothing I ever come up with is gonna happen!!

just trying to get in off-season mode (for however long that is this season).

I posted about Doc Rivers moving on....maybe he can be Stevens bench coach next season!

that's an attempt at humor, BTW

kdp59 wrote:

dboss wrote:

kdp59 wrote:Collins is a RFA in 2021 I believe. He also had a big suspension this year for PED's I think it was. (whatever that is). I have read he is not the best defender, but I really haven't seen him play so I don't know.

I actually think it will cost a lot to get Collins from Atlanta, even with all of the above. Maybe #14 and another first this year and Romeo or Rob Williams.

so there you go dboss.......we can get rid of Romeo and only have one draft pick and get a young big man.....all in more move.

we both know Ainge will never go for it.....LOL.

I saw a report that Oladipo wants out of  Indiana and will not resign with them after next season. so since we are already talking about stuff that will never happen.........drum roll.................................

Oladipo and Turner from Indiana for Hayward and Kanter (opts In) Maybe have to throw in one of the late first  rounders this year to sweeten the deal.

I agree with you about The cost to get Collins.  I would do the deal.

as far as the Oladipo and Turner deal, you would need at least 2 firsts including #14  to entice a move like that.  I doubt that would happen

ha ha...nothing I ever come up with is gonna happen!!

just trying to get in off-season mode (for however long that is this season).

I posted about Doc Rivers moving on....maybe he can be Stevens bench coach next season!

that's an attempt at humor, BTW

kdp59

I truly enjoy your humor as well as any attempts at humor

All predictions are like trying to pinpoint the first snowfall in PA. We always get it wrong! But it is a lot of fun trying to get it right.

Couple of more thoughts. A lot of posters have been critical of Brad and players taking too many 3's at the end of tight games. Others have defended Brad arguing that the players play the game. As always, nothing is ever simple. I have a feeling that the players were actually trying to do what they thought is the right thing rather than trying to play iso/hero-ball. Hear me out... The past few years, all anyone ever hears is how the 3 point shot it more efficient. If I had a nickel for every article I read praising Tatum for how he reduced long 2s to take 3s, I would be a rich man. And, everyone is right. Three point shots are more efficient. Mathematical fact. Everyone here knows the arguments. Three point shots are more efficient in the long run. Over the course of the season, they are more efficient for sure. Over the course of a game too. Even over the course of most quarters. However, at the end of games, this truism is no longer exactly true.

Everyone here knows that shooting 33% on 3s is the same as shooting 50% on 2s, and everyone know shooting 50% on 2s is difficult while shooting 33% on 3s is reasonable. Over the course of a season, game, or even quarter, shooting 3s is more efficient. Fact. The problem is, this logic breaks down at the end of close games. Think about it this way - if a team is shooting 33% on 3s, that means that for one particular possession, there is a 67% chance you come away with no points at all. Over many shots, you end up making out if you shoot 3s (cause they are worth one more point than 2s), and thus the 3 is more efficient overall. But for one possession - choosing to shoot the 3 is actually the wrong choice. At the end of close games, especially when you are ahead, the last thing you want to happen is that you come away from a possession with no points. Thus, even a long 2 with only a 41% chance of going in is better than a 3 with a 40% chance of going in. Fact.

I honestly believe this team was not disobeying Brad, or trying to play hero ball - I believe they became overly conscious of trying to take the more efficient shot with the hope of winning the game. I really hope that the problem is that Brad didn't do a good job of explaining what I explained above. If not, then we have a bigger problem in that Brad himself doesn't really understand the mathematical basis of the analytics he so dearly loves....

Shamrock1000 wrote:Couple of more thoughts. A lot of posters have been critical of Brad and players taking too many 3's at the end of tight games. Others have defended Brad arguing that the players play the game. As always, nothing is ever simple. I have a feeling that the players were actually trying to do what they thought is the right thing rather than trying to play iso/hero-ball. Hear me out... The past few years, all anyone ever hears is how the 3 point shot it more efficient. If I had a nickel for every article I read praising Tatum for how he reduced long 2s to take 3s, I would be a rich man. And, everyone is right. Three point shots are more efficient. Mathematical fact. Everyone here knows the arguments. Three point shots are more efficient in the long run. Over the course of the season, they are more efficient for sure. Over the course of a game too. Even over the course of most quarters. However, at the end of games, this truism is no longer exactly true.

Everyone here knows that shooting 33% on 3s is the same as shooting 50% on 2s, and everyone know shooting 50% on 2s is difficult while shooting 33% on 3s is reasonable. Over the course of a season, game, or even quarter, shooting 3s is more efficient. Fact. The problem is, this logic breaks down at the end of close games. Think about it this way - if a team is shooting 33% on 3s, that means that for one particular possession, there is a 67% chance you come away with no points at all. Over many shots, you end up making out if you shoot 3s (cause they are worth one more point than 2s), and thus the 3 is more efficient overall. But for one possession - choosing to shoot the 3 is actually the wrong choice. At the end of close games, especially when you are ahead, the last thing you want to happen is that you come away from a possession with no points. Thus, even a long 2 with only a 41% chance of going in is better than a 3 with a 40% chance of going in. Fact.

I honestly believe this team was not disobeying Brad, or trying to play hero ball - I believe they became overly conscious of trying to take the more efficient shot with the hope of winning the game. I really hope that the problem is that Brad didn't do a good job of explaining what I explained above. If not, then we have a bigger problem in that Brad himself doesn't really understand the mathematical basis of the analytics he so dearly loves....

Rock this is an excellent point.

There is no doubt that Brad has a penchant for the 3 point shot.  In interviews after games where the 3 pointer did not contribute to a win, he pretty much discounted issues associated with when and when not to shoot them.  He discounted players missing.  I think that he primarily believes that an open 3 point shot is a good shot.  He however did mention a bad 3 point shot hosted by Smart in one of these game but he did not specifically mention his name.  I really like that about Brad.  He will not put a player on blast.

But let the record show that  MS threw up 13 (3) points shots in a must win game 6.  He even had the green light to attempt two heat check 3's after a timeout simply because he had knocked down two in a row before the time out. These are the type of 3 point shots that are flat out stupid.  This is where coaching comes in.  You have to curb your players bad tendencies.  There is only one way to do that.  You discuss it with them.  You remind them again if it persists.  Then you have to sit them on the bench.  You take this approach with your best and your worst players and they will respect you more.   Any other players will quickly understand that repeatedly crossing the line has consequence. If you do whatever knowing the worst reaction is some lame sarcastic comment from the coach then by all means keep jacking those mfers up.

If you are like most coaches and you embrace the sheer magnitude of scoring 3 point baskets, there has to also be limitations that help a team make decisions on when to take them and when not to take the.  Penalties should be clear and enforced.

Dboss, I agree with all your points, all, except that I think GWill will stick in the league as an end of the bench PF with good defensive skills, a high bball IQ, and eventually a decent 3 point shot %. But who cares about that? All your other points ring true.

Brad got outcoached even though one the the coaches that outcoached him still lost, but in extending the series to 7, a lot of confidence was lost as Brad from that moment on got progressively worse. Brad still would not admit it was a bad call to go into a zone with 0.5 not even a second left. Really how do you not just body up each player instead of having them cover a space and getting confused when opposing players are scrambling to do something and your assigned to either a spot or player...?????

If we would have just played simple man to man and had every player covered and bodied up for a split second, we probably sweep that series and are bubbling with confidence up 3-0. Brad still denies that you shouldn’t play zone in that situation, that it is effective. He is an x/o strategy nerd, but his strategies were weak and his players couldn’t execute his system enough to close out key moments in precious games, like the game 3 that the team never recovered from, as he tried to downplay that he called a terrible defensive scheme at the worst possible time.

I think he’s too full of himself, he did a great job getting a young team to overachieve in 18, but he kept his same offense, kept Jaylen locked in corner as 3rd option. Why couldn’t he figure out a way to attack the opposing teams other weak defensive players the way those teams exploited and attacked KW...??? Because his cup is full, he believes all his books on strategy and sticks to his rigid outdated system, instead of having the ability to create on the fly, based on match ups, like other elite coaches can do. Dragic, Hero and Robinson are average to below average defenders at best, but they weren’t major defensive liabilities in this series because Brad had some talented guy standing in the corner over and over as KW and Tatum and Smart took turns, your turn, my turn to run the offense. Tatum actually had stretches of great passing that was good to see, but why weren’t we running more Pierce bully ball lobs close to the basket for Jaylen instead of so many times him in the corner watching those guys dribble...???

I think Brads afraid of Smart, he knows how hard he plays and bleeds green, but he can’t harness him and get the best out of him, like how Doc made Pierce more efficient as soon as he got here, he always stayed on top of Pierce to MAKE him better. Next year RWill has to stay healthy and get minutes, if BS can’t develop him that would just be a crying shame. As a matter of fact get a big man coach cause Brad is too much of an analytics geek. Get a real big man coach, like we had for Perk and Big Al. He’s done nothing with Semi, if RWill is healthy and he never improves and looks exactly the same at this time next year, that means this organization has real problems with drafting and developing talent.

That was the damn play that changed everything for the worse as the young team lost confidence every step after that boneheaded call. That was the biggest play of this playoff run....damn we sure looked like everything was falling exactly into place before that play. After that game we lost poise and confidence everytime the game got close.

Dboss I really hope your wrong on this draft class, scary that you easily could be right. If you are right, what a damn waste. Bad drafts ruin organizations, look at the Charlotte Hornets and NY Knicks and then look at all their picks....Danny has a shitload of work to do to get this team into the Finals being our coach is so intellectually full of himself, but can he relate to players and get them to buy in? He needs better strategy too to get full confidence of players, then he can get further out of them. I know Red and Tommy were not x/o guys, they yelled at refs, their own players, the opponents. Brad is an x/o guy that is NOT that smart, hes more full of his intellect, that’s the scary thing.

cowens/oldschool wrote:Dboss I really hope your wrong on this draft class, scary that you easily could be right. If you are right, what a damn waste. Bad drafts ruin organizations, look at the Charlotte Hornets and NY Knicks and then look at all their picks....Danny has a shitload of work to do to get this team into the Finals being our coach is so intellectually full of himself, but can he relate to players and get them to buy in? He needs better strategy too to get full confidence of players, then he can get further out of them. I know Red and Tommy were not x/o guys, they yelled at refs, their own players, the opponents. Brad is an x/o guy that is NOT that smart, hes more full of his intellect, that’s the scary thing.

If I am wrong about any of these picks I will fess up and acknowledge I was wrong.  I hope I am wrong and a RL turns into a solid rotation/starter level player.  GW on the other hand was a reach and his numbers prove it.  He is not going to get taller or add inches to his leaping ability which impacts his ability to rebound and also score in the post and also defend in the post.   I refuse to use the catch all intangibles argument because I see it as an excuse for not having anything specific to say about a player.  Sooner or later you have to actually put numbers on the board.  Next year we will be able to see if he has improved.  He needs to improve quite a bit just to reach average.  He's G-league level talent at best.

Why are we talking about GWill? RWill is a much more important asset whom Brad has not developed. Even if he does develop, we need another big and have needed one since Baynes left. Since way before Baynes left, even with whatshisname with the Miss Universe wife who left for Philly and still could not rebound there either.

I think we are stuck with Brad next season. I hope Danny complements the coaching staff with some quality NBA assistant coaches, one of whom I hope says to Brad, "What the hell are you doing with Jaylen? You are so misusing him!"

Now that you brought it up worse, actually I mentioned it some in my post, Brad should have played RWill more, a lot more and I don’t know if he can fully develop him. What’s scarier is he doesn’t know how to use him. His offense sucks, look at 4th quarter of Cavs game in game 7 2 years ago, all we did was chuck 3’s. Look at last 5 minutes of the last game, it’s a 2 point game, then we go into bricking 3 after 3. Marcus Smart started 4-8 from 3, finished 4-13, okay let’s let him take early 3’s at crunch time. Did I mention no timeouts? So even if RWill develops, Brad doesn’t know how to use a low post scorer. First 2 games of playoffs RWill was a ridiculous 10-11 FG, then we never saw them go to him anymore. How about building on that in the thick of the playoffs when you discover something that actually works very well, instead of not going to it...??? I already mentioned and have seen it on a lot of other comments right on you tube about Brads brilliant hey Jaylen your so talented, we need you to stand in the corner, go to the corner, and don’t touch the ball for 5-6 posessions....you know cause I know analytics.

My eye test and stats tell me Jaylen was our best player this series. On Lakers they let Lebron or AD go for 35 or 40 when they are feeling it and they have a favorable match up and that team knows how to get those stars the ball. Its putting your best players in the best position to succeed. Jaylen was totally underutilized this series, we’re so many more creative and efficient ways to use him.