Our Lakers Pick Lookin' Good

Suns beat the Hawks by one, thereby helping to keep the Hawks below the Lakers but increase their own separation from the Lakers.  Hornets whupped the Queens, same as Suns/Hawks.  Clippers beat the Griz.

Tonight's relevant games:

Houston @ Orlando
TWolves @ Brooklyn
Raptors @ Chicago
GSW @ Dallas
OKC @ Lakers


As of 1/3/18:  pre-games:


1.  Atlanta              10-27,     .270
2.  Lakers              11-25,    .306
3.  Orlando             12-26,     .316
4.  Memphis            12-26,    .316
5.  Sacramento       12-25,     .324
6.  Dallas               13-25,     .342
7.  Chicago             13-24,     .351   
8.  Charlotte           14-23,     .378
9.  Brooklyn           14-23,     .378






bob






.

Lakers now have 26 losses.

Brandon Ingram really looked like a bust against OKC.

The only thing that stands out about Ingram is he has length.

Still a long way to go, but we may have to start rooting for Atlanta to lose a bunch more games so that the Lakers don't overtake them for the team with the worst record.

wideclyde wrote:Still a long way to go, but we may have to start rooting for Atlanta to lose a bunch more games so that the Lakers don't overtake them for the team with the worst record.

Very little chance Lakers end up with the #1 pick even if they end up with the worst record in the league.

fierce wrote:

wideclyde wrote:Still a long way to go, but we may have to start rooting for Atlanta to lose a bunch more games so that the Lakers don't overtake them for the team with the worst record.

Very little chance Lakers end up with the #1 pick even if they end up with the worst record in the league.

fierce,

The worst team in the league has a 25% chance of getting the #1 pick.  The 2nd worst team has a 20% chance, the 3rd worst has a 14% chance.  Is 25% a great chance?  No, but it's more than everybody else and that might be all the edge you need to get it.  Not 51%, just more than anybody else.


bob


.

Magic lost.  Brooklyn won, beating the Timberwolves (!!!).  Bulls lost.  Mavericks lost.  Phoenix lost.  And the Lakers got blown out.

Very tight grouping.  Two games separate #1 and #5.  That's not a lot to feel comfortable about.


Tonight's relevant games:

None


Friday's relevant games:

Chicago @ Dallas
Phoenix @ San Antonio
Washington @ Memphis
Atlanta @ Portland
Charlotte @ Lakers


As of 1/4/18:  pre-games:


1.  Atlanta              10-27,     .270
2.  Lakers              11-26,    .297
3.  Orlando             12-27,     .308
4.  Memphis            12-26,    .316
5.  Sacramento       12-25,     .324
6.  Dallas               13-26,     .333
7.  Chicago             13-25,     .342   
8.  Phoenix             15-25      .375
9.  Charlotte           14-23,     .378
10. Brooklyn           15-23,     .395



bob



.

bobheckler wrote:

fierce wrote:

wideclyde wrote:Still a long way to go, but we may have to start rooting for Atlanta to lose a bunch more games so that the Lakers don't overtake them for the team with the worst record.

Very little chance Lakers end up with the #1 pick even if they end up with the worst record in the league.

fierce,

The worst team in the league has a 25% chance of getting the #1 pick.  The 2nd worst team has a 20% chance, the 3rd worst has a 14% chance.  Is 25% a great chance?  No, but it's more than everybody else and that might be all the edge you need to get it.  Not 51%, just more than anybody else.


bob


.

Here are the odds of the pick landing 2-5 based on where the Lakers finish:

Worst record: 75.0%
2nd worst: 80.1%
3rd worst: 80.4%
4th worst: 70.9%
5th worst: 46.5%
6th worst: 15.2%
7th worst: 10.7%
8th worst: 7.2%
9th worst: 4.4%
10th worst: 2.9%
11th worst: 2.1%
12th worst: 1.8%
13th worst: 1.6%
14th worst: 1.3%

So basically we want them to finish within the bottom 4. Positions 2 and 3 are best; position 3 is actually slightly better overall than position 2, but at position 2, the odds of getting the second or third pick vs the fourth or fifth are a few percent better than at position 3.

Shamrock1000 wrote:

bobheckler wrote:

fierce wrote:

wideclyde wrote:Still a long way to go, but we may have to start rooting for Atlanta to lose a bunch more games so that the Lakers don't overtake them for the team with the worst record.

Very little chance Lakers end up with the #1 pick even if they end up with the worst record in the league.

fierce,

The worst team in the league has a 25% chance of getting the #1 pick.  The 2nd worst team has a 20% chance, the 3rd worst has a 14% chance.  Is 25% a great chance?  No, but it's more than everybody else and that might be all the edge you need to get it.  Not 51%, just more than anybody else.


bob


.

Here are the odds of the pick landing 2-5 based on where the Lakers finish:

Worst record: 75.0%
2nd worst:     80.1%
3rd worst:      80.4%
4th worst:      70.9%
5th worst:      46.5%
6th worst:      15.2%
7th worst:      10.7%
8th worst:        7.2%
9th worst:         4.4%
10th worst:       2.9%
11th worst:       2.1%
12th worst:       1.8%
13th worst:       1.6%
14th worst:       1.3%

So basically we want them to finish within the bottom 4. Positions 2 and 3 are best; position 3 is actually slightly better overall than position 2, but at position 2, the odds of getting the second or third pick vs the fourth or fifth are a few percent better than at position 3.

shamrock,

I agree, 100%.  3rd looks best since that gives them weaker odds of getting #1 (14% vs 20% or 25%.  Put another way, 1 chance out of 7 vs 1 chance out of 5 or 1 chance out of 4) but still gives us better odds of a 2-5 pick than ending up #2.  Normally one will surrender slightly better odds of getting a top 5 in exchange for better odds of getting #1, but not this year, not for us.



bob


.

bobheckler wrote:

Shamrock1000 wrote:

bobheckler wrote:

fierce wrote:

wideclyde wrote:Still a long way to go, but we may have to start rooting for Atlanta to lose a bunch more games so that the Lakers don't overtake them for the team with the worst record.

Very little chance Lakers end up with the #1 pick even if they end up with the worst record in the league.

fierce,

The worst team in the league has a 25% chance of getting the #1 pick.  The 2nd worst team has a 20% chance, the 3rd worst has a 14% chance.  Is 25% a great chance?  No, but it's more than everybody else and that might be all the edge you need to get it.  Not 51%, just more than anybody else.


bob


.

Here are the odds of the pick landing 2-5 based on where the Lakers finish:

Worst record: 75.0%
2nd worst:     80.1%
3rd worst:      80.4%
4th worst:      70.9%
5th worst:      46.5%
6th worst:      15.2%
7th worst:      10.7%
8th worst:        7.2%
9th worst:         4.4%
10th worst:       2.9%
11th worst:       2.1%
12th worst:       1.8%
13th worst:       1.6%
14th worst:       1.3%

So basically we want them to finish within the bottom 4. Positions 2 and 3 are best; position 3 is actually slightly better overall than position 2, but at position 2, the odds of getting the second or third pick vs the fourth or fifth are a few percent better than at position 3.

shamrock,

I agree, 100%.  3rd looks best since that gives them weaker odds of getting #1 (14% vs 20% or 25%.  Put another way, 1 chance out of 7 vs 1 chance out of 5 or 1 chance out of 4) but still gives us better odds of a 2-5 pick than ending up #2.  Normally one will surrender slightly better odds of getting a top 5 in exchange for better odds of getting #1, but not this year, not for us.



bob


.

Yup, the math says that if the Lakers finish with the third worst record, there an 80.4% chance that their/our pick will land between 2 and 5 and convey to us. If they finish with the second worst record, there is an 80.1% chance the pick will convey to us. Either position would be great. Although the odds of landing 2-5 are 0.3% better for the 3 spot, I almost think I would rather have them finish at the 2 spot since the odds of getting the 2nd or 3rd pick are better (35.9 % for position 2 vs 31.3 for position 3).

wideclyde wrote:Still a long way to go, but we may have to start rooting for Atlanta to lose a bunch more games so that the Lakers don't overtake them for the team with the worst record.

Clyde

The Lakers have dropped 8 in a row. I was thinking the same thing (be bad but not too bad)

Last year on Jan. 3rd their record was 13 wins and 25 losses. Today they are 11 wins and 26 losses. The Lakers are in a funk and I can see where they miss Lonzo Ball running the offense. They are a team without a rudder. he will help to stabilize their offensive flow but there seems to be little doubt that the LAL are and will remain a very poor team this year.

dboss

bobheckler wrote:

fierce wrote:

wideclyde wrote:Still a long way to go, but we may have to start rooting for Atlanta to lose a bunch more games so that the Lakers don't overtake them for the team with the worst record.

Very little chance Lakers end up with the #1 pick even if they end up with the worst record in the league.

fierce,

The worst team in the league has a 25% chance of getting the #1 pick.  The 2nd worst team has a 20% chance, the 3rd worst has a 14% chance.  Is 25% a great chance?  No, but it's more than everybody else and that might be all the edge you need to get it.  Not 51%, just more than anybody else.


bob


.

But when you add the odds off 2-5 picks it tilts the odds of us getting there pick.  Which is all we are looking for.

beat

beat wrote:

bobheckler wrote:

fierce wrote:

wideclyde wrote:Still a long way to go, but we may have to start rooting for Atlanta to lose a bunch more games so that the Lakers don't overtake them for the team with the worst record.

Very little chance Lakers end up with the #1 pick even if they end up with the worst record in the league.

fierce,

The worst team in the league has a 25% chance of getting the #1 pick.  The 2nd worst team has a 20% chance, the 3rd worst has a 14% chance.  Is 25% a great chance?  No, but it's more than everybody else and that might be all the edge you need to get it.  Not 51%, just more than anybody else.


bob


.

But when you add the odds off 2-5 picks it tilts the odds of us getting there pick.  Which is all we are looking for.

beat

That is exactly what I did in my earlier post. The numbers work out that such that the 2nd and 3rd worst records have an ~ 80% chance of giving us a pick between 2 and 5. The third spot is slightly better (80.4% vs 80.1% for the 2nd worst record). The worst overall record will result in a 25% chance of the 1st pick, and no chance of picking worse than 4th - thus a 75% chance of the pick ending up being 2,3, or 4. A 75% chance is still pretty damn good odds. Once they drop below the fourth worst record, the odds start dropping precipitously.

bobheckler wrote:

fierce wrote:

wideclyde wrote:Still a long way to go, but we may have to start rooting for Atlanta to lose a bunch more games so that the Lakers don't overtake them for the team with the worst record.

Very little chance Lakers end up with the #1 pick even if they end up with the worst record in the league.

fierce,

The worst team in the league has a 25% chance of getting the #1 pick.  The 2nd worst team has a 20% chance, the 3rd worst has a 14% chance.  Is 25% a great chance?  No, but it's more than everybody else and that might be all the edge you need to get it.  Not 51%, just more than anybody else.


bob


.

Law of averages, bob.

For 3 straight years now, the team with the worst record got the #1 pick.
In 2015 it was the Wolves who got #1.
The following season it was the Sixers who got #1.
And last year it was Brooklyn/Celtics that got the #1.

What are the chances that for a 4th straight year the team with the worst record gets #1 again?

Before 2015, rarely does the team with the worst record get #1.

fierce wrote:

bobheckler wrote:

fierce wrote:

wideclyde wrote:Still a long way to go, but we may have to start rooting for Atlanta to lose a bunch more games so that the Lakers don't overtake them for the team with the worst record.

Very little chance Lakers end up with the #1 pick even if they end up with the worst record in the league.

fierce,

The worst team in the league has a 25% chance of getting the #1 pick.  The 2nd worst team has a 20% chance, the 3rd worst has a 14% chance.  Is 25% a great chance?  No, but it's more than everybody else and that might be all the edge you need to get it.  Not 51%, just more than anybody else.


bob


.

Law of averages, bob.

For 3 straight years now, the team with the worst record got the #1 pick.
In 2015 it was the Wolves who got #1.
The following season it was the Sixers who got #1.
And last year it was Brooklyn/Celtics that got the #1.

What are the chances that for a 4th straight year the team with the worst record gets #1 again?

Before 2015, rarely does the team with the worst record get #1.

The chances that the worst team gets the number one pick are exactly 25%. These are independent events, and last years results have no effect on the probability of this years results.

Shamrock1000, Our Sam the statistician would be proud of your astute analysis.

Shamrock1000 wrote:

fierce wrote:

bobheckler wrote:

fierce wrote:

wideclyde wrote:Still a long way to go, but we may have to start rooting for Atlanta to lose a bunch more games so that the Lakers don't overtake them for the team with the worst record.

Very little chance Lakers end up with the #1 pick even if they end up with the worst record in the league.

fierce,

The worst team in the league has a 25% chance of getting the #1 pick.  The 2nd worst team has a 20% chance, the 3rd worst has a 14% chance.  Is 25% a great chance?  No, but it's more than everybody else and that might be all the edge you need to get it.  Not 51%, just more than anybody else.


bob


.

Law of averages, bob.

For 3 straight years now, the team with the worst record got the #1 pick.
In 2015 it was the Wolves who got #1.
The following season it was the Sixers who got #1.
And last year it was Brooklyn/Celtics that got the #1.

What are the chances that for a 4th straight year the team with the worst record gets #1 again?

Before 2015, rarely does the team with the worst record get #1.

The chances that the worst team gets the number one pick are exactly  25%. These are independent events, and last years results have no effect on the probability of this years results.

Based on history, before 2015, only in 2004 did the team with the worst team end up with the #1 pick from 2000 to 2014.

If you go back further, the last time the team with the worst record ended up with the #1 pick was back in 1990.

So history tells us that most of the time the team with the worst record does not have a good chance of ending up with the #1 pick.

fierce wrote:

Shamrock1000 wrote:

fierce wrote:

bobheckler wrote:

fierce wrote:

wideclyde wrote:Still a long way to go, but we may have to start rooting for Atlanta to lose a bunch more games so that the Lakers don't overtake them for the team with the worst record.

Very little chance Lakers end up with the #1 pick even if they end up with the worst record in the league.

fierce,

The worst team in the league has a 25% chance of getting the #1 pick.  The 2nd worst team has a 20% chance, the 3rd worst has a 14% chance.  Is 25% a great chance?  No, but it's more than everybody else and that might be all the edge you need to get it.  Not 51%, just more than anybody else.


bob


.

Law of averages, bob.

For 3 straight years now, the team with the worst record got the #1 pick.
In 2015 it was the Wolves who got #1.
The following season it was the Sixers who got #1.
And last year it was Brooklyn/Celtics that got the #1.

What are the chances that for a 4th straight year the team with the worst record gets #1 again?

Before 2015, rarely does the team with the worst record get #1.

The chances that the worst team gets the number one pick are exactly  25%. These are independent events, and last years results have no effect on the probability of this years results.

Based on history, before 2015, only in 2004 did the team with the worst team end up with the #1 pick from 2000 to 2014.

If you go back further, the last time the team with the worst record ended up with the #1 pick was back in 1990.

So history tells us that most of the time the team with the worst record does not have a good chance of ending up with the #1 pick.

fierce,

Each year's lottery is an independent event and, therefore, are not influenced by prior lotteries nor do they have any impact on future lotteries.  A 25% chance for the #1 pick this year is a 25% chance for the #1 pick even if you average the last 20 years out and it happens only once.  The only thing that history tells us is that the worst team is due.


bob


.

fierce wrote:

Shamrock1000 wrote:

fierce wrote:

bobheckler wrote:

fierce wrote:

wideclyde wrote:Still a long way to go, but we may have to start rooting for Atlanta to lose a bunch more games so that the Lakers don't overtake them for the team with the worst record.

Very little chance Lakers end up with the #1 pick even if they end up with the worst record in the league.

fierce,

The worst team in the league has a 25% chance of getting the #1 pick.  The 2nd worst team has a 20% chance, the 3rd worst has a 14% chance.  Is 25% a great chance?  No, but it's more than everybody else and that might be all the edge you need to get it.  Not 51%, just more than anybody else.


bob


.

Law of averages, bob.

For 3 straight years now, the team with the worst record got the #1 pick.
In 2015 it was the Wolves who got #1.
The following season it was the Sixers who got #1.
And last year it was Brooklyn/Celtics that got the #1.

What are the chances that for a 4th straight year the team with the worst record gets #1 again?

Before 2015, rarely does the team with the worst record get #1.

The chances that the worst team gets the number one pick are exactly  25%. These are independent events, and last years results have no effect on the probability of this years results.

Based on history, before 2015, only in 2004 did the team with the worst team end up with the #1 pick from 2000 to 2014.

If you go back further, the last time the team with the worst record ended up with the #1 pick was back in 1990.

So history tells us that most of the time the team with the worst record does not have a good chance of ending up with the #1 pick.

Assuming the info you provided is correct, then since 2000 or so, the team with the worst record has gotten the number one pick ~4 times. So in the last 16 or 17 years, the worst team has gotten the number one pick 4 times. That is pretty much 25%, as predicted by the allotment of ping pong balls.

I agree it may seem counter intuitive, but that is because you may be asking the wrong question. The question I think you are asking is what is the probability that the worst team gets the 1st pick 4 years in a row. The answer is 1/256 times, or about 0.4%. That means if your "experiment" is four consecutive drafts, then about 1 out of 256 times you run your four-draft experiment, the worst team will get the first pick all four times. However, if the first three "drafts" in a single experiment result in the worst team getting the 1st pick, then the probability that the fourth "draft" results in the worst team getting the 1st pick again is still 25%. Think about it this way - if you flip a coin 9 times and get 9 heads in a row, is the probability of getting heads on the tenth flip anything other than 50%? Of course not. Prior to getting your nine heads, the probability of getting ten heads in a row happening is 1/2 raised to the tenth power, or 1/1024 (~0.1%). If you do ten coin flips 1024 times, on average you will see one case where all ten are heads. However, once you already have nine heads, the probability of the tenth is again 50%.

Probably not the most interesting post, but the draft does come up a lot on this and other boards, and, as I mentioned earlier, sometimes probabilities can be a little counter intuitive.

The Lakers pick was in play the day that Danny traded down to draft Tatum.  The narrow odds favored Philly keeping the pick for 2018.  But if that happens the Celtics get to choose between the Kings pick or the Sixers pick in 2019, top #1 protected, in which case the Celtics would get the less favorable pick (Kings or Sixers)

Worst case scenario is that we miss out on the Lakers pick this year and next year the pick is #1. and  If one of the teams is a non lottery team, we end up with a non lottery first rounder.  The Sixers are probably a playoff team next year and the Kings are not.  Let's hope that the Kings will not be in last place next year.

This is one of those situations where you can win a free vacation or a set of steak knives.

The best case scenario is that the Lakers end up at #2 this year after all the balls have been airbounced.

dboss

Shamrock1000 wrote:

fierce wrote:

Shamrock1000 wrote:

fierce wrote:

bobheckler wrote:

fierce wrote:

wideclyde wrote:Still a long way to go, but we may have to start rooting for Atlanta to lose a bunch more games so that the Lakers don't overtake them for the team with the worst record.

Very little chance Lakers end up with the #1 pick even if they end up with the worst record in the league.

fierce,

The worst team in the league has a 25% chance of getting the #1 pick.  The 2nd worst team has a 20% chance, the 3rd worst has a 14% chance.  Is 25% a great chance?  No, but it's more than everybody else and that might be all the edge you need to get it.  Not 51%, just more than anybody else.


bob


.

Law of averages, bob.

For 3 straight years now, the team with the worst record got the #1 pick.
In 2015 it was the Wolves who got #1.
The following season it was the Sixers who got #1.
And last year it was Brooklyn/Celtics that got the #1.

What are the chances that for a 4th straight year the team with the worst record gets #1 again?

Before 2015, rarely does the team with the worst record get #1.

The chances that the worst team gets the number one pick are exactly  25%. These are independent events, and last years results have no effect on the probability of this years results.

Based on history, before 2015, only in 2004 did the team with the worst team end up with the #1 pick from 2000 to 2014.

If you go back further, the last time the team with the worst record ended up with the #1 pick was back in 1990.

So history tells us that most of the time the team with the worst record does not have a good chance of ending up with the #1 pick.

Assuming the info you provided is correct, then since 2000 or so, the team with the worst record has gotten the number one pick ~4 times. So in the last 16 or 17 years, the worst team has gotten the number one pick 4 times. That is pretty much 25%, as predicted by the allotment of ping pong balls.

I agree it may seem counter intuitive, but that is because you may be asking the wrong question. The question I think you are asking is what is the probability that the worst team gets the 1st pick 4 years in a row. The answer is 1/256 times, or about 0.4%. That means if your "experiment" is four consecutive drafts, then about 1 out of 256 times you run your four-draft experiment, the worst team will get the first pick all four times. However, if the first three "drafts" in a single experiment result in the worst team getting the 1st pick, then the probability that the fourth "draft" results in the worst team getting the 1st pick again is still 25%. Think about it this way - if you flip a coin 9 times and get 9 heads in a row, is the probability of getting heads on the tenth flip anything other than 50%? Of course not. Prior to getting your nine heads, the probability of getting ten heads in a row happening  is 1/2 raised to the tenth power, or 1/1024 (~0.1%). If you do ten coin flips 1024 times, on average you will see one case where all ten are heads. However, once you already have nine heads, the probability of the tenth is again 50%.

Probably not the most interesting post, but the draft does come up a lot on this and other boards, and, as I mentioned earlier, sometimes probabilities can be a little counter intuitive.

The NBA draft lottery is a very complicated process.
It's different from a coin flip.
A coin flip is basically a 50-50 chance of getting heads or tails.
But the NBA lottery is complicated.
That's why I think 4 straight years the worst team gets the #1 pick is highly unlikely.

Tanking, and they have no incentive to do it.

https://sports.yahoo.com/kyle-kuzma-suspects-lakers-quit-things-go-bad-worse-l-192100075.html

This can be overthought until the cows come home, but as it is, the C's have a 75-80% chance of getting the pick. Unless the Lakers start winning, that kind of sums it up. And it's Statistics 101 that the odds reset every time, so one can't speculate based on past results. It's not like card counting for Blackjack.

steve3344 wrote:Tanking, and they have no incentive to do it.

https://sports.yahoo.com/kyle-kuzma-suspects-lakers-quit-things-go-bad-worse-l-192100075.html

I love this article!!

Bulls beat the Mavericks, Spurs beat the Suns, Wizards squeaked past the Griz, Blazers beat the Hawks and the Charlotte Hornets beat the Lakers.

Today's relevant games:

Boston @ Brooklyn
Chicago @ Indiana
Cleveland @ Orlando
Denver @ Sacramento


As of 1/6/18:  pre-games:


1.  Atlanta              10-28,     .263
2.  Lakers              11-27,    .289
3.  Orlando             12-27,     .308
4.  Memphis            12-27,    .308
5.  Sacramento       12-25,     .324
6.  Dallas               13-27,     .325
7.  Chicago             14-25,     .359   
8.  Phoenix             15-26      .366
9.  Charlotte           14-23,     .378
10. Brooklyn           15-23,     .395

Only 1/2 game between 2nd and 4th.




bob








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