2019 NBA Draft

If they really like Porter, they could take him at 14. There are certainly teams in the late teens that could take him.

a few players that I hope are not drafted by the Celtics include

Porter
Rui Hachimura
PJ Washington
Brandon Clarke
Nicolas Claxton
Goga Bitadze
Bol Bol
Tyler Herro
Daniel Gafford
Jaxson Hayes

I could add more. And if someone has a particular question as to why a particular player is on my DND list I will be happy to elaborate

Sure. Why those players? Who do you want to see drafted?

Porter averaged under 10 per game.
Rui Hachimura undersized for a PF and too slow to play SF
PJ Washington same reason plus he is a poor free throw shooter
Brandon Clarke undersized PF with short arms
Nicolas Claxton too skinny like Brandon Ingram
Goga Bitadze average rebounder, poor FT and 3PT shooter, few assists, average athlete
Bol Bol INJURY RISK
Tyler Herro very very short arms
Daniel Gafford No outside shot, poor FT shooter and passer
Jaxson Hayes No outside shot (cannot pass or shoot)

Boston must draft well given all the issues associated with roster changes. They must get a long and athletic bigman. He must check most of the boxes. A two position player would be idea. He must be able to defend his position. He must have a strong physical profile. In the Celtics offense he needs to be able to knock down outside shots and score in the post, be a willing passer and he needs to be able to run the floor.

Boston can live without Kyrie Irving but they cannot win without an upgrade to their front line.

The Celtics have enough draft picks to add a quality big, shooter and PG.

dboss wrote:Boston must draft well given all the issues associated with roster changes.  They must get a long and athletic bigman.  He must check most of the boxes.  A two position player would be idea.  He must be able to defend his position.  He must have a strong physical profile.  In the Celtics offense he needs to be able to knock down outside shots and score in the post, be a willing passer and he needs to be able to run the floor.  

Boston can live without Kyrie Irving but they cannot win without an upgrade to their front line.

The Celtics have enough draft picks to add a quality big, shooter and PG.  

I respectfully disagree that the Celtics can get three NBA ready players, picking at 14,20 and 22.

we may get one.

likely we'll get one player who becomes a rotational NBA player or better in this draft ( or any draft).

the other two later picks will likely be bench players at best, UNLESS Danny picks older guys who were in college longer.

kdp59

Every year there are middle and late first round picks that are more than NBA ready. The key is to identify the most talented player and avoid drafting players that have too many flaws.

I feel confident that Boston can definitely add either a quality shooter or quality big at 14. The PG will be a prospect and not likely to play much.

I think Boston can land either Sekou Doumbouya or Mfiondu Kabengele at #14. and have a shot at picking up a great shooter at 20 in either Dylan Windler or Cameron Johnson. The two latter guys are both seasoned college guys. Winder played for Belmont and Johnson UNC. I prefer Johnson because he has faced higher level competition.

At 22 you could take a flyer on one of the available centers and add a PG in round 2. There are PG's in the second round that have talent

I don't get the sense that there are a lot of players ready in this draft class to make an impact right away. Cam Johnson certainly is one that I see as a 3 and D player who could help a team. I'm a little concerned about Dylan Windler's size. Tatum was physically stronger than him as a rookie and he's a 4 year senior. I don't think Doubouya will be there at 14. I expect him to go between 8 and 11. Kabengele should be fine like Johnson, a potential solid role player. I think we can draft someone with higher upside since we should have some decent depth with rotation minutes going to Horford, Baynes, & Theis & further roster depth in Williams, Ojeleye, & Yabusele.

Nic Claxton is light at over 6'11", over 7'2" wingspan, 217 lbs, but is super quick, can really jump. He's comfortable dribbling the ball, playing on the perimeter and in the post. He's probably not ready to contribute too much yet but there's definite building blocks that fit where the NBA is going. He could be a special player.

Point guard is the one avenue for a player to be able to make an immediate impact on this team as the Cs have a mostly intact core on the wing and with bigs. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is really the only one in the 1st round 14 to 22 range unless they reach (like Rozier or Rondo) or believe Tyler Herro could play the role in a backup situation.

There's a case to be made that with so many freshman, new to basketball type players (Hayes, Hachimura), so few avenues for immediate impact on the Cs roster, taking 1 or 2 high upside, boom or bust types could be a good use of these 3 picks. Instead of taking someone with limited upside, DA takes players with exceptional characteristics that they can try to develop. Maybe take someone with high scoring potential like Langford, Porter, Bitadze, or Hachimura. Or despite his several red flags, Bol Bol, who has exceptional upside with his size, scoring, and shooting ability. Or exceptional athletes, developing players like Hayes, Little or Clarke. Or an exceptional shooter in Herro.

I look at Washington, like Kabengele, as another with upside as a potential role player. He's long, brings toughness, and hit just over 42% of his 3pts this past season. With the league having impact players near his size, he could be a solid pick if DA projects him to be able to defend that kind of player. Long 6'8" players are more valuable than ever in the NBA.

Kylecleric

I do like Washington as well but I like Kabengele more because he looks like a PF/C 256 pounds and can run the floor. I was surprised to see a 5.10% body fat rating for a guy at 256. He also has a 7'3 " wingspan PJ is really an undersized PF and I think is is time for Boston to get a big physical guy. 6' 10" is what we need I think. PJ is no scrub either. He is physical at 230 lbs. but he replicates other guys we have on the team sizewise like semi and Yabusele.

Maybe Kabengele's uncle, Dikembe Mutombo will help him develop.

The Players that Boston drafts will be rotation guys starting out. I could not help but watch more film on Cameron Johnson and I was really amazed by his shooting. His mechanics are excellent and he shoots them from deep. He has a lightning quick release. He is a perfect fit for Brad's offense and could be a factor as a rotation player.

Baynes and AH have no upside. Mostly downside at this stage of their careers. Theis is no center when forced to match up with big physical guys and Williams is undeveloped. If we lose Morris it opens the door for minutes at the 4.

I think we may see GH and JT play more PF this year but I do not think they are a good fit at PF on the defensive side of the ball.

The Celtics were helpless trying to contain the freak and I believe they would have been equally vulnerable going up against the Raptors front line.

I mentioned that Tyler Herro has very short arms

He stands 6'6" with shoes and his wingspan is only 6' 3.25"

Cameron Johnson and Dylan Windler have 6'10" wingspans.

Here's a look at the level of play that you might expect from centers and center forwards drafted 14 through 22 - starting in 1980 through last year. The pick number is the 5th column from the left.  Our picks, (14, 20, and 22) accounted for 8 selections out of 53.  About 15%.

 swish

dboss
I knew I had forgotten something.

http://bkref.com/tiny/MUqho

swish

swish wrote:Here's a look at the level of play that you might expect from centers and center forwards drafted 14 through 22 - starting in 1980 through last year. The pick number is the 5th column from the left.  Our picks, (14, 20, and 22) accounted for 8 selections out of 53.  About 15%.

 swish

where is it?

Zion and RJ Barrett are likely to go 1,3 in the draft.

Did you know that neither is a particularly good shooter from deep?

RJ 30.8% Zion 33.8%

Neither is a knock down shooter from the line

RJ 66.5%
Zion 64%

Neither has a particularly good assist to turnover ratio

RJ 4.3/3.2
Zion 2.1/2.4

These two high end draft prospects have a long way to go to be good NBA players.

dboss wrote:

swish wrote:Here's a look at the level of play that you might expect from centers and center forwards drafted 14 through 22 - starting in 1980 through last year. The pick number is the 5th column from the left.  Our picks, (14, 20, and 22) accounted for 8 selections out of 53.  About 15%.

 swish

where is it?

dboss

See my previous post - thanks for the notice

swish

swish wrote:Here's a look at the level of play that you might expect from centers and center forwards drafted 14 through 22 - starting in 1980 through last year. The pick number is the 5th column from the left.  Our picks, (14, 20, and 22) accounted for 8 selections out of 53.  About 15%.

 swish

dboss
I knew I had forgotten something.

  http://bkref.com/tiny/MUqho

 swish

Thank you

Looks like some decent players there.

Can you run one just for F

dboss wrote:

swish wrote:Here's a look at the level of play that you might expect from centers and center forwards drafted 14 through 22 - starting in 1980 through last year. The pick number is the 5th column from the left.  Our picks, (14, 20, and 22) accounted for 8 selections out of 53.  About 15%.

 swish

dboss
I knew I had forgotten something.

  http://bkref.com/tiny/MUqho

 swish

Thank you

Looks like some decent players there.

Can you run one just for F

dboss

Here it is

http://bkref.com/tiny/pHSyy

swish

Swish you ran this report for players C, CF drafted between 14-22.

In doing so you are missing out one all the eye opening late picks even into the 2nd round.

Guys like DeAndre Jordn, Whiteside,  Gobert, and  Clint Capela are in the top 10 in rebounding and all were drafted later than 22.  Throw in if you will Marc Gasol who was drafted in the second round.  And what about NIKOLA Jokic.  He was drafted in the 2nd round at #41

You have 5 centers in top 10 in rebounding that were drafted late. 3 were also in top 10 in scoring among centers.

There is talent to be had at 15 and below but you have to be able to evaluate talent better than your competition.

Danny Ainge is not  good at identifying  talent that falls late in the draft and he is horrible in evaluating big men.

dboss wrote:Swish you ran this report for players C, CF drafted between 14-22.

In doing so you are missing out one all the eye opening late picks even into the 2nd round.

Guys like DeAndre Jordn, Whiteside,  Gobert, and  Clint Capela are in the top 10 in rebounding and all were drafted later than round 22.  Throw in if you will Marc Gasol who was drafted in the second round.  And what about NIKOLA Jokic.  He was drafted in the 2nd round at #41

You have 5 centers in top 10 in rebounding that were drafted late. 3 were also in top 10 in scoring among centers.

There is talent to be had at 15 and below but you have to be able to evaluate talent better than your competition.

Danny Ainge is not  good at identifying  talent that falls late in the draft and he is horrible in evaluating big men.

dboss

I don't share the enthusiasm for late draft picks that you do (23 through 41). I'll stick with the stats that show that only 7 of the 115 center and center forwards averaged 8 rebounds per game and only 2 of them averaged 16 points per game.And remember - in the 2014 draft Dener took McDermott at 11 and followed with Jokic at 41 and in the 2013 draft Dener took Gobert and then traded him for Eric Green - who? In most cases late draft picks are all about fairy tale dreams.

Here's the list of the 23 to 41 draft picks

http://bkref.com/tiny/bhOUX

swish

Swish the key is to be one of the teams that has the insight to draft one of these guys.  The Celtics have had a lot of good players in their sight and passed on them.  

And this to me is not about centers per say but facts are facts.  You can find quality centers outside of the top half of the draft.  5 top 10 rebounding centers in the league right now and none of them were selected early.

Odds improve when you have an eye for talent.

dboss wrote:Swish you ran this report for players C, CF drafted between 14-22.

In doing so you are missing out one all the eye opening late picks even into the 2nd round.

Guys like DeAndre Jordn, Whiteside,  Gobert, and  Clint Capela are in the top 10 in rebounding and all were drafted later than round 22.  Throw in if you will Marc Gasol who was drafted in the second round.  And what about NIKOLA Jokic.  He was drafted in the 2nd round at #41

You have 5 centers in top 10 in rebounding that were drafted late. 3 were also in top 10 in scoring among centers.

There is talent to be had at 15 and below but you have to be able to evaluate talent better than your competition.

Danny Ainge is not  good at identifying  talent that falls late in the draft and he is horrible in evaluating big men.

dboss.

I believe all those big men were foreign born, except for Jordan and Whiteside. You may be on to something for Danny with that second round pick.

Trouble is this year there are not many International big men expected to be on the board in the second round for Danny to snap up.

Tacko Fall, if he's there
Neemias Queta

are a couple who come to mind

kdp59

What I think is that Danny is not good at drafting bigs.

Dboss, no need to belabor the obvious. Danny's blind spot is indeed drafting bigs.

worcester wrote:Dboss, no need to belabor the obvious. Danny's blind spot is indeed drafting bigs.

Thanks because I was about to list all the bigs Danny has drafted.

spot on there, it seems

Perk and Al were solid selections