Tyler Zeller to the C's

112288,


Here's Thornton's shot chart for 2013-2014.  Note that he took as many shots from mid-range and in as he did from 3pt land.  Unfortunately, I'll have to provide a separate post for Chris Johnson because, together, the post is too big for the system but compare the two charts.  Who takes a higher percentage of 3s...





bob



.

112288,


Here's Chris Johnson's shot chart for 2013-2014.  Note the percentage of his fgas that were 3s vs 2s.







bob



.

cowens/oldschool wrote:

beat wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:hope this kid is in the weight room, hire Dave Cowens to teach this kid how to rebound.....tell him you want a 8-9 mill contract, avg 10 boards a game. If he can't do it, tell him he'll be gone. its a cold world.

What Cowens did I doubt can't be "taught". this kid is what he is. a serviceable center for now. Plus who knows if he will ever play here............more moves might be coming

beat

I'm not expecting him to ever rebound like Dave Cowens, but someone has to toughen this kid up and teach him how to do the little things and big things so that this kid can be more physical and develop him to his full potential.

Cow,

If you look at the difference in Kelly's shoulders and arms with just a couple of months with BDoo, I'm sure BDoo will be able to do something with Zeller.  He has a bigger frame than Kelly and he's already 250#.  Kelly might be up to 250#, maybe.

What concerns me about Zeller is his 'tude.  He needs to WANT to bang, WANT to swallow penetrators up.  That's one thing I'll say for Iverson, he LOVES contact.  In the first SL game he got into something with the opposing center and the opposing center got T'd up for it.  While the opposing center bitched to the ref Iverson stood back and watched, listened and smirked.  He's an instigator.  I'm hoping for that from Zeller.  We'll see.

Where Zeller has it all over Iverson is on offense, Zeller has one, and NBA experience.



bob



.

112288 wrote:Bob,

Thornton has been in the league since 2009 and knows an NBA system while Johnson was fighting for his life as a rookie trying to cram knowledge of how to play NBA ball in 3 months. Also look at the average number of minutes for Thornton - high 20's you do get a better feel for the game with more minutes while the stats are pretty close and $7M apart in salary.

Now compare the 2 salaries and the fact that you did not look to the other side of the ball ..........defense.

112288

112288,


I agree with Sam, $ is Danny's business, I care about ball players.  If Thornton had 3 more years left on his contract that would be a consideration but he doesn't.  He's trade bait or an expiring contract.

You're right about the difference in experience.  I value experience.


As far as their numbers go, other than salary (which I don't care about except as it impacts acquisitions and tradeability):

Chris Johnson's /36mpg (he averaged 19.7mpg last year):

G---GS--MP---FG---FGA---FG%---3P--3PA---3P%---2P---2PA---2P%---FT--FTA--FT%---ORB---DRB---TRB--AST---STL---BLK--TOV---PF--PTS
40--0--789---3.9--9.8---.397----2.0--5.8---.339---1.9--4.0---.483----1.7--2.0--.860----1.4----3.0---4.4---1.4----1.2---0.2--1.0---2.9--11.4


Marcus Thornton's /36mpg (he averaged 23.8mpg last year):

G---GS--MP---FG---FGA---FG%---3P--3PA---3P%---2P---2PA---2P%---FT--FTA--FT%---ORB---DRB---TRB--AST---STL---BLK--TOV---PF--PTS
26--1--620---6.4--15.4--.414----3.0--8.0---.380---3.4---7.5---.450---2.8--3.5--.800----1.0---3.3----4.3---1.7---1.6----0.2--1.7---2.1--18.6


So, in relatively comparable minutes (19.7 vs 23point8), what have we got?  

Two lousy shooters (39.7 vs 41.4) but Thornton is a better 3pt shooter (38% vs 34%).  CJ a slightly better ft shooter.  Same rebounds.  MT more assists, more steals and more TOs and A LOT more points.  These are just stats.  They don't tell us if the reason why Thornton had more TOs because he's just careless with the ball or because he handled it more.  Johnson rarely dribbled last year and, quite frankly, I thought when he did dribble he didn't look good.

This doesn't take into account defense, true.  It also doesn't take into account that Chris Johnson has started in exactly zero NBA games in his career.  Thornton has started 126, including 1 last year for Brooklyn despite only playing in Brooklyn for 26 games.  Not starting might not say much about Johnson, he's new, but starting in 126 games DOES say something about Thornton.

A lot of us fell in love with CJ because he came in and started hitting 3s right off.  Then, we went stone cold for almost the rest of the season, that's why he only shot 34% in the end.

Nobody is cut, as in finally completely off the team, until they are traded or released.  James Young has not been signed yet, so he can still be traded immediately (Smart can't be for 30 days).  Thornton might be traded as soon as the CBA allows.  Or Johnson as part of a package deal.

Today is the first day of free agency signings. There are a lot of deals that are hanging fire, waiting for LeBron and Melo to make up their minds. We're not even done with Orlando summer league yet, much less Vegas. That means that GMs are still trying to figure out what they have and don't have.



bob



.

Outside wrote:112288,

Allow me to offer a counter-counterpoint.

Rather than look solely at how Zeller compares to what you'd like to have, compare him to what they had previously at the center position -- Sullinger, with a smattering of Humphries, Vitor, and Olynyk. When viewed from that standpoint, Zeller is a significant upgrade to their most glaring weakness. Even if he only gets them to "meh," that's a whole lot better than watching a floor-bound Sullinger using his bulk and grit to battle taller guys every night and seeing the Celtics at a disadvantage in the middle every night.

Zeller is not as mediocre as you think. My guess is that main problem with your perception of him is that he played in Cleveland and you haven't really had a chance to watch him play. As far as I can see, the guy most vulnerable to being dropped from the roster is Vitor, not Iverson. Here is a comparison with Vitor on benchmarks I chose arbitrarily but I think are illustrative -- games with 10 or more points, eight or more rebounds, and two or more blocks. I searched for each category individually and divided Zeller's result by two to compensate for him playing two seasons to Vitor's one.

Games with 10 or more points
Zeller - 19 per season
Vitor - 4

Games with 8 or more rebounds
Zeller - 15
Vitor - 4

Games with 2 or more blocks
Zeller - 14
Vitor - 6

Zeller is athletic, and given the opportunity he can have in Boston, actually has the potential to reach an Asik level of production without giving up what Houston was asking for Asik, and he's four years younger (24 vs. 28). If he doesn't work out, he was cheap and easy to dispose of.

If I'm Ainge, the Vitor era is over. He was low-risk and he made a nice splash in his first few games, but that was short-lived, and he didn't make the grade. It bugs me that he looks physically soft, as if he doesn't work out seriously (no definition in his arms and shoulders), and slipping screens is a specialty of his.

Maybe Iverson will have an NBA career, but if so, he has journeyman backup written all over him. At a minimum, Zeller has already started 64 games in his two-year career and is capable of being a backup at minimum. Zeller's floor is Iverson's ceiling.

The summer isn't over, but Boston could do far worse than Zeller, Iverson, and Olynyk as the depth chart at center.

Why not be cautiously optimistic? Give the kid a chance.

outside,

Let me add to the congratulations for your post.

Normally I'm leery of comparing players without taking into account the minutes each played, but I think there's an underlying point you made that still holds true.  Zeller is an upgrade over what we had last year.

Two teams, both young and developing players, both ridiculously thin at center.  One starts a rookie (the only other center available after the veteran, Andy Varajao goes down) and the other starts an older NBA rookie but with years of professional experience for 8 games and then benches him (without so much as a whisper of bad conduct, so it wasn't some kind of punishment like was handed down to Bogans.  Everybody seemed to like Vitor).  Brad Stevens is NOT the type of coach who will only play veterans (Phil Pressey and Kelly got a lot of minutes, especially Kelly, and Sully started at center a lot and he was just a sophomore).

An upgrade from 'Nil' to 'Meh' is still an upgrade.  Furthermore it lets Kelly and especially Sully to play, and develop, at 4.

And it's only the 2nd day of free agent season.  I think, but am having trouble confirming, that you cannot trade someone you just received in a trade for 30 days (I know that's true for rookies like Smart and Young.  Free agents cannot be re-traded for 3 months, but traded players...?).  That means there is still time to rumble before camp begins, much less regular season.



bob



.

kdp59 wrote:well befoe we put Zeller in the hall of fame, we might need to see something from him.

saying he's played better than Fav is a VERY low bar to pass, IMO.

I know there were more than a few fans who thought Fav was some un identified find from Euro ball by Danny and was going to be the man at center for us last year.

Fav instead was what many others of us felt he was, a long time Euro baller, who was NOT over looked by other teams. He simply is marginal as an NBA talent at best.


I like getting Zeller.

Probably the best we can do this year. I still doubt he plays more than 1400-1500 minutes for us next year. I Just see Sully, Bass and Kelly all as better players and therfore getting more minutes.

kdp,


Bradley played a lot of minutes last year, he averaged 31mpg, and only played 1855 minutes total.  Yeah, he was out with injuries,but injuries are part of the game.
Hump played 1376 minutes, averaging about 20mpg.
Kelly played 1400, averaging 20mpg over 70 games.

My point here is that 1500 minutes isn't too shabby, let's say 21-22mpg, especially if Vitor, Anthony and/or Iverson get some reps at center.  At the minimum it's a solid rotation player, which is all I'm really looking at him as right now.  A solid, legit 7'0", 250# backup center.  We develop him a bit this year and try to sign a real starter the year after this one, or pick up a starter this year before the trade deadline, and we're in business.

I wouldn't be surprised, though, if Zeller played north of 25mpg though.  With Anthony being undersized and not in our longterm future, Vitor coming back from surgery and probably needing to work himself back into shape slowly and Iverson being a bubble player, his competition for minutes is limited.



bob


.