Should the Celtics look at Thon Maker?

cowens/oldschool wrote:

arambone wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:I like the activity and energy Maker has on defense, obviously KG who was a skinny guy had that and would battle with anyone, Gobert has that, I don't see any of that activity in Bender's defense on film.

If Bender had that activity and energy, he wouldn't be stuck on the end of the bench as a 7'1 guy in Israel.

Like I said, DX and most other mock draft sites don't really look at defense much, other than shots blocked and steals perhaps.

Skal has terrible defensive feel, reaction speed, strength, and toughness, but DX couldn't care less. Same things with Bender, more or less.

no nothing of Benders stay in Israel, how did he do? was he there a whole season?

He was there two years. Didn't play much this year on the big team. Last year he played in the B league, with semi-pros, I believe

I don't get it, he barely gets any minutes, why is he ranked so high? he looks soft to me, but what do I know?

Exactly. European fans compare him to Bargnani.

What made Porzingis successful as a rookie was his toughness and defensive mentality. That's not something that just comes later, 99% of the time.

I swear, draft express sets the tone and everybody else just follows. And draft express didn't even think Porzingis was NBA ready last year. Why? Because they don't appreciate or understand what makes a good defender. It all starts and ends with toughness/defensive mentality.

Porzingis has it, Maker has it, Bender doesn't have it, and neither does Skal. Neither does Ben Simmons, though at least he weighs 240.

I might have already said something along these lines, but I would not be surprised if Thon Maker was able to play small forward for the first 5-10 years of his career.

I think he really has the potential to be something like a 7'1" Paul George. Maker isn't the shooter that George is yet, but George's %s aren't amazing, and George wasn't nearly as good a shooter as Maker is at age 19.


Maker showing up to the Combine 10 lbs lighter at 216 was viewed negatively by many, but it's just going to make him more agile and explosive than he already was at 225 lbs.


Everybody always thinks that every player, especially tall guys, needs to pack on as much weight as humanly possible, but often that isn't the case. Like with Porzingis, a big part of what makes him such a good defender is his agility, and bulking up inevitably hurts agility.

I remember when Jonas Valanciunas came to the NBA and bulked up, European basketball guys were saying that it destroyed everything that made him such a good player in the first place, which was his mobility.



One reason people may not be thinking about Maker as having SF potential, aside from his 7'1 center height, is the misguided belief that Maker is a raw basketball player, and lacking much skill. It's an argument as absurd as the argument that Maker is an average athlete with small hands.


The game of basketball is changing in all sorts of ways, and freaks like Greek Freak and Thon Maker are being discovered and expertly trained from incredibly young ages. Giannis was an illegal Nigerian resident of Greece, Maker was a Sudanese refugee in Australia. In the past, guys like these usually weren't discovered when young, if at all.

Giannis wasn't even invited to the NBA Combine in 2013, and now he's a 6'11-7 foot point guard.

Maker can be the first 7'1" small forward, but probably not the last.

And Maker already has the super-confident (but humble) mentality to be a #1 scorer on a team, even if it takes him a couple/few years to get there, like Greek Freak and his point guard emergence.


I mentioned this before I think, but right now Maker is training every day with Brandon Ingram, the possible #1 pick and 6'10 small forward phenom. They're playing one-on-one all the time. I bet Maker is learning a lot from Ingram, and from the experience. Ingram draws a lot of Durant comparisons, and with very good reason.

Maker used to model his game after Durant, and while he now models his game after KG, I think he still has the athleticism, and the emerging skill set, to be a worse shooting, but better defending, taller version of Durant. In other words, some version of a taller Paul George.

And then Maker could play power forward in "small" lineups, as well.

I think Maker could take Crowder's job as starting SF within two years, even as Crowder continues to improve as a borderline-all star.

And all that's most definitely worth a top 5 pick in a weak draft outside the top 2.

Kurt Rambis has suggested that Porzingis could play some Small Forward next year, so Maker playing SF isn't as absurd as it might seem at first. And Porzingis is two inches taller than Maker at 7'3".

Welcome to the future, where 7 foot freaks with guard skills dominate the game at 3 positions.

so Bender was in the D-League of the Israeli pro basketball circuit, couldn't even get in the highest level competition over there?

cowens/oldschool wrote:so Bender was in the D-League of the Israeli pro basketball circuit, couldn't even get in the highest level competition over there?

He was only 17 last year though.

arambone makes a great point when trying to determine the long term success of the taller type NBA draft picks who have already shown that their bodies are not yet completely ready due to their long bodies and young ages. Toughness is, indeed, a great point to measure in these situations, but toughness (big part of defense and rebounding) is very hard to measure objectively. Look at James Young as an example even though he was not a overly tall kid who got drafted in the top five picks in his draft year.

Measuring stuff like: height, wingspan, vertical jump, agility, shooting percentages, etc, etc are so much easier to use to determine possible success in the NBA. Of course, even these easily measured factors certainly do not always indicate NBA success because there have been many "stat stars" who have not made it as well.

Another factor that needs to be considered when an NBA team drafts a kid at the top of the draft is how long that team wants/can wait for the kid to make an impact. I have no doubts that Bender will probably become an NBA player but the question about him (and other such guys) is how long will it take him to become a viable contributor.

As an example, teams like Golden State can take a chance on such a kid because they really do not need him to be the face of their franchise immediately. Other teams need this type of kid to make a difference fairly quickly.

wideclyde wrote:

Another factor that needs to be considered when an NBA team drafts a kid at the top of the draft is how long that team wants/can wait for the kid to make an impact.  I have no doubts that Bender will probably become an NBA player but the question about him (and other such guys) is how long will it take him to become a viable contributor.

As an example, teams like Golden State can take a chance on such a kid because they really do not need him to be the face of their franchise immediately.  Other teams need this type of kid to make a difference fairly quickly.

I actually think the Celtics are in a position to wait with a kid like Maker. The expectation to become a difference maker will fall on whom we draft with the Nets pick (Maker won't be picked that high) and whomever we sign/trade for this summer. With all our picks/assets, I would even argue that the Celtics are in a prefect position to draft someone like Maker and develop him gradually. The kid seems to have his head on straight and sees the long-term well enough to know putting in the time now will pay off later, i.e. he could thrive under Brad;s tutelage. A move like this could set the Celtics up for years without compromising the present that much.

Look at James Young as an example even though he was not a overly tall kid who got drafted in the top five picks in his draft year.

Young was taken 17th, but I think Brad especially learned a valuable lesson from that experience. Don't draft guys without a proven hard-core work ethic, regardless of how talented they look.

I think Young is going to go on to be a scorer in the NBA, and he'll shoot the lights out at least for stretches, on his next team, but I think he might always be one of those guys that does the bare minimum amount of work, like Jared Sullinger.

I was hopeful that Young would get his work ethic and maturity together this year, but I think the big lesson is to let other teams make bets on tricky things like maturity and work ethic, and also toughness.

Let somebody else turn the soft prospects into warriors. I'll take the hard working, humble, fierce competitors who don't back down.

Maker is also a fearless shooter, and has the alpha mentality that you look for in a future #1 scoring option. Jeff Green wilted in that role, and Ben Simmons seemed to do the same at LSU. Will he develop that mentality in the NBA?

I was just contacted by Thon Maker's high school assistant coach about some game footage he said I'd be interested in.


Wish me luck, could be a cool opportunity for me and my video making. Still waiting on the details though.

arambone wrote:I was just contacted by Thon Maker's high school assistant coach about some game footage he said I'd be interested in.


Wish me luck, could be a cool opportunity for me and my video making. Still waiting on the details though.

arambone,

Dare I ask how you would know Thon maker's high school assistant coach?



bob



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bobheckler wrote:

arambone wrote:I was just contacted by Thon Maker's high school assistant coach about some game footage he said I'd be interested in.


Wish me luck, could be a cool opportunity for me and my video making. Still waiting on the details though.

arambone,

Dare I ask how you would know Thon maker's high school assistant coach?



bob



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Thon's family member requested he contact me and send me more game tape.

Must have seen this:

Neither USA Sports, CBS Sports, NBADraft.net, DraftExpress, Bleacherreport.com, mynbadraft.com, csnne.com plus none of the four writers for basketballinsiderrs.com have Thon Maker even going in the Top 30:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/draft/2016/05/17/nba-mock-draft-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram/84487850/

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/nba-mock-draft-2016-plenty-of-players-shuffle-after-going-through-combine/

http://www.nbadraft.net/2016mock_draft

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2016/

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2640282-2016-nba-mock-draft-1st-round-predictions-prospects-who-are-safest-bets

http://www.mynbadraft.com/NBA-Mock-Draft

http://www.csnne.com/gallery/boston-celtics/A-Sherrod-Blakely-2016-NBA-Mock-Draft-3-0

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/2016-nba-mock-draft-consensus-ver-1-0/


Of the ones that do, Tankathon has him going 25:

http://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

fansided has him at 27:

http://fansided.com/2016/04/28/2016-nba-mock-draft-brandon-ingram-new-number-one-pick/28/

And hoopshype has him going 28:

http://www.draftsite.com/nba/mock-draft/2016/

DraftSite has him going 14 to Chicago though:

http://www.draftsite.com/nba/mock-draft/2016/


Missed something:  Steven Kyler, one of the four writers at Basketballinsiders.com has Thon Maker going at 23.  To us!  That should warm arambone's heart.

steve3344 wrote:Neither USA Sports, CBS Sports, NBADraft.net, DraftExpress, Bleacherreport.com, mynbadraft.com, csnne.com plus none of the four writers for basketballinsiderrs.com have Thon Maker even going in the Top 30:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/draft/2016/05/17/nba-mock-draft-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram/84487850/

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/nba-mock-draft-2016-plenty-of-players-shuffle-after-going-through-combine/

http://www.nbadraft.net/2016mock_draft

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2016/

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2640282-2016-nba-mock-draft-1st-round-predictions-prospects-who-are-safest-bets

http://www.mynbadraft.com/NBA-Mock-Draft

http://www.csnne.com/gallery/boston-celtics/A-Sherrod-Blakely-2016-NBA-Mock-Draft-3-0

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/2016-nba-mock-draft-consensus-ver-1-0/


Of the ones that do, Tankathon has him going 25:

http://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

fansided has him at 27:

http://fansided.com/2016/04/28/2016-nba-mock-draft-brandon-ingram-new-number-one-pick/28/

And hoopshype has him going 28:

http://www.draftsite.com/nba/mock-draft/2016/

DraftSite has him going 14 to Chicago though:

http://www.draftsite.com/nba/mock-draft/2016/

Thon Maker invited to Lottery drawing. Here's a photo


That doesn't just happen. The insiders must know more than the outsiders

I got the game tapes from Thon's coach. Here's first new video:

This Sporting News mock draft has Maker going 19th. Moving on up..

http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/list/mock-draft-76ers-lottery-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-lakers-celtics/16d4z6zox89u61td1k05d79yjj/slide/19

Steven Johnson, in his 2001 book Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software, relates a tale of a barker in an English fair who would ask the public to guess the weight of his cow. They'd pay a pound per guess, and - if the winner - would collect a big prize. Over 700 people paid to guess the cow's exact weight, but no one did. Johnson somehow got the individual guesses and tabulated their average, which actually was extremely close to the actual weight of the cow, closer than any individual guess. He tells this story to get across the main point of his book that group intelligence is often/usually more accurate than individual judgments. With that in mind, consider this.

I tabulated the Celtics picks of all the various mock drafts listed in Steve's post and found the following:
For pick #3, 9 chose Dragan Bender, 2 Bobby Hield, 2 Jaylen Brown, 1 Jamal Murray
For pick # 16, 5 chose Denzel Valentine, 2 Skal Labissier, 2 Furkan Korkmaz, and 1 each for Taurean Prince, Jakob Poeltl, Daytona Davis, and Marques Chriss
For pick # 23, 3 chose Ante Zizic, 3 Damian Jones, and 1 each for Patrick McCaw, Diamond Stone, Taurean Prince, Thon Maker, Ivica Zubac, and Ryan Anderson

worcester wrote:Steven Johnson, in his 2001 book Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software, relates a tale of a barker in an English fair who would ask the public to guess the weight of his cow. They'd pay a pound per guess, and - if the winner - would collect a big prize. Over 700 people paid to guess the cow's exact weight, but no one did. Johnson somehow got the individual guesses and tabulated their average, which actually was extremely close to the actual weight of the cow, closer than any individual guess. He tells this story to get across the main point of his book that group intelligence is often/usually more accurate than individual judgments. With that in mind, consider this.

I tabulated the Celtics picks of all the various mock drafts listed in Steve's post and found the following:
For pick #3, 9 chose Dragan Bender, 2 Bobby Hield, 2 Jaylen Brown, 1 Jamal Murray
For pick # 16, 5 chose Denzel Valentine, 2 Skal Labissier, 2 Furkan Korkmaz, and 1 each for Taurean Prince, Jakob Poeltl, Daytona Davis, and Marques Chriss
For pick # 23, 3 chose Ante Zizic, 3 Damian Jones, and 1 each for Patrick McCaw, Diamond Stone, Taurean Prince, Thon Maker, Ivica Zubac, and Ryan Anderson

worcester,

Reminds me of what I used to tell people that worked for me when they were getting sucked down by groupthink, just wanting to get along.  I told them if this is how they are going to approach problem-solving then "they should all eat shit, since 49 quadrillion flies can't be wrong, can they?"

There is something to averaging polls but what if the polls are not independent observations?  What if all the pollsters are hanging around with each other and drinking beers and swapping thoughts?  What if they are watching the same highlight films, same draftexpress videos, reading the same interviews (or conducting the interviews and the interviewees are well-prepped and stay within the margins).

It does look pretty overwhelming for Bender though, doesn't it? And he hasn't even been recently measured. If he shows up and is the same size or taller that will pretty much solidify his position.


bob


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Bob, read Emergence someday. It's a fascinating book. I got halfway through it but left it on an airplane and never finished it. Maybe Johnson also arrived at the East shit and die conclusion.

Regarding Bender, I don't get it. I've seen a few of his videos now and he reminds of that Shakespeare play. I won't name it since you already know to what I'm referring.

I do like the look of Thon Maker and think arambone found a pearl in that oyster, but apparently everyone else just sees a grain of sand. Time will televise the revolution.

worcester wrote:Bob, read Emergence someday. It's a fascinating book. I got halfway through it but left it on an airplane and never finished it. Maybe Johnson also arrived at the East shit and die conclusion.

Regarding Bender, I don't get it. I've seen a few of his videos now and he reminds of that Shakespeare play. I won't name it since you already know to what I'm referring.

I do like the look of Thon Maker and think arambone found a pearl in that oyster, but apparently everyone else just sees a grain of sand. Time will televise the revolution.

worcester,

'Yon Dragan has a lean and hungry look"?

"Bender tis not as deep as a well nor as wide as a door, but he'll suffice, he'll serve"?

"There is nothing either good or bad but thinking makes it so"?

And for arambone's dogged defense of Maker - "Though this be madness, yet there is method in 't."



bob



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The author of this poem shall remain nameless:

He makes it easy to coach him because hes so humble and such a damn good kid. A real student of the game. But more importantly just kind hearted. Not many human beings are made like him

Much Ado About Nothing - my take on Dragan.

worcester wrote:Much Ado About Nothing - my take on Dragan.

agreed based on tape, I like Maker better, much better ball handler, battles harder in the paint.

cowens/oldschool wrote:

worcester wrote:Much Ado About Nothing - my take on Dragan.

agreed based on tape, I like Maker better, much better ball handler, battles harder in the paint.

After reading about Bender and Maker, I prefer to not use our #3 pick on Bender. He probably won't be around for #16, so *shrugs*.

I like Maker, but the question is, which pick do we use on him? Certainly not #3, but is it #16 or #23? If we wait until the 2nd round, current trends suggest he will be gone by then.

gyso