Let the Speculations begin

The good news is that free agents can be signed starting this Thursday, and camp begins 12/9. That's only a week and a half away.

Always looking for the silver lining, at least we won't have to wait all summer to find out who's going to be playing where. There'l be a flurry of signings by the end of this week, and then another big flurry next week as teams fill out their rosters with whomever weren't high priority targets in the first crush and then we'll be done until February or so.

:-)

bob

.

bob,

The problem is that Sweetney is not "a fully operational" moon!!

Sam,

The qualifying offer (aka QO) is a mechanism that allows a team to have some control of a player who is at the end of his rookie contract. It exists so that the team that owns the rights to a young developing player can keep the player a little longer. The QO is not a contract, just the offer of one.

If the team makes the QO (usually before some kind of deadline) the player becomes a restricted free agent (RFA). On ther other hand, if the team does not make the QO, the player becomes a unrestricted free agent (URFA).

The team that makes the QO has the right to match another team's (accepted) offer to a RFA. The player has no say in this. If the player is a bust, the team lets the deadline pass with no QO and the player becomes a URFA.

I hope that helps.

gyso

Good points all around and a wealth of information from gyso.

Me, I'm not a GM, nor do I play one on TV. If I were a real GM, specifically of the C's, I'd be doing everything within reason to hang onto Rondo and Green (that was me, Bob, that said I'd go with SF over C in the east). On the team I would build (if I were a real GM or played one on TV) I'd stick with the youngest most athletic players first and rent the beef for now.

To that end I would sacrifice Davis to keep Green. It would be a gamble, yes, but I think the potential upside is too good to pass on. If Johnson can make the transition to NBA 4 as expected/hoped for when KG leaves that might be one heck of a core three. Also betting Johnson sees much more time at 5 this year rather than 4, especially if Davis stays. Saw him play it in Pitt games besides the 4 and I'd center him before Glen, keeping Glen at 4. Johnson wins in the acheive altitude and hands departments. Rondo, Green and Johnson; to me that's a gamble I take and starting the rebuild off right.

Man, I love having speculation be in style again. Can't wait for the deal to be finalized and official so we can see what the roster really shapes up to be. Just to even have a reason to guess and trade opinions again is welcome.

Regards

There is no link to Aldridge, other than the one someone mentioned above. I heard and saw him say that this morning on a taped interview on NBA TV, the information concerning the pursuit of Chandler.

MDCelticsFan wrote:There is no link to Aldridge, other than the one someone mentioned above. I heard and saw him say that this morning on a taped interview on NBA TV, the information concerning the pursuit of Chandler.

MDCelt,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=LxDNlTOEcDU

bob

.

Listening to the local sports reporters makes you wonder what the heck is going to happen. According to Shaunnessy and Ryan, they feel that there is something that is going to happen because he was able to convince Doc to
stay for five more years. They feel Danny has something up his sleeve, but
I don't know, he doesn't have much to work with in trade value. I can't even
make up my mind if I want Baby back. The only good thing would be that he knows the system and the beginning of the season may not get off to a rough start if there are alot of veteran's around.

I heard Jackie Mac on one of the sports shows last night talking about Glen Davis really being a problem for the team last year. Just found this article from her too talking about him at the end and some other interesting bits on the team.

http://greenstreet.weei.com/sports/boston/basketball/celtics/2011/11/29/jackie-macmullan-on-mm-veteran-teams-play-well-in-shortened-seasons/

We will have a season!

the way I remember it, Kristic is gone. He had no interest in returning to the NBA. It's probably much better for him to stay in Europe. The lockout was probably just the kicker he needed to sign with the commies. lol I think Davis is gone unless he can be had on the cheap. His meltdown when really needed and his lame excuse has probably bought him a ticket out of town. We don't need a quitter on this team. No one would have believed the roster the C's started last season with the previous June. Trust that Danny will put together a credible and competitive roster. In the mean time we can have so much fun speculating. LOL

I read somewhere that Kristic does not have a opt out clause in the first year of his contract, but he may for the second year. I also read that the league he plays for would take a cash buyout in order to release him. For him to play in the NBA, he will need the proper release papers.

I guess that we will have to wait and see how this plays out. We need a center (or two) and Danny and Company may decide that the buyout is the only way to properly fill that position.

Just speculating, of course!!

Hi,
To follow up on Rosalie's post: I think that there's something big brewing for Celtics.
Are we in playoffs yet?

AK

Free Agents may be signed starting TOMORROW!!

Usually, we have all summer to jerk our own chains. Thanks to the greed and stupidity and the principals, we were able to do other things this summer and only waste a week or so on speculation.

STARTING TOMORROW deals will start coming down and we'll see who is and who is not available.

Danny's ears must be constantly glued to a phone. No rest for the weary this year. The free agent shopping season imploded. Kinda serves them right.

The good news is that if the GMs don't have time to shop, the players don't have time to "play the field". Camps start 12/9 and the pre-season is abbreviated, so everybody will want to be signed and good-to-go by 12/8.

I LOVE THAT, NOW THAT WE CAN TALK BASKETBALL, THIS SITE HAS AGAIN BECOME ONE OF THE FIRST I COME TO IN THE MORNING!!


bob

.

bobh,

For the first time since the lockout began on July 1, NBA players are going to be welcomed back to their team facilities, said league spokesman Tim Frank. The league sent a memo to clubs Tuesday announcing the move, plus giving teams permission to begin speaking with agents at 9 a.m. Wednesday—though deals cannot yet be offered, and no contracts can be signed before Dec. 9.

Link:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AiSFzYoeZYrt0b.iZw_.ZQS8vLYF?slug=ap-nba-facilitiesopen

gyso wrote:bobh,

For the first time since the lockout began on July 1, NBA players are going to be welcomed back to their team facilities, said league spokesman Tim Frank. The league sent a memo to clubs Tuesday announcing the move, plus giving teams permission to begin speaking with agents at 9 a.m. Wednesday—though deals cannot yet be offered, and no contracts can be signed before Dec. 9.

Link:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AiSFzYoeZYrt0b.iZw_.ZQS8vLYF?slug=ap-nba-facilitiesopen

gyso,

I saw that after I posted. Another premature ejaculation, so to speak, on my part. Thanks for setting me straight.

Ok, so it'll be a "done deal, everybody will know it, paperwork being prepared, show up for camp on the 9th and you'll sign the contract and then go suit up".

Another dumbness, allowing a contract to be negotiated on Day 1 (Wednesday 11/30, GMs can start talking to agents) but not allowing those contracts to be signed for 9 days after that.

bob

.

I just read that Danny offered Rondo and Jeff Green to OKC in exchange for Westbrook and Perk after the playoffs last year.

Wow. IF this rumor is true, then that is an admission by Danny that trading Perk for Green was a mistake AND that he'd like to move Rondo for a PG that scores more (which would also explain and substantiate the Rondo-for-CP3 rumors).

Who is in charge here? Danny the trader or Danny the Mad Scientist?

Another rumor is that the Celtics are targeting Chuck Hayes of Houston. A 6'6", 238# center. Did an absolutely remarkable job at playing a position he really is 2 positions out of, at least. Good rpm numbers (10.3 rebounds/36mpg), but not an offensive threat (scores around the hoop and is, therefore, prone to being blocked). NOT a good FT shooter (60%). Very good on pick-and-roll defense due to his quickness at 5. Defends centers by getting under them and using his lower body strength to hold his position. Obviously, any center with a jumpshot can shoot over him. VERY nice assist-TO ratio for a center (2.3/1.4 = 1.64 career. Last year was 3.5/1.5 = 2.33. By comparison, Pau Gasol (a very sure-handed center with good courtvision) averaged 3.2/1.5 last season. That's worse than Hayes). His PFs/36mpg have dropped the last 3 straight years.

Beggars can't be choosers, but I'd rather have someone with height. On the other hand, if pursuing Hayes is Danny's plan to replace Davis in the pivot (meaning he's planning on keeping Jeff Green), then we need firepower to replace Davis' offensive output.

This is starting to make me a little crazy, but I've been Jonesing for some hoops, any hoops, for so long I'm willing to put myself through this. Fortunately, it will only last until 12/9.

bob

.

Nate Robinson is being bought out by OKC.

Oh brother. I hope Avery is ready to play point, because I don't want Nate anywhere near the ball except to shoot.

bob

.

According to an interview Danny gave:

1. He is NOT actively shopping Rondo. He's just doing his job and answering the phone when other teams call.

2. The Celtics are NOT going to use their Amnesty this year.

3. The Celtics HAVE reached out to both Davis' and Green's agents about coming back. Love to know how they're going to do the math on this.

4. Claimed his core players, whom he referred to as his "Four All-Stars", are "special" and he doesn't see trading any of them this season.

5. He expects the Celts to only have the $3M exemption this year, so he's waiting until the prime, more expensive beef is off the table before he will go shopping.

Another interesting part of the new CBA I just heard about is the "Stretch Provision". It allows teams to get rid of underperforming players by spreading out their contracts over a longer period of time.

For Example:

Player A signs a $30M, 3 year contract. The team waives him after 1 year, leaving $20M over 2 years left. They can spread his contract out over 2x the remaining years on the contract +1. In this case, he'd cost the team $4M/year over 5 years ($20M/(2 years left on the contract x 2) +1. That comes out to $20M/5 = $4M/year for 5 years. That might help a lot if you're anywhere near the cap limit. It's the difference between having $4M on the books for salary capology, when you go shopping next year, versus $20M.

So, if we sign Davis or Green to a bigger contract than maybe we should, or if they underperform (like, say, Baby turns into the Goodyear blimp) we can cut our losses using this provision.

Interesting. It does, however, require that the player be waived.

Danny has already signed players to longer term contracts than many thought was sensible, Sheed and Shaq come to mind, so I wouldn't be surprised if he uses this provision to sign players to bigger-and-therefore-more-attractive-to-them contracts he might not otherwise have a shot at and just assume he's going to have to eat the last year or so but be able to spread it out so it doesn't hurt as much.

bob

.

Bob,
Thanks for the info.
Great analogy about BBD - the only discrepancy is blimp can lift above ground more than an inch.

AK

Here's a crazy thought:

Given our well-documented need of warm bodies that come cheap, could we be seeing the return of Scal?

He's a free agent and has just severed his relationship with Italian club Benetton Treviso.

Well, somebody on this team has to guard Nowitski, right?

bob

.

bob,

You may be onto something there with Scal. Short season, the need for good cheap vets, Doc's issues with trusting rookies with playing time.

gyso

gyso wrote:bob,

You may be onto something there with Scal. Short season, the need for good cheap vets, Doc's issues with trusting rookies with playing time.

gyso

gyso,

I like Scal and have been a longtime defender of his contributions to the team. Obviously, my support does NOT stem from his statistics.

In this case what we have here is:

1. A veteran who knows the league (and the refs know him, a bonus over virtually every rookie).
2. A respected ex-teammate.
3. An appreciated voice on the bench and in the lockerroom by the coaching staff. Doc has said he's practically an extra coach.
4. A player who already knows Doc's system AND where his teammates will be on the floor.
5. A player that plays the perimeter pick-and-roll defense as well as or better than anybody on the team not named Garnett.
6. A player who will be happy with a paycheck. Almost any paycheck.
7. A team that needs warm bodies and, with the abbreviated camp, pre-season and regular season, doesn't have the luxury of a long learning curve to bring new players up to speed.

bob

.

Once again, my opportunity to replace Jeanne Dixon as a seer has been unsuccessful. There has not been, as I predicted, a spate of signings within the first 24-72 hours after GMs and agents were first allowed to talk on 11/30.

Apparently, not even a handshake deal may be announced (although I'm sure "the game" is being played behind closed doors) until 12/9.

What a brilliant move. Making the first day a team can announce they have a new player the same day as the start of an abbreviated camp. What an insightful way to improve the quality of the product, shortening the time a new player has to assimilate into their new environs and system by not letting them be announced until camp has already started. Time to wake up and smell the sarcasm.

Like I said, I'm sure deals are being struck, just not announced. Every other scenario flies past stupid towards imbecilic at supersonic speed. I'm hoping that free agents who are signing with a new club have their bags packed and are at the airport ready to board ON 12/8, even though the deal cannot be announced until the next day. It's called "The Red Eye", and it's the price they should pay for this nonsense they've put us all through.

Everybody got what they wanted from this lockout except the fans. A shortened season following an insufficiently preparative pre-season, same ticket prices. Whatever little that can be tweaked to improve the product this year should be grabbed by the owners and the players with both hands.

bob

.

Rumored pickups du jour, 12/3:

Marquis Daniels - We already know him. Good IQ, multi-position player, ran a coherent offense at point, better than average defender at multiple positions, surprisingly good postup shooter, unreliable jumpshooter, fragile.

Reggie Evans - Played with RA in Seattle. 6'9", very good rpm, hardnosed and physical player, no offense. Voted "Dirtiest Player in the League in 2010". Howard thinks we frustrate him now...? Over the past few years teams have claimed that the Celtics try to intimidate them physically. Reggie Evans would bring them more of the same.

Shannon Brown - very athletic and very dangerous in the open court. I'd love to hear TJ's opinion of his IQ, jumpshot and defense.

In other news, LA is allegedly targeting Delonte West. Can they sign Brown AND West? They have Bird rights on Brown, but signing both of them would really hurt LA's luxury tax situation in coming years, since it is progressively harsher on chronic over-cap teams.

bob

.

Bob,
Or, maybe Gyso (CBA involved), who's in better position $$-wise, LAL or Celtics, to get DW?
I presume, I hope that he'd prefer Celtics (big 3+Doc) over LAL (KB+MB), but, as you know, money talks.
Thanks.

AK

sinus007 wrote:Bob,
Or, maybe Gyso (CBA involved), who's in better position $$-wise, LAL or Celtics, to get DW?
I presume, I hope that he'd prefer Celtics (big 3+Doc) over LAL (KB+MB), but, as you know, money talks.
Thanks.

AK

sinus,

I'll take the first shot, perhaps to be overridden by gyso later.

I'd say LA has the better shot, for these reasons.

1. They have Bird rights on Brown, so they can go over the cap to sign him.
2. We do NOT have Bird rights on DW.
3. We both have the mini-$3M exemption, but do we want to use that on DW? Wouldn't we rather use that for an at-least-halfway-decent center?

DW can play point and, as TJ has pointed out, LA has the worst point guard corp in the league. Moving to a traditional offense, they NEED an upgrade at that position. DW would take the ball out of Blake and Fisher's hands and let them do what they do better, shoot. Furthermore, Mike Brown knows Delonte. He was Brown's starting SG in Cleveland (Mo Williams was their starting PG), so DW knows Mike Brown's playbook already. Having an experienced point guard who knows how to run a Mike Brown offense would be very helpful, regarding helping the Lakers transition to Brown's gameplan. He also has a shot at more minutes, given Fisher's geriatric state and Blake's general incapabilities.

We have E'Taun Moore, Gilbert Brown, Avery Bradley and possibly Von Wafer redux. None of them can play point like DW, but they are guards.

bob

.