Draft Pick #1 - 6
+13
Ram
steve3344
bobc33
swish
cowens/oldschool
Ktronic1
worcester
RosalieTCeltics
arambone
NYCelt
kdp59
dboss
bobheckler
17 posters
Page 5 of 8
Page 5 of 8 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
I think teams are being more thorough and open-minded than in the past. Everybody wants to know why they didn't rate Greek Freak higher.
I said Washington, which needed a SF, should draft GFreak over Otto Porter, but it was considered absurd. Otto Porter was already considered a lock for that #3 pick before Giannis even declared for the draft at 18 years old.
The fact is the mock draft websites like to "lock in" their draft rankings way too early. And they invent tiers to help them solidify their opinions.
So when Giannis and Dennis Schroeder and Rudy Gobert declared for the draft late in the game, and coming from completely off the radar screen, most everybody wasn't about to radically adjust their precious tiers and rankings.
Instead, they convinced themselves that Anthony Bennett, Victor Oladipi, Otto Porter, Cody Zeller, Alex Len, Nerlens Noel, and Ben McLemore were in Tier ONE, and everybody else was well below.
Look at what a steaming pile of turd that Tier ONE turned out to be, more or less.
When you ask me to predict where Thon Maker gets drafted, you're asking me whether I think GMs will have the mental flexibility and courage to adjust their draft rankings and tiers late in the game. Both are often in short supply, which is how your Lakers wimped out on drafting Porzingis and took D Russell. Because Russell and Okafor were "clearly in Tier ONE" according to most everybody.
I think Brad and Danny are smart, creative, and brave enough to stray from the rigid "conventional wisdom" that sets in like cement every year, but I'm not sure about Wyk the owner. He seems to be a people pleaser, and would rather please the public and their "conventional wisdom" rather than make them as unhappy as when Phil Jackson drafted Porzingis and Knicks fans lost their marbles. Lol.
So where exactly will Thon Maker be drafted? That's not even the right question. The question is how good will Maker be, and where will he be drafted in re-drafts in the years to come when people look back on the draft.
I said Washington, which needed a SF, should draft GFreak over Otto Porter, but it was considered absurd. Otto Porter was already considered a lock for that #3 pick before Giannis even declared for the draft at 18 years old.
The fact is the mock draft websites like to "lock in" their draft rankings way too early. And they invent tiers to help them solidify their opinions.
So when Giannis and Dennis Schroeder and Rudy Gobert declared for the draft late in the game, and coming from completely off the radar screen, most everybody wasn't about to radically adjust their precious tiers and rankings.
Instead, they convinced themselves that Anthony Bennett, Victor Oladipi, Otto Porter, Cody Zeller, Alex Len, Nerlens Noel, and Ben McLemore were in Tier ONE, and everybody else was well below.
Look at what a steaming pile of turd that Tier ONE turned out to be, more or less.
When you ask me to predict where Thon Maker gets drafted, you're asking me whether I think GMs will have the mental flexibility and courage to adjust their draft rankings and tiers late in the game. Both are often in short supply, which is how your Lakers wimped out on drafting Porzingis and took D Russell. Because Russell and Okafor were "clearly in Tier ONE" according to most everybody.
I think Brad and Danny are smart, creative, and brave enough to stray from the rigid "conventional wisdom" that sets in like cement every year, but I'm not sure about Wyk the owner. He seems to be a people pleaser, and would rather please the public and their "conventional wisdom" rather than make them as unhappy as when Phil Jackson drafted Porzingis and Knicks fans lost their marbles. Lol.
So where exactly will Thon Maker be drafted? That's not even the right question. The question is how good will Maker be, and where will he be drafted in re-drafts in the years to come when people look back on the draft.
arambone- Posts : 721
Join date : 2014-05-28
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
arambone wrote:Ram wrote:I think there are 12 names being considered as top 10 picks and the draft falls into three tiers in this range.
Tier 1: Simmons and Ingram, will be the top 2 for sure
Tier 2: Murray, Bender, Hield and Dunn, none will slip past pick #8
Tier 3: Brown, Poeltl, Ellenson, Skal, Davis, Korkmaz, Sabonis, Richardson and Chriss
Tier 3 is interesting. 6 crazy upside freshman + 18 year old Korkmaz and two guys close to their ceiling already in Poeltl and Sabonis who went head to head in the tourney with the shorter Sabonis dominating.
Brown could go as high as #3 to a team like Boston that needs more of a SG/SF type than a PG or pure SG. Ellenson, Skal and Chriss would all project as potentially great offensive bigs to pair with two way (but more defensive) studs like Anthony Davis, Valaciunas and Karl Anthony-Towns.
Skal and Richardson did a lot at the combine to show if you have 2-3 years of patience they may end up being just as good or better players as Bender and Hield.
As you can see, I feel Boston will be on the outside looking in with pick #16. Moving into the 10-13 range would ensure one of these all-important tier 3 guys and I really hope they can do it.
That tier system is simply wrong, in my opinion. You can't say a bench warmer in Israel is clearly above anybody. Even if the whole internet copies draft express and their campaign 4 Bender. And one dimensional shooters under 6'6" without elite athleticism are rarely in an elite tier with separation over two way players with star potential on both ends of the court.
Just my opinion.
Keep in mind Draft Express was confident that Skal was a top 2 talent, and he couldn't even succeed at the college level.
I don't want the Celtics to take Bender and in my post I said somebody like Richardson could be better than Hield (or Murray if his position is SG). But these are the tiers players will be going in in the draft.
I use a dozen mocks and my own scouting and the positional needs of franchises and it is pretty apparent at this point Bender will not fall out of the top 10 and those are the players most likely to go in the top 12. There is certainly a chance for players to be added to tier 2 and 3. Nobody is cracking tier 1.
Ram- Posts : 538
Join date : 2011-07-26
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
arambone wrote:I think teams are being more thorough and open-minded than in the past. Everybody wants to know why they didn't rate Greek Freak higher.
I said Washington, which needed a SF, should draft GFreak over Otto Porter, but it was considered absurd. Otto Porter was already considered a lock for that #3 pick before Giannis even declared for the draft at 18 years old.
The fact is the mock draft websites like to "lock in" their draft rankings way too early. And they invent tiers to help them solidify their opinions.
So when Giannis and Dennis Schroeder and Rudy Gobert declared for the draft late in the game, and coming from completely off the radar screen, most everybody wasn't about to radically adjust their precious tiers and rankings.
Instead, they convinced themselves that Anthony Bennett, Victor Oladipi, Otto Porter, Cody Zeller, Alex Len, Nerlens Noel, and Ben McLemore were in Tier ONE, and everybody else was well below.
Look at what a steaming pile of turd that Tier ONE turned out to be, more or less.
When you ask me to predict where Thon Maker gets drafted, you're asking me whether I think GMs will have the mental flexibility and courage to adjust their draft rankings and tiers late in the game. Both are often in short supply, which is how your Lakers wimped out on drafting Porzingis and took D Russell. Because Russell and Okafor were "clearly in Tier ONE" according to most everybody.
I think Brad and Danny are smart, creative, and brave enough to stray from the rigid "conventional wisdom" that sets in like cement every year, but I'm not sure about Wyk the owner. He seems to be a people pleaser, and would rather please the public and their "conventional wisdom" rather than make them as unhappy as when Phil Jackson drafted Porzingis and Knicks fans lost their marbles. Lol.
So where exactly will Thon Maker be drafted? That's not even the right question. The question is how good will Maker be, and where will he be drafted in re-drafts in the years to come when people look back on the draft.
Maker could easily become one of the 5 best players in this draft. If he looks great head to head against guys like Skal and Davis he will make his way into tier 3.
This is not a prediction of who will be the best pro players. It is a prediction, as of 5/17/16, of who will be falling where in the lottery.
Ram- Posts : 538
Join date : 2011-07-26
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
Bender will not fall out of the top 10
It's easy for mock draft sites to declare he's a top 10 pick despite being a bench warmer in Israel. It's entirely another thing for a team to actually use their valuable top 10 pick on the kid and hope he pans out in a few years.
Because there are plenty of alternatives, guys who are safer bets, and then there's Thon Maker who is a more athletic, more intense version of Bender. If you're going to roll the dice and pray to the gods, why not take the longer, more athletic, better ball handling, more intense version.
arambone- Posts : 721
Join date : 2014-05-28
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
To me, unless a guy is as good as Simmons on offense, I like elite athletes with a defensive mentality, high intangibles, and ability/potential to be two-way stars, not just one-way stars.
One way stars end up being synonymous with empty stats, unless the guy is Kevin Durant or Steph Curry.
To me, the guys with two way star potential and sky high intangibles that make it likely to actually happen are:
Ingram, Maker, Poeltl, Brown, and Dunn.
In my Tier One, I have Simmons over Dunn, and second on the list, and I leave Dunn off because he's not quite elite enough, and point guard doesn't have the positional value that the bigger positions do (SF, PF, C).
So Ingram, Simmons, Maker, Poeltl, and Brown are my tier one
with Dunn, Hield, and Murray after that.
Just my opinion, but there are likely to be two way players taken later in the draft that are likely to have as much overall impact on the game as one-way stars like Hield and Murray. Like Taurean Prince, for example.
One way stars end up being synonymous with empty stats, unless the guy is Kevin Durant or Steph Curry.
To me, the guys with two way star potential and sky high intangibles that make it likely to actually happen are:
Ingram, Maker, Poeltl, Brown, and Dunn.
In my Tier One, I have Simmons over Dunn, and second on the list, and I leave Dunn off because he's not quite elite enough, and point guard doesn't have the positional value that the bigger positions do (SF, PF, C).
So Ingram, Simmons, Maker, Poeltl, and Brown are my tier one
with Dunn, Hield, and Murray after that.
Just my opinion, but there are likely to be two way players taken later in the draft that are likely to have as much overall impact on the game as one-way stars like Hield and Murray. Like Taurean Prince, for example.
arambone- Posts : 721
Join date : 2014-05-28
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
Having 5 guys I'm high on means I might flip out if we get the 6th pick tonight, though one or two of my personal top 5 will likely still be there, so I guess no worries ...
arambone- Posts : 721
Join date : 2014-05-28
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
arambone wrote:I think teams are being more thorough and open-minded than in the past. Everybody wants to know why they didn't rate Greek Freak higher.
I said Washington, which needed a SF, should draft GFreak over Otto Porter, but it was considered absurd. Otto Porter was already considered a lock for that #3 pick before Giannis even declared for the draft at 18 years old.
The fact is the mock draft websites like to "lock in" their draft rankings way too early. And they invent tiers to help them solidify their opinions.
So when Giannis and Dennis Schroeder and Rudy Gobert declared for the draft late in the game, and coming from completely off the radar screen, most everybody wasn't about to radically adjust their precious tiers and rankings.
Instead, they convinced themselves that Anthony Bennett, Victor Oladipi, Otto Porter, Cody Zeller, Alex Len, Nerlens Noel, and Ben McLemore were in Tier ONE, and everybody else was well below.
Look at what a steaming pile of turd that Tier ONE turned out to be, more or less.
When you ask me to predict where Thon Maker gets drafted, you're asking me whether I think GMs will have the mental flexibility and courage to adjust their draft rankings and tiers late in the game. Both are often in short supply, which is how your Lakers wimped out on drafting Porzingis and took D Russell. Because Russell and Okafor were "clearly in Tier ONE" according to most everybody.
I think Brad and Danny are smart, creative, and brave enough to stray from the rigid "conventional wisdom" that sets in like cement every year, but I'm not sure about Wyk the owner. He seems to be a people pleaser, and would rather please the public and their "conventional wisdom" rather than make them as unhappy as when Phil Jackson drafted Porzingis and Knicks fans lost their marbles. Lol.
So where exactly will Thon Maker be drafted? That's not even the right question. The question is how good will Maker be, and where will he be drafted in re-drafts in the years to come when people look back on the draft.
The Lakers loved Porzingis and might have taken him if they didn't draft a power forward in Randle a year earlier.
I give the Lakers credit for having the guts to take a point guard over the easy pick, Okafor. Okafor was "conventional wisdom.'
It is a guard and wing league now.
I think Russell will do great under a Luke Walton offense compared to Byron Scott's offense, which made me often say to myself, "what type of offense is Byron running?"
tjmakz- Posts : 4278
Join date : 2010-05-19
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
tjmakz wrote:arambone wrote:I think teams are being more thorough and open-minded than in the past. Everybody wants to know why they didn't rate Greek Freak higher.
I said Washington, which needed a SF, should draft GFreak over Otto Porter, but it was considered absurd. Otto Porter was already considered a lock for that #3 pick before Giannis even declared for the draft at 18 years old.
The fact is the mock draft websites like to "lock in" their draft rankings way too early. And they invent tiers to help them solidify their opinions.
So when Giannis and Dennis Schroeder and Rudy Gobert declared for the draft late in the game, and coming from completely off the radar screen, most everybody wasn't about to radically adjust their precious tiers and rankings.
Instead, they convinced themselves that Anthony Bennett, Victor Oladipi, Otto Porter, Cody Zeller, Alex Len, Nerlens Noel, and Ben McLemore were in Tier ONE, and everybody else was well below.
Look at what a steaming pile of turd that Tier ONE turned out to be, more or less.
When you ask me to predict where Thon Maker gets drafted, you're asking me whether I think GMs will have the mental flexibility and courage to adjust their draft rankings and tiers late in the game. Both are often in short supply, which is how your Lakers wimped out on drafting Porzingis and took D Russell. Because Russell and Okafor were "clearly in Tier ONE" according to most everybody.
I think Brad and Danny are smart, creative, and brave enough to stray from the rigid "conventional wisdom" that sets in like cement every year, but I'm not sure about Wyk the owner. He seems to be a people pleaser, and would rather please the public and their "conventional wisdom" rather than make them as unhappy as when Phil Jackson drafted Porzingis and Knicks fans lost their marbles. Lol.
So where exactly will Thon Maker be drafted? That's not even the right question. The question is how good will Maker be, and where will he be drafted in re-drafts in the years to come when people look back on the draft.
The Lakers loved Porzingis and might have taken him if they didn't draft a power forward in Randle a year earlier.
I give the Lakers credit for having the guts to take a point guard over the easy pick, Okafor. Okafor was "conventional wisdom.'
It is a guard and wing league now.
I think Russell will do great under a Luke Walton offense compared to Byron Scott's offense, which made me often say to myself, "what type of offense is Byron running?"
made me often say to myself, "what type of offense is Byron running?"
The answer: offensive
steve3344- Posts : 4175
Join date : 2009-10-27
Age : 74
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
Flip Saunders (RIP) of the Wolves said he'd take Porzingis #1 if he had the guts. That was before the draft.
Towns looking the better prospect for sure, but Porzingis definitely a lot better on defense so far. Probably always will be with that length advantage.
Russell's low athleticism means low defensive ceiling as a guard. Sketchy work ethic means cross your fingers and hope for the best offensively.
A few scoring explosions last year means there's def room for hope.
Towns looking the better prospect for sure, but Porzingis definitely a lot better on defense so far. Probably always will be with that length advantage.
Russell's low athleticism means low defensive ceiling as a guard. Sketchy work ethic means cross your fingers and hope for the best offensively.
A few scoring explosions last year means there's def room for hope.
arambone- Posts : 721
Join date : 2014-05-28
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
draftexpress and mynbadraft.com have us taking Dragan Bender with #3.
nbadraft.net has us taking Buddy Hield with #3.
So, kiss Ingram and Simmons good-bye.
bob
.
nbadraft.net has us taking Buddy Hield with #3.
So, kiss Ingram and Simmons good-bye.
bob
.
bobheckler- Posts : 62620
Join date : 2009-10-28
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
Danny, in the post lottery press conference is saying he is taking the "best player available". A follow up question was "would you take a player that needed development time if he was the best player available?" and Danny said "yes, best player available. Unless someone can convince me otherwise, and nobody has yet, best player available".
bob
.
bob
.
bobheckler- Posts : 62620
Join date : 2009-10-28
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
To paraphrase Meatloaf, "Third out of three ain't bad." We could have done worse, much worse.
Now the question is, who does Danny consider to be the best player available?
Now the question is, who does Danny consider to be the best player available?
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
Normally 3rd pick would be a huge deal. This year the three guys I like most outside top 2 aren't even ranked top 5.
(Poeltl, Maker, Brown)
(Poeltl, Maker, Brown)
arambone- Posts : 721
Join date : 2014-05-28
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
Buddy Hield would seem to make perfect sense.
I'd like to see us get the wing who can shoot that's so badly needed first. That's Hield; he could really round out the guard rotation.
Maybe Jaylen Brown, as an alternative, is worthy of some debate. Brown needs to work on consistent effort at both ends, however, although his shooting was starting to come around in the second half of the season. Brown is the more physical of the two, and could play small or power forward with various lineups. The danger with Brown might be he never becomes more than another Jae Crowder. Nice player, but unspectacular.
I'd like to see us get the wing who can shoot that's so badly needed first. That's Hield; he could really round out the guard rotation.
Maybe Jaylen Brown, as an alternative, is worthy of some debate. Brown needs to work on consistent effort at both ends, however, although his shooting was starting to come around in the second half of the season. Brown is the more physical of the two, and could play small or power forward with various lineups. The danger with Brown might be he never becomes more than another Jae Crowder. Nice player, but unspectacular.
NYCelt- Posts : 10794
Join date : 2009-10-12
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
arambone wrote:Ram wrote:I don't see Poeltl as Pau Gasol at all.
I see his floor being about what Zaza Pachulia does. 20-24 mins, 7-9 points, 6-8 boards only a better shot-blocker and FG%. His ceiling is probably Andrew Bogut in his best seasons as a Buck. 32-34 minutes, 13-15 points, 9-11 boards, 2 blocks and 55% shooting.
In the modern NBA of small ball and speedy lineups and bigs who shoot 3's I would see Poeltl being more of what Bogut is now on the Warriors. A 22-24 minute guy who adds rebounding, rim-protection and a soft touch, def runs a bit better than 30+ year old multiple injuries Bogut but won't have quite as good a shooting % or blocks #'s.
Is that worth a pick in the 3-6 range? Probably not. Is it worth pick 16? Absolutely. But he will be gone by then. Another reason Danny really needs to try and get into the 10-13 range.
You're underselling his shooting touch, post moves, and athleticism. He Flies up and down the court, and around the court on D.
And before you say he's not worth a pick in the 3-6 range, you have to compare him head-to-head to other players. Poeltl is no worse than any of them. Bender is a wish and a prayer, and Hield and Murray have low defensive upside.
Poeltl has legit two way star potential, a very high ceiling, top positional value, and fills team need. Shooters can be found in every draft in the late first/second round. Athletic 7'1 guys with high motor and soft touch are very rare.
When I say he is a faster Bogut without quite his shooting % or shot-blocking (but still very good in those areas) I am not underselling him. It is assumed he is an above average athlete for his size with good touch/post moves and movement on D. That is because Bogut is all of those things. When I compare players I will say " --- does ---- better and the other guy does ---- better" and then assume people understand I think they are pretty close in everything else.
In the modern NBA I do not think Poeltl has "two way star potential". You think he can be a Pau Gasol type player? I see a Bogut at best type player and that is not an insult. 11 years ago such a player went #1 overall. Jakob would have been a top 5 pick a decade ago but now I see him as good value in the 8-12 range. Really not that big a drop. If the Celtics were to trade down from pick 3 into that range, adding another helpful asset in the process, I would have no complaints with picking Poeltl.
When you are dominated by Sabonis and shoot only 2-5 and grab only 4 boards and block only 1 shot in your last college game legit questions about what impact you will have in the pros are raised. But Hield also had a poor final game. Ingram scored 24 and 25 points his last two college games at age 18, not 20 or 22. We shall see.
Ram- Posts : 538
Join date : 2011-07-26
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
arambone wrote:In some drafts there is real separation between guys ranked 3-6 and guys ranked 7-10 or 7-14.
Then there are other drafts, like this one, where it's wide open after the top 2 picks. People like order to help consolidate their understanding of a draft, but that doesn't mean the players fall into any easy tiers.
Even the people who keep predicting Dragan Bender goes 3 admit that he could go 12th. That wouldn't happen if he was in a tier above other players.
It is very unlikely Bender drops to #12 unless he not only does nothing to improve his stock between now and the draft but actually hurts himself by not interviewing well or not going head to head in workouts against other top talent.
I have said several times I do not want the Celtics to draft Bender.
Yet it is very rare that players ALL MOCK DRAFTS and experts (not just Draft Express who you apparently dislike a lot) rank a player between 3-7 all year long and then that player falls out of the top 10 unless some new information arises.
When was the last time a guy who was expected all year to go top 5 (or at least top 7) drop out of the top 10 without a major red flag being raised?
Saric in 2014 slipped to 11 because he said he was going to stay overseas 1-2 years.
Drummond slipped to 9 in 2012. Royce White was probably never a top 7 consideration but his mental health issues certainly caused his drop. Sully had the back injury pop up at the combine and conditioning issues that caused a big drop for him. Brook Lopez fell to 10 and Joakim Noah to 9 when they were mocked top 5-7 all year. The C's unfortunately got Gerald Green who was supposed to be a lotto pick at #19 in 2005 but this was after he interviewed as immature and having a low bball IQ. He was never really mocked 3-7 but definitely in the 8-12 range.
I just don't see much evidence for guys mocked in that 3-7 range EVER falling out of the top 10 without some seriously negative new information arising.
Ram- Posts : 538
Join date : 2011-07-26
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
When you are dominated by Sabonis and shoot only 2-5 and grab only 4 boards and block only 1 shot in your last college game legit questions about what impact you will have in the pros are raised. But Hield also had a poor final game. Ingram scored 24 and 25 points his last two college games at age 18, not 20 or 22. We shall see.
Yup, I believe Hield went 1-7 from 3 in his last game, and Murray went 1-8 from 3 in his last game. Why do you put so much emphasis on one single game?
Most players who didn't win the NCAA Tourney would qualify as having had disappointing last games, which is why they were eliminated. Ingram definitely was a stud throughout, but he wasn't dealing with an injury like Poeltl was.
arambone- Posts : 721
Join date : 2014-05-28
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
Ram wrote:arambone wrote:In some drafts there is real separation between guys ranked 3-6 and guys ranked 7-10 or 7-14.
Then there are other drafts, like this one, where it's wide open after the top 2 picks. People like order to help consolidate their understanding of a draft, but that doesn't mean the players fall into any easy tiers.
Even the people who keep predicting Dragan Bender goes 3 admit that he could go 12th. That wouldn't happen if he was in a tier above other players.
It is very unlikely Bender drops to #12 unless he not only does nothing to improve his stock between now and the draft but actually hurts himself by not interviewing well or not going head to head in workouts against other top talent.
I have said several times I do not want the Celtics to draft Bender.
Yet it is very rare that players ALL MOCK DRAFTS and experts (not just Draft Express who you apparently dislike a lot) rank a player between 3-7 all year long and then that player falls out of the top 10 unless some new information arises.
When was the last time a guy who was expected all year to go top 5 (or at least top 7) drop out of the top 10 without a major red flag being raised?
Saric in 2014 slipped to 11 because he said he was going to stay overseas 1-2 years.
Drummond slipped to 9 in 2012. Royce White was probably never a top 7 consideration but his mental health issues certainly caused his drop. Sully had the back injury pop up at the combine and conditioning issues that caused a big drop for him. Brook Lopez fell to 10 and Joakim Noah to 9 when they were mocked top 5-7 all year. The C's unfortunately got Gerald Green who was supposed to be a lotto pick at #19 in 2005 but this was after he interviewed as immature and having a low bball IQ. He was never really mocked 3-7 but definitely in the 8-12 range.
I just don't see much evidence for guys mocked in that 3-7 range EVER falling out of the top 10 without some seriously negative new information arising.
The preseason mock drafts with Bender going top 5 made sense because improvement and development was expected from the 18 year old. The mocks that Still cling to their top 5 rankings of Bender after a terribly disappointing season on the bench strike me as a stubborn doubling down, and a refusal to adjust their perception in the face of a very disappointing season.
Just like the Thon Maker scouting reports that rely on 1 year old opinions are outdated, and were never adjusted to reflect the real and obvious improvements in Thon's game.
It's not like Bender's season on the bench ensured his top 5 position, regardless of what the mocks say. They all just follow one web site anyway, and pretend they actually scouted Bender.
Watch, word will start leaking out about how Bender isn't so popular in front offices these days, and the mock drafts will finally start reflecting reality a little better.
arambone- Posts : 721
Join date : 2014-05-28
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
arambone wrote:Ram wrote:arambone wrote:In some drafts there is real separation between guys ranked 3-6 and guys ranked 7-10 or 7-14.
Then there are other drafts, like this one, where it's wide open after the top 2 picks. People like order to help consolidate their understanding of a draft, but that doesn't mean the players fall into any easy tiers.
Even the people who keep predicting Dragan Bender goes 3 admit that he could go 12th. That wouldn't happen if he was in a tier above other players.
It is very unlikely Bender drops to #12 unless he not only does nothing to improve his stock between now and the draft but actually hurts himself by not interviewing well or not going head to head in workouts against other top talent.
I have said several times I do not want the Celtics to draft Bender.
Yet it is very rare that players ALL MOCK DRAFTS and experts (not just Draft Express who you apparently dislike a lot) rank a player between 3-7 all year long and then that player falls out of the top 10 unless some new information arises.
When was the last time a guy who was expected all year to go top 5 (or at least top 7) drop out of the top 10 without a major red flag being raised?
Saric in 2014 slipped to 11 because he said he was going to stay overseas 1-2 years.
Drummond slipped to 9 in 2012. Royce White was probably never a top 7 consideration but his mental health issues certainly caused his drop. Sully had the back injury pop up at the combine and conditioning issues that caused a big drop for him. Brook Lopez fell to 10 and Joakim Noah to 9 when they were mocked top 5-7 all year. The C's unfortunately got Gerald Green who was supposed to be a lotto pick at #19 in 2005 but this was after he interviewed as immature and having a low bball IQ. He was never really mocked 3-7 but definitely in the 8-12 range.
I just don't see much evidence for guys mocked in that 3-7 range EVER falling out of the top 10 without some seriously negative new information arising.
The preseason mock drafts with Bender going top 5 made sense because improvement and development was expected from the 18 year old. The mocks that Still cling to their top 5 rankings of Bender after a terribly disappointing season on the bench strike me as a stubborn doubling down, and a refusal to adjust their perception in the face of a very disappointing season.
Just like the Thon Maker scouting reports that rely on 1 year old opinions are outdated, and were never adjusted to reflect the real and obvious improvements in Thon's game.
It's not like Bender's season on the bench ensured his top 5 position, regardless of what the mocks say. They all just follow one web site anyway, and pretend they actually scouted Bender.
Watch, word will start leaking out about how Bender isn't so popular in front offices these days, and the mock drafts will finally start reflecting reality a little better.
Bender is only 18 years and five months old, is 7'1" and could grow another inch. Really hoped we'd get one of the top 2 picks but am slowly accepting the fact we might draft this talented beanpole. We just can't catch a break in the lottery. Philly had a worse chance (26.9%) of winning the lottery than we did (31.3%) of getting into the top 2 and they still got the # 1 pick and we didn't move up. At least we didn't drop down like we've done in most previous lotteries. I guess that's a minor victory with our history.
During halftime of tonight's game, Doug Collins was quoted as saying, "Great for Philadelphia to win the lottery. They deserve it!"
They deserve it? By tanking for the last four years?????????? Give me a break...
30 years ago this week we got the #2 pick (after moving up from the #5 position) and a month later were thrilled beyond belief to be able to select Len Bias. Then the next day happened. I still remember it like it was yesterday. Sat in front of my TV all day stunned.
steve3344- Posts : 4175
Join date : 2009-10-27
Age : 74
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
worcester wrote:To paraphrase Meatloaf, "Third out of three ain't bad." We could have done worse, much worse.
Now the question is, who does Danny consider to be the best player available?
wasn't that actually Jim Steinman?
kdp59- Posts : 5709
Join date : 2014-01-05
Age : 65
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
Yes it was Jim who wrote all the Meatloaf songs. Jim was my unofficial college roommate one year, unofficial in that he'd stay in our suite until the early hours of the a.m. and then crash on our living room couch.
Freshman year we all had to take Amherst's core curriculum which included courses in Calculus and Physics. Jim failed both and was called into the Freshmen Dean's office. I'm not telling tales out of school when I relate what happened then. Jim regularly told this story:
Dean: "Steinman, how can you possibly explain these grades, a 30 in Calculus and a 17 in Physics?"
Jim: "I was always better in math than I was in science."
Somehow Steinie talked his way into Independent Study for his final three years at Amherst, writing plays and music. He went on to compose many hit songs besides the mega Meatloaf albums (which made him the first multi-millionaire in our class at the tender age of 28), including Bonnie Tyler's "Holding Out for a Hero" and "Total Eclipse of the Heart", Air Supply's "Making Love Out of Nothing at All, and Celine Dion's "It's All Coming Back to Me Now."
Freshman year we all had to take Amherst's core curriculum which included courses in Calculus and Physics. Jim failed both and was called into the Freshmen Dean's office. I'm not telling tales out of school when I relate what happened then. Jim regularly told this story:
Dean: "Steinman, how can you possibly explain these grades, a 30 in Calculus and a 17 in Physics?"
Jim: "I was always better in math than I was in science."
Somehow Steinie talked his way into Independent Study for his final three years at Amherst, writing plays and music. He went on to compose many hit songs besides the mega Meatloaf albums (which made him the first multi-millionaire in our class at the tender age of 28), including Bonnie Tyler's "Holding Out for a Hero" and "Total Eclipse of the Heart", Air Supply's "Making Love Out of Nothing at All, and Celine Dion's "It's All Coming Back to Me Now."
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
worcester wrote:Yes it was Jim who wrote all the Meatloaf songs. Jim was my unofficial college roommate one year, unofficial in that he'd stay in our suite until the early hours of the a.m. and then crash on our living room couch.
Freshman year we all had to take Amherst's core curriculum which included courses in Calculus and Physics. Jim failed both and was called into the Freshmen Dean's office. I'm not telling tales out of school when I relate what happened then. Jim regularly told this story:
Dean: "Steinman, how can you possibly explain these grades, a 30 in Calculus and a 17 in Physics?"
Jim: "I was always better in math than I was in science."
Somehow Steinie talked his way into Independent Study for his final three years at Amherst, writing plays and music. He went on to compose many hit songs besides the mega Meatloaf albums (which made him the first multi-millionaire in our class at the tender age of 28), including Bonnie Tyler's "Holding Out for a Hero" and "Total Eclipse of the Heart", Air Supply's "Making Love Out of Nothing at All, and Celine Dion's "It's All Coming Back to Me Now."
Why can't I be smart and funny like that?
bob
.
bobheckler- Posts : 62620
Join date : 2009-10-28
Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6
arambone wrote:
The preseason mock drafts with Bender going top 5 made sense because improvement and development was expected from the 18 year old. The mocks that Still cling to their top 5 rankings of Bender after a terribly disappointing season on the bench strike me as a stubborn doubling down, and a refusal to adjust their perception in the face of a very disappointing season.
Just like the Thon Maker scouting reports that rely on 1 year old opinions are outdated, and were never adjusted to reflect the real and obvious improvements in Thon's game.
It's not like Bender's season on the bench ensured his top 5 position, regardless of what the mocks say. They all just follow one web site anyway, and pretend they actually scouted Bender.
Watch, word will start leaking out about how Bender isn't so popular in front offices these days, and the mock drafts will finally start reflecting reality a little better.
Again, I don't want Bender and in light of recent events at the combine would actually prefer Maker. Maker, Poeltl, Brown, Skal and Davis were my guys if the C's didn't land top 2.
My point is that guys ranked 3-7 rarely fall from the top 10 w/o major red flags and you failed to give me any examples to refute that. Warming the bench for one of the best teams in Europe has been dismissed by the scouts who have watched him all year. Maybe his refusal to work out against kids his age like Skal and Maker will finally drop the hammer on him as a top 10 pick? Who knows yet.
Did these mock draft sites turn you down for job or something b/c you went to an interview and called them all lazy and inaccurate frauds? I guess if the dozen or so mocks I read regularly are all just too embarrassed to drop the Dragan outside the top 10 you may have a point, but history does not support that argument.
Ram- Posts : 538
Join date : 2011-07-26
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