Playoff Seeding Updates and Magic Numbers Countdown

Bob you're right on it. I'll send you my Complex Numbers Analysis textbooks if you need them but you're doing great!

I'll repeat, DEN thinks they are better than they really are. Currently, I am not expecting to see DEN make it to the Finals. Steve3344, you are correct in that they should have won by 20+. Heck, we should have won by 20+ last night vs. MIL. The difference is we'll have Holy Hell reigned down upon us today by the talking heads for nearly blowing another lead/game against the one team in the East that can/will dethrone us, which BTW we've only done once vs. CLE. DEN gets a pass with "turning it on just in time for the playoffs" or "they've been down this road before and know what it takes", "pacing themselves", etc. Whatever. Clearly you can see I'm sick of it!!

db

The East race is over.  The Celtics Magic number is 3.

Out West the Celtics magic number is 8.

An 8-5 record the rest of the way gets us there.  However it is unlikely that OKC or anyone else can run the table.  

OKC has 14 games remaining with 8 on the road and 6 at home.  I am looking forward to the matchup with them on April 3rd.

An 11-2 record the rest of the way would tie the 2008 66 win season.

There are at least 8 teams that could end up in the 8th seed in the East.

Possible candidates (Cavs, Knicks, Magic, Pacers, Heat, Sixers, Bulls and Hawks) It however is very unlikely that the Cavs and Knicks will fall below the 6th seed.

I want the Hawks but that is not going to happen this year

I have a prediction.  OKC will not be able to hold on to the top spot in the West. (6 out of 8 remaining Road games vs playoff teams)

Denver will win the West.  MN is 5-5 over their past 10 games.  KAT is out.  I do not think that they have enough depth to replace the production that KAT provided.

I think it will end up

1 - Denver
2 - OKC
3 - Minny

dboss,

I was doing the math and it looks like the odds on faves for the 6-8 are IND, PHI and MIA.  That said, I'd prefer to have PHI and MIA straddle the 6th place/Play-In Mendoza Line.  Like you, I'd prefer we play ATL or CHI but they have to win twice and vs. any of those three teams regardless of who's in or out of the line up, ATL or CHI won't make it.  

Also, and I don't know how the league is correcting this or just leaving it as is, but IND should have an extra game (or worse, two) from the IST.  If PHI, MIA and IND all wind up with the same number of losses at season end, IND gets 6th place.  So that puts PHI and MIA in the play-in.  With our luck we will play one of them.  Really don't want either of those to start off the first round, even though we have both of their numbers.  While the theoretical odds of the straddle are, in order (where order doesn't matter since 7 plays eight) for 6-8 are IND, PHI/MIA or PHI, MIA/IND or MIA, IND/PHI.  Amounts to a 67% chance PHI and MIA straddle, but if IND has that extra game in the win column exactly like they do right now and the season ends today, then MIA and PHI wind up in the play-in for 7 vs. 8.  It's all numbers crunching until the season ends and the way is clear.  

I'm not looking for anything close to a repeat of 2008 except for the final result.  This team should be able to roll through the first two rounds, 8-0 or 8-1.  Anything more trying than that will be a sign we haven't made much progress from last season.  I believe like all of us on this site we are light-years ahead of last year's team.  We've got this 6-game road trip and some home games to iron out these last annoying details before it's SHOWTIME where we know ALL deficiencies are revealed and strewn all over the place for all to see and exploit.  I'm expecting very little participation and involvement by Boston in this free-for-all.

db

db

Indiana has played 70 games and have 12 remaining according to their schedule.  That's 82 just like everyone else.  Remember the in-season tournament final game does not count towards the regular season, win or lose.

The Sixers are really struggling and may not even get to play 8X7.  They have a 4 game cushion over 9th place Chicago and that may be just enough.  I think the Heat continue to be very unpredictable but this is the time of year when they tend to settle into playing well.  I figure that they will get the 7th seed if they have to participate in the Playin.  The Pacers are only 1/2 game ahead of them and could also slip out of 6th place.  

It is certainly a very fluid situation because 2, 3 and 4 have only a 2 game spread and 5, 6, 7 and 8 have just a 3 game spread.  The margins for all those teams gets thinner by the day.  Any slippage will flip these standings.  

I think the Sixers are finished.  Without Embid they are a very average team.  The Pacers are also in trouble because Hield was traded and then Mathurin is gone.   Plus they remain a very poor defensive team.

I want to see Philly finish at 8 so that we can beat their butts.  Then we are going to have to beat either the Cavs or the Knicks.  (the 4/5 matchup)  I think the Knicks will  beat the Cavs.  celts vs knicks looks quite possible.  Provided the Bucks do not slip up against the heat the ECF should be celts/Bucks.

OK, that's how they did it. OK, it all makes sense now. Thanks for the heads up!

db

dboss wrote:db

Indiana has played 70 games and have 12 remaining according to their schedule.  That's 82 just like everyone else.  Remember the in-season tournament final game does not count towards the regular season, win or lose.  

The Sixers are really struggling and may not even get to play 8X7.  They have a 4 game cushion over 9th place Chicago and that may be just enough.  I think the Heat continue to be very unpredictable but this is the time of year when they tend to settle into playing well.  I figure that they will get the 7th seed if they have to participate in the Playin.  The Pacers are only 1/2 game ahead of them and could also slip out of 6th place.  

It is certainly a very fluid situation because 2, 3 and 4 have only a 2 game spread and 5, 6, 7 and 8 have just a 3 game spread.  The margins for all those teams gets thinner by the day.  Any slippage will flip these standings.  

I think the Sixers are finished.  Without Embid they are a very average team.  The Pacers are also in trouble because Hield was traded and then Mathurin is gone.   Plus they remain a very poor defensive team.

I want to see Philly finish at 8 so that we can beat their butts.  Then we are going to have to beat either the Cavs or the Knicks.  (the 4/5 matchup)  I think the Knicks will  beat the Cavs.  celts vs knicks looks quite possible.  Provided the Bucks do not slip up against the heat the ECF should be celts/Bucks.

DBoss,

There are reports that Embiid might be back for the start of the playoffs, in 2-3 weeks.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10113906-nba-rumors-76ers-hope-joel-embiid-can-return-from-knee-injury-in-2-3-weeks


Bob


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MAGIC NUMBERS AS OF, POST-GAMES, 3/21/24:


Nets put up a fight but lost to the Bucks in the final minutes.

Nuggets beat the Knicks.  Our MN is still vs OKC, but Denver is keeping it close.  They are only 1 game behind in the loss column to OKC.  This will motivate OKC to keep playing hard to retain their #1 seed unfortunately.  A loss by Denver would drop them 2 back and that might make OKC to take a game off.  Not so far...Our Magic Number to clinch homecourt all the way through the playoffs is still be 8.


Tomorrow's games of interest:


Celtics @ Pistons

OKC @ Toronto

Cleveland @ Minny




MAGIC NUMBERS (COMBINATION OF CELTIC WINS AND OPPONENT'S LOSSES TOTALING THE NUMBER).  13 GAMES LEFT FOR US:

Play-in Berth clinched.
Playoff Berth clinched.
#4 Seed, and a homecourt series, clinched.
#3 Seed, clinched.


CELTICS MAGIC NUMBERS
Overall 1-seed: 8 (OKC)
1-seed: 3 (Milwaukee)
2-seed: 1 (Cleveland)
3-seed: Clinched (March 20)
4-seed: Clinched (March 18)
Playoffs: Clinched (March 14)
Play-in: Clinched (February 27)


Bob



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Bobh

The Sixers really miss Embid.  I did see reports that he will try to return in time for the playoffs.  I think it will be a disaster.  They look like a playin team and could easily get beat.

The team to watch are the NYK.  They lost to the Nuggets last night (I watched the game) They are missing their entire starting front line.  Mitchell will be back soon, Randle is still in a no-contact situation and Anunoby has experienced a flair up with his surgically repaired elbow.  Assuming they can be in tact by the playoffs, they will be one tough out for whomever they face.  Their defense is top of the line and they grind it out for 48 minutes.

With Regard to OKC, if thy are able to maintain their top seeding in the West it would be a shock to me.  Consider their remaining schedule below:

@Raptors
@Bucks
@Nola
vs. Rockets
vs. Suns
@NYK
@Sixers
@Celtics
@Pacers
@Hornets
vs kings
vs Spurs
vs Bucks
vs Mavs

MAGIC NUMBERS AS OF, POST-GAMES, 3/22/24:

Celtics thrashed the Pistons

OKC beat Toronto.

Cleveland @ Minny.  Doesn't matter.  Our win over Detroit eliminated Cleveland.


Tomorrow's games of interest:

Celtics @ Bulls

Nuggets @ Trailblazers


MAGIC NUMBERS (COMBINATION OF CELTIC WINS AND OPPONENT'S LOSSES TOTALING THE NUMBER).  12 GAMES LEFT FOR US:

Play-in Berth clinched.
Playoff Berth clinched.
#4 Seed, and a homecourt series, clinched.
#3 Seed, clinched.
#2 Seed, clinched


This job is getting easier by the day as we eliminate teams.  The only teams that matter now are Milwaukee (but not for much longer), OKC, Denver and Minny.  The last three teams matter only in that who wins the west, they don't matter as far as Magic Numbers.  The MN to secure #1 throughout the playoffs is 7, currently against OKC.

CELTICS MAGIC NUMBERS
Overall 1-seed: 7 (OKC)
1-seed: 2 (Milwaukee)
2-seed: Clinched (March 21)
3-seed: Clinched (March 20)
4-seed: Clinched (March 18)
Playoffs: Clinched (March 14)
Play-in: Clinched (February 27)


Bob



.

Nice!! Down to the last two hurdles! And the next to last one is on a very short leash as you illustriously point out!! Keep up the good work, bobh!

db

MAGIC NUMBERS AS OF, POST-GAMES, 3/23/24:

Celtics beat da Bulls on a SEGABABA with only 2 starters.

Nuggets win, so they're still just one game behind OKC in the loss column.


Tomorrow's games of interest:

OKC @ Milwaukee  - Clinching the #1 seed in the East is a foregone conclusion now, but I am still conflicted over who I want to win this.  A Milwaukee win would tie OKC with Denver in the loss column for #1 seed out West.  Do I want OKC or Denver having the edge throughout the Western Conference playoffs?  OKC.  So I'm rooting for OKC here.  Let's keep Denver on their hip.

GSW @ Minny - Not a really relevant game, but Minny is just one game behind Denver and therefore still a possibility, albeit a dark horse at this point.


MAGIC NUMBERS (COMBINATION OF CELTIC WINS AND OPPONENT'S LOSSES TOTALING THE NUMBER).  11 GAMES LEFT FOR US:

Play-in Berth clinched.
Playoff Berth clinched.
#4 Seed, and a homecourt series, clinched.
#3 Seed, clinched.
#2 Seed, clinched



CELTICS MAGIC NUMBERS
Overall 1-seed: 6 (OKC)
1-seed: 1 (Milwaukee)
2-seed: Clinched (March 21)
3-seed: Clinched (March 20)
4-seed: Clinched (March 18)
Playoffs: Clinched (March 14)
Play-in: Clinched (February 27)


Bob



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MAGIC NUMBERS AS OF, POST-GAMES, 3/24/24:

Bucks blew the Thunder out.  Surprisingly uncompetitive.  The Thunder are now tied with Denver in the loss column, Denver has a win in hand.  

We have a 7 game lead in the loss column over both Denver and OKC (we have 14, they both have 21).  Assuming Denver finishes the season going 11-0 we cannot do less than 5-6.  That would increase our loss number to 20, which would be one less than what they already have, and enough to finish the season ahead of them.  Therefore our Magic Number is 5.  Any combination of Celtic wins and Denver losses totaling 5 clinches #1 all the way through.

With this win Milwaukee's MN remains at 1.  We can eliminate them tomorrow.

Timberwolves beat GSW.  No effect on MNs, but it keeps Minny only 1 game behind Denver and OKC and still in the hunt.


Tomorrow's games of interest:

Celtics @ Hawks.

Memphis @ Denver


MAGIC NUMBERS (COMBINATION OF CELTIC WINS AND OPPONENT'S LOSSES TOTALING THE NUMBER).  11 GAMES LEFT FOR US:

Play-in Berth clinched.
Playoff Berth clinched.
#4 Seed, and a homecourt series, clinched.
#3 Seed, clinched.
#2 Seed, clinched



CELTICS MAGIC NUMBERS
Overall 1-seed: 5 (Denver and OKC)
1-seed: 1 (Milwaukee)
2-seed: Clinched (March 21)
3-seed: Clinched (March 20)
4-seed: Clinched (March 18)
Playoffs: Clinched (March 14)
Play-in: Clinched (February 27)


Bob



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5 in the West and 1 in the East.

In absence of a 4-7 finish the race is over.

The great thing is that the Celtics do not really have to depend on any team to secure the top seed.

Watched the Bucks take OKC apart yesterday. Fascinating defense to contain SGA (12 points on 5-12 shooting)

They would not let him score at 2nd level. Saw some unusual traps.

MAGIC NUMBERS AS OF, POST-GAMES, 3/25/24:


This is what I had teed up to post when we were up 30:
CONGRATULATIONS TO THE CELTICS FOR CLINCHING THE #1 SEED IN THE EAST.  ONLY ONE MAGIC NUMBER LEFT BEFORE THE PLAYOFFS.


Denver took care of their business.


Tomorrow's games of interest:

Lakers @ Bucks - Irrelevant if we win tonight.

Thunder @ Pelicans


MAGIC NUMBERS (COMBINATION OF CELTIC WINS AND OPPONENT'S LOSSES TOTALING THE NUMBER).  10 GAMES LEFT FOR US:

Play-in Berth clinched.
Playoff Berth clinched.
#4 Seed, and a homecourt series, clinched.
#3 Seed, clinched.
#2 Seed, clinched



CELTICS MAGIC NUMBERS
Overall 1-seed: 5 (Denver and OKC)
1-seed: 1 (Milwaukee)
2-seed: Clinched (March 21)
3-seed: Clinched (March 20)
4-seed: Clinched (March 18)
Playoffs: Clinched (March 14)
Play-in: Clinched (February 27)


Bob



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MAGIC NUMBERS AS OF, POST-GAMES, 3/26/24:

Lakers beat the Bucks in 2OT.  The Celtics have now clinched #1 seed in the East.

Thunder beat the Pelicans - Game 1 of a b2b


Tomorrow's games of interest:

Detroit @ Minny

Houston @ OKC - Game 2 of a b2b

Phoenix @ Denver



MAGIC NUMBERS (COMBINATION OF CELTIC WINS AND OPPONENT'S LOSSES TOTALING THE NUMBER).  10 GAMES LEFT FOR US:

Play-in Berth clinched.
Playoff Berth clinched.
#4 Seed, and a homecourt series, clinched.
#3 Seed, clinched.
#2 Seed, clinched
#1 Seed in East - Clinched



CELTICS MAGIC NUMBERS
Overall 1-seed: 5 (Denver.  6 game lead in loss column, but they own 1st tiebreaker, so we can only afford 5 losses)
1-seed: Clinched (March 26)
2-seed: Clinched (March 21)
3-seed: Clinched (March 20)
4-seed: Clinched (March 18)
Playoffs: Clinched (March 14)
Play-in: Clinched (February 27)


Bob
MY NOTE:  Tomorrow is a big travel day for me, I'm finally heading back home to California.  There will be no update to this until Thursday.

We need to go no worse than 5-5 in our remaining 10 games. If we can't win 5 games against the Hawks, 2X Hornets, Trailblazers and the Wizards we don't deserve #1 seed.


.

Well said, bobh, well said.  Hope you have very safe travels! Finally we've reached the supposed "easy" part of our schedule the media has been harping on for the last 4 weeks!

db

Safe travels Bob. Welcome back to the USA.

Travel Safe Bob, getting home in time for the fireworks?

Thank you all for your kind wishes.  I'm back in San Carlos now.  Got to bed about 2:30am this morning, but my body wants to wake up the same time regardless.  I'm sure I'll pay the price tonight, but tonight is tonight.  Today I live.


MAGIC NUMBERS AS OF, POST-GAMES, 3/27/24:

Minny beat Detroit.

In Game 2 of a SEGABABA Ime's Rockets beat OKC at home.

Phoenix beat Denver at home.

These are the best of all possible results.  There is now a 3-way tie in the loss column for #1 in the West.  Denver has a win in hand, so they're technically 1/2 game ahead of OKC and Minny but, by the end of the season, that will all work itself out.  I haven't looked at WC playoff matchups, so I don't know if being #1 gets them the opponent they want, but I want Minny more than I want either of the others.

These losses by both Denver and OKC negate any damage we did to ourselves in that loss to Atlanta.  We are now, once again, up 7 games in the loss column with fewer games left.  The clock is running out on the west to catch us.


3/28/24 games of interest:

Celtics vs those surely doomed Hawks.



MAGIC NUMBERS (COMBINATION OF CELTIC WINS AND OPPONENT'S LOSSES TOTALING THE NUMBER).  10 GAMES LEFT FOR US:

Play-in Berth clinched.
Playoff Berth clinched.
#4 Seed, and a homecourt series, clinched.
#3 Seed, clinched.
#2 Seed, clinched
#1 Seed in East - Clinched



CELTICS MAGIC NUMBERS
Overall 1-seed: 4 (Denver.  7  game lead in loss column, but they own 1st tiebreaker and neither of the other two do (yet, waiting on outcome of 4/3 game vs OKC), so we can only afford 6 losses.  That means we have to win 4, or some combo off it)
1-seed: Clinched (March 26)
2-seed: Clinched (March 21)
3-seed: Clinched (March 20)
4-seed: Clinched (March 18)
Playoffs: Clinched (March 14)
Play-in: Clinched (February 27)


Bob
MY NOTE:  We need to go no worse than 4-6 in our remaining 10 games.   Minny and OKC are tied with Denver in the loss column, however, we are tied 1-1 with Minny H2H and own the next tiebreakers against them and we are 0-1 vs OKC with a game against them coming up @ Boston this Wednesday.


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I will not settle or be happy with a 4-6 finish. We need to finish strong. Supposedly Holiday may be back for tonight's game, not sure about White, but my suspect that he will be in there too Boys were embarrassed beyond belief the other night, need to kick a...and take no names tonight. It will not get any easier, Zion on the horizon, OKC and Milwaukee, we need to beat these teams. Monday's game was awful, had it in hand and got lazy. Let's see what happens tonight Welcome home Bob, could you find your way home after being away for so long. I heard there was a missing person's report out on you!!!!!!!!!! By the way, have you heard from Berlin as to how he is doing, know he was going thru a rough time with his back

RosalieTCeltics wrote:I will not settle or be happy with a 4-6 finish.  We need to finish strong.  Supposedly Holiday may be back for tonight's game, not sure about White, but my suspect that he will be in there too   Boys were embarrassed beyond belief the other night, need to kick a...and take no names tonight.  It will not get any easier, Zion on the horizon, OKC and Milwaukee,  we need to beat these teams.  Monday's game was awful, had it in hand and got lazy.  Let's see what happens tonight    Welcome home Bob, could you find your way home after being away for so long.  I heard there was a missing person's report out on you!!!!!!!!!!   By the way, have you heard from Berlin as to how he is doing, know he was going thru a rough time with his back

Rosalie,

I was ready to be done.  That's how I do it.  I go until I feel/sense the end of it and then I look for a flight/bus/train/rental car to my next logical/emotional destination, so I never tarry much longer than a few days more than I want if that.  I'll stay here for a while, taking care of business, reconnecting with friends and favorite restaurants etc. and then no doubt I'll hear the wild geese calling again.  More a matter of when, not if.  


I have not heard from Berlin.  I believe he made a brief appearance on the Game On! thread a few games back, didn't he?  I hope he's well, or at least improving.


Bob


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Worst case scenarios are exactly what they are.

Rosalie I would not worry too much about the Celtics finishing weak. Remember they went into the ATL having won 20 out of 22 games.

OKC is coming apart at the seams because they have a tough road ahead (which I mentioned in another thread) Denver will win the West. Soto has two games remaining against Denver and both are in Denver.

The great thing about a magic number is that it combines wins and losses. It has a cumulative effect.