Chasing them down

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Post by dboss Sat Feb 26, 2022 10:24 am

Let's keep it moving.  7th place Raptors lost last night.

Cavs vs wash tonight a loss by them and a win by us would be great
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Post by bobheckler Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:57 pm

Cut-and-pasted from my Post-Game Detroit post.


We are now only 1/2 game behind Cleveland for 5th and 1 game behind Milwaukee for 4th and a playoff home court series. Philly, in 3rd, is only 1 1/2 games ahead of us. A stumble by any of those 3 and we are well-positioned to move up. We now have the 10th hardest schedule left in the NBA, it won't be easy, but it is very, very much within striking distance. In our rear view window we have Toronto 2 games back, but tied in the loss column, and Brooklyn 4 games behind us and 3 games back in the loss column. Our targets are closer than our trailers, and that's how it should be.


Bob


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Post by cowens/oldschool Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:02 pm

In his first game with 76ers, couldn’t have went better with Harden, he is going to male life easier and better for Embid and Maxey and the whole team. He is such a great passer and driver, we will see how much he has left….

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Post by dboss Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:57 pm

By Sunday evening after the Pacers game, the Celtics will be in 5th place.

Cleveland plays Washington tonight.

Washington loss a brutal 2OT game last night to the Spurs 157-153.  The Cavs are home.  Easy pick would be Cleveland.

I'm taking the Wizards tonight.  The Cavs will be playing without Garland and recently injured Rondo.  With Sexton out for the year, they are down 3 point guards.

The collar around the neck of the Cavs is probably getting a bit tight.    I think I will watch the game.

Tomorrow Boston plays and they will continue along a path to keep moving up.
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Post by dboss Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:36 am

Good news/bad news

Try flipping through 4 games.

Good News

Atl beat the Raptors giving us more space ahead of them.

Memphis got by Chicago and Crooklyn beat Milwaukee.

Bad news Washington choked away an opportunity to beat the Cavs.  But nothing gained and nothing lost.

The Bucks loss drops them down to #5 and the Cavs jump up to #4.

Things look quite fluid.
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Post by dbrown4 Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:13 am

Yeah, dboss, one of the things I've discovered about being on watch for teams above and below us, go for the average.  By that I mean, if your predictions sound too unreasonable, something is going to trip them up and bring you back to the core.  Someone's going to win, someone's going to lose.  We've put ourselves in this situation by our play up to this point.  This extra watching wouldn't be necessary if we were in first.  But it makes it fun to see who's going to choke first.  And someone will.  We just have to keep winning.  All I know is Ime has told the team something, some very outlandish goal and whatever it is, it's coming true in every game so far.  

He must have told the (general) bench to look like Carolina's (ala Dean Smith) in college basketball.  Everybody up, everybody cheering, high fiving and falling out like bowling pins (that's more NBA.  Dean would never have allowed that!).  Very subtle, but it works.  Dean Smith/Carolina also had a 5-pass rule before anyone took a shot.  Check.  Less bitchin' at the refs and more playing basketball?  Check. Creating more wide open, "practice" shots during the game so the game is like solo practice? Check.  See Dave Hopla re: shooting practice percentages.  Creating our own "luck" each possession?  Check.  

Going forward, a loss is going to be a lot like what Russell used to do after a loss...scratched his head then got back to winning.  

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Post by dbrown4 Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:58 am

I've also discovered that the way we moved up so quickly to sixth was a deluge of teams losing all at the same time above us plus BKN tanking while we were winning. That's more a rarity and anomaly than anything.

CHI lost, that brings the top team in the East one game closer to us. MIL lost, now only 1 game ahead in the loss column to us. Of the 4 "other" games played last night that affected us, 2 helped us. Par for the course. 50/50.

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Post by dboss Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:52 am

I actually watched the endings of 4 games last night except for Atl and Raptors (Hawks were already up big)

The Bulls could not stop Ja Morant.  

The Spurs played sloppy basketball but still gave the Heat all they could handle.  20 turnovers is what killed them and that is the main reason why Pop missed a chance to tie Don Nelson for most wins as a coach in the NBA.

The Wizards had the Cavs on the ropes but not having solid play making and rebounding lost the game for them.

The Bucks/Nets game took a lifetime to end.  The defining moment was Grayson Allen blowing an opportunity to tie the game after being fouled on a 3 point attempt.  Kyrie was virtually unstoppable.  The Bucks defense is starting to look porous. Last 5 games they have given up 131, 122, 119, 123 and 126 points

We are now 1/2 game behind them.  They have lost 2 in a row and 4 out of their last 5.  If they cannot fix their defense they will continue to slide down the standings.

The Celtics just need to stay focused on the next game and then the next game after that.  As they transition into being a powerhouse in the East, look for coach Ime to continue his methodical process of getting all the kinks out while expanding his rotation in preparation for a deep playoff run.
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Post by bobheckler Sun Feb 27, 2022 11:07 am

I have found that when trying to understand where we sit in the playoff race it's best, as we approach the end of the season, to look at the loss column.  Not all teams have played the same number of games so far, but they will by the end and making up losses is harder when you're trying to catch good teams than it is trying to catch them by winning.  If they are a playoff-bound team with a record >.500 and are ahead of you in the standings then they are more likely to win than lose (at least more likely than you, that's why you're behind them), so assuming you can catch them by winning doesn't necessarily work because they're likely to be winning too.  Gaining because you're surging is one thing.  Simple, easier to control.  Gaining because you're surging and because they're slumping has more conditions for success, some of which are out of your control (e.g. their health, their focus, the difficulty of their schedule).

It's too soon to start counting "Magic Numbers" but it's soon enough to start watching loss columns.

2/17/22, before any games start:

Rank.........Team..................# Losses
1..............Miami ................21
2..............Chicago..............22
3..............Philadelphia.........23
4..............Cleveland............24
5..............Milwaukee...........25
6..............Boston..............26
7..............Toronto...............27
8..............Brooklyn.............29
9..............Charlotte.............31
10............Atlanta................31

There are a net two losses by Cleveland separating us from a playoff homecourt series.  There is only 1 Celtic loss between us and the play-in slot of 7th.  As of today we have a 2-1 H2H edge over Toronto with one more game to play against them.  If we win that game we win the tiebreaker.  If we lose that game we'll be 2-2 on the season against them but are still likely to win the next tiebreakers.  Winning tiebreakers is as good as having an extra loss for padding, as good as being up two losses and not just one.


Bob


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Post by dboss Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:12 pm

Bob I too always focus on the loss column.

The reason why Boston is 5 games behind Miami is because of our earlier losses to one too many bad teams.  Trying to make up a 5 game spread with only 20 games left is clearly a tough lift.  The Heat are a seasoned team.  Boston will need to play somewhere around .800 ball the rest of the way.  I think we can actually make up 2 games at the very least and secure the #4 spot.  There is no doubt that winning at that level will be damn difficult.  At the same time the teams above us are not great teams.  

Believe it or not we only have one game remaining vs. The Heat, Bulls and Bucks and Crooklyn.

The Heat sitting at the top have (2) against Bulls, (2) against Sixers, (2) against the Nets who should be fully engaged by then plus 1 vs the Bulls and 1 against us.

Chicago has no cake walk either.  They got (3) against the Buck, (2) against the Cavs plus (1) each against us, the Heat and the Sixers.

The point that I am making here is that the teams above us are going to beat up on each other.

Philly got (3) vs Cavs, (2) vs Miami and (1) vs Bucks

It should be amusing to watch all those crabs in a barrel try to make it to the top.

Doesn't this make you feel a bit warm and fuzzy?
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Post by cowens/oldschool Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:34 pm

dboss wrote:Bob I too always focus on the loss column.

The reason why Boston is 5 games behind Miami is because of our earlier losses to one too many bad teams.  Trying to make up a 5 game spread with only 20 games left is clearly a tough lift.  The Heat are a seasoned team.  Boston will need to play somewhere around .800 ball the rest of the way.  I think we can actually make up 2 games at the very least and secure the #4 spot.  There is no doubt that winning at that level will be damn difficult.  At the same time the teams above us are not great teams.  

Believe it or not we only have one game remaining vs. The Heat, Bulls and Bucks and Crooklyn.

The Heat sitting at the top have (2) against Bulls, (2) against Sixers, (2) against the Nets who should be fully engaged by then plus 1 vs the Bulls and 1 against us.

Chicago has no cake walk either.  They got (3) against the Buck, (2) against the Cavs plus (1) each against us, the Heat and the Sixers.

The point that I am making here is that the teams above us are going to beat up on each other.

Philly got (3) vs Cavs, (2) vs Miami and (1) vs Bucks

It should be amusing to watch all those crabs in a barrel try to make it to the top.

Doesn't this make you feel a bit warm and fuzzy?

Yes lol

Thinking of 3 games we blew, opening night vs Knicks, if Jaylen finishes that lefty slam….

The Bulls game, had such a big lead then don’t know what the hell happened…???

The Pistons game right before the ASG, if only Tatum buries that makeable mid range jumper.

Well that’s 3 that we shoulda, coulda, woulda….

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Post by dboss Sun Feb 27, 2022 1:17 pm

Cow no doubt but the actual number of should have won games is closer to 12.  Split that and win 6 and we would be sitting at the top of the mountain right this very day.

No need for us to play the what if game.  The fact that the team has transformed into a legit contender after squirming around like a fish in a sea of mediocrity, is amazing!

Those other teams will be fully engaged in what can best be described as a circular firing squad!  Just wanted to share this with everyone.  Warm and fuzzy.
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Post by bobheckler Sun Feb 27, 2022 1:48 pm

Here's the rest of our schedule:

2/27  @ Indiana
3/1   vs Atlanta
3/3   vs Memphis
3/6   vs Brooklyn
3/9   @ Charlotte
3/11  vs Detroit
3/13  vs Dallas
3/16  @ Golden State
3/18  @ Sacramento
3/20  @ Denver
3/21  @ Oklahoma City
3/23  vs Utah
3/27  vs Minnesota
3/28  @ Toronto
3/30  vs Miami
4/1   vs Indiana
4/3   vs Washington
4/6   @ Chicago
4/7   @ Milwaukee
4/10 @ Memphis


3 more b2bs.  Two Away/Away, one Home/Away.  That's a tough schedule.  The Minny/Toronto and Chicago/Milwaukee b2bs will be brutal.

10 Home, 10 Away and, as I said above, 3 of those 10 Away games are part of b2bs.

6 of those 20 games are vs teams that aren't playing for playoff seeding, not even the play-in (Indiana 2X, Detroit, Sacto, OKC, Washington).  The rest all have something to prove and/or gain.  Of those 6 games 3 are at Home and 3 are on Away.

This means that 14 out of our remaining 20 games are against good teams.

Our last 3 games of the season are all on the road against very good teams.


Bob


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Post by dbrown4 Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:01 pm

How they perform in those games and where we wind up will tell us all we need to know about how well we will perform in the playoffs, if we make it. 2/3rd of games are against playoff bound teams. Perfect.

Put up or shut up. But the days of expecting to move up yet continuing to lose to bottom feeders is over.

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Post by dboss Wed Mar 02, 2022 12:42 pm

A couple of interesting matchups tonight.  The Heat play at the Bucks.  Kyle lowery is out.  The Heat have been playing excellent basketball.  I think the Bucks will win but I would rather see a Heat win because it will move us up relative to the Bucks.  The Bucks at #4 and Cleveland at # 5 are well within reach.

Also the pathetic Knicks play at Philly in their 2nd game against them.  On Sunday the Sixers beat them down in MSG 125-109.  Can the Knicks get a road win tonight? probably not.

Lastly the Hornets will play the Cavs in Cleveland.  The Cavs are playing .500 ball over their last 10 games but the Hornets are 2-8.  Can someone out there give us a hand?
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Post by bobheckler Wed Mar 02, 2022 2:38 pm

Before any games start, 3/2/22

Rank.........Team..................# Losses
1..............Miami ................21
2..............Chicago..............23
3..............Philadelphia.........23
4..............Milwaukee...........25
5..............Cleveland............25
6..............Boston..............27
7..............Toronto...............27
8..............Brooklyn.............31
9..............Charlotte.............32
10............Atlanta................31


Bob


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Post by bobheckler Wed Mar 02, 2022 2:42 pm

Here's the rest of our schedule:

2/27  @ Indiana - LOSS
3/1   vs Atlanta - WIN
3/3   vs Memphis
3/6   vs Brooklyn
3/9   @ Charlotte
3/11  vs Detroit
3/13  vs Dallas
3/16  @ Golden State
3/18  @ Sacramento
3/20  @ Denver
3/21  @ Oklahoma City
3/23  vs Utah
3/27  vs Minnesota
3/28  @ Toronto
3/30  vs Miami
4/1   vs Indiana
4/3   vs Washington
4/6   @ Chicago
4/7   @ Milwaukee
4/10 @ Memphis

3 more b2bs.  Two Away/Away, one Home/Away.  That's a tough schedule.  The Minny/Toronto and Chicago/Milwaukee b2bs will be brutal.  UNCHANGED.

9 Home, 9 Away and, as I said above, 3 of those 10 Away games are part of b2bs.

6 of those 20 games are vs teams that aren't playing for playoff seeding, not even the play-in (Indiana 2X, Detroit, Sacto, OKC, Washington).  The rest all have something to prove and/or gain.  Of those 6 games 3 are at Home and 3 are on Away.

This means that 14 out of our remaining 20 games are against good teams.  NOW 14 of our remaining 18 games are against good teams since neither Indiana nor Atlanta are good teams.

Our last 3 games of the season are all on the road against very good teams.


Bob


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Post by dboss Wed Mar 02, 2022 9:24 pm

Cavs lose, Celtics move up to 5th.
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Post by dboss Wed Mar 02, 2022 9:37 pm

Our beloved IT with10 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists.

I wish we had signed him.
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Post by bobc33 Wed Mar 02, 2022 11:03 pm

dboss wrote:Cavs lose, Celtics move up to 5th.

It really is turning into a heck of a race in the East! So many permutations and ramifications. Should be enjoyable watching the remainder of the season.

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Post by dbrown4 Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:31 am

dboss,

In the GB column, Cavs and us are 4.5 GB, but since we've won one more game and lost one more game, statistically, we are still in 6th.  Not surprisingly, losses kill us!! But it does appear the Cavs are our next victim to overtake. I do like your let's get this moving and move up attitude, though!!  One team at a time.  

What I don't want is our tick-tack, no trade back attitude of last year where we were given gift after gift of moving up and refused darn near everyone by subsequently losing the following game(s).  It's already starting and tonight it doesn't get any easier.  Sunday also with that game being an "Away" game for BKN.  

These two games may be the season as far as where we wind up in the standings.  (not to mention the last three games of the season.  But the landscape could be totally different by then and too hard to speculate this early.)  We have no one to blame but ourselves for our current location/position.  What's hard to digest is with all this winning, we aren't moving up quicker.  We have the best record in the NBA for the last 20 or so games, at least that's what the media is picking up on.  And we're not that far from first at 4.5GB.  Then we throw in two duds against DET and IND.  Still we're winning and clearly shouldn't look a gift horse in the mouth, but this is like wading through quicksand!

MIL should have lost last night but MIA folded up like a cheap suit with real crappy play at the end of that game.  Literally dared MIL to beat them.  Yeah, let's not try that again, Eric!  They are still defending champs.  But it brings the Heat/Top of the East closer to us or back to 5 losses ahead of us in the loss column.  So for that game, it was a 6 of one, half-a-dozen of the other for us as by either team losing/winning benefitted us.

dboss, db needs a new pair of shoes!  What's your parlay for the next two games?!  Trifecta if you want to throw in our resulting location in the standings after Sunday.  haha

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Post by dboss Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:30 pm

DB

I got a little ahead of my skies there, lol.

Tonight vs the Grizz will be a very interesting matchup. They are one of only a few teams that play a double big in their lineup.

Taking the Celtics at home to cover the spread 107-104

KD will be back for Sunday's nationally televised must see game at Boston. Jaylen Brown may not be back in time for this game. That means that Crooklyn will have a big advantage on offense and I am not yet ready to declare that our bench is up to the task. However the X factor will be our defense. Boston will not cover the spread but I still have them winning by 7 at home (111-104)
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Post by dboss Thu Mar 03, 2022 2:09 pm

Tonight

Boston over Memphis

Heat over Nets. After the last minute road loss by the Heat, they have got to be ready to face a Nets team with KD back. Irving will be out. Ben Simmons is still in limbo. According to ESPN's Brian Windhorst, Simmons' agent Rich Paul said Simmons (back) is considered "week-to-week" and is frankly not even close making his Nets debut. Windhorst went on to add, "I don't even know if he's going to be back in March."

How is it that a guy who has not played a game since June 20, 2021 has a bad back?

Bulls over Hawks because Trae has a bad ankle thanks to him coming down on Marcus's foot on a 3 point attempt the other night and John Collins is still out.

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Post by dbrown4 Thu Mar 03, 2022 2:46 pm

BS was probably hunched over his X-Box and PlayStation all that time and exercised bad posture!  (And did no exercise over that time period!!)

But I agree with you.  A lot of things aren't adding up with Ben Simmons.  I'm just sayin'.  Bad back, mental issues, not playing, hanging out with the team in street clothes.  All the reasons are piling up why BKN probably won't even make it out of the first round even if they get past the play-in or even make the play-in.  You heard it here first!

Alright.  dboss has spoken.  Place your bets!!      

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Post by Ktron Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:36 pm

dboss wrote:Our beloved IT with10 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists.

I wish we had signed him.

Hmmm Say it louder so Brad and Wyc can continue to play deaf.

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