Draft Pick #1 - 6

bobheckler wrote:

worcester wrote:Bob, You are usually 100% with your comments. Did you really mean to imply that we should look to pick up Rudy Gay? He's soon to be 30. Ten years in the NBA. Lots of miles on those tires. Decent stats but IMHO, missing ganas. His points declined this year even with Rondo as his point guard- not a good sign.

             PPG  RPG  BPG
Season 17.20  6.51  0.73
Career 18.39   5.89  0.82

worcester,

Thank you for your comment about me being usually 100% correct.  That perspective will serve you in good Cousins stead in the future.  :-)

I am neither for nor against Gay.  I was using him as an example of a proven NBA talent that would be an upgrade for us.  He took 2 fgas/36mpg fewer last year than the year before.  That is part of the reason why his scoring was down.  Why he took fewer fgas, I do not know.  Cousins took almost a fga more, so maybe that's where some of the shots went.


bob

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Cousins a a hellava player but I think I have to side with Max (wouldn't give a bag a donuts for him) on this one. He's a problem. A lot of his teammates don't care for his act and by now you would think he would have matured. Sounds like he's more trouble than he's worth. Biyambo? Yes!!!

Poeltl's scoring is very underrated. His post game is outstanding, and the only reason he scored only 17 ppg is because he didn't get the ball nearly enough. His FG% and True Shooting % were through the roof.

He was a late bloomer offensively, so people are slow to give him credit for his doubling his FT % and turning into a Kevin McHale type scorer around the basket.

And remember, one year ago Poeltl locked down Okafor, and held him to just 6 points. Now Poeltl has Okafor's post game too.

He's basically looking like a 7'1 version of Kevin McHale. But people are pigeonholing him as strictly a center, just like they did with Porzingis, Nikola Jokic, and Myles Turner.

This is the next underrated 7' stud to slip under the radar and be mis-scouted and type-cast.


While the Celtics 3 point shooting was terrible in the playoffs, and bad in the regular season, part of that was taking too many 3 pointers, and part of that was not having any good post scorers. And a great post scorer like Poeltl can open up the 3 point shots for the rest of the team.


While I like Hield a lot, I think he'd be strictly a lateral move from our other guys like Bradley, Smart, and Rozier, who all are much better defenders than Hield.


But either way, this team will get better, and like you say there are other quality 7 footers later in the draft. I'd just rather get the 7'1 Kevin McHale first, and then maybe even double dip and draft a true center at 16.

Shooters are almost always available later in drafts, like RJ Hunter this year. Norman Powell from the second round is shooting great, and already looks like a two-way star in the making.

Celtics just got unlucky in losing two of their three top shooters in Bradley and Olynyk at the end of the year. Not many teams recover from losing two of their top 3 shooters.

Having a legit post scoring stud would really help our team's 3 point shooting, by getting them wide open catch and shoot shots.

And in his last college game Poeltl got shutdown and eaten up by Sabonis.

I only saw the boxscore, didn't see that game, hope he is near as good as you say. Comparing someone to Kevin McHale is high praise, and I might not have read every report, but this is the first time hearing that comparison, if he really has that kind of post game and defensive ability he can help us....alot.

I'd just rather get the 7'1 Kevin McHale first, and then maybe even double dip and draft a true center at 16.

Me too.

Yeah I even looked up McHale's college stats. McHale played 4 years, and didn't average 17 points until his junior year, and he scored 17 again as a senior. Poeltl did it as a sophomore, and did it on a FG% and true shooting % that McHale never came close to in any of his 4 years.

The only thing McHale did better was shoot 5% better from the FT line.

Playing in the Pac 12 means Poeltl received a LOT less hype than he would have playing in the east, where most of America can watch the games.

Just look at Norman Powell and Zach LaVine, who came out of UCLA. Kyle Anderson too. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson was an ELITE defender in the Kawhi Leonard mold from the first day he stepped on an NBA court, and yet he fell to the 20s last year. He came out of the Pac 12 too, Arizona.

And Poeltl is not only European, but he was a late blooming Euro. And not playing in the US until last year, he was completely off the US radar.


Last I checked, Porzingis' jersey was the 4th selling jersey in the NBA, but last year, even in June, even in October after summer league and pre-season, MOST people thought he was a skinny center who was years away from helping the Knicks. Then he started at PF from Game One, a move that most everybody did Not see coming, and the rest is history.

Poeltl has a better post game than Porzingis, Myles Turner, Towns, and most every recent prospect but Jahlil Okafor.

But he's an unknown, with an unpronounceable name, like Porzingis, and he had One bad game with an injury in the NCAA tournament.

cowens/oldschool wrote:And in his last college game Poeltl got shutdown and eaten up by Sabonis.

I only saw the boxscore, didn't see that game, hope he is near as good as you say. Comparing someone to Kevin McHale is high praise, and I might not have read every report, but this is the first time hearing that comparison, if he really has that kind of post game and defensive ability he can help us....alot.

Having McHale's game is fine - But you don't want his body.  210 lbs was ok back in the 80's but wouldn't cut it at power forward now. That's even light for shooting guards now a days.


 swish

worse I also have no problem taking even 3 bigs with our first 3 picks, throw enough crap on the wall, something has to stick.....anything new has got to be better than KO, Sully and Zeller. We have the weakest center play in the league.

arambone wrote:Yeah I even looked up McHale's college stats. McHale played 4 years, and didn't average 17 points until his junior year, and he scored 17 again as a senior. Poeltl did it as a sophomore, and did it on a FG% and true shooting % that McHale never came close to in any of his 4 years.

The only thing McHale did better was shoot 5% better from the FT line.

Playing in the Pac 12 means Poeltl received a LOT less hype than he would have playing in the east, where most of America can watch the games.

Just look at Norman Powell and Zach LaVine, who came out of UCLA. Kyle Anderson too. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson was an ELITE defender in the Kawhi Leonard mold from the first day he stepped on an NBA court, and yet he fell to the 20s last year. He came out of the Pac 12 too, Arizona.

And Poeltl is not only European, but he was a late blooming Euro. And not playing in the US until last year, he was completely off the US radar.


Last I checked, Porzingis' jersey was the 4th selling jersey in the NBA, but last year, even in June, even in October after summer league and pre-season, MOST people thought he was a skinny center who was years away from helping the Knicks. Then he started at PF from Game One, a move that most everybody did Not see coming, and the rest is history.

Poeltl has a better post game than Porzingis, Myles Turner, Towns, and most every recent prospect but Jahlil Okafor.

But he's an unknown, with an unpronounceable name, like Porzingis, and he had One bad game with an injury in the NCAA tournament.

sounds like you watch alot of college basketball, thats good, I never saw him play live and if he is everything you say, he will be great.

did you see the game vs Gonzaga? what happened to him?

I watched the Gonzaga game. He twisted an ankle or something before the game. And then he was double-teamed every time he touched the ball because he's Utah's only scoring threat. Then he picked up two fouls early, and he was on the bench while Gonzaga destroyed Utah.

He just wasn't right, but unfortunately it was the one game most people watched him play for the first time.

He was quietly a Player of the Year candidate all season, and if his teammates gave him the ball more he would have scored 20 ppg easily.

People generally completely ignore defense when talking about the best players in the country, which is how Hield dominated the POY chatter even though Denzel Valentine and Poeltl were both great defenders in addition to their offensive prowess.

But bigs like Poeltl are entirely dependent on their teammates to get them the ball, and Poeltl simply didn't get enough touches to truly compete for POY.

I've said this here before, but the guys ranked ahead of Poeltl at the moment are not necessarily better, especially when you consider defense and Poeltl's Elite tools at PF.

Simmons didn't come close to matching Poeltl's FG%, TS%, or defense. Simmons is a great passer and ball handler for a 6'10 guy, but a team doesn't need those skills from a PF as much as they do length, rim protection, and elite scoring efficiency.

Plenty of guards can dribble and pass, so Simmons skills are not exactly in short supply. Poeltl's skills can't be replicated from the guard positions.

What about this guy looks to be frail and skinny? Do I need glasses?  Could not copy and paste his photo. Try this link:

http://upsidemotor.com/2016/01/08/jakob-poeltl-utah-utes-2016-nba-draft-scouting-report/

He weighs 240# as a 21 year old. Next year he'll be 260.

Look at the top PFs that were hyped and drafted high in recent years:

Anthony Bennett, Jabari Parker, Julius Randle.

Bennett is out of the league, and Parker and Randle were two of the Very worst defensive PFs in the league this year.

Simmons fits right in with that tweener type of power forward who doesn't have good length, doesn't really care about defense to begin with, but who looks very photogenic while dribbling the ball and scoring off the dribble.

Bennett, Parker, Randle, and Simmons all used their strength to beat up on college players. Much harder to do in the NBA, and much harder to score over people's heads when your standing reach is 8'9" like ALL those guys.

The term "empty stats" fits these guys perfectly. They put up decent scoring and rebounding numbers, but their defense is terrible, their scoring isn't all that efficient, and they only grab so many rebounds because they have no shooting range.

Then you have guys like Porzingis, Jokic, Myles Turner, and Towns, 7 footers who play power forward at least part-time and contribute much more to their teams with their length on offense and defense. And none of them have the AAU diva/star attitude that the more hyped short tweener guys have.

And for some reason the draft process hasn't yet adjusted to valuing defense, length, and mobility at the PF spot.

So guys like Poeltl and Thon Maker get ranked lower, and guys like Jabari, Randle, and Simmons get hyped up like defense and length don't even count.

worcester wrote:What about this guy looks to be frail and skinny? Do I need glasses?  Could not copy and paste his photo. Try this link:

http://upsidemotor.com/2016/01/08/jakob-poeltl-utah-utes-2016-nba-draft-scouting-report/

He weighs 240# as a 21 year old. Next year he'll be 260.

He's actually only 20 years old, just 7 months older than Ben Simmons.

arambone wrote:I watched the Gonzaga game. He twisted an ankle or something before the game. And then he was double-teamed every time he touched the ball because he's Utah's only scoring threat. Then he picked up two fouls early, and he was on the bench while Gonzaga destroyed Utah.

He just wasn't right, but unfortunately it was the one game most people watched him play for the first time.

He was quietly a Player of the Year candidate all season, and if his teammates gave him the ball more he would have scored 20 ppg easily.

People generally completely ignore defense when talking about the best players in the country, which is how Hield dominated the POY chatter even though Denzel Valentine and Poeltl were both great defenders in addition to their offensive prowess.

But bigs like Poeltl are entirely dependent on their teammates to get them the ball, and Poeltl simply didn't get enough touches to truly compete for POY.

I've said this here before, but the guys ranked ahead of Poeltl at the moment are not necessarily better, especially when you consider defense and Poeltl's Elite tools at PF.

Simmons didn't come close to matching Poeltl's FG%, TS%, or defense. Simmons is a great passer and ball handler for a 6'10 guy, but a team doesn't need those skills from a PF as much as they do length, rim protection, and elite scoring efficiency.

Plenty of guards can dribble and pass, so Simmons skills are not exactly in short supply. Poeltl's skills can't be replicated from the guard positions.

I appreciate your observations/analysis, Drummond looked bad offensively alot in college as everytime I saw him as soon as he caught the ball he would be doubled and swarmed. The reports I read on Poeltl say he has a big frame and can get stronger, is he a PF or C at the next level? 4 and 5's today need to do the dirty work in the paint and chase on the perimeter, can he do both? AJ Hammons can bang inside, can defend and post, I don't think he can hang on the perimeter defensively, hes definitely a 5 not a 4.

Cow, Arambone makes good points about Poeltl. He plays D, solid D. Has anyone ever said that about Kelly? Regarding Denzel Valentine, someone wrote on this site that he was too slow to play D in the NBA. Funny, because besides being a really good scorer in college, he was a top defender, boosting him in the POY talk. My daughter knows Denzel and his dad, having spent a week with them prepping for a National Kidney Foundation benefit. She says Denzel is a class act. Character counts, as does good D and scoring. I like both of these guys - not as our Nets pick, but maybe we could nudge up our later picks to grab them both.

worse for whatever reason I have not seen him play. All these picks have to have the ability to further develop, Avery Bradley had that, Sully sadly doesn't. How can you judge which kids have the ability to develop and keep improving? going off in a tangent, but sounds like you saw some of Poeltl. My son likes Valentine, but I think we have a surplus of guards, alot depends on what ET does. Valentine seems like a good 2 prospect, I don't know if he has the strength/size to play the 3. He seems like a Danny Green type with better handle and passing skills....we all know we need an infusion of bigs, amazing all this team accomplished with such weak bigs, has there ever been a worse defensive trio than KO, Sully and Zeller?

This is the latest highlight vid of Poeltl:

If Danny wants Poeltl I think he'll have to use the Nets pick for him.

thanks for the link Worcester, it read like many others I have read about him. Not sure I would be ready to crown him the next McHale, that's really a HIGH standard to meet.

Myself, I still see him a better Alex Len.

IF Danny drafts him high then I definitely would try to sign Pau Gasol to a 2 year deal so Poeltl has time to develop his NBA game.

Replacing Sully and Zeller with Gasol and Poeltl would be upgrading for now and the future. though not as splashy as some may like.

kdp59 wrote:If Danny wants Poeltl I think he'll have to use the Nets pick for him.

thanks for the link Worcester, it read like many others I have read about him. Not sure I would be ready to crown him the next McHale, that's really a HIGH standard to meet.

Myself, I still see him a better Alex Len.

IF Danny drafts him high then I definitely would try to sign Pau Gasol to a 2 year deal so Poeltl has time to develop  his NBA game.

Replacing Sully and Zeller with Gasol and Poeltl would be upgrading for now and the future. though not as splashy as some may like.

kdp,

Assuming we don't drop to #6, which would make picking Poetl less of a reach, assuming we stay around #3, he could draft Bender (or whomever) and then trade down to #7 or 8 for Poetl. He could pick up another 1st round pick for that, and it would be a first round from a team like Denver or Sacto that is likely to be in the lottery again next year too. Toronto picks at #9. They could use another big like Poetl, they like international players and they are direct threats to us.


bob


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arambone wrote:Poeltl's scoring is very underrated. His post game is outstanding, and the only reason he scored only 17 ppg is because he didn't get the ball nearly enough. His FG% and True Shooting % were through the roof.

He was a late bloomer offensively, so people are slow to give him credit for his doubling his FT % and turning into a Kevin McHale type scorer around the basket.

And remember, one year ago Poeltl locked down Okafor, and held him to just 6 points. Now Poeltl has Okafor's post game too.

He's basically looking like a 7'1 version of Kevin McHale. But people are pigeonholing him as strictly a center, just like they did with Porzingis, Nikola Jokic, and Myles Turner.

This is the next underrated 7' stud to slip under the radar and be mis-scouted and type-cast.


While the Celtics 3 point shooting was terrible in the playoffs, and bad in the regular season, part of that was taking too many 3 pointers, and part of that was not having any good post scorers. And a great post scorer like Poeltl can open up the 3 point shots for the rest of the team.


While I like Hield a lot, I think he'd be strictly a lateral move from our other guys like Bradley, Smart, and Rozier, who all are much better defenders than Hield.


But either way, this team will get better, and like you say there are other quality 7 footers later in the draft. I'd just rather get the 7'1 Kevin McHale first, and then maybe even double dip and draft a true center at 16.

Shooters are almost always available later in drafts, like RJ Hunter this year. Norman Powell from the second round is shooting great, and already looks like a two-way star in the making.

Celtics just got unlucky in losing two of their three top shooters in Bradley and Olynyk at the end of the year. Not many teams recover from losing two of their top 3 shooters.

Having a legit post scoring stud would really help our team's 3 point shooting, by getting them wide open catch and shoot shots.

I don't know much about Poetl right now, I'm going to start looking at his film soon, but I thought this was a well-thought out, well-founded and presented post.  I enjoyed reading it.


bob


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kd - I like the Pau and Jakob combo. The kid is not McHale but he does have good low post moves, good hands and feet, and plays solid D. He does need time to develop, and I've seen zero evidence that he has any outside shot. One encouraging note is the his ft% went up from .444 as a frosh to .689 as a sophomore. I'd still like to see us wind up with a good shooting 3 and a center.

Yes Cow, Denzel is really a 2, but we could use another good shooting 2, though a 3 is more of a priority. Love the way AB has developed his game, from being a great defensive guard with no handle and no moves to the basket to being a great defensive guard with not much of a handle but a good outside shot and decent moves to the basket.

After seeing the game film, thanks rambone, I don't think Poeltl is a 5, too slight, hes a 4, but it looks like he has short arms and small hands, he is somewhat mobile, but can he run with a Draymond Green? does he have length and athleticism to handle a Anthony Davis one on one? I didn't see that on film and I sure didn't see the next Kevin McHale either.

cowens/oldschool wrote:After seeing the game film, thanks rambone, I don't think Poeltl is a 5, too slight, hes a 4, but it looks like he has short arms and small hands, he is somewhat mobile, but can he run with a Draymond Green? does he have length and athleticism to handle a Anthony Davis one on one? I didn't see that on film and I sure didn't see the next Kevin McHale either.

Cow,

He's listed, pre-Draft Combine, as 7'1" and a 7'1" wingspan. A little short but not alligator-armed like Kelly. He's 242#. That's 5# heavier, but 1" taller, than Kelly when he came out. He's also 2-3 years younger than Kelly was when he came out.

I think, for him to play NBA 5, he'd need to put on 15# and most of it would have to be on his legs and lower body. But would he really need to play traditional 5? Look at Al Horford (not his playoff play, but overall). He's an outside type of 5 on offense and an inside type of 5, who can and does go out to the arc, on defense. Put Poetl in the low blocks and Kelly (or Zeller or Sully) outside and he is either working against the bigger, slower 5 or he has a 4 on him like McHale used to have in the low blocks with Parish out at the high blocks for his rainbow. Obviously this would work even better if we had upgrades over those 3, but even with those 3 it could work. The point arambone makes makes sense, you need inside threats to help your perimeter offense and you absolutely, positively need perimeter threats in this NBA to facilitate your inside threats and Poetl is an inside threat. Kelly is an inside threat, but only when he can get the mismatch, like a 4 or a 3 (e.g. if they are going small like we saw some teams try to do last year and they put a 3 on him. He posted them up). Neither Sully nor Zeller are inside threats against any likely matchup.



bob


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It is easy and likely that a 20 year old will put on 8 lbs. of solid muscle mass a year, more weight if one adds in fat, but we don't want that. By the time Poeltl is 22 he should weigh in over 260 pounds of solid muscle, bone, and gristle. He is not a pussy and shows me enough motor and macho to feel comfortable with him as a 5, unlike Kelly who is more of a finesse 4. Jakob would be the best thing that could ever happen to Kelly. Sign Pau for two years and a good shooting 3, and we would have a solid contending team starting in 2016-17. Hopefully. One never really knows with rookies, except for Wilt, Russ, Magic, Bird, and those of that ilk. I have always liked and respected Gasol. He still has plenty left in his tank.

bobheckler wrote:

arambone wrote:Poeltl's scoring is very underrated. His post game is outstanding, and the only reason he scored only 17 ppg is because he didn't get the ball nearly enough. His FG% and True Shooting % were through the roof.

He was a late bloomer offensively, so people are slow to give him credit for his doubling his FT % and turning into a Kevin McHale type scorer around the basket.

And remember, one year ago Poeltl locked down Okafor, and held him to just 6 points. Now Poeltl has Okafor's post game too.

He's basically looking like a 7'1 version of Kevin McHale. But people are pigeonholing him as strictly a center, just like they did with Porzingis, Nikola Jokic, and Myles Turner.

This is the next underrated 7' stud to slip under the radar and be mis-scouted and type-cast.


While the Celtics 3 point shooting was terrible in the playoffs, and bad in the regular season, part of that was taking too many 3 pointers, and part of that was not having any good post scorers. And a great post scorer like Poeltl can open up the 3 point shots for the rest of the team.


While I like Hield a lot, I think he'd be strictly a lateral move from our other guys like Bradley, Smart, and Rozier, who all are much better defenders than Hield.


But either way, this team will get better, and like you say there are other quality 7 footers later in the draft. I'd just rather get the 7'1 Kevin McHale first, and then maybe even double dip and draft a true center at 16.

Shooters are almost always available later in drafts, like RJ Hunter this year. Norman Powell from the second round is shooting great, and already looks like a two-way star in the making.

Celtics just got unlucky in losing two of their three top shooters in Bradley and Olynyk at the end of the year. Not many teams recover from losing two of their top 3 shooters.

Having a legit post scoring stud would really help our team's 3 point shooting, by getting them wide open catch and shoot shots.

I don't know much about Poetl right now, I'm going to start looking at his film soon, but I thought this was a well-thought out, well-founded and presented post.  I enjoyed reading it.


bob


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thanks. And like I said somewhere in there or elsewhere, Poeltl at 3, 4, 5, or 6 wouldn't be a reach. There are guys that the mock drafts have higher, but they're not better prospects. Especially when you factor in offense And defense.

Man, I want Poeltl and/or Maker SO much. Even Qi would be good use of a late first/second rounder.

Unofficially, the top three 2016 combine heights (without shoes)

1. Zhou Qi - 7'1.25"
2. Jacob Poetl - 7'0.25"
3. Thon Maker - 6'11.75"

https://twitter.com/NBADraft