A Public Health Announcement about Coronavirus

My question to all is if the leaders of China were affected by 19? Bill Gates spoke about this in 2015 and how to destroy our economy. My wife met a gentleman yesterday who is a Biophysicist and he was adamant that it was "Bio warfare".

I guess not! Thanks for bring it to my attention!

bob i really enjoy the board. i read daily so every one please keep posting. im sorry its just getting a little scary up here. vermont is a very old state. i feel like i know all of you from all the years at bdc. im missing watching tatum grow and learn how to deal with new looks. i still remember the first time watching him play. he is just so smooth. he flows. jaylen is finally putting it together. instead of tony allen hes growing into a complete player. its been fun seeing gordon return to his former self. i still cringe every time i think about that. kemba has been a great fit for this group. whats more fun than winning. he loves it. i hope we can finish the season at some point but we'll see. it gives us fans something to look forward to.

greenmtnboy wrote:bob i really enjoy the board. i read daily so every one please keep posting. im sorry its just getting a little scary up here. vermont is a very old state. i feel like i know all of you from all the years at bdc. im missing watching tatum grow and learn how to deal with new looks. i still remember the first time watching him play. he is just so smooth. he flows. jaylen is finally putting it together. instead of tony allen hes growing into a complete player. its been fun seeing gordon return to his former self. i still cringe every time i think about that. kemba has been a great fit for this group. whats more fun than winning. he loves it. i hope we can finish the season at some point but we'll see. it gives us fans something to look forward to.

It has been great seeing the growth of Tatum and Jaylen, my youngest son and I would go back and forth for 2 years now who’s better, he said Tatum, I was/am a Jaylen guy. Well today I told him you were right, right now JT is better, can’t believe the groove he got in since the all star game. Being the best player on the floor in match ups with perennial 1st team all NBA guys. Right now there’s no player in the league I would trade Tatum for. He is only going to get better and stronger as will JB, who will add more skills. They do many similar attacking things both ends, and are also different because JT is smoother, more polished he does it seemingly effortless, where Jaylen has to out effort, use his attributes to over power you. So great having 2 young 2 way studs.....

Cow, I would trade JT for Giannis. That's the only NBA player I like better. JB is also a favorite of mine, but he's not Giannis.

On the health news front, here's this:

https://www.westernjournal.com/study-finds-unexpected-coronavirus-symptoms-first-sign-infection-digestive-issues/

worcester wrote:Cow, I would trade JT for Giannis. That's the only NBA player I like better. JB is also a favorite of mine, but he's not Giannis.

On the health news front, here's this:

https://www.westernjournal.com/study-finds-unexpected-coronavirus-symptoms-first-sign-infection-digestive-issues/

Right worse, might be the only one, obviously wouldn’t trade him for AD, Lebron or Kawhi. Only other player you would have to think hard about is Luka, a one man wrecking crew, magician with the ball who Tatum can shoot and defend better than....

I live Giannis.....he is just at the tip of the iceberg and is only going to get better unless health steps in. I might consider this trade, but I love watching JT too, and he plays so well with Jaylen
All conjecture, he is either staying in Milwaukee or going to GSW

bob


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You have been locked up too long, if I thought I was going nuts, you now make me feel good!!!!!!

Please don't shoot the messenger, but here are two potentially devastating announcements.

1.  WHO says the US may become the next coronavirus epicenter.

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/489179-who-cautions-us-could-become-next-epicenter-of


2.  A CDC report that coronavirus lived for 17 days on surfaces on a cruise ship AFTER the passengers left.

.https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/cdc-coronavirus-survived-in-princess-cruise-cabins-up-to-17-days-after-passengers-left.html



bob
MY NOTE:  PLEASE stay home.  Use FaceTime or WhatsApp for virtual Happy Hours and visits with friends and family.  The faster we bite the bullet and lick this the faster we can get back to normal and, hopefully, basketball.

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US only, per CDC

3/20/20:  15,219 cases, 201 deaths.

3/23/20:  33,404 cases, 400 deaths.

Coronavirus doubles every 3 days, as you can see.

STAY HOME AND HELP FLATTEN THE CURVE!!


bob


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Here in NY, currently the hardest hit state, they're now projecting 14 - 21 days until peak. Unfortunately, with no clear way to get enough hospital rooms and ventilators to meet demand. Early information we got on severity was certainly way off.

Areas in California and Washington, around Seattle, seem to be running close.

If other states are trailing slightly, Adam Silver's speculation about June if any further NBA ball is played still sounds remotely possible. Played in empty arenas.

In all likelihood, I think the next big NBA action will be the draft, and hopefully a '20 - '21 season starting on time.

Fingers crossed for everyone's health. Followed by a return of the sports we all enjoy.

I am more convinced now than ever.

The NBA season is over.  The staggered nature of infections in 50 states at different stages of the pandemic will serve to add a long tail to the length of time this country will be vulnerable.

There seems to be no consistency in testing across state lines.  For example there have only been around 5500 tests done in GA with 1026 confirmed infection.  GA is the 8th or 9th most populist state.  Clearly grossly inadequate testing.  

NYC is now the hot spot but you have areas that are probably 2 months behind.  Resources needed to fight this thing remain in doubt.  

The virus will be harder to contain until people maintain seperation from each other over an extended period of time and testing expands to includes those that have  no symptoms.

NBA games cannot resume until we get well beyond the curve across the country.  That looks like a 4-6 month process at best.  Too many people in this country do not take responsibility for their behavior and our elected officials live on different planets.

Does anyone know if it’s true that hot humid weather is good for fighting the disease?

dboss wrote: Too many people in this country do not take responsibility for their behavior and our elected officials live on different planets.

Let's see... Doesn't name or favor a specific party, doesn't name names individually...

I would submit he's purely stating facts.

I would also go as far as to award the quote of the day on this one.

Might be a candidate for quote of the year.

I think Germany's wurst kase scenario will be a widespread incidence of constipation.

cowens/oldschool wrote:Does anyone know if it’s true that hot humid weather is good for fighting the disease?

It should, but some studies were inconclusive so at least the virulogist from Charite (Virology Institute in Berlin) has been quoted twice saying it might not be as affected from warmer weather as hoped and that it might not even be seasonal.

But that was 2 weeks ago.

Also link to one of the press clippings (be warned it is in German):
"Virologist warns: Spring will not limit the spread"
https://www.stuttgarter-zeitung.de/inhalt.coronavirus-im-sommer-virologe-warnt-fruehjahr-wird-ausbreitung-kaum-stoppen.6e36bb15-1964-448a-b30d-63984a3e2b77.html

The virus is no joke for the risk groups. If left unchecked it will decimate the age group above 60-65 and it has been reported a lot of younger people are being affected in Italy as well.

Stay safe and help to limit the spread.

Vankisa wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:Does anyone know if it’s true that hot humid weather is good for fighting the disease?

It should, but some studies were inconclusive so at least the virulogist from Charite (Virology Institute in Berlin) has been quoted twice saying it might not be as affected from warmer weather as hoped and that it might not even be seasonal.

But that was 2 weeks ago.

Also link to one of the press clippings (be warned it is in German):
"Virologist warns: Spring will not limit the spread"
https://www.stuttgarter-zeitung.de/inhalt.coronavirus-im-sommer-virologe-warnt-fruehjahr-wird-ausbreitung-kaum-stoppen.6e36bb15-1964-448a-b30d-63984a3e2b77.html

The virus is no joke for the risk groups. If left unchecked it will decimate the age group above 60-65 and it has been reported a lot of younger people are being affected in Italy as well.

Stay safe and help to limit the spread.

Thanks V

My wife is from China, she has been in touch with a lot of her friends and thank god they all survived, she believes the hot weather will help kill it. On another positive note saw that 95% of people tested are negative....

For the first time I can say, "Thank God for negative people."

I think there are too many "experts" giving their thoughts on this, I just read in our local paper that the so called experts said that it would level off in our county by August. UGH, we will all
be nuts by then.
Glad to hear all is safe with your wife's friends Cowens, be safe yourself, I haven't left the house except to go to the hospital for two and a half weeks. Now they want me to go to a clinic to get my blood tested so I do not have to walk into the hospital. Fine with me as long as it is fas.

Rosalie

Here's some good news. I agree with the perspective that fewer people get infected than we feared.





Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.
By Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya
March 24, 2020 6:21 pm ET
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A line at an emergency room in Brooklyn, N.Y., March 19.
A line at an emergency room in Brooklyn, N.Y., March 19.
PHOTO: ANDREW KELLY/REUTERS
If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.

Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

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The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.


Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.

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Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.


In Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the government to perform widespread testing. In a sample of nearly 2,000 entirely asymptomatic people, researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over 1%. Iceland’s first case was reported on Feb. 28, weeks behind the U.S. It’s plausible that the proportion of the U.S. population that has been infected is double, triple or even 10 times as high as the estimates from Iceland. That also implies a dramatically lower fatality rate.

The best (albeit very weak) evidence in the U.S. comes from the National Basketball Association. Between March 11 and 19, a substantial number of NBA players and teams received testing. By March 19, 10 out of 450 rostered players were positive. Since not everyone was tested, that represents a lower bound on the prevalence of 2.2%. The NBA isn’t a representative population, and contact among players might have facilitated transmission. But if we extend that lower-bound assumption to cities with NBA teams (population 45 million), we get at least 990,000 infections in the U.S. The number of cases reported on March 19 in the U.S. was 13,677, more than 72-fold lower. These numbers imply a fatality rate from Covid-19 orders of magnitude smaller than it appears.

How can we reconcile these estimates with the epidemiological models? First, the test used to identify cases doesn’t catch people who were infected and recovered. Second, testing rates were woefully low for a long time and typically reserved for the severely ill. Together, these facts imply that the confirmed cases are likely orders of magnitude less than the true number of infections. Epidemiological modelers haven’t adequately adapted their estimates to account for these factors.


The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.

This does not make Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is a far less severe problem than one that kills two million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide decisions now is critical. We don’t know the true infection rate in the U.S. Antibody testing of representative samples to measure disease prevalence (including the recovered) is crucial. Nearly every day a new lab gets approval for antibody testing, so population testing using this technology is now feasible.

If we’re right about the limited scale of the epidemic, then measures focused on older populations and hospitals are sensible. Elective procedures will need to be rescheduled. Hospital resources will need to be reallocated to care for critically ill patients. Triage will need to improve. And policy makers will need to focus on reducing risks for older adults and people with underlying medical conditions.


A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.

Dr. Bendavid and Dr. Bhattacharya are professors of medicine at Stanford. Neeraj Sood contributed to this article.

This was forwarded to me by way of a friend.  It was written by an Assistant Professor at John Hopkins University.


* The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code.  (mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells.
* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own.  The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.
* The virus is very fragile;  the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat.  That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam).  By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.
* HEAT melts fat;  this is why it is so good to use water above 25 degrees Celsius for washing hands, clothes and everything.  In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.
* Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.
* Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.
* Oxygenated water helps long after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but you have to use it pure and it hurts your skin.
* NO BACTERICIDE SERVES.  The virus is not a living organism like bacteria;  they cannot kill what is not alive with anthobiotics, but quickly disintegrate its structure with everything said.
* NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or cloth.  While it is glued to a porous surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only between 3 hours (fabric and porous), 4 hours (copper, because it is naturally antiseptic; and wood, be
cause it removes all the moisture and does not let it peel off and disintegrates).  ), 24 hours (cardboard), 42 hours (metal) and 72 hours (plastic).  But if you shake it or use a feather duster, the virus molecules float in the air for up to 3 hours, and can lodge in your nose.
* The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold, or artificial as air conditioners in houses and cars.  They also need moisture to stay stable, and especially darkness.  Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it faster.
* UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks down the virus protein.  For example, to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect.  Be careful, it also breaks down collagen (which is protein) in the skin, eventually causing wrinkles and skin cancer.
* The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.
* Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break down the protective layer of fat.
* NO SPIRITS, NOR VODKA, serve.  The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol, and you need 65%.
* LISTERINE IF IT SERVES!  It is 65% alcohol.
* The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be.  The more open or naturally ventilated, the less.
* This is super said, but you have to wash your hands before and after touching mucosa, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc.  And when using the bathroom.
* You have to HUMIDIFY HANDS DRY from so much washing them, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks.  The thicker the moisturizer, the better.  * Also keep your NAILS SHORT so that the virus does not hide there.


bob


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Hi Worcester,

while I agree with the general premise this is not an end of the world epidemic, it seems some of the posted statistics are a bit thin or as I like to call them "focused" on a specific story.

I have never seen anywhere an estimation of transmission rate for Covid-19 lower than 2.0 (most say 2.5) and that is higher than normal flu so the premise that the "dark number" of infected is much much higher than discussed might be quite true.

The main issue I have is with the stated statistics - taking data from NBA players... a test in a single vilage in Italy that is then extrapolated to the entire region ... Showing results from the "hotbed" Iceland...

The real problem with Covid-19 comes with the high mortality and criticallity rate among the risk groups and the underlying implications for the healthcare systems which then creates a domino effect that could potentially raise the death rate for all manners of other unrelated to Corona health issues.

I think the best summary of how this could happen (that I have found ) is here:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

It is mostly written to explain why we need measure and which ones would be best, but also provides a good overview.

I do not put that high stock in the statistics that came out of China, but there are some good numbers now from Europe as well and I would like to share some of them with the board.
If you go to this site and click on "infografica giornaliera “Sorveglianza integrata COVID-19 in Italia” (pdf 1,5 Mb) - aggiornamento 25 marzo 2020" you will see a nicely summarized statistics of the epidemic in Italy (MAde by the "Italian CDC"):
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati

The table with mortality rates is lower left corner. I will let the numbers speak for themselves, but I want to add that what is described in the article you posted could and probably is true for the age groups of under 50-60. But the mortality rate and the number of critical cases in those age groups is much closer to normal influenza anyway. I do not believe the number of Corona infected people older than 60 is much higher than reported, so I do believe those mortality rates at the bottom of the table. Now multiply 20%+ with how many people above 70 live in the US. Or 5% with >60. And this is directly related to the problem of overwhelming the healthcare system as well.

Getting an education here.

Can't say our board members don't do some serious research.