Playoff Seeding Updates and Magic Numbers Countdown

Last night was the best of all possible worlds as we sat idle. We only care about home court all the way through the Finals. Except maybe for 6,7 & 8th EC teams all losing and nothing changing and MIA and PHI still in the 7/8 slot. While it's not going to matter who we play, it will be who it is. I've already voiced my distain of MIA and/or PHI. I'd prefer to face neither. And to get to the Finals we will have to get out of the 1st round regardless of opponent. Of course I want two 4-0 sweeps to the ECF. And in most circumstances, given this team of bounty that we have, we should get to the ECF undefeated or maybe one of two losses MAX and accumulate lots of rest time along the way. We shall see!

db

MY NOTE:  This is a bit premature, I admit.  While the top teams in the East are pretty set their opponents in the first rounds are not.  The West, of course, is even less settled.  This list assumes there are no upsets in the Play-in Tournament, I think Miami proved that's a dangerous assumption last year.  Nevertheless, it's something for us to ponder on.  Most teams don't have the dominating home record we have and, therefore, having a higher seeding isn't as impactful.  However, matchups do matter and some teams matchup better against others.  Case in point, look at the regular season H2H record Denver vs Sacto.

These are updated daily on this website:

https://www.espn.com/nba/playoffs/matchups


Eastern Conference

CURRENT MATCHUP

(1) Boston (57-15)
Games remaining: 10 (6 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 6

(Eight) Philadelphia (39-34)
Games remaining: 9 (4 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. East: 6
Regular season series (Celtics lead 3-1)
Nov 8, 2023 Boston 103, Philadelphia 106
Nov 15, 2023 Boston 117, Philadelphia 107
Dec 1, 2023 Philadelphia 119, Boston 125
Feb 27, 2024 Philadelphia 99, Boston 117


CURRENT MATCHUP

(2) Milwaukee (46-26)
Games remaining: 10 (5 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 6, vs. East: 7

(7) Miami (39-33)
Games remaining: 10 (6 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 7
Regular season series (Bucks lead 2-1)
Oct 30, 2023 Miami 114, Milwaukee 122
Nov 28, 2023 Milwaukee 131, Miami 124
Feb 13, 2024 Miami 123, Milwaukee 97


CURRENT MATCHUP

(3) New York Knicks (44-28)
Games remaining: 10 (4 Home, 6 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 7

(6) Indiana (41-33)
Games remaining: 8 (5 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. East: 6
Regular season series (Pacers leads 2-1)
Dec 30, 2023 New York 126, Indiana 140
Feb 1, 2024 Indiana 105, New York 109
Feb 10, 2024 Indiana 125, New York 111


CURRENT MATCHUP

(4) Cleveland (44-29)
Games remaining: 9 (4 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 6, vs. East: 3

(5) Orlando (42-30)
Games remaining: 10 (5 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 6, vs. East: 5
Regular season series (Series tied 2-2)
Dec 6, 2023 Orlando 111, Cleveland 121
Dec 11, 2023 Cleveland 94, Orlando 104
Jan 22, 2024 Cleveland 126, Orlando 99
Feb 22, 2024 Orlando 116, Cleveland 109


Lottery Bound

(9) Chicago (35-38)
Games remaining: 9 (3 Home, 6 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 8

(10) Atlanta (33-39)
Games remaining: 10 (5 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 7, vs. East: 7

(11) Brooklyn (28-45)
Games remaining: 9 (6 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 6, vs. East: 7

(12) Toronto (23-50)
Games remaining: 9 (4 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 7, vs. East: 7

(13) Charlotte (18-54)
Games remaining: 10 (7 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 8, vs. East: 5

(14) Washington (14-59)
Games remaining: 9 (6 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 6

(15) Detroit (12-61)
Games remaining: 9 (2 Home, 7 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. East: 5



Western Conference

CURRENT MATCHUP

(1) Denver (51-22)
Games remaining: 9 (5 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 7

(Eight) Sacramento (42-30)
Games remaining: 10 (6 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 7, vs. West: 7
Regular season series (Kings leads 3-1)
Dec 2, 2023 Denver 117, Sacramento 123
Feb 9, 2024 Denver 106, Sacramento 135
Feb 14, 2024 Sacramento 102, Denver 98
Feb 28, 2024 Sacramento 96, Denver 117


CURRENT MATCHUP

(2) Minnesota (50-22)
Games remaining: 10 (6 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 6, vs. West: 6

(7) Phoenix (43-30)
Games remaining: 9 (4 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 9, vs. West: 8
Regular season series (Suns leads 1-0)
Nov 15, 2023 Minnesota 115, Phoenix 133
Apr 5, 2024 Minnesota at Phoenix
Apr 14, 2024 Phoenix at Minnesota


CURRENT MATCHUP

(3) Oklahoma City (50-22)
Games remaining: 10 (5 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 8, vs. West: 4

(6) Dallas (43-29)
Games remaining: 10 (4 Home, 6 Away)
vs. +.500: 7, vs. West: 6
Regular season series (Thunder lead 2-1)
Dec 2, 2023 Oklahoma City 126, Dallas 120
Feb 10, 2024 Oklahoma City 111, Dallas 146
Mar 14, 2024 Dallas 119, Oklahoma City 126
Apr 14, 2024 Dallas at Oklahoma City


CURRENT MATCHUP

(4) LA (45-27)
Games remaining: 10 (6 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 7, vs. West: 7

(5) New Orleans (44-28)
Games remaining: 10 (6 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 8, vs. West: 7
Regular season series (Pelicans leads 3-1)
Nov 24, 2023 New Orleans 116, LA 106
Jan 5, 2024 LA 111, New Orleans 95
Feb 7, 2024 New Orleans 117, LA 106
Mar 15, 2024 LA 104, New Orleans 112


Lottery Bound

(9) Los Angeles (41-32)
Games remaining: 9 (3 Home, 6 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. West: 4

(10) Golden State (38-34)
Games remaining: 10 (4 Home, 6 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. West: 9

(11) Houston (37-35)
Games remaining: 10 (4 Home, 6 Away)
vs. +.500: 7, vs. West: 8

(12) Utah (29-44)
Games remaining: 9 (4 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 9, vs. West: 8

(13) Memphis (24-49)
Games remaining: 9 (5 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 6, vs. West: 3

(14) Portland (19-54)
Games remaining: 9 (3 Home, 6 Away)
vs. +.500: 7, vs. West: 4

(15) San Antonio (17-56)
Games remaining: 9 (5 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 7, vs. West: 6


Glossary

In the event two or more teams are tied in the standings, a series of tiebreakers are applied to determine which team receives the higher seeding.

Two-Team Tiebreaker:
1. Better record in head-to-head games
2. Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
3. Higher winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division)
4. Higher winning percentage in conference games
5. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
6. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in opposite conference
7. Higher point differential between points scored and points allowed
Three-Team Tiebreaker:
1. Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
2. Best head-to-head winning percentage among all teams tied
3. Highest winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division)
4. Highest winning percentage in conference games
5. Highest winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
6. Highest point differential between points scored and points allowed

Dboss, Worry is my middle name! No matter how much my husband and son tell me to stop it is embedded in me. Personally, after the last few weeks I have had with some family issues, I always say, Thank God for the Celtics, over the years they have brought me thru some really tough times. So, I will take your advice and put the worries aside. Thanks!!! I spoke with Berlin after that game he had popped on, he said that there could be no surgery on his back so physical therapy was his next step. I hope he is well. No Matty????

MAGIC NUMBERS AS OF, PRE-GAMES, 3/31/24:

Boston beat Nwalins.


3/31/24 games of interest:

Cleveland @ Denver

OKC @ NY

Chicago @ Minny


MAGIC NUMBERS (COMBINATION OF CELTIC WINS AND OPPONENT'S LOSSES TOTALING THE NUMBER).  8 GAMES LEFT FOR US:

Play-in Berth clinched.
Playoff Berth clinched.
#4 Seed, and a homecourt series, clinched.
#3 Seed, clinched.
#2 Seed, clinched
#1 Seed in East - Clinched



CELTICS MAGIC NUMBERS
Overall 1-seed: 3
1-seed: Clinched (March 26)
2-seed: Clinched (March 21)
3-seed: Clinched (March 20)
4-seed: Clinched (March 18)
Playoffs: Clinched (March 14)
Play-in: Clinched (February 27)


Bob
MY NOTE:  We need to go no worse than 3-5 in our remaining 8 games.

Minny and OKC are tied @ 51-22.  Because the H2H record vs OKC won't be settled until late 4/3 we need to assume they win in Boston and own that tiebreaker.  Therefore, we need to end up with the better record, not just tie.  We own the tiebreakers vs Minny.  16 losses for us, if we lose 5 of 8 that leaves us with 21 losses, one less than OKC.  Therefore the MN vs OKC is 3.  The MN vs Minny is 1 because we can tie them and still be #1 overall.  16 losses + 6 more = 22, 2 games left, we could split those two and still be #1 IF Minny comes out on top in the West.  Denver is 1 game behind them in the loss column.  Our MN vs Denver is the same as vs OKC since they already own the H2H tiebreaker.  


.

https://www.espn.com/nba/playoffs/matchups


Eastern Conference

CURRENT MATCHUP

(1) Boston (58-16)
Games remaining: 8 (6 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. East: 5

(Eight) Philadelphia (39-35)
Games remaining: 8 (4 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 5
Regular season series (Celtics lead 3-1)
Nov 8, 2023 Boston 103, Philadelphia 106
Nov 15, 2023 Boston 117, Philadelphia 107
Dec 1, 2023 Philadelphia 119, Boston 125
Feb 27, 2024 Philadelphia 99, Boston 117


CURRENT MATCHUP

(2) Milwaukee (47-27)
Games remaining: 8 (5 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 6

(7) Miami (40-33)
Games remaining: 9 (5 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 7
Regular season series (Bucks lead 2-1)
Oct 30, 2023 Miami 114, Milwaukee 122
Nov 28, 2023 Milwaukee 131, Miami 124
Feb 13, 2024 Miami 123, Milwaukee 97


CURRENT MATCHUP

(3) Cleveland (45-29)
Games remaining: 8 (3 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 2

(6) Indiana (42-33)
Games remaining: 7 (4 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 6
Regular season series (Pacers leads 2-1)
Oct 28, 2023 Indiana 125, Cleveland 113
Nov 3, 2023 Cleveland 116, Indiana 121
Mar 18, 2024 Cleveland 108, Indiana 103
Apr 12, 2024 Indiana at Cleveland


CURRENT MATCHUP

(4) New York Knicks (44-29)
Games remaining: 9 (4 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 7

(5) Orlando (43-31)
Games remaining: 8 (3 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 5
Regular season series (Magic leads 3-1)
Dec 29, 2023 New York 108, Orlando 117
Jan 15, 2024 Orlando 98, New York 94
Feb 14, 2024 New York 100, Orlando 118
Mar 8, 2024 Orlando 74, New York 98


Lottery Bound

(9) Chicago (35-39)
Games remaining: 8 (3 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 7
(10) Atlanta (34-40)
Games remaining: 8 (3 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 5
(11) Brooklyn (29-45)
Games remaining: 8 (5 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 6, vs. East: 6
(12) Toronto (23-50)
Games remaining: 9 (4 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 7, vs. East: 7
(13) Charlotte (18-55)
Games remaining: 9 (6 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 7, vs. East: 5
(14) Washington (14-60)
Games remaining: 8 (5 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 5
(15) Detroit (13-61)
Games remaining: 8 (2 Home, 6 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. East: 4


Western Conference

CURRENT MATCHUP

(1) Minnesota (51-22)
Games remaining: 9 (6 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. West: 5

(Eight) Sacramento (42-31)
Games remaining: 9 (5 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 6, vs. West: 6
Regular season series (Kings leads 2-1)
Nov 24, 2023 Sacramento 124, Minnesota 111
Dec 23, 2023 Minnesota 110, Sacramento 98
Mar 1, 2024 Sacramento 124, Minnesota 120


CURRENT MATCHUP

(2) Oklahoma City (51-22)
Games remaining: 9 (4 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 7, vs. West: 3

(7) Phoenix (43-31)
Games remaining: 8 (4 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 8, vs. West: 7
Regular season series (Thunder lead 3-0)
Nov 12, 2023 Oklahoma City 111, Phoenix 99
Mar 3, 2024 Oklahoma City 118, Phoenix 110
Mar 29, 2024 Phoenix 103, Oklahoma City 128


CURRENT MATCHUP

(3) Denver (51-23)
Games remaining: 8 (4 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. West: 6

(6) Dallas (44-29)
Games remaining: 9 (4 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 6, vs. West: 5
Regular season series (Nuggets lead 2-1)
Nov 3, 2023 Dallas 114, Denver 125
Dec 18, 2023 Dallas 104, Denver 130
Mar 17, 2024 Denver 105, Dallas 107


CURRENT MATCHUP

(4) LA (46-27)
Games remaining: 9 (6 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 6, vs. West: 7

(5) New Orleans (45-29)
Games remaining: 8 (4 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 6, vs. West: 7
Regular season series (Pelicans leads 3-1)
Nov 24, 2023 New Orleans 116, LA 106
Jan 5, 2024 LA 111, New Orleans 95
Feb 7, 2024 New Orleans 117, LA 106
Mar 15, 2024 LA 104, New Orleans 112


Lottery Bound

(9) Los Angeles (41-33)
Games remaining: 8 (3 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 4
(10) Golden State (39-34)
Games remaining: 9 (4 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. West: 9
(11) Houston (38-35)
Games remaining: 9 (4 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 7, vs. West: 7
(12) Utah (29-45)
Games remaining: 8 (3 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 8, vs. West: 7
(13) Memphis (24-50)
Games remaining: 8 (5 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. West: 3
(14) Portland (19-55)
Games remaining: 8 (3 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 6, vs. West: 4
(15) San Antonio (18-56)
Games remaining: 8 (4 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 6, vs. West: 6


Glossary
In the event two or more teams are tied in the standings, a series of tiebreakers are applied to determine which team receives the higher seeding.

Two-Team Tiebreaker:
1. Better record in head-to-head games
2. Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
3. Higher winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division)
4. Higher winning percentage in conference games
5. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
6. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in opposite conference
7. Higher point differential between points scored and points allowed
Three-Team Tiebreaker:
1. Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
2. Best head-to-head winning percentage among all teams tied
3. Highest winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division)
4. Highest winning percentage in conference games
5. Highest winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
6. Highest point differential between points scored and points allowed


Bob


.

Come on, Bobh,

You left off a game of interest to the Celtics...LAL@BKN.  You get several passes alone because of this thread, though!!  Keep up the good work!

db

P.S. Well, it didn't work out anyway. LOL won. They still suck.

dbrown4 wrote:Come on, Bobh,

You left off a game of interest to the Celtics...LAL@BKN.  You get several passes alone because of this thread, though!!  Keep up the good work!

db

P.S.  Well, it didn't work out anyway.  LOL won.  They still suck.  

DBrown,

You need to remember the Lakers before you can forget them.  I just don't give a shite about them, or anybody else for that matter, besides the Celtics.  When we play the Lakers 2X/year I care about the Lakers.  When we play them in the Finals I care about the Lakers.  Other than that, though, it's Celtics Uber Alles, and doom on each and every team that gets in front of us on the way to #18.  Once we eliminated Philly I never mentioned them again, did I?   If Embiid comes back in time for the playoffs, and the Sixers are our 1st round opponent, I'll talk about Philly again and if Philly isn't our opponent I won't.  I may post something in the "Around the League" thread for the overall benefit of the board but I, personally, won't care. It's all about 18.


Bob


.

MAGIC NUMBERS AS OF, PRE-GAMES, 4/1/24:

Denver thrashed Cleveland.  Thanks for nothing, Cavs.

OKC beat NY by 1 in NY.

Chicago beat Minny.  This ties Minny with Denver in the loss column, OKC is the leader.


4/1/24 games of interest:

Celtics @ Hornets



MAGIC NUMBERS (COMBINATION OF CELTIC WINS AND OPPONENT'S LOSSES TOTALING THE NUMBER).  8 GAMES LEFT FOR US:

Play-in Berth clinched.
Playoff Berth clinched.
#4 Seed, and a homecourt series, clinched.
#3 Seed, clinched.
#2 Seed, clinched
#1 Seed in East - Clinched



CELTICS MAGIC NUMBERS
Overall 1-seed: 3 (OKC)
1-seed: Clinched (March 26)
2-seed: Clinched (March 21)
3-seed: Clinched (March 20)
4-seed: Clinched (March 18)
Playoffs: Clinched (March 14)
Play-in: Clinched (February 27)


Bob
MY NOTE:  We need to go no worse than 3-5 in our remaining 8 games.

OKC is the current leader @ 52-22.  Because the H2H record vs OKC won't be settled until late 4/3 we need to assume they win in Boston and own that tiebreaker.  Therefore, we need to end up with the better record, not just tie.  We own the tiebreakers vs Minny.  16 losses for us, if we lose 5 of 8 that leaves us with 21 losses, one less than OKC.  Therefore the MN vs OKC is 3.  The MN vs Minny is 1 because we can tie them and still be #1 overall.  16 losses + 6 more = 22, 2 games left, we could split those two and still be #1 IF Minny comes out on top in the West.  Denver is 1 game behind them in the loss column.  Our MN vs Denver is the same as vs OKC since they already own the H2H tiebreaker.  


.

Bobh

The West is still Razor close with the top 3 teams playing leapfrog from one game to the next

OKC 52-22
Denver 52-23
Minny 51-23

OKC is the healthiest among the 3 teams as Murray has been nursing a sore knee with the Nuggets and KAT remains out for the T'Wolves.  

The Thunder however have the most difficult remaining schedule.
@Sixers, Celtics, Pacers and Hornets  while home vs Kings, Spurs, Bucks and Mavs
that adds up to 6 out of their remaining 8 games against playoff level teams and 3/4 are on the road.

Denver has the easiest schedule with only 2 games remaining against competitive teams (@Clippers and H. T'Wolves)

Minnesota has 4 tough games left (@Suns, Lakers and Nuggets and H Suns)  

So it is my opinion that the West will finish (1) Denver, (2) OKC and (3) Minnesota.

The only game that matters for the Celtics is tonight at Charlotte.  That is a potential trap game.  They have a healthy roster and nothing to lose at this point in the season.  They beat us once in OT this season.

I say get the win on the road tonight and then 6 out of our remaining 7 games are at home.

MAGIC NUMBERS AS OF, POST-GAMES, 4/1/24:

We won in Charlotte


4/2/24 games of interest:

OKC @ Philly

Houston @ Minny

San Antonio @ Denver


MAGIC NUMBERS (COMBINATION OF CELTIC WINS AND OPPONENT'S LOSSES TOTALING THE NUMBER).  7 GAMES LEFT FOR US:

Play-in Berth clinched.
Playoff Berth clinched.
#4 Seed, and a homecourt series, clinched.
#3 Seed, clinched.
#2 Seed, clinched
#1 Seed in East - Clinched



CELTICS MAGIC NUMBERS
Overall 1-seed: 2 (OKC)
1-seed: Clinched (March 26)
2-seed: Clinched (March 21)
3-seed: Clinched (March 20)
4-seed: Clinched (March 18)
Playoffs: Clinched (March 14)
Play-in: Clinched (February 27)


Bob
MY NOTE:  We need to go no worse than 2-5 in our remaining 7 games.  6 of our final 7 games are @ home.  A victory over OKC in Boston on Wednesday would clinch our final Magic Number.

OKC is the current leader @ 52-22.  Because the H2H record vs OKC won't be settled until late 4/3 we need to assume they win in Boston and own that tiebreaker.  Therefore, we need to end up with the better record, not just tie.  We own the tiebreakers vs Minny.  16 losses for us, if we lose 5 of 8 that leaves us with 21 losses, one less than OKC.  Therefore the MN vs OKC is 3.  The MN vs Minny is 1 because we can tie them and still be #1 overall.  16 losses + 6 more = 22, 2 games left, we could split those two and still be #1 IF Minny comes out on top in the West.  Denver is 1 game behind them in the loss column.  Our MN vs Denver is the same as vs OKC since they already own the H2H tiebreaker.  

.

I expect that Boston will roll out everyone that can walk tomorrow night.

I envisioned a win to clinch the #1 seed throughout the playoffs and record win #60

After that, I can see CJ going to splitting (center, wing and guard) the rest of the way. We play our last game on Sunday April 14 and the playoffs begin on April 20th.

Would you rather face the Sixers or the Heat in round 1? Bring on the Heat. Lets get this over and done with.

Sweep the Heat. That's all I'm sayin'. Looks like while playing PHI would be easier since we always seem to have their number, we need to end the "Playoff" MIA nonsense with a good, old fashioned 4-0 sweeper. Ask and you shall receive.

Of course, everyone everywhere is counting out an ATL 8th seed. I'll take that one as well if Plan A doesn't work out.

db

MAGIC NUMBERS AS OF, POST-GAMES, 4/2/24:

OKC LOST to Philly.

Minny won.

Denver won.

OKC, Minny and Denver are now tied @ 23 losses.  Denver has a game in hand.


4/3/24 games of interest:

OKC @ Boston.  With OKC's loss in Philly last night the MN drops to 1.  A win tonight still clinches #1, nothing changed there.  We just want to win to make a statement (and because winning is more fun than losing).


MAGIC NUMBERS (COMBINATION OF CELTIC WINS AND OPPONENT'S LOSSES TOTALING THE NUMBER).  7 GAMES LEFT FOR US:

Play-in Berth clinched.
Playoff Berth clinched.
#4 Seed, and a homecourt series, clinched.
#3 Seed, clinched.
#2 Seed, clinched
#1 Seed in East - Clinched



CELTICS MAGIC NUMBERS
Overall 1-seed: 1 (Denver, OKC and Minny)
1-seed: Clinched (March 26)
2-seed: Clinched (March 21)
3-seed: Clinched (March 20)
4-seed: Clinched (March 18)
Playoffs: Clinched (March 14)
Play-in: Clinched (February 27)


Bob
MY NOTE:  We need to go no worse than 1-6 in our remaining 7 games.  6 of our final 7 games are @ home.  



.

https://www.espn.com/nba/playoffs/matchups

AS OF 4/2/24


Eastern Conference

CURRENT MATCHUP

(1) Boston (59-16)
Games remaining: 7 (6 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. East: 4

(Eight) Philadelphia (41-35)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. East: 4
Regular season series (Celtics lead 3-1)
Nov 8, 2023 Boston 103, Philadelphia 106
Nov 15, 2023 Boston 117, Philadelphia 107
Dec 1, 2023 Philadelphia 119, Boston 125
Feb 27, 2024 Philadelphia 99, Boston 117


CURRENT MATCHUP

(2) Milwaukee (47-28)
Games remaining: 7 (5 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 5

(7) Miami (42-33)
Games remaining: 7 (4 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. East: 5
Regular season series (Bucks lead 2-1)
Oct 30, 2023 Miami 114, Milwaukee 122
Nov 28, 2023 Milwaukee 131, Miami 124
Feb 13, 2024 Miami 123, Milwaukee 97


CURRENT MATCHUP

(3) Cleveland (46-30)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. East: 2

(6) Indiana (43-33)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 5
Regular season series (Pacers leads 2-1)
Oct 28, 2023 Indiana 125, Cleveland 113
Nov 3, 2023 Cleveland 116, Indiana 121
Mar 18, 2024 Cleveland 108, Indiana 103
Apr 12, 2024 Indiana at Cleveland


CURRENT MATCHUP

(4) Orlando (44-31)
Games remaining: 7 (2 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 5

(5) New York Knicks (44-31)
Games remaining: 7 (3 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 6
Regular season series (Magic lead 3-1)
Dec 29, 2023 New York 108, Orlando 117
Jan 15, 2024 Orlando 98, New York 94
Feb 14, 2024 New York 100, Orlando 118
Mar 8, 2024 Orlando 74, New York 98


Lottery Bound

(9) Chicago (36-40)
Games remaining: 6 (2 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. East: 6
(10) Atlanta (35-40)
Games remaining: 7 (3 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 4
(11) Brooklyn (29-47)
Games remaining: 6 (4 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. East: 5
(12) Toronto (23-52)
Games remaining: 7 (2 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 6
(13) Charlotte (18-57)
Games remaining: 7 (4 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 4
(14) Washington (15-61)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 3
(15) Detroit (13-62)
Games remaining: 7 (1 Home, 6 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. East: 4


Western Conference

CURRENT MATCHUP

(1) Denver (53-23)
Games remaining: 6 (2 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. West: 5

(Eight) Phoenix (44-31)
Games remaining: 7 (4 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 7, vs. West: 6
Regular season series (Suns leads 2-1)
Dec 1, 2023 Denver 119, Phoenix 111
Mar 5, 2024 Phoenix 117, Denver 107
Mar 27, 2024 Phoenix 104, Denver 97


CURRENT MATCHUP

(2) Minnesota (52-23)
Games remaining: 7 (4 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 4

(7) Sacramento (44-31)
Games remaining: 7 (3 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. West: 4
Regular season series (Kings leads 2-1)
Nov 24, 2023 Sacramento 124, Minnesota 111
Dec 23, 2023 Minnesota 110, Sacramento 98
Mar 1, 2024 Sacramento 124, Minnesota 120


CURRENT MATCHUP

(3) Oklahoma City (52-23)
Games remaining: 7 (4 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. West: 3

(6) New Orleans (45-30)
Games remaining: 7 (3 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. West: 6
Regular season series (Thunder lead 2-1)
Nov 1, 2023 New Orleans 110, Oklahoma City 106
Jan 26, 2024 Oklahoma City 107, New Orleans 83
Mar 26, 2024 Oklahoma City 119, New Orleans 112


CURRENT MATCHUP

(4) LA (47-28)
Games remaining: 7 (6 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. West: 6

(5) Dallas (45-30)
Games remaining: 7 (4 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 3
Regular season series (Clippers lead 2-1)
Nov 10, 2023 LA 126, Dallas 144
Nov 25, 2023 Dallas 88, LA 107
Dec 20, 2023 LA 120, Dallas 111


Lottery Bound
(9) Los Angeles (43-33)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 4
(10) Golden State (41-34)
Games remaining: 7 (3 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 7
(11) Houston (38-37)
Games remaining: 7 (3 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. West: 5
(12) Utah (29-47)
Games remaining: 6 (2 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 6, vs. West: 6
(13) Memphis (25-50)
Games remaining: 7 (5 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. West: 3
(14) Portland (19-56)
Games remaining: 7 (3 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. West: 4
(15) San Antonio (18-58)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 4


Glossary
In the event two or more teams are tied in the standings, a series of tiebreakers are applied to determine which team receives the higher seeding.

Two-Team Tiebreaker:
1. Better record in head-to-head games
2. Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
3. Higher winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division)
4. Higher winning percentage in conference games
5. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
6. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in opposite conference
7. Higher point differential between points scored and points allowed
Three-Team Tiebreaker:
1. Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
2. Best head-to-head winning percentage among all teams tied
3. Highest winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division)
4. Highest winning percentage in conference games
5. Highest winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
6. Highest point differential between points scored and points allowed


Bob
MY NOTE:  Philly has 2 games left vs >500 teams while Miami has 4.  With Embiid back this might make a difference.  Not many games to go, down 2 in the loss column but Embiid is a game changer for Philly.


.

MAGIC NUMBERS AS OF, POST-GAMES, 4/2/24:

CONGRATULATIONS TO THE BOSTON CELTICS FOR CLINCHING THE #1 SEED ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE PLAYOFFS!


4/3/24 games of interest:

NONE, anymore.


MAGIC NUMBERS (COMBINATION OF CELTIC WINS AND OPPONENT'S LOSSES TOTALING THE NUMBER).  6 GAMES LEFT FOR US:

Play-in Berth clinched.
Playoff Berth clinched.
#4 Seed, and a homecourt series, clinched.
#3 Seed, clinched.
#2 Seed, clinched
#1 Seed in East - Clinched
#1 Seed Overall - Clinched


CELTICS MAGIC NUMBERS
Overall 1-seed: Clinched (April 3)
1-seed: Clinched (March 26)
2-seed: Clinched (March 21)
3-seed: Clinched (March 20)
4-seed: Clinched (March 18)
Playoffs: Clinched (March 14)
Play-in: Clinched (February 27)


Bob


.

And Kudos to BobH for tracking the progress so diligently.

What a fun season so far.

Yes absolutely thank you to all of Bob's mind-bending efforts to keep all the options and every possible outcome in front of us. Your work here is done!! This thread has been greatly appreciated!

db

The Magic Number updates are done.  All that is left now are playoff matchups.  Luckily the work for this is done for me by ESPN.


https://www.espn.com/nba/playoffs/matchups


Eastern Conference


CURRENT MATCHUP

(1) Boston (60-16)
Games remaining: 6 (5 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 4

(Eight) Philadelphia (41-35)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. East: 4
Regular season series (Celtics lead 3-1)
Nov 8, 2023 Boston 103, Philadelphia 106
Nov 15, 2023 Boston 117, Philadelphia 107
Dec 1, 2023 Philadelphia 119, Boston 125
Feb 27, 2024 Philadelphia 99, Boston 117


CURRENT MATCHUP

(2) Milwaukee (47-29)
Games remaining: 6 (4 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 5

(7) Indiana (43-34)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 4
Regular season series (Pacers leads 4-1)
Nov 9, 2023 Milwaukee 124, Indiana 126
Dec 7, 2023 Indiana 128, Milwaukee 119
Dec 13, 2023 Indiana 126, Milwaukee 140
Jan 1, 2024 Indiana 122, Milwaukee 113
Jan 3, 2024 Milwaukee 130, Indiana 142


CURRENT MATCHUP

(3) Cleveland (46-31)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 2

(6) Miami (42-33)
Games remaining: 7 (4 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. East: 5
Regular season series (Heat leads 3-1)
Nov 22, 2023 Miami 129, Cleveland 96
Dec 8, 2023 Cleveland 111, Miami 99
Mar 20, 2024 Miami 107, Cleveland 104
Mar 24, 2024 Cleveland 84, Miami 121


CURRENT MATCHUP

(4) Orlando (45-31)
Games remaining: 6 (2 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. East: 5

(5) New York Knicks (44-31)
Games remaining: 7 (3 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 6
Regular season series (Magic lead 3-1)
Dec 29, 2023 New York 108, Orlando 117
Jan 15, 2024 Orlando 98, New York 94
Feb 14, 2024 New York 100, Orlando 118
Mar 8, 2024 Orlando 74, New York 98


Lottery Bound

(9) Chicago (36-40)
Games remaining: 6 (2 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. East: 6
(10) Atlanta (36-40)
Games remaining: 6 (2 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 3
(11) Brooklyn (30-47)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 4
(12) Toronto (23-53)
Games remaining: 6 (2 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. East: 6
(13) Charlotte (18-58)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 4
(14) Washington (15-62)
Games remaining: 5 (2 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. East: 3
(15) Detroit (13-63)
Games remaining: 6 (1 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. East: 3


Western Conference

CURRENT MATCHUP

(1) Minnesota (53-23)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 4

(Eight) Sacramento (44-31)
Games remaining: 7 (3 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. West: 4
Regular season series (Kings leads 2-1)
Nov 24, 2023 Sacramento 124, Minnesota 111
Dec 23, 2023 Minnesota 110, Sacramento 98
Mar 1, 2024 Sacramento 124, Minnesota 120


CURRENT MATCHUP

(2) Denver (53-23)
Games remaining: 6 (2 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. West: 5

(7) New Orleans (45-31)
Games remaining: 6 (2 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 6
Regular season series (Nuggets lead 2-1)
Nov 6, 2023 New Orleans 116, Denver 134
Nov 17, 2023 Denver 110, New Orleans 115
Jan 12, 2024 New Orleans 113, Denver 125


CURRENT MATCHUP

(3) Oklahoma City (52-24)
Games remaining: 6 (4 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 3

(6) Phoenix (45-31)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 6, vs. West: 6
Regular season series (Thunder lead 3-0)
Nov 12, 2023 Oklahoma City 111, Phoenix 99
Mar 3, 2024 Oklahoma City 118, Phoenix 110
Mar 29, 2024 Phoenix 103, Oklahoma City 128


CURRENT MATCHUP

(4) LA (47-28)
Games remaining: 7 (6 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. West: 6

(5) Dallas (45-30)
Games remaining: 7 (4 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 3
Regular season series (Clippers lead 2-1)
Nov 10, 2023 LA 126, Dallas 144
Nov 25, 2023 Dallas 88, LA 107
Dec 20, 2023 LA 120, Dallas 111


Lottery Bound

(9) Los Angeles (44-33)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 4
(10) Golden State (41-34)
Games remaining: 7 (3 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 7
(11) Houston (38-37)
Games remaining: 7 (3 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. West: 5
(12) Utah (29-47)
Games remaining: 6 (2 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 6, vs. West: 6
(13) Memphis (26-50)
Games remaining: 6 (5 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 3
(14) Portland (20-56)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. West: 4
(15) San Antonio (18-58)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 4
Glossary
In the event two or more teams are tied in the standings, a series of tiebreakers are applied to determine which team receives the higher seeding.

Two-Team Tiebreaker:
1. Better record in head-to-head games
2. Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
3. Higher winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division)
4. Higher winning percentage in conference games
5. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
6. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in opposite conference
7. Higher point differential between points scored and points allowed
Three-Team Tiebreaker:
1. Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
2. Best head-to-head winning percentage among all teams tied
3. Highest winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division)
4. Highest winning percentage in conference games
5. Highest winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
6. Highest point differential between points scored and points allowed


Bob
MY NOTE:  It's interesting to see the regular season records of the matchups.  #6 Miami is up 3-1 vs #3 Cleveland.  #3 OKC is up 3-0 vs #6 Phoenix.  Will playoff teams start playing to try and get the opponents they want and vice versa?  Is that why SGA didn't play last night?  He has a right quad injury, but we've seen Jaylen play through those and last night was a potential Finals preview.  Or were they thinking about dropping to 3rd and facing Phoenix?  Crazy conspiracies.  They're not just for politics anymore...


.

Cameron Tabatabaie @CTabatabaie
about 47 minutes ago
The numbers keep vacillating, but Basketball Reference believes it's basically a four-way toss up for who the Celtics will play in Round One of the playoffs As of Friday, 4/5, here are the likelihoods: PHI: 23.1% MIA: 21.8% ATL: 20.5 % CHI: 19.6 %



Bobby Manning
Bobby Manning @RealBobManning
about 6 hours ago
#Pacers back in 6th with 5 games left: OKC, MIA, TOR, CLE, ATL. They’re 0.5 above Miami and their last game decides tiebreaker. MIA (0.5 above PHI): HOU, IND, ATL, DAL, TOR, TOR. They’ll own tiebreaker over PHI due to division record. 3 way tie will be decided by IND/MIA too.


Bob


.

https://www.espn.com/nba/playoffs/matchups


AS OF PRE-GAMES 4/5/24


Eastern Conference

CURRENT MATCHUP

(1) Boston (60-16)
Games remaining: 6 (5 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 4

(8 ) Philadelphia (42-35)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 1, vs. East: 3
Regular season series (Celtics lead 3-1)
Nov 8, 2023 Boston 103, Philadelphia 106
Nov 15, 2023 Boston 117, Philadelphia 107
Dec 1, 2023 Philadelphia 119, Boston 125
Feb 27, 2024 Philadelphia 99, Boston 117


CURRENT MATCHUP

(2) Milwaukee (47-29)
Games remaining: 6 (4 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 5

(7) Miami (42-34)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. East: 4
Regular season series (Bucks lead 2-1)
Oct 30, 2023 Miami 114, Milwaukee 122
Nov 28, 2023 Milwaukee 131, Miami 124
Feb 13, 2024 Miami 123, Milwaukee 97


CURRENT MATCHUP

(3) Cleveland (46-31)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 2

(6) Indiana (43-34)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 4
Regular season series (Pacers leads 2-1)
Oct 28, 2023 Indiana 125, Cleveland 113
Nov 3, 2023 Cleveland 116, Indiana 121
Mar 18, 2024 Cleveland 108, Indiana 103
Apr 12, 2024 Indiana at Cleveland


CURRENT MATCHUP

(4) Orlando (45-31)
Games remaining: 6 (2 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 5

(5) New York Knicks (45-31)
Games remaining: 6 (2 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. East: 6
Regular season series (Magic lead 3-1)
Dec 29, 2023 New York 108, Orlando 117
Jan 15, 2024 Orlando 98, New York 94
Feb 14, 2024 New York 100, Orlando 118
Mar 8, 2024 Orlando 74, New York 98


Lottery Bound

(9) Chicago (36-40)
Games remaining: 6 (2 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. East: 6
(10) Atlanta (36-41)
Games remaining: 5 (2 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. East: 3
(11) Brooklyn (30-47)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 4
(12) Toronto (23-53)
Games remaining: 6 (2 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. East: 6
(13) Charlotte (18-58)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 4
(14) Washington (15-62)
Games remaining: 5 (2 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. East: 3
(15) Detroit (13-63)
Games remaining: 6 (1 Home, 5 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. East: 3


Western Conference

CURRENT MATCHUP

(1) Minnesota (53-23)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 4

(8 ) Sacramento (44-32)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 4
Regular season series (Kings leads 2-1)
Nov 24, 2023 Sacramento 124, Minnesota 111
Dec 23, 2023 Minnesota 110, Sacramento 98
Mar 1, 2024 Sacramento 124, Minnesota 120


CURRENT MATCHUP

(2) Denver (53-24)
Games remaining: 5 (2 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 1, vs. West: 4

(7) New Orleans (45-31)
Games remaining: 6 (2 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 6
Regular season series (Nuggets lead 2-1)
Nov 6, 2023 New Orleans 116, Denver 134
Nov 17, 2023 Denver 110, New Orleans 115
Jan 12, 2024 New Orleans 113, Denver 125


CURRENT MATCHUP

(3) Oklahoma City (52-24)
Games remaining: 6 (4 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 3

(6) Phoenix (45-31)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 6, vs. West: 6
Regular season series (Thunder lead 3-0)
Nov 12, 2023 Oklahoma City 111, Phoenix 99
Mar 3, 2024 Oklahoma City 118, Phoenix 110
Mar 29, 2024 Phoenix 103, Oklahoma City 128


CURRENT MATCHUP

(4) LA (48-28)
Games remaining: 6 (5 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. West: 5

(5) Dallas (46-30)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. West: 3
Regular season series (Clippers lead 2-1)
Nov 10, 2023 LA 126, Dallas 144
Nov 25, 2023 Dallas 88, LA 107
Dec 20, 2023 LA 120, Dallas 111

Lottery Bound

(9) Los Angeles (44-33)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 4
(10) Golden State (42-34)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. West: 6
(11) Houston (38-38)
Games remaining: 6 (2 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 4
(12) Utah (29-47)
Games remaining: 6 (2 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. West: 6
(13) Memphis (26-50)
Games remaining: 6 (5 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 3
(14) Portland (20-56)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 4
(15) San Antonio (18-58)
Games remaining: 6 (3 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 4


Glossary

In the event two or more teams are tied in the standings, a series of tiebreakers are applied to determine which team receives the higher seeding.

Two-Team Tiebreaker:
1. Better record in head-to-head games
2. Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
3. Higher winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division)
4. Higher winning percentage in conference games
5. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
6. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in opposite conference
7. Higher point differential between points scored and points allowed

Three-Team Tiebreaker:
1. Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
2. Best head-to-head winning percentage among all teams tied
3. Highest winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division)
4. Highest winning percentage in conference games
5. Highest winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
6. Highest point differential between points scored and points allowed


Bob


.

Bobh,

I probably missed this in the thread, but are these match-up based upon the actual seeding on the day the article is posted or the most likely opponent(s)?

db

dbrown4 wrote:Bobh,

I probably missed this in the thread, but are these match-up based upon the actual seeding on the day the article is posted or the most likely opponent(s)?

db

dbrown,

I'd say 'both'.

They are updated daily, so they are the actual seeding on the day the article is posted. However, the assumption in this ESPN (not mine!) analysis is that none of the play-in teams advance to the playoffs, which is not a lock. Therefore this has assumptions built into the conclusions as well.

Assuming no play-in teams advance and make the playoffs then this article are the actual seedings each day.


Bob


.

https://www.espn.com/nba/playoffs/matchups


AS OF PRE-GAMES 4/6/24


Eastern Conference

CURRENT MATCHUP

(1) Boston (61-16)
Games remaining: 5 (4 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. East: 4

(8 ) Philadelphia (42-35)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 1, vs. East: 3
Regular season series (Celtics lead 3-1)
Nov 8, 2023 Boston 103, Philadelphia 106
Nov 15, 2023 Boston 117, Philadelphia 107
Dec 1, 2023 Philadelphia 119, Boston 125
Feb 27, 2024 Philadelphia 99, Boston 117


CURRENT MATCHUP

(2) Milwaukee (47-30)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. East: 4

(7) Miami (43-34)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. East: 4
Regular season series (Bucks lead 2-1)
Oct 30, 2023 Miami 114, Milwaukee 122
Nov 28, 2023 Milwaukee 131, Miami 124
Feb 13, 2024 Miami 123, Milwaukee 97


CURRENT MATCHUP

(3) Cleveland (46-31)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 2

(6) Indiana (44-34)
Games remaining: 4 (2 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. East: 4
Regular season series (Pacers leads 2-1)
Oct 28, 2023 Indiana 125, Cleveland 113
Nov 3, 2023 Cleveland 116, Indiana 121
Mar 18, 2024 Cleveland 108, Indiana 103
Apr 12, 2024 Indiana at Cleveland


CURRENT MATCHUP

(4) Orlando (45-32)
Games remaining: 5 (2 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 4

(5) New York Knicks (45-32)
Games remaining: 5 (2 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. East: 5
Regular season series (Magic lead 3-1)
Dec 29, 2023 New York 108, Orlando 117
Jan 15, 2024 Orlando 98, New York 94
Feb 14, 2024 New York 100, Orlando 118
Mar 8, 2024 Orlando 74, New York 98


Lottery Bound
(9) Chicago (37-40)
Games remaining: 5 (1 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 5
(10) Atlanta (36-41)
Games remaining: 5 (2 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. East: 3
(11) Brooklyn (30-47)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 4
(12) Toronto (24-53)
Games remaining: 5 (2 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. East: 5
(13) Charlotte (19-58)
Games remaining: 5 (2 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. East: 3
(14) Washington (15-63)
Games remaining: 4 (1 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. East: 3
(15) Detroit (13-64)
Games remaining: 5 (1 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. East: 3


Western Conference

CURRENT MATCHUP

(1) Minnesota (53-24)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. West: 3

(8 ) Sacramento (44-33)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. West: 4
Regular season series (Kings leads 2-1)
Nov 24, 2023 Sacramento 124, Minnesota 111
Dec 23, 2023 Minnesota 110, Sacramento 98
Mar 1, 2024 Sacramento 124, Minnesota 120


CURRENT MATCHUP

(2) Denver (53-24)
Games remaining: 5 (2 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 1, vs. West: 4

(7) New Orleans (45-32)
Games remaining: 5 (1 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 5
Regular season series (Nuggets lead 2-1)
Nov 6, 2023 New Orleans 116, Denver 134
Nov 17, 2023 Denver 110, New Orleans 115
Jan 12, 2024 New Orleans 113, Denver 125


CURRENT MATCHUP

(3) Oklahoma City (52-25)
Games remaining: 5 (4 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. West: 3

(6) Phoenix (46-31)
Games remaining: 5 (2 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 5, vs. West: 5
Regular season series (Thunder lead 3-0)
Nov 12, 2023 Oklahoma City 111, Phoenix 99
Mar 3, 2024 Oklahoma City 118, Phoenix 110
Mar 29, 2024 Phoenix 103, Oklahoma City 128


CURRENT MATCHUP

(4) LA (49-28)
Games remaining: 5 (4 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. West: 4

(5) Dallas (47-30)
Games remaining: 5 (2 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. West: 2
Regular season series (Clippers lead 2-1)
Nov 10, 2023 LA 126, Dallas 144
Nov 25, 2023 Dallas 88, LA 107
Dec 20, 2023 LA 120, Dallas 111


Lottery Bound
(9) Los Angeles (44-33)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 4
(10) Golden State (42-35)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. West: 5
(11) Houston (38-39)
Games remaining: 5 (1 Home, 4 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. West: 4
(12) Utah (29-48)
Games remaining: 5 (2 Home, 3 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 5
(13) Memphis (27-50)
Games remaining: 5 (4 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 3
(14) Portland (21-56)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 4, vs. West: 4
(15) San Antonio (19-58)
Games remaining: 5 (3 Home, 2 Away)
vs. +.500: 3, vs. West: 3
Glossary
In the event two or more teams are tied in the standings, a series of tiebreakers are applied to determine which team receives the higher seeding.

Two-Team Tiebreaker:
1. Better record in head-to-head games
2. Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
3. Higher winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division)
4. Higher winning percentage in conference games
5. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
6. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in opposite conference
7. Higher point differential between points scored and points allowed
Three-Team Tiebreaker:
1. Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
2. Best head-to-head winning percentage among all teams tied
3. Highest winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division)
4. Highest winning percentage in conference games
5. Highest winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
6. Highest point differential between points scored and points allowed


Bob
MY NOTE:  OKC and Minny lost last night, Denver was idle.  Minny is now tied with Denver, OKC 1 game behind.  If you look at the matchups this morning vs yesterday there's no change.  Minny is still matched up with Sacto, with Sacto having a 2-1 H2H edge, but with 1 more game @ Denver that will go a long way to deciding this seed.  OKC is still matched up with Phoenix, where OKC has a 3-0 H2H edge, so they want this spot.  Denver is 2-1 vs NOP, so they're liking that matchup as well.  HOWEVER, Denver's H2H record vs Sacto is 1-3.  Denver's H2H record vs Minny is currently 1-2 with 1 more to play in Denver.  IF Denver and Minny tie, and Denver beats Minny in game 4, Minny is #1 because they have the better intra-division record (Minny, Denver and OKC are in the same division).  IF Minny loses their #1 seed with 5 games left and Denver wins their division then Denver would face Sacto in the playoffs (assuming no play-in team advances).  With a 1-3 record vs Sacto will Mike Malone go for home court through the WC playoffs (the thin air of Mile High is quite a home court advantage) or will he try for the seed that gets him a team he is more comfortable beating?


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Denver needs home court in the West.  Denver is a dominant home team (31-8 ) but not so great on the road (22-16)

SGA will be out @ Charlotte  even though they have been sobered up after dropping 3 straight on the road.

Quite an interesting battle between the top 3 teams as well as the 7,8,9 and 10 spots.  Don't look now but the Lakers are probably going to catch the Kings but they are headed to the Play-in.  The 7 and 8 spots at least give them 2 opportunities to advance.

Also the Suns (6th place) may not be able to stay there.  Remaining games home vas Nola and Clippers while away at Clippers, Kings and T'Wolves.

Bobby Manning @RealBobManning
about 1 hour ago
Daily #Celtics playoff probabilities: #76ers stay in front - now 25.9% #Hawks 20.3% #Bulls 19.7% with one of them inevitable to come within one game of Boston after the 9-10 game #Heat 17.3% #Pacers 10.8%...#Magic 3.9% #Knicks 1.8%. MIA-IND tomorrow has HUGE implications.


Bob
MY NOTE: These numbers include the play-in teams, so it's more complex/sophisticated (?) than the bigger post that does not.


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