Re: Draft Pick #1 - 6

by **dboss** Thu May 12, 2016 9:48 pm

bobc33 wrote:Worcester please tell MikeDfromNP we look forward to him joining the Forum!

A name from the past. It will be great to converse with him again

Dboss

by **dboss** Thu May 12, 2016 10:07 pm

worcester wrote:Dboss, about this I totally agree -
"The best course of action is to build relentlessly through the draft." MikeDfromNP is soon to join our Forum (when he can get to a computer) and he makes that very argument eloquently. He recited to me a list of great NBA players selected in the 2009-2013 drafts from the 4th to 9th picks. Any team that had 2 or 3 of them would be in solid championship contention, and the Celts are primed to do just that. Think who our number 10 pick was in 1998 - Paul Pierce!

If Danny is patient and drafts well in the next 3 drafts (remember he'll have Brooklyn's low, low pick to use for the next three years) we could be in fabulous shape for years to come. Low price tags on those draft picks. Big upsides. And Danny can still sign decent free agents like Pau Gasol to fill present day needs. Danny, don't trade our low draft picks. Don't do it (unless some whacko GM offers us a steal of a deal).

About Poeltl, he'll be big enough, strong enough, and quick enough to be a decent NBA center. Good free throw % for a center already. Good defender. Good moves down low, close to the basket. But you're right. He shows nothing on video from more than very few feet away from the basket. Why is that? Did his videographer dislike compiling clips of outside shots? Did Poeltl simply not take and make many? Is he incapable of making outside shots? If the latter, then you're right, Dboss; Danny should wait until deeper in the draft to use a pick on him. For sure Danny will know the answers to those questions by draft day. He and his crew will watch ALL the film on any and all players in whom the Celts have any interest. Plus Danny will have those guys in for on court inspection.

W

That is exactly my thoughts. The Celtics are in a perfect position to get high draft picks. I am not an advocate of a quick fix. We enjoy watching this team compete and over the next 3 years including this year's June draft we have an amazing opportunity to add the cream of the crop.

With regards to the Poeltl discussion. I do not dislike him but we need a beast to patrol the lanes. We need a thug. And he is not good enough to use the 3rd pick in the draft on him. I have already presented my reasons for adding the very best offensive players. I like Bone's passion but he is like a bulldog on the porch with a pork chop in his mouth. Poeltl may be able to make outside shots. My feelings are that he is big and has relied on his size to score deep in the post. That would clog the paint. If he steps out why would anyone cover him. Is he a threat to knock down mid range shot? We do not know. Therefore I am not flushing a top pick down the drain potentially to find out. Besides we can get our shooters and a big anyways.

Dboss

by **arambone** Sat May 14, 2016 8:18 pm

Jakob Poeltl believes he can play like Pau Gasol

CHICAGO >> With the Lakers hoping to accelerate their rebuilding process, they spoke with one college prospect who believes he can emulate a certain player that once delivered them NBA championships.

“I can be a lot like Pau Gasol,” said University of Utah sophomore center Jakob Poeltl, who interviewed with the Lakers on Friday here at the NBA pre-draft combine. “He’s a guy who has good touch around the basket and is a very good passer. He can dribble the ball. He’s even stepping out and shooting 3’s. I hope I can get there too. He’s a winner and won championships. I can do that, too.”

Most NBA talent evaluators projected the 7-0, 235-pound Poeltl as a lottery pick last year. Poeltl stayed another year, however, because he “could get better.” After averaging 9.1 points and 6.8 rebounds his freshman season, Poeltl posted 17.2 points 9.1 rebounds per game his sophomore year.

“I knew I could dominate at the collegiate level,” Poeltl said. “I felt like the added pressure of being the go-to guy, I would perform being the go-to guy every single night. That would help me mature as a leader and as a basketball player. That would help me at the next level.”

Poeltl believes joining a rebuilding team, such as the Lakers, would also take him to the next level.

“Having a team that is rebuilding where I could be on the court and develop with my teammates would be a great,” Poeltl said. “Being on a young team and having a chance to develop would be great.”

Could Poeltl develop into another version of Gasol? Too early to say, obviously. During his six-year tenure with the Lakers (2008-14), Gasol won two NBA titles (2009, 2010) and established himself as one of the NBA’s most versatile big men.

Yet, Poeltl could already fill many needs the Lakers lack. They are not expected to retain unrestricted free agent Roy Hibbert, who posted a career low in points (5.9) and oversaw a defense that finished 27th in points allowed (106.9) as the Lakers’ starting center.

Meanwhile, Poeltl characterized himself as a versatile center. He also has spent most of his training perfecting his mid-range jumper.

“The league is getting smaller, so you have to be more versatile as a big,” Poeltl said. “You have to do more different stuff like step out a little bit, handle the ball and pass the ball. I feel like that’s something I’m pretty good at, so I’ll fit in pretty well.”

Should that happen, Poeltl would do more than just imitating Gasol. Poeltl would give his native Austria a towering hoops presence more noticeable than his tall frame. Poeltl would become the first NBA player from Austria, which has not qualified for EuroBasket since 1977.

“It’s a surreal feeling to know I’m probably going to be the first player from Austria to play in the NBA,” Poeltl said. “That’s something I’m very proud of, and I hope I can help Austrian basketball. Maybe there’s more kids that will play basketball and more money being put into the sport.”

Then, maybe players will try to emulate Poeltl with the same determination he wants to model his game after Gasol.

http://www.dailynews.com/sports/20160513/nba-draft-jakob-poeltl-believes-he-can-play-like-pau-gasol

by **dboss** Sat May 14, 2016 8:44 pm

The Lakers should draft him. It would be like shooting a torpedo into a sinking ship.

Dboss

by **steve3344** Tue May 17, 2016 10:07 am

http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics/ryan-not-nuts-about-simmons-or-ingram

by **arambone** Tue May 17, 2016 10:20 am

Here's a short video Chad Ford took of Brandon Ingram doing a 3 point shooting drill https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/status/732569106076028928

by **arambone** Tue May 17, 2016 10:21 am

by **bobheckler** Tue May 17, 2016 11:24 am

arambone wrote:

arambone,

Who are they?

bob

.

by **Ram** Tue May 17, 2016 11:57 am

I think there are 12 names being considered as top 10 picks and the draft falls into three tiers in this range.

Tier 1: Simmons and Ingram, will be the top 2 for sure

Tier 2: Murray, Bender, Hield and Dunn, none will slip past pick #8

Tier 3: Brown, Poeltl, Ellenson, Skal, Davis, Korkmaz, Sabonis, Richardson and Chriss

Tier 3 is interesting. 6 crazy upside freshman + 18 year old Korkmaz and two guys close to their ceiling already in Poeltl and Sabonis who went head to head in the tourney with the shorter Sabonis dominating.

Brown could go as high as #3 to a team like Boston that needs more of a SG/SF type than a PG or pure SG. Ellenson, Skal and Chriss would all project as potentially great offensive bigs to pair with two way (but more defensive) studs like Anthony Davis, Valaciunas and Karl Anthony-Towns.

Skal and Richardson did a lot at the combine to show if you have 2-3 years of patience they may end up being just as good or better players as Bender and Hield.

As you can see, I feel Boston will be on the outside looking in with pick #16. Moving into the 10-13 range would ensure one of these all-important tier 3 guys and I really hope they can do it.

by **Ram** Tue May 17, 2016 12:04 pm

I don't see Poeltl as Pau Gasol at all.

I see his floor being about what Zaza Pachulia does. 20-24 mins, 7-9 points, 6-8 boards only a better shot-blocker and FG%. His ceiling is probably Andrew Bogut in his best seasons as a Buck. 32-34 minutes, 13-15 points, 9-11 boards, 2 blocks and 55% shooting.

In the modern NBA of small ball and speedy lineups and bigs who shoot 3's I would see Poeltl being more of what Bogut is now on the Warriors. A 22-24 minute guy who adds rebounding, rim-protection and a soft touch, def runs a bit better than 30+ year old multiple injuries Bogut but won't have quite as good a shooting % or blocks #'s.

Is that worth a pick in the 3-6 range? Probably not. Is it worth pick 16? Absolutely. But he will be gone by then. Another reason Danny really needs to try and get into the 10-13 range.

by **arambone** Tue May 17, 2016 1:37 pm

bobheckler wrote:
arambone wrote:

arambone,

Who are they?

bob

.

Bob, that's Thon Maker on the left, Brandon Ingram on the right, and Jamal Murray in the middle.

I'm in Thon Maker frenzy mode. Some people called me a Thon Maker truther because I said the Celtics could take him top 5 outside the top 2.

Check this new vid out from the same workout as the photo above. How about a 7'1 Jeff Green with a KG motor...

Chad Ford ‏@chadfordinsider 2h2 hours ago
Thon Maker aced his interviews at Combine. Terrific workout today too. Would love to see him head-to-head with Skal
https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/status/732595731840806913

Jamal Murray made 25 of 27 nba threes zig zagging around the 3 point line in the same workout
https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/status/732588673699618817

by **arambone** Tue May 17, 2016 1:45 pm

Ram wrote:I don't see Poeltl as Pau Gasol at all.

I see his floor being about what Zaza Pachulia does. 20-24 mins, 7-9 points, 6-8 boards only a better shot-blocker and FG%. His ceiling is probably Andrew Bogut in his best seasons as a Buck. 32-34 minutes, 13-15 points, 9-11 boards, 2 blocks and 55% shooting.

In the modern NBA of small ball and speedy lineups and bigs who shoot 3's I would see Poeltl being more of what Bogut is now on the Warriors. A 22-24 minute guy who adds rebounding, rim-protection and a soft touch, def runs a bit better than 30+ year old multiple injuries Bogut but won't have quite as good a shooting % or blocks #'s.

Is that worth a pick in the 3-6 range? Probably not. Is it worth pick 16? Absolutely. But he will be gone by then. Another reason Danny really needs to try and get into the 10-13 range.

You're underselling his shooting touch, post moves, and athleticism. He Flies up and down the court, and around the court on D.

And before you say he's not worth a pick in the 3-6 range, you have to compare him head-to-head to other players. Poeltl is no worse than any of them. Bender is a wish and a prayer, and Hield and Murray have low defensive upside.

Poeltl has legit two way star potential, a very high ceiling, top positional value, and fills team need. Shooters can be found in every draft in the late first/second round. Athletic 7'1 guys with high motor and soft touch are very rare.

by **arambone** Tue May 17, 2016 1:49 pm

Ram wrote:I think there are 12 names being considered as top 10 picks and the draft falls into three tiers in this range.

Tier 1: Simmons and Ingram, will be the top 2 for sure

Tier 2: Murray, Bender, Hield and Dunn, none will slip past pick #8

Tier 3: Brown, Poeltl, Ellenson, Skal, Davis, Korkmaz, Sabonis, Richardson and Chriss

Tier 3 is interesting. 6 crazy upside freshman + 18 year old Korkmaz and two guys close to their ceiling already in Poeltl and Sabonis who went head to head in the tourney with the shorter Sabonis dominating.

Brown could go as high as #3 to a team like Boston that needs more of a SG/SF type than a PG or pure SG. Ellenson, Skal and Chriss would all project as potentially great offensive bigs to pair with two way (but more defensive) studs like Anthony Davis, Valaciunas and Karl Anthony-Towns.

Skal and Richardson did a lot at the combine to show if you have 2-3 years of patience they may end up being just as good or better players as Bender and Hield.

As you can see, I feel Boston will be on the outside looking in with pick #16. Moving into the 10-13 range would ensure one of these all-important tier 3 guys and I really hope they can do it.

That tier system is simply wrong, in my opinion. You can't say a bench warmer in Israel is clearly above anybody. Even if the whole internet copies draft express and their campaign 4 Bender. And one dimensional shooters under 6'6" without elite athleticism are rarely in an elite tier with separation over two way players with star potential on both ends of the court.

Just my opinion.

Keep in mind Draft Express was confident that Skal was a top 2 talent, and he couldn't even succeed at the college level.

by **arambone** Tue May 17, 2016 1:52 pm

In some drafts there is real separation between guys ranked 3-6 and guys ranked 7-10 or 7-14.

Then there are other drafts, like this one, where it's wide open after the top 2 picks. People like order to help consolidate their understanding of a draft, but that doesn't mean the players fall into any easy tiers.

Even the people who keep predicting Dragan Bender goes 3 admit that he could go 12th. That wouldn't happen if he was in a tier above other players.

by **worcester** Tue May 17, 2016 1:56 pm

Arambone, I thought you liked Thon Maker. Why would you mention him in the same sentence with Jeff "Break my heart" Green?

by **tjmakz** Tue May 17, 2016 1:57 pm

arambone wrote:
Ram wrote:I think there are 12 names being considered as top 10 picks and the draft falls into three tiers in this range.

Tier 1: Simmons and Ingram, will be the top 2 for sure

Tier 2: Murray, Bender, Hield and Dunn, none will slip past pick #8

Tier 3: Brown, Poeltl, Ellenson, Skal, Davis, Korkmaz, Sabonis, Richardson and Chriss

Tier 3 is interesting. 6 crazy upside freshman + 18 year old Korkmaz and two guys close to their ceiling already in Poeltl and Sabonis who went head to head in the tourney with the shorter Sabonis dominating.

Brown could go as high as #3 to a team like Boston that needs more of a SG/SF type than a PG or pure SG. Ellenson, Skal and Chriss would all project as potentially great offensive bigs to pair with two way (but more defensive) studs like Anthony Davis, Valaciunas and Karl Anthony-Towns.

Skal and Richardson did a lot at the combine to show if you have 2-3 years of patience they may end up being just as good or better players as Bender and Hield.

As you can see, I feel Boston will be on the outside looking in with pick #16. Moving into the 10-13 range would ensure one of these all-important tier 3 guys and I really hope they can do it.

That tier system is simply wrong, in my opinion. You can't say a bench warmer in Israel is clearly above anybody. Even if the whole internet copies draft express and their campaign 4 Bender. And one dimensional shooters under 6'6" without elite athleticism are rarely in an elite tier with separation over two way players with star potential on both ends of the court.

Just my opinion.

Keep in mind Draft Express was confident that Skal was a top 2 talent, and he couldn't even succeed at the college level.

Why do you have such an obsession against Draftexpress?
They are one of many organizations that cover basketball and the NBA Draft.
Draftexpress and many many other companies and websites put out mock drafts.
Some they get right, some they get wrong.
Why harp on draftexpress over and over and over again?

In looking at Bender and Maker's video's, I would draft Bender way before Maker.
Bender reminds me of Porzingis with better ball handling.
It's true that Bender hasn't played a lot of top talent, but who has Maker ever played against?
He played 5 years of HS basketball.

Why don't you list who you think will go in the top 10 so we can go back and critique your picks?

by **tjmakz** Tue May 17, 2016 1:59 pm

arambone wrote:In some drafts there is real separation between guys ranked 3-6 and guys ranked 7-10 or 7-14.

Then there are other drafts, like this one, where it's wide open after the top 2 picks. People like order to help consolidate their understanding of a draft, but that doesn't mean the players fall into any easy tiers.

Even the people who keep predicting Dragan Bender goes 3 admit that he could go 12th. That wouldn't happen if he was in a tier above other players.

Show us one mock draft where Bender is listed below 6.

Bender is definitely in tier 2.

by **worcester** Tue May 17, 2016 2:10 pm

TJ, You're pretty astute at assessing talent. What makes Bender so special? I have seen only one of his videos, 46 points against Bologna but he only shot one three in the video. A sweet shot nonetheless.. Why was he sitting on then bench in Israel?

Here are the weaknesses listed for him, although he's also considered the best Euro prospect:

Weaknesses: Not a great athlete … Limited leaping ability … Not explosive enough to play as a wing at the next level … At time he looks like a perimeter player trapped in a big man’s body … Stronger players can bully him on the post on both ends of the floor … Has to bulk up to play at the next level, and appears to have a naturally skinny bodytype … He may can do just about everything on the offensive end, but he can’t do anything at an elite level … Shooting mechanics aren’t always consistent … Changes release when opponents close out at him … Shot off the dribble needs work … Can’t create off the dribble … Has to work on his pull-up jumper … Depends too much on his right hand, which makes him predictable … Drives in straight line and can’t change direction or speed … Not strong enough to post up at a consistent level just yet … Other than a right hook, he doesn’t really have a counter move on the post … He needs to work on his footwork around the basket … He mainly turns from the left shoulder … Must learn to move better without the ball … Has problems finishing through contact … Not equally good at finishing at the rim with his left hand … At times he tries to do things too fast, which leads to either turnovers or bad shots … Post defense is a question mark … Not as good shot blocker as he should be for a player his size … At times he loses his concentration on defense … Mediocre rebounder, who sometimes forgets to box out …

Thon clearly shows exceptional 3 point ability and seems quite athletic and coordinated. Just from the videos I like Thon better.

by **arambone** Tue May 17, 2016 2:10 pm

tjmakz wrote:
arambone wrote:
Ram wrote:I think there are 12 names being considered as top 10 picks and the draft falls into three tiers in this range.

Tier 1: Simmons and Ingram, will be the top 2 for sure

Tier 2: Murray, Bender, Hield and Dunn, none will slip past pick #8

Tier 3: Brown, Poeltl, Ellenson, Skal, Davis, Korkmaz, Sabonis, Richardson and Chriss

Tier 3 is interesting. 6 crazy upside freshman + 18 year old Korkmaz and two guys close to their ceiling already in Poeltl and Sabonis who went head to head in the tourney with the shorter Sabonis dominating.

Brown could go as high as #3 to a team like Boston that needs more of a SG/SF type than a PG or pure SG. Ellenson, Skal and Chriss would all project as potentially great offensive bigs to pair with two way (but more defensive) studs like Anthony Davis, Valaciunas and Karl Anthony-Towns.

Skal and Richardson did a lot at the combine to show if you have 2-3 years of patience they may end up being just as good or better players as Bender and Hield.

As you can see, I feel Boston will be on the outside looking in with pick #16. Moving into the 10-13 range would ensure one of these all-important tier 3 guys and I really hope they can do it.

That tier system is simply wrong, in my opinion. You can't say a bench warmer in Israel is clearly above anybody. Even if the whole internet copies draft express and their campaign 4 Bender. And one dimensional shooters under 6'6" without elite athleticism are rarely in an elite tier with separation over two way players with star potential on both ends of the court.

Just my opinion.

Keep in mind Draft Express was confident that Skal was a top 2 talent, and he couldn't even succeed at the college level.

Why do you have such an obsession against Draftexpress?
They are one of many organizations that cover basketball and the NBA Draft.
Draftexpress and many many other companies and websites put out mock drafts.
Some they get right, some they get wrong.
Why harp on draftexpress over and over and over again?

In looking at Bender and Maker's video's, I would draft Bender way before Maker.
Bender reminds me of Porzingis with better ball handling.
It's true that Bender hasn't played a lot of top talent, but who has Maker ever played against?
He played 5 years of HS basketball.

Why don't you list who you think will go in the top 10 so we can go back and critique your picks?

Who has Bender played against? If one bench warmer in Europe is so amazing, why not go after every bench warmer in Europe?

Maker would dominate college bball this year if he had gone, just like Garnett would have, and Kobe.

4 teams passed on KG because "who has he gone up against?", and 12 teams passed on Kobe because "who has he gone up against?" Same thing with Tracy McGrady and a bunch of other high school to pros superstars who were passed over by guys who played in college. But probably not passed over for bench warmers in Israel.

Maker has a 2" longer wingspan, an 8-10" higher vertical leap, a higher standing reach, a much better motor and toughness, and better ball handling ability.

Maker is the kind of elite athlete who can actually play at SF at 7'1". People who have watched Bender for years say he is in no way a SF, because he doesn't have near that kind of quickness. Not surprising considering his no step vert leap is 24", and his max vert leap is about 27". And they also say he is soft like Bargnani defending power forwards.

So what is he? Some kind of vague tweener who isn't really good at anything.

If he had a high motor and was as good as draft express says he is, he would be getting off the bench in Israel at 7'1". Period.

by **arambone** Tue May 17, 2016 2:12 pm

tjmakz wrote:
arambone wrote:In some drafts there is real separation between guys ranked 3-6 and guys ranked 7-10 or 7-14.

Then there are other drafts, like this one, where it's wide open after the top 2 picks. People like order to help consolidate their understanding of a draft, but that doesn't mean the players fall into any easy tiers.

Even the people who keep predicting Dragan Bender goes 3 admit that he could go 12th. That wouldn't happen if he was in a tier above other players.

Show us one mock draft where Bender is listed below 6.

Bender is definitely in tier 2.

Tier two is about 8-10 players, that's my point.

by **arambone** Tue May 17, 2016 2:15 pm

Why do I keep harping on Draft Express? Because they scout international players way more than every other American mock draft web site.

I know that everybody is just following their lead.

Think about it, how the F else would a bench warmer in Israel be considered such a high draft pick.

nbadraft.net practically ignores European ball completely, at least when it generally comes to their mock drafts. They had Jufuf Nurkic as a mid-late second rounder until about two days before the 2014 draft, and Nikola Jokic late 2nd round.

Bender being ranked that high is in part a DX passion project, and in part it's evidence of how weak this draft is outside the top 2.

by **arambone** Tue May 17, 2016 2:17 pm

One of the biggest things not known about Maker is his defensive focus never wavers, and his head is on a swivel the whole game. And he can even full court press the whole game too.

We're talking about a F'ng machine out of a Terminator movie.

by **arambone** Tue May 17, 2016 2:21 pm

Last year before the draft I was hyping Porzingis as a future hall of famer, and came up with the nickname GOATzingis.

While that nickname didn't stick, everybody calls him Godzingis. Pretty close.

If I came up with the right nickname for Thon this year I could probably copyright it and make a few pennies.

T-1000 would be a Terminator 2 reference but already copyrighted.

The UnderMaker, something like that

by **tjmakz** Tue May 17, 2016 2:35 pm

arambone wrote:Why do I keep harping on Draft Express? Because they scout international players way more than every other American mock draft web site.

I know that everybody is just following their lead.

Think about it, how the F else would a bench warmer in Israel be considered such a high draft pick.

nbadraft.net practically ignores European ball completely, at least when it generally comes to their mock drafts. They had Jufuf Nurkic as a mid-late second rounder until about two days before the 2014 draft, and Nikola Jokic late 2nd round.

Bender being ranked that high is in part a DX passion project, and in part it's evidence of how weak this draft is outside the top 2.

Yes, Jokic was projected to go #53 in 2014 and was drafted at #41.
Did all of the teams that passed on Jokic also ignore the Europeans?

You can post however you want, but I choose to not look back and criticize others and highlight my supposed successes at getting my analysis correct about players.

by **tjmakz** Tue May 17, 2016 2:37 pm

arambone wrote:One of the biggest things not known about Maker is his defensive focus never wavers, and his head is on a swivel the whole game. And he can even full court press the whole game too.

We're talking about a F'ng machine out of a Terminator movie.

Give us your prediction about where you think Maker should be and will be drafted.
I say he is definitely NOT a lottery pick.

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